REVISED CASCON II COMPUTER-AIDED SYSTEM FOR HANDLING INFORMATION ON LOCAL CONFLICTS USER'S MANUAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79M00096A000500010016-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 87
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: September 1, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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REVISED
COMPUTER-AIDED SYSTEM FOR HANDLING
INFORMATION ON LOCAL CONFLICTS
Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Robert R. Beattie, and G. Allen Moulton
with
Robert M. Mandel and John.J
Arms Control Project
Center for International Studies
Massachusetts Institute of.Teehnology
Cambridge, Massachusetts
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REVISED
September 1, 1972
COMPUTER-AIDED SYSTEM FOR HANDLING
Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Robert R. Beattie, and G. Allen Moulton
with
Robert M. Mandel and John J. Spear
The present manual completely supersedes
CASCON II: User's Manual (C/71-10) dated August 1971,
which should be destroyed.
This is the second revised edition of the user's manual in
CASCON: Computer-Aided System for Handling
Information on Local Conflicts
(Vol. II, Appendix B, pp. 111-158) ACDA/WEC-141, C/70-8.
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1.1 Preface .................................................... 1
1.2 Introduction ............................................... 2
1.3 Definitions ................................................ 9
1.4 Commands .................................................. 14
1.5 Additional Information .................................... 16
2.1 Introduction .............................................. 23
2.2 select or Zist ............................................ 25
2.2.1 select (or list) cases .................................... 27
2.2.2 name cases or actors) ................................... 31
2.2.3 select (or Zist) factors .................................. 31
2.3 Zist ...................................................... 34
2.3.1 Zist cases ................................................ 34
2.3.1.1 list case codes ........................................... 35
2.3.2 list factor categories .................................... 35
2.3.3 list factors Zong text .................................... 35
2.3.4 list factor codes ......................................... 36
2.3.5 list measures ............................................. 36
2.4 display ................................................... 39
2.5 enter .....................................................42
2.6 modify .................................................... 45
2.7 compare ................................................... 46
2.7.1 Information ............................................... 53
2.7.2 Comparability ............................................. 54
2.7.3 Distance .................................................. 55
2.8 define .................................................... 58
2.9 command ................................................... 58
2.10 exit and "save status?" .....................................
PART 5 THE RECONCILIATION OF DISAGREED CODINGS
OF FACTORS ................................................76
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(continued)
Figure 1. Factor Coding Form (Sample Page) ...................21
Figure 2. CASCON 11-52 Cases and Case Codes ..................24
Figure 3 Factor Reconciliation Scale ........................ 76
Figure 4. Original 27 Cases in CASCON I ......................82
Figure 5. 25 New Cases Added to CASCON II ....................83
Table 1. Sample Statistics for 3 Coders ........................ 78
Table 2. Sample Statistics for 2 Coders ........................78
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1.1 Preface
What follows assumes a general background knowledge of the MIT
CASCON project and the research on local conflicts out of which it
grew. Those unfamiliar with its philosophy and purposes are referred
to section 1.2.2 below.
CASCON II is an expanded and improved version of the first pilot
CASCON system developed at MIT in 1969 under a contract to the US
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. (The report of this research
can be found in Robert R. Beattie and Lincoln P. Bloomfield, CASCON:
Computer-Aided System for Handling Information on Local Conflicts ACDA/WEC-141
and in an article by Bloomfield and Beattie entitled "Computers and
Policy-Making: The CASCON Experiment" in the Journal of Conflict
Resolution for Spring 1971).
CASCON II was developed at the MIT Center for International Studies
in 1971-1972, in collaboration with the University of Michigan. Its
data base now contains 52 post World War II cases of local conflict.
For the person who wants to use, or experiment with CASCON II
on-line, all the necessary background, definitions, and instructions
can be found in this Users Manual. Code books can be secured by writing
the Publications Office, Center for International Studies, M.I.T.
General background in the Introduction (Section 1.2)
like the rest of the textual material in this revised manual, is written
here in the form in which the computer will print it out. (After becoming
familiar with the system, the user can log into CASCON in a way that
omits all the introductory material).
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Definitions, key words, and commands used in CASCON are found in
1.3 and 1.4. In addition to being able to log into CASCON in a way that
omits any such materials, the user can ask CASCON at any time for the
lists of definitions or commands or for any specific definition.
In addition to an expanded data base of post-World War II cases,
and considerably more flexibility and versatility in using the system,
CASCON II also contains a summary precis of all 52 cases, organized
by "Phases," that affords the user a quick historical refresher as to
the facts. The user can also now enter data on a new case in minimum
time.
Finally, CASCON is geared to the needs and interest of
the user, with emphasis on the special requirements of a government
or international organization official, but with ample scope for
experimental or research use by scholar and student. The conflict-
relevant values assigned to each of 482 factors for the 52 cases in
the data base reflect coding of every factor for every case by the
most authoritative experts available to us - former high government
officials, international mediators and negotiators, and scholars, as
well as presently serving government officials. Part 5 describes how
we reconciled their differences in coding.
1.2 Introduction
The CASCON system requires little or no knowledge of computers.
It operates in an interactive format which leads you through
each series of commands. In addition, the system responds to errors
by explaining what it expects in the given situation. Thus, it is
almost impossible to go wrong, once a few basic operations are under-
stood. CASCON II is presently on MIT's MULTICS System and arrangements
must be made by each outside user with the MIT Information Processing
Center. The program language is Pl-1.
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When you sit down at the console and initiate CASCON II, the
following sequence occurs. The user logs into MULTICS. Once on
MULTICS, the user types Cascon and presses Carriage Return of his
console or teletype (all user actions are shown in this manual in
italics). CASCON then says:
Enter your user id
User then types his ID (which will be given him along with login
procedures). User presses Carriage Return and computer proceeds to
print out the introduction to CASCON, which looks like this:
Computer-Aided System to Handle Information on Local
Conflicts, i.e., small Wars or potentially military
clashes within or between all but the major powers.
Developed by the Arms Control Project, Center for In-
ternational Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
nology. Original version prepared under contract to
the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
and technically designed and programmed by Cambridge
Computer Associates. Revised and expanded by CIS,
MIT during 1971-72 in collaboration with University of
Michigan. Present version is CASCON II.
After this the computer asks:
Would you like an introduction to Cascon II? Yes
or no, please.
1.2.1 If user types no and presses Carriage Return, CASCON puts him
in a position to give commands and use the system. First, however, it
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makes sure he is familiar with the kinds of things CASCON does and
the exact words required (computers are very precise and literal
instruments!). It says:
For the list of definitions type:
list definitions
For the list of commands type:
list commands
otherwise proceed with the commands you wish.
If the user then types
Zist definitions; (followed by Carriage Return)
CASCON prints the list (shown in section 1.3 of this manual).
list commands; (followed by Carriage Return)
CASCON prints the list (shown in section 1.4). Note that the user may
also command CASCON to print out either list at an time during his
session at the console. To refresh his memory as to the exact defini-
tion of a key word or command, he may also ask CASCON, anytime it says
type command :
de fine
followed by the definition or command he wants defined, as in:
define measures;
1.2.2 If the user answered CASCON's initial query with:
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and pressed the Carriage Return, CASCON will then give him a more de-
tailed background on the theory and practice of CASCON, as follows:
CAS CON II
Uses of CASCON
1. While it is still experimental, CASCON II represents a
further step toward a comprehensive system that could serve as a
useful tool for the government or international organization offi-
cial engaged in crisis--or preferably pre-crisis--diplomacy and
decision-making, as well as for the scholar studying conflict and
its prevention. When fully developed such a system could serve as
an aid to his memory by storing for him data on an incipient conflict
situation, and producing for him at will both that stored data, and
stored data on past local conflicts (organized as explained below)
that had in common with his new case violence-generating or violence-
minimizing factors (see below). It can also serve as an aid to his
imagination by comparing the factors in a new case with factors in
previous conflicts, as well as by listing historically-relevant con-
flict-minimizing policy measures.
Conflict Models
2. The way the data are organized and stored is based on a
dynamic structural model of local conflict developed by Bloomfield
and Leiss at MIT. According to that model, all conflicts can go through
a number of phases. Phase 1 starts when a dispute begins.
Phase 2 is the beginning of a conflict, signalled by at least one side
viewing the dispute in potentially military terms. If hostilities break
out involving significant violence the conflict is in Phase 3 within
which it can intensify (escalate) or not. If fighting ends but the
conflict remains, it is in Phase 4. If only the dispute remains, it is
Phase S. Ideally, the case can go to settlement (S) at any time. CASCON
II only lists data for Phases 1, 2, and 3. A future computerized system
may contain all phases. (Actually Phase 4 is often very similar to
Phase 2, except that in Phase 4 there has already been some fighting.)
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Factors
3. Within each phase there are factors--that is, events,
conditions, actions, and the like--which influence the direction of
the conflict toward or away from violence-i.e., are conflict-pro-
moting, or conflict-minimizing. Each factor is, by definition,
considered to be influential on the course of the conflict, tending
toward or away from violence. (The developers of CASCON II are fully
aware that minimizing violence, while important, is not always the
most valued goal. CASCON II does seek to aid the statesman or
peacemaker who in a particular instance does wish to avert or mini-
mize violence.)
Data Base
4. In the 52 cases of conflicts since World War II analyzed
by the MIT researchers (including 13 by the Browne + Shaw International
Studies Division of Bolt Beranek and Newman under an ACDA contract) we
identified a total of 482 factors, distributed among the various phases
of conflict.
Measures
5. For each factor, we then defined policy measures that would
be appropriate (though not necessarily desirable) if one's only aim
were violence-minimization. In general, measures are intended to reinforce
a factor when in a particular case it is seen as conflict-minimizing,
or to offset that factor when deemed conflict-intensifying. It can
happen that a conflict-intensifying factor is reinforced if opposing it
might incite greater violence and vice versa. In many instances the
measures were in fact taken in a given case--unhappily in many instances
they were not.
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Categories of Factors and Cases
6. Based on the case-specific factors found in the original cases
studies, the 482 generally-worded factors are classified in CASCON II as
to category (military, economic, ethnic, etc.), as to whether in a par-
ticular past case a given factor was present, as to whether influen-
tial in promoting or averting violence, and, if so, how much (little,
some, much). The latter judgements represent a composite of factor
coding for each case by high former officials and experts who were of-
ficially involved in each case and by recognized scholarly authorities
on a given conflict case. The CASCON data base contains 52 cases of
which 30 are primarily interstate, 16 primarily internal, and 6 colonial.
Hostilities occurred in 37. 13 are Latin American, 19 Middle East and
North African, 7 African, 10 Asian, and 3 European.
A New Case
7. For a new case, which may be still in the dispute stage,
i.e., Phase 1, the user must do some basic things. He will have to
name it, say what phase it is in, identify two sides, and say which
side is the 'status-quo' and which is the non-status quo'. (These
labels are non-ideological and refer to the side initiating action to
achieve its ends vis a vis the side in 'possession'.) He will also
have to translate (with CASCON's help) the factors he knows about into
the system's general factors, and assign a value to each factor accor-
ding to whether he adjudges it as influential in moving the conflict
either toward or away from violence. CASCON II is designed so that
this translation of real-life facts, reports, etc. about an incipient
(or acute) conflict situation can be made by the user right at the
computer console, with the system asking him questions and telling him
in what terms to give his answers. Of course, once he becomes familiar
with the system he can bypass the initial explanations, lists, defini-
tions, and so forth.
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Summary
8. To sum up what CASCON II can do for the user--1) It will
store in a standardized form any data he gives it on a developing local
conflict, and retrieve data for him on command. 2) It will tell him
what additional data are lacking in the current case, either by category
or in terms of additional factors within a particular category. 3) It
will retrieve for him information about any or all of the 52 cases now
stored in the data base, either by case, or by category, or by factor,
or by relative weighting accorded to particular factors in past con-
flicts. 4) It will print out the conflict-controlling policy measures
the MIT researchers derived as appropriate to offset the factor if
the latter was violence-promoting, or to enhance the factor if it was
violence-minimizing. Naturally, some of these measures will not be
appropriate to a present case, although some might be. 5) It will make
some comparisons of the present case with past data on the basis of a
statistical analysis (which at this stage is still experimental), as
well as indicate which factors were also present in the earlier similar
case.
