PEACE AND CONFLICT IN SUDANIC AFRICA
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
S
Document Page Count:
32
Document Creation Date:
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date:
December 12, 2006
Sequence Number:
4
Case Number:
Publication Date:
May 19, 1972
Content Type:
MEMO
File:
Attachment | Size |
---|---|
CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5.pdf | 1.19 MB |
Body:
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79RO09 000500010004-5
Secret
OFFICE OF
NATIONAL ESTIMATES
MEMORANDUM
Peace and Conflict in Sudanic Africa
Secret
19 May 1972
Copy No.
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved Felease 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 7
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and declassification
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
Approved.For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AQ 500010004-5
SECRET
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
19 May 1972
SUBJECT: Peace and Conflict in Sudanic Africa*
This memorandum discusses the origins, current
status, and probable future course of three African
insurgencies. The battlegrounds -- in Chad, Ethiopia,
and Sudan -- are remote areas on the periphery of
virtually everything. At the moment fighting has
ceased in Sudan, the conflict in Chad is at a low ebb,
and the guerrilla war in the Ethiopian province of
Eritrea drags on. But the root causes of conflict --
the racial, cultural, and religious divergencies and
political aspirations for separation -- remain potent.
Hence, we are not sanguine about an early resolution
of any of them.
These conflicts, of themselves, are of marginal
importance to the rest of the world. But, for a variety
of reasons, the US, France, the USSR, and China, have
some interests at stake. In the case of the US, a major
communications base, Kagnew Station, is located in the
heart of the insurgent area of Ethiopia, and is likely
to be affected by events there. Arabs and Israelis are
involved in a complicated fashion, and there is a danger
that the quarrels of Sudanic Africa may be caught up in,
or become a part of, any future major outbreak in the
Middle East.
This memorandum was prepared in the office of National Estimates
and discussed with appropriate offices in CIA, which are in agree-
ment with its principal judgments.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
doctasrificallon
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
Approved. For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79ROO967AQ 500010004-5
*? SECRET
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. THE SETTING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
II. THE ROOTS OF CONFLICT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Race . . . . . . . . . . .
Religion and Culture . . .
Political Separatism . . .
III. THE FATE OF THE INSURGENCIES . . . . . . . . . . 11
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
The Eritrean Insurgency . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
IV. EXTERNAL INFLUENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
20
1 1
V. SOME UNCERTAINTIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
The Ethiopian Succession . . . . . . . . . . . 28
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79ROO967AO00500010004-5
IVORY
COAST
UPPER
VOLTA
ALGERIA
r, Betgr,do ]
&TALY
,Corsica
AkBANIA
tl Sardinia
tee,
Sicily
Yalta
BULLGAR A
Crete
fed'ferrareae? Sea LEBANO
Benghazi lexand a
CairayaNi 1
aedayfed~
~ MI.
UNITED
i ARAB
REPUBLIC
Addis
Ababa
Baghdad.
IRAQ
Caspi
\ Sea
AI 8 6 h~
WAIT
y 1 e sran`:`~'t
~ D C u
AT AR
RRr~IAC
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
Approved.For Release 2006/1 I 1P79R00967AQ P500010004-5
lft~ AFC '
1. Across the widest part of Africa from the Atlantic
Coast of Mauritania to the Ethiopian province of Eritrea on
the Red Sea is an ethnic frontier, the meeting ground of Arab
and Berber peoples of the North and black Africans of the
South.* Cutting through the same general area, and in places
coinciding with the ethnic border, is a line of cultural and
religious demarcation, setting apart an essentially Moslem area
from Christian or animist lands. National boundaries tend to
ignore both these lines. Indeed, the separation of peoples
and cultures is nowhere neat or clear. Clusters of Arabs have
lived for centuries well south of the ethnic border, and Islamic
missionaries have proselytized millions of blacks in parts of
East and West Africa.
2. In Sudanic Africa religiously homogeneous areas are
generally reasonably peaceful, even if racially divided. This
applies to much of the western Sahara, where Islam prevails in
Sudanic Africa, as used in this paper, refers to the coun-
tries in this band -- Mauritania, MaZi, Niger, Chad, Sudan,
and Ethiopia.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-R?P79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved_For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AQQP500010004-5
SECRET
both black and Arab-Berber communities. The sparseness of
population probably contributes to the relative tranquility,
as does the policy of deliberate neglect practiced by black
governments of Mali and Niger towards the white Tuareg nomads
who roam the desert, ignoring frontiers and administrators.
