ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 43
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 17, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

National Iecr t
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Assessment
Center
Economic Intelligence
Weekly Review
ER EIW 77-046
Copy 1 597
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Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION.
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
NOCONTRACT- Not Releasable to Contractors or
Contractor/ Consultants
PROPIN- Caution-Proprietary Information Involved
NFIBONLY- NFIB Departments Only
ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
REL... - This Information has been Authorized for
Release to ...
Classified by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
I5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
data impossible to determine
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SECRET
NOFORN-NOCONTRACT
Current Survey
Major Recent Developments Affecting
the International Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Growth in the Less Developed Countries Slows in 1977 . . . . . . . . . .
Real economic growth rates in the Third World are dropping off from the
high rates of 1976, with the most pronounced fall in the OPEC countries.
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Rice: Stronger Demand for US Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Reduced supplies by other exporters and a strong commercial (non-PL
480) market bode well for US sales.
Greece: Medium-Term Decisions Face New Government . . . . . . . . 15
While few immediate economic problems confront the Caramanlis govern-
ment, it must encourage industrial investment, lean against inflation, and
prepare for ultimate entry into the EC.
Grain Market Reacts Calmly to Soviet Crop Announcement . . . . 18
Publication of Interest
Statistics
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SECRET
NOFORN-NOCONTRACT
Current Survey
MAJOR RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
Note: This Survey reviews the recent foreign economic developments that have
significant implications for the growth and stability of the international economy. In
particular, it summarizes the likely impact of new macro-economic policy decisions of
important countries and the latest evidence of economic trends. We expect to publish
a similar survey every month.
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The new programs, summarized above, reflect widespread continued economic
stagnation. Industrial output in the six major foreign economies held practically
constant in August, after declining in three of the four previous months; August
production was more than 3 percent below early 1977 levels. Only Japan, among the
six, showed an increase in output in August. At the other extreme, Italian industrial
production fell 3.5 percent in August. Output in West Germany, France, the United
Kingdom, and Canada continued flat. (Unclassified)
Consumer prices in the six economies rose at about a 7.5-percent annual rate in
September, slightly slower than the pace of inflation in first half 1977. Britain and
Italy have demonstrated marked progress in their battles against rising prices, both
countries cutting their rate of inflation in the third quarter to less than 12 percent.
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West Germany, after experiencing a slight acceleration in inflation in early 1977, has
seen its rate return to less than 4 percent. (Unclassified)
The United Kingdom and Italy continue to show improvement in their trade
balances. Britain posted surpluses in both August and September; Italy had surpluses
in June through September. Japan's September surplus of $1.3 billion remains
sizable, although down from the level of the second quarter. (Unclassified)
Articles
GROWTH IN THE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
SLOWS IN 1977
After the solid gains in GNP of 1976, Third World countries are experiencing a
moderate drop in growth rates in 1977. The sharpest slowdown has come in the
OPEC countries, where increases in real GNP will fall from 13 percent in 1976 to 8
Real GNP Growth
1975 1977
(estimate)
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percent this year.* Non-OPEC LDCs should turn in an overall rate of real growth
slightly less than 5 percent instead of last year's 5.1 percent.
The decline in the growth of non-OPEC LDCs as a group is heavily weighted by
(a) slower rates in Brazil and Mexico, where adjustment to earlier debt and inflation
problems required contractionary policies; and (b) somewhat slower growth in
several of the export-oriented economies of Southeast Asia, which are closely linked
to OECD business trends. Partially offsetting these trends are agricultural gains in
South Asia.
Regional Performance Shows Considerable Variation
On a regional basis, the Middle East is still experiencing the highest average
growth-10 percent-as oil producers sponsor massive economic development
programs. Growth in this region will not match last year's, however, because OPEC
governments are spending their oil earnings more carefully or are lifting less oil. The
Asian LDCs continue to grow by more than 6 percent, with this weighted average
balancing some slowdown in East Asian exporter nations and certain South Asian
economies against a good year for India. Surprisingly, the African countries as a
group are outperforming Latin America. While the average for the former
approaches 6 percent, Latin American countries-still grappling in several cases with
domestic stabilization problems-are averaging just over 4 percent.
Exports Spur Growth
Faltering growth in the OECD countries notwithstanding, those LDCs most
dependent on trade with the developed countries are still at the high end of the
growth scale because of buoyant exports. The East Asian exporters, after a
spectacular recovery last year from the 1974-75 slump, have settled down to growth
rates ranging from 10 percent for South Korea and Malaysia to 6.5 percent for the
Philippines and Thailand.
Latin American and African coffee producers are benefiting from high export
prices; many of them-Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, the Ivory
Coast, and Nicaragua-are beating their trend GNP growth rates for 1960-73. High
export earnings and strong large-scale industrial output in Colombia will more than
offset the slump in agricultural production (other than coffee) and small industry. In
the Ivory Coast, robust earnings from cocoa and timber are giving added impetus to
GNP growth.
*Overall, regional, and group averages are weighted by 1976 GNP. The sample used in calculating the average
growth rate includes 67 countries representing 97 percent of Third World output.
