PREPARATION OF MILITARY ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000400050004-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: March 19, 1971
• Content Type: MEMO

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SUBJECT: Preparation of Military Estimates
Though the present cycle of military estimates is still a good
way from completion, the time is already close at hand to begin on
next year's papers. As to their format and content, we have been in
contact with Mr. Carter of the White House Staff, who has undertaken
to collect ideas and give them to us. We suggested various possibilities
for the next 11-8 and 11-3: complete papers which would repeat most of
what was in the last ones, with such revisions and additions as might
be necessary; Memoranda to Holders which would confine themselves
to such revisions and additions; or perhaps short texts consisting of
new material, with the old set forth at length in Annexes. Carter has
undertaken to let us know, in two weeks or so, which of these or other
alternatives he and his colleagues would prefer. He hopes to get the
views of Mr. Kissinger.
Meanwhile I would like to submit a few recommendations about
the process of producing these estimates. We have conducted the
business, during the past year, in general accord with your memorandum
to me of May 4, 1970. Over the course of the year there has been a good
deal of trial and error and of modification in procedures, as was to be
expected. The papers are getting out, eventually, but they are inordinately
delayed. In part this is because of their great length and complexity, but
they take far longer than is justified by this factor. There have been some
difficulties about the relationship between the Board and the task force
set up to draft the papers, and about the place of the ONE Staff in the
process. I believe that we can refine the procedures, reduce some of
the confusion, and get the job done much more expeditiously next time.
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In your memorandum the Board, and especially the Board
Chairman, was given continued responsibility "for producing a
final Agency draft", and they took this responsibility seriously.
Yet the "preparation and staffing" of what was initially interpreted
to be the entire draft save for the Summary Conclusions was
entrusted to analysts from the Directorates of Intelligence and of
Science and Technology. (The ONE Staff was, at first, wholly
excluded from the process.) The drafters felt some difficulty in
deciding how far they were responsible to themselves, to their own
superiors, or to the Board Chairman in matters relating to the
structure and form of the paper. It would be well, I think, to
reaffirm the clear responsibility of the Board and the Board Chairman
in these matters.
Clearly it will continue to be essential that large parts of
the estimates -- the descriptive, technical, and analytical parts --
be initially drafted by analysts from the Directorates. The device
of a task force drawn from the Directorates is useful, partly because
it facilitates arriving at a CIA position. Nevertheless, the procedure
of this past cycle, in which the task force drafted the entire estimate
and then, because the Board found the result inadequate, redrafted it
sometimes two or three or more times, was unnecessarily wasteful
of the time of all concerned. Moreover, the members of the task
forces have other duties than drafting NIE's; they are sometimes
called off for work on NSSM's or other matters to which they or
their superiors give higher priority, and this contributes to delays.
The ONE Staff is experienced in writing NIE's, and its time is at
the disposal of the Board.
Some of these troubles can be taken care of, I believe, if
when an estimate is begun the Board Chairman and the Board meet
with members of the task force and of the ONE Staff to draw up
Terms of Reference and determine in detail or in general how the
paper is to be constructed. The Board Chairman should then assign
initial drafting responsibility for sections of the paper to the task
force, the ONE Staff, or others as may be appropriate. It might
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be useful if members of the ONE Staff could be members of the
task force; at least they ought to be recognized in a function of
liaison between the Board Chairman and the task force during the
process of drafting.
When initial drafts have come in there is still a good deal
of redrafting and modifying needed to produce a reasonably coherent
and structured paper. This part of the task should be entrusted
primarily to the Board Chairman and the ONE Staff. They would of
course work with the advice and assistance of the task force, but
the task force need not undertake all of the actual rewriting. I should
observe in this connection that our working relationships with the
working levels this past year have been generally very good.
Much of the process I have suggested above represents in
fact what has been arrived at as we progressed through the various
papers. I believe nevertheless that it would be desirable to formalize
something along the line of these suggestions in another memorandum
from you, to supersede and elaborate upon that of last year. I would
be glad to draft such a memorandum if you wish. Meanwhile, however,
some of these suggestions need further explanation, based upon a
fuller account of how things have worked this year; I would like to
talk about this to you at your convenience.
STAT
ABBOT SMITH
Director
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