In Mauritania the white Maures (the Arab-Berber majority)
control national political life, but rely on the better educated
blacks to man the bureaucracy. The western Sahara is by no
means devoid of political tension, for there are fierce personal
and factional rivalries. The point is that racial, religious,
and cultural distinctions are not the highly charged issues
they are in the eastern half of Sudanic Africa.
3. This paper deals mainly with the three countries at the
eastern end of Sudanic Africa -- Chad, Sudan, and Ethiopia. There,
a mixture of separatist aspirations and cultural, religious, and
racial antagonisms have brought on prolonged and bitter guerrilla
wars. At the moment the conflict in Chad has subsided, and a truce
in Sudan has brought a halt to the fighting there, but suspicions
have not been allayed and tensions are still high. The primitive
folk in this remote part of the world have little concept of
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AVOO 500010004-5
j,./ SECRET
nationhood or any other modern institutions, and tend to identify
themselves by race, creed, and cultural affiliation. Moreover, a
variety of outside influences -- Arab and Israeli as well as those
of the major powers -- makes the situation quite complex.
II. THE ROOTS OF CONFLICT
Race
4. Fundamental to the conflicts in Chad and Sudan, and a
lesser ingredient in Eritrea, is the long-standing mutual dislike
of Arab northerners and black African southerners. This stems from
the master-slave relationships of earlier times. Until well into
the twentieth century, Arab slavers raided black communities in
southern Chad and southern Sudan. To a good many blacks as far
11
south as Tanzania and Zaire, the word Arab is still synonomous with
slave trader. In the past decade, interventions by North Africans
in black African affairs, e.g., Egyptian and Sudanese involvement
in the Congolese and Nigerian civil wars, Algerian backing for
Cameroonian rebels, and Libyan support to Chadian insurgents, have
kept alive the old fears. Even Leopold Senghor, the urbane poet-
President of Senegal, in a speech in Morocco last fall discussed
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-R DP79R00967AQ500010004-5
Vwe SECRET
Arab-black relations in terms of the colonizers and the colonized.
Actual skin color makes little difference. For example, many
Sudanese who call themselves Arab are as black as the Bantus
and Nilotics of southern Sudan. Nonetheless, race is a sensi-
tive issue, since a good many Africans tend to see the Sudanic
African conflicts as clashes between racial groups.
Religion and Culture
5. Misunderstandings and discrimination in religious and
cultural matters are probably at least as important as racial
antagonisms in the origins of the Sudanic insurgencies. It is
rather difficult, however, to separate these factors from the
whole catalog of complaints lodged by the disaffected. For
example, did the southern Sudanese turn to violence primarily
because they hated the Arabs? Because government Islamization
policies threatened Christian and traditional forms of worship
and social organization? Or because they felt relegated to
second-class political status in a nation they had no part in
establishing? In the southern Sudan it was all of this.
6. Similarly in Chad, a mirror image of Sudan, Christian
and animist blacks lorded it over a politically impotent and
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79ROO967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12: CIA-RDP79R00967AQQp500010004-5
~,.. SECRET a
educationally inferior Arab Moslem community. The Chadian
ruling elite engaged in no deliberate discrimination against Islam,
but took a rather cavalier attitude to Moslem sensitivities.
Enraged rebel leaders at an early stage in the revolt toyed with
the idea of declaring a Holy War, and appealing to the world commu-
nity of Moslems for assistance. In Chad as in Ulster, ancient
religious antagonisms are easy to arouse, and chance incidents often
appear to the participants as religious persecution.
7. Sectarian considerations had little to do with the origins
of the Eritrean insurgency, but have since assumed greater importance.
At the start of the revolt in the early 1960s, the Eritrean rebels
included both Christians and Moslems, reflecting the divided religious
affiliations of the province of Eritrea, and indeed in Ethiopia itself.
