ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 105
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 16, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 15, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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ecret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
ER EIW 77-037
15 September 1977
Copy N2 8
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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REL ... - This Information has been Authorized for
Release to ...
Classified by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
?5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
date impossible to determine
1111113,11111
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SECRET
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
15 September 1977
USSR: Another Good Year for Crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Soviet grain output in 1977 should fall only slightly below last year's
record harvest, with the outlook for major nongrain crops also promising.
India: Turnaround in International Financial Position . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
The once large financial gap has been at least temporarily closed by (a) an
upsurge in private remittances from Indians working overseas, (b) lower
foodgrain imports, and (c) rapid growth in exports.
EC Membership for Greece: Mixed Economic Blessing . . . . . . . . . .
Full membership in the European Community would facilitate exports of
important agricultural and industrial products, at the same time forcing
structural changes in the domestic economy.
Turkey: Economic Package Falls Short . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
While the new stabilization program moves in the right direction, the
failure to devalue the currency will leave the international banking
community dissatisfied.
Syria's Economy: Another Factor in Political Instability . . . . . . . . . . 17
Mounting economic difficulties-involving delays in aid from Arab donors
and the high costs of the intervention in Lebanon-are contributing to the
erosion of President Asad's political position.
OPEC Assets Up Sharply in First Quarter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Member countries added a healthy $11.3 billion to their official holdings
of foreign assets, bringing the total to $141.2 billion.
World Sugar: Output and Stocks To Remain High . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Current forecasts point to another record sugar harvest and further
additions to already large exporter stocks.
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USSR: ANOTHER GOOD YEAR FOR CROPS
25X1A
We now estimate Soviet grain production in 1977 at 220 million tons, as does
the US Department of Agriculture. This estimate, while slightly below the 1976
record harvest of 224 million tons, is well above the 1971-75 average of 181.5
million tons. If recent poor harvesting conditions continue, a downward adjustment
in our estimate may be required. The outlook for major nongrain crops-potatoes,
sugar beets, sunflower seeds, and cotton-is also good.
We expect the Soviets to continue to be active in international commodity
markets, (a) purchasing 10 million to 15 million tons of grain for delivery in
marketing year 1977/78, (b) exporting cotton, especially to hard currency countries,
(c) possibly resuming limited sugar sales, but (d) not exporting vegetable oil.
Our current estimate of the grain harvest is at the low end of our early August
forecast of 220 million to 225 million tons. The revision largely reflects adjustments
in the projected harvested area.
We now project winter grain production at 67 million tons, down 5 million
tons from our August forecast. Our new estimate nonetheless remains above the
previous record of 63.5 million tons. Preliminary data from Moldavia and parts of
the southern and western Ukraine continue to support the estimate of an unusually
large winter grain harvest.
Spring grain production is tentatively put at 153 million tons. During August,
spring grain prospects became considerably more uncertain. Excessive rainfall in the
northern European USSR caused considerable localized flooding and almost
certainly had an adverse effect on grain quality. In the Baltic republics and
Belorussia, many farms have had to leave equipment in muddy fields and in some
instances have resorted to hand harvesting to minimize losses. These harvesting
delays will mean slightly lower yields.
East of the Ural Mountains in northern Kazakhstan and West Siberia-regions
that account for about 60 percent of the spring wheat area-crop conditions also are
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Weekly are
welcome. For the text, they may be directed to of the 25X1 A
Office c Research, Code 143, Extension 59 3; or t e Economic Indica-
tors, to40of OER, Extension 5943.
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complicated. Since mid-August, rain has caused a substantial lag in harvest
operations in Kazakhstan and promoted growth of new plant stems, called
secondary tillering. If killing frosts occur prior to mid-September, (a) the
contribution of secondary tillers to final production will be minimal, (b) harvesting
losses could increase because grain heads on the main stalk would be overripe, and
(c) grain quality would deteriorate with the mixture of immature grain from the
tillers.
As if 5 September about 37 million hectares of small grain and pulse crops,
about 29 percent of the sown area, remained to be threshed for the USSR as a
whole. Final production will be greatly dependent on prevailing harvest conditions
through early October. If current "wet harvest" problems persist in the Baltic
republics and northern Kazakhstan, an additional downward adjustment could be
made both to projected total output and to the milling and breadmaking quality of
wheat.
Nongrain Crops
The current outlook for the USSR's major nongrain crops is also favorable,
with the value of output close to last year's level. As a group, these crops rival grain
in their impact on agricultural production and on the country's net import position.
Potatoes-an important food and feed crop-are a partial substitute for grain.
Sunflower seeds and sugar beets supply three-quarters and four-fifths of the
vegetable oil and sugar consumed yearly in the USSR, while cotton exports earn
sizable amounts of hard currency.
In the European USSR, where most of the potatoes, sugar beets, and
sunflowers are grown, an early spring and a warm, wet summer fostered crop
development. Late spring frosts in some areas damaged fruit trees and potatoes, but
overall the effect was apparently minor. Currently, heavy rainfall has left standing
water in many fields in the western Ukraine and Belorussia, which may affect some
crops, particularly potatoes. Because of this year's advanced development, harvesting
of sugar beets and potatoes began earlier than usual, reducing the risk of loss from
early frosts. Nevertheless, dryer weather is needed throughout the region during the
next few weeks to avoid problems with plant disease and to minimize harvesting
losses. An early winter would lower estimated production of most of the nongrain
crops.
