EARLY WARNING OF ADVANCES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79M00098A000500020004-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 19, 2005
• Sequence Number: 4
• Content Type: OUTLINE

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Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098AO00500020004-1
Early Warning of Advances in Science and Technology
WHAT IS IT?
An attempt to sense the "PREVAILING WINDS" in Science and Technology
WHY?
Provide insight into developments that could change the power balance
? Real Changes ("Super-Weapons")
? Perceived changes in technological prowess (e.g. Sputnik/
Provide lead time for reacting to possible future military developments
Assist in intelligence collection and analysis
? Collect important information while it is still unclassified.-/
? Provide lead time to, reorient collection activities
? Possible aid in understanding enigmas
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Scientific & Technical
I y , li
intelligence l n~oinmiltee
Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098AO00500020004-1
 Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098AO00500020004-1
INTERVIEWS BASED ON ORE KEY QUE51ION.m
What are the emerging or rapidly moving areas
of Science or Technology potentially important
to National Security in the 80's?
Scientific & Technical
Intelligence CnmmI'littee
Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098A000500020004-1
 Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098AO00500020004-1
Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098AO00500020004-1
 Analysis
Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098A000500020004-1
INTERVIEW NOTES
IDENTIFICATION OF
SIGNIFICANT ITEMS
SCIENCE OR TECHNOLOGY PROBLEM OR THREAT
Life Sciences Soviet-Specific 43%
Computer Science
58% Worldwide 57%
Chemistry/Material S
Physics/Astronomy
High Energy Lasers
Space Technology
ASW Technology
Misc.
Negatives
23%
Confidential
Scientific & Technical
Intelligence Committee
Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098A000500020004-1
 Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098AO00500020004-1
What Stands Out In Science Technology?
? Genetic engineering
? Understanding the brain and the nature of thought
? Likelihood of interaction with intelligent extraterrestrial life
? Logic devices that will be cheap, smart, human-adaptive,
and widely distributed
? Ability to synthesize arbitrarily complex organic materials
tailored for specific biological or physical properties
? Understanding the strong interactions and the possibility of
new energy and radiation sources
? High energy laser in space
? Construction of large structures in space
? Breakthrough in ASW that will seriously impact our
undersea deterrent
CONFIDENTIAL
Scientific & Technical
Intelligence Committee
Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098AO00500020004-1
 CONFIDENTIAL
W H ATpRR --LPEe9o5T:[CA [S79A [ JEEN?
? Worldwide general threats are seen to outweigh Soviet-specific
high,technology threats
? Worldwide general threats are highly economic-related while
Soviet-specific threats are not seen as primarily economic in nature
? Some unusual threats that stand out are:
? Soviet attacks on or from space
? Economic warfare - .e-~I- = c&-yj c_
? Chemical/Agricultural warfare
? Weather/Climate modification
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? Break-up of U.S. alliances is seen to put a premium on naval superiority but
at the same time one wants to look for unconventional means of global transpl
? Some surprising gaps
- Y\-~ llen~ =
? Conventional land warfare
? Electronic warfare
? Vulnerability of computer-based systems to penetration
Scientific & Technical
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Approved For Release 2005/04/28 : CIA-RDP79M00098A000500020004-1