SNIE 100-4-59: CHINESE COMMUNIST INTENTIONS AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT AREA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010110-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 110
• Publication Date: March 9, 1959
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/11/13. j P79R00904AO00500010110-6
9 March 1959
GO-4-S9 Chinese m mtist Inte ans and
robable Courses of Action in the
Taiwan Strait Area
of the estimate. All the agencies are rather firm
each an SNIX for contingency planting
'T DIRLCTOR
timate was requested by the Department of
r of Mr. Amason to the Del, and attached
The U$ll, 27 January 1959, directed that
rnpl.t*
*xarniestirm on 10 March
IBS T
ditfereacee at view were encountered in the
ent that the Chinese Cenunwtiats are not likely
gee a major crisis in the near future. Short of
represontatly a did have difficalty
:g just what tactics the Chineee Communists are likely to
of the text (sad board) position is that
Approved For Release 2QGJJJdW : CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010110-6
 Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010110-6
Idw
s will soak to keep the
such as shollings, Uratte d sea and air ere
sibly an attempted aeeisuree of aroma of the lees er oUsaeere
re aggressive air action. State, while Saint aloe,
ended pertod of relative, quiee*c ce i
a comparative e
rather
pressures ",will not approach the level of tension
estimate, inclined more to the view that we were in
with the test
crisis.! State has taken no reservations or these
points, but may possibly rates them for discussion at the iSIB.
der* that the tuft should stand.
The Berlin crisis is discussed (parse and 26). State
reserve on these paragraphs, believing
should say
the Com w bits would initiate, a Tat
crisis in conjunction with Berlin. The JU*rd considers
THE BOARD NATIONAL 3 TIMATLS
Approved For Release 20
 Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010110-6
NOTE re SNIE 100-4-59: Chinese Communist Intentions and Probable
Courses of Action in the Taiwan Strait Area
G!' si nificant chap es at clean 1a[onday. 9 March are:
. Softening of estimates re MIG -19's and CCAF' capabilities
during 1959:
a. P. iii, para. L
b. p. 18. para. 33
ce p. A16, para. A 21 (old para. A 20)
d. p. ASS. para. A 24
Noting increase in Nationalist artillery in Matsus,
p. A3, table.
. Lessening of CCAF airlift capabilities against offshore
islands. pp. A18 - A19, old para. A 25.
4. Upping of Nationalist Air Force equipment during 1959.
p. AS. para. A 10.
Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010110-6