User Needs
9. There are only two things the user should have that are not
in the computerized system--1) Instructions on how to use CASCON II,
and 2) a CASCON II Coding Form (if he does not have the latter he can
still code his new case on-line after reading the User's Manual).
Reference
10. Details of the CASCON experiment can be read in "Computers
and Policy Making" by L.P. Bloomfield and R. Beattie in Journal of
Conflict Resolution spring 1971.
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After printing this out, the system will then print:
Type command
which puts the user at command level where he can use CASCON's various
capabilities.
1.3 Definitions
If the user types List definitions; , the system will print a list
of the terms defined. If he wishes individual definitions he uses the
define command (see section 2.8). For convenience they are all listed
here.
dispute
A quarrel or disagreement over something
substantive, or the existence of a divi-
sive issue between two parties. Neither
of these parties has yet considered,
or at least has not yet demonstrated willingness
to resort to military force. This is phase
1 of the Bloomfield-Leiss model. If a
dispute (but not conflict) situation exists
after hostilities, it is called post-
hostilities dispute - phase 5 of the MIT
model (not in CASCON II).
A dispute in which at least one of the
parties has considered or demonstrated
willingness to use military force to re-
solve the dispute but as yet has not actually
done so. This is phase 2 of the MIT model.
If a conflict situation exists after hos-
tilities, it is called post-hostilities
conflict - phase 4 of the MIT model (not in
CASCON II) .
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hostilities A conflict in which military force is
actively being employed to resolve the
dispute. This is phase 3 of the MIT
model.
"military force" Inflicting casualties and/or destroying
property in a systematic way so as to
achieve a political goal.
phase An identifiable stage in the course of a
local conflict. The first three phases in
the MIT model are dispute, conflict, hos-
tilities.
Conditions, events, or actions within a
phase which generate pressures that tend
either toward or away from transition of
the conflict across a threshold into the
next phase. In phases 1 and 2, factors
that tend to keep the local conflict in the
current phase or tend toward settlement are
factors that tend away from violence, i.e..,
violence-minimizing factors. In phases 1
and 2, factors that tend to push the local
conflict to the next phase are factors tend-
ing toward violence, i.e., violence-promoting
factors. In phase 3, factors that tend to
increase the level of hostilities or tend
to prolong them are violence-promoting fac-
tors. Factors that tend to lower the level
of hostilities or terminate them are violence-
minimizing factors.
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Movement across an inter-phase thresh-
hold as the result of the factor-gen-
erated pressures during a phase.
threshold A convenient point of demarcation in
time to separate the phases.
A policy or action which, if taken,
might alter the course of a local con-
flict by reinforcing factors that are
violence-minimizing and/or offsetting
factors that are violence-promoting.
A subject grouping of factors within
each phase. The 11 category names can
be printed by the 'list factor cate-
gories' command (explained below).
"user case" User-created cases (as opposed to cases
in the CASCON II data base) are called
user cases. This includes all new cases
originally entered by the user and also
after they are modified by him.
"data base" The information stored within the CASCON
II system concerning 52 previous cases.
descriptor
An item of descriptive information about
a case. Descriptive information includes
the name of the case, its dates, the names
of the status-quo and non status-quo
sides, and the dates of the phases. (This
information is in CASCON II for the 52
cases, as developed by MIT historical re-
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"ally/supporter"
searchers. For user cases it is supplied
by the user and can be amended by him.) It
also includes a brief summary of the facts
of each case.
The kind of dynamic effect that a particular
factor has with regard to changing the level
of violence in a particular case. A factor
may be coded as having no effect (i.e., no
information, not present, or present but
not having any influence with regard to the
level of violence) or it may be coded as
having one of two kinds of effects - toward
increasing the level of violence, or away
from increasing the level of violence.
The degree to which a specified factor has
an effect toward or away from increased violence.
There are three degrees of influences -- little,
some, and much.
One of the conflicting parties to a dispute or
conflict, i.e., the "status quo" side or the
"non-status quo" side, referring not to ide-
ology but to who is seeking change.
A nation or other group that is in some way
committed to one of the sides. This may be
a treaty commitment, an ideological commit-
ment, or some other general commitment.
neighbor A nation or other entity geographically ad-
jacent to one of the sides.
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"disputed area" A geographical location, or locations,
about which a dispute revolves or within
which it takes place. While the meaning
will vary from case to case, "disputed
area" is interpreted as narrowly and
specifically as possible in each case
coded.
A state which possesses a preponderant
share of the world's political, military,
and economic resources, and which has the
capability of bringing this power to bear
on a world wide base (currently U.S.A. and
U.S.S.R.).
"great power" A state which possesses a major share of the
world's political, military, and economic
resources.
"buffer area" A geographical area outside of the "disputed
area" which separates the two sides from
each other; separates at least one of the
sides from the disputed area; or surrounds
the disputed area.
"political group" A collection of individuals or other elements
that may act in a coherent fashion in pur-
suit of a political goal.
negotiation A structured interaction through which par-
ties at issue try, or appear to try, to formal-
ize an accomodation of their common and con-
flicting interests.
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"public opinion/world opinion"
The verbalized reactions and attitudes of
individuals, organizations, and/or states,
concerning a dispute or some element of it.
Public opinion, in particular, may comprise
either world opinion or opinion within a
side or another individual nation or party.
1.4 Commands
If the user types
list commands;
followed by Carriage Return, the system will print the following:
Compares user case (or any case in the data
base) to some or all of the cases in the
data base (see manual for details).
Prints brief descriptions of individual
CASCON commands.
define Prints a definition from the list of definitions.
display
Displays part or all of the information
stored for a specified case. This can
include 'descriptors' such as full name,
dates, sides, phases with their dates,
case name codes, and whether interstate,
internal, or colonial, and historical
summaries.
enter Enables the user to create a new case.
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exit Causes the current run of CASCON to be
terminated.
list definitions or Prints a list of definitions or texts of
list commands commands.
Prints a list of all the full case names in
the data base as well as their dates and case
codes. The user can thenceforth use these
codes in instructing or interrogating CASCON.
list case codes Prints a list of the three-letter case codes.
list cases in Prints code names of the group of cases
previously selected and named.
list factor categories Prints a list of the factor categories.
list factor codes Prints a table of effects and influences
and their corresponding numerical values.
list factors in Prints shortened test of factors in list
previously selected and named.
list factors long text Prints full text of factors specified.
Prints measures logically corresponding to
specified factor(s), or by either factor
category or measure category, or the full
catalogue of measures.
modify Alters or adds descriptors or factor
codings of a user case.
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name cases (or factors) Enables user to give a temporary name to
a group in order to subject it to
CASCON routines.
print Prints list of cases developed in compare
routine.
Chooses cases on the basis of criteria
specified by user and groups them for
analysis or comparison.
Chooses factors on basis of criteria
specified by user, i.e., phase number
(1, 2, or 3), case (using case code name
effect, influence, or special case group
selected by user.
1.5 Additional Information
Quiet entry to CASCON:
After you become familiar with CASCON you can skip even the paragraph
and questions by answering
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to CASCON's question:
Do you want to continue your previous session?
If you type
yes
followed by Carriage Return, it will print
Type command.
You then can give it any of CASCON's commands. The sequence for getting
into CASCON this way would then look something like the following:
Enter your user id Zpb
Do you want to continue your previous session? yes
Type command.
Factor Numbers:
Factor numbers are always written by the user prefixed with the
Phase number, e.g., 1-67, 2-103, 3-2. The numbers and hyphen should
always be connected with no space between them.
Command Specifications:
Whenever the user types a command or response or gives a name in which
he uses more than one word, he must either hyphenate the phrase or enclose
the item in quotation marks. Situations in which this commonly occurs
might involve group names or user-entered case names (e.g., "dispute only",
"cases Zike mine", "ulster 2", etc.). Therefore user must type it the same
way.
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Command Execution:
Each command must be followed with a semi-colon in order to be complete.
Several commands may be typed on a single line, but each must be followed
by a semi-colon. These commands will be executed in the order in which
they are typed.
Only when the user hits the "Carriage Return" key after typing the line
will the system notice that a line has been typed, and execute any commands
on that line. If no semi-colon is put at the end of a command but the
Carriage Return is hit, CASCON will wait for completion of the command be-
fore responding.
Case Codes Abbreviations:
All of the 52 cases in the CASCON II data base must be referred to by
a short 3-letter case code whenever typed by the user. The codes are found
in Section 2.1 below, or can be obtained on-line by instructing CASCON to
Zist cases
Note that they always consist of three capital letters.
Getting Lost:
Typing a question mark and a Carriage Return will instruct CASCON
to type out what it is currently looking for at any time the user is at
the console by simply typing:
define or command
followed by the appropriate word, a semi-colon and Carriage Return.
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Cutting Short a Sequence:
If you want CASCON to stop doing the step it is following (such
as printing out a list) hit the Interrupt (or ATTN) button on the console,
and CASCON will stop. You will temporarily go out of CASCON and back to
MULTICS, which will print the word
QUIT
and a so-called "ready message" , e.g.
QUIT
r 1915 $.85
If you then type
pi
and a Carriage Return you will get back to CASCON which should say:
Type Command.
You then then can go on.
If there seems to be any problem at that point, it is always possible
to get back into CASCON from MULTICS by simply typing:
and a Carriage Return. The system will respond by asking for the user's
ID and then asking if he wants to continue the previous session. If he
says
CASCON then skips all the preliminaries and goes straight to command level.
The sequence will look like this:
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
QUIT
r 1735 $.17
Cascon
Cascon
Enter your user id 1pb
Do you want to continue your previous session? yes
Type command.
Factor Coding:
All case data are coded in the data base (and new "user cases" are
entered into the system) in accordance with the following scale:
Code
Meaning
l No information is available about this
factor.
Factor is not present in this case (or
statement is not true for case).
Factor is present (or true) in this case but
has no effect on the case.
Factor has much influence toward intensified
conflict
Factor has some influence toward
intensified conflict.
Factor has little influence toward intensified
conflict.
Factor has much influence away from
intensified conflict.
Factor has some influence away from intensified
conflict.
Factor has little influence away from
intensified conflict
Figure 1. is a sample page from the CASCON II Revised Coding Form.
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-20-
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Approved For Release 2004/091- CIA-RDP79MOO096AO00500010016-1
 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
Typing Errors:
If you make a typing error, there are two ways to correct it.
a. Pressing the # key tells the system to ignore the character just
typed; thus, ys#es will be interpreted as yes.
b. Pressing the @ key tells the system to ignore all previous characters
on the same line; thus, nwe@new will be interpreted as new.
It might look something like this:
Type command. display QUT descritpros@display QUT descriptors
factor 1-8#18 to 1-25;
Type command. display QUT descritp##ptors factor 1-13 to 1-25;
If you do not happen to notice that you have made a typing error,
the system will respond (after you press Carriage Return) with an
appropriate message.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
PART 2
CASCON COMMANDS
2.1 Introduction
After you have completed the introductory material (or if you have
skipped it), CASCON will say:
Type command.
You can respond with any of the commands described in this part of the
manual. Certain of these commands lead you through a series of questions
to which you must respond as described in the following sections.
It is useful to emphasize here CASCON's two main capabilities. First,
you can manipulate the 52-case data base in various ways, e.g., asking
which of the cases have certain factors in common, or had factors in cer-
tain categories or phases that were expertly coded as tending toward or
away from intensified conflict. Second, you can put in a new case of your
own choosing and coding, and then have CASCON make various comparisons
between your "user case" and some or all of the data base cases.
