CHINA: REAL TRENDS IN TRADE WITH NON-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES SINCE 1970

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 78
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 2, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

National
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Assessment
Center
China: Real Trends in Trade
with Non-Communist Countries
Since 1970
A Research Paper
ER 77-10477
October 1977
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CO. 1111121 1111171111170-00 MOUGUUMU
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Note: As a result of a reorganization, effective 11 October 1977, intelligence
publications formerly issued by the Directorate of Intelligence are now being
issued by the National Foreign Assessment Center.
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CONTENTS
Page
1. Historical Trends in the Dollar Value of Trade ............................... 1
II. Aggregate Price Trends ........................................................................ 2
A. Export Prices .................................................................................... 2
B. Import Prices ........................................................ . .......... . ............... 5
C, Factors Affecting Price Trends ...................................................... 5
D. China's International Position ........................................................ 7
E. Terms of Trade .............................................................................. 8
III. Aggregate Quantity Trends .................................................................. 9
A. Export Trends in Current and Constant Dollars ........................ 10
B. Import Trends in Current and Constant Dollars ......................... 14
C. Recent Trends ......... . ........................................................................ 16
D. Factors Affecting Real Trends in Trade ...................................... 19
TABLES
Page
Table 1. Aggregate Dollar Price and Terms of Trade Indexes for Trade
with Non-Communist Countries ................................................................ 3
Table 2. Comparative Price Trends ........................................................... 7
Table 3. Conversion of PRC Export and Import Price Indexes from US
Dollar to Ren-Min-Bi Indexes .................................................................. 8
Table 4. Trade with Non-Communist Countries, in Current and Con-
stant Dollars ................................................................................................ 10
Table 5. Exports to Non-Communist Countries in Current Dollars,
f.o.b .............................................................................................................. 12
Table 6. Exports to Non-Communist Countries in 1970 Dollars, f.o.b.. 13
Table 7. Imports from Non-Communist Countries in Current Dollars,
f.o.b .............................................................................................................. 16
Table 8. Imports from Non-Communist Countries in 1970 Dollars,
f.o.b .............................................................................................................. 17
ILLUSTRATIONS
Page
Figure 1. Trade with Non-Communist Countries, 1950-75 .................... iv
Figure 2. Export Prices in US Dollars ........................................................ 4
Figure 3. Import Prices in US Dollars ....................................................... 6
Figure 4. Trade with Non-Communist Countries, 1970-75 ..................... 11
Figure 5. Exports to Non-Communist Countries ....................................... 15
Figure 6. Imports from Non-Communist Countries .................................. 18
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APPENDIXES
Page
Appendix A. Methodology ........................................................................... 23
Table A-i. Concordance of SITC Classification with Economic Classifi-
cations of Traded Goods ........................................................................... 26
Table A-2. Procedure for Estimating Aggregate Price Index for PRC
Exports, Including Crude Oil ................................................................... 28
Table A-3. Sugar Imports ............................................................................ 29
Table A-4. Oilseed Imports ......................................................................... 29
Appendix B. Exports ..................................................................................... 33
Table B-i. Aggregate Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for
PRC Exports, Excluding Crude Oil ........................................................ 33
Table B-2. Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC
Exports, Excluding Crude Oil, at the Two-Digit Level of the Standard
International Trade Classification ............................................................ 34
Table B-3. A Sample of the Commodities Included in the Export Price
Index ............................................................................................................ 38
Appendix C. Imports .................................................................................... 39
Table C-l. Aggregate Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for
PRC Imports, Excluding Sugar and Oilseeds ......................................... 39
Table C-2. Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC
Imports, Excluding Sugar and Oilseeds, at the Two-Digit Level of
the Standard International Trade Classification .................................... 42
Table C-3. A Sample of the Commodities Included in the Import Price
Index ............................................................................................................ 43
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PREFACE
To determine real trends in China's foreign trade since 1970, the effects
of world inflation and of the devaluation of the US dollar must be factored out
of current value data. This research aid presents estimates of China's trade
with the non-Communist countries in current and constant US dollars for the
years 1970-75.
An upward bias also exists in the current value data for China's trade with
Communist countries. The principal cause of this bias was introduced when
barter prices were revised to world market levels, after years of adherence to
"historical" prices. The devaluation of the dollar vis-a-vis the ruble and
East European currencies has also introduced inflation into the current
dollar data. Deflation of China's trade with the Communist countries is a
separate study, however, requiring different methods and more information
than is currently available.
Section I provides a brief overview of historical trends in the current
dollar value of China's trade with non-Communist countries. Section II
describes and analyzes aggregate price trends for PRC exports and imports.
Section III deflates trade into constant US dollars and analyzes the aggregate
quantity-or real-trends. Derivation of the price indexes for China's exports
and imports is explained in the Appendixes.
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Figure 1
Trade with Non=Communist ounstries
Million Current US
Plan Leap and Recovery Regular Planning
Forward I S I Revolution I
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China: Real Trends in Trade
With Non-Communist Countries Since 1970
Central Intelligence Agency
National Foreign Assessment Center
October 1977
1. Historical Trends in the Dollar Value of Trade
Since the founding of the People's Republic, China's trade with the non-
Communist countries has advanced in fits and starts-the result of a complex
interaction of foreign and domestic economic and political factors (see figure
1). Until recently, exports and imports were basically in balance.
Between 1950 and 1959 China's total trade-Communist and non-
Communist-more than tripled, outstripping the growth of the domestic
economy. Because of Mao's "lean to one side" foreign policy and the Korean
war trade restrictions imposed by the Western nations, most of the growth in
trade was with the Soviet Bloc-non-Communist countries accounted for only
one-third of the total.
Trade slumped in the 1960s; not until 1970 did the total again reach the
peak level of 1959. Nevertheless, the non-Communist portion increased
sharply. The Sino-Soviet rift-together with three disastrous harvests following
the Great Leap Forward-encouraged China to diversify trade. By 1966,
China had shifted three-quarters of its trade to the West. During the Cultural
Revolution, however, China's attentions turned inward, and trade stagnated.
The resumption of regular planning during the Fourth Five-Year Plan
brought a new wave of trade. From 1971 to 1975, the dollar value of China's
trade tripled; and the non-Communist share of China's trade rose to nearly 85
percent-by far the largest share of any Communist country's trade. At the
same time, flexible exchange rates and unstable world prices created a new
element of uncertainty for China's central planners. No longer could the
Chinese plan for balanced trade simply by adjusting the targeted quantities of
exports or imports within a framework of known world prices. After 1971,
total receipts and expenditures could be determined with certainty only after
contracts were in hand. In 1974, China registered its first major trade deficit
with the West.
Through the 1950s and 1960s, dollar values probably provided a fairly
accurate measure of the real growth in China's trade with the West. World
inflation amounted to only 2 or 3 percent per year, and foreign currencies
were fixed against the dollar with only occasional changes. Since the
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Smithsonian Agreement in December 1971 and the OPEC oil embargo in
October 1973, the dollar has declined in value, and world prices have jumped
sharply. As a result, dollar values have distorted the real trends in China's
trade. To understand recent developments in China's trade, it has become
necessary, therefore, to reexamine the period since 1970, sorting out both price
and quantity trends.
11. Aggregate Price Trends
Table 1 presents aggregate price indexes for China's exports and imports
in terms of US dollars, using 1970 as the base for comparison. In general,
China's export prices varied little from 1970 to 1971, but reflect the full extent
of the devaluation of the dollar in 1972. Big increases occurred in 1973 and
1974, followed by a slight decline during the world recession in 1975. Import
prices fell in 1971 and remained below the 1970 level in 1972 despite the
dollar devaluation, but picked up in 1973 and skyrocketed in 1974, before
leveling off in 1975.
A. Export Prices
Exports from China's extractive sector exhibited greater price fluctuations
than exports from either the agricultural or manufacturing sectors (see
figure 2). This sector is the smallest and, therefore, the most affected by price
movements of a few commodities. The decline in 1971 and 1972 was due
largely to falling prices for antimony and tungsten ores; prices for fluorspar,
natural graphite, common salt, and many other crude minerals actually
increased. From 1973 on, this sector, of course, was dominated by the meteoric
rise in crude oil prices.
Export prices for products of the agricultural and manufacturing sectors
followed almost identical trends, except for 1973, when rice and soybean
prices jumped sharply. Overall, prices in these sectors declined about equally
in 1975, although the recession hit certain groups of commodities more than
others. Average prices, for example, for China's exports of natural textile fibers
(mostly silk, angora, and cashmere) fell by almost a third from 1974 levels,
while prices for textile fabrics (mostly cottons) fell by only 20 percent and
clothing prices dropped by less than 15 percent.
Export prices for consumer goods initially ran ahead of foodstuffs and
industrial supplies, but then fell behind in 1973. Crude oil buoyed up the
average for industrial supplies in 1974 and 1975; with oil excluded, however,
this sector fared no better than foodstuffs or consumer goods.
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Compared with other end-use categories, export prices for capital goods
diverged most from the general trend. Prices were virtually constant from
1970 to 1972 and only rose slowly thereafter. Some of these products
apparently were offered at "friendship prices" under aid agreements-exports
of railroad equipment to Tanzania, for instance. In part, however, the slow
increase in prices must reflect the difficulties these Chinese goods face in
competing with machinery and equipment produced in the West.
Aggregate Dollar Price and Terms of Trade Indexes
for Trade With Non-Communist Countries
Export Price Indexes'
All exports ................................................
100.0
102.0
110.8
152.0
209.4
205.3
Sectors of origin
Agriculture ............................................
100.0
101.4
111.7
161.3
199.8
185.8
Extraction ..............................................
100.0
85.8
88.6
113.2
371.2
453.3
Manufacturing ......................................
100.0
104.1
111.0
147.6
198.7
185.5
End use
Foodstuffs .............................................
100.0
103.0
115.3
161.7
206.5
193.8
Industrial supplies .................................
100.0
100.2
106.0
152.9
228.4
229.3
Capital goods ........................................
100.0
98.8
98.6
115.4
128.9
156.5
Consumer goods ...................................
100.0
105.9
116.9
144.6
191.4
186.9
Import Price Indexes'
All imports ...............................................
100.0
92.4
94.8
121.5
183.8
190.6
Sectors of origin
Agriculture ............................................
100.0
111.9
123.6
159.1
284.5
280.6
Extraction ..............................................
100.0
75.5
76.3
141.9
215.4
141.9
Manufacturing ......................................
100.0
89.1
86.6
107.1
158.8
181.5
End use
Foodstuffs .............................................
100.0
111.4
122.3
178.8
286.5
300.5
Industrial supplies .................................
100.0
88.8
87.5
107.2
168.4
174.0
Capital goods ........................................
100.0
95.2
98.4
134.6
165.5
201.8
Consumer goods ...................................
100.0
84.7
124.1
148.8
153.1
204.4
Terms of Trade Indexes
Commodity s .............................................
100.0
110.4
116.9
125.1
113.9
107.7
Income * ....................................................
100.0
126.2
157.9
207.6
178.1
186.0
Including price effects of crude oil exports.
Including price effects of sugar and oilseed imports.
Commodity terms of trade is the export price index divided by import price index.
* Income terms of trade is the commodity terms of trade index multiplied by the export quantity index.
The income terms of trade is a measure of the "capacity to import" based on exports. It is not a measure of
the total capacity to import, which depends not only on exports but also on capital inflows and other
invisible exchange receipts.
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Figure 2
Export Prices~ ,n US Dollars
Index: 1970=100
By Sector of Origin
By End Use
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B. Import Prices
China's overall import price index generally followed the trend for
manufactures, the major component (see figure 3). Imports of agricultural
commodities-wheat, corn, sugar, soybeans, and cotton-exerted an upward
influence in every year, while imports of commodities from the extractive
sector-primarily natural rubber-had only a minor effect on the overall
trend.
Import prices for capital goods did not begin to rise until 1973, a year
after the devaluation of the dollar, but then increased at a fairly steady pace.
