BACKGROUND - AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000400040020-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 26, 2002
• Sequence Number: 20
• Content Type: BRIEF

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National 1st IIoP t.e
(published 19 Oct), we couclud
A. That strategically important bu `~:.
state is vulnerable to Soviet prc~-
because of its exposed position;
military weakness and its growirn?
economic ties with the USSR.
B. Soviet attentions to Afghanistan.
particularly in form economic, t=
assistance--increased markedly i
year and will. probably continue
C. However, USSR unlikely gain cont.-
Afghanistan Afghanistan within next years, Ve,-?{
1. Soviet techniciaus a4ae,?
or subversion but
almost no pro-Cowmuni- _ wiew.:
at
DOG~,~4E"3T td2
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2. #..l unlikely to use force, since
such ,:~cI ..~;::,,~c:~;.Yi?i offer few ad-
vantages a :d would bring a strong
anti-Soviet reaction, particularly
in Ara c: 4_. a is bloc.
D. Finally, we said that, despite some dis-
cussion of p sr--ihi afghan-Pakistan
confederat -i , t~ot.h internal complica-
tions and Soviet and Indian opposition
make such a merger extremely unlikely.
II. Events since Octo,:Wr have effected this
Nationa- F,s1:in;att only slightly.
r'conomic activities, the'
are conti.nuiii , otir reason to believe
that reports of accelerated penetratic
1 , Ch i:a of Soviet supply 90
discounted by continue
shipments 2--3 million
gallons (annual consumption in
e 3 million).
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Soviet-:fghaa trade agreements,
which show Fourfold expansion on
paper, my ,c.11 not be fulfilled.
Prospects for bel ter Afghan-Pakistan
relations have improved, although
merger remains improbable.
1. :Afghan Foreign minister has agreed
to confer on outstanding issues
with Pakistan, at time and place not
yet specified.
2. Al though Afghan prime minister
recently restated his government's
support of thorny Pushtoonistan
cause, his action is considered a
pre-conference maneuver and
prospects for Afghan-Pak collabora-
tiou are brighter.
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