The 52 cases in the data base and their codes are shown in Figure 2.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
FIGURE 2. CASCON II - 52 CASES Short Case
Code
ADEN (SOUTH YEMEN)
1963-67
ADY
ALGERIA
1954-62
ALG
ALGERIA - MOROCCO
1962-63
ALM
ANGOLA
1961
ANG
ARAB - ISRAELI WAR
1967
AIW
BAHRAIN
1970
BAH
BAY OF PIGS
1961
BOP
BOLIVIA
1967
BOL
CONGO (KATANGA)
1960-63
CON
CUBA
1952-59
CUB
CYPRUS (COMMUNAL)
1963-
CYC
CYPRUS (ENOSIS)
1954-59
CYE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
1965
DOM
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - HAITI
1963
DRH
ECUADOR - USA
1963-
EUS
EL SALVADOR - HONDURAS
1969-
ESH
GHANA - UPPER VOLTA
1964-66
GUV
GREEK INSURGENCY
1944-49
GRI
GUATEMALA
1954
GUA
GUINEA - IVORY COAST
1966-67
GIC
GUINEA - PORTUGUESE GUINEA
1970
GPG
GUYANA - VENEZUELA
1970
GYV
INDIA - CHINA BORDER
1954-62
ICB
INDIA - PAKISTAN
1965-66
INP
INDONESIAN - MALAYSIAN CONFRONTATION
1963-65
IMC
INDONESIAN WAR OF INDEPENDENCE
1945-49
IWI
IRAQ (KURDS)
1958-63
IRK
KASHMIR
1947-49
KAS
KUWAIT - IRAQ
1961-63
KUI
LAOS
1959-62
LAO
LEBANON
1957-58
LEB
MALAYAN EMERGENCY
1948-60
MAE
MOROCCO - MAURITANIA
1957-70
MOM
MOROCCO - SPAIN
1956-
MOS
MUSCAT & OMAN
1957-
MUS
NICARAGUA - COSTA RICA
1955-56
NCR
NICARAGUA - HONDURAS
1957-60
NIH
NIGERIA (BIAFRA)
1967-70
NIB
PALESTINE
1947-49
PAL
PANAMA
1964
PAN
PHILIPPINES (HUKS)
1946-54
PHH
QUEMOY - MATSU
1954-58
QUM
SINAI
1956
SIN
SOMALIA - ETHIOPIA - KENYA
1960-64
SEK
SOUTH TYROL
1957-69
STY
SOVIET - IRAN
1945-46
SOI
SUEZ
1956
SUE
SYRIA - TURKEY
1956-57
SYT
TRIESTE
1945-54
TRI
VENEZUELA
1960-63
VEN
WEST IRIAN
1957-62
WIR
YEMEN
1962-69.
YEM
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
There are five basic types of user commands in the CASCON system:
(1) The select commands ( 2.2 -) tell the system to assemble a
set of cases, or factors, on the basis of criteria you have specified,
for your further use in analysis or comparison.
(2) The List commands (2.2-, 2.3-) tell the system (a) to print
information about the classification of data in the system, as
factor definitions, codes, categories, etc., or (b) to retrieve names of
cases or factors which satisfy user-specified criteria,including sets of
cases or of factors you have selected and named.
(3) dispZa'u (2.4) tells the system to print case information
(descriptors, categories, factors, summaries) it has stored; this also
includes information about a user case that has been provisionally stored.
(4) enter (2.5) is used to create a new user case or to add
information to, or modify, a current user case.
(5)
compare (2.7) tells the system to compare the current user
case to data in the 52 data-base cases, either in toto, or grouped by
six different types.
Each command is discussed in one of the following sections.
2.2 select or list
This command selects and stores sets of cases or factors
for manipulation by the user. He has CASCON make such groups by giving
it criteria from which to form such a set. If he starts the procedure
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
with the word select, it means the group will be formed as commanded but
not printed out at once. Instead it will be stored internally in the
computer, which will acknowledge that it has done the operation by simply
indicating the number in the group selected, e.g.,
Type command, select cases in hostilities;
40 cases selected.
Type command.
In order to be able to use his results later, the user should give his
name cases alpha;
name factors Asia;
etc. Then later, when he wants to print out the group, he uses the list
cases in command, as:
list cases in alpha;
list factors in asia;
The other way to call up the list he had stored under select is to refer
to the group by an asterisk (*), if it is the last such group formed. In
that case he can have its component cases or factors printed by saying
list cases (or factors) in *?
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
If, on the other hand, he wants to have his selected cases or
factors printed out at once, he starts the routine with the word
List rather than the word select. In that event the group of cases (or
factors) will be printed out as soon as he has completed the command with
a semi-colon and Carriage Return.
2.2.1 select (or list) cases:
This command starts the process of building a set of cases from the
52 case data base on the basis of criteria provided by the user. This
command enables him to make and either retrieve or store a list of every data
base case (1) in which a given factor has the effect and influence he is
interested in and specifies, or (2) any factor in a given category has the
specified effect and influence, or (3) which was interstate, internal or
colonial, or (4) which did not intensify to conflict or hostilities,
or went to hostilities or to settlement. These seven groups are already
in CASCON; the user's operations can be limited at his discretion to cases
in one or more particular groups that interest him. The names they have
in the system are as follows; these must be used correctly:
interstate
internal
colonial
"dispute only", i.e., never went beyond Phase 1
"conflict only", i.e., never went into hostilities
hostilities, i.e., went to Phase 3
settlement
(Note that compound words which are not hyphenated must have quotation marks
around them.)
Select (or list) cases
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
followed by the criteria he is using in making his selection. The first
Factor:
Right after typing select (or list) cases he types factor followed
by the factor or factors he is interested in. Factor numbers are
always given with the Phase number first, followed by a hyphen and then
the factor number from the phase in question (e.g., 1-67, 2-103, 3-2). Al-
ternatively, he can type in the name of an entire category, which will
include all the factors in that category, for that phase. In this case he
types category and its name followed by phase number (1, 2, or 3).
The factors are divided into eleven categories, and if the user wishes
to limit the search to a particular category he would use one of the following
names. The system uses the first word only of the name.
Previous or general relations between sides
Great power involvement
External relations generally
Military-strategic
International organization (UN, legal, opinion)
Ethnic (refugees, minorities)
Economic
Internal political
Characteristics of one side
Communication and information
Actions in disputed area
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So far then he might have typed:
select cases factor 1-67, 2-103, 3-2;
(or Zist) (or category communication 2; )
A user-named group of factors (constructed as described below) may be
used in place of a category name, e.g., category alpha 2;
Effect:
This is the direction "toward" or "away" from intensified conflict
according to which he wishes CASCON to select cases. Effect also in-
cludes "no info", or "pni" (present but no influence). Factors are also
coded as not present "np". He does not type the word "effect" but simply
toward, away, no info, pni or np. He can also use present to include
all factors coded as having an effect; or info for factors other than those
coded "no info".
Influence:
The effect "toward" or "away" can either be used alone, or modified
to specify the degree of influence toward or away from intensified con-
flict, e.g., much, some, or little. If he wishes to, he types in one of
those three words before either toward or away. He can thus limit
the search to any of the following:
toward
away
little away
some away
much away
little toward
some toward
much toward
pni
np
no info
present
info
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
Thus what he has typed so far might read:
select cases factor 1-67 2-75 2-101 3-69 much toward;
(or list) (or category economic 1)
(or category alpha 3)
Group:
He can further limit the list of cases he is generating with these
criteria by specifying type of case, i.e., one of the basic groups into
which all 52 cases are divided (interstate, internal, and colonial), or by
"dispute only", "conflict only", hostilities, or settlement. If he wishes
to have the selection of cases limited to one such group, he adds in, fol-
lowed by the name of one of these seven groups, or a group he may have
created himself. If he has neglected to name a group just selected, he
can still print out the list of that set of cases by typing an asterisk
(*) after in.
Say the user wants to have CASCON make a list of all the cases in
the data base that contain factors relating to internal politics in the
earliest(or "dispute') phase, that expert coders have deemed to tend away
from the intensification of the dispute. He wishes to have the search
limited to cases of interstate disputes. His command would go like this:
select cases category internal 1 away in interstate;
If he used select, CASCON will respond with, e.g.,
42 cases selected
Type command.
If he used Zist, CASCON would respond with, e.g.,
42 cases selected.
ADY
ALG
etc.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
2.2.2 name cases (or factors):
Having instructed CASCON to make such an internal set of cases
having the characteristics specified, he can give a name to the group
in order to subject it (rather than the entire data base) to other
CASCON routines such as list factors and compare. The name given it
refers to the immediately preceding group selected. That name should,
of course, not be exactly the same as one of the 52 data base case names or
codes, or the 7 special groups. A typical temporary group name might
be "peace-making". (Remember about quotes around phrases employing
spaces.) Particularly after employing the compare routine, one might give
the resultant group a name such as cases-like-mine (or "cases like mine").
A command might be:
name cases "peace making";
If the user wants the list of resultant cases printed out, he starts
a command with list. If he wants the grouping stored without being
printed out, he starts with select. By saying name factors the same pro-
cedure can be used to give a working name to a group of factors produced
by the select or list factors routine (below).
2.2.3 select (or list factors) :
This command does for factors what the previous command did for cases.
The user employs it to build a list of factors selected by CASCON from the
data base of 52 cases x 482 factors, in accordance with criteria specified
by the user, adding up to a list of factors certain cases have in common.
The criteria he uses to build a list of factors which a certain case con-
tains, or a group of cases has in common, is as follows in the order shown:
Phase:
The factors may be limited to a given phase by typing phase and the
desired phase number: 1, 2, or 3.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
Case, Influence, and Effect:
The factors may be selected by their effect and influence in a given
case or groups of cases. The user types the word case followed by a three
letter capitalized code name for the case desired, or the name of the
group desired. A reference to the user's own case may be made by specify-
ing the code name he gave it. Following the case or group name, an effect
and (if desired) influence, (as discussed under select cases) may be typed.
If he is asking about one case, the factors which had the given effect
(qualified by influence if typed) are printed (or stored, depending if
he used select or Zist). If he asks about a group of cases, the factors
which had the given effect in any of the cases are typed in a single list.
So far, then, he might have said:
select factors phase 3 case ALG much toward;
(or list)
Group :
To restrict the search to only a portion of the factors, a previously
stored group of factors may be referenced by typing in followed by a group
name. Such a group may be either a user group constructed by the name
factors command, or a factor category name.
Using Zist (or afterward saying list factors in ;) would produce the
stored text of the factors in question, e.g.:
Type command.
list factors phase 3 case ALG much toward in military;
3-66 Force used to strengthen diplomacy.
3-70 Guerrilla warfare.
3-72 Uncontrollable military and para-military units
3-89 Strategic interests continue in importance
Type command.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
Giving a name to that group of factors selected (e.g., gus) would enable
these factors to be manipulated later with either select or List, e.g.,
select factors in gus;
would produce:
Type command.
If the first word is list, the system prints out:
Type command. list factors in gus;
4 factors selected.
3-66 Force used to strengthen diplomacy.
3-70 Guerrilla warfare.
3-72 Uncontrollable military and para=military units
3-89 Strategic interests continue in importance
Type command.
Another example might be:
Type command. list factors phase 3 case mycase some away in
economic;
8 factors selected
3-130 NSQ faces economic problems.
3-131 SQ faces economic problems.
3-132 SQ threatened with cut in economic assistance.
3-133 NSQ threatened with cut in economic assistance.
3-134 Powers threaten economic cut.
3-135 Activities weaken economy.
3-136 Threat to important economic resources.
3-137 Costs of hostilities burdensome.
Type command.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
Or user requests, for every category of the current case, a list
of factors having much influence toward intensified conflict.
Type command. List factors phase 3 case user-case much toward;
13 factors selected.
3-1 SQ removes leader of NSQ.
3-13 Dangers of all-out war increased.
3-14 NSQ gains no advance toward goal.
3-20 NSQ achieves primary goals.
3-61 NSQ moves against SQ supply lines.
3-69 Arms supply not cut.
3-70 Guerrilla warfare.
3-72 Uncontrollable military and para-military units.
3-84 One sides troops too close.
3-88 Forces unable to secure objectives.
3-125 Violence between ethnic groups.
3-126 Ethnic group riots.
3-129 Worry over ethnic groups.
2.3 list
Using a variety of List commands, one can also instruct the system
to list information such as case names, short case codes, factor codes,
factor categories, factors, factors within a given category, the long
text of factor definitions, the measure associated with each factor, and
groups of cases or factors the user has previously selected and named.
2.3.1 List cases;
This command causes the system to list the full names and dates of
the 52 data-base cases, plus the 3-letter case name codes.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
2.3.1.1 List case codes;
This prints out the 3-letter case codes of all the cases in the
data base, plus any "user cases" currently being held.
2.3.2 List factor categories;
This command causes the system to list the names of factor cate-
gories.