The devaluation of the dollar probably was not reflected in immediate price
increases because of the long lead times between contracts and deliveries-
most of China's capital imports are not shelf items. Machinery and transport
equipment had a relatively small impact on the overall import price index,
however, until 1974 and 1975, when expenditures on these items climbed to 30
percent of the total import bill.
Prices for imports of industrial supplies-consisting chiefly of steel,
nonferrous metals, and petrochemicals-had the greatest bearing on China's
overall import price index. In general, steel prices fell in 1971 and 1972, but
surpassed the 1970 level by 1973 and nearly doubled by 1975. Prices for
finished products increased faster than for forms, as did prices for cold-rolled,
high-carbon, alloy, and specialty steels. Import prices for copper, nickel,
tungsten, and titanium fell sharply in 1971 and generally did not regain the
level of 1970 again until 1975. Price trends for petrochemicals-including
benzene, various fibers, plastics and their intermediates, ammonium chloride,
ammonium sulfate, and urea-were highly correlated, due largely to their
derivation from a common base. In most of these cases, however, the lag
behind petroleum price hikes amounted to over a year.
C. Factors Affecting Price Trends
Prices for individual export commodities may have fluctuated just as
much as prices for individual imports. Nevertheless, China's overall export
price index tends to be less volatile than its import price index because China's
exports are dispersed over a wide range of commodities, while imports are
concentrated in a narrow range of goods that are essential to the state.
Because a handful of commodity groups account for the bulk of China's
imports, price instability for any one of these can have a major effect on the
overall import price index. On the other hand, the Chinese are probably in a
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Import Prices in US Dollars
Index: 1970=100
By Sector of Origin
1970 71 72 73 74
By End Use
Note: Import price index for consumer goods is not shown on "End Use" graphic.
and Swiss watches.
573617 B-77
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better bargaining position on prices because they buy a significant share of the
world's exports of some commodities. China, for example, is the world's largest
importer of chemical fertilizers. Moreover, because all transactions are
handled by state trading corporations, the Chinese probably derive some
oligopsonistic power from the ability to offer potentially large sales to
individual firms in the West. Just what effect this leverage has had on import
price trends is difficult to assess. China's import prices have lagged behind
rising world trade prices in recent years, but this may only reflect the long
lead times between the signing of contracts and deliveries for many of China's
imports-in some instances as long as a year or more.
The Chinese siphon off for export some of just about everything they
produce. Until the Chinese began exporting crude oil, no single export took
more than a small share of domestic output. Because China's exports are
scattered over a myriad of products, a sharp drop in price for any single
commodity can have only a small net effect on the overall export price index.
For the same reason, China has little leverage on prices except in a few minor
commodities-bristles, downs, feathers, tung and linseed oil, tungsten, and
antimony, for example.
D. China's International Position
Table 2 compares China's export and import price indexes with export
price indexes for other areas of the world. Dissimilarities in the composition of
Comparative Price Trends '
PRC PAC
Market Industrial Asian LDCs Including Excluding PRC
Economies Countries Excluding Oil Oil Oil # Imports
1970.......... 100 100 100 100 100 100
1971.......... 105 105 98 102 102 92
1972.......... 114 114 101 111 111 95
1973.......... 141 136 140 152 152 122
1974.......... 201 171 196 209 196 184
1975.......... 218 191 177 205 185 191
' Price indexes for non-Communist countries are from International Monetary Fund, International
Financial Statistics, May 1977.
'From table B-1.
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trade largely explain the divergences between the indexes. Prices for China's
exports, even excluding oil, increased faster than those of other Asian less
developed countries (LDCs) but merely kept pace with inflation worldwide.
Unlike China, the Asian LDCs depend on a few commodities-rice, rubber,
sugar, copra, tin, and lumber-for a major share of export earnings. In
general, prices for those commodities fell in 1971-72, shot up in 1973-74, and
dropped again in 1975.
China's import price index oscillated around the export price index for the
industrial countries-China's major suppliers-falling below in 1971 and 1972
largely because of declining prices for fertilizers, nonferrous metals, and steel,
and rising above in 1974 mostly because of the sharp jump in prices for wheat,
cotton, and rubber. Manufactures such as automobiles and other consumer
durables, which have had a stabilizing influence on the export price index of
the industrial countries, were not among China's imports.
E. Terms of Trade
Table 3 presents a method for converting the price indexes derived in
terms of US dollars into indexes in terms of Chinese Ren Min Bi (RMB). From
the Chinese point of view, export prices probably did not begin to rise
perceptibly until 1972. Although China's export price index increased 11
Conversion of PRC Export and Import Price Indexes
From US Dollar to Ren Min Bi Indexes
Exchange Rate RMB Price
Exchange Rates Indexes' Indexes E
RMB/$
$/RMB
$/RMB
$/SDR
Exports
Imports
1970
............................
2.4587
0.4067
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1971
............................
2.3790
0.4203
103.3
100.3
98.7
89.4
1972
............................
2.2420
0.4460
109.7
108.6
100.8
86.2
1973
............................
1.9824
0.5044
124.0
119.2
122.6
98.0
1974
............................
1.9524
0.5122
125.9
120.3
166.3
146.0
1975
............................
1.8597
0.5377
132.2
121.4
155.3
144.2
' Although the RMB is not a convertible currency, export contracts have been denominated in RMB
(payable in foreign currencies), and the Chinese have been careful to maintain consistent cross-rates between
currencies. The RMB has appreciated against the dollar only slightly faster than the SDR.
2 Derived by dividing the dollar export and import price indexes, found in table 1, by the $/RMB
exchange rate index.
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percent in terms of dollars from 1970 to 1972, this was due entirely to the
devaluation of the dollar: measured in Chinese RMB (or even in IMF Special
Drawing Rights-SDRs), export prices were virtually unchanged. Import
prices fell even faster in RMB than in dollars. The resulting terms of trade
index is the same in both currencies, however. China's commodity terms of
trade improved substantially between 1970 and 1973, but thereafter declined
just as quickly as it had risen.
The Chinese insulate internal prices from external inflation, in effect, by
taxing exports and using the proceeds (the difference between the
procurement cost and export revenues) to subsidize imports. So long as export
prices keep pace with rising import prices (and trade is balanced), the
domestic economy can be isolated completely. There is no evidence that the
Chinese responded to the deterioration in the terms of trade after 1973 by
raising internal prices on goods that are exported; but the foreign trade
corporations may have passed along price increases on some imports to the end
users. This could affect purchasing decisions to the extent such decisions are
made at a local level.
To central planners, exports are merely a means of financing imports.
When trade is viewed in barter terms, the terms of trade becomes critical. If
the terms of trade improve, a larger volume of imports can be financed with
the same volume of exports, or exports can be reduced. Declining terms of
trade spell trouble.
III. Aggregate Quantity Trends
Table 4 compares the current and constant dollar values of China's
exports and imports. Current dollar values greatly exaggerated the real growth
in trade. From 1970 to 1975 exports and imports both increased about 250
percent in value, but only 73 percent and 79 percent, respectively, in quantity,
measured in 1970 prices. This is still a healthy growth rate-in comparison,
China's GNP grew only 36 percent; and the volume of world trade, only about
30 percent over the same period.
Current dollar values, moreover, failed to reveal important trade
developments. Price increases disguised the difficulties that Chinese exports
encountered during the world recession, when the volume of PRC exports
actually declined. In 1970 dollars, Chinese exports expanded at a rate of about
15 percent per year from 1970 to 1973, but fell in 1974, and just barely
regained the 1973 level in 1975 (see figure 4). The 1970 dollar series largely
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Trade With Non-Communist Countries, in Current
and Constant Dollars '
Exports
Imports
Current
Dollars
1970
Dollars
1975
Dollars
Current
Dollars
1970
Dollars
1975
Dollars 2
1970 ............................
1,570
1,570
2,973
1,702
1,702
3,975
1971 ............................
1,830
1,794
3,473
1,659
1,795
4,148
1972 ............................
2,345
2,120
4,015
2,087
2,206
4,937
1973 ............................
3,960
2,605
4,946
3,941
3,244
6,595
1974 ............................
5,140
2,455
4,921
5,743
3,125
6,231
1975 ............................
5,565
2,711
5,565
5,820
3,054
5,820
'Exports and imports are valued f.o.b.
8 Reflation of current dollar values into constant 1975 dollars uses 1975-based price indexes that are not
presented in the appendixes.
reflects the real trends for China's traditional exports, however, since little
weight is given to crude oil exports, which were valued at an estimated 1970
price of $1.70 per barrel. In the 1975 dollar series, on the other hand, Chinese
exports continued upward with only a marginal dip in 1974, solely because of
the weight attached to crude oil exports, which were valued at $12.88 per
barrel-the average 1975 price for China's oil exports to Japan.*
Current dollar values also concealed significant trends in the real level of
China's imports. Even though large-scale purchases of complete plants did not
resume until 1972, the volume of imports picked up immediately following
the Cultural Revolution and accelerated every year until 1974, when the worst
trade deficit in PRC history lead to a cutback in the volume of imports.
Imports continued to fall through most of 1975.
A. Export Trends in Current and Constant Dollars
Table 5 presents estimates of current dollar values for China's exports
classified according to sectors of origin, end-use categories, and major
categories of the Standard International Trade Classification. The agricultural
and manufacturing sectors have contributed about equally to China's export
earnings, with the extractive sector coming into the picture only recently.
* The real increase in China's exports from 1973 on is probably somewhat lower than suggested by the
1975 dollar series and somewhat higher than indicated by the 1970 dollar series.
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Figure 4
Trade with Non-Communist Countries
Exports, f.o.b. Imports, f.o.b.
Million US $
7,000
0 1 I I I i 1
1970 71 72 73 74 75
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Exports to Non-Communist Countries
in Current Dollars, f.o.b.
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Total ..............................................................
1,570
1,830
2,345
3,960
5,140
5,565
Sectors of origin
Agriculture ................................................
815
934
1,206
1,794
2,128
2,267
Extraction ..................................................
59
62
60
120
542
902
Manufacturing ..........................................
696
835
1,078
2,046
2,469
2,396
End use
Foodstuffs .................................................
576
670
822
1,184
1,631
1,840
Industrial supplies .....................................
694
799
1,041
1,841
2,453
2,630
Capital goods ............................................
50
76
78
123
154
270
Consumer goods .......................................
250
285
404
812
902
825
Selected SITC categoriesI
Live animals (00) .....................................
65
91
115
145
232
250
Meat (01) ..................................................
71
89
114
158
177
215
Fish (03) ....................................................
58
69
97
149
198
180
Cereals (04) ...............................................
80
65
75
325
570
530
Fruits and vegetables (05) ......................
145
143
166
225
265
270
Coffee, tea, and spices (07) ....................
31
37
53
57
77
110
Oilseeds (22) .............................................
62
66
69
105
119
136
Textile fibers (26) ....................................
94
110
195
325
176
210
Crude animal and vegetable
materials (29) ........................................
94
104
106
148
176
160
Petroleum and products (33) ..................
4
5
7
50
450
815
Textile yarn and fabrics (65) .................
260
245
325
705
690
755
Iron and steel (67) ....................................
15
40
35
85
150
110
Nonferrous metals (68) ............................
16
35
26
50
65
90
Clothing (84) ............................................
70
67
94
280
260
235
Footwear (85) ...........................................
10
10
17
31
40
46
Miscellaneous manufactures (89) ...........
60
64
101
221
240
198
' Data are estimated from the official trade statistics of reporting countries, adjusted to reflect Chinese
exports, f.o.b. Estimates probably are accurate only to ?5 percent. Data are rounded to the nearest $1
million, however, in order to permit replication of procedures. Because of rounding, components may not
add to totals shown.
2 Data are arranged according to the two-digit divisions of the Standard International Trade Classification
(SITC), revised edition. SITC nomenclature has been paraphrased, and SITC index numbers are provided in
parentheses as a reference to more precise descriptions. This listing is not exhaustive: only those categories
for which the corresponding price indexes are judged significant are broken out. Some series reflect revised
estimates and cannot be derived directly from the current value shares shown in table B-2.
