REACTIONS TO RECONNAISSANCE BY OXCART VEHICLES OVER NORTH VIETNAM AND CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A001300020003-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 17, 1966
• Content Type: MF

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17 June 1966
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR
SUBJECT: Reactions to Reconnaissance by OXCART vehicles over
North Vietnam and China
1. We have reviewed SNIE 10-2-66 on this subject, considering
particularly whether the judgments in that paper should be changed
in view of the current political situation in China. In our
opinion the estimate is still valid.
2. It is possible that the Chinese might, because of their
current troubles, be apprehensive lest the US was preparing some
military move to take advantage of these troubles. They might
therefore be somewhat more alarmed than usual by the beginnings
of this reconnaissance program. Nevertheless, we would reaffirm
the estimate, which said that there is only "some chance" that
the Chinese would conclude that the US was collecting target data
for use at an early date. And we would reaffirm the estimate
that China would not be likely to react with drastic military
moves.
3. In view of the worldwide speculation about the political
turmoil in China, any dramatic incident which might arise from the
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T-O-P S-E-C-R-E-T
reconnaissance would probably impel many to criticize the US
for poor timing of another intelligence enterprise. But we do
not think that this would significantly change the general
reactions estimated in the SNIE.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES:
SHERMAN KENT
Chairman
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