2.3.3 list factors Long text
The system responds to List factors Long text by asking for a
factor number. Type in the number of the factor for which you
want a complete definition (such as appears with each factor on
the Factor Coding Form, prefixed by the phase number). This command
is followed by a factor number if user simply wants full text, or
can be substituted for the List factors routine outlined in 2.2.3,
but will print long rather than short text of factors selected.
Type command. list factors Long text 3-Z;
3-1 "Status quo" side removes leader of other side
who could have restraining influence.
Type command.
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 Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1
2.3.4 Zist factor codes;
This command causes the system to print the following table:
Code Name
Meaning
1 noinfo --no information
2 np --not present
3 pni --present, no influence either way
toward --tending toward violence
4 much toward
5 some toward
6 little toward
away --tending away from violence
7 much away
8 some away
9 little away
2.3.5 list measures
The system contains an extensive catalogue of violence-avoiding,
peace-tending policy measures (see Part 4 of this manual) which were
originally derived from the conflict-specific factors in the cases studied
(as described in the Introduction). Each of the 482 general factors in
CASCON II now has one or more general measures associated with it. These
may be called up by asking for measures related to specific factors.
If the measure associated with one specific factor is wanted, the
Type command. Zist measures 2-1;
4 measures selected.
IV.H. Emphasize the benefits of accommodation over
the weakness associated with it
V.G. Discourage either side's hope for decisive vic-
tory (if conflict-minimizing)
V.J. Make certain that both sides are aware of all
the implications of their actions
VI.C. Emphasize areas of common interest between the
sides
Type command.
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If a group of measures associated with more than one factor is wanted,
the several factors are stipulated, e.g.,
Type command. List measures 1-17 1-18 1-19;
Or if a group of factors has been made, the List measures command can tell
CASCON to list the measures for all the factors in that group, saying, e.g.,
List measures in alpha;
or if no name was given, but it was the last group made, one can use
the asterisk, as follows:
Type command. list measures in ';
14 measures selected.
III.C. Promote accommodation of interests
IV.A. Employ multilateral time-stretching devices
IV.C. Promote peaceful multilateral procedures in-
cluding conciliation, good offices, arbi-
tration, or adjudication
IV.C.3. Threaten sanctions against a side unwilling
to accept negotiated solutions
IV.F. Promote multilateral guarantees of any agree-
ments reached, and their implementation
IV.G. Pressure sides to stand by agreements
IV.H. Emphasize the benetits of accommodation over
the weakness associated with it
V.B. Encourage sides to distinguish between minor
irritations and real security threats
V.G. Discourage either side's hope for decisive vic-
tory (if conflict-minimizing)
V.J. Make certain that both sides are aware of all
the implications of their actions
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VI.A. Encourage the sides to clarify their position
and that of involved powers with regard to
the conflict
VI.C. Emphasize areas of common interest between the
sides
VI.D. Encourage toleration of differences
VII.A. Strengthen internal security, domestic controls,
and military and police forces in non-aggres-
sive side while weakening them in the aggres-
sive side
Type command.
He can also have the measures listed according to individual factors in-
stead of lumped together, if he uses the semi-colon in a string of com-
mands to separate them, as follows. (Note the typing correction here.):
Type command. list measures 2-72; list mes#asures 2-90;
3 measures selected.
III.C. Promote accommodation of interests
X.B. Minimize inter-group conflicts
X.C. Support looser forms of political association
3 measures selected.
II.A. Introduce a neutral third party force in the
area of conflict
II.E. Apply political and economic pressures
II.F. Promote action by international and regional
organizations to forestall or condemn aggression
Type command.
Finally, he can use the same criteria employed in Zist factors to
have CASCON find the factors having certain characteristics, but then list
not the factors, but the measures associated with them:
Type command. Zist measures phase 3 case QUT much away;
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If he just commands CASCON to
list measures;
it will print out the entire catalogue which should, of course, be
avoided. If he does this by error he can stop it by hitting the Interrupt
(or ATTN) button on his console and then returning to CASCON as described
in 1.5 under Cutting Short a Sequence.
2.4 display
To instruct the system to display an entire case or some chosen part
of a case, the user types display followed by the case code for the case
desired. He may then call up one or more of the following pieces of
information by specifying how he wants the case displayed:
Descriptors: Typing the word descriptors will cause the case name,
dates, sides, phases, and type to be printed out.
Precis: Type precis to print out a brief historical summary of the
Category: If the user types the word category, followed by a factor
category name and phase number, the system will list the factors in that
category and phase, along with the corresponding factor codings for the
case. Omitting the phase number will cause all phases to be printed.
Factor: The word factor followed by a factor number causes that
factor and its coding for the case to be listed. Any series of factors
and their codings can be printed out by typing to between the first and
last factor number desired.
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For example, to get the descriptors only, the sequence would be:
Type command. display PAN descriptors;
Case PAN
Name ...Panama 1964
Status quo side ...USA
Non status quo side ...Panama
Phase 1 ...to 1/9/64
Phase 2 ...1/9/64-4/3/64
Phase 5 ...4/3/64-
Type command.
To display just the factors (with effects and influences) within a
given category, the following sequence might occur (also showing typing
correction ):
Type command. display fact@dispZay AIW factor
2-1 to 2-10;
Case AIW
2-1 present, no influence
2-2 little away
2-3 some toward
2-4 much toward
2-5 much toward.
2-6 some away
2-7 much toward
2-8 much toward
2-9 not present
2-10 not present
Type command.
CASCON will display a summary of approximately a half page whenever
the user types precis, as in this example:
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Type command. display TRI precis;
TRIESTE, 1945-54
Summary
Phase I: June 1945-August 29, 1953
After the German collapse, Yugoslavia moved to take over Trieste
and the Istrian Peninsula, Italian since 1920, but agreed to temporary
Allied occupation of Trieste. The 1947 Italian Peace Treaty established
a free territory of Trieste with US-UK forces administering the Northern
Zone A, including the city; the Yugoslavs Southern Zone B. Prospects
for permanent government foundered on UN Security Council failure to
agree on a Governor. On May 20, 1948, prior to critical Italian elec-
tions and Tito's break with Moscow, the US, UK, and France proposed
returning all Trieste to Italy. In 1952 Italy was permitted to take
over civil positions in Zone A. Yugoslav proposals
for settlement along ethnic lines were rejected.
Phase II: August 29, 1953-October 1954
With each party fearing action by the other to seize disputed
areas, the Italian Army and Fleet were placed on alert. Yugoslavia took
no immediate countermeasures, but after a US-UK decision to withdraw in
favor of Italy in Zone A was announced on October 8, 1953, she threatened
to send in troops if Italian forces entered. US-UK acceptance of pos-
sible partition quieted the situation and led to eventual agreement out-
side the UN.
(Phase V: October 5-25, 1954)
On October 5, 1954, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed pro-
viding Italy with Zone A, including the city, with a small strip in
the south to go to Yugoslavia. The latter would use the free port,
and institute civil authority in Zone B.
(S: October 25-26, 1954)
On October 25-26 the two countries assumed control-
Type command.
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2.5 enter
The enter command may be used to enter new cases and to modify
previously entered ones. A user case -whether the first time entered
or any other time - may be the subject of select, Zist, display, and
compare commands. The 52 cases in the standard data base may not be
modified.
The enter command is started by typing the word enter and pushing
Carriage Return. Thereafter the system will ask the user for the required
data, starting with a case name (remember, hyphens or quotes for compound
names) followed by a three letter case code not already used. (If the
user does not understand what is required for a particular item, he should
type a question mark followed by a Carriage Return and the system will
type a message describing the item more fully.) Otherwise it goes like
this:
Type command. enter
Case name Ruritania-SZobbovia (Carriage Return)
Case code RUS (Carriage Return)
The sequence continues with CASCON asking, in order, the sides to the
case (status quo and non status quo, i.e., which side is "activist" and
against whom) and the phases of the case so far with their dates.
CASCON will continue to ask for phases until user types end and
makes a Carriage Return. CASCON will then ask to which of CASCON's 7 groups
the new case belongs and will continue to ask until user says end. The
sequence will then look like this:
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Type command. enter
Case name: Ruritania-SZobbovia (Carriage Return)
Case code: RUS (Carriage Return)
Status-quo side: Ruritania (Carriage Return)
Non-status-quo side: SZobbovia (Carriage Return)
Enter phase number and dates for each phase.
Phase 1 1961-70 (Carriage Return)
Phase 2 1970-71 (Carriage Return)
Phase 3 1971 (Carriage Return)
Phase end (Carriage Return)
Groups: internal colonial hostilities (Carriage Return)
Groups: end (Carriage Return)
Enter factors.
The user then enters a list of numbers beginning with a factor number, listed
in standard form (phase number and factor number, separated only by a hyphen,
e.g., 2-108). Following each factor number, one or more codings are
entered. These codings will represent the factor specified, plus successively
numbered factors within the same phase. Whenever the user pushes the
Carriage Return, the system will reply with the number of the next factor
it expects a coding for. If the user wishes to enter a factor out of se-
quence, he simply enters a new factor number and a new sequence is begun.
The list may be terminated by a semi-colon, which ends the enter command.
Entering factors will then resemble the following:
Groups : end
Enter factors 6 2 5 6 5 2 2 6 (Carriage Return)
1-9 9 8 9 8 7 7 5 2 5 (Carriage Return)
1-18 8 2 4 2 2 3 2;
Type Command.
As you can see, this makes it possible for a user who has coded his
new case on a CASCON II codebook to transfer the codes speedily into
CASCON. If he makes a typing error CASCON helps him out, as follows:
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Enter factors 1-15 8 6 2 1 7 (Carriage Return)
1-20 3 6 8 2 6 72 (Carriage Return)
Incorrect coding (72) for factor 1-25.
1-26 1-25 7 2 2 2 3 9 3
1-32 3 2 4 2 6 2 2
1-39 2 4 2 7 2 7 2 3 2 2 5 1 8 8 2 8 2
1-56 2 8 6 2 7 2 2 2 3
1-65 2 2 3 2 3 4 4 4 7 2 2 7 5 2 2
1-80 4 2 7 4 4 5 8 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 2 5
1-96;
Type command.
It is possible to compress the process of entering, and put all the
data in one command, using the word end after giving the desired phrases
and groups as :
Enter phase number and dates for each phase.
Phase 2 "Mar. 4, 1971" 3 "Dec. 7, 1971" end colonial
hostilities internal end
Enter factors 1-1 526 7654567654 3456765;
Finally, if one does not have a codebook, a new case can nevertheless
be entered, with CASCON supplying on-line the short text of each factor.
For this the user employs the word text instead of a coding value after
CASCON prints the factor number, which the user then follows with the code
and a Carriage Return:
Enter factors 1-1 text
1-1 Competing territorial claims.
2
1-2 text
1-2 One side undermined other.
4
1-3 text
1-3 "Middle-ground" liquidated.
4
1-4 text
3-1 SQ removes moderate NSQ leader.
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In this manner the user may enter and completely code a new case
in one session. On the other hand, if he prefers to code only a few
factors at a time, the system allows him to do so, in the modify
routine (below). Of course, the user must be sure to save his previous
work (see 2.9 below).
2.6 moth
Any user case may be modified by using the modify command. When
the user types
modify
plus the case code and a Carriage Return, CASCON will type
modify what?
User can respond with any or all of the following:
name
sqside
nsqside
phases
factors
each followed by the same kinds of specification he used in entering.
Modifying only some factors would look like this:
Type command modify QUT (Carriage Return)
Modify what? factors
Enter factors 1-1 2-1 6 2 5 6 5 2 2 6
2-9 9 8 9 8 7 7 5 2 5
2-18 8 2 4 2 2 3 2
2-25 7 2 2 2 3 9 3 3 2 4 2 6 2 2
2-39 242 72 72 32251 88282
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2-56
2
8
6
2
7
2
2
2
3
2-65
2
2
3
2
3
4
4
4
7
2
2
7
5
2
2
2-80
4
2
7
4
4
5
8
1
2
2
4
4
4
4
2 5
2-96
2
7
1
4
7
3
3
5
2-104
2
7
4
8
8
5
2
2
6
4
2
2
2
3
6 6
2-121
7
1
8
2
3
5
2-127
2
8
2
2
4
1
2
2
1
8
2
2
2
2
2
3-1;
Note that, as with enter, typing a semi-colon ends the modify sequence.