Until the surge in oil sales, consumer goods--including durables and
foodstuffs-accounted for slightly more than half of China's exports; since
1973 exports of producer goods-industrial supplies and capital goods-have
edged slightly ahead. Semifinished consumer goods such as textile fibers and
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Exports to Non-Communist Countries
in 1970 Dollars, f.o.b.'
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Total ...........................................................
1,570
1,794
2,120
2,605
2,455
2,711
Sectors of origin
Agriculture .............................................
815
921
1,080
1,112
1,065
1,220
Extraction ...............................................
59
72
68
106
146
199
Manufacturing... ....................................
696
802
971
1,386
1,243
1,292
End use
Foodstuffs ..............................................
576
650
713
732
790
949
Industrial supplies ..................................
694
797
982
1,204
1,074
1,147
Capital goods .........................................
50
77
79
107
119
173
Consumer goods ....................................
250
269
346
562
471
441
Selected SITC categories'
Live animals (00) ..................................
65
87
106
103
112
124
Meat (01) ...............................................
71
84
100
105
86
103
Fish (03) .................................................
58
66
79
92
121
114
Cereals (04) ............................................
80
73
74
163
205
264
Fruits and vegetables (05) ...................
145
140
142
143
152
162
Coffee, tea, and spices (07) .................
31
35
47
37
47
69
Oilseeds (22) ..........................................
62
62
60
62
54
58
Textile fibers (26) .................................
94
103
180
177
85
151
Crude animal and vegetable
materials (29) .....................................
94
112
103
115
117
91
Petroleum and products (33) ...............
4
5
7
26
68
123
Textile yarn and fabrics (65) ..............
260
229
289
418
316
417
Iron and steel (67) .................................
15
42
38
56
70
66
Nonferrous metals (68) .........................
16
41
31
50
34
50
Clothing (84) .........................................
70
63
86
184
117
122
Footwear (85) ........................................
10
9
15
24
23
27
Miscellaneous manufactures (89) ........
60
65
81
176
148
105
' Data are derived by dividing the current dollar values of exports found in table 5 by the corresponding
price indexes found in tables 1 and B-2. Sampling error alone could be as great as ?15 percent. Data are
rounded to the nearest $1 million, however, in order to permit replication of procedures. Because of
rounding, components may not add to totals shown.
2 This listing is not exhaustive: only some of the major two-digit divisions of the Standard International
Trade Classification (SITC) are presented. SITC nomenclature has been paraphrased, and SITC index
numbers are provided in parentheses as a reference to more precise descriptions. The series for textile fibers
(SITC 26) and petroleum and petroleum products (SITC 33) are derived from disaggregated current value
data not shown in table 5.
fabrics account for perhaps half of China's exports of industrial supplies,
however.
Table 6 deflates the current values of table 5 into 1970 dollars. Growth
rates flatten out and become less erratic in the constant dollar series. The
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major fluctuations occurred largely in grains, textiles-fibers, fabrics, and
clothing-and miscellaneous consumer goods. Some exports, such as oilseeds,
were virtually constant over the entire period.
From 1970 to 1972, China's exports of agricultural goods and
manufactures each grew at a real rate of 15 to 20 percent per year (see
figure 5). In 1973 Peking stepped up exports of manufactures-particularly
textile fabrics, clothing, and handicrafts. In order to boost production and
export of finished textiles, Peking not only held back exports of raw textile
fibers but also imported record quantities-cotton imports, for example,
reached 400,000 metric tons. The former action was largely responsible for the
reduced growth rate for agricultural exports. In 1974 exports of manufactures
fell, as did agricultural commodities to a lesser degree. Only oil and rice
appeared to offer any prospects for growth.* Economic recovery got under
way in the developed countries in 1975, and China's exports of textile fibers
and fabrics nearly returned to 1973 levels. Lack of demand among the LDCs
continued to plague China's exports of consumer goods, however.
B. Import Trends in Current and Constant Dollars
Current and constant dollar values for China's imports are presented in
tables 7 and 8, respectively. Most of China's foreign exchange expenditures
have been for finished and semifinished manufactures, rather than for
agricultural or extractive raw materials. Although China's purchases of
foodstuffs and capital goods have attracted much attention, these have been
small in comparison with China's imports of industrial supplies.
In real terms, China's imports of manufactures increased every year since
1970-taking a big leap in 1973 (see figure 6). Sharply increasing imports of
capital goods were largely responsible for maintaining the volume of
manufactures after 1973. Imports of most other commodities fell.
During 1971 to 1973, the first three years of the Fourth Five-Year Plan,
the volume of China's imports of industrial supplies more than doubled, led by
steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, and cotton. Large orders for complete
plants and equipment began in late 1972, but deliveries did not show up in
magnitude until 1974 and 1975. To compensate for the sharp influx of capital
goods and an inability to expand export earnings as rapidly as needed, the
Chinese initially cut the volume of imports of industrial supplies-hardest hit
* From 1972 to 1975 the volume of China's grain exports more than tripled; and in 1975, the value of
grain exports exceeded grain imports for the first time since 1960.
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Exports to Non-Communist Countries
By Sector of Origin By End Use
Million 1970 US $ Million 1970 US $
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Imports from Non-Communist Countries
in Current Dollars, f.o.b.'
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Total ...........................................................
1,702
1,659
2,087
3,941
5,743
5,820
Sectors of origin
Agriculture .............................................
378
361
633
1,246
1,636
940
Extraction ...............................................
88
86
92
242
217
194
Manufacturing .......................................
1,236
1,212
1,362
2,453
3,889
4,686
End use
Foodstuffs ..............................................
283
220
417
828
1,232
634
Industrial supplies ..................................
1,113
1,124
1,354
2,485
3,097'
3,444
Capital goods .........................................
292
300
299
591
1,370
1,707
Consumer goods ....................................
13
14
17
36
43
34
Selected SITC categories 8
Cereals (04) ............................................
256
197
286
655
974
524
Sugar (06) ..............................................
0
0
74
48
26
66
Oilseeds (22) ..........................................
1
0
10
46
131
14
Rubber (23) ...........................................
70
60
63
165
155
133
Textile fibers (26) .................................
94
126
222
370
466
346
Fertilizers (56) .......................................
128
121
127
168
173
327
Plastic materials (58) ............................
26
18
33
46
114
70
Textile yarn and fabrics (65) ..............
37
33
43
60
155
73
Iron and steel (67) .................................
343
395
415
834
1,084
1,285
Nonferrous metals (68) .........................
182
127
195
355
359
386
' Data are estimated from the official trade statistics of reporting countries and reflect Chinese imports,
f.o.b. Estimates probably are accurate only to ?5 percent. Data are rounded to the nearest $1 million,
however, in order to permit replication of procedures. Because of rounding, components may not add to
totals shown.
E This listing is not exhaustive: only some of the major two-digit divisions of the Standard International
Trade Classification (SITC) are presented. SITC nomenclature has been paraphrased and SITC index
numbers are provided in parentheses as a reference to more precise descriptions. Some series reflect revised
estimates and cannot be derived directly from the current value shares shown in table C-2.
were cotton, copper, aluminum, rubber, and fertilizer. Iron and steel imports
reached a plateau in 1973 and fell only marginally thereafter. Grain imports
were lowered slightly in 1974, but in 1975 the volume was cut in half.
In 1976 the current dollar value of China's exports to the non-Communist
countries was virtually unchanged from 1975, at $5.6 billion. Reports from
businessmen attending the Fall 1975 and Spring 1976 Canton Trade Fairs
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Imports From Non-Communist Countries
in 1970 Dollars, f.o.b. '
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Total ...........................................................
1,702
1,795
2,208
3,244
3,125
3,054
Sectors of origin
Agriculture .............................................
378
323
512
783
575
335
Extraction ...............................................
88
114
121
171
101
137
Manufacturing .......................................
1,236
1,360
1,573
2,290
2,449
2,582
End use
Foodstuffs ..............................................
283
197
341
463
430
211
Industrial supplies ..................................
1,113
1,266
1,547
2,318
1,839
1,979
Capital goods .........................................
292
315
304
439
828
846
Consumer goods ....................................
13
17
14
24
28
17
Selected SITC categories Y
Cereals (04) ............................................
256
177
252
374
334
183
Sugar (06) ..............................................
0
0
39
21
4
10
Oilseeds (22) ..........................................
1
0
9
23
58
7
Rubber (23) ...........................................
70
82
85
113
75
95
Textile fibers (26) .................................
94
115
179
284
175
161
Fertilizers (56) .......................................
128
133
137
133
88
87
Plastic materials (58) ............................
26
23
43
39
48
48
Textile yarn and fabrics (65) ..............
37
36
47
49
84
45
Iron and steel (67) .................................
343
424
440
688
640
665
Nonferrous metals (68) .........................
182
257
447
722
524
473
' Data are derived by dividing the current dollar values of imports found in table 7 by the corresponding
price indexes found in tables 1 and C-2. Sampling error alone probably amounts to ?5 percent, and
homogeneity error cannot be estimated. Data are rounded to the nearest $1 million, however, in order to
permit replication of procedures. Because of rounding, components may not add to totals shown.
# This listing is not exhaustive: only some of the major two-digit divisions of the Standard International
Trade Classification (SITC) are presented. SITC nomenclature has been paraphrased, and SITC index
numbers are provided in parenthesis as a reference to more precise descriptions. The series for rubber (SITC
23) and textile fibers (SITC 26) are derived from disaggregated current value data not shown in table 4.
suggested that prices were up sharply. If true, this would indicate another
decline in the volume of export deliveries last year, a not unlikely
development in light of the domestic political upheavals and natural disasters
that occurred.
China's imports from the non-Communist countries dropped to $4.5
billion on an f.o.b. basis, down from $5.8 billion in 1975-the first decline in
the current dollar value since 1971. Limited data suggest that import prices
fell significantly in 1976-unit values for wheat were down about 25 percent,
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Figure 6
Imports from Non-Communist Countries
Million 1970 US $
By Sector of Origin
500
By End Use
71
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steel about 30 percent, and fertilizers about 40 percent. Gross tonnages for
China's major commodity imports were as follows:
IMPORTS UP
Sugar ....................................................
240
520
Rubber .................................................
240
290
Steel .....................................................
3,900
4,500
Copper .................................................
120
150
IMPORTS DOWN
Grain ...................................................
3,300
2,000
Cotton ..................................................
160
100
Fertilizers ............................................
2,900
2,500
Aluminum ...........................................
400
200
The total 1976 dollar value of the commodities that were up in volume-$1.9
billion-was more than twice that for the commodities that were down-$900
million. These figures suggest that the decline in the real value of China's
imports that began in 1974 may have been halted last year.
Most of these imports went into China in the first half of 1976, however;
second half imports were running at only 50 percent of the first half.
D. Factors Affecting Real Trends in Trade
For a number of reasons, the trend in China's trade since 1970 has not
followed changes in national income or production. China's imports, for
example, rose at a real rate of almost 25 percent per year between 1970 and
1973, while the growth of China's GNP was averaging 7 percent. Between
1973 and 1975, the volume of imports fell, even though domestic production
continued to grow.
Because of China's conservative financial policies, the real level of China's
imports is linked through the terms of trade to the real level of exports. As
China's commodity terms of trade change, the real level of both exports and
imports generally changes in the same direction. The only exception was in
1975 when the real value of exports increased rather than declined. This
probably reflects a Chinese need to generate export earnings to settle a larger-
than-planned trade deficit in 1974.
Although China's exports amount to less than 3 percent of national output,
they probably are hampered by domestic supply as well as foreign demand
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constraints. The Chinese appear to move slowly in expanding supplies
available for export in response to increased world prices. In fact, on occasion,
the Chinese have reduced supplies in response to increased prices-if the price
of a commodity increased significantly, earnings apparently exceeded the
target sufficiently to divert some of the supplies that had been earmarked for
export back into domestic use. Conversely, if the price fell, the Chinese ended
up exporting more in order to meet their target for foreign exchange
earnings. *
In contrast, the Chinese have been quite flexible in their ability to alter
import plans to take advantage of falling prices or to shift from commodities
that are rising in price relative to other imports. The import indexes indicate a
75-percent negative correlation between prices and quantities. Some of this
correlation may be spurious, however, since the indexes reflect all shifts in
demand and supply-domestic as well as foreign. For example, the Chinese
may have bought a commodity not because its price had fallen, but because of
a coincidental bottleneck developing in the domestic economy.