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LDCs: Projected 1977 Growth Rates
(1976 Growth Rates in Parentheses)
Kuwait (6.0)
Algeria (6.0)
Afghanistan (2.7)
Lebanon (-50.0)
Argentina (-2.9)
Bahamas (4.8)
North Yemen (30,0)
Brazil (8.7)
Barbados (6.2)
Qatar (14.0)
Cameroon (5.0)
Burma (4.5)
United Arab Emirates (14.0)
Chile (5.5)
Surinam (0)
Costa Rica (5.0)
Uruguay (2.8)
Dominican Republic (5.5)
Zambia (0.9)
Egypt (6.0)
Bolivia (7.0)
Haiti (4.7)
Colombia (7.0)
India (2.0)
Ecuador (8.7)
Iran (13.8)
Ghana (2.0)
El Salvador (6.1)
Kenya (5.0)
Guyana (-13.0)
Grenada (12.9)
Libya (12.0)
Jamaica (-6.9)
Guatemala (7.5)
Oman (3.0)
Mexico (2.1)
Honduras (6.5)
Papua New Guinea (0)
Morocco (1.2)
Hong Kong (16.0)
Philippines (6.3)
Nepal (3.0)
Indonesia (6.5)
Saudi Arabia (20.0)
Pakistan (4.9)
Iraq (15.0)
Senegal (1.5)
Panama (0)
Ivory Coast (8.5)
Sri Lanka (2.5)
Peru (2.8)
Jordan (15.0)
Sudan (5.5)
Rhodesia (-3.4)
Malaysia (11.3)
Syria (8.0)
Zaire (-1.4)
Nicaragua (6.2)
Thailand (6.2)
Nigeria (6.5)
Trinidad and Tobago (4.8)
Paraguay (6.9)
Tunisia (10.0)
Singapore (8.0)
Venezuela (6.0)
South Korea (15.5)
Taiwan (11.7)
Stabilization Programs Temporarily Brake Growth
Some key countries-in an effort to deal with inflation, trade deficits, and
foreign debt-have instituted financial policies that are temporarily limiting growth.
In Brazil, both a tight monetary policy and import curbs are holding growth under
the 8-percent long-term average. Despite constraints on demand, import
substitution, strong export demand, good crops, and moderate investment spending
are together yielding a 4- to 5-percent growth compared with the 3 percent
anticipated earlier this year. Mexico, farther along in its adjustment process, still
faces bleak growth prospects for the year as a whole because private investment and
consumer spending are only now beginning to recover. Real growth will likely stand
at 1 to 2 percent, roughly the same as last year.
For a few other countries, the sharp deterioration that followed the 1973/74
oil crisis has been reinforced by continuing problems in export markets. In Jamaica,
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Peru, and Zaire, this has meant a more wrenching adjustment than we see in Mexico
and Brazil. Growing foreign debt, weakening debt service capability, and the slowing
of capital inflows have meant that these smaller countries have had to take sharp
measures (often under IMF guidance) to constrain consumer spending and control
inflation. Jamaica's GNP will likely fall 4 percent as a result of prior import cuts,
higher taxes, and the restriction of private credit. Import constraints and the
slowdown in the domestic economy have hampered the easing of inflation and
contributed to higher unemployment. Peru, which belatedly accepted IMF pressures
to tighten austerity, faces price gains of about 45 percent and practically no change
in GNP. Zaire is squeezing out 1-percent GNP growth only because the government
at the outset implemented the IMF program less strictly than Jamaica and Peru.
Both budget expenditures and money wages have been allowed to rise faster than
recommended by the IMF.
Chile has also been hurt by falling copper prices, but its economy is clearly on
the mend. Many of Chile's domestic economic problems were severely intensified by
the extreme expansionary policies of the Allende government. To compensate, the
military junta implemented austerity measures soon after the 1973 coup. The
government has been able to make inroads against both inflation and the financial
gap and to cautiously loosen its grip on the economy. The result will probably be a
6-percent gain in GNP, up slightly from last year.
Domestic Factors at Play
Production for domestic markets has been the most important factor affecting
growth in the South Asian countries. Good crops will enable India and Sri Lanka to
show real growth of about 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively. In Pakistan, slightly
higher agricultural output has been almost entirely offset by sluggish investment and
export performance, largely the result of political uncertainty. Growth this year will
be just over 1 percent.
Growth Subsides in OPEC Countries
The falloff in OPEC overall growth stems in some instances from more rational
development spending and in others from lower oil production. In Iran declines in
oil output, infrastructure bottlenecks, and continuing shortages of skilled labor
outside the oil sector will limit 1977 GNP growth to 6 percent, compared with
nearly 14 percent in 1976. In Saudi Arabia, where the oil sector accounts for about
80 percent of output, real growth will subside from 20 percent to less than 7 percent
because of a sharp drop in the rate of increase of oil output. Despite a leveling off of
production, Venezuelan oil earnings will allow a moderate rise in public investment
to support a 6-percent growth rate.
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Elsewhere, growth rates for the oil producers are expected to pick up. Volume
increases in both oil and non-oil exports will help to boost Indonesia's output 7
percent. Nigeria, hitting stride in its oil-financed development programs, may register
double-digit growth. In a few smaller Middle Eastern states, improvements in port
facilities and growing public spending will help maintain the rapid growth pace of
recent years; for example, Kuwait's GNP should soar another 27 percent in 1977
and the United Arab Emirates will gain 20 percent.
LDC growth in 1978 is extremely difficult to project at this point. Working in
favor of rates near or above trend is an accumulation of foreign exchange reserves,
which are at record levels in most LDCs. If,as expected, domestic pressures to draw
on these reserves increase, the resulting pickup in imports should spur output
moderately. Gains under stabilization programs, especially in the Latin American
countries, could also permit some acceleration of growth as austerity is relaxed.
Despite these positive factors, continued slow recovery in the major industrial
countries will keep a lid on LDC ability to substantially improve on 1977 growth.
(Confidential)
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RICE: STRONGER DEMAND FOR US EXPORTS
US rice exports could reach a record level in 1978 despite predictions for a
drop in world imports. Reduced supplies by other exporters and a strong
commercial non-PL 480 market should keep rice prices firm.
World Production and Stocks
Rice production for the 1977/78 crop year is currently estimated by the US
Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 351 million tons, or 2 percent higher than last
year.* We believe that world production could approximate the 1975/76 record of
355 million tons, based on recent information suggesting above-average Asian crops.
*Rice production figures are on an unmilled basis. All other data are on a milled basis. The rice crop year is 1
August - 31 July.
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Generally favorable weather
in Asia is accounting for most of
the increase expected in world
production. Output in Japan and
India, where the bulk of the
1977/78 crop has been harvested,
is up by 10 percent. Production
should be up slightly in the Philip-
pines, South Korea, Burma, and
Bangladesh. China's harvest almost
certainly will show a small in-
crease despite a drought last sum-
mer. Production in Laos and Thai-
land is likely to be well below last
year due to drought. Other Asian
countries are expected to produce
at about the same level as in
1976/77.