2. 7 compare
The compare command is a key feature of CASCON that enables you to
determine which group of data in the data base is most "similar" to the
data in the current case. You can then display and list information
from the relevant cases for a wide variety of purposes, such as to determine
if you are overlooking important factors or remedial policy measures.
Furthermore, your historical knowledge of actions taken (and their results)
in these cases can act as a guide to possible action in the current case.
(needless to say, no two cases are identical, but clusters of factors are
often similar.) (CASCON II does not include actions taken in the data base
cases, but this data is being researched and hopefully will be in CASCON
III.)
The current case may be compared with all 52 cases in the CASCON II
data base. Or it may be compare with only some of these cases. For
instance, it may be compared only with the 30 cases of interstate conflict,
or the 16 primarily internal cases, or the 6 colonial cases. It may be com-
pared to one of the additional types such as "dispute only", "conflict
only" or hostilities. Or it may be compare to a set of cases the user
designates through the select and name routines.
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CASCON makes the following assumptions:
1. Two cases seem similar if they have present the
same factors, and if these factors have the same
effects (toward and away from intensified conflict)
2. Two cases seem similar if the same effect are not
present in them. The crucial similarity, to repeat, is
in factors, not cases.
These two notions are incorporated in the "comparability statistic"
(2.7.2). The "information statistic" (2.7.1) is designed to measure
simply the amount of mutual information two cases contain. The "distance
statistic" (2.7.3) incorporates a user-controlled USE vector which allows
various hypotheses concerning the relative importance (as regards the
notion of "similarity") of factor values. The USE vector, in effect,
provides a means of weighting each factor value according to one's theory of
its significance (see below).
If the user wants to compare to all 52 cases, he types compare
followed by the name of the case to be compared and 1, 2, or 3 (unless
entire case is to be compared, but it is strongly urged that compare
always be by phases, to give the historically most meaningful results.)
Type command. compare QUT phase 2;
If he wants to compare a case to a more limited group of cases, he
says compare and the case code followed by to plus any single case or group
name, whether a user-created group or one of the 7 pre-constructed groups,
i.e., interstate, internal, colonial, "dispute only", "conflict only",
hostilities, settlement; followed by phase and number 1, 2, or 3.
Type command. compare QUT to hostilities phase 3;
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In doing this he is accepting the standard CASCON "USE" vector
which is explained below. If he wants to specify his own "use values"
(such as a value of 1 for all factors coded as tending away from inten-
sified conflict and 5 for all those tending toward, etc.), he says:
compare QUT to hostilities phase 3 use 0 1 1 1 5 5 5;
If the "use" and "value" are left out, CASCON will assume that the
user wishes it to use the standard USE vector. (The standard USE vector,
and instructions for inserting a different USE vector, are given in 2.7.3.)
The results of a comparison are stored internally and typed out only when
a print command is given. If user only is going to make one comparison
at that session, he can print out these results any time by saying:
print,
If he is going to make several different comparisons he should print out
the results before the next comparison.
CASCON II also has the special feature of printing out only the cases
with the most statistically significant relationship to his case. He
can say print highest 3 (or 6, or whatever number) comparability (or e)
lowest 3 (or 6, or whatever) distance (or d) followed by semi-colon and
Carriage Return. He can also include these commands following his
overall compare instruction to CASCON, separated by semi-colons.
After having such a selected group developed,he can then also name
it, using the name cases command, and be able to apply the Zist factors
and other commands to that(or any other) named group during the current
session at the console. To see what these various compare operations
might look like, there follow some examples of comparing a hypothetical
new case (QUT):
First, a comparison, limited only by phase, to the entire 52-case
data base, and printed out at the time:
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Type command, compare QUT phase 2; print;
53 cases selected.
ADY
.943
.405
.269
ALG
.723
.336
.232
ALM
.723
.371
.230
ANG
.723
.395
.237
AIW
.957
.362
.343
BAH
0.000
0.000
1.000
BOP
.723
.388
.214
BOL
.723
.322
.368
CON
.957
.458
.292
CUB
.723
.412
.218
CYC
.957
.358
.261
CYE
.723
.457
.208
DOM
.723
.347
.217
DRH
.943
.324
.312
EUS
.957
.413
.196
ESH
.901
.300
.222
GUV
.957
.383
.265
GRI
.723
.389
.250
GUA
.716
.298
.278
GIC
.950
.405
.245
GPG
.957
.357
.220
GYV
.957
.394
.350
ICB
.723
.366
.289
INP
.957
.408
.258
IMC
.716
.281
.200
IWI
.709
.374
.286
IRK
.723
.457
.256
KAS
.723
.381
.326
KUI
.723
.385
.152
LAO
.957
.286
.357
LEB
.723
.389
.287
MAE
.723
.300
.132
MOM
.950
.469
.208
MOS
.957
.483
.265
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MUS
.957
.400
.298
NCR
.957
.333
.279
NIH
.950
.301
.306
NIB
.957
.444
.250
PAL
.957
.397
.292
PAN
.957
.449
.202
PHH
.723
.360
.227
QUM
.723
.186
.500
SIN
.723
.321
.250
SEK
.709
.441
.250
STY
.957
.479
.254
SOT
.723
.435
.227
SUE
.723
.336
.194
SYT
.936
.329
.289
TRI
.957
.413
.203
VEN
.723
.373
.200
WIR
.723
.348
.273
YEM
0.000
0.000
1.000
QUT
.957
.651
0.000
Type command.
The user could search the printout for the best matches, i.e., the highest
comparability figures and the lowest distance figures. Or he could say:
Type command. print highest 6 c lowest 6 dd
11 cases selected.
CON
.957
.458
.292
CYE
.723
.457
.208
EUS
.957
.413
.196
IMC
.716
.281
.200
KUI
.723
.385
.152
MAE
.723
.300
.132
MOM
.950
.469
.208
MOS
.957
.483
.265
STY
.957
.479
.254
SUE
.723
.336
.194
QUT
.957
.651
0.000
Type command.
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Or he can have the highest and lowest printed separately as:
Type command. print highest 6 c;
6 cases selected.
EUS
.957
.413
.196
IMC
.716
.281
.200
KUI
.723
.385
.152
MAE
.723
.300
.132
SUE
.723
.336
.194
QUT
.957
.651
0.000
Type command. name cases jim;
Type command.
(Having named the cases jim, he can always ask for that list, or ask
what factors of certain types those cases have in common, etc.)
He can, of course have both highest and lowest selections made by
writing two commands on the same line:
Type command. print highest 10 c; print Lowest 10 d;
10 cases selected.
CON
.957
.458
.292
CYE
.723
.457
.208
IRK
.723
.457
.256
MOM
.950
.469
.208
MOS
.957
.483
.265
NIB
.957
.444
.250
PAN
.957
.449
.202
SEK
.709
.441
.250
STY
.957
.479
.254
QUT
.957
.651
0.000
10 cases selected.
CYE
.723
.457
.208
EUS
.957
.413
.196
IMC
.716
.281
.200
KUI
.723
.385
.152
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MAE .723 .300 .132
PAN .957 .449 .202
SUE .723 .336 .194
TRI .957 .413 .203
VEN .723 .373 .200
QUT .957 .651 0.000
Type command.
It can be seen that CYE and PAN appear on both lists, so these could
be deemed "most similar", subject to the earlier caveats. If he wants to
see what factors tended most to intensification both cases had (in that
particular phase ) that his new case also has, he could say:
Type command. select factors phase 2 case QUT much toward
case CYE much toward case PAN much toward;
3 factors selected.
Type command. list factors in
3 factors selected.
2-90 Militancy increases.
2-91 Negotiations possible only if claim accepted.
2-106 Limited violence assumed to aid diplomacy.
Type command. Zist factors phase 2 case QUT much toward;
17 factors selected.
2-20 NSQ ally indifferent to peaceful settlement.
2-34 Neither side controls some clashes.
2-40 Successful models for NSQ.
2-70 Clashes increase with ethnic dissidents.
2-71 Dissident brethren in other side.
2-72 One side seeks ethnic unification.
2-80 One side exploitative.
2-83 Opposition urges speedier change.
2-84 Area sentiment favors change.
2-90 Militancy increases.
2-91 Negotiations possible only if claim accepted.
2-92 Opposition urges force.
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2-93 Dispute now exaggerated.
2-99 NSQ strategy successful elsewhere.
2-106 Limited violence assumed to aid diplomacy.
2-113 Regional agitation infectious.
2-131 Rebellious groups encouraged.
Type command. name factors bob;
And so forth. The technical basis for these calculations is explained
in the following section.
2.7.1 Information.
The information statistic (I ) gives an indication of the amount of
A,B
confidence to be placed in the results of the other two statistics. A low
value for this statistic indicates that the two cases (i.e., the current
case and the particular data-base base) have only a few factors in common
in the given phase.
The formula for the information statistic (that is, mutual information
in cases A and B) is:
I = TA,B
A,B n
T is the number of factors for which there is information in both
A,B
cases and n is the total number of factors in the phase. The statistic
is printed as a decimal number between 0 and 1. 0 indicates no mutual
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information and 1 indicates that both cases have information for every
factor in the phase.
2.7.2 Comparability. The comparability statistic (M. ?)
is designed to generate a value in accord with this theory of
comparability:
Cases A and B have comparable components if
either or both of the following is true:
1. Both A and B have present many of the same
factors and the values of these common factors
do not have opposite effects (toward or away
from violence).
2. Both A and B have many of the same factors
not present.
The statistic is printed as a decimal number between 0 and 1. High
comparability (i.e., approaching 1) suggests that similar factors are
relevant or not relevant in both cases and that there are few factors
which affect one case but not the other. Low comparability (i.e.,
approaching 0) suggests that factors are not comparable and that little
faith should be placed in the distance statistic.
The formula for comparability is:
-yL +(3N
MA B = F A,B A,B A,B
TA B(1-R)NA B
FA,B
LA,B
is the number of factors present (i.e., codes 3-9)
in both cases.
is the number of factors present but whose effects
tend in opposite directions.
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NA,B
TA,B
is the number of factors not present (i.e., code 2)
in both cases.
is the number of factors for which there is information
(i.e., all codes except 1) in both cases.
Y a coefficient equal to 1.
a coefficient equal to .5.
Note that the coefficients, y and G3, have the effect of
rendering factors not present only half as significant as factors
present.
2.7.3 Distance. The distance statistic (DAB) computes a
normalized average factor value difference between two cases. Cases
with high average factor value difference tend to be dynamically
different; that is, they tend to have the same factors, but these
factors contribute different effects (toward or away from violence)
or degrees of influence (much, some, little). Cases with low average
factor value difference tend to have the same factors, and these factors
make similar contributions to the level of violence.
The distance statistic is printed as a decimal number between
0 and 1. A distance near zero indicates that the two cases have almost
exactly the same factors present, and that these factors have almost
exactly the same effects and influences. A distance near 1 indicates
that the two cases have few similarities in factors or effects.
The formula for the distance statistic is:
DA,B = EJUSE(VAL(i,A))-USE(VAL(i,B))j
FA B?Max
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USE (VAL(i,A))
is the number of factors present (i.e., codes 3-9)
The system finds the value coded for the ith factor
of case A and replaces it (for computational purposes
only; no change is made in the data) with the cor-
responding value from the USE vector.
The result of USE (VAL(i,B)) is subtracted from the
result of the USE VAL(i,A)) and the result is taken as
an absolute (i.e., positive) value.
is the maximum difference between two values in the
USE vector (usually the fourth USE vector value
minus the seventh USE vector value).
The USE vector is a series of seven numbers with or without signs. In
computing the distance statistic, the values from the USE vector replace
the corresponding factor code values. Thus, code 3 (pni) is replaced
by the first number in the USE vector, code 4 (much toward) is replaced
by the second number in the USE vector, and so forth.
The system's standard USE vector is:
If you want to insert your own USE vector in compare, say use
followed by nine numbers, with or without signs. The numbers are separated
by one or more blanks, as follows:
-56-
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FA, B
is the number of factors present (i.e., codes 3-9)
in both cases.
