POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WHICH MIGHT AFFECT US INTERESTS IN CERTAIN COUNTRIES ABROAD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A001500030010-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: March 10, 1971
• Content Type: MF

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
10 March 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR
(Revised Draft for Board Consideration)
SUBJECT: Potential Problems Which Might Affect US Interests
in Certain Countries Abroad
1. This paper directs attention, not to crises already.upon
us, but to countries and areas where there is reason for concern
that serious troubles may develop in the future. Thus we do not
include here such subjects as the Arab-Israeli situation, the
Vietnamese war, the violence in Northern Ireland, the policies
of the Allende regime in Chile, Soviet-Cuban affairs, military
deployments along the Sino-Soviet frontier, problems of Berlin
and Germany, and Libya's confrontation with the US oil companies.
The cases which we do discuss in this memorandum are treated only
in their essentials; we have therefore cited some recent or pend-
ing CIA publications which consider certain of them in greater
detail (See Annex which follows page 31i).
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Criteria for Selection
2. We have applied three criteria in deciding upon the
cases we treat beginning on page 5.
Likelihood. We can identify conditions or pre-
dict circumstances in which serious trouble may de-
velop. For the most part, we are not dealing here
with near-certainties or even. with probabilities.
Rather we are in the realm of the "strong possi-
bility" (i.e., chances of perhaps one in three or
one in four).
Importance. We can be confident that the
developments projected would, in each case, have
appreciable effect on US interests. This effect
could be in the form of specific threats to tangi-
ble things (e.g., abrogation of US base rights or
seizure of the assets of a. US company). Or it
could be in the form of. general repercussions (e.g.,
a change which imperils US relations with other
countries in a. region or complicates the US rela-
tionship with the USSR or some other major power).
Imminence. We can foresee that the develop-
ments might occur fairly soon. With respect to
timing, there may be considerable variation from
case to case; the change projected could take place
abruptly in some cases; more gradually in others.
Generally speaking, we are trying to look ahead a
year or two.
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3. Both the existing circumstances and possible develop-
ments differ widely, of course, across the range of countries
discussed. Yet in many of the cases there are common threads.
...mong these is the geriatric factor -- the control and govern-
ing in the case of a number of countries by one aged (or ill-
and-aged) man who has not provided effectively for an orderly
succession. Other threads, each evident in some few of the
places discussed, are: (a.) sharpening internal tensions
among political or tribal groupings, (b) new manifestations
of anti-US nationalism, and (c) increasing tendencies to
revolutionary or insurgent action.
4. The hazards associated with the kind of predicting
we attempt here are considerable. The world itself has always
been a. chancey and uncertain place; the pace of change within
its parts has now become increasingly swift, and the form of
change increasingly eccentric. Institutional and ideological
factors, which had long served as stabilizers or regulators,
are losing some of their force and relevance; factors of
opportunism and caprice seem to be gaining ground. Technolo-
gical advances, running farther and farther ahead of advances
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in the social and political spheres, add to the disruptive
effect. The communications explosion has already trans-
formed the way in which events in one part of the world
can interact with events in another; conflicts and rebellions
now seem to be more contagious, even if less purposeful.
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LATIN AMERICA
General Comments
Latin America has long been a region of political turmoil and
upheaval, but most of this has produced little enduring change. Now
a more basic revolutionary process seems to be gathering momentum,
and it is accompanied by a strong upsurge in anti-US sentiment.
Pressures for nationalization of US companies (as in Peru and
Chile) are almost certain to wax; readiness to cooperate with the
US in local matters or in international forums is almost certain to
vane. Terrorist attacks against US officials and installations will
continue to take place in a number of countries, including some
whose governments are among the friendliest toward the US (e.g.,
Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Guatemala.). The sort of unrest which
may develop in certain Caribbean countries will pose delicate problems
for the US Government -- because of proximity,, extensive US invest-
ment and the black white racial issue A worrisome situation
of quite a different sort -- and one in which US intercession and
mediation may be necessary -- is the territorial dispute between
Colombia. and Venezuela.
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BLACK AFRICA
General Comments
Much of Black Africa remains in a state of ferment and
turmoil. Colonial control has, for the most part, been broken
and independence achieved, but workable new political and social
institutions have not yet been achieved. Economic backwardness
is the rule, not the exception. Tribal contests for political power
complicate the situation in many African countries; in some of them,
resentment of and struggle against Portuguese Colonialism -- or
against the attitudes of the South African and Rhodesian governments --
diverts attention and energy from vital domestic concerns. Various
outside powers, including the USSR and Communist China, are, without
making large expenditures of effort or resources, trying to take
advantage of such opportunities as may arise to increaam- their
influence in the area.
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WESTERN EUROPE
General Comments
The broad tendencies in Western Europe likely to be of
particular concern to the T,US are a gradual, de facto loosening
of NATO ties and, at the same time,, a strengthening and enlarge-
ment of the European Economic Community. If this EEC progress is
accompanied by a proliferation of preferential trade arrangements
with third countries, the adverse effect on US trade patterns
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with Europe would be substantial. With respect to NATO, most of
the member countries continue to value the protection of the US
nuclear deterrent, but their worry about the Soviet threat has
diminished in recent years, and they have become more interested
than they were in improving relations with Eastern Europe. Beyond
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S_
NEAR EAST/NORTH AFRICA/SOUTH ASIA
General Comments
This is an area of the world still largely underdeveloped
and with extremely uneven concentrations of population and of
resources. It is generally an area. of conflicts and tensions the Indo-Pakistan and Arab-Israeli wars are simply the most
significant in recent years. It is also an area. of the world
of major interest to the Soviets and one where they have made
great progress during the past decade in reducing Western
influence and increasing their own. They have benefitted
greatly in this process from their role as champion of the
Arab cause in the Arab-Israeli struggle. At the same time,
they have capitalized on opportunities afforded by the
emergence of anti-colonial, radical governments. They have
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established a naval presence in the Mediterranean and are moving
gradually to extend it to the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and Indian
Ocean. The Soviet gains have, of course, entailed large costs
and serious problems, a. number of which are likely to be re-
curring. Yet the number of governments in this part of the
world still close to the US or generally pro-Western has become
quite small -- and certain of them do not appear very solid.
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