THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK IN BURMA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000400020002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 23, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 24, 1958
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A000400020002-6
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
SUBJECT: The Political Outlook in Burma
24 June 1958
DOCUMENT NO g
NO CICKSE iN CLASS.
X.,?DLOLIASSMED
DLASS. Gii;iNtEED TO: TS S C
NEXT Ra?EVI DATE'
ADM:
11,11APR 1980 REVIEWER: 018645
1. Over the past year political stability in Burma has steadily
deteriorated as a result of the widening split in the Anti-Fascist
Freedom League (AFPFL), the coalition of socialist and nationalist groups
which has dominated Burma since the end of the Japanese occupation.
The two opposing factions are headed by Premier U Nu and the Socialist
loaders Ba Swo and Kyaw Nynin. Their differences are primarily personal.
Faced with strong parliamentary opposition within the AFPFL, Nu won a
bare 127-119 vote of confidence in early Juno only with the aid of 40
votes provided by the National Unity Front, a Communist-front organization.
Nuts opponents have now struck back by deposing him as president Of the
AFPFL and expelling him and nine supporters from the League.
V
STAT
2. Tho outlook is for a period of heightened political tension,
possibly including violence, in which the Communists will probably make
some gains. U Nu will probably soon call new elections in an effort to
win stronger parliamentary support. There is a better than oven chance
that he could carry such elections. In so doing, however, he might come to
depend on
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/23: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400020002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/23: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400020002-6
4 ft
Communist front organizational support to replace the AFPFL apparatus
which has racently been denied him by his Socialist opponents.
3. However, we believe that the British ambassador in Rangoon's
assertion that nBurma could bedyme a people's democracy within a
year if things are allowed to take their course and tha army does not
intervenen* somewhat overstates the danger. The majority of the
politically-conscious Burmese are anti-Communist, and the hrmy leaders
are essentially pro-Western. Should the NUF win 4 favored position
in the U Nu ranks, this in itself might encourage a*coalescence of
non-Communist forces around U NU's present opposition and provoke the
army into an open move against pro.Communist political forces. Lastly,
is not a Communist, add is probably sincere in his as he is
pot and will not become. beholden to the NUF.
FR THE BORA} CF NATIONAL ESTIMATES:
* Quoted in
SHERMAN KENT
Agsistant Director
National Estimates
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/23: CIA-RDP79R00904A000400020002-6