USE(VAL(i,A))
The system finds the value codes for the ith factor of
case A and replaces it (for computational purposes only;
no change is made in the data) with the corresponding
value from the USE vector.
The result of USE)VAL(i,B)) is subtracted from the
result of USE(VAL(i,A)) and the result is taken as
an absolute (i.e, positive) values.
Max is the maximum difference between two values in the
USE vector (usually the fourth USE vector value
minus the seventh USE vector value).
The USE vector is a series of seven numbers with or without signs. In
computing the distance statistic, the values from the USE vector replace
the corresponding factor code values. Thus, code 3 (pni) is replaced by
the first number in the USE vector, code 4 (much toward) is replaced by
the second number in the USE vector, and so forth.
The system's standard USE vector is:
This vector gives equal positive weight (1) to any factor coded
"away" and equal negative weight (-l) to any factor coded "toward."
Factors coded "present, no influence" are placed in between at zero.
If you want to insert your own USE vector in compare, say use
followed by seven numbers, with or without signs. The numbers are
separated by one or more blanks, as follows:
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In contrast to the standard vector, the above one would weight those
factors having "much" influence as twice as important as those with
"some" influence, which in turn are given twice the weight of those
with "little" influence. Again factors coded "away" are counted on
the positive side and those coded "toward" on the negative side.
2.8 define
The CASCON system contains definitions (see 1.3) of most of its
standard words. You can request a definition any time you are at com-
mand level. If you type define xxxx, where xxxx is not a word for which
the system contains a definition, the system will respond with
xxxx not defined. (or a comparable comment)
Otherwise it would say something like:
Type command define threshold;
A convenient point of demarcation
in time to separate the phases.
2.9 command
This word followed by any one of CASCON's command words prints
out a brief description of that command, e.g.
command compare;
Compare compares user case (or any case
in the data base) to some or all of the
cases in the data base (see manual for
details)
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2.10 exit
The user terminates a CASCON session by typing exit at command
Type command. exit;
The system then asks if he wishes to save the work he has done
previously, including: any new cases he has entered or modified,
lists of cases or factors he has created and named, and the like:
For his work to be retained by CASCON until his next session at the
console (which is the reason he has his own CASCON user's id), he
says yes to "save status?" and his work is retained.
If he says no, all his work at that (and past) sessions is deleted -
new cases he has made or modified, lists of cases or factors, groups
he has named, and the like. To repeat, if he says yes his user status
is saved and the next time he logs in to CASCON it will look like:
cascon
Cascon
Enter your user id 1pb
Do you want to continue your previous
session? yes
Type command.
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CASCON II
DESCRIPTORS OF 52 DATA BASE CASES
NAME ADEN (SOUTH YEMEN)
STATUS QUO SIDE UNITED KINGDOM
NON STATUS QUO SIDE RIVAL NATIONALIST GROUPS
(SHORT CODE) (TYPE)
1963-67 ADY COLONIAL
PHASE 1 DATES 1/63-12/10/63
PHASE 2 DATES 12/10/63-11/30/67
PHASE S DATES 11/30/67
NAME ALGERIA
STATUS QUO SIDE FRANCE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE FLN-ALN
PHASE 1 DATES 1947-1954
PHASE 2 DATES EARLY 1954-10/31/54
PHASE 3 DATES 11/1/54-3/18/62
PHASE 4 DATES 3/19/62-7/3/62
PHASE S DATES 7/4/62
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
ALGERIA-MOROCCO
ALGERIA
MOROCCO
- 7/62
7/62-10/8/63
10/8/63-11/2/63
11/2/63-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE S DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
ANGOLA
PORTUGAL
AFRICAN REBEL GROUPS
- EARLY 1950'S
EARLY 1950'S-2/3/61
2/3/61-FALL/61
FALL/61-
ARAB-ISRAELI WAR
ISRAEL
UAR
11/6/56-6/5/67
6/5/67-6/10/67
6/10/67-
BAHRAIN
UNITED KINGDOM(BAHRAIN)
IRAN
1/68-5/11/70
5/11/70
BAY OF PIGS
CUBA
USA
1/1/59-3/60
3/60-4/15/61
4/15/61-4/19/61
4/19/61-
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NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
(SHORT CODE) (TYPE)
BOLIVIA 1967 BOL INTERNAL
BOLIVIA
CUBAN-LED INSURGENTS
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
4/52-1/66
1/66-3/23/67
3/23/67-10/67
10/67-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
CONGO (KATANGA)
CONGO REPUBLIC
KATANGA PROVINCE
PHASE 1 DATES
6/30/60-7/20/60
PHASE 2 DATES
7/20/60-9/13/61
PHASE 3 DATES
9/13/61-1/15/63
PHASE 4 DATES
1/15/63-1/23/63
PHASE S DATES
1/23/63
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
CUBA
BATISTA GOVERNMENT
CASTRO OPPOSITION
PHASE
1 DATES
1946-3/10/52
PHASE
2 DATES
3/10/52-12/2/56
PHASE
3 DATES
12/2/56-1/1/59
PHASE
S DATES
1/59
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
CYPRUS (COMMUNAL)
TURKISH CYPRIOTS
GREEK CYPRIOTS
1963-
PHASE
1 DATES
1960-11/30/63
PHASE
2 DATES
11/30/63-12/21/63
PHASE
31DATES
12/21/63-10/64
PHASE
41DATES
10/64-11/15/67
PHASE
32DATES
11/15/67-11/16/67
PHASE
42DATES
11/16/67-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
CYPRUS (ENOSIS)
UNITED KINGDOM
CYPRUS
1954-59
CYE
PHASE
1
DATES
- 7/52
PHASE
2
DATES
7/52-4/1/55
PHASE
3
DATES
4/1/55-2/11/59
PHASE
4
DATES
2/11/59-
-61-
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NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MILITARY JUNTA
BOSCH & PRD
1965
(SHORT CODE) (TYPE)
DOM INTERNAL
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
1962-9/63
9/25/63-4/24/65
4/24/65-8/31/65
8/31/65 -
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
HAITI
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
1963
DRH
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
4/11/63-4/28/63
4/28/63-9/25/63
9/25/63-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
ECUADOR-USA
USA
ECUADOR
1963-
EUS
PHASE 1 DATES
1963-3/12/71
PHASE 2 DATES
3/12/71-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS
HONDURAS
EL SALVADOR
1969-
ESH
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
4/69-6/24/69
6/24/69-7/15/69
7/15/69-7/22/69
7/22/69-
GHANA-UPPER VOLTA 1964-66 GUV
UPPER VOLTA
GHANA
SPRING 1963-7/64
7/64-2/66
2/66-
GREEK INSURGENCY
GOVERNMENT
GREEK COMMUNIST PARTY
- 3/10/44
3/10/44-2/46
2/46-10/49
10/49-
-62-
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(SHORT CODE) (TYPE)
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE I DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
GUATEMALA
GUATEMALA
CASTILLO ARMAS EXILES
1951-LATE 1953
LATE 1953-6/54
6/18/54-7/1/54
7/1/54-
GUINEA-IVORY COAST
IVORY COAST
GUINEA
2/24/66-3/10/66
3/10/66-9/25/67
9/25/67-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
GUINEA-PORTUGUESE GUINEA 1970
GUINEA
PORTUGUESE GUINEA
1963-11/16/70
11/16/70-11/22/70
11/22/70-11/28/70
11/28/70-
GUYANA-VENEZUELA
GUYANA
VENEZUELA
1962-2/19/70
2/19/70-6/20/70
6/20/70-
INDIA-CHINA BORDER
INDIA
CHINA
- 6/29/54
6/29/54-9/8/62
9/8/62-11/21/62
11/21/62-
INDIA-PAKISTAN
INDIA
PAKISTAN
1949-8/5/65
8/5/65-9/22/65
9/23/65-1/10/66
-63-
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(TYPE)
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
INDONESIAN-MALAYSIAN
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
CONFRONTATION
1963-65
IMC
INTERSTATE
PHASE
1
DATES
- 1/63
PHASE
2
DATES
1/63-4/12/63
PHASE
3
DATES
4/12/63- 10/1/65
PHASE
S
DATES
10/1/65
NAME
INDONESIAN WAR OF INDEPENDENCE 1945-49 IWI COLONIAL
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
NETHERLANDS
INDONESIAN NATIONALISTS
PHASE
1 DATES
- 8/17/45
PHASE
2 DATES
8/17/45-LATE 10/45
PHASE
31DATES
LATE 10/45-10/14/46
PHASE
41DATES
10/14/46-7/21/47
PHASE
32DATES
7/21/47-1/19/48
PHASE
42DATES
1/19/48-12/19/48
PHASE
33DATES
12/19/48-8/1/49
PHASE
5 DATES
8/1/49-12/27/49
PHASE
S DATES
12/27/49
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
IRAQ (KURDS)
IRAQ
KURDS
1958-63
IRK
INTERNAL
PHASE
1 DATES
- 7/58
PHASE
2 DATES
7/58-8/61
PHASE
31DATES
8/61-2/10/63
PHASE
41DATES
2/10/63-6/10/63
PHASE
32DATES
6/10/63-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
KASHMIR
INDIA
PAKISTAN
1947-49
KAS
INTERSTATE
PHASE
1
DATES
- 10/24/47
PHASE
2
DATES
10/24/47-10/27/47
PHASE
3
DATES
10/27/47-1/1/49
PHASE
4
DATES
1/1/49-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
KUWAIT-IRAQ
KUWAIT
IRAQ
1961-63
KUI
INTERSTATE
PHASE
1
DATES
6/19/61-6/26/61
PHASE
2
DATES
6/26/61-1963
PHASE
5
DATES
1963-
-64-
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(SHORT CODE) (TYPE)
1959-62
LAO INTERNAL
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
LAOS
LAOTIAN NEUTRALISTS
RIGHT & LEFT FACTIONS
PHASE
1
DATES
1957-1/59
PHASE
2
DATES
1/59-5/24/59
PHASE
3
DATES
5/24/59-6/24/62
PHASE
4
DATES
6/24/62-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
LEBANON
GOVERNMENT
UNITED NATIONAL
FRONT
1957-58
LEB
INTERNAL
PHASE
1
DATES
1943-6/57
PHASE
2
DATES
6/57-5/8/58
PHASE
3
DATES
5/8/58-10/14/58
PHASE
4
DATES
10/14/58-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
MALAYAN EMERGENCY
GOVERNMENT
MALAYAN COMMUNIST PARTY
1948-60
MAE
INTERNAL
PHASE
1
DATES
- 3/48
PHASE
2
DATES
3/48-6/48
PHASE
3
DATES
6/48-7/31/60
PHASE
4
DATES
7/31/60-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
MOROCCO-MAURITANIA
MAURITANIA
MOROCCO
1957-70
MOM
INTERSTATE
PHASE
1
DATES
1957-61
PHASE
2
DATES
1961-63
PHASE
5
DATES
1963-2/27/70
PHASE
S
DATES
2/27/70
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO
MOROCCO-SPAIN
SPAIN
MOROCCO
1956-
MOS
INTERSTATE
PHASE
1
DATES
1956-8/19/57
PHASE
2
DATES
8/19/57-11/57
PHASE
3
DATES
11/57-3/58
PHASE
4
DATES
3/58-
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
MUSCAT & OMAN 1957- MUS INTERNAL
SULTANATE OF OMAN(MUSCAT & OMAN)
IMAMATE OF OMAN
1955-MID 7/57
MID 7/57-7/24/57
7/24/57-8/23/57
8/23/57-
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NAME
STATUS-QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA
COSTA RICA
NICARAGUA
1948-1954
1954-1/11/55
1/11/55-1/20/55
1/20/55-1/9/56
1/9/56-
(SHORT CODE) (TYPE)
1955-56 NCR INTERSTATE
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
PHASE S DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
NICARAGUA-HONDURAS
HONDURAS
NICARAGUA
1912-4/19/57
4/19/57-5/3/57
5/3/57-5/7/57
5/7/57-1960
1960
NIGERIA
NIGERIA
EASTERN REGION OF NIGERIA
1/66-5/30/67 (BIAFRA)
5/30/67-7/6/67
7/6/67-1/12/70
1/12/70-1/15/70
1/15/70-
PALESTINE
ARAB STATES
PALESTINIAN JEWS (ISRAEL)
1917-11/29/47
11/29/47-5/15/48
5/15/48-1/49
1/49-
PANAMA
USA
PANAMA
- 1/9/64
1/9/64-4/3/64
4/3/64-
1957-60 NIH INTERSTATE
1967-70 NIB INTERNAL
1947-49 PAL COLONIAL
1964 PAN INTERSTATE
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NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 31DATES
PHASE 41DATES
PHASE 32DATES
PHASE 42DATES
PHILIPPINES (HUKS) 1946-54 PHH INTERNAL
GOVERNMENT
HUK INSURGENTS
- 4/42
4/42-5/46
5/46-5/54
5/54-
QUEMOY-MATSU 1954-58 OUM INTERSTATE
NATIONALIST CHINA
PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA
- 9/4/54
9/4/54-10/58
10/58-
SINAI
EGYPT
ISRAEL
- 10/29/56
10/29/56-11/7/56
11/7/56 -
SOMALIA-ETHIOPIA-KENYA 1960-64 SEK INTERSTATE
ETHIOPIA-KENYA
SOMALIA
- 7/60
7/60-1/64
1/64-4/64
4/64-
SOUTH TYROL 1957-69 STY INTERSTATE
ITALY
AUSTRIA
1957-1/30/61
1/30/61-11/30/69
11/30/69-
SOVIET-IRAN 1945-46 SOI INTERSTATE
IRAN
SOVIET-UNION
- 8/41
8/41-8/45
8/26/45-12/15/45
12/15/45-12/10/46
12/10/46-12/15/46
12/15/46-10/22/47
-67-
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NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
PHASE S DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 5 DATES
PHASE S DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE 4 DATES
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
PHASE 1 DATES
PHASE 2 DATES
PHASE 3 DATES
PHASE S DATES
SUEZ
EGYPT
UK - FRANCE
MID-1950'S-7/56
7/56-10/31/56
10/31/56-11/7/56
11/7/56-12/23/56
12/23/56
SYRIA-TURKEY
SYRIA
TURKEY(USA)
10/56-8/57
8/57-11/57
TRIESTE
ITALY
YUGOSLAVIA
6/45-8/29/53
8/29/53-10/54
10/5/54-10/25/54
10/25/54-10/26/54
VENEZUELA
GOVERNMENT
TERRORIST GROUPS
1958-9/59
9/59-10/60
10/60-12/63
12/63-
