PUSHTUNISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000700010010-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: March 15, 1961
• Content Type: MF

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E AG E N C Y
15 March 1961
MEMORANDUM FOR THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
SUDJECT% PUSHTUNISTAN
The attached Memorandum for the Director is circulated
for your information,
CHESTER e
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
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 ECREr
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ECTfl'ATES
15 March 1961
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL II~ITELI :IGENCE
SUBJECT: "PUSHTUNISTAN't=1
1, The "Pushtunistan" quarrel between Pakistan and
This unlikely-
Afghanistan has smouldered ever since 1947..
sounding issue merits renewed attention at the moment for two
reasons: (a) We believe that tensions have reached a point
where there is about an even chance of substantial disturbances
along the Pakistani-Afghan border in the current year, and (b)
If a new flareup occurs, the US will probably be more directly
involved than in the past,
This memorandum has been discussed with CCI and DDP,
The quarrel centers on Afghanistan's insistence that the
six million Pushtuns (Pathans) who live in Pakistanis North-
West Frontier area, and who are of the same tribal group as
the dominant element in Afghanistan? are being oppressed by
Pakistan and should be given an opportunity to opt for an
independent state of "Pushtunistan."
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Prospects for a Clash
2. There has been sporadic scull-scale fighting in the
border areas over the past dozen years. This has been principally
by tribes, incited and supported by Afghanistan, against Pakistani
efforts to extend central government control over the tribal areas.
Tension has grown rapidly during the last six months. Last fall
a force of Afghan irregulars which enured Pakistan in support of
dissident tribesmen was badly mauled by the Pakistanis, who took
advantage of the disturbance to occupy the remote border area in-
volved. Within the past month Afghan-supported tribal elements
in an adjacent area of Pakistan have been bombed and strafed by
the Pakistan Air Force.
3, There are clear indications that the Afghans plan to con-
tinue their agitation.. Foreign Minister Naim (usually a moderate
on the "Pushtunistan" issue) and his militant brother, Prime
Minister Daud, have both made statements to this effect. Afghan
"volunteers" are apparently being recruited for action in the
tribal area; tribal clothing is being manufactured for the volun-
teers by the Afghan Government; and 10,000 old British rifles and
large quantities of ammunition have reportedly been sent to the
border area.. Recently two brigades of the Afghan regular army have
been moved into a supporting position.
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4+, Pakistani leaders. including President Ayub, have made
no secret of their intention to hit back hard if the Afghans in-
cite further trouble in the tribal area, Some of them have talked
about occupying territory across the international boundary in
Afghanistan in order to surround the border hills wherein the tribal
areas are centered. We think it unlikely that they will do so.
If they do, however, the US and the USSR are likely to become in-
volved, at least to the extent of having to take positions, We
know relatively little of specific Pakistani plans and prepara-
tions in the tribal area, but it is clear that a general strength-
ening and pushing forward of the government position into the
hitherto isolated tribal territory is a major policy of the Ayub
overnment,
International Implications
5, During the years that the "Pushtunistan" quarrel has
dragged on, the US has expanded its relations with Pakistan while
the USSR has come to have increasingly close ties with Afghanistan,
Both the great powers have provided arms for the respective sides,
The USSR has openly supported the Afghan position on "Pushtunistan."
The US, on the other hand, has carefully avoided taking sides on
the issue,
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6. Additionally, the Afghans have condemned Pakistan's use
of arms received under the US military assistance program against
the dissident tribesmen, The recent bombing attacks were carried
out by F86 Fs, The Pakistanis can argue legitimately that they
have a perfect right to use the MDAP weapons to maintain internal
security or to repel aggression, The legal question would be less
clear if they were to use the weapons in a countermove which
violated the international boundary. However, Karachi, in its
present mood, would be unlikely to be deterred by legal niceties.
Afghan tactics are to inspire tribal warfare within Pakistan,
Kabul will be reluctant to conmit its Soviet supplied aircraft
and tanks, but would almost certainly do so in the event of a
Pakistani raid into Afghanistan,
7. The US, through its Ambassadors in Kabul and Karachi,
has urged moderation on both sides, but there is little reason to
believe that this will have much effect. Nor is any other way of
preventing a clash immediately apparent. Afghanistan has long
-4 -
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wanted to get the "Pushtunistan" issue into the UN, and would
probably seize on any likely opportunity to try to do so, Should
the issue go to the UN.
the US
would find itself under heavy pressure to support its ally Pakistan
at the cost of further alienation of the Afghans.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
SHERMAN KENT
Chairnan
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'MEMORANDUM FOR: DC1
Pak-Afghan relations are getting ugly,
and s. real flare-up will involve the US and
po ibly the USSR more directly than before``
I problem is almost certain to be of inter-
agency interest. I recommend that you authorize
?t's distribution to USIB members for information.
A~
vt. c -j LLB
cc: DDCI
DDI
(DATE)
Fd' -N6. {~yl REPLACES FORM 10-101
_ffM t. AUG S4 V WHICH MAY BE USED.
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