Low prices have forced acre-
age reductions in the United
States-production is down 15
percent-and in Brazil. In Colom-
bia, where a government-
sponsored development program
World Rice Production '
Million Tons
1975/76
1976/77'
1977/78
Total ....................................... .-..
355.0
342.8
353.0
Argentina ..............................
0.3
0.3
0.3
Australia ................................
0.4
0.5
0.5
Bangladesh
19.2
17.7
18.0
Brazil ......................................
8.5
7.2
7.5
Burma ...................................
9.2
9:3
9.5
Colombia ................................
1.6
1.5
1.3
India ........................................
74.3
65.3
72.0
Indonesia ...............................
22.3
23.3
22.6
Italy .......................................
0.9
0.9
0.8
Japan ......................................
16.5
14.7
16.2
Korea, Republic of ................
6.5
7.2
7.3
Laos .......................................
0.9
0.9
0.5
Pakistan ..................................
3.9
3.9
4.0
Philippines ............................
6.2
6.5
6.8
P R C ........................................
126.0
125.0
128.0
Sri Lanka ................................
1.3
1.5
1.5
Thailand ................................
15.2
15.8
15.0
United States ..........................
5.8
5.3
4.5
USSR ......................................
2.0
2.1
2.2
Vietnam ..................................
12.6
12.4
12.4
Others .........
21.4
21.5
22.1
' Rice production is on an unmilled basis.
2 Preliminary.
' CIA Estimated.
had pushed rice production ahead rapidly, low producer prices are now causing
output to decline. Inclement harvest weather has caused a 11-percent drop in Italy's
crop. Production in most other countries is expected to regain ground lost in
1976/77. On balance, production outside Asia will show little change from the last
crop year.
Increased demand and reduced production had caused world rice stocks to
decline in 1976/77. The United States and Japan, which increased stocks to record
levels, were exceptions. While total stocks are expected to increase slightly in
1977/78, they will decrease in major exporting countries. Most of the increase will
occur in Japan, where 4.5 million tons of rice will have accumulated by yearend
1977.
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Consumption and Trade Patterns
World consumption of milled rice in 1977/78 is expected to increase 2 percent,
to a record 237 million tons. Population growth largely accounts for the increase. In
addition, a growing commercial market for rice has developed in the Middle Eastern
US Share of World Rice Exports'
million tons
1971 1972 1973 1974
1. Data are on a milled basis,
1976 1977 1978
(Estimate) (Projected)
OPEC countries, where imports have risen almost 50 percent since 1973. Per capita
consumption is also increasing in some African countries, especially Nigeria and the
Ivory Coast.
World trade in rice historically has been 7 million to 8 million tons annually.
We estimate that rice trade in calendar year 1977 will reach a record 8.9 million
tons. This level reflects the growing market in the Middle East and Africa as well as
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increased demand in Asia following a slump in output in 1976/77. World trade in
1978 is expected to decline to 8.2 million tons, largely on the strength of increased
production in some Asian rice-importing countries.
While forecasts indicate an excellent rice harvest worldwide, some areas in Asia
face problems. Drought in Vietnam and Laos has resulted in the need for increased
food imports. Most of these needs will have to be met through food aid or
concessional sales. Indonesian crop prospects are fair but drought in some local
producing areas has led to regional deficits. The government has been forced to
purchase several hundred thousand tons of rice for immediate delivery to afflicted
areas. Indonesia has contracted to import a total of 2.5 million tons of rice between
April 1977 and March 1978-1 million tons more than last year.
Other Asian producers are faced with problems of surplus. India, with a
bumper food grain harvest, has grossly inadequate storage facilities and will lose
some of its crop to spoilage. Taiwan is also faced with storage problems after three
consecutive good harvests and has encouraged the feeding of rice to livestock.
Taiwan also exported 200,000 tons of rice in 1977 to help reduce the surplus and is
expected to sell a similar amount in 1978.
Despite record accumulation of stocks, Japan is not likely to export large
amounts of rice. The domestic producer price is so high that a large subsidy would
be required to sell abroad. Indeed, Tokyo finds it less expensive to seek rice from
some of its Asian neighbors and the United States to meet its food aid commitments
rather than to use domestic rice.
US ExportProspects Improve
The outlook is for increased demand for US rice exports in 1978 despite
prospects for a reduction in world rice trade. The expected growth in commercial
transactions (as opposed to PL 480 sales) and decreased availability of rice from
other sources almost certainly will lead to record US sales of 2.3 million tons and to
a drawdown in peak US stocks.
Thailand has become the leading rice exporter in 1977, with shipments likely
to exceed 2.8 million tons. Exports could be 1.0 million tons lower in 1978 because
of low stocks and reduced production. Rice exports from Brazil will also decline
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sharply due to low stocks and mediocre output. Italian exports should be down
200,000 tons from last year. Burma and China are the only exporters that appear
capable of increasing shipments in 1978.
Strong demand for rice in commercial markets should keep prices firm through
first half 1978. Beyond the first half, export prospects and prices would be
strengthened by a return to poor weather in several Asian rice producing
countries-Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. The chances of this
happening are good, since weather has been generally favorable in these countries for
three consecutive years. (Confidential)
GREECE: MEDIUM-TERM DECISIONS FACE NEW GOVERNMENT
Few immediate economic problems face the Caramanlis government as it heads
into national elections this Sunday. The Prime Minister called for elections a year
early in order to secure a mandate for dealing with the Aegean, Cyprus, and EC
accession questions, all of which could enter decisive stages during 1978. Greek
recovery from the recession has been much stronger than elsewhere in Western
Europe. Nevertheless, lagging industrial investment threatens to stifle growth and to
increase upward pressure on prices over the next two years. The public sector plans
to undertake large-scale investments to help fill the void left by private investors,
who are awaiting the outcome of government steps to dampen inflation and to
restructure the economy in preparation for entry into the EC. Press reports and
political observers are predicting a victory for Caramanlis' New Democracy party.
The Situation Before the Election
Prime Minister Caramanlis enters this election from a position of strength.