Over the years the rebel movement has'taken on an almost exclusively
Moslem coloration, in part because recruiting efforts have been more
productive among Moslem youth than in the Christian community, in
part because the rulers of Eritrea are Amhara Christians, and also
because the exiled rebel leadership found sanctuary in Damascus
Baghdad, and Tripoli, and absorbed a good deal of Moslem militancy
from their hosts.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AQQD500010004-5
SECRET I"
Political Separatism
8. An additional ingredient in all of the Sudanic African
conflicts is the inclination of the dissaffected to seek political
separation from the dominant group. In pre-colonial times the ethnic
groups lived apart from each other, traded occasionally, and expressed
their disagreements by frequent raids and assaults on "the enemy".
The colonial powers put a stop to tribal and ethnic warfare, but this
kind of enforced pacification did little to instill unifying, national
sentiments. Indeed, it was hardly in the interest of the colonial
administrators to do so. With only limited military support, colonial
officials preserved the peace by keeping mutually antagonistic groups
apart from each other.
9. Independence changed all this. With the abrupt departure
of the British from Sudan and the more gradual French withdrawal from
Chad, colonial restraints were lifted. Inexperienced new governments,
formed from local political elites -- northern Moslems in Sudan,
southern Christians and animists in Chad -- were expected to share
political power in some fashion with more primitive fellow citizens,
who had either had scant contact with the dominant group or who
nursed old grievances against it.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 :CIA-RDP79R00967A500010004-5
SECRET a
10. The post independence histories of Chad and Sudan are
characterized by total misunderstandings between the major ethnic-
cultural groups. In Sudan the northern rulers conceived of national
unity in terms of an. Islamic state, closely linked to the Arab
world. As they saw it, southerners who did not share this view should
be pushed to adopt the customs and outlook of the North. Hence,
Sudanese domestic policies came to include an agressive Islamization
program, the substitution of Arabic for English in schools, the
expulsion of foreign missionaries, and an abrasive military rule
of the laggard southern regions.
11. Southern Sudanese resistance began with a mutiny of
southern army units on the eve of independence. The mutineers
fled to the bush and formed roving bands which became the core
of the developing insurgency. Atrocities committed by both sides
in the South in 1962-1963 hardened attitudes and ruined the efforts
of moderates to find a compromise. The insurgency movement burgeoned
under the name Anya-nya (poisonous insect) and several competing
southern provisional governments sprouted up as expressions of the
separatist aspirations of the major black tribes. For a decade, until
early 1972, northern troops held key towns and lines of communication
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12
SECRETDP79R00967A 500010004-5
in the South, made occasional forays, and suffered from Anya-nya
raids. More than a million refugees, perhaps a quarter of the
population of the South, fled to the jungles and swamps or to
neighboring lands.
12. When independence came to Chad in 1960, the Moslem
half of the population took little note of the event and played only
a minor role in the organization of the new government. Trouble
set in fairly early when the regime assigned non-Moslem blacks
to collect taxes from the Arab Moslems, who had been left alone
by the French. The Moslem revolt, which began as a minor incident
in 1965, gathered momentum, drawing upon the heritage of ethnic
and cultural animosity and the blunders and impositions of the
government. The insurgency never developed much cohesion. Lacking
firm leadership, bands of ragged, poorly armed nomads and farmers
fought in isolated engagements against units of the Chadian, and
later also the French,army. The goals of the insurgents were as
vague as everything else in this struggle. They mainly wanted to
be left alone, and, therefore, sought some sort of autonomy.
13. Developments in Eritrea in the past decade differ markedly
from those in Chad and Sudan. The Eritrean claim to a separate status
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : IA-R P79R00967A"500010004-5
SEC Eq
from Ethiopia stems from its peculiar heritage. There is no
collective memory of past greatness or of lost freedoms. Rather
Eritrean history consists of prolonged obscurity, followed by
subservience to a series of foreign rulers: Turks, Egyptians,
Italians, British, and now Amharas from central Ethiopia. The
colonial experience, particularly the Italian interlude, provided
Eritreans with a greater exposure to the modern world and its ways
than others in Ethiopia had. It is mainly this self-perception of
separateness rather than racial or religious differences which gives
substance to Eritrean aspirations for autonomy or independence.