In China, the political system sets the boundaries within which the
economics of central planning are generally free to operate. Occasionally
political turbulence has spilled over into the economic arena-certainly during
the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, and the Interregnum of
1976. Although some trade policy issues-most notably, the question of
exporting raw materials in return for capital goods-divided China's
leadership in the recent past, all sides agreed in principle on self-reliance and
on China's conservative financial policies. Even though trade expanded
rapidly from 1969 to 1973, Peking pursued a policy of import substitution,
aimed at reducing China's reliance on foreign economies. At no time did any
Chinese leader espouse either complete autarky or an open-door trade policy.
In 1974, Peking-still under the guidance of Chou En-lai-cut back imports
in order to prevent a balance-of-payment crisis. Although criticism of
"worshipping things foreign" appeared in the PRC media at that time as part
of the Anti-Confucius Campaign, economic factors . probably explain the
decline in the real level of trade. In late 1975 and early 1976, Peking-by then
* For example, from 1973 to 1974, the average price per head for China's hog exports to Hong Kong
jumped from $43.87 to $63.58, but the Chinese cut back deliveries from 2.68 million to 2.37 million head as
foreign exchange earnings climbed from US $118 million to $151 million. Domestic supply constraints may
have been the reason for the cutback since the hog population in Kwangtung Province, neighboring Hong
Kong, had remained constant in 1973 and 1974, at 14.4 million to 14.5 million head. (The hog population in
China as a whole, however, increased from 202 million head to 231 million). Conversely, from 1974 to 1975
the average Hong Kong price fell marginally, but the Chinese increased exports to 2.61 million head. In
Kwangtung, the hog population had increased to 15.8 million head.
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under the leadership of Teng Hsiao-ping-stepped up purchases, and imports
expanded. Teng's ouster and the political turmoil that followed resulted in a
halt in many trade negotiations and a sharp decline in imports in the second
half of 1976. With the "Gang of Four" eliminated, the current Chinese
leadership has now called for a return to the active trade policies initiated by
Chou. Nevertheless, China's ability to increase exports will remain a major
constraint on the growth of imports, and a basically cautious Chinese attitude
towards trade is likely to persist for many years.
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Appendix A
Methodology
This appendix contains a brief description of the procedures used to
estimate the price indexes for China's exports and imports found in appen-
dixes B and C, respectively, and in table 1 of the text, and a short analysis of
the accuracy of these indexes. A more detailed explanation and a complete
listing of the sample commodities found in tables B-3 and C-3 are available
upon request.
The major objective of this research was to construct price-and
ultimately quantity-indexes for China's trade that are roughly comparable to
the indexes of countries that publish detailed trade statistics. Index number
practices vary from country to country with respect to prices, sampling
procedures, weighting formulas, and construction techniques. The United
States, Japan, and West Germany, for example, construct export and import
price indexes from a sample of contract prices taken at the time of shipment or
delivery. All other countries derive unit value indexes from highly
disaggregated trade data. Only the United States uses the chain-linked
(moving base) Fisher formula for both the price and quantity indexes. Other
countries use some combination of Laspeyres, Paasche, or Fisher indexes, but
with fixed base years. Probably most construct Laspeyres quantity indexes and
Paasche price indexes, the latter derived by dividing the appropriate indexes
of current value by the former.
In previous studies, rough estimates of price trends for China's trade were
made using the price indexes of trade for "representative" market economies
as a proxy. However, this procedure can lead to erroneous results, because (a)
the commodities reflected in the surrogate indexes are not necessarily those
that China trades, and (b) China's prices-both for exports and imports-may
diverge from free market prices as a result of barter arrangements, political
maneuvering, and certain other features of state trading. To be reliable,
therefore, indexes for China's trade must reflect the prices and quantities of
goods actually traded by China.
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The Construction of Indexes for PRC Trade
In this study, unit value indexes have been derived for China's exports and
imports from trade partner statistics. The indexes were constructed using
current value weights (the Paasche formula) with a fixed base year. The
availability of data dictated the methods used to construct the indexes.
Prices and quantities for major Chinese contracts are occasionally
published in trade reports and press articles. This information generally is not
in a form suitable to derive price indexes, however. Indexes that are used to
deflate trade should reflect prices at the time of shipment, since value data are
recorded on that basis. Contract prices should be used to derive price indexes
only if they are concurrent with the value data. To obtain price data on that
basis entails a massive sampling effort-so far, afforded only by the United
States, West Germany, and Japan. Unit value indexes have the advantage of
automatically being in phase with the value data they are designed to deflate.
Furthermore, the benefits of a much larger sample size that can be obtained
from trade returns probably outweigh the disadvantage of using unit values as
a proxy for prices.
Highly disaggregated commodity data have never been compiled for
China's trade. Although the Country-by-Commodity Series,* prepared by the
US Department of Commerce through 1974, contains quantity and value
information for China's trade with 30 to 40 countries, the data have been
aggregated to approximately the four- or five-digit level of the Standard
International Trade Classification (SITC) and are not sufficiently detailed to
provide accurate unit values. The only alternative was to derive unit values for
commodities from six-, seven-, and eight-digit levels of the official statistics of
China's trade partners.
Not all developed countries and few LDCs publish country-by-
commodity trade data which are that detailed, however. The United
Kingdom, for example, publishes country-by-commodity data only down to
the five-digit level, even though the statistical office publishes much more
detailed data on a commodity-only basis. In order to prevent China's trade
with the developed countries from assuming inordinate weight in the price
indexes, the trade partner statistics were sampled on a geographic basis. For
China's exports, data were drawn from the country-by-commodity trade
statistics of Japan, France, and Canada among the developed countries; and
* US Department of Commerce, International Trade Analysis Staff, Country-by-Commodity Series,
Exports to and Imports from Communist Areas in Eastern Europe and Asia, and Cuba by Free World
Countries.
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from those of Hong Kong, Singapore, and the East African Customs Union
among the LDCs. On the import side, the French statistics were dropped; and
German, Swedish, and Moroccan data were added.
Stratified sampling techniques were used in order to select the sample
commodities from each country's annual trade returns. The final data set
consisted of 528 export commodities and 192 import commodities. Examples
of the unit value statistics derived for each of the sample commodities are in
tables B-3 and C-3.
The unit value indexes for the sample commodities were first aggregated
into price indexes for two-digit SITC divisions using the current value share of
each sample commodity in the two-digit group as a weight. The price indexes
for the 55 export and 33 import divisions are presented in tables B-2 and C-2.
The two-digit price indexes were then weighted by the known two-digit
current value shares for China's trade with the non-Communist countries as a
whole * to form aggregate price indexes for exports and imports and for
various economic classifications of traded items. Because price trends tend to
be more highly correlated within divisions than between divisions, the
reweighting gives proper emphasis to price trends for various groups of
commodities and prevents any single commodity, such as red spring wheat
imports from Canada, from having inordinate weight in the overall price
index. The two-digit level price indexes were assigned to the various economic
classes as shown in table A-1. The aggregate price indexes are in tables B-1 and
C-1.
All price indexes in this research aid are of the Paasche variety, which
may be expressed as a weighted aggregative:
_ 213t. qt
Pt 2po, qt
where: "P" is the Paasche price index, "p" and "q" refer to the prices and
quantities of the commodities in the sample; and the subscripts "0" and "t"
* Derived from the annual Summary Tables, Exports to and Imports from Communist Areas in
Eastern Europe and Asia, and Cuba, by Free World Countries, prepared by US Department of Commerce,
International Trade Analysis Staff (ITAS) through 1974. For 1975, the data were from CIA, People's
Republic of China: International Trade Handbook, October 1976. The two-digit SITC level was choosen
because it is the most detailed level for which nearly complete current value data on China's trade with the
non-Communist countries can be obtained.
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Concordance of SITC Classification With Economic
Classifications of Traded Goods'
00
Live animals
Sector
of
Origin
A
End
Use
F
Sector
of
Origin
End
Use
01
Meat
A
F
52
Mineral tars
M
I
02
Dairy products
A
F
53
Dyeing materials
M
I
03
Fish
A
F
54
Pharmaceutical products
M
C
04
Cereals
A
F
55A
Essential oils
M
I
05
Fruits and vegetables
A
F
55B
Perfumery and soaps
M
C
06
Sugar
A
F
56
Fertilizers, manufactured
M
I
07
Coffee, tea, and spices
A
F
57
Explosives
M
I
08
Animal feedstuffs
A
F
58
Plastics
M
I
09
Miscellaneous food preparations
A
F
59
Chemicals, n.e.s.
M
I
11
Beverages
M
F
61
Leather and dressed-fur skins
M
I
12A
Tobacco, unmanufactured
A
I
62
Rubber manufactures
M
I
12B
Tobacco, manufactured
M
C
63
Wood and cork manufactures
M
I
64
Paper and paperboard
M
I
21
Hides and skins
A
I
65A
Textile yarn and fabrics
M
I
22
Oil seeds, nuts, and kernels
A
F
65B
Textile articles: blankets and rugs
M
C
23A
Crude rubber, natural
E
I
66
Mineral manufactures
M
I
23B
Crude rubber, synthetic
M
I
67
Iron and steel
M
I
24
Wood and cork
E
I
68
Nonferrous metals
M
I
25
Pulp
M
I
69A
Metal manufactures: industrial
M
I
26A
Textile fibers, natural
A
I
69B
Metal manufactures: hand tools
M
K
26B
Textile fibers, synthetic
M
I
69C
Metal manufactures: household products
M
C
27
Crude minerals and fertilizers
E
I
28
Metalliferous ores and scrap metals
E
I
71
Nonelectric machinery
M
K
29
Crude animal and vegetable materials
A
I
72
Electric machinery
M
K
73
Transport equipment
M
K
32
Coal and coke
E
I
33A
Crude oil
E
I
81
Plumbing, heating, and lighting fixtures
M
C
33B
Petroleum products
M
I
82
Furniture
M
C
83
Travel goods and handbags
M
C
41
Animal oils and fats
A
I
84
Clothing
M
C
42
Vegetable oils and fats
A
I
85
Footwear
M
C
43
Animal and vegetable oils, processed
M
I
86A
Precision instruments
M
K
86B
Watches and clocks
M
C
51
Chemical elements and compounds
M
I
89
Miscellaneous manufactures
M
C
Economic Classification of Code Letters:
Sector of Origin
A - Agriculture
E - Extraction
M - Manufacturing
End Use
F - Foodstuffs
I - Industrial supplies
K - Capital goods
C - Consumer goods
' This system of concordances was designed specifically to
accommodate the data that are available for China's trade, although
it generally follows the Standard Industrial Classification for
economic sectors and the US OBE, End-Use Commodity Categor-
ies. Commodities within a two-digit division of the SITC generally
are homogeneous enough to fit entirely within one of the sector and
end-use categories. Some two-digit divisions, however, must be
subdivided in order to distribute China's exports or imports
properly. China's exports of tobacco, for instance, are composed of
both raw tobacco and cigarettes. Raw tobacco (SITC t21) is
included in the agricultural sector and as an industrial supply.
Processed tobacco (SITC 122) is included as a product of the
manufacturing sector and as a consumer good. Processed foodstuffs,
which have accounted for 5 to 10 percent of total PRC exports to the
non-Communist countries in recent years, are difficult to separate
from other foodstuffs even at the five-digit level of the SITC and
were, therefore, left in the agricultural sector, although they
rightfully belong in manufacturing. Some two-digit divisions
contained commodities such as peanut oil that serve dual purposes;
these commodity groups were assigned arbitrarily to the most likely
end-use category. The sector of origin and end-use categories in this
Research Aid differ somewhat from the categories found in PRC:
International Trade Handbook. In this paper, for example, the
foodstuffs series includes oilseeds but excludes tobacco. Likewise,
the series for capital goods covers hand tools and precision
instruments in addition to machinery and transport equipment.