Since the Greek recession in 1974, the government's carefully managed policies have
resulted in balanced growth with a substantial reduction in inflation. Greek GNP will
grow by 5 percent this year, a good performance next to the 3-percent growth
expected for the major West European economies; the big contributors are private
consumption, residential construction, and exports. Inflation, a rampant 27 percent
in 1974, was cut in half in 1975-76 and has eased to about 12 percent this year.
Despite higher oil costs and the resultant rise in the trade deficit, the current
account deficit has averaged a manageable $1.1 billion since 1973 because of
invisible earnings from tourism, shipping services, and worker remittances. Finally,
with unemployment at an estimated 2.5 percent, economic problems have not
translated into election issues.
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EC accession negotiations have gone well for Athens, although the Greek
timetable for concluding a treaty by 1978 may easily slip into 1979.* The EC
Council last month told Greece it is ready to begin the "active phase" of
negotiations on industrial trade, capital flows, trade relations with non-EC countries,
and arrangements for Greek coal and steel products. The EC indicated, however, it
was not prepared to begin negotiations on agriculture or the length of the transition
period. The agricultural question poses a sensitive issue for the Community,
particularly for France and Italy. The EC does not want to negotiate the issue until
the member states have decided on changes in the Common Agricultural Policy,
which they deem necessary for EC enlargement. Moreover, Paris doubtless wants to
delay talks on agriculture until after the French elections next March.
Politically, Caramanlis has defused the Aegean and Cyprus issues by holding the
elections before negotiations on these areas lead to hard bargaining and inevitable
concessions. The Prime Minister considers the Aegean boundary dispute with Turkey
the most important problem facing Greece and has conceded that Turkey has "some
rights" in the area between the Greek mainland and the Greek islands. Suspected
deposits of commercially exploitable oil also have made compromise more difficult
since both countries are heavily dependent on imported oil. On Cyprus, political
retreat from the Greek-Cypriot goal of a federated state reuniting the Greek and
Turkish sectors under one government would spell treason in the eyes of Greek
sympathizers. There has been speculation that after the election Caramanlis may
approach the main opposition leader, George Mavros of the Union of the
Democratic Center (EDIK), to form a coalition government. Such a move would be
designed to bring in talented persons from EDIK to deal with key foreign policy
issues as well as EC accession, thereby isolating the fiery Andreas Papandreou, leader
of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement.
Economic Problems Ahead for Policymakers
Although the new government will not face an economic crisis, it will have to
find solutions to the longer term problems of boosting industrial investment,
restructuring the economy for EC accession, and further curbing inflation. Of the
three, ending the investment recession is the most imperative because it affects the
other two.
Since the 1974 recession, the investment picture has been mixed. Real gross
fixed investment has increased only moderately and at the end of last year was still
20 percent below the 1973 level. Investment has been strongest in residential
construction; an influx of foreign capital has helped lift housing investment by 40
*A discussion of issues involved in Greek accession to the EC appeared in the Economic Intelligence Weekly
of 15 September 1977.
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percent since 1974. The major weak spot remains manufacturing investment;
declines of 11.5 percent and 9.7 percent occurred in 1975 and 1976, respectively.
Preparations for transition into the EC have caused private investors to hold off
spending until the new rules are specified. Major changes for the business
community include elimination of tariff and nontariff barriers on Greek imports of
industrial goods from the EC; implementation of common, lower EC tariffs against
third-country imports; and adoption of a value-added tax. Delay in advancing the
investment provisions of the new five-year plan, along with acknowledged
bureaucratic bottlenecks in the Greek Government, have also deterred investment.
Recently, cyclical factors have also contributed to the investment slowdown.
Reductions in growth forecasts for Greece's three major West European export
markets-West Germany, France, and Italy-have dimmed sales expectations.
Moreover, the government's tightening of monetary policy this year in order to curb
inflation has dampened investment spending in the short run.
In the absence of private investors, the government has stepped in. A few
months ago Prime Minister Caramanlis announced details of a $570 million
investment plan for seven industries to be completed by 1981. The program, which
features a petrochemical complex, raw material processing plants, and improvements
in communications facilities, is to encourage both import substitution and export
expansion. In addition to direct involvement, the government is considering
replacing investment tax credits with outright investment grants ranging from 10
percent to 40 percent of each investment.
Athens is also in the process of restructuring Greek financial markets in order
to stimulate investment and to increase Central Bank control over the money
supply. A major goal is to channel more savings from commercial banks into broader
financial markets for productive investment. Central Bank Govornor Zolotas
contends that short-term credit expansion by commercial banks has been excessive
and too frequently used to finance "undesirable" imports of luxury goods.
Financing longer term investments, therefore, has depended upon the Central Bank's
willingness to increase the money supply. To increase the effectiveness of financial
markets, the Central Bank has:
? Restructured interest rates in order to reactivate the bond market.
? Encouraged the Agricultural Bank to attract private deposits so that it
would become self-sufficient.
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
? Advised the government to resort to the capital market to finance the
public investment program.
? Urged firms to improve their capital structure by increasing the
proportion of equity funding.
Commercial banks are being asked to adjust their portfolio policies so that loans do
not exceed one-fifth of a firm's share capital.
The Central Bank also has moved to curb excessive credit expansion by placing
controls on foreign exchange deposits in commercial banks. Dramatic increases in
foreign exchange deposits since the Lebanese war have been a major reason why
commercial banks have exceeded their lending targets. Foreign exchange and
drachma deposits now are subject to the same regulations, which allow for only a
20-percent expansion in loans for trade and working capital. Central Bank officials
credit those regulations with cutting the growth of the money supply to 15 percent
in the year ending last August, compared with 24 percent in the previous 12 months.
