CIA BERLIN ANALYSIS OF UPRISING IN EAST GERMANY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000100060015-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 27, 2000
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: July 8, 1953
• Content Type: BRIEF

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OCI No. 4511
Copy No. 44
SS
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
8 July 1953
CIA BERLIN ANALYSIS OF
UPRISING IN EAST GERMANY
1. East zone uprising, spontaneous movement launched by
working population with other segments populace following suit.
Small scale beginnings on 16 June possibly winked at by regime,
but evidence lacking.
2. People's police intervention during initial period spo-
radic, half hearted, successful where backed Soviet military
might. Early Soviet intervention prompted by correct appraisal
situation rapidly getting out of control, and reflected lack
reliance upon People's Police.
3. Potentially revolutionary situation brought about by
number of factors which, singly or combined, if added to pre-
valent dislike of regime, may have prompted outbreak:
a. Implementation of economic program second SED
conference resulting in drastic reduction living
standards, with 10% norm raise merely last straw.
Concomitant stepping up repression resulting
large scale exodus from zone, aggravating food
shortages and lack consumer goods.
b. Deep-rooted hatred against BED functionaries,
managerial bureaucracy and organs repression
(SSD, People's Police etc).
c. New SED Politbureau course announced 9 June
affording just enough respite for uprising get
underway. Encouraged strikes and riots because
workers felt repressive measures would not be
too harsh under new line. Also: Didn't BED
ask for "criticism from below"? Since 9 June
SED confused. Functionaries didn't know how to
interpret course for workers, so workers did it
for themselves. Buildup of resistance that BED
had striven prevent by past policy incessant
propaganda, continuous tightening economic
screws, increasing terror, disenfranchisement
populace, thus came to pass.
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4. Whereas spontaneity large-scale uprising unquestionable,
local uprising in some instances said. to have shown remarkable
degree organization, suggesting ad hoc leadership by experienced
tacticians and good mass discipline. Pattern in most uprisings:
a. word of East, Berlin strike; b. declaration of solidarity; c.
strikes; d. Marches against main concentrations oppressors: SED
headquarters, city halls, jails, SSD and VOPO installations,
and other official buildings.
5. Our surmise shop stewards and revolutionary tradition
German trade union movement played a vital role. Soviet "new"
methods were affront to pride German laborer in his work and up-
set traditionally accepted pattern organization within German
working class. Communist indoctrination harping on themes such
as 1917 Soviet uprising and analyzing reasons defeat German
Workers' Movement 1933 and prior thereto backfired.
6. Notion disproved that uprising "from above," presupposing
split Communist leadership, is the only type uprising conceivable
in Communist police state. This clearly uprising from below, not
controlled by any SED leadership faction.
7. Soviet propaganda loath concede "uprising from below"
theory or admit rift Communist leadership. Dogmatic quandary
and imperative necessity forestall similar developments :Satel-
lite Orbit forces Soviet leaders insist uprising neither from
below or above, but engineered from outside exploiting "Justi-
fied grievances."
8. US propaganda should spare no effort plug uprising from
below theme, which has following ramifications:
a. BED demonstrably kept in power only by Soviet
bayonets;
b. SED regime imposed from above, not only devoid
support workers it claims represent, but in
actual fact serves as instrument their oppres-
sion;
c. Soviet troops, "protectors of workers' paradise,"
shot down workers;
d. Communism not "progressive" but reactionary in
that it repressed "revolution" which it claims
to foster.
e. Where does all this leave Communist Trade Union
Movement(FDGC)?
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9. Thorough investigation warranted, whether Soviet capa-
bilities East Germany may conceivably have been depreciated to
point where Soviets themselves question present security of
East Germany as base for offensive against Western Europe and
doubt IRS security as communications zone once attack launched.
Breakdown KVP morale under stress major war all but certain.
Doubtful KVP could be entrusted maintain order behind advancing
Soviet armies.
10, If the 9 June SED course of action is implemented, as
indicated by Grotewohl on 21 June, the East German quest for
economic self-sufficiency, premised on build-up heavy industry
at expense consumer goods production, in effect has been scrapped.
This^bound to shift weight of importance from industrial prole-
tariat to farmers and consumer goods producers entailing serious
weakening BED influence in its role as vanguard industrial pro-
letariat. This in turn tends weaken Soviet hold over east zone
populace.
11. In view manifest hostile psychological climate toward
Communist system, eastern Germany may become less attractive to
USSR as OPS base Soviet efforts penetrate and subvert democratic
system of West Germany. Appeal Communist system to West Germans,
which never too strong, reduced to vanishing point.
12. Unity theme as presented by USSR no longer potent drawing
card. The SPD contention that uprising represent indication their
t'unity before integration." Policy in our opinion not borne out
by facts. However, this contention may carry weight with West
German rectorate.
13. Unlikely now SED will ever muster popular support on
mass scale. BED may in the long run be reduced to little more
than cadre party. Predictions wholesale reorganization east zone
regime in offing, with SED phasing out and bourgeois parties
taking over, highly wishful and premature. However, not incom-
patible with bringing bourgeois parties more to the fore, giving
them ostensible role in government.
14. Within SED anticipate broadening "democratic" base in
line Pravda articles which decried waning party influence at ex-
pense feew distinguished leaders continuously in public limelight.
Ulbricht's future position appears uncertain, but his continued
influence believed assured in light current DDR press comments
albeit presumably confined to preview BED secretary general. Not
unlikely remnants former SPD leadership and particularly trade
union elements will be assigned more prominent role,
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15. Although uprisings critically damaged prestige SED
regime, Soviets'only logical choice is attempt maintain SED
in pre-eminent position, even at price growing unpopularity.
BED will have to vindicate itself. Soviets may be forced to
deviate from new course by some concessions as in mass arrests
in order attempt restore authority leadership.
16. New BED Politbureau course (generally associated with
appointment Semeonov) will not undergo major changes as imme-
diate result uprising. Tactical detours should be recognized
as such.
17. Our estimate, Soviets will strive by all means their
disposal restore normalcy in east zone by time any four-power
conference proposed. If proposed today, USSR would have to
forego favorite strategy of requesting presence indigenous
Satellites,.i.e., SED representatives.
18. Soviets, preparing for remote contingency that they
may have to concede German unity on Western terms will main-
tain within DDR bourgeois parties covert nuclei Communist
control, but long range prospects success this maneuver not
too bright. Bourgeois parties will continue receive artifi-
cial respiration.
19. Spontaneity uprising not detracting from essential role
played by West Berlin, symbol free society, offering sanctuary
to persecuted, secure base allied and German information and
cold war agencies. Uprisings vindicate US and British policy
hold on to Berlin even at risk World War III and tribute to
foresightedness those who persisted keeping alive resistance
spirit east zone populace by all methods short of direct inter-
vention.
20. Though essentially a laborers' uprising SPD not en-
titled to equate itself with East German labor nor claim more
than due share of credit with other resistance organizations,
such as Kampfgruppe, Free Jurists and others. By admission
SPD east zone experts SPD's foreign policy not understood and
backed by rank and file its sympathizers on east zone particu-
larly on rearmament issue.
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