WEST IRIAN
NETHERLANDS
INDONESIA
8/17/45-11/17/57
11/18/57-9/20/61
9/20/61-8/17/62
8/17/62
NAME
STATUS QUO SIDE
NON STATUS QUO SIDE
YEMEN
ROYALISTS
REPUBLICANS
PHASE
1
DATES
- 10/62
PHASE
2
DATES
10/62-11/62
PHASE
31
DATES
11/62-8/65
PHASE
41
DATES
8/65-12/66
PHASE
32
DATES
12/66-3/69
PHASE
42
DATES
3/69-
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CASCON II
CONFLICT-MINIMIZING POLICY MEASURES
1. Measures Promoting Arms Control
A. Remove arms left from previous conflicts
B. Promote international and great power agreements restricting
arms transfers and military training and advice to the sides
C. Create demilitarized zone, or neutrally patrolled buffer zone
D. Restrict size of forces introduced into area of hostilities to
those needed for defense against attack
E. Prevent a geographical spread of the conflict by restricting
the sides' capacity to launch military operations far from their
borders
F. Restrict the introduction of sophisticated weapons in the area
G. Promote dependence on outside sources for military needs (if
conflict-minimizing)
H. Ship arms to the non-aggressive side if an invasion attempt is made,
or to maintain military balance
1. Disarm potentially hostile civilians in the disputed
area
II. Measures Discouraging Aggression
A. Introduce a neutral third party force in the area of
conflict.
1. To prevent outside intervention
2. To prevent overt aggression by one side
3. To oversee activity in the area
4. To separate adversary forces
5. To keep the conflict non-military
6. To serve as a peacekeeping force in the area
7. To prevent the entrance of troops from neighboring
countries
8. To reduce the threat of force as a means for coercion
9. To serve as a countervailing force
10. To assist forces aiding the non-aggressive side
B. Promote conflict-deterring movements of forces in nearby
areas
C. Encourage non-involvement pacts by outside powers and/or
allies of the sides
1. Discourage intervention (if conflict-minimizing)
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2. Encourage the concept of "Spheres of Abstention"
3. Create legal and propaganda restraints on great power
involvement
4. Promote neutrality
D. Increase the threat of involvement by a side's allies
(but only if the result is conflict-minimizing)
E. Apply political and economic pressures
1. Increase the economic cost of hostilities
2. Restrict military and technological aid to the
aggressive side and increase it to the non-aggressive
side
3. Restrict trade with the aggressive side and increase it
to the non-aggressive side
4. Support the concept of deterrence
5. Threaten to take further reprisals unless conflict-
limiting policies are adopted by the aggressive side
6. Make peaceful preference well known to the sides
F. Promote action by international and regional
organizations to forestall or condemn aggression
1. Support the victim of aggression
2. Threaten sanctions against the aggressor
3. Insulate the area of conflict
G. Guarantee existing borders
1. Through legal mechanisms
2. Through joint border patrol
3. Through neutral third party border patrols
4. Through agreements among states to abandon border claims
5. Through international agreements not to settle border
conflicts by force
H. Encourage a side's desire to keep its role covert (if
this is conflict-minimizing)
I. Introduce the threat of a wider war (but only if there is
a high probability of conflict-minimization)
III. Measures Ensuring Equitable Treatment of the Sides
A. Settle claims according to the wishes of the population
1. Emphasize the right of self-determination
2. Utilize neutrally or jointly supervised plebiscites
3. Withold recognition from unconstitutional governments
such as insurgent governments (if conflict-minimizing)
4. Encourage formation of governments that will reflect
popular opinion
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B. Secure humane treatment of prisoners
1. Promote third party supervision
2. Promote periodic third party inspection
C. Promote accommodation of interests
1. Protect minority rights
2. Provide international guarantees for legitimate interests
of both sides
3. Attempt to develop a formula that will meet the demands
of both sides or will serve as a compromise
4. Promote joint action by international and regional
organizations and great powers for interest accommodation
5. Provide treaty guarantees of minority or nomad rights
IV. Measures Fostering Diplomatic Settlement
A. Employ fultilateral time-stretching devices
1. Promote ceasefire and "standstill" agreements
2. Arrange for diplomatic delays
B. Build on existing goodwill between sides by striving for
rapid settlement
C. Promote peaceful multilateral procedures including
conciliation, good offices, arbitration, or adjudication
1. Pressure sides to agree to procedures for reaching
settlement
2. Offer inducements for sides to negotiate
3. Threaten sanctions against a side unwilling to accept
negotiated solutions
4. Suggest reciprocal actions that might induce settlement
D. Pressure sides to maintain membership in international
and regional organizations
E. Encourage raising the matter at international or regional
organizations; encourage prompt action
F. Promote multilateral guarantees of any agreements reached,
and their implementation
G. Pressure sides to stand by agreements
H. Emphasize the benefits of accommodation over the weakness
associated with it
I. Make negotiation contingent on moderation or cessation of
violence, e.g.,ceasefire (if conflict-minimizing)
J. Efforts to delineate border definitively
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V. Measures to Establish Facts or Foster a Realistic Power Appraisal
A. Encourage sides to consider past experience
B. Encourage sides to distinguish between minor irritations
and real security threats
C. Develop better understanding of the issues at stake
D. Promote third party fact-finding or observation/inspection
missions
E. Caution or pressure sides to avoid precipitate action
F. Encourage sides to secure a better reading on domestic and
foreign public opinion
G. Discourage either side's hope for decisive victory,(if
conflict-minimizing)
H. Obtain an accurate estimate of capabilities
1. Obtain accurate intelligence on the military b??.ance,
on objectives, and on events taking place in the area
2. Utilize reliable third-party sources of information
I. Emphasize futility of both sides continuing to fight
1. Demonstrate the costs of continuing the conflict or
starting a new one
2. Help sides to calculate the cost-effectiveness
of conflict
3. Make clear the other side's intention to intervene
under specified conditions
4. Emphasize the threat of large-scale violence (if
conflict-minimizing)
5. Emphasize the dangers of escalation
J. Make certain that both sides are aware of all the implications
of their actions
K. Increase the sides' knowledge of the nature and structure
of conflicts
L. Encourage the sides to accept the inevitability of change
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VI. Measures Fostering Communication and Understanding between the Sides
A. Encourage the sides to clarify their position and that of
involved powers with regard to the conflict
1. Encourage them to explain the nature and limits of
their territorial objectives
2. Encourage them to be explicit about their promises
(and threats, if conflict-minimizing)
B. Create secure and rapid channels for
communication, such as a "hot line"
C. Emphasize areas of common interest between the two sides
1. Develop joint enterprises (e.g. joint companies) with
shared benefits
2. Strengthen economic ties
D. Encourage toleration of differences
E. Encourage sides to be less sensitive to past grievances
F. Encourage the sides to attempt to rectify the consequences
of past errors
VII. Measures Affecting Internal Stability and Security
A. Strengthen internal security, domestic controls, and
military and police forces in non-aggressive side
while weakening them in the aggressive side
B. Promote internal disunity, i.e. ideological, historic,
ethnic, religious, or linguistic divisions, in the
aggressive side while helping to find unifying goals
and increasing political and social cohesion in the non-
aggressive side
C. Strengthen the militarily weak side to induce a stalemate
or to increase the credibility of a counter-move (if
conflict-minimizing)
D. Develop effective internal opposition to the aggressive
side, and work to dissolve coalitions opposing the govern-
ment of the non-aggressive side
E. Encourage accommodation to legitimate popular demands, to
accept internal reforms, and to adopt policies that will
increase genuine stability
F. Foster increased communication between military and
political leaders to avoid credibility gap.
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G. Assist a side to undertake constructive nation-building
tasks
1. Promote multilateral aid for internal political and economic
development and reconstruction
2. Promote planning and investment to stimulate internal
development
3. Create alternative outlets for energies left unemployed
H. Promote social equality in the sides by training, educating,
and creating opportunities in the area's economic, social
and political life
I. Encourage placing in positions of leadership those intent
on peaceful resolution of conflict
J. Promote civilian control of the military in the sides (if
conflict-minimizing)
VIII. Measures Reducing the Stakes in the Conflict
A. Reduce strategic importance of the disputed area
B. Create or perpetuate distractions elsewhere if conflict-
minimizing
C. Reduce the need for land military bases and develop
technological substitutes such as long-range sea-and air-lift
D. Isolate the conflict issue from other international, regional,
and domestic disagreements (where conflict-minimizing)
E. Develop substitutes for raw materials (e.g. oil)
F. Ensure access by both sides to vital raw materials
IX. Measures Utilizing World Opinion
A. Publicize strength of world opinion behind multilateral
action
B. Build opposition to a side by exposing it as the aggressor
and build support for the victim of aggression
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C. Utilize unanimity on an issue in an international or regional
organization to generate quick action
D. Clarify the justifications for multilateral intervention
in order to gain widespread acceptance
E. Utilize news media to enhance conflict-minimizing trends
Measures Influencing the Relationship of Interest Groups Within Each Side
A. Encourage actions that will strengthen moderate groups
1. Weaken extremist groups and leadership while strengthening
moderates
2. Encourage internal divisions in extremist groups while
unifying moderates
3. Provide political and economic alternatives to extremism
and grant popular reforms
4. Grant financial support and sources of recruitment to
moderate groups while denying them to extremist groups
B. Minimize inter-group conflicts
1. Deport dissident aliens
2. Restrict immigration to maintain unity
3. Physically separate hostile groups
4. Accommodate minority groups' desire to merge with other
countries (if conflict-minimizing)
5. Disperse refugee groups, resettle them, or refuse to
harbor them (if conflict-minimizing)
6. Provide economic incentives to promote emigration
elsewhere
7. Promote multilateral aid to deal with internal social
problems
8. Foster allegiance to country of residence
C. Support looser forms of political association
1. Promote the concept of a political federation
2. Encourage partitions (if conflict-minimizing)
D. Restrict outside aid to internal groups (if conflict-minimizing)
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PART 5
THE RECONCILIATION OF DISAGREED CODINGS OF FACTORS
In order to provide the user with clear and accurate codings
for all of the cases in the CASCON data base, it was necessary to develop
a number of procedures to reconcile the various discrepancies which
appeared among our experts' codings. Since the effect and influence of
factors in a conflict are not always clear-cut and perceptions of them
are also variable, experts often disagreed to some extent. The methods
by which we reconciled such disagreements are presented here for the
information of the CASCON II user.
