(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000200050024-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2002
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: March 30, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2002/08/ M9R00890A000200050#T
NSC BRIEFING 30 March 1954
D R A F T
ARAB-ISRAELI DISPUTE
I. Current flare-up underlines serious instability in Near East.
Two main trouble spots:
A. Jordan - Two recent incidents.
L.,_
1. Bus ambush Scorpion Pass - 17 March.
No evidence Jordan responsible
2. Attack Nahhalin village - 28/29 March.
a. Sharett admits Israeli responsibility.
b. Equpment at scene suggests army operation; attacking
force of 2 companies.
c. Armistice Commission censures Israel; Israel not present.
3. Troop dispositions:
?
a. Jordan: 11,7000 in West Jordan
b. Israel: 12,000 in central sector. Secret *I-redeploy-
ment and call-pp reserves.
B4' Syria
1. Dispute over Jordan River watergpromoted Lake Tiberias
shooting.
DIA review(s) completed.
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2. Armistice Commission condemned both sides. ordered
Syrian civilians from lake. Decision threaten break-down
of armistice machinery.
3. Troop disposition:
Syria: 12,000: 1/3 of its troops in southern Syria.
b. Israel: Four brigades, one tank company; strength
approximately 10,000.
C. Egypt - Preoccupied with internal problems; trouble unlikely.
D. United Nations
1. Local armistice machinery breaking down.
2. United Nations unable solve Israel-Arab disputes.
II. Anticipated immediate developments:
A. Arabs
1. Egypt.to preoccupied to become involved with Israel.
2. Syria also intensely abosrbed but has more belligerent
attitude.
. a. Will walk out of Armistice Commission if access to
Lake Tiberias not restored.
b. Will be unyielding on Jordan canal diversion issue.
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3. Jordan - Bitter hatred and fear will keep border tense.
4. Arabs fully aware Israeli military superiority. None
will attempt to launch an attack.
B. Israel
1. Premier Sharett, faced with internal problems and war
group, will try restz.n army and gain Israel's aims by
diplomacy.
2. Israel cannot afford attack at present.
III. Long-range prospects for relaxation of cold war dim.
A. Arabs emotional and bitter.- Israel too hard-pressed
economically to make concessions.
B. Arabs - feel West won't protect(them. Unable to wage war,
will be tempted turn to terrorism, boycott, and maneuvering
with orbit.
C. Israel
1. Annoyed with West and UN
2. Irritated over Western defense plans.
3. Also irtitated with Orbit.
4. Frustrations will make Israel diff(c ult deal with on
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international level.
See MTN
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Will exert pressure, particularly in US.
6. Tougher provocative policy against Arabs will probably
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4
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S
NBC .BRIEFING T- 30 larch 2934
TIE ARAB-ISRAELI OISPUTS
current flare-up in the Arab-Israeli cold war under-
ertosaasfess of one of the uajor causes of instability
Near Bast. The two rain trouble spots ---> jordaaan a:
Syria -- have their own s;
Israel, the seoulderiag ani
chronically tense
border has steadily deepened. since the Q1bya massacre last
October. It has now broken into the open with two serious
Incidents.
The aubushiag on 17 larch of an Israeli bus to
pion Pass was followed on 29 March with an attack
,balma, approximately lad ail* so
aaaaalse *.
Premier Sharett ad sitt+a
patios of Israeli citizens, but i
official Israeli
kbility by describing the raid as a " ocaaal a aaffaaa rr.
The A ricaan araay attsch8 iron Asasa, who visit
d, bell
by Israeli armed f
hat it was planned *ad
. states thaaa,
to . Between
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 BB MIT
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earmarks of a military operation and that the material left
identical to Israeli army equipment. Israeli sea
oral 91 *ixett Armistice Commission did not a;
sting called by Cinder Nutchiaasaon, who joined the
ceusari;
near the Zara*
The bitter dispute ever the. waters of the Jordan River
irritant between Syria a':
artillery and Syrian outposts an
the shore, The armistice coasission condeaned both sides, but
the local
there are 11,7
Approximately 12,000 Israeli
center sector
.
moat days, heavy fire was exchanged be-
aael. It helped
-up on 11 Karcb over fishing rights on wee
the hope of proven
d an order prohibiting even traditional Syrian
25X1
access to the Inks. This decision threatens is anent break-dam
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of the Syrian-Israel 1 aralstic.. machinery and will cause this
border to plagued with infiltration problem
b Isrsee
Israel has four brigades
pang at approximately 10,W strength, in
12,013 non, one third of its troops,
gaily clashes on the ,south-
moment preoccupied with Internal problem.
no indicate on at present that any unusual att
try in the area
the
d Nations has
with Arab--Israeli disc;
bie to deg
evelopments say be anticipated. .apt is
,pied with an into
Israel. S
problem, has ro larily asssea
reel and will almost certainly
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ant.
it Syrian fishing rights
is to Lake Tibv.riss are amt restored. Syr,,
so be unyielding on any discussion of Jordan River rights,
ble can ex
bitte,
keep the entire border tense and result
pressure, from at
the Arabs.
diplomacy and moderate nothods to
La.. On 20 March the
ry attache in Israel suggested tha
acidest at Na alia
but Israel lost face inUrnatbually. At
rot
work on,
abed e t
radic a,
at,
25X1
can hardly afford to launch a full-scale attack, and Sharett
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as long
a is pow
e: prospects for any
Oi action which
train
Essos Israel istersataa
srael and the Arab states are
Itter for the Arabs to
ocoses icaiiy to make the concessions
to $050
m milling to
nation that the Yost is
maul, tee
enough to protect then tree
:go is,
to senseless terror_iss on a
Arabs, will be
a sharp boycotts and Iscroaml
Israel is hec inng increasingly annoyed
with the United Nations.
area
eatly disturbed over Was
,ngtben the Arabs
ael to irritated
a ant sa ti `t ' - o bz
k *:f
5114
A
pprove or e lease /
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auppe*t. Thee frustratiame will make Israel
y
be Vatted 81
May be eapML
of nabilat
its ends.
at on the west. Israel will
lice of
a a aaDeuYeriaaagas
lr
t er provocative policy against the Arabs will probably merge.
State**,
rith on an International level
7 of exerting maxima pressure,
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