POST-MORTEM: NIE-47, 'COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS IN ASIA THROUGH MID-1953',, PUBLISHED 31 OCTOBER 1952; NIE-55/1, 'COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA', PUBLISHED 30 JULY 1952; AND NIE-58, 'RELATIO

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000400060030-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2006
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: December 4, 1952
• Content Type: MF

ued For Release 2006/10/19: CIA-RDP79R00971A00040O66QS30-4
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SECRET
SECURITY INFORMATION
CETRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY t'
4 December 1952
- EM0RA11DUTM F : 2*. Allan ins (OIR)
OF 'I ' E OF NATIOUJAL ESTIMPLTES
aptain John A. Holbrook, USN (JIG)
,lonel Jack E. Thos as, USAF (AFOIN-2A)
Optain Allan L. Reed, USN (ONI)
Colonel Gerald F. Lillaard, USA (G-2)
SUBJECT : 'That Mortem: NIE-17, "C armnist Capabilities
and Intentions in Asia Through Mid-1953x",
published 31 October 1952; NIE-55/`l, "Caa atmist
Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action
in Korea", published 30 July 1952; and ME-58,
"Relations Between the Chinese Conuiunist Regime
and the USSR: Their Present Character and
Probable Future Courses", published 10 September
1952
Rr' 'ERENCE : Procedure for Reducing Intelligence Deficiencies
in NIE's, dated 3 June 1952
1. The attached List of Intelligence Deficiencies revealed
in the preparation of NIE-47, NIE-55/x., and NIE-.58, are submitted
for your consideration in accordance with referenced procedure.
2. Please have your representative :cot with us at 10:00
Tuesday, December 16, in Rocn 146 South Building.
Distribution near
D st.Director Adm. 25X1
41
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
LIST CF IGENCE DEFICIENCIES
OF NIE'S &7j 0A AND
4 December 1952
IN TFiE a PARATICN
In the preparation of NIE's 47, 55/1, and 58, several
intelligence deficiencies vmre revealed. These deficiencies
are of varying importance. For the most part, they are related
to three general questions : what are the political and economic
effects of the Korean war on Communist China, how do the USSR
and Communist China jointly administer and maintain the war
effort in Korea, and what is the precise nature of Sino-Soviet
political relations?
The following; outline specifies the points on which No's
47, 55/'1, and 58, were weakened by the lack of adequate intel-
ligence. Many of these items have previously been cited in
the post mortem on SE-2?, some are weaknesses which the IAC
agencies are currently in the process of correcting, and certain
of the items may be of an "unkncnrable" nature. We feel, never--
thelees, that examination of these weaknesses may reveal new
procedures for improving existing intelligence on these questions.
The items are not listed in any order of proposed pariority, and
they are not to be regarded as intelligence requirements for
collection purposes.
De Political and F a Effect of-the K Man War
Communist China
I. Jhat has been the effect of the Korean war in Cormunist^on:
a. Popular support of the regime?
b. Popular attitudes toward the USSR? US? Japan?
Chinese Nationalists?
c. National consciousness
d. Class structure?
o. Party structure and discipline?
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Iwo,
2. U hat has been the effect to date of the Korean war
in Communist China on:
a,
b.
The viability of the economy?
The rehabilitation and expansion of productive
capacity?
The economic dependence on the USSR? On what
terms has Cornuniat mina been receiving economic
aid from the USSR?
n _ ~B: The SineAoviet U1ar Effo t Korea
h-& 4 Ji4k d v ~a~ t' ,a dew
tion of the Korean war?
What is the relation of the soviet Air Force to the
Korean war and the CCAF? ''hat combat experience have
CCAF pilots actually had? ':ghat degreo of combat pro-
ficiency have CCAF pilots demonstrated in Korea?
What in the Siao-Soviet capability to support:
(a) intensified hostilities, and (b) a general war
in the Far East?
a. :ghat is the productive capacity of the Soviet
Far East? Of Communist China?
b. What are the capabilities of the Soviet supply
channels into Asia? The capability of the Trans--
Siberian RR and of the P?!anchu ri an We? Other
supply channels?
c. What effect would a prolonged and intensified
war effort in Korea have upon Corrninist China's
economy-?
d. What capability does Communist China have to support
a prolonged and intensive air offensive in Korea?
How large, and where, are Communist China's aviation
POL stockpiles?
e. Where are Soviet Far East stockpiles located, and
what is their level?
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f. ?that is the amphibious capability of the Soviet
Far East forces, particularly with respect to
large unit and combined operations training?
6. How important is Comnnunist China's eaonomW in the total
Communist economic support of the forean war?
7. On what terms has Communist China been receiving mili-
tary aid from the USSR?
C. e a of vie }b t cal 921AM229
8. What are Co mnuni.st intentions with respect to an armistice
in Korea? Is there any divergence of view, Chinese and
Soviet, on this question?
9. '!hat influence does the USSR exert in the key centers
of the Chinese Communist regime?
a. In the regime's security agencies? ArMr? Party?
Government? Economy?
b, What key personalities in the regime, if any, may
be said to be tThseovites "?
10. 11hat influence (political, economic, and military) does
the USSR exert in the border areas of Clmiunist China?
a. What is the nature of political relations among
Co iunist China, the USSR, and Mongolia?
b. ''hat influence does the USSR (or .1ongolia) exert
in 13snehuria? In Inner .rngolia? In Sinkiang?
11. What relations of primary influence exist between
Co munist China and the US:"R?
a. In doctrine concerning revolutions in Asia?
b. In the strategic direction of Communist activities
in Southeast Asia? in Japan?
o. In North Korea? To what degree has the presence
of Chinese Communist troops affected Soviet influence
there?
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12. To what degree9 if any, are the Chinese Communists
more impatient and aggressive concerning foreign
policy ambitious than the Soviets?
D. Other Quests s
The following intelligence weaknesses were also revealed
in the preparation of IM- Is 47, 55/L, and 513:
13. To what degree does public oninion in Communist China
coniditon the regimes determination of policy?
14. What is the state of Communist China's air defenses
in Manchuria and north China? Elsewhere in China?
To what extent would a. redeployment of the COAF Improve
these defenses?
15. What trends exist in Communist China's armed force
mobilization programs? Are the armed forces growing
larger, smaller. or remaining static in their numerical
strength?.
16. What phasing Programs havu been set for the modernization
of Chinese Comriunist tamed forces with ?aviet equipment?
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