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are the base year and current year, respectively. This formula was reworked
into the algebraically identical weighted average of price relatives:
pt - (
)1(
PC Pt' qt /
t
t )
t t
This form of the expression was used because the required data were readily
available. The expression shows that the weight attached to each price relative
is the current value share of each item in the sample. This is true both at the
most disaggregated level and at the two-digit level.
Crude oil exports and sugar and oilseed imports are not included in the
price indexes in the appendixes. Since these three groups of commodities were
not traded by China in every year since 1970, a separate solution was required
in order to incorporate them into the aggregate price indexes and constant
value series presented in the text. The procedure was the same for all three:
quantities for the commodities were derived directly from trade partner
statistics. Export or import prices for 1970 were estimated from market prices,
and multiplied by the quantities to derive a constant value series in 1970
dollars. The Paasche price indexes were then derived by dividing the current
value of total exports or imports by the sum of the constant 1970 dollar values.
Table A-2 presents the procedure for China's exports as an example. Tables
A-3 and A-4 present the quantity and value information for sugar and oilseed
imports used in estimating the constant value series and aggregate price
indexes for China's imports.
The Accuracy of the Indexes
All index numbers contain at least three sources of error: (1) a formula
error, resulting from the choice of weights used to average prices or quantities;
(2) a sampling error, since for all practical purposes every index is based on
sampling; and (3) a homogeneity error, resulting from the introduction of new
goods or the elimination of old, for which comparisons of actual traded prices
and quantities in the base and current years are not possible. If unit values are
used as a proxy for prices, a fourth error arises.
In using unit value indexes, it must always be explicitly recognized that
they reflect changes both in prices and in the quality of the items traded.
Quality changes have less effect on the indexes as commodities become more
narrowly defined. The accuracy of a unit value index is thus a function of the
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Table A-2
Procedure for Estimating Aggregate Price Index
for PRC Exports, Including Crude Oil'
Total Oil Non-Oil
Exports Exports Exports
Current Value
(E Pt ? qt) (1) (2) (3)
1970 ........................................ 1,570 1,570
1971 ........................................ 1,830 1,830
1972 ........................................ 2,345 2,345
1973 ........................................ 3,960 32 3,928
1974 ........................................ 5,140 413 4,727
1975 ........................................ 5,565 741 4,824
Constant Value
(Z P70 ? qt) (4) (5) (6)
1970 ........................................ 1,570 1,570
1971 ........................................ 1,794 1,794
1972 ........................................ 2,120 2,120
1973 ........................................ 2,605 12 2,593
1974 ........................................ 2,455 49 2,406
1975 ........................................ 2,711 98 2,613
Paasche Price index:
1970=100
(Y-Pt ? qty E P70. qt) (7)
1970 ............................... ...... 100.0
1971 ........................................ 102.0
1972 ........................................ 110.6
1973 ........................................ 152.0
1974 ........................................ 209.4
1975 ........................................ 205.3
' The current dollar values of China's crude oil exports (2) were
subtracted from total exports (1) for each year to obtain the value of
non-oil exports (3). Column 3 was divided by the price index for
PRC exports, excluding oil, taken from table B-1 to derive the 1970
values for non-oil exports (6). A price of $1.70 per barrel was
estimated based on the average price of Indonesia's crude oil exports
to Japan for 1970. This price was applied to the quantity of China's
crude oil exports for 1973 to 1975 to obtain the 1970 dollar values
(5). Columns 6 and 5 summed to the 1970 dollar values for total
exports (4). The aggregate export price index (7) was then derived
by dividing column 1 by column 4.
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Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
Totals .................................
471,000
73,876
259,000
48,328
54,000
25,968
123,000
65,738
Australia .........................
35,560
4,733
63,910
12,205
29,880
14,728
35,700
13,241
Brazil ..............................
429,000
68,303
195,100
36,123
3,620
560
71,940
46,670
Others ............................
6,000
840
0
0
20,940
10,680
15,015
5,827
Data are complied from official trade statistics of China's trade partners, and the values are f.o.b. Except for 82,000 tons of refined
Brazilian sugar (worth $15,114,000) imported in 1972, most Chinese imports are of raw sugar.
2 Quantities are rounded to the nearest thousand metric tons.
s Includes Guyana, Jamaica, the Congo, and the Phillipines. No sugar was imported from the non-Communist countries prior to 1972.
Total ..........................
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
530
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
9,752
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
46,313
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
130,535
Metric
Tons
Thousand
US$
14,000
Soybeans' ..............
0
0
1,486
190
198,249
43,365
569,674
126,519
31,507
6,706
Sesame seeds 5.......
1,973
530
6,907
1,966
9,867
2,948
NA
NA
NA
NA
Peanuts * ................
0
0
29,166
7,596
0
0
NA
NA
NA
NA
I Data are compiled from publications of the US Government. Because commodity detail is not reported by all countries, values are
necessarily understated. Nevertheless, PRC imports of oilseeds have been erratic, as suggested by the above figures. No purchases are
believed to have been made by China in 1971. Value data are f.o.b.
2 Includes imports from Brazil and the United States.
9 Imported from the Sudan.
4 Imported from the Sudan and Nigeria.
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variance in prices of all the items subsumed within a commodity classification.
If that variance is small, unit value indexes will accurately reflect true price
indexes, even if composition shifts have occurred.
At any specified level of a. trade classification system, unit values for more
complex products appear to be less reliable than those for commodities with
little processing. This is a particular problem in the case of the unit value
indexes for capital goods, where a great variety of machinery may be included
within even the most specific categories. Customs classifications generally
were not designed for the purpose of deriving unit value indexes, however,
and the accuracy of unit values are not always a function of the stage of
processing. For example, PRC exports of walnuts and table salt-which might
appear homogeneous-vary significantly in price, depending on grade.
For comparisons over short periods of time, unit value indexes probably
provide reasonable approximations, since market patterns remain fairly
constant and quality shifts tend to be random and thus average out when the
indexes for individual commodities are aggregated. Over longer periods,
improvements in the quality of products may bias a unit value index to the
high side.
The Laspeyres and Paasche indexes provide a conservative estimate of the
upper and lower bounds, respectively, of a true utility price index. * The
Paasche price indexes in this paper, therefore, tend to underestimate the true
increase in prices; and the constant dollar values tend to overestimate the real
increase in quantities. For PRC exports, formula error may have amounted to
as much as 1 percent for contiguous years and up to 5 percent for a
comparison between 1970 and 1974. For PRC imports, formula error may
have amounted to as much as 2 percent for contiguous years and up to 23
percent for a comparison between 1970 and 1975.
The downward bias of the Paasche formula, however, tends to
compensate for any upward bias resulting from the use of unit values as a
substitute for prices. The Paasche index thus provides more accurate results
than if a Laspeyres index had been used to deflate trade. Furthermore, the
Paasche price index yields easily interpretable results when used to deflate the
current value of trade:
Current Value
E pt qt
_ = EP q
Ept?gt o, t
EP0,gt
* For more on this subject, see Melville J. Ulmer, The Economic Theory of Cost of Living Index
Numbers (New York: Columbia University Press, 1949).
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The latter expression is merely the total value of current year quantities (q t) if
those quantities had been traded at base year prices (p 0).
Although statistics are available to measure the sampling error of index
numbers when sampling is stratified, weighted, or without replacement, no
formula has been devised to measure the variance of the average when all
three techniques are used, as in this research aid; * therefore, this error was
estimated by analyzing variances for several subsets of the overall sample. For
China's exports, the sample size for the items in table B-3 ranged from 31
percent to 40 percent of the value of China's non-oil exports to the non-
Communist countries. The maximum sampling error for the export price
index is estimated at ?15 percent. With oil included in the sample, the sample
size increased to 46 percent in 1975 and error was reduced, perhaps to ?10
percent. For China's imports the sample size for the items in table C-3 was
consistently above 50 percent, and the maximum sampling error was estimat-
ed at ?5 percent.
Homogeneity error, resulting from unique commodities appearing or
disappearing from trade, cannot be measured. For China's exports, this error is
probably minor. Although the Chinese have made several claims about the
increasing numbers of commodities available for export, many of these items
are for exhibition purposes, and actual sales are probably small relative to
China's traditional exports. For China's imports, however, homogeneity error
could be large-many of China's capital goods imports are one of a kind.
Two steps were taken to minimize homogeneity errors: first, the three
most important groups of commodities that were not traded in each of the six
years covered by the indexes were deflated separately. Theoretically, the base
year price used to integrate these commodities into the price indexes and
constant value series should have been the y-intercepts of China's export
supply and import demand functions. Because these functions cannot be
estimated, world market prices were used instead. This procedure (i.e., the use
of market prices as a substitute for the y-intercept price) tends to overestimate
the true utility price index for China's crude oil exports and to underestimate
the true increase in prices for China's sugar and oilseed imports (for the 1970-
based indexes). On the export side, the actual price that would have been
sufficient to induce the Chinese to export just one unit of crude oil in 1970
must have been somewhat higher than the world market price. Prima facie
evidence of this is the fact that China did not export any crude oil at the going
price of $1.70 per barrel in 1970. (Not until oil reached $4.54 per barrel did
* For further details, see Bruce D. Mudgett, Index Numbers (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
1951), pp. 51-54.
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China export a drop). On the import side, the actual price that would have
sufficed to induce the Chinese to import sugar, soybeans, and other oilseeds
must have been somewhat lower than the world market price, which obviously
the Chinese refused to pay. The degree of distortion in the export and import
price indexes resulting from the use of market prices as a substitute for
the y-intercept price is impossible to determine.
Second, homogeneity errors were reduced by first constructing the
Paasche price indexes directly from the data for commodities covered in the
sample, and then deriving the constant value data-or quantity indexes--by
dividing the price indexes into total value data for all commodities. This
procedure assumes that the price trends for commodities not covered in the
index are similar to the trends for those that are. Most countries, however,
construct quantity indexes first (simply because it involves fewer steps), and
then derive price indexes. An implicit assumption of this latter procedure is
that quantity trends for commodities that are not included in the index are
similar to the trends for those that are. Price trends probably are more highly
correlated than quantity trends, however, both because of market imperfec-
tions (prices, once raised, are hard to lower) and because of inflationary fiscal
policies worldwide. For this reason, homogeneity errors can be reduced by
constructing price indexes first.
All errors considered, the export price indexes developed in this paper are
probably more accurate than the import price indexes. Although sampling
error is smaller for the import price indexes; unit value error, formula error,
and homogeneity error are smaller for the export price indexes.
111
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Aggregate Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Exports, Excluding Crude Oil
Paasche price indexes (1970=100)
Exports ..............................................
100.0
102.0
110.6
151.5
196.5
184.6
Sectors of origin
Agriculture ................................
100.0
101.4
111.1
161.3
199.8
185.8
Extraction ..................................
100.0
85.8
88.6
93.9
133.1
160.1
Manufacturing ..........................
100.0
104.1
111.0
147.6
198.7
185.5
End use
Foodstuffs .................................
100.0
103.0
115.3
161.7
206.5
193.8
Industrial supplies ...................
100.0
100.2
106.0
151.8
199.1
180.0
Capital goods ...........................
100.0
98.8
98.6
115.4
128.9
156.5
Consumer goods... ...................
100.0
105.9
116.9
144.6
191.4
166.9
Current value weights
Exports ..............................................
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
Sectors of origin
Agriculture ................................
0.51940
0.51024
0.51441
0.45678
0.45026
0.46995
Extraction ..................................
0.03746
0.03364
0.02571
0.02230
0.02740
0.03343
Manufacturing ..........................
0.44313
0.45611
0.45987
0.52090
0.52233
0.49660
End use
Foodstuffs .................................
0.36663
0.36609
0.35035
0.30131
0.34506
0.38140
Industrial supplies ...................
0.44204
0.43643
0.44411
0.46056
0.43159
0.39158
Capital goods ...........................
0.03202
0.04173
0.03332
0.03140
0.03253
0.05590
Consumer goods ......................
0.15929
0.15573
0.17220
0.20672
0.19080
0.17110
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Poasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Exports, Excluding Crude Oil, at
the Two-Digit Level of the Standard International Trade Classification
SITC Classification
1970
1971
1972
00 Live animals
Index ....................................
