N.E.S.C. INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS AD HOC WORKING GROUP, SOVIET AIR DEFENSES IN MID-1962

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00961A000900070014-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 27, 2000
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: July 24, 1958
• Content Type: PAPER

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WOfktNO D] AFT 24 July 1958
WORKING PAPER
N.E.S.C. INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS
I 1 ! T
AD HOC WORKING GROUP SOVIET AIR DEFENSES IN MID-1962
References: a. Memorandum 30 June 1958
F. Memorandum 11 July 1958
In accordance with reference b, above, an Ad Hoc Working
Group on Soviet Air Defenses in Mid-1962, chaired by the Joint
Staff, with members and advisors invited from all agencies and
JTIB, GMIC, JAEIC and SEC, reviewed appropriate portions of
NIE 11-57, "Sino-Soviet Bloc Air Defense Capabilities Through
Mid-1962" (16 July 1957) from 10 July 1958 to date, for the
purpose of providing the IAC with intelligence assumptions for
the Net Evaluation Sub-Committee.
The Ad Hoc Working Group, after re-examination of
NIE 11-57, believes that most of the NESC Soviet Air Defense
requirements are presently covered by NIE 11-57, and that this
coverage continues to be valid, with exception of the additions,
up-datings and modifications that follow.
Page Paragraph
2 2 Third Sentence: Delete "1300" and substitute
ll1600" .
Last Sentence: Delete "35,000" and substitute
"up to 40,000 to 4,000 feet".
Add at end of Paragraph: "By mid-1962 we
estimate that the Sino-Soviet Bloc fighter
strength will be about 15,000 with approxi-
mately 40% of that number all-weather types."
2 5 Third Line: Delete word "low".
3 11 Third Sentence: Delete and substitute; "We
estimate that the USSR will probably not rrese
its present numerical fighter strength and a
cutback in the number of Soviet manned inter-
ceptors will probably begin prior to mid-1962."
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3 12 Delete last clause and substitute: "By
1960 the Soviets will probably have in full
operation a digital data handling system
for aircraft reporting and control purposes."
6 24 Last Sentence: Delete "15-30 and 10-20"
and substitute: ". . . 16-6 n.m.
respectively, however some models may have
AI radar with search ranges of 15-30 n.m.
and track ranges of 10-20 n.m."
6 25 Add: "There is some evidence that Soviets
may be introducing a new IFF system which
will probably be fully operational by 1960."
7 29-31 NOTE: Should be revised to conform with
NIE 11-5-58 when approved.
8 33 Add to the Table:
SLANT MESH 100-200 n.m. 80-120 n.m.
STRIKE OUT 80-180 n.m. 70-100 n.m.
BIG MESH about 150 n.m. about 100 n.m.
8 34 Second Line: After the word "TOKEN" add:
"(or newer modifications thereof such as
BIG MESH, STRIKE OUT, and SLANT MESH)"
Add to the Table:
BIG MESH/ROCK CAKE about 120 n.r1. about 80 n.m.
SLANT MESH/ROCK CAKE 80-110 n.m. 50-70 n.m.
9 38 Change next to last sentence to read:
"The USSR has been engaged in the development
of automatic data handling devices suitable
for air defense purposes."
Delete the last sentence and substitute:
"It is believed that the Soviets are intro-
ducing such equipment into operational use
and that many key areas have this equipment
at the present time."
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Page Paragraphs
9 4O Second Sentence: Delete all after ". .
microwave frequencies." Substitute for
deleted clause the following sentence:
"Both shipborne and ground-based X-Band
Jamming equipment are in operational use.
Fourth Sentence: Delete sentence beginning
"The vulnerability . .
It
and substitute
the following: "A trend has been noted
towards frequency diversification, reducing
the earlier concentration of frequencies
in the 75-85 me/s, 2610-3100 me/s, and
9200-9500 me/s band.s. This trend includes
the addition of L-Band frequencies near
500 me/s and probably the use of rapidly
changeable frequencies in same radars."