The economic future looks promising. Growth in 1978 should match this year's
5 percent. The Caramanlis government has recognized the importance of bolstering
export industries, and Greece remains an attractive area for EC investment, partly
because of its nearness to the growing Arab market. Cararnanlis' political base may
be eroded as businesses accustomed to tariff protection and preferential credit
treatment are forced to adapt to EC norms. Nonetheless, the government has
considerable basic strength, and accession to the EC will further buttress the
post-1974 democratic system. (Confidential)
Grain Market Reacts Calmly to Soviet Crop Announcement
After a spurt immediately following Brezhnev's 2 November announcement of
a 194-million-ton grain harvest, prices of wheat and, to a lesser extent, corn have
resumed the slow but steady climb begun about mid-August. This low-key market
reaction stems from the following: (1) the long-held opinion of large traders that the
Soviet crop would be lower than the USDA/CIA 215-million-ton estimate; (2)
persistent rumors of already consummated large sales to the Soviets; and (3) the
existence of relatively large world supplies of exportable grain.
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-ROP79B0045
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
Some traders last September were estimating Soviet imports of at least 20
million tons-more than half from the United States-compared with the USDA
estimate of 13 million tons. Many observers believed that the Soviets had signed
contracts for most of this grain by early October. These factors contributed to a
stronger market as traders hedged their sales to the Soviets over the past six to eight
weeks. Wheat prices have strengthened more than those for corn because of a tighter
supply outlook for high protein wheats and a smaller expected increase in carryover
stocks next summer. At the time of Brezhnev's announcement, wheat and corn
prices were up 19 percent and 22 percent, respectively, from their August lows.
Since his statement, they have increased an additional 5 percent and 3 percent,
respectively. During the July-December 1973 period-following massive Soviet
purchases in 1972 and the further tightening of the world grain situation in
1973-wheat prices more than doubled. (Confidential Noforn)
Publication of Interest*
Developing Countries: Oil Potential, Policies, and Constraints
(ER 77-10583, November 1977, Secret Noforn)
This Intelligence Assessment surveys 40 individual LDCs that have oil
potential and assesses, not only the geological prospects, but also the institutional
and political constraints to increases in exploration and production.
*Copies of this publication may be ordered by callin 25X1 A
17 November 1977 SECRET
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
1. The Economic Indicators Weekly Review provides up-to-date information
on changes in the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-
Communist developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators
Weekly Review is updated from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the
results are made available to the reader weeks-or sometimes months-before receipt
of official statistical publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are revised every
few months. The most recent date of publication of source notes is 20 October 1977.
Comments and queries regarding the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are
welcomed.
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 INDUST bCl # 2/QAt%x:CIAADBM(4s-M9U93*?i 0001-6
United States
Japan
_ 1973 AVERAGE 120
West Germany
130
120
124
J tl
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974 1975 1976 1977
A-2
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
United Kingdom
Percent
Change
f
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Percent
Change
f
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlieri
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlieri
United States
SEP 77
0.4
3.6
6.1
4.9
United Kingdom
AUG 77
-0.5
0.5
0.9
-8.5
Japan
AUG 77
1.2
3.8
2.9
-2.6 =
Italy
AUG 77
-3.6
1.5
-2.0
-33.5
West Germany
SEP 77
0.9
1.8
0.9
3.4
Canada
AUG 77
0
3.9
2.7
0.3
France
AUG 77
0
3.1
0
-3.1
Approved For Release 2b02/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 UNEMPLO I r Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE
Japan
West Germany
-1.2-
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
United Kingdom
.......................... ...... ..:
Italy (quarterly)
3.8
3
A labor force survey based on new definitions of economic activity sharply raised the official estimate of Italian unemployment in first quarter 1977. Data for earlier periods thus are not comparable.
Italian data are not seasonally adjusted.
THOUSANDS OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
LATEST MONTH
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
United States
OCT 77
6,872
7,564
6,744
United Kingdom
OCT 77
1,433
Japan
JUN 77
1,190
1,120
1,050
Italy
77311
1,692
West Germany
OCT 77
1,041
1,026
1,051
Canada
SEP 77
798
France
SEP 77
1,159
941
1,150 ?
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan, Italy and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-77, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates.
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
DOMESTIC PRICE' INDEX: 1970=100
Japan
200
175
West Germany
150
125
France
225
200
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
Canada
Percent
Change
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Percent
Change
from
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
United States
OCT 77
0.7
8.5
6.9
6.9
United Kingdom
OCT 77
0.6
14.6
17.8
7.9
SEP 77
0.4
6.6
6.6
4.9
SEP 77
0.5
13.8
15.6
4.4
AUG 77
7
6
0
8
-2
3
Italy
JUL 77
0.3
15.7
14.7
5.0
SEP 77
.
10.5
.
7.6
.
6.2
SEP 77
1.1
13.2
19.2
10.6
West Germany
SEP 77
-0.1
5.1
1.6
-0.6
Canada
AUG 77
0.4
10.1
9.8
7.9
OCT 77
0.1
5.4
3.8
-0.3
SEP 77
0.6
7.5
8.4
8.0
France
SEP 77
0.6
8.2
6.1
5.4
SEP 77
0.9
9.0
9.6
9.5
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 Approved or a
A--RBP79M
GNP'
RETAIL SALES
Constant Market Prices
Constant Prices
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rote
Since
Annual
Growth - Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous 1 Year
Previous
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier
Quarter
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
United States 77 III
0.9 3.2 4.6
3.8
United States
Sep 77
-1.4
2.9
4.2
-0.6
Japan 77 II
1.9 5.6 5.6
7.6
Japan
Jun 77
-0.1
9.8
2.6
1.4
West Germany 77 II
-0.2 6.3 2.4
-1.0
West Germany
Aug 77
1.7
2.6
5.3
7.0
France 76 IV
0 3.9 4.9
0
France
Jun 77
7.7
-0.3
1.0
-8.1
United Kingdom 77 I
-1.9 1.6 -1.3
-7.5
United Kingdom
Sep 77
-0.9
1.0
-2.5
11.8
Italy 76 IV
1.1 3.0 5.5
4.6
Italy
Apr 77
-0.4
2.8
1.0
-3.1
Canada 77 II
-0.6 4.9 0.5
-2.4
Canada
Jul 77
3.0
4.4
0.6
-2.8
Seasonally adjusted.
Seasonally adjusted.
1 Average for latest 3
months compared with overage for previous 3 months.