1. Whenever the various expert codings for a given factor all fell
within the "not a factor" sector and/or one or the other of the "effect"
sectors, the reconciled coding for that factor was obtained by averaging
the responses (with exceptions as noted below in Section 2).
Results were obtained throughout the range of the scale in Figure 3.
displays the "effect" and "influence" coding of a reconciled factor in
graphic form. The numbers represent codings as in the codebooks and
tabulation forms; 1.0, 2.0 represent the categories 1,2, respectively
and are excluded from the ordinal scale. 3.0-9.0 represent a given "effect"
and "influence" ranging from "much away from violence" at the left end-
point, through "no influence" in the middle, to "much toward violence"
at the right end-point. These numbers, as well as the decimal gradations
between them, represent reconciled coding entries as described. In order
to facilitate keypunching and data storage within the CASCON II system,
each of these possible codings was also assigned a corresponding
"computer code" (shown above the line). It is in this form that the
reconciled coding for a factor was entered into the system (the coding,
however, prints it out as a digit: 1-9).
1.0 = 1
2.0 = 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N 0 P Q R
f-T
7.0 8.0 9.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
Figure 3.
2. Whenever the various codings involved "not present" codings combined
with codings in one different "effect" sector, the reconciliation process
had to be augmented by a set of "ground rules for reconciliation". These
rules specified that:
a. Coding divergences were reconciled toward a "middle ground"
coding among the coders whenever possible;
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b. A majority (or even plurality) agreement on coding was weighted
more heavily than deviant codings for the same factor;
c. Comments listed on forms by the coders were considered and
affected reconciliation throughout;
d. When one coder obviously diverged from others to a considerable
extent, his codings were less heavily weighted in general (for a measure of
such deviance, refer to "Confidence Factor" below in Section 4);
e. Codings for "earlier" cases (pre-1966) by currently-serving
government officials were less heavily weighted (the coding officer here
seemed less likely to have personal or direct knowledge of the case, due
to shifting assignments);
f. Personal idiosyncrasies of coders in checking one column rather
than another (e.g., "not present" rather than "no information")were noted
and considered. Idiosyncratic tendencies toward one "effect" sector
rather than another were also taken into account (for measures of these
factors, refer to "Codings" and "Relationships" below in Section 4).
If a consideration of these rules still did not suffice to provide
the reconciled coding for such an entry, the problem was resolved as follows:
if there were only two coders, one "not present" coding decreased the "influ-
ence" vector by one step (1.0) back toward a "no influence" coding (this
procedure and those that follow refer to the ordinal representation
assigned to the codings on the scale above).In the case of three coders,
one "not present" coding decreased the influence" vector by one-half
step (0.5) back toward a "no influence" coding (if the other two coders
agreed on "effect" but disagreed on "influence", they were first averaged
and this procedure was then applied); two "not present" codings decreased
the "influence" vector by one and one-half steps (1.5) back toward a "no
influence" coding, up to the point of "no influence" itself.
For the purposes of reconciliation, codings of "no information"
represented a "null set" and were discounted. Also, a number of "no
influence" codings equal to or greater than the number of "not present"
codings completely outweighed the "no influence" codings for that factor.
3. Whenever the various codings for a given factor fell within both
the "effect" sectors, ( toward violence and away from violence ), the
reconciled coding was obtained through a discussion session among the
CASCON staff. This session utilized whatever information could be brought
to bear, including the "ground rules for reconciliation".
4. In order to examine and evaluate the results of experts' codings,
we extracted and compiled a number of statistics based upon the tabulated
codings. For each case a table was prepared in the form shown illustratively
in Tables 1 and 2 following. These Tables represent imaginary cases,
with 3 and 2 experts coding,respectively, for one phase only.
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FACTOR
AWAY
(7)
FROM VIOLENCE
(8) (9)
NOT
(1)
A FACTOR
(2)
(3)
TOWARD VIOLENCE
(6) (5) (4)
_
much
some
itt
e
no
info
not
resent
no
influ
litt
le some
muc
1.
Prof. 'A'
5
4
5
0
59
12
15
19
24
2.
0-7-12
1
0
1
-
45
4
3
3
13
3.
Official 'B
2
2
1
0
79
13
8
12
26
4.
0-10-3
0
0
-
-
39
1
0
2
8
5.
Mister 'C'
1
10
0
18
59
7
6
22
14
6.
2-11-12
0
1
-
-
33
1
1
3
7
7.
ALL
0
0
-
-
28
1
0
1
6
FACTOR
AWAY
(7)
FROM VIOLENCE
(8) (9)
NOT A
(1)
FACTOR
(2)
(3)
TOWARD VIOLENCE
(6) (5) (4)
muc
some
little
no
info p
not no
resent influ
little
some
much
8. Prof. 'A'
7
1
0
0
107
1
2
13
12
9.
2
0
-
-
60
0
0
1
6
0. Official 'B
10
7
0
5
69
4
19
14
1A:B
3B:A
2A:B
10B:A
6A:B
4B:A
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In reference to these Tables, the statistics we compiled were:
a. Codings: Rows 1, 3, 5, 8, and 10 on the Tables recorded the total number
of factors within a phase entered by a coder within each category (1-9).
Listed in rows 2,4, and 9, the second statistic represented the conjunction
of entries of the coder above and the coder below (i.e. the number of
factors which they coded similarly within the respective categories for
that phase). Row 6, below the last coder on Table 1, represented the
conjunction of the first coder and the last. Further conjunction
statistics, arising from cases with more than three coders, were also
compiled and listed for such cases. Following all of these statistics, and
whenever there were more than two coders, row 7 designated "ALL" represented
the conjunction of the entire group of coders for that phase. When there
were two coders, row 9 alone performed the equivalent function. It was
hoped that these statistics would serve to help expose a coder who was
generally deviant or a coder with some particular idiosyncrasy (thus
facilitating application of rules d and f.)
b. Confidence Factor: Under each coder's name, for each phase of a given
conflict with three or more coders, there were listed three statistics
separated by dashes, as in rows 2, 4, and 6. These statistics recorded
the total number of factors for which the coder diverged from a majority
agreement on coding. Referring to these statistics as "(1)-(2)-(3)", they
recorded:
(1) A coder's divergence into an opposing "effect" sector,
e.g. a coding of "away from violence" rather than the
majority coding of "toward violence", or vice versa;
(2) A coder's divergence into the "not present" category and
away from a given "effect" which the majority is agreed upon;
(3) A coder's divergence into a given "effect" sector and away
from the majority "not present" coding.
For the purposes of (2) and (3), the "no influence" category was considered
to be a member of either "effect" sector.
Once these statistics were compiled for a coder for all phases of his
case, his "confidence factor" was calculated. This factor was applicable,
of course, only to cases with three or more coders. It was designed as an
approximate measure of the confidence which should be placed in a coder's
responses, derived from an analysis of his deviation from fellow coders.
Since all of the coders were expert, whenever two or more of them agreed
on a coding, we were expecially confident of its accuracy. If another coder
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disagreed with such a coding we had to consider this a deviation on his
part. If he deviated consistently, we reasoned that our confidence in his
expertise should be lowered. Either his knowledge was insufficient or
he had misinterpreted the code book for some reason. A low "confidence
factor" for a coder indicated that this was indeed the case. In any
event, the "confidence factor" proved a useful tool for weighting the
coders and coding reconciliation in general.
The "confidence factor" was derived for a coder by doubling statistic (1)
and adding to it statistics (2) and (3). The results of this were added
for all phases to obtain an "adjusted deviance" measure. A suitable
upper limit or "standard" for this score was determined by analysis to be
one-quarter of the total number of factors possible in a case, depending
on which phases were present. Thus, for cases with only Phase I present,
the standard was 36; likewise, with Phases I and II, II and III, or I, II,
and III present, the standards were 71, 85, or 121 respectively. The
ratio of the "adjusted deviance" of a coder to-the "standard" for his case
was converted to a decimal and subtracted from one to obtain his "confidence
factor", a decimal between 0 and 1. Using the data from Table 1, assuming
that it represents Phase I, the "confidence factors" were .47, .64, and .25
for coders A, B, and c respectively.
c. Relationships: In cases which only two experts coded, as in Table 2,
it was, for obvious reasons, impossible to develop a statistic comparable
to the "confidence factor." In lieu of this, we derived a measure
intended to point up more clearly the coders' idiosyncrasies in relation
to each other. Although the value of this index was only marginal, it was
felt that some such statistic might prove helpful to the reconciliation
process. The "relationship" statistics were listed in row 11 below
the other statistics.
a. The leftmost pair indicated the number of factors for which
one coder entered "away from violence" while the other coded
"toward violence", and vice versa;
b. The middle pair recorded the number of factors for which one
coder entered "away from violence" while the other coded
'"not present", and vice versa.
c. The rightmost pair showed the number of factors for which
one coder entered "toward violence" while the other coded
"not present", and vice versa.
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Using the coders' letters in each pair, they referred to spatial orientation
on the form, i.e., the left initial indicated the coder who entered the
sector to the left. This can be illustrated by an example: since for the
middle pair of statistics, "2A:BI10B:A " is listed, coder A responded
"away from violence" on 2 factors B recorded "not present"; likewise,
B responded "away" for 10 factors A coded "not present". (N. B. The
leftmost pair differs slightly from the others in that its "letter"
designations refer to opposite, rather than adjacent, sectors.)
All of these statistics helped to provide a sounder basis for the
judgments which were necessary in reconciling disagreed codings.
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 FIGURE 4Approved F$r M%r 90046/1? jNCCjp 57pM00096A000500010016-1
ALGERIA
1954-62
ALGERIA - MOROCCO
1962-63
ANGOLA
1961
BAY OF PIGS
1961
BOLIVIA
1967
CUBA
1952-59
CYPRUS (ENOSIS)
1954-59
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
1965
GREEK INSURGENCY
1944-49
GUATEMALA
1954
INDIA -CHINA BORDER
1954-62
INDONESIAN - MALAYSIAN
CONFRONTATION
1963-65
INDONESIAN WAR OF INDEPENDENCE
1945-49
IRAQ (KURDS)
1958-63
KASHMIR
1947-49
KUWAIT - IRAQ
1961-63
LEBANON
1957-58
MALAYAN EMERGENCY
1948-60
PHILIPPINES (HUKS)
1946-54
QUEMOY-MATSU
1954-58
SINAI
1956
SOMALIA -ETHIOPIA- KENYA
1960-64
SOVIET - IRAN
1945-46
SUEZ
1956
VENEZUELA
1960-63
WEST IRIAN
1957-62
YEMEN 1962-69
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ADEN ( SOUTH YEMEN) 1963-67
ARAB - ISRAELI WAR 1967
BAHRAIN 1970
CONGO (KATANGA) 1960-63
CYPRUS (COMMUNAL) 1963-
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - HAITI 1963
ECUADOR - USA 1963-
EL SALVADOR - HONDURAS 1969-
GHANA - UPPER VOLTA 1964-66
GUINEA - IVORY COAST 1966-67
GUINEA - PORTUGUESE GUINEA 1970
GUYANA - VENEZUELA 1970
INDIA - PAKISTAN 1965-66
LAOS 1959-62
MOROCCO - MAURITANIA 1957-70
MOROCCO - SPAIN 1956-
MUSCAT & OMAN 1957-
NICARAGUA - COSTA RICA 1955-56
NICARAGUA - HONDURAS 1957-60
NIGERIA (BIAFRA) 1967-70
PALESTINE 1947-49
PANAMA 1964
SOUTH TYROL 1957-69
SYRIA-TURKEY 1956-57
TRIESTE 1945-54
-83-
Approved For Release 2004/09/23 : CIA-RDP79M00096AO00500010016-1