14. Eritrean dissidence originated as a reaction against the
incorporation of their homeland into the Ethiopian Empire in 1962.*
The movement began with a handful of exiles, and has retained an
elitist character. Over the years it has attracted intellectuals
and students, particularly the unemployed or underemployed, but made
little impact on the general populace. Discontent with Amhara domina-
tion is widespread, but so is apathy. The nationalist slogans of the
rebels do not strike responsive chords. The guerrillas probably number
* Eritrea was dealt to Ethiopia by the UN in 1952. It had a semi-
autonomous, federated status until absorbed into Ethiopia by
Imperial decree in 1962.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-R DP79R00967AQ500010004-5
SECRET
fewer than 2,500, but they are well armed and trained, and are
adept at fending off or eluding a much larger Ethiopian field
force.
III. THE FATE OF THE INSURGENCIES
15. Biafra and Katanga are conspicuous reminders that
separatist causes have not fared well in independent Africa.
There is nothing inevitable about this, but the obstacles to
success of even a well-organized secessionist movement are
formidable. An African government, however inept, commands a
treasury and an armed force and can bestow jobs and favors. It
also claims legitimacy, i.e., recognition by other African govern-
ments. Biafra, for all its advantages in leadership, organization,
and skills, gained official recognition from only a few African
states, and this had something to do with its failure. It is
because all African states are heterogeneous collections of peoples
within illogical boundaries, that the principle of inviolability of
territorial unity of each state is almost universally accepted. Most
African governments fear that secession is contagious, and believe they
are all susceptible.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79ROO967A 500010004-5
SECRET
16. Though the odds are against their success, separatist
movements in Africa are nonetheless generally hard to put down.
This is particularly true in Sudanic Africa, where the distances
between the capital and areas of dissidence are so vast, the
logistics and morale problems of maintaining government troops
in the field so great, and the expenses of counterinsurgency so
crippling. In Sudanic Africa all of the fighting has taken place
on the home ground of the insurgents. In these circumstances,
guerrilla forces need not be very competent or well organized to
keep the conflict alive. Indeed, the most impressive facet of these
lackluster wars is their duration; 17 years in the Sudan, around 9
years in Eritrea, and some 7 years in Chad.
17. By every other criterion, these have been dismal, inept
performances by all participants. There has been a good deal of
killing and destruction, generally in a purposeless way. It is
difficult to gauge success or failure of campaigns, because an
air of confusion has pervaded since the beginning. On the in-
surgent side the lines of command are vague, leaders are often
more involved in factional disputes with rivals than in combat-
ing the enemy, and the bands of guerrillas are normally out of
contact or communication with their fellows.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79ROO967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12: CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
41 %W SECRET
Chad
18. The insurgency in Chad is now in a most uncertain status.
A year ago it appeared to be withering away. French troops brought
in from the metropole and from Djibouti in 1968 had served as cadres
in the Chadian Army, and as special units. After they had chased
down and defeated the major guerrilla bands, President Tombalbaye
offered an amnesty and decreed a series of reforms which belatedly
gave the Moslems a greater chance to participate in national life.
New administrative arrangements afforded greater local autonomy, the
central government incorporated some of the previously jailed Moslem
elite, and plans were drawn up for development in the Moslem lands.
19. The Chadian spring of 1971 was followed by a brief summer
and an early frost. Tombalbaye was disturbed and frustrated by
evidence of arms shipments from Libya to remnants of the rebels.
He therefore used a minor incident of pamphleteering in the Chadian
capital in August to break relations with Libya. In response the
Libyans stepped up aid to the insurgents and recognized them as the
true Chadian Government. By early 1972 there were signs of growing
strength in the ranks of the Moslem rebels in northern and eastern
Chad and a worried French general arranged to bring in a company of
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
Nw SECRET ,=IV
reinforcements from France. Inflammatory broadcasts from Tripoli
helped revive the spirit of Moslem resistance. Amidst these ominous
developments, the Sudanese Government began to cooperate with Chad
to cut off the Libyan arms flow, and French diplomatic pressures on
Chad and Libya brought about a kind of detente. Governmental rela-
tions were restored and the Libyans ceased overt support to the rebels.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
.Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
,,, SECRET
have been lost, but this is a very touchy issue. Pompidou is
committed to the principle of disengagement and is gradually re-
ducing the French military presence. If fighting were to resume
on a large scale which led to many French casualties, he would
probably reconsider the French neo-colonial military role. He
would not, for example, send French draftees to Chad. Without
a strong French military and technical presence in Chad, it would
be very difficult for the regime now in power to preserve national
unity.