FIXED INVESTMENT'
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING'
Non-residential; constant
prices
Average
Annual Growth Rate
Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual Growth Rate
Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Charge
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Latest
from Previous I Year
Previous
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier
Quarter
United States
Sep 77
0.4
7.5
6.6
6.5
United States 77 III
1.0 2.1 7.8
4.2
Japan
Jun 77
1.7
17.3
12.5
8.7
Japan 77 11
0.5 1.1 4.5
2.0
West Germany
77 II
1.7
9.5
7.5
7.2
West Germany 77 II
-1.6 0.4 3.4
-6.4
France
77 I
2.3
14.1
13.9
9.5
France 75 IV
8.8 4.2 2.9
40.1
United Kingdom
Aug 77
0
15.3
3.0
3.5
United Kingdom 77 I
-0.6 0 3.4
-2.5
Italy
Jul 77
0.9
20.7
26.3
25.3
Italy 76 IV
5.2 3.0 15.4
22.4
Canada
Jul 77
0.3
11.4
11.0
12.6
Canada 77 II
6.1 3.2 - 1.1
26.7
'Hourly earnings (seasono'ly adjusted)
for the United Sta
tes, Japan, and Canada; h
ourly wage
Seasonally adjusted.
rates far others. West German and French data refer
to the beg
inning of the quarter.
r Average far latest 3
months compared with that for previous
3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATES
Percent Rate of Interest
1 Year
3 Months
I Month
Representative rates
Latest Date
Earlier
Earlier
Earlier
United States
Commerical paper
Nov 9 6.57
5.00
5.75
6.43
Japan
Call money
Nov 11 4.63
6.75
5.75
5.00
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
Nov 9 4.09
4.56
4.10
4.06
France
Call money
Nov 10 9.13
10.94
8.56
8.38
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loans (3
months)
Nov 9 4.83
14.81
6.75
5.18
Canada
Finance paper
Nov 9 7.38
9.38
7.38
7.09
Eurodollars
Three-month deposits
Nov 9 7.23
5.31
6.38
7.19
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 EXPORT P%$Roved For Release 2002/02/01 : CI
- PF? 97A000300040001-6
US $
National Currency
Average
Average
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Aug 77
-0.1
9.5
4.1
-4.4
United States Aug 77 -0.1 9.5 4.1 -4.4
Japan
Jul 77
-1.8
10.4
10.4
-4.4
Japan Jul 77 -1.0 6.3 3.1 -5.3
West Germany
Aug 77
- 1.1
11.4
9.1
7.9
West Germany Aug 77 -0.2 4.5 -0.1 0.6
France
Jul 77
1.5
11.3
8.2
10.2
France Jul 77 -0.1 9.2 8.7 1.7
United Kingdom
Aug 77
2.9
11.0
13.9
15.7
United Kingdom Aug 77 1.9 16.1 16.7 10.1
Italy
Jul 77
1.7
11.3
13.3
18.9
Italy Jul 77 1.4 16.9 19.4 16.4
Canada
Jun 77
-1.7
9.3
-2.9
6.9
Canada Jun 77 -0.9 9.5 5.4 9.6
IMPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
National Curre
ncy
Average
Billion US $
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Latest Month
P
ercent Change
I Year 3 Months
Latest
from Previous
I Year
3 Months
End of Billion US $ Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
United States Aug 77 19.1 14.5 18.6 19.2
United States
Aug 77
1.1
13.4
8.6
1.0
Japan Sep 77 17.9 4.1 16.5 17.4
Japan
Jul 77
-1.5
10.5
-2.3
7.0
West Germany Sep 77 34.5 8.8 35.0 34.3
West Germany
Aug 77
0.6
4.4
-0.7
3.3
France Jul 77 9.9 4.4 9.4 10.0
France
Jul 77
0.1
10.3
14.3
-0.3
United Kingdom Oct 77 20.2 2.8 4.8 13.4
United Kingdom
Aug 77
-1.0
19.3
13.9
1.7
Italy Sep 77 10.5 4.7 5.1 9.7
Italy
Jul 77
-1.6
20.7
15.3
10.4
Canada Aug 77 4.8 4.3 5.6 5.2
Canada
Jun 77
0.5
8.6
8.5
7.4
CURRENT ACCOUNT B
ALANCE'
BASIC BALANCE '
Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions
Cumulative (Million
US $)
Latest
Cumulative (Million US $)
Period Million US $ 1
977
1976
Change
Latest
Period Million US $ 1977 1976 Change
United States 2
77 II
-4,605 -8,763
1,070
-9,833
United States No lo ger published 2
Japan
Sep 77
1,142 6,473
1,815
4,658
Japan Sep 77 611 4,398 1,732 2,666
West Germany
Sep 77
-673
119
956
-837
West Germany Sep 77 -1,341 -4,642 1,655 -6,297
France
77 II
-438 -2,101 -
2,052
- 50
France 77 I - 1,354 - 1,354 - 2,015 660
United Kingdom
77 II
-474 -1,490 -
1,277
-213
United Kingdom 77 II 1,409 2,075 -1,119 3,195
Italy
77 I
-929 -929 -
1,413
484
Italy 76 111 779 N.A. 1,096 N.A.
Canada
77 II
-1,412 -2,229 -
3,088
859
Canada 77 1 164 164 882 -718
To US dollars at the current market rat
Converted
es of exchange.
' Converted to US dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
recommended by the Advisory Committee on the Presentation of Balance of Payments
Seasonally adjusted.
Statistics, the Department of Commerce no longer publishes a basic balance.
