SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK IN ALGERIA*

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A001000010003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 30, 1963
• Content Type: MF

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
30 August 1963
MEMORANDUM FOR THE ACTING DIRECTOR
SUBJECT; Short-Term Outlook in Algeria
A war-weary Algeria has made some progress in restoring a
semblance of order to the chaos resulting from the revolution,
but formidable administrative and economic problems remain. The
country will remain heavily dependent on outside aid? especially
from France, for a long time to come. Ben Bella has largely
eliminated his political rivals and, aided by his personal
popularity, by a widespread desire for order and by support of
key elements of the military, will, in all probability, be
President of Algeria by the end of September. We do not think
he is likely to be severely challenged for control of the
country in the near future. Severe strains in Franca-Algerian
relations will probably arise over French nuclear testing in
the Sahara but we believe the benefits to both sides of the
current relationship will prevent a rupture.
NIE 62-63, "Algeria," due for USIB consideration in November,
will deal with this country in greater depth and on a longer
time span.
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Introduction
1. The changeover from a territory run by and for the
benefit of the French to an independent Arab state has been so
drastic and, all-encompassing as to have forced the leaders to
concentrate on day-to-day necessities. There has been little
time or effort to put into basic problems of long-term economic
viability and of creating employment opportunities for the
masses of Jobless workers. Unsettled conditions also make it
difficult to obtain reliable information on many aspects of
Algerian life, especially on economic developments and on the
attitudes of the leaders. Even the short-term judgments in
this memorandum are therefore somewhat tentative.
2. Few newly independent countries have begun their
existence with the handicaps which faced Algeria in the summer
of 1962. Eight years of civil war had killed many tens of
thousands, caused mass dislocations of population, and disrupted
both rural and urban economies. The exodus of 90 percent of the
Europeans left a serious shortage of technical and managerial
personnel, which effected agricultural and industrial production
and left administrative chaos in the cities. There was more
than a little likelihood that competition for power among Algerian
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leaders would result in renewed righting. In the past year,
however, the Algerians have avoided the worst dangers and have
made some progress toward stability. law and order has been
generally established; the rudiments of an administrative system
are beginning to fill the gaps left by the departing French;
some progress has been made in reactivating what remains of
formerly French enterprises; political violence has been
avoided.
The Present 8i.tuetl.ou
3. The short-term problems facing the regime remain sub-
stantial, however. The country is still plagued with massive
unemployment. The government is critically short of revenue
and will have to resort to stringent austerity measures to avoid
budget deficits of a magnitude which would spark inflation.
Trained manpower for all sorts of activity -- industrial,
commercial, agricultural, and administrative -- is in woefully
short supply. Algeria continues to be heavily dependent on
outside aid, principally from France in the form of money
grants. Even in a year of a good harvest like the present one,
the food supply is inadequate and the US is providing food for
a work program to feed some three to four million people. The
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rate of population increase is one of the highest in the world.
In these circumstances, the Algerian political leadership
recognizes the vital role of foreign aid in avoiding financial
chaos and widespread starvation.
ii. The Algerian people, exhausted by the rigors of the
rebellion, are willing, indeed looking for guidance from their
leaders, but so far this has come only in generalities. Algerian
leaders have been educated in a school of clandestine activity,
revolt and terrorism, and had no previous experience in the
tasks of state administration. Lines of authority are confused
and many specific problems, such as tax collection end local
administration, are far from adequate solution. Nationalized
properties have been turned over to workers committees which
often have little notion of how to run them.
5. The principal political development in the period
since independence has been the concentration of power in the
hands of Prime Minister Ahmad Ben Bella. Ben Bella has played
his cards skillfully to eliminate or neutralize most of his
potential political rivals. Several things have helped him to
entrench himself in power. In the first?plece, Ben Bella U,
personally popular; as a revolutionary hero he caught the
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Imagination of especially those in the countryside. Secondly,
he has thus far had the cooperation of key elements of the army
and in particular its leader, Colonel Houari Boumedienne.
Thirdly, eight years of bloodshed and turmoil have left people
in no mood to see an outbreak of partisan quarrels so soon after
the achievement of independence.
6. Ben Bella himself typifies the "modern" A3.gsrl a,. He
is of rural origin, and feels strongly that land re-distribution
leading to a better life for the peasantry is an immediate need.