100.0
104.2
108.5
140.7
206.3
2016
Weight .................................
0.04170
0.04963
0.04924
0.03672
0.04521
0.04493
01
Meat
Index ....................................
100.0
105.8
113,9
150.1
204.8
209.3
Weight .................................
0.04518
0.04866
0.04847
0.03986
0.03453
0.03866
02
Dairy products
Index ....................................
100.0
101.7
109.5
130.7
187.4
193.2
Weight .................................
0.01778
0.01775
0.01414
0.01121
0.01370
0.01358
03
Fish
Index ....................................
100.0
105.0
123.3
162.1
164.2
158.5
Weight .................................
0.03725
0.03795
0.04118
0.03762
0.03853
0.03239
04
Cereals
Index ....................................
100.0
88.8
101.7
199.0
277.9
200.8
Weight .................................
0.05974
0.03924
0.03056
0.04376
0.07077
0.11076
05
Fruits and vegetables
Index ....................................
100.0
102.4
117.0
157.2
173.9
167.0
Weight .................................
0.08400
0.08724
0.08289
0.06450
0.06427
0.05642
06
Sugar and honey
Index ....................................
100.0
128.2
184.1
271.3
438.9
435.3
Weight .................................
0.00760
0.01034
0.01246
0.01134
0.01662
0.01044
07
Coffee, tea, and spices
Index ....................................
100.0
104.4
112.9
155.3
164.3
158.6
Weight .................................
0.01947
0.02043
0.02271
0.01440
0.01503
0.01985
08
Animal feedstuffs
Index ....................................
100.0
109.9
111.2
155.6
199.1
212.9
Weight .................................
0.00402
0.00502
0.00420
0.00473
0.00430
0.01462
09
Miscellaneous food prepara-
tions
Index ....................................
100.0
105.0
116.1
156.9
195.0
202.1
Weight .................................
0.00445
0.00416
0.00432
0.00530
0.00681
0.00731
11
Beverages
Index ....................................
100.0
109.5
127.3
159.8
181.9
192.2
Weight .................................
0.00585
0.00549
0.00575
0.00492
0.00455
0.00417
12A Tobacco, unmanufactured
Index ....................................
100.0
93.0
105.5
147.3
203.3
244.2
Weight .................................
0.00527
0.00544
0.00442
0.00411
0.00435
0.00391
12B
Tobacco, manufactured
Index ....................................
100.0
123.7
175.0
203.4
194.5
246.0
Weight .................................
0.00131
0.00122
0.00110
0.00102
0.00108
0.00130
21
Hides and skins, undressed
Index ....................................
100.0
97.6
113.0
191.1
231.3
173.6
Weight .................................
0.01074
0.01111
0.01110
0.00763
0.00456
0.00417
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Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Exports, Excluding Crude Oil, at
the Two-Digit Level of the Standard International Trade Classification (Continued)
SITC
Classification
1970
22
Oilseeds, oil nuts, and oil
kernels
Index ....................................
100.0
106.8
115.6
169.5
218.9
234.9
Weight .................................
0.03954
0.04013
0.03437
0.02691
0.03070
0.02821
24
Wood, lumber, and cork
Index... .................................
100.0
81.6
112.1
268.1
315.2
231.2
Weight .................................
0.00036
0.00111
0.00077
0.00146
0.00173
0.00313
26A Textile fibers, natural
Index ....................................
100.0
106.9
108.1
184.1
207.0
138.8
Weight .................................
0.06607
0.06159
0.09350
0.09753
0.04490
0.04388
27
Crude minerals and fertilizers
Index ....................................
100.0
109.2
105.4
116.3
139.5
164.1
Weight .................................
0.01854
0.01753
0.01462
0.01189
0.01472
0.02089
28
Metalliferous ores and scrap
metal
Index ....................................
100.0
52.0
61.7
58.8
95.4
118.8
Weight .................................
0.01309
0.00824
0.00714
0.00647
0.00662
0.00626
29
Crude animal and vegetable
material
Index ....................................
100.0
92.6
102.5
129.0
150.1
174.9
Weight .................................
0.06624
0.06308
0.05300
0.04475
0.04533
0.03343
32
Coal and coke
Index ....................................
100.0
113.5
110.0
125.1
170.1
206.3
Weight .................................
0.00546
0.00675
0.00316
0.00246
0.00431
0.00313
33B
Petroleum products
Index ....................................
100.0
101.1
110.0
132.8
191.8
298.6
Weight .................................
0.00237
0.00292
0.00320
0.00329
0.01047
0.01567
42
Vegetable oils and fats
Index ....................................
100.0
87.8
87.0
114.7
224.9
202.1
Weight .................................
0.01029
0.00840
0.00777
0.00633
0.01057
0.00731
43
Animal and vegetable oils
and fats, processed
Index ....................................
100.0
101.0
96.1
110.0
121.0
161.5
Weight .................................
0.00026
0.00038
0.00040
0.00024
0.00030
0.00104
51
Chemical elements and com-
pounds
Index ....................................
100.0
118.4
123.7
147.0
225.9
267.1
Weight .................................
0.01260
0.01403
0.01188
0.01347
0.01947
0.01567
53
Dyeing materials
Index ....................................
100.0
92.9
121.0
169.8
198.9
191.8
Weight .................................
0.00253
0.00251
0.00265
0.00393
0.00490
0.00313
54
Medicinal products
Index ....................................
100.0
108.5
116.7
137.1
151.8
160.1
Weight .................................
0,00549
0.00615
0.00752
0.00745
0.00834
0.01149
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Exports, Excluding Crude Oil, at
the Two-Digit Level of the Standard International Trade Classification (Continued)
SITC
Classification
1970
55A
Essential oils
Index ....................................
100.0
117.2
116.7
168.1
397.0
217.4
Weight .................................
0.00389
0.00198
0.00192
0.00215
0.00436
0.00313
55B
Perfumery and soap
Index ....................................
100.0
102.2
109.8
133.1
152.7
180.9
Weight.- ..............................
0.00389
0.00198
0.00192
0.00215
0.00436
0.00313
57
Explosives
Index ....................................
100.0
100.2
101.7
113.6
156.4
195.5
Weight .................................
0.00264
0.00289
0.00239
0.00232
0.00295
0.00313
58
Plastic materials
Index ....................................
100.0
113.9
114.3
127.2
301.0
205.0
Weight .................................
0.00035
0.00070
0.00080
0.00074
0.00068
0.00104
59
Chemicals, n.e.s.
Index ....................................
10R O
123.2
126.0
146.6
177.3
209.6
Weight .................................
0.02669
0.02365
0.02270
0.02259
0.02666
0.01358
61
Leather and dressed fur skins
Index ....................................
100.0
104.3
100.5
121.9
159.5
157.6
Weight .................................
0.00806
0.00875
0.01066
0.01128
0.01092
0.01044
62
Rubber manufactures
Index ....................................
100.0
96.2
117.2
134.6
191.7
190.2
Weight .................................
0.00151
0.00264
0.00199
0.00179
0.00237
0.00208
63
Wood and cork manufactures
Index ....................................
100.0
138.0
160.3
206.1
221.9
169.0
Weight .................................
0.00375
0.00409
0.00421
0.00432
0.00377
0.00417
64
Paper and paperboard
Index ....................................
100.0
97.2
102.1
148.8
243.0
206.1
Weight .................................
0.01206
0.01331
0.01204
0.01336
0.01347
0.00940
65A
Textile yarn and fabrics
Index ....................................
100.0
104.7
110.2
171.4
222.0
175.4
Weight .................................
0.11225
0.10212
0.09939
0.12495
0.10016
0.11703
65B
Textile articles: blankets and
rugs
Index ....................................
100.0
112.7
118.9
161.7
214.9
199.1
Weight .................................
0.04810
0.04376
0.04259
0.05355
0.04292
0.04179
66
Nonmetallic mineral manu-
factures
Index ....................................
100.0
103.9
114.9
163.1
302.8
241.6
Weight .................................
0.03057
0.03016
0.03582
0.03221
0.03629
0.02298
67
Iron and steel
index ....................................
100.0
94.6
92.9
152.4
212.8
167.4
Weight .................................
0.00976
0.01912
0.01682
0.02028
0.03503
0.01358
68
Nonferrous metals
Index ....................................
100.0
86.0
83.2
100.4
189.2
178.6
Weight .................................
0.01114
0.01378
0.01275
0.01219
0.01409
0.01880
Approved For Release 2001/03/22: CIA-R P79B0 457
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Exports, Excluding Crude Oil, at
the Two-Digit Level of the Standard International Trade Classification (Continued)
69A
Metal manufactures: indus-
trial
Index ....................................
100.0
91.1
95.8
135.3
208.0
199.4
Weight .................................
0.00543
0.01003
0.00890
0.00868
0.00847
0.01044
69B Metal manufactures: hand
tools
Index ....................................
100.0
104.5
97.9
101.0
107.0
145.6
Weight .................................
0.00217
0.00401
0.00356
0.00347
0.00338
0.00417
69C Metal manufactures: house-
hold products
Index ....................................
100.0
102.6
99.3
124.7
153.4
126.6
Weight .................................
0.00326
0.00602
0.00534
0.00520
0.00508
0.00626
71
Nonelectric machinery
Index ....................................
100.0
104.1
100.7
137.7
133.7
160.2
Weight .................................
0.01377
0.01835
0.01423
0.01235
0.01272
0.02507
72
Electric machinery
Index ....................................
100.0
101.9
102.9
124.2
126.1
143.3
Weight .................................
0.00826
0.00877
0.00757
0.00621
0.00793
0.01044
73
Transport equipment
Index ....................................
100.0
96.2
101.3
109.0
148.5
173.1
Weight .................................
0.00655
0.00916
0.00650
0.00749
0.00679
0.01462
81
Plumbing, heating, and light-
ing fixtures
Index ....................................
100.0
111.3
109.6
138.2
163.6
167.2
Weight .................................
0.00282
0.00363
0.00336
0.00290
0.00316
0.00313
82
Furniture
Index ............ ..............
100.0
108.1
136.9
206.8
284.6
234.2
Weight .................................
0.00422
0.00505
0.00593
0.00601
0.00565
0.00626
83
Travel goods and handbags
Index ....................................
100.0
99.4
138.7
162.4
192.3
246.1
Weight .................................
0.00427
0.00387
0.00478
0.00619
0.00519
0.00313
84
Clothing
Index ....................................
100.0
105.9
108.9
152.2
222.0
192.1
Weight .................................
0.03887
0.04107
0.04649
0.05650
0.05865
0.04911
85
Footwear
Index ....................................
100.0
105.4
113.9
130.0
170.3
171.5
Weight .................................
0.00624
0.00567
0.00714
0.00776
0.00779
0.00835
86A
Precision instruments
Index ....................................
100.0
54.3
64.9
63.3
99.9
108.2
Weight .................................
0.00125
0.00142
0.00145
0.00185
0.00168
0.00156
86B
Watches and clocks
Index ....................................
100.0
99.1
104.5
124.2
162.3
154.0
Weight .................................
0.00234
0.00238
0.00292
0.00215
0.00177
0.00156
89
Miscellaneous manufactures
Index ....................................
100.0
98.6
124.3
125.5
162.6
188.1
Weight- ...............................
0.03843
0.03488
0.04305
0.05576
0.04674
0.03552
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79BOO457AO00700060001-0
A Sample of the Commodities Included in the Export Price Index *
Commodity No.
Destination
Description
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
00-Live animals
Sample size US$ ....................
60141160
83194969
100876514
127043698
183562075
196660815
Percent ..............
92.57
92.96
92.63
94.78
94.47
91.47
00110000000
Bovine cattle
Hong Kong
Unit value US$/head ...................
48.7862
59.9008
52.3725
74.5673
149.1151
119.7688
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
122.7
107.3
152.8
305.6
245.4
Current value weight ...................
0.07466
0.06268
0.06247
0.05926
0.09445
.08633
001202000000
Goats
Hong Kong
Unit value US$/head ...................
7.2327
10.7628
11.2008
12.5193
17.4311
21.0207
Unit value index ..........................
