THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: BALAGUER BALLING THE CAT (ONE DISTRIBUTION ONLY)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001000030017-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 1, 2006
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: August 12, 1966
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2006/11/01: CIA-RDP79R00967AO01000030017-0
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S-E-C R-E-T
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE A G E N C Y
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
12 August 1966
STAFF NOTE
SUBJECT: The Dominican Republic: Balaguer Belling the Cat
(ONE Distribution Only)
NOTE TO THE BOARD
I has suggested that the attached would be
useful subject matter for a Board discussion. We deal here
only with the aspect of the Dominican situation which we
regard as most worrisome for the shorteun future. A good
general wrap-ups produced by OCI on 5 August,, is available
in the Reading Room.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
S-E-C -R-E-T downgrading and
declassification
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iqaw~
S-E-C-R-E-T
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE A G E N C Y
OPTICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
12 August 1966
STAFF NOTE
SUBJECT: The Dominican Republic: Balaguer Belling the Cat
1. The first six weeks of President Balaguer's term of
office have passed calmly. The next six weeks will probably
be less calm,, and the period after late September -- when the
last of the Inter-American Peace Force (IAPF) is scheduled to
leave -- may become very tense indeed.
2. Balagzer has now made clear by his actions that he
meant what he said about u dertaking a transformation of the
military establishment. In changes aimed at reducing the power
of ultra-conservatives in the officer corps? he has ordered the
transfer into the army of some air force ground combat troops
and has directed that the tank force be shifted from one command
to another. He has replaced the chief of police with a trusted
associate. He has also chosen as his own military aide an am-
bitious officer who is generally considered a Trujilloist and is
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regarded with suspicion by the defense minister and the service
chiefs -- all appointees of Provisional President Garcia Godoy.
These moves by Baleguer seem to be only preliminary to more ex-
tensive -- and more delicate -- changes.
3. The Dominican military establi tment* is certainly
not the throw-back,, gorilla outfit it was in Trujillo's time;
neither has it suddenly became a collection of honest, dutiful,
imaginative, cleancut, loyal professionals. The persistence of
the old ways has been illustrated by tough Tony Imbert's recent
cycle of visits (clcarlf for no goad purpose) to various mili-
tary establishments. It has also been shown by the behavior of
an air force major in the town of Barehona vi-Lo last weekend
arrested the secretary-general and several other medbers of
Juan Bosch's Dominican Revolutionary Party; the major evidently
figured that if these folk weren't the same as Communists, they
were just as dangerous.
4. Balaguer obviously realizes that there is some risk in
the course he has embarked upon; he has not committed himself to
his is a big establishment in a small country. Total number
of military persoflnel is nearly 19,000. In addition, 'there
is the National Police with about. B.,500.
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S-E-C R-E-T
any specific blueprint or time-table. He has
, however, indicated
his hope of accomplishing far-reaching changes in the military
before the IAPF departs. We see two points of concern here: one
is that he may be over-optimistic about how far and fast he can
go without provoking a dangerous reaction; the other is that im-
plementing some changes of the sort he seems to have in mind would
likely require more than five or six weeks.
5. Elements in the military are bound to become restive
as they see not only their numbers, but also their privileges and
prerogatives, cut back. Moreover, with the departure of the IAPF,
the extreme left is likely to renew activity, including the per-
petration of violent incidents, and certain of the military
leaders may want to move more forcefully than Balaguer deems
appropriate against leftist groups. In sum, we think there will
inevitably be some danger of a military coup attempt and that
this danger might abruptly increase
if, for instance, Wessin
y Wessin or certain of the rebel military officers who have been
sent abroad suddenly reappeared on the Dominican scene.
-3-
S-E-C R-E-T
Approved For Release 2006/11/01 : CIA-RDP79R00967A001000030017-0