THE PROSPECTS FOR A STABLE GOVERNMENT IN ITALY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000200050019-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 29, 2002
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: March 23, 1954
• Content Type: BRIEF

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THE PROSPECTS FOR A STABLE GOVERNMENT IN ITALY
Scelba coalition government's situation is precarious
A. Scelba's narrow majority (300-283) in Chamber of
Deputies depends on his Christian Democrats retaining
support of the three minor democratic parties.
Cabinet's prestige weakened by the Montesi scandal:
1. Resignation of police director Pavoneo appointed
by Scelba when latter was Interior Minister under
Be Gasperi;
2. Foreign Affairs Minister Piccioni still under
fire because of son*ss alleged connection with
esi affair.
Minor parties will nevertheless try to keep Scelba
from falling because:
They see it as the first government since Ju
elections capable of offering strong competition
to popular appeal of Communists and Nenni
Socialists:
a. Its cabinet composition, containing minor
party representatives for first time since
dune, reflects leftward trend of electorate;
b, Its program offers possibility of socio-
economic reform measures considered necessary
by them and by dominant left wing of Christian
Democratic Party.
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c. On 19 March Scelba announced programs of
policing Communists' ties With Moscow and
restricting their access to government-owned
printing presses.
11. Government parties are anxious.to avoid now elections now:
A. Gradually growing economic distress and unemployment
(already over 2,000,000) would tend to benefit opposition,
Communist-Nonni Socialist bloc's percentage of popular
vote rose from 31 percent in 1948 elections to 35.3
percent in 1953, and in sporadic local elections since
has continued to rise.
Government parties have still not devloped a new
program on which to campaign.
Possibilities of an alternative government including
Monarchists
A. Monarchists anxious to be included in new coalition
should Scelba fall and Do Gasperi be unable to form
new cabinet.
1. Monarchists can contribute 40 parliamentary seats
Party leaders opposing Monarchists inclusion, however,
have indicated that such a move would probably mean:
1. Social Democrats, with 19 seats, would withdraw
their support.
2. Republicans, with five seats, Would also withdraw
support.
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Christian Democratic party would tend to split,
leaving the new Monarchist coalition mahout a
majority,
a. Sentiment among party members against
collaboration with the Monarchists is strong,
and widespread.
1. Ex-premier Pella became increasingly un-
popular in the party because of his
with the Monarchists.
The 1 February statement of party policy,
used as the basis for negotiating the
formation of the Scelba.coalition,
dorsed the principle of a government
confined to the center.
Ex-premier De Gasperi expressed to
Ambassador Luce on 2 larch his strong
opposition to including Monarchists,
b, Left wing groups within the party, which are
particularly opposed to collaboration with
he Monarchists, gained strength in the June
elections, These factions, with their
timated strength in the Chamber of Deputies,
include:
Iniziativa Democraticaa. (left-wing led by
Taviani) 105 seats
CISL-ACLI (CD and Catholic labor groups) 23 seats
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4. Social Democrats and certain left-wing Christian
Democrats would be influenced to cooperate with
Wenni Socialists in opposition.
C. The fail in late December of the Pella Christ
Democratic government, which relied on extern
archist support, is a further indication that a
archist coalition would be unstable.
1. Pella, though aided by the Trieste dispute in
retaining Monarchist support, made additional
concessions to the Monarchist dislike of domestic
reform measures and was eventually thrown over by
his own party on:
a. The land question, and
b. His informal ties with the Monarchists in de-
fiance of his party's disapproval.
D. Monarchist party leaders in the past have been wavering
on, and occasionally opposed to, American foreign
policy objectives:
1. They have been unusually insistent on making
Italian participation in EDC conditional on
satisfactory Trieste solution.
2. They have been likewise insistent on a larger
policy-making role for Italy in NZTO
Industrialists prominent in the party have been
among the:: most vociferous advocates of expanding
Italy's trade with the Orbit.
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objectives, relations with neo-Fascist 8
struggle for party leadership.
Though firmly anti-Communist in sentiment, the Mon-
archists have consistently opposed socio-economic
reforms calculated to undermine the Communists'
electoral appeal.
Monarchist party generally an unstable element on
political scene;
1. Party leadership split on foreign policy and
relations with the neo-Fascists;
2. Party*s advocacy of institutional change tends to
increase polarization of Italian politics, be-
tween extreme right and extreme left.
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ITALIAN POLITICAL LEADERS
Secretary General Actual Leader
vernment Coalition
Christian Democrats Alcide de Gasperi Same
(CD)
Liberals
Republic,
Far Left
Communists
Bruno Tillabruna Same
Ugo la Malta Randolfo Pacciardi
Matteo Matteotti Giuseppe Saragat
(PLI)
(PBI)
(PSDI)
Palmiro Togliatti Same
(PCI
socialists Pietro Nenni
Par Right
Monarchists Alfredo Covelli
(PNM)
Lauro
(struggle with
Cave l l i for
leadership)
Italian Social Movement Augusta de Marsanich Same
(MSI)
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