100.0
148.8
154.8
173.0
241.0
290.6
Current value weight ...................
0.00157
0.00219
0.00234
0.00202
0.00147
0.00206
001300000000
Swine
Hong Kong
Unit value US$/head ....................
31.7308
32.6249
34.0212
43.8721
63.5754
62.9571
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
102.8
107.2
138.2
200.3
198.4
Current value weight ...................
0.86160
0.85932
0.84530
0.92588
0.81994
0.83579
001401000000
Chicken
Hong Kong
Unit value US$/lb ........................
0.2707
0.2894
0.3341
0.4169
0.5196
0.5281
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
106.9
123.4
154.0
191.9
195.0
Current value weight ...................
0.06215
0.07579
0.8988
0.11282
0.08411
0.07580
Sample size . US$ ....................
23262753
26164715
31917000
46791267
54666331
63888455
Percent ..............
33.05
29.82
29.77
32.15
36.83
34.53
011300000000
Pork, fresh, chilled, or frozen
Hong Kong
Unit value US$/lb ........................
0.2311
0.2334
0.2418
0.2928
0.4964
0.4745
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
100.9
104.6
126.6
214.7
205.2
Current value weight ...................
0.33325
0.23860
0.19205
0.15062
0.17176
0.14370
011401000000
Chicken, fresh, chilled, or frozen
Hong Kong
Unit value US$/Ib ........................
0.2153
0.2220
0.2338
0.2997
0.4083
0.3927
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
103.1
108.6
139.2
189.6
182.3
Current Value weight ..................
0.14449
0.12426
0.14529
0.13590
0.19387
0.15774
011410000000
Fowls, killed or dressed, fresh, chilled, or frozen (O.T. poultry or turkey)
Japan
0.7776
1.0075
1.2080
1.0267
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
100.5
116.9
151.5
181.7
154.4
Current value weight ...................
0.04127
0.10932
0.15006
0.15848
0.11137
0.09486
* A complete listing of the 528 export commodities included in the sample is available upon request.
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79BO
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
Aggregate Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Imports, Excluding Sugar and
Oilseeds
Paasche price indexes (1970=100)
Imports ................................,............
100.0
92.4
92.8
120.2
162.3
189.1
Sectors of origin
Agriculture ................................
100.0
111.9
118.2
155.8
287.8
270.5
Extraction .................................
100.0
75.5
76.3
141.9
215.4
141.9
Manufacturing ..........................
100.0
89.1
86.6
107.1
158.8
181.5
End use
Foodstuffs .................................
100.0
111.4
113.6
175.3
291.7
286.0
Industrial supplies ...................
100.0
88.8
87.5
107.2
168.4
174.0
Capital goods ...........................
100.0
95.2
98.4
134.6
165.5
201.8
Consumer goods ......................
100.0
94.7
124.1
148.8
153.1
204.4
Current value weights
Imports .............................................
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
Sectors of origin
Agriculture ................................
0.22154
0.21767
0.27392
0.29933
0.26472
0.14988
Extraction ..................................
0.05188
0.05192
0.04617
0.06299
0.03888
0.03380
Manufacturing ..........................
0.72657
0.73040
0.67989
0.63767
0.69639
0.81631
End use
Foodstuffs .................................
0.16551
0.13269
0.16608
0.19077
0.19231
0.09664
Industrial supplies .....................
0.65450
0.67751
0.67589
0.64608
0.55457
0.59998
Capital goods ............................
0.17210
0.18111
0.14933
0.15367
0.24533
0.29745
Consumer goods .......................
0.00787
0.00867
0.00869
0.00946
0.00777
0.00591
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Imports, Excluding Sugar and
Oilseeds, at the Two-Digit Level of the Standard International Trade Classification
SITC
Classification
04
Cereals
Index ....................................
100.0
111.4
113.6
175.3
291.7
286.0
Weight .................................
0.16551
0.13269
0.16608
0.19077
0.19231
0.09664
23A Crude rubber, natural
Index ....................................
100.0
72.0
72.9
147.7
206.3
136.0
Weight .................................
0.04127
0.03651
0.03313
0.04664
0.02890
0.02197
23B
Crude rubber, synthetic
Index ....................................
100.0
85.5
86.4
123.7
230.7
219.6
Weight .................................
0.00403
0.00374
0.00321
0.00153
0.00162
0.00169
25
Wood pulp
Index ....................................
100.0
86.8
78.5
104.0
189.0
263.3
Weight .................................
0.00544
0.01540
0.01467
0.00806
0.00529
0.00845
26A Textile fibers, natural
Index ....................................
100.0
113.8
130.2
132.2
288.6
271,9
Weight .................................
0.05211
0.07696
0.09753
0.09772
0.06746
0.04647
26B
Textile fibers, synthetic
Index ....................................
100.0
82.4
80.6
113.8
201.5
128.6
Weight .................................
0.00741
0.00706
0.01126
0.00964
0.01786
0.01605
27
Crude minerals and fertilizers
Index ....................................
100.0
101.7
112.4
122.9
563.1
595.0
Weight .................................
0.00590
0.00622
0.00709
0.00580
0.00280
0.00253
28
Metalliferous ores and scrap
metal
Index ....................................
100.0
77.0
68.0
130.2
202.8
128.4
Weight .................................
0.00470
0.00918
0.00594
0.01054
0.00717
0.00929
29
Crude animal and vegetable
material
Index ....................................
100.0
87.2
95.1
414.0
345.1
143.3
Weight, . ...............................
0.00153
0.00083
0.00054
0.00156
0.00036
0.00169
41
Animal oils and fats
Index ....................................
100.0
103.9
68.0
145.7
233.5
202.5
Weight .................................
0.00071
0.00208
0.00167
0.00239
0.00371
0.00253
42
Vegetable oils and fats
Index ....................................
100.0
106.0
106.3
92.8
89.6
121.8
Weight ..................................
0.00165
0.00509
0.00808
0.00687
0.00085
0.00253
51
Chemical elements and com-
pounds
Index ....................................
100.0
88.9
92.1
124.4
262.4
287.1
Weight .................................
0.04986
0.05873
0.05065
0.02979
0.03100
0.04225
52
Mineral tars
Index ....................................
100.0
94.4
96.7
153.6
301.0
232.5
Weight .................................
0.00222
0.00249
0.00238
0.00175
0.00084
0.00253
53
Dyeing materials
Index ....................................
100.0
100.4
124.9
145.9
176.0
235.9
Weight .................................
0.00717
0.00606
0.00847
0.00787
0.00514
0.00422
Approved For -Release 200 /03/22: IA- -
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for
Oilseeds, at the Two-Digit Level of the Standard
(Continued)
PRC Imports, Excluding Sugar and
International Trade Classification
SITC
Classification
1970
54
Medicinal products
Index ....................................
100.0
101.2
133.6
189.0
293.7
413.1
Weight .................................
0.00129
0.00146
0.00167
0.00109
0.00051
0.00169
55B
Perfumery and soap
Index ....................................
100.0
102.1
105.0
133.5
161.0
208.4
Weight .................................
0.00097
0,00209
0.00207
0.00188
0.00132
0.00084
56
Fertilizers, manufactured
Index ....................................
100.0
91.2
92.5
126.0
196.7
378.7
Weight .................................
0.08245
0.08154
0.07368
0.04898
0.03409
0.06084
58
Plastic materials
Index ....................................
100.0
78.0
77.6
116.5
238.7
145.7
Weight .................................
0.01701
0.01240
0.01897
0.01343
0.02243
0.01183
59
Chemicals, n.e.s
Index ....................................
100.0
144.6
45.6
113.2
82.4
172.5
Weight .................................
0.00889
0.00996
0.00954
0.00703
0.00336
0.00422
62
Rubber manufactures
Index ....................................
100.0
86.4
88.4
115.7
76.9
175.4
Weight .................................
0.00129
0.00027
0.00074
0.00029
0.00041
0.00084
64
Paper and paperboard
Index ....................................
100.0
83.1
91.7
133.9
242.2
262.7
Weight .................................
0.00815
0.00573
0.01160
0.00926
0.01744
0.01267
65A
Textile yarn and fabrics
Index ....................................
100.0
91.8
91.6
122.1
183.7
162.3
Weight .................................
0.02370
0.02218
0.02517
0.01759
0.03059
0.01352
66
Nonmetallic mineral manu-
factures
Index ....................................
100.0
91.4
61.1
69.2
80.5
86.0
Weight .................................
0.01343
0.00984
0.00701
0.00434
0.00154
0.00253
67
Iron and steel
Index ....................................
100.0
93.2
94.4
121.3
169.5
193.3
Weight .................................
0.22147
0.26622
0.24088
0.24289
0.21400
0.23914
68
Nonferrous metals
Index ....................................
100.0
49.5
43.6
49.2
68.5
81.5
Weight .................................
0.08590
0.03366
0.03796
0.06897
0.04709
0.07182
69A
Metal manufactures: indus-
trial
Index ....................................
100.0
94.9
97.1
131.6
182.9
196.2
Weight .................................
0.00808
0.00528
0.00561
0.00304
0.01053
0.02028
69B
Metal manufactures: hand
tools
Index ....................................
100.0
80.8
84.4
96.2
138.2
174.8
Weight .................................
0.00292
0.00217
0.00195
0.00152
0.00429
0.00084
71
Nonelectric machinery
Index ....................................
100.0
99.1
110.4
125.9
162.1
213.3
Weight .................................
0.07938
0.09854
0.06498
0.05511
0.09919
0.15295
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
Paasche Price Indexes and Current Value Weights for PRC Imports, Excluding Sugar and
Oilseeds, at the Two-Digit Level of the Standard International Trade Classification
(Continued)
SITC
Classification
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
72
Electric machinery
Index ....................................
100.0
101.9
82.1
136.6
176.0
198.1
Weight .................................
0.01007
0.00826
0.01310
0.01318
0.01817
0.03042
73
Transport equipment
Index ....................................
100.0
90.4
91.4
141.0
167.0
185.6
Weight .................................
0.07132
0.06795
0.06460
0.07856
0.11822
0.10647
86A Precision instruments
Index ....................................
100.0
86.7
115.6
154.6
194.3
272.2
Weight .................................
0.00839
0.00416
0.00467
0.00527
0.00544
0.00676
86B
Watches and clocks
Index ....................................
100.0
65.4
180.3
166.3
171.8
165.5
Weight .................................
0.00350
0.00312
0.00350
0.00500
0.00343
0.00253
89
Miscellaneous manufactures
Index ....................................
100.0
101.6
78.6
108.9
120.0
154.1
Weight .................................
0.00210
0.00198
0.00144
0.00147
0.00249
0.00084
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
A Sample of the Commodities Included in the Import Price Index*
Commodity No.
Origin
Description
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
04-Cereals
Sample size US$ ...................... 256294523
196837057
286044042
654815590
974244132
523671222
Percent ................ 100.00
100.00
100.00
99.99
100.00
91.57
041006164690
Red spring wheat, except seed
Canada
Unit value US$/cwt .....................
2.6206
2.8652
2.8335
3.5669
8.7218
7.1209
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
109.3
108.1
136.1
332.8
271.7
Current value weight ...................
0.44510
0.87088
0.71084
0.27796
0.34333
0.55875
041900000000
Wheat, unmilled, O.T. Canadian red spring wheat, imported from Australia, Argentina, Canada, France, and the
Other
United States
Unit value US$/mt .......................
47.6105
62.1805
61.5416
94.0873
138.6891
147.1932
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
130.6
129.2
197.6
291.2
309.1
Current value weight ...................
0.55251
0.9704
0.20615
0.50294
0.49263
0.41477
044000000000
Corn, unmilled, imported from Argentina and the United States
Other
Unit value US$/mt .......................
48.0920
58.9911
63.1352
94.4446
111.8406
130.0000
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
122.6
131.2
196.3
232.5
270.3
Current value weight ...................
0.00238
0.03207
0.08299
0.21909
0.16402
0.02646
23A-Crude rubber, natural
Sample size US$ ......................
19146831
13278446
15634127
27708873
28971665
24903768
Percent ................
29.95
24
51
27
39
17
30
19
78
19
15
.
