//EUROPE: THE BERLIN AGREEMENT NOW IN SIGHT WILL ADD POWERFUL IMPETUS TO THE MOVEMENT TOWARD DETENTE IN EUROPE.//

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B01594A000100040047-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: January 8, 2005
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/09/21: CIA-RDP79BO1594A000100040047-4
//EUROPE: THE BERLIN AGREEMENT NOW IN SIGHT WILL ADD
POWERFUL IMPETUS TO THE MOVEMENT TOWARD.DETENTE IN EUROPE,//
//ALTHOUGH CERTAIN DETAILS REMAIN TO BE NEGOTIATED
BETWEEN EAST AND WEST GERMANY, PANKcOW IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
ABLE TO HOLD OUT AGAINST SOVIET INSISTENCE ON AN",AGREEMENT..'
THE ENTIRE BERLIN PACKAGE MUST THEN BE APPROVED'
BY THE BIG FOUR. THIS STEP WILL .OPEN THE WAY
FOR THE BONN COALITION OF SOCIAL DEMOCRATS AND FREE
DEMOCRATS TO PRESENT FOR RATIFICATION, WELL IN ADVANCE.
OF''THE 1973 ELECTIONS, THE TREATIES SIGNED LAST YEAR
WITH MOSCOW AND WARSAW.//
//AGREEMENT ON BERLIN WILL ALSO SATISFY THE CONDITION
THAT NATO HAS MADE FOR MOVING TOWARD A CONFERENCE ON
EUROPEAN. SECURITY, SOVIET SPOKESMEN ARE ALREADY
PUTTING NEW STEAM BEHIND THIS PROJECT. THE MEMBERS OF'
NATO, SOME OF WHOM WANT TO GIVE PREFERENCE TO THE ISUE
OF, FORCE REDUCTIONS RATHER THAN A CONFERENCE DEVOTED
LARGELY TO ATMOSPHERICS, WILL BE UNDER PRESSURE TO SPEED
THEIR PREPARATION OF A NEGOTIATING POSITION,//
//IN A LARGER CONTEXT WEST GERMANY WILL REGARD THE
AGREEMENT, ACHIEVED ON EVEN BETTER TERMS THAN BONN HAD --
ANTICIPATED AS A SIGNAL VICTORY FOR ITS OSTPOLITIK,
THIS POLICY AIMS AT PROMOTING, OVER THE LONG TERM,,A
BROAD EUROPEAN RECONCILIATION WHICH, BYE OVERCOMING
SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN FEARS OF GERMAN INTENTIONS, BRANDT
HOPES MIGHT ULTIMATELY MAKE POSSIBLE GERMAN REUNIFICATION
THE SUCCESS ACHIEVED TO DATE IS ALSOLIKELY TO MAKE BONN MORE CONFIDENT..
,IN DEALING WITH ITS WESTERN ALLIES, IN PARTICULAR THE FRENCH, WHO
HAVE NOT SHARED
ALL OF BONN'S AI
SUPPORT IS LESS NECESSARY NOW.//
//THE SOVIETS ALSO SEE THEMSELVES AS GAINERS. THEY
WILL PORTRAY THE BERLIN AGREEMENT, TOGETHER WITH THE"TREATIES .
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 Approved For Release 2007/09/21: CIA-RDP79BO1594A000100040047-4
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WHICH BONN WILL PROBABLY RATIFY IN DUE COURSE,. AS A
WATERSHED IN THEIR POSTWAR DIPLOMACY. THEY HAVE SOUGHT.,
WESTERN ACCEPTANCE OF THEIR PRIMACY IN EASTERN EUROPE AND
OF EAST GERMANY`S LEGITIMACY AS A SOVEREIGN STATE. .WITH
THE WAY CLEARED FOR FURTHER DETENTE INITIATIVES, THE USSR.
WILL DIRECT ITS DIPLOMACY PRIMARILY TOWARD REDUCING THE AMERICAN
PRESENCE AND ROLE IN EUROPE. AT- THE SAME TIME IT WILL
NOT OVERLOOK OPPORTUNITIES TO PLAY OFF ONE, WEST EUROPEAN
NATION AGAINST ANOTHER, AND TO DELAY CONSOLIDATION OF THE,
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES.//
i,' //EAST ' GERMANY, IN , CONTRAST, MUST TAKE AND UNHAPPY.
VIEW OF THE BERLIN AGREEMENT AND THE. PROSPECTS WHICH YT'
OPENS. THE AGREEMENT ITSELF VOIDS PANKOW'S CLAIM-'tO,
FULL CONTROL OVER-ITS OWN TERRITORY., AND A .PERIOD OF
DETENTE THREATENS TO WEAKEN EAST GERMANY'S DEFENSES
AGAINST BONN'S EFFORTS TO NORMALIZE RELATIONS BETWEEN.
THE "TWO STATES OF THE GERMAN NATION.". EAST GERMANY'
WILL SEEK TO BLOCK ANY BROAD INTER-GERMAN ACCORD BY'
SETTING DIFFICULT PRECONDITIONS, SUCH AS FULL
DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION AND ADMISSION TO THE UN, BUT
ITS CAMPAIGN TO LIMIT CONTACTS WITH WEST. GERMANY WILL.
STAND IN SOME CONTRAST TO THE POLICY OF OTHER EAST
EUROPEAN STATES AND WILL TEND TO ISOLATE IT FROMTHESE AL4'IES.//
//MOST OTHER EAST EUROPEAN STATES WILL WELCOME THE',
BERLIN: AGREEMENT. THESE STATES WILL SEE IT
ENHANCING THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY WITHIN UNQUESTIONED
BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS ALLOWING GREATER ACCESS TO'
THE WESTERN TECHNOLOGY AND FINANCING THEY HOPE TO USE:
TO EASE DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PRESSURES.
OTHERS, PARTICULARLY ROMANIA, WILL SEE IT'AS ABETTING?THE
PROCESS BY'WHICH THEY HOPE TO LOOSEN SOVIET CONTROL.
(SECRET/NO FOREIGN DISSEM/NO DISSEM ABROAD/BACKGROUND
Approved For Release 2007/09/21: CIA-RDP79B01594A000100040047-4