CARIBBEAN: ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TRENDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00603A002400120001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 22, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1977
• Content Type: IM

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Secret
Interagency
Intelligence
Caribbean: Economic and Political Trends
Secret
NI IIM 77-009
April 1977
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ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TRENDS
IN THE CARIBBEAN 1,2
KEY JUDGMENTS
The Caribbean has long been and will continue to be important to
the US because of its geographic proximity, the availability of critical
commodities (notably bauxite and petroleum products), substantial US
investments, the large groups of immigrants in the US from the islands,
the presence there of US defense facilities, and because of the
familiarity of large numbers of US citizens with the region. Therefore,
an unfriendly or potentially hostile government in the area arouses
emotions in the US that are soon translated into political pressure to
protect American interests. Past interventions and the more recent
experiences with Cuba and the Dominican Republic are cases in point.
Caribbean politics in recent years have been typified by the
nationalistic fervor and assertiveness that have prevailed throughout
much of the underdeveloped world. The major economic problems of
the area at best will not be solved during the next few decades. The
area has a number of highly vulnerable, dependent economies, small
markets, limited domestic products, and few, patural resources. The
capacity of these economies for self-reliance and genuine independence
of action is small because of dependence on overseas markets for
primary products and capital.
Frustrations over social, economic, and political inequities,
unemployment, and poor public services are intensifying and have
contributed to increased pressures on several of the governments. The
"socialist" experiment currently developing in Guyana and a continu-
ing shift in that direction by Jamaica are radical attempts to address the
area's problems. Both countries exemplify a trend toward more
authoritarian government in the area, and their approach to national
problems is being watched closely by the other countries.
1 This Interagency Intelligence Memorandum was drafted under the auspices of the Acting NIO for
Latin America by the Office of Regional and Political Research and the Office of Economic Research of the
Central Intelligence Agency with contributions from the Departments of State, Defense, and Treasury, and
coordinated at the working level.
2 For the purposes of this paper, the Caribbean is defined as consisting of the Caribbean Islands
(except Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands), Bermuda, Belize, French Guiana, Guyana, and
Surinam.
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SECRET
11ic Caribbean has always been suhiect to foreign influence. The
[uropean colonial powers have been gradually withdrawing from the
area and as they pull out, the Soviets, and to a lesser extent the Chinese,
are trying to develop diplomatic and trade relations with local
;governments. They are increasing their influence, but the region
remains a low priority for them.
Cuba is moving more energetically to gain influence. Its proximity
and its demonstrated ability to resolve such comron problems as
illiteracy and public health have encouraged certain Caribbean
countries, especially Jamaica and Guyana, to emulat- some aspects of
the Cuban model. Cuban leaders feel that the risinc nationalist and
anticolonial sentiment provides them a common bond with many of
these islands.
The US is the major force in the area. Despite mutual needs and
-nterests, our different perspectives continue to result in some points of
conflict. Because of the unequal nature of this relationship. in
particular because of the overwhelming US economic presence in the
area-including between $4 billion and $5 billion of US private
investment. the US is often charged with economic &, ruination. There
is a possibility that negotiations over US military bases will be difficult.
Chances are good, however, that the US can retain its military
facilities, but at a greater cost. The US will remain an important market
for the area's products and will continue to supply a significant portion
of the region's imports. US tourism will he very important to the area's
I,,,onomies.
Washington's traditionally good relations with tl~i,_' Caribbean are
entering a more fluid phase as several of the already independent
nations experiment with new solutions to their problems, as the soon-to-
be independent nations assess new approaches, and as other states, such
as Cuba and Venezuela, seek to expand their influence. The region's
'eonomic dependency, its political fragmentation. the lack of self-
confidence by local governments, the strong force of n,ationalism, and a
desire to avoid even symbolic connection with the colonial past will
continue to complicate US-Caribbean affairs. The stata-s in the area will
he particularly sensitive to US actions which they interpret as
prejudicial to their economic interests.
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