PROSPECTS FOR POLITICAL STABILITY IN NICARAGUA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000700100017-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 5, 1999
• Sequence Number: 17
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2001/03/04: CIA-RDP79R00890A000700100017-1
S 't c' ":; I Of? I ?L TICAL STABILITY
IN h ICARAGUA
Txc death of President Somoza will. stimulate the de>aanad for
political change in Nicaragua, although the situation during
the next few months will probably not be chaotic.,
A. No one is presently in a position to assume the late dictator
full authority.,
B, The struggle for the eventual succession will be intense.
C. The position of the 3,500-man National Guard--tbje country's
DOCUMENT NO
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only armed force--Will be crucial. N9,CHANGEINCLASS
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Approved For Release 2001/03/04: CIA-RDP79R0089OA000700100017-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/04: CIA-RDP79R0089OA000700100017-1
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Luis Somoza,the late president's elder son and his constitutional
successor, has been named president by-congress for the balance of
his fatherls term (ending next May) He "'is expected to ,be named
at the Literal 'Party convention this weekendas the candidate for
y:-election to a subsequent six-year term. '`Luis Somoza, however
ot a decisive i i s c i>sz< v!-, duled for February 1957, is not expected to
Per= fret: and if he is a candidate, Luis' victory would be
virtually assured,
i; This would further stimulate demands for a change in Nicaragua
on the part of the opposition and much of the populace.
Approved For Release 2001/03/04: CIA-RDP79R0089OA000700100017-1
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A roved
National Guard.support of the government will be in doubt,
lu
onger rn, because many Guard officers hate t
he
x
i
present chief, Luis' brother .~
Tachito", and may force his
dismissal.
TIIThe assassination may have. serious international re
percuss ions.
The murder weapon was bought in the US by a Nicaraguan evil
e
Who lives in El Salvador and has close contacts in the
leading
Nicaraguan revolutionary exile group.
- I -
After the
December crops are. in the rich Opposition.
Conservative leaders--along with, militant exil
y
attempt a revolt. n^d~ ~.
Approved For Release 2001/03/04: CIA-RDP79R0089OA000700100017-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/04: CIA 79R0089OA000700100017-1
~'"SECRE~'
Evidence may be found--or manufactured--linking'these exile
th `Somoxa's old enemy, Costa Rican president Figueres.
With or without such evidence, the Nicaraguan may take
:rdprisals against Costa Rica, even to the extent of instigating
n attempt on Figueres.
Approved For Release 2001/03/04: CIA-RDP79R0089OA000700100017-1