RESPONSE TO NSDM 289: ARMS SHIPMENTS TO INDIA AND PAKISTAN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 1976

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00603A002900010016-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2006
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: December 1, 1976
• Content Type: IM

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I ou Secret
Interagency
Intelligence
Re. pone to NSDM 289: Arms Shipments
to India and Pakistan During
the Second Half of 1976
Top Secret
NIO IIM 76-047
TS 761516
December 1976
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3n December 1976
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM*
SUBJECT: Arms Shipments to India and Pakistan During
the Second Half of 1976
KEY POINTS
India's military imports during the last half of
1976
raises the total for
all of 1976 to $207 million for India and $164
million for Pakistan.
The USSR remained India's major supplier and this
relationship is likely to continue.
significant Indian imports were
India's first receipt of this
system -- and the
craft. The Soviets are
IMIG-21 Bis air-
also suspected to have ap-
proved New Delhi's request to produce MIG-21 Bis
fighters under license in India.
This Memorandum is one of a series produced semiannuaZZy
in response to NSDM 289. It has been prepared jointly
by the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense InteZ-
Zigence Agency, and the Bureau of Intelligence and
Research, Department of State.
The most
SA-6 missiles
low altitude missile
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China remained Pakistan's key military supplier,
but France has become an increasingly important
source of sophisticated equipment. France re-
cently supplied Pakistan with its first surface-
to-air missiles. Pledges by Middle Eastern coun-
tries to provide funds to Pakistan for military
purchases rose sharply, but few purchases have yet
been made with these funds.
Both countries continue to develop their overall
nuclear programs, but in the last six months
neither has made significant new progress toward a
nuclear weapons capability. Some important de-
velopments, however, have occurred:
Heavy water imported by India from the USSR this
past fall is for use in the second Rajasthan
reactor and will almost certainly be subject
to IAEA safeguards. Nevertheless, these imports
will enable India to save domestically produced
heavy water for the CIRUS reactor and for certain
reactors under construction which are not safe-
guarded and are therefore potential sources of
plutonium for weapons.
There have been discussions about possible can-
cellation or postponement of the sale of a re-
processing plant by France to Pakistan. The
deal, however, is not yet dead. Such a plant
would be an essential acquisition if Pakistan
were to construct its own nuclear device.
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-- The net impact of the military equipment received
by India and Pakistan in 1976 has not significantly
affected India's overwhelming military superiority.
- The 110 A-7 fighter bombers Pakistan has asked to
buy from the US would improve Pakistan's ground
support and air interdiction capabilities, but
not significantly enhance its position vis-a-vis
India.* Indian modernization programs already
underway in the air defense field largely negate
the increased threat that Pakistani A-7s would
pose. The Indians, moreover, probably would
further improve their low altitude defense
system and intensify their efforts to purchase
deep penetration strike aircraft from either
Britain, France, Sweden, or the USSR. (India
has been considering such purchases for several
years.)
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of
State, does not believe that the brief accompanying
commentary is sufficient to support the judgment that
Pakistan's acquisition of A-7s would "not significantly
enhance its position vis-a-vis India." The subject
requires, in the opinion of State/INR, more compre-
hensive consideration of the psychological and poZiti-
cal implications in both India and Pakistan. State/INR
notes, moreover, that the response called for by NSDM
289 does not include discussion of hypothetical sales
but is limited to discussion of cumulative arms ship-
ments, deliveries, and contracts during the previous
six months.
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