BRIEFING MEMORANDUM FOR DCI RE 'THE PORTUGUESE SUCCESSION PROBLEM'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010118-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 118
• Publication Date: February 16, 1959
• Content Type: MEMO

PXMM For Release
IA-I~b 009
Office Memorandum UNITED AA
suBJECr:Briefing Memorandum for DCI re "The Portuguese Succession Problem"
1. The growing number of rumors regarding Salazar's replace-
ment and his current illness indicate that he probably has no better
than an even chance of lasting another year. To date, Salazar has
refused to prepare anyone to succeed to his office and powers. But
even if he dies without having prepared the way for a successor we
believe that initially the regime will probably carry on much as it
has in the past. Over the longer term however, we are less sanguine
regarding the prospect of any of the leading candidates to maintain
the relative tranquility which has characterized Portugal under the
Salazar regime. In Salazar's absence the demand for reforms is al-
most certain to grow and the regime will find it increasingly diffi-
cult to adjust to popular demands for greater liberalization without
alienating powerful conservative interests long associated with the
Salazar regime.
2. The constitution provides that the President has the re-
sponsibility to appoint the Premier. The present incumbent would
not hesitate to confirm Salazar's choice which, at this time, would
VERNMENT
PATE: 16 February 1959
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probably be Dr. Gaetano, former Minister of the Presidency and the
regime's leading theoretician. If Salazar dies without signaling
his preference various factions within the government would probably
seek to promote the interests of one or the other of several prominent
personalities associated with the Salazar regime. High on any such
list would be Dr. Gaetano, the increasingly popular Gen. Craveiro
Lopes, former President of the Republic, and Gen. Santos Costa former
Minister of Defense who enjoys considerable backing in the armed
forces. In the event, it proved difficult to reach agreement on
any single candidate a Junta might be installed. Reportedly the
most likely members in a Junta would be, Gaetano, Craveiro Lopes,
and Gen. Moniz, present Minister of Defense.
3. There appears to be no organized opposition to the present
regimen Gen. Delgado, the defeated presidential. candidate in labt
Spring's elections continues to be the center of widespread popular
opposition to the regime. However, without the possibility of
effectively organizing his support, Delgado can presently do little
more than harass the government.
Approved For Release 20II6 RDP79R00904A000500010118-8