He is more politician than administrator, tends to shun routine
work, and sees himself primarily as a leader and inspirer of the
Algerian masses. His bent is to govern on authoritarian and
state socialist lines, but his political principles appear to
be hazy and his ideas about concrete economic and political
measures largely undeveloped.
The Outlook
7. Ben Bella is now pushing through a constitution which
will give wide powers to the President. The regime intends to
follow up a nationwide referendum on the constitution promptly
with elections which will almost certainly return Ben Bella to
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the office of President. Other political elements are being
given no opportunity to present their own ideas of what Algeria's
future political system should be. In consequence, a number
have quit the country or the political arena, convinced that
they cannot beat Ben Bella and unwilling to join him in a
subordinate role. The latest, and perhaps most notable,
"defector" is Ferhat Abbas, who has long been devoted to a
parliamentary form of government. By the end of September
Abmad Ben Bella will be President of Algeria with most of
the effective instruments of control in his hands.
8. There will continue to be rumors and perhaps some
preparations for armed rebellion to Ben Bella's regime on the
part of disillusioned leaders.
We do not rate very
highly the chances of a successful armed rebellion, chiefly
because there does not seem to be much enthusiasm for further
struggle and bloodshed. Indeed, the only place from which a
significant challenge to Ben Bella might come is the army. This
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could occur either if it remained under Colonel Boumedienne or
if it split into fact:'.ons. '.There are some signs of friction
between the two men, but we do not know yet how serious they are
or whether Boumedienne would presume to challenge Ben Bella. For
one thing he lacks the latter's popularity; for another a direct
challenge would risk civil war which would be unpopular and
which he has no certainty of winning. There is some possibility
that the problems Ben Bella faces could mount up so as to cause
a virtual breakdown of authority. Such conditions could lead to
military intervention but, on balance, we believe this is unlikely
in the near future.
9. Algeria's relations with France are likely to be of
critical, if not vital, importance for some time to come. The
present arrangement is an eminently logical "marriage of con-
venience" whereby France contributes substantial sums ($340 million
since January 1963) for budgetary support and development in return
for the opportunity of maintaining a sizeable measure of French
cultural and commercial interests in Algeria. Moreover, the Evian
accords, which sealed Algerian independence, gave France the use of
the Sahara nuclear test sites. In the wake of the test ban treaty,
further French tests in the Sahara will cause severe strains in
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Algerian-French relations, particularly because Ben Bella will be
under pressure from other African states to protest violently. We
believe, however, that, because of Algeria's desperate need for
French financial assistance and because of the French desire to
maintain a presence in Algeria, these frictions will probably not
lead to a rupture of relations.
10. In the unlikely event that a French-Algerian rupture did
occur, Ben Bella would probably turn at least initially to the
West, chiefly the US, to take over most of this French role.
However, the Bloc -- which has confined its assistance in Algeria
largely to technical aid and education so far -- might seize the
opportunity to play a larger role than heretofore. Ben Bella
would no doubt accept substantial Bloc aid if he judged it
economically sound and without political strings.
11. US-Algerian relations are likely to be subject to
strains, as the Algerians, in their capacity as successful
revolutionaries, have a compulsion to support all varieties of
revolutionary action elsewhere, especially in Africa. This
support may from time to time bring Algeria into conflict with
the US in the UN, say, as the US strives for a moderate approach
to problems in the southern Africa scene. The Algerians also see
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Cuba as a revolutionary country struggling against big-power
domination and this attitude will probably bring on some diplomatic
clashes with the US from time to time. The same is true in respect
of the conflict in Vietnam. However, Algerian sympathy for Hanoi
appears to spring less from ideological considerations than from
an emotional feeling of solidarity with others who have faced the
tender mercies of the "pares" and the Foreign Legion.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONALjESTIMATES:
ABBOT SMITH
Acting Chairman
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 OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
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UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
Memorandum
TO : The 'lirectnr
FROM : The AD/f
DATE: 5 September 1963
SUBJECT: Attached Memorandum for the Acting Director, "Short-To
Outlook for Algeria"
This was prepared in response to a request by the Director.
Since an lIE on Algeria is in prospect for November, we suggest
that distribution of this ss~eorsndua be made only within the Agency.
CSR:
y Directu r Iate11igence
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