22. The civil war in Sudan was much more extensive in terms
of people involved, ferocity of fighting, and intractability than
the other Sudanic conflicts. For about the last 10 years the war
has been a stalemate. From time to time successive regimes in
Khartoum have made gestures toward ending the conflict but each
time mutual distrust prevailed.
23. President Numayri, unlike his predecessors, has actually
managed to bring the fighting to a halt. Aided by Emperor Haile
Selassie, and benefiting from the strength he gained from vigorously
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/1-211 CI RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
squashing squashing a leftist coup attempt, Numayri persuaded Anya-nya leaders
to meet with Sudanese officials in Addis Ababa in late 1971. The
southerners arrived in a suspicious and cautious mood, but were
gradually convinced of northern sincerity. The agreements signed at
Addis in March of this year provide for considerable southern autonomy
within a national political framework. Some 6,000 of the Anya-nya
guerrillas are to join with an equal number of northerners to form a
southern contingent of the Sudanese Army. Other arrangements are
left to Numayri and joint commissioners.
24. If goodwill can be sustained and the instrumentalities
of reunification carried through promptly, there is a fair chance
that peace can be preserved. President Numayri and others are
stumping the hinterland to drum up support for reconciliation. The
Sudanese cabinet, which includes some southerners, and the ruling
party, which is generally responsive to the President, are for it.
Also, the Ethiopian and Ugandan governments, which had covertly
supported the Anya-nya for years, are publicly endorsing the accords.
They have withdrawn their liaison agents, cancelled training programs,
and cut off the arms flow.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
= SECRET
25. But reconciliation is still in a very delicate stage,
and could be wrecked quite easily. A good deal depends on how
long Numayri can hold power. Sudanese politics are normally
turbulent, and previous Presidents who appeared to be firmly in
control were overturned suddenly. There is no assurance that
Numayri's policies would prevail after his departure, for there
is a considerable reservoir of anti-southern sentiment in the
North, particularly in the Army and among pro-Egyptian factions.
These groups, and the Presidents of Libya and Egypt, had hoped
that Sudan would join the Confederation of Arab Republics (CAR),
and seek closer relations with members of the Arab League. The
reconciliation scheme now fairly well rules out such developments.
Nervous southerners would not stand for membership in the CAR.
The price of internal peace in the Sudan, then, is some degree of
estrangement from the Arab World.
26. Looming ahead are massive problems of resettling a million
or more southerners, now abroad or in the bush far from their old
villages. Before the South can begin to participate in national life,
it will require help in devising political forms and economic infrastruc-
ture. The meager resources of the Khartoum government are grossly
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
,Approved For Release 2006/12/1 DP79R00967AO00500010004-5
SEUff-
Nwe
inadequate, but foreign humanitarian agencies will probably
provide considerable help.
27. Most important now, and in the long run, is the atti-
tude of the Sudanese. This is the big opportunity, which may not
present itself again. There is widespread relief in the South that
the shooting has stopped. But it is too early to judge whether or
not there is enough momentum to carry through a real reconciliation.
It is clear from the reluctance of refugees to return that there is
very little mutual trust or confidence. At best.it will be an uneasy
truce endangered by efforts of recalcitrants to stir up trouble. Re-
version to civil war seems less likely than a long confused period of
attempts by two very diverse cultural groups to find agreement.
The Eritrean Insurgency
28. In the aftermath of the Addis peace conference, a
number of Ethiopians are wondering why their own guerrilla war
in Eritrea cannot be resolved by negotiations. It cannot because
Haile Selassie has no intention of bargaining with those he considers
bandits; because he still hopes to crush the rebels militarily; and
because the Eritrean rebels in contrast to the Anya-nya do not
represent a disaffected population.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
llftw SECRET
29. Clearly, Haile Selassie sees the Eritrean Liberation
Front (ELF) problem as a manageable one, to be tackled with
counterinsurgency in the field and diplomacy in Arab and Commu-
nist capitals. The Ethiopian Army's Second Division and the
Israeli-trained emergency police have been moderately successful
in combat, and diplomatic appeals to China, Sudan, Saudi Arabia,
and the two Yemens probably have had some effect in cutting down
the arms and training available to ELF units. The insurgency
goes on, much as before, with cyclical bursts of activity, followed
by months of dormancy. So long as the Sudanese Government forbids
ELF transit and safehaven, the rebels are inconvenienced, though
not critically hampered. In short, Ethiopian counter efforts have
not had a major effect in curbing the ELF.