10 43 Add, "By mid-1962 there will be about 285
regiments of fighters in Soviet Air Forces.
Add, "The European Satellites and Communist
China are expected to receive increasing
quantities of AAA guns of the 100 and 57 mm
types. In addition, newer type radar for
warning and control purposes will be allotted
in these countries."
11 47 First Sentence: Delete "500" and substitute
"600". Add, "We estimate that the entire
periphery of the USSR now has early warning
radar. The long standing gaps in peripheral
early warning radar coverage along the Arctic
coast between Dikson and the Chukotski is
now believed to have been filled, though
perhaps not as extensively as in other
areas. The Soviets by mid-1962 will probably
have radar cover for all areas, except for
inland areas of central and eastern Siberia."
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Page Paragraph
11
13
48
57
-1.4
63
14
67
Fourth Sentence: Delete "frequently"
and "up to", and add "or longer".
Add new Last Sentence: "However, with the
anticipated implementation of data handling
equipment, this traffic-handling capacity
is expected to increase to twelve simul-
taneous raids."
Add, "By mid-1962 we estimate that the
static subdistrict, and District Head-
quarters, and major GCI sites will have
underground facilities."
Delete Last Sentence, Add "Field demon-
strations are conducted and air raid
drills are prescribed. There is some
evidence that drills have been conducted
on a full scale, city wide basis. By
mid-1962 we estimate that this type of
defense will be expanded to most major
cities and target areas.
5-16 70-75 incl NOTE: Discussion Of Western. developments
76 (1st
sentence) appears in these sections. It is estimated
that the Soviets will assess Western
developments accurately for just what
they will be. The NESC, presumably, will
be informed fully of the Western air and
missile threat to the Bloc.
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17
Paragraph
77 Change Second Sentence: "Maximum speeds
of about 1200 knots will probably be achieved
by the 1958-1959 day fighter," In the fourth
sentence, change the first word "most" to
"All".
17 78 Delete from last Sentence "60 percent" and
substitute "50 percent".
17 79 Delete last sentence, add "On this basis;
we hold estimated Soviet fighter strength
constant at about 10,000 through mid-1960 at
which time the Soviets will probably gradu-
ally decrease their fighter strength. By
mid-1962 we estimate the Soviet fighter
strength to be slightly over 9,000 aircraft."
21 96 Delete Second Sentence and Substitute:
"We also have evidence that in addition to
the Soviet employment of individual cruisers
and destroyers in air early warning exercises,
Soviet minesweepers are now being adapted
for use as station radar picket ships for
continental early warning."
21 98 Delete last three Sentences and Substitute:
"The limitation imposed by current air-ground
radio communications equipment Is probably
being overcome by use of an air-ground data-
link system. By mid-1962 it is estimated
that this equipment will be in widespread
user'
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22
Paragraph
31 Table 3
WEAPON
14.5 mm AA HMGs
(single, dual,
and quadruple
barrelled)
57 mm AA Gun
M 1950
100 mm AA Gun
M 1949
090 YA RI, l?a"W
Delete Third and Fourth Sentences and
Substitute Following: "By mid-1960 the
air defense control and reporting system
will be passing information in digital
form and computors will be employed to
increase the traffic handling capacity and
to solve the complex problems associated
with ground-controlled intercepts. This
system will be in widespread use within
the USSR and probably in the European
Satellite countries."