.
.
.
.
231101000000A
Rubber, ribbed, smoked, sheet
Singapore
Unit value US$/mt .......................
426.1290
307.2292
310.8176
629.7471
879.2614
579.8181
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
72.0
72.9
147.7
206.3
136.0
Current value weight ...................
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
1.00000
23B-Crude rubber, synthetic
Sample size
US$ ......................
6238343
5461917
3759090
4758156
7919808
8179189
Percent ................
99.76
98
44
67
91
90
28
96
21
81
79
.
.
.
.
.
231220000000B
Styrene-butadiene rubber
an
Ja
p
Unit value US$/kg .......................
0.2369
0.2028
0.2097
0.3073
0.6565
0.4576
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
85.6
88.5
129.7
277.1
193.1
Current value weight ...................
0.53494
0.61992
0.56561
0.28745
0.58337
0.56163
231230000000B
Synthetic rubber, n.e.s. (O.T. latex)
Ja
an
p
Unit value US$/kg .......................
0.3535
0.2922
0.2857
0.4547
0.7334
0.9417
Unit value index ...........................
100.0
82.6
80.8
128.6
207.4
266.3
Current value weight ...................
0.46505
0.38007
0.43438
0.71254
0.41662
0.43836
Sample size
US$ ......................
1642117
6070992
2700947
9163081
4586887
2505416
Percent ................
19.47
26.56
10.68
33.08
17.10
5.01
*A complete listing of the 192 import commodities included in the sample is available upon request.
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STATINTL
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Rm. 30, Ft. Leslie J. McNair, Washington, D. C. 20319
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Department of the Treasury, Office of Intelligence Support
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for Embassies in Brussels(2 cys--1 cy for Ralph Moore,
US Mission to NATO), London, Paris, Bonn, Munich,
Rome, Canberra, Wellington, Peking, Hong Kong (13 cys--
1-Mr. Cross, 10-Economic Section, 1-Treasury Rep.,
1-Agriculture Attache), Tokyo, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur,
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Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress,
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1 Mr. Gregory Diercks, EPD, National Defense Univ.,
Ft. Leslie J. McNair, Washington, D.C. 20319,
STOP 315
Total: 1100 copies
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 Approved Fo gIrpff~aqqVQ3124~pikf D1j B8p#?7A000700060001-0
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Distribution Section, P&PD/OL
FROM: Chief, Registry and Dissemination Branch, PPG
SUBJECT: Dissemination of,OER Report, ER 77-10477,
(Job 425-1051-77), China: Real Trends in
Trade with Non-Communist Countries,
UNCLASSIFIED
STATINTL
Attached is the dissemination list for subject report.
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semi
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(contin -to d)
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7 National Security Agency, Attn:
Room 2E024, Ft. Meade, Md.
STATINTL
1 National Defense University, Attn: Classified Library,
Rm. 30, Ft. Leslie J. McNair, Washington, D. C. 20319
1 Mr. John D. Pafenberg, INA, Department of the Air Force,
Room 4A882, Pentagon
31 Defense Intelligence, Agency, RDS-3C, A Bldg. , AHS
Department of the Treasury, Office of Intelligence Support
Dolores A. O'Dell, Rm. 4326, 15th St. & Pa. Ave. , N. W.
44 Department of State, INR/ CC, Room 6510, New State Bldg.
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for Embassies in Brussels(2 cys--1 cy for Ralph Moore,
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Rome, Canberra, Wellington, Peking, Hong Kong (13 cys--
1-Mr. Cross, 10-Economic Section, 1-Treasury Rep.,
1-Agriculture Attache), Tokyo, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur,
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12 Department of Commerce, Control Intelligence Section,
Rm 1617M, Main Commerce Bldg. (for William W. Clarke,
Dir.,PRC Affairs, Bureau of E-W Trade)
1 Agency Archives
173 Agency Records Center
2 Prod. Manager/P&PD/OL, Rm. 154, P&P for FDLP
300 Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project, Exchange & Gift
Div., Rm A-20161, Library of Congress STOP 303
10 Mr. Merwin Phelps, Chief, Library Services Div,
Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress,
Washington, D.C. 20540 STOP 303
1 Mr. Gregory Diercks, EPD, National Defense Univ.,
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Total: 1100 copies
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Mozambique, Lourenco Marques
Niger, Niamey
Nigeria, Lagos
Rhodesia, Salisbury
Rawanda, Kigali
Senegal, Dakar
Sierra Leone, Free Town
Somalia, Mogadiscio
South Africa, Pretoria
Sudan, Khartoum
Swaziland, Mbabane
Tanzania, Dar es Salaam
Togo, Lome
Tunisia, Tunis
Uganda, Kampala
Upper Volta, Ouagadougou
Zambia, Lusaka
NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan, Kabul
Bangladesh, Dacca
Ceylon, Colombo
Cyprus, Nicosia
.Egypt, Cairo
Greece, Athens
India, New Delhi
Iran, Tehran
Iraq, Baghdad
Israel, Tel Aviv
Jordan, Amman
Kuwait, Kuwait
Lebanon, Beirut
Nepal, Katmandu
Pakistan, Islamabad
Qatar, Doha
Saudi Arabia, Jidda
South Yemen, Aden
Syria, Damascus
Turkey, Ankara
UAE, Abu Dhabi
Argentina, Buenos Aires
Bahamas, Nassau.
Barbados, Bridgetown
Bolivia, La Paz
Brazil, Rio de Janeiro
Chile, Santiago
Colombia, Bogota
Costa Rica, San Jose
Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo
Ecuador, Quito
El Salvador, San Salvador
Guatemala, Guatemala
Guyana, Georgetown
Haiti, Port au Prince
Honduras, Tegucigalpa
Jamaica, Kingston
Mexico, Mexico City
Nicaragua, Managua
Panama, Panama
Paraguay, Asuncion
Peru, Lima
Trinidad, Port of Spain
Uruguay, Montevideo
Venezuela, Caracas
 Approved For Release 2d'61!63/2.2 .: CIS` R
1 ) 7- o'4/-) -)
7A000700060004-0
MEMORANDUM FOR: Associate Deputy Director for
Intelligence
SUBJECT Request to Publish an Unclassified
Report
Approval is requested to publish the attached
unclassified report, PRC: Real Trends in Trade with
Non-Communist Countries. It is original basic research
that will be of considerable interest for the insights
it gives into China's trade in constant prices. There
is nothing sensitive about the work.
MAURICE C. ERNST
Director
Economic Research
STATINTL
STATINTL
Attachment:
As stated
APPROVED (Signed) DATE 7 -7
DISAPPROVED DATE
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee
1 - ADDI
1 - OD/ER
1 - D/C
OER/D/C/ esr/5684 (29 July 77)
-3T
M ., lI" W ~. ~Y YLr
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 0 S'Et;RET 0
'Approved For Release 20p1j
USE OF INFORMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared.by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black)__x_1724 red .
7-1141 V 10.1 VI- J1 ~411-1 l ":-
-1 ;) f/l ./+ 7 ' 1.1 DIA Y Y R
17
PUBLICATION TITLE
C
r; :I
LA/
C ARD'2 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX.;
i t I -1 1 9 14 .
I TT K)Q rr 2nn K(Q 11
18 19
12O
CLASSIFICATION:
TOPICAL CATEGORY
(XXXXXXXXXXXXX)(XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX..XXXi
DATE PUDLISHED PUBLICATION NUMBER FOR CRG ONLY
CIB PUBLICATION DAIF
(9-121 (13-23) (13-18)
02 OER 04 OGCR-- ---~
03 OSR {I 1 00 OCR
07 051
08 owl
60 STATE
Internal Politics
Internntiarial Relations
Economics
Military
Science & Technology
Geog,atihy
(3iogrnphy
JOINT OFFICE (,spccif S):
DOCUMENT TYPE 15-181
1 4
41 4 1 $1 D
IOD
CLASSIFICATION CONTROLS:
53 E: W
50 SURVEYOR
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
USSR
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
China
Other For East
Near East.`N. Africa
South Asia
Africa
Latin America
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 25X1 B
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 A000700060001-0
REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THI
ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITE
ADVANCE COPY
CTION UI
ooi~
T 359,004 cI A522
IN 9/1816
8 9 2X1 C
D:FERRED TELE
TOR1211802E NOV 77
C N F I D E N T I A L 211625E NOV 77 DEFERRED TELE-POUCH
25X1A CITE - 891,7
'c ~ ASHIN;;TCN,
FC 0ER/rLCO INFO NFAC/CS
F R,+v: NFAC REP
Ar6A__A__.%1_1
G 2 71 -~v -A-77
SUBJECT: RECUECT FOR UNCLASSIFIED RESEARCH PAPER ON CHINA
PLEASE PCUCH 12 COPIES OF THE UNCLASSIFIED DER RESEARCH
PAPER, "CHINA= REAL TRENDS IN TRADE WITH NON-COMMUNIST
COUNTRIES SINCE 1970" (OCTOBER 1977), THE PAPER WILL BE
VALUAELE
WE ANTICIPATE REQUESTS FOR THE PAPER SINCE
25X1 C
25X1A
C O N F I D E N T I A L
25X1 C
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 Di str? pprQ e4c. 1orER,ej i Rte ,/2' ra LA gX-914W M00WQ)1,`9
Dr. John.Aird
Foreign Demographic Analysis Div.
24 M Annex, Room 406
Department of Commerce
Washington, D.C. 20230
STOP # 206 STATINTL.
Mr. Jack Aubert (4 copies)
EA/PRCM Room 4318A
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
STOP # 27
STATINTL STATINTL
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 STATINTL
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STATINTL
Mr..William M.' Clark
Director of PRC Affairs
Bureau of East-West Trade
Department of Commerce
Washington, D.C.
STOP # 206
STATINTL
Mr. Paul H. B. Godwin
Department of the Air Force
Headquarters 3825
Academic Services Group (AU)
Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama
INTL
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 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A00070006.0001-0
Mr. Richard Kaufman. STATINTL
Joint Economic Committee
Dirksen Senate Office Bldg. G-133
Washington.,D.C. 20510 - STOP# 301
(VIA: Office of Legislative
Counsel,,. 7D35, Hqs) (Do not send
covering letter
Mr. Herbert Horrowitz
INR/REA, Room 8840
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
STOP # 27
STATINTL
STATINTL STATINTL
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STATINTL
Dr. Charles Liu
FDOD/ERS/Room 312
Department of Agriculture
500 12th St.
S.W.
Washington,
D.C. 20250
STOP #
209
Dr. Leo Orleans
Reference Department
Library of Congress
Washington, D. C. 2054TATINTL
STOP # 303
Dr. Michel Oksenberq
National Security Council
Room 373, Old Executive Office Bldg.
Washington, D.C. 20506
STOP # 28
STATINTL
STATINTL
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 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
Mr. William F. Rope
INR/REA/NA
Room 8840
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20521
STATINTL STOP # 27
STATINTL
STATINTL
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 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700.060001-0
US International Trade Commission
Library
Attn: Ms. Dorothy J. Berkowitz,
Librarian STATINTL
701 E.Street N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20436.
STOP # 226
STATINTL
STATINTL
Mr. David Laux (send 4 cys)
Room 3520, Main Commerce
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Washington, D.C.
STOP # 206
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 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700060001-0
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
STATINTL TELEPHONE CALL FROM
NFAC, CS
STATINTL HAS REQUEST FROM REQUESTING COPY OF t '4C'
ER 77-10477, CHINA: REAL TRENDS IN TRADE WITH
NON-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES, UNCLASSIFIED, BE CLEARED FOR
STATINTL
STATINTL
STATINTL
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 RECORD OF REVIEW OF OER PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURITY/SANITIZATION APPROVAL
SUBJECT
C
SECURITY REVIEW SANITIZIIG INSTRUCTIONS
ITEM DATE INITIALS REMOVE
UNEDITED DRAFT
STATINTL
EDITED DRAFT
DELETE
STATINTL
SUBSTITUTE
REMARKS
0" 2358 E OBSOLETE D I TT I ONS PREVIOUS
2-77
A IN - I R ONLY
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
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