BRIEFING NOTE ON SCHEDULE OF ESTIMATES ON SOVIET MILITARY CAPABILITIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010085-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 85
• Publication Date: May 11, 1959
• Content Type: MF

App
11 May 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DI CTC
SUB CTi
Note on Schedule of Estimates on Soviet
Capabilities
You have already been briefed on these proposals by
the Board of National Estimates, whose position is sot forth in
the memorandum dated 6 May. All agencies agree to the
desirability of sstim*ting Soviet intentions and programs for pro-
eiacing and deploying missiles in conjunction with other weapon
ems suitable for the same general purposes. There is like-
wise general agreement as to the desirability of beginning a long-
k estimate immediately, and postponing the air defense
paper to early next year.
As indicated by reservations on page 5 of the Board's
memorandum, however, there is disagreement as to the procedure
which should be followed in preparing a long-range attack paper,
y the role OMAIC should play. At the meeting held
last week to discuss the proposals, the Joint Staff representative
at Soviet requirements, policy, and operational deployment
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of missiles were beyond GMAICts purview, and that GMAIC
should therefore make no separate contribution to the paper.
The Air Force representative took the position that a separate
GMAIC contribution involved unnecessary duplication, since
Ile, bomber, and other estimates to be included in
the paper would have to be coordinated later by ONE and the
representatives. Navy was also concerned about possible
duplication.
3. These differences were probably unavoidable because
of the varying interpretations given to OMAIC's charter. The
Board feels that there is no serious jurisdictions
volved in this case. It believes that the specialized knowledge
of some of the people working in GMAIC can be a valuable con-
tribution to this estimate, and is worth the risk of some dupli-
cation and jurisdictional imprecision. Military estimates of
complexity have always involved this in order to ensure
utilization of the full resources of the community. The pro-
cedure suggested in this cans actually simplifies that employed
in the last missile estimate when the device of Ad Hoc Com-
a required separate consideration at three separate
echelons.
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4. It is recommended that the USIB note the ONE
memorandum and draft terms of reference, and approve
the recommendations made in paragraphs 5-8 of the mer
randuxn.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES:
SHERMA.N KE
Assistant Director
National Estimates
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