USIB COMMENTS ON ONE MEMORANDUM, 'PROSPECTS OF THE SOMOZA REGIME IN NICARAGUA'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010080-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 8, 2006
• Sequence Number: 80
• Publication Date: May 22, 1959
• Content Type: MF

Approved For R lease 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R009044000500010080-0
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
2 2 May 1959
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR
SUBJECT: USIB Comments on ONE Memorandum, "Prospects
of the Somoza Regime in Nicaragua''
1. The USIB agencies concerned have all expressed agree-
ment with subject memorandum (attached), which we circulated
on 19 May with your request for comments. State had two
queries on emphasis which it thought should be considered in
any future briefing we prepared for you on this subject, and
individual points were also raised by General Walsh and the
Joint Staff. However, none of these comments was put forward
as calling for revision of the memorandum.
2. The specific comments of the agencies are as follows:
State would emphasize the threat of a leftist invasion
from Cuba less heavily than we did (paragraph 4), on the
Approved For Release 2006/11/13: CIA-RDP79RO
 Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R00904A 0500010080-0
grounds that recent actions of the Cuban government had
reduced the potential and appeal of the leftist group in
Cuba and that the basic cleavage between Communist and
non-Communist opposition groups is deeper than we im-
plied. In addition, State would give somewhat greater
consideration of the possibility of a purely internal attempt
against the reginTe. Our only direct r :ferenc,e to this point
was a statement (paragraph 5) that a purely internal revolt
was unlikely to succeed, at least so long as there was no
sharp economic deterioration.
b. Air Force
General Walsh expressed some misgivings on the
last line of paragraph 5, which casts a slight doubt on the
dependability of the Nicaraguan Air Force, though he
finally endorsed the paper in full.
Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010080-0
 Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R00904AO00500010080-0
M
c. The Joint Staff
A Joint Staff representative suggested that the border
dispute between Nicaragua and Honduras might be a source
of trouble, since the area in question (a several hundred
square mile wedge of sparsely populated jungle stretching
westward from the Caribbean) is much used for line-
crossing and if a rebel invasion started there, Nicaragua
might strike out at Honduras in retaliation.
d. Army and Hyy
No comments.
FOR THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
Cyj?ry~Jtyr~
SHERMAN KENT
Assistant Director
National Estimates
Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP79R00904A000500010080-0