Change Table as Follows:
MAXIMUM
WEIGHT OF EFFECTIVE MUZZLE RATE OF
CALIBER PROJECTILE CEILING VELOCITY FIRE
25X4 USAF
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11 48 Substitute new Table herewith:
Bloc Airfields in Mid-1958
Minimum Runway Lengths (feet)
AREA
USSR:
EUROPEAN SATELLITES:
ASIATIC COMMUNIST NATIONS:
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,ooo 5,000
25X4
USAF
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Page 30, Table 2 ESTIMATED PERFORMANCE OF SOVIET MTMA,EPTOR AIRCRAFT (External Fuel)
OPTIMUM
(Calculated in accordance with U.S.. Mil C -5011A Spec except that fuel reserves are reduced to permit a maximum of 20 minutes maximum
endurance at Sea Level and aircraft operate at altitudes permitting maximum Radius)
25X4 USAF FAGOT FRESCO FRESCO J FARMER FLASH- 1958 1958 1959 1962
A&B- C& D LI(BT A FACEPLATE A FITTER AWF- 9 AF-62
FRESCO E is the same-as D but without afterburner and would have about the same performance as the A and B.
Combat ceiling is _ for FRESCO D. 25X40
Data shown at take-off gross weight.
J Internal fuel only.
Military power. 25X40
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34 Table 5 Substitute new Table:
Table
Estimated Actual Bloc Jet Fighter Strength in Operational Units
USSR Mid-1962
Day 4410
All-weather 4890
Subtotals 9300
European
Satellites
Day
2860
All-weather
740
Subtotals
3600
Asiatic
Communist
Day
1900
All-weather
690
Subtotals
2590
Bloc Totals
Day
9170
All-weather
6320
Subtotals
15,490
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35 Table 6 Amend present Table as follows:
TABLE 6
OPERATIONAL SITES
Prime Early Warning
1958
1962
Token
325
135
New Type
-
17
TOTAL
325
310
GCI
Token
350
115
New Type
295
TOTAL
350
410
OPERATIONAL RADAR EQUIPMENTS
Air Search Types
Token
600
600
Gage & other new types
75
495
NOTE: Remainder of Table unchanged, including footnotes.
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36 Table 7 - Amend Table as follows:
Estimated Actual Strength and Deployment of Certain
Sino-Sov et Bloc Air e ense qu pment Mich-1' 62 j .
Jet Fighter Acft in Op Units
AREA
JET
FIGHTERS
DAY ALL WEATHER TOTAL REGIMENTS
Northwestern USSR
670
720 1
390
43
Western USSR
985
1070 2
055
63
West Central USSR
600
900 1
500
45
Caucasus
555
575 1
130
35
East Central USSR
305
315
620
19
Far Eastern USSR
850
820 1
670
51
TOTAL WITHIN USSR
3965
4400 8
365
256
Soviet Forces East Europe 445 490 9
35
29
TOTAL SOVIET:
(4410)
(4890) (93
00)
(285)
Satellite Nations
2860
740 36
00
113
TOTAL. EAST EUROPE:
3305
1230 4
535
142
Asiatic Communist:
1900
6g0 2
590
76
TOTAL BLOC:
9,170
6,320 15,
480
474
NOTE: Radars.. AAA now under review,
Footnotes remain unchanged at present.
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ANNEX Cy MAPS:
P9
Approximate Number of Bloc Airfields Suitable for Jet
Fighter Operations for Use in Connection with Map I.
Mid-1962
USSR: 470
European Satellites: 180
Asiatic Communist Nations: 180
Breakdown of USSR airfields for Map I:
West USSR: 135
Caucasus: 45
North West USSR: 85
West Central USSR: 85
East Central USSR: 35
Far East USSR: 85
470
Estimated fighter strengths in 1962 for the areas
listed for use in connection with Map I:
Eastern Europe:
Day:
3305
All-weather :
1230
West USSR:
Day:
985
All-weather :
1070
Northwest USSR:
Day:
670
All-weather :
720
West Central USSR:
Day:
600
All-weather :
g00
Caucasus:
Day:
555
All-weather :
575
East Central USSR:
Day:
305
All-weather :
315
Far East USSR:
Day:
850
All-weather :
1,670
Asiatic Communist Nations:
Day;
1,,900
All-weather :
690
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