30. The ELF leadership, most of which lives in exile in Arab
capitals, still has access to funds, facilities, arms, and training.
At the moment it is badly factionalized into two or three main groups,
which are dominated by strong-willed, feud-prone personalities.
Attempts to bring the rival groups together have failed, and the
splits have grown to the point that factions of ELF have begun
battling each other in the mountains of Eritrea.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
.Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
SECRET v
31. Imperial Armed Forces are probably sufficiently large
and competent to wipe out the insurgency if they were so directed.
This would require the concentration of armed force now deployed
elsewhere in Ethiopia, and a better command structure. To Haile
Selassie the risks of this, in terms of a potential challenge by
the military to his own position, are greater than the prospective
achievements. If the Emperor chose to grant some greater autonomy
to Eritrea and provide more development assistance, the ELF would
be greatly undercut and weakened. But in practical terms, the Addis
Government would not want to seem to be rewarding dissidence, or to
favor a non-Amharic province. Hence the counterinsurgency will
probably drag on for years, until the ELF either withers away (which
it shows no sign of) or makes a concerted move against Imperial
authority at some moment of internal crisis in Ethiopia.
32. The governments of Sudanic Africa and the leaders of the
dissident movements are highly sensitive to pressures and influences
from the outside world. All of the great powers and some of the
lesser ones are at least marginally involved in the troubles of Sudanic
Africa. The US communications base in Eritrea -- Kagnew Station -- and US
- 20 -
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
SECRET
11W
military aid to Ethiopia are important considerations in the course
of events there. China recently established diplomatic relations
with Ethiopia and is negotiating some rather large economic aid pro-
jects with Ethiopia and Sudan. The USSR, once the main arms supplier
to Sudan, is trying to regain some lost influence there and compete
with China and the US for influence in Addis Ababa. The French are
heavily involved in the affairs of all countries from Chad westward to
the Atlantic and in the East they govern the Territory of the Afars
and Issas. This small colony includes Djibouti, the terminus of
Ethiopia's rail link to the sea.
33. At the moment all of the outside powers are acting in a
very cautious fashion. The truce in Sudan and the restoration of
relations between Chad and Libya have temporarily lowered tensions
in the area. So far as one can tell, none of the external powers
is engaged in rekindling the conflicts. From the US point of view,
the government in Sudan and the policies it espouses are as good as
can be expected; the insurgency in Eritrea, though worrisome, has not
affected US personnel or property; and the Ethiopian Government is
still a friend of the US.
34. As for the Communist powers, the Chinese are trying to
ingratiate themselves with the legitimate governments in Sudan and
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
.Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
SECRET
Ethiopia, and are not now sponsoring any dissident factions. In
the past Peking had provided training and arms to the ELF. They
are advertising themselves as fellow sufferers in the oppressed
underdeveloped world, without great power pretensions. So long
as their economic aid is useful to the Africans, and they keep
out of mischief, the Chinese are likely to build influence in
these countries, at the expense of the USSR, and perhaps also
of the US.
35. The Soviets are still recovering from the bruises of
last summer when Numayri crushed the coup attempt of the Sudanese
Communist Party, executed a number of party leaders, and hinted
that the Soviets bore some responsibility for the revolt. Relations
between Moscow and Khartoum are still cool, and, barring another
leftist.coup, it will be a long time before Russians are trusted
in Sudan.
36. Soviet relations with Addis Ababa are clouded by their
arms assistance to Somalia, the traditional foe of Ethiopia. The
continuing supply of military goods and training to the Somali Army
is upsetting to Haile Selassie, but he values his non-aligned status
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
,Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
SECRET,,
and hopes to stimulate a little competition among the US, China,
and the USSR for economic aid to his backward country. The
Russians are not yet particularly forthcoming, though they are
worried about the new large Chinese official presence, and would
like to get the Americans out of Kagnew Base.