EXCHANGE R
ATES
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES'
Spot Rate
As of 4 Nov 77
As of 4 Nov 77
Percent Change from
Percent Change from
US $
1 Year
3 Months
1 Year 3 Months
Per Unit
19 Mar 73
Earlier
Earlier
28 Oct 77
19 Mar 73 Earlier Earlier 28 Oct 77
Japan (yen)
0.0040
6.02
18.62
7.23
0.95
United States 5.01 0.25 -0.67 -0.27
West Germany
0.4432
25.15
6.27
1.69
0.24
Japan 11.87 20.46 6.96 0.83
(Deutsche mark)
West Germany 27.80 3.94 1.12 0.10
France (franc)
0.2065
-6.31
3.25
0.46
-0.05
France -8.13 0 -0.67 -0.32
United Kingdom
1.8040
-26.70
13.75
3.73
1.52
United Kingdom -27.57 13.47 3.79 1.44
(pound sterling)
Italy -39.43 -5.03 -0.82 -0.13
Italy (lira)
0.0011
-35.71
-1.64
0.26
0.09
Canada -8.26 -13.76 -3.94 -0.41
Canada (dollar)
0.9019
-9.60
- 12.36
-3.35
-0.27
' Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries to
reflect the competitive impact of exchange rate variations among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
FOREIGN TRADE BILLION US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
United States
14.0
12.0
10.0
West Germany
10.0
8.0
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
United Kingdom
4.0
3.5
3.6
3.2
JAN APR JUL OCT
1972
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
United States
SEP 77
1.0,916
12,631
90,584
109,882
85.171
88,297
6.4%
24.4%
United Kingdom
SEP 77
5,095
4,936
41,159
44,196
32,650
37,511
26.1?0 ''.
17.8%
Balance
-1,715
-19,298
-3,126
-16,172
Balance
159
-3,037
-4,861
1,824
Japan
SEP 77
6,439
5,183
58,430
45,838
48,305
40,860
21.0''-
12.2%
Italy
AUG 77
4,022
3,489
29,216
29,071
23,305
25,696
25.4?0
13.1%
Balance
1,256
12,592
7,445
5,147
Balance
533
146
-2,391
2,537
West Germany
SEP 77
10,061
8,023
86,227 ,
70,820
73,878
60,750
16.7%
16.6%
,?.
Canada
JUL 77
3,570
3,243
24,281
23,263
21,994
22,127
10.4%
5.1%
Balance
2,038
15,407
13,129
2,279
Balance
327
1,018
-134
1,152
France
AUG 77
5,510
41,964
37,453
12.0?0
5,888
44,174
39,000
13.3?,0
Balance
-378
-2,210
-1,548
-662
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
FOREIGN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
United States
Japan
INDEX: JAN 1975 =100
105
104
West Germany
108
107
1Export and import plots are based on five month weighted moving averages.
A-12
1977
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
105
104
United Kingdom
Italy
109
107
Canada
APR JUL OCT
1977
574491 11-77
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300040001-6
SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
MONEY SUPPLY'
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION'
Average
Average
An
nual Growth
Rote Since
Annual Growth Rote Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Period
Period
1970 Earlier
Earlier'
Brazil
May 77
1.5
36.3
41.7
Brazil
76 II
0.1
11.0 10.7
0.4
India
Jun 77
0.3
12.0
16.9
India
May 77
-0.8
5.1 2.2
10.5
Iran
Jul 77
-0.2
28.4
26.6
South Korea
Aug 77
4.7
22.7 13.6
49.3
South Korea
Aug 77
2.2
31.6
39.9
Mexico
Jun 77
0.8
5.9 5.5
28.0
Mexico
Jul 77
1.1
18.8
27.6
Nigeria
76 IV
0.2
11.3 9.0
0.7
Nigeria
Feb 77
5.9
35.9
54.8
Taiwan
Aug 77
-2.9
12.9 1.2
-14.9
Taiwan
Jul 77
1.4
24.4
27.1
' Seasonally adjusted.
Thailand
Jun 77
- 1.8
13.1
12.0
'Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
Seasonally adjusted
.
' Average for latest
3 months compared with average far previous 3 months.
CONSUMER PRICES
WHOLESALE
PRICES
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual Growth
Rate Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Percent Change
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Brazil
Aug 77
1.9
27.0
43.2
India
May 77
1.6
8.3
9.7
Brazil
Aug 77
0.9
27.2
37.0
Iran
Aug 77
-0.3
12.3
30.7
India
Aug 77
0.3
9.3
5.7
South Korea
Sep 77
0.3
14.5
9.2
Iran
Aug 77
-0.6
10.3
17.7
Mexico
Aug 77
2.1
14.9
34.3
South Korea
Sep 77
0.7
16.3
9.4
Nigera
Mar 77
3.4
14.9
13.6
Mexico
Jul 77
0.7
16.4
48.2
Taiwan
Aug 77
5.6
11.4
12.3
Taiwan
Aug 77
0.5
9.1
4.2
Thailand
Aug 77
1.1
8.7
9.9
Thailand
Jul 77
1.0
10.1
7.1
EXPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
us $
Million US $
Avxoge
Latest
Month
Annual Growth
Rate Since
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Change
End of
Million US $ Jun 1970
Earlier
Earlier
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Brazil
May 77
5,808 1,013
3,401
5,878
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
India
Sep 77
4,648 1,006
2,686
4,559
Brazil
Jul 77
-12.4
16.3
28.4
Iran
Sep 77
11,445 208
9,642
11,025
India
Feb 77
8.0
10.4
8.9
South Korea
Aug 77
3,765 602
2,263
3,519
Iran
Jul 77
0
35.5
18.7
Mexico
Mar 76
1,501 695
1,479
1,533
South Korea
77 II
1.4
8.7
8.5
Nigeria
Jun 77
4,663 148
5,885
4,931
Nigeria
May 76
-0.1
27.3
12.3
Taiwan
Aug 77
1,416 531
1,586
1,331
Taiwan
Jul 77
0.6
12.4
9.7
Thailand
Sep 77
1,925 978
1,989
2,017
Thailand
Dec 76
2.0
13.3
13.1
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Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
3 Months 1 Year
Latest Period
Earlier I
E
arlier 1977
1976
Change
Jul 77 Exports
110.6
27.2
7,225
5,312
36.0%
Jul 77 Imports