37. In general the USSR is not particularly happy about the
eastern Sudanic governments and would welcome a change in any of
the capitals. But they have very limited assets in terms of organized
local sympathizers, and perhaps at this time they lack the incentive
to take on the risks of encouraging political change. In a broader
sense, the USSR is expanding its interests and activities in the
Indian Ocean area, including the Red Sea. If new political turmoil
arose in Ethiopia or Sudan, or if the insurgencies flared up, the
resulting tensions could bring the Soviets more directly onto the
scene. If the Soviets were to take a more assertive posture, the
conflict of interests between the USSR and the US in this area would
become much more obvious,and touchy situations could arise.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/1 IA-Rp P79ROO967AO00500010004-5
V. SOME UNCERTAINTIES
44. All of the Sudanic African governments are fragile
creations, highly dependent upon single strong rulers. The re-
placement of Tombalbaye in Chad by a more radical, or even a
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-R?P79ROO967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
SECRET
pro-Communist chief of state would not be a matter of much concern
to the US. Chad is not important. On the other hand, the removal
of Numayri or of Haile Selassie could change the situation to one
less favorable to US interests. If Numayri were succeeded by a
figure more sympathetic to Moscow or Peking, or Cairo, it would
have an unsettling effect on the whole area. The hard-won Sudanese
unity would be very difficult to maintain; indeed, a new government
might deliberately scrap the southern agreements. In addition, a
leftist regime in Khartoum would be more likely to furnish aid to
the Eritrean guerrillas. The US has no formal diplomatic relations
with Sudan and few other interests there.
The Ethiopian Succession
45. Probably the major uncertainty hanging over this area is
the shape and character of post-Haile Selassie Ethiopia. The
Emperor is vigorous, but he is approaching 80. The Crown Prince,
the constitutionally designated successor, has no experience in
governing, and is not consulted in any way. At the Emperor's death,
the Crown Prince would almost certainly be accepted nominally as the
new Emperor, but might face a turbulent situation very quickly. The
pent-up frustrations of the modernist elite, the personal ambitions
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79ROO967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
SECRET
of a score or so of generals and feudal nobles, and the latent
tribal discontents of the subject peoples of the Empire would
be manifested in some fashion. This could range from peaceful
delegations to the new Emperor to violent attempts to remove him
and change the form of government. Almost certainly, the Eritrean
guerrillas would consider the Emperor's death the long-awaited
moment for an all-out drive to gain control of their province.
Such a move would probably fail, unless the Imperial forces in
Eritrea fell into disarray, or were withdrawn to the capital to
serve some political purpose.
46. Even if the Imperial transition proves to be more orderly
than the above scenario suggests, there will be some anxious moments
and difficult decisions for US policy makers. In the changed situa-
tion US interests might be more difficult to determine. For years US
advisors have urged Imperial authorities to adopt more modern methods,
but if, in a new regime, an internal division were to arise between
modernists and traditionalists in Ethiopia, both factions would probably
expect support from the US. If tribal or regional dissidence arose,
the US would be called on to provide more military aid to the central
government. In, the event that the Eritrean guerrillas gained control
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5
Approved For Release 2006/12/12: CIA-RDP79R00967A000500010004-5
? SECRET
even briefly over the areas in Eritrea where US installations
are located, local US officials would face a very dicey situation.
47. At the death of the Emperor the question is likely to arise
of the degree of US interest in, and willingness to become involved
in, the affairs of Ethiopia. In part the response to this will de-
pend on how important the US considers the communications base at
Kagnew. Already the size of the US contingent is being reduced.
But, some of the activities carried out at Kagnew would be difficult
or expensive to duplicate, and are too important to drop altogether.
Presumably, therefore, Kagnew will have some importance to the US
over the next few years as a communications facility. In addition
are general considerations of US friendly relations with Ethiopia,
and the costs of preserving these. Ethiopia, in and of itself, is
sometimes an embarrassment, but there are few others states in the
area willing to associate themselves so forthrightly with the US.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2006/12/12 : CIA-RDP79R00967AO00500010004-5