22.8
-2.0
6,873
6,989
-1.7%
Jul 77 Balance
352
-1,677
2,029
Jun 77 Exports
-46.9
6.3
2,707
2,485
8.9%
Jun 77 Imports
-55.4
-5.8
2,094
2,117
- 1.1%
Jun 77 Balance
612
368
244
Iran
Aug 77 Exports
-42.5
-5.7
15,621
14,785
5.7%
Aug 77 Imports
- 18.2
-4.8
8,402
8,351
0.6%
Aug 77 Balance
7,219
6,434
785
South Korea
Aug 77 Exports
43.9
20.3
6,217
4,838
28.5%
Aug 77 Imports
16.4
18.8
6,265
5,121
22.3%
Aug 77 Balance
- 47
-283
235
Mexico
Jul 77 Exports
-44.5
22.1
2,453
1,892
29.6%
Jul 77 Imports
46.2
-22.2
2,751
3,511
- 21.6%
Jul 77 Balance
-298
-1,618
1,321
Nigeria
May 77 Exports
22.9
24.5
1,965
1,570
25.2%
Dec 76 Imports
86.7
8.4
2,531
1,990
27.2%
Dec 76 Balance
1,502
1,102
399
Taiwan
Aug 77 Exports
95.9
14.7
5,872
5,191
13.1%
Aug 77 Imports
8.2
11.1
5,116
4,544
12.6%
Aug 77 Balance
756
647
109
Thailand
May 77 Exports
39.8
21.1
1,506
1,210
24.5%
May 77 Imports
62.6
21.7
1,624
1,322
22.8%
May 77 Balance
-117
-112
-5
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AGRIC E A I ES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
CORN
$ PER METRIC TON 5 $ PER BUSHEL
Chicago No. 2 Yellow
1-9 NOV I I :~ r,... ....... .. _ 1.9 NOV 11 0
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 0 0 1973 1974 1975 1-97.6'-
976 1977
SOYBEANS
15 $ PER BUSHEL
9 NOV 0.4858
3 NOV 0.4881
OCT 77 0.5003
NOV 76 0.7702
COTTON
1.0 $ PER POUND
Memphis Middling 1 1/16"
0.6
1-9 NOV
_1 _ 475 0
1976 1977
COFFEE /TEA
$ PER METRIC TON 400 9 PER POUND -
TEA
2,000 London Auction
350 17 OCT 102.3
10 OCT 96.9
300 OCT 77 96.9
1,500 NOV 76 78.0
0
1973 1974
1-9 NOV II
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 0 50 191974
COFFEE
Milds Washed, New York
4OCT 199.50
30 SEP 199.50
OCT 77 199.50
NOV 76 179.08
8,000
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RICE
$ PER HUNDRED WEIGHT
37.5 .~ _
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens,
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Tex.
SOYBEAN MEAL
$ PER TON
?200 160
225
CPYRGHT
0 PER POUND
Bahia, New York price
31 OCT 19.00
25 OCT 18.00
OCT 77 17.06
NOV 76 14.00
19 AUG 213.50
12 AUG 225.00
AUG 77 222.22
NOV 76 150.51
1-31 OCT [I-
1 1 i0
1977
$ PER METRIC TON
7,000
$ PER METRIC TON
400
9 NOV `_. 163.00
3 NOV 160.00
OCT 77 136.41
NOV 76 180.15
350
161.36
1-9 NOV
- It
SOYBEAN OIL/PALM OIL
$ PER POUND $ PER METRIC TON
SOYBEAN OIL
Crude, Tank Cars, f.o.b. Decatur
-;6,000 0.4
1 NOVII
1977
9 NOV 0.1963
3 NOV 0.1896
OCT 77 j 0.1876
Crude, Bulk, c.i.f. US Ports
9 NOV 0.2000
3 NOV 0.1975
OCT 77 0,2017
NOV 76 0.1980
NOTE: The food Index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into Industrialized countries.
i
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1,000
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INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
COPPER WIRE BAR
140 C PER POUND
40
9 NOV 28.3 32.0
3 NOV 28.6 32.0
OCT 77 27.9 31.0
NOV 76 20.8 26.0
2,500 35
1-9 NOV 1,1 200
1975 1976 1977
TIN
$ PER METRIC TON 650 C. PER POUND
LME US
2,000
23.8 31.0
22.9 32.0 550
STEEL SCRAP
150 $ PER LONG TON
LEAD
45 C. PER POUND
9 NOV 53.6 60.6
3 NOV 53.1 60.6
OCT 77 54.8 60.6
NOV 76 58.2 70.6
$ PER METRIC TON
=14,000
LME US 627.4.
1974
$ PER METRIC TON 150 250 S PER TROY OUNCE
us
1-9 NOV I I
1974 1975 1976 1977
9 NOV 574,9 623.5
3 NOV 578.9 631.9
OCT 77 549.6 607 .9
NOV 76 368.6 407.;
1-9 NOV
4,000
1975
I I
1976 1977
9 NOV
167.0 171.1
26 OCT
167.0 164.5
OCT 77
167.0 156)
NOV 76
167.0 157 5
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CPYRGHT
ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
t per pound
53.00
51.00
48.00
41.00
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
359.38
339.27
327.00
306.72
IRON ORE
Non-Bessemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
21.43
20.51
18.75
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ per metric ton
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
58.50
58.50
42.00
44.50
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
t per pound
41.00
43.00
43.00
53.50
NICKEL
Composite US Producer
$ per pound
2.10
2.40
2.41
2.20
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
72.24
72.00
72.00
67.20
TUNGSTEN ORE
65 Percent W03
$ per short ton
10, 348.81
10,804.92
8,455.38
5,049.57
MERCURY
NY
$ per 76 pound flask
140.00
141.90
134.50
125.26
SILVER
LME Cash.
t per troy ounce
485.11
469.85
436.90
431.93
GOLD
London Afternoon Fixing Price $ per troy ounce
163.13
146.60
130.44
142.42
$ PER METRIC TON
NR SR
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS INDEX
300
1970=100
200
1NOVII
1977
LUMBER INDEX6
160
1973=100
1Approximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the US.
3As of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite."
4Quoted on New York market.
5S-type styrene, US export price.
6This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as "bell wethers" of US lumber construction costs.
7Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
NOTE: The Industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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