Potatoes: We estimate the 1977 harvest of potatoes, the USSR's most
important nongrain crop, at 80 million to 85 million tons, close to last year's 85
million tons. Good yields are expected even though sown area for the second
consecutive year is down roughly 10 percent from normal levels. The harvest started
in late August and will continue into October. The prolonging of wet conditions,
especially in the northwest, or an early winter could lower our estimate slightly.
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Sugar beets: This year's harvest of sugar beets should be greater than 90 million
tons, possibly reaching last year's record level of almost 100 million tons. A little
more than half of the sown area has been harvested, with preliminary weights
reported high. The sugar content of the sugar beet as well as the yield remain
sensitive to weather conditions. This year's wet conditions are expected to increase
USSR: Major Nongrain Crops
Estimate
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Net value of major
nongrain crops'
100
97
88
115
98
97
102
102
Production
Potatoes
Sugar beets
Sunflower seeds
Cotton
96.8 92.7 78.3 108.2 81.0 88.7 '
85.1
80-85
78.9 72.2 76.4 87.0 77.9 66.3
99.1
PO-100
6.1 5.7 5.0 7.4 6.8 5.0
5.3
61h
6.9 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.4 7.9
8.3
81h
'Value of crops produced less seed and feed.
the weight of the beet but lower sugar content. With a good harvest likely, even a
slightly-below-normal sugar content will allow the Soviets to achieve planned sugar
output.
Sunflower seed: Production of sunflower seed could reach 6 1/2 million tons,
up more than 20 percent from last year's poor crop, especially if dryer weather
prevails during the rest of September. Presently there are few signs of the disease
problems that contributed to the 1976 shortfall.
Cotton: A record cotton crop of 8 1/2 million tons is possible this year despite
problems early in the growing season. About 400,000 hectares out of a total
planting of 3 million hectares were resown, in large part due to heavy rains and
floods in June. On balance, the rain was beneficial, however, replenishing reservoirs
for the summer. Warm weather hastened crop development, and the harvest began
early, reducing the risk from early frosts.
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Agricultural Trade
Soviet agricultural commodity trade during marketing year 1977/78 is likely to
be similar to last year's pattern. Unless harvesting conditions deteriorate, this year's
good crop prospects will allow the Soviets to (a) hold grain imports to 10 million to
15 million tons, (b) export large quantities of cotton, (c) possibly resume some sugar
exports in 1978, and (d) trim meat imports.
Grain: Grain delivered on Soviet account in marketing year 1977/78 probably
will fall between 10 million and 15 million tons. This compares with about 11
million tons delivered in 1976/77. Confirmed contracts to date amount to only 4
million tons-from the United States, Canada, Australia, and India. The size of US
sales is the big unknown. Market sources contend that several million tons more than
the minimum 6 million tons of wheat and corn required by the US-USSR long-term
agreement have already been sold, but only 1.8 million tons have been registered
with USDA. Even with a harvest as large as 220 million tons the Soviets could use
these imports to continue stock rebuilding, to compensate for domestic wheat
quality, and to allow the export of 4 million to 5 million tons of grain to traditional
clients.
Cotton: The USSR in recent years has vied with the United States for primacy
in the world cotton trade. This year is no exception. The Soviets should continue to
expand exports to hard currency areas and restrict shipments to Eastern Europe.
Earlier this year a market source reported that the Soviets were becoming
"aggressive" cotton sellers in West European cotton purchasing centers. Current low
world prices should not deter the Soviets from selling this year's large crop. Soviet
cotton ginning continues for almost a year after the crop is harvested, allowing them
to sell most of their crop in 1978, when prices are expected to rise.
Sugar: In the last several years poor sugar beet harvests or unusually low
extraction rates have prevented the Soviets from exporting large amounts of refined
sugar. In fact, the USSR has had to purchase raw sugar not only from its traditional
supplier, Cuba, but also from other countries such as the Philippines and Brazil to
maintain domestic consumption. Sugar refined from last year's harvest was
supplemented by 600,000 tons of Philippine sugar plus a record amount of 3.6
million tons from Cuba. A good crop this year plus imports of perhaps 3 million
tons from Cuba could allow Moscow to resume exporting refined sugar by
mid-1978.
Meat: Since domestic meat supplies will improve this year because of larger
feed supplies and greater livestock numbers, imports are likely to be down from last
year. So far no contracts have been announced for 1977/78 delivery, although
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Moscow is talking with both Australia and New Zealand. A desire for cheaper prices,
particularly for beef, seems to be holding the Soviets back.
Vegetable oil: The USSR is not expected to be a major supplier of sunflower
seed oil this year. Production in excess of domestic needs will likely be used to
rebuild inventories depleted because of two successive poor crops. At the same time,
Moscow will continue to import small quantities of coconut, palm, and other edible
oils. The USSR is not likely to supplement vegetable oil supplies with butter from
the current EC "mountain"; the last purchase in March 1977 caused a furor in the
Common Market and resulted in a change of rules whereby the Commission must
know the product destination before approving the transaction. Furthermore, the
Commission has agreed that no rebates will be granted on big butter deals, so
Moscow's buying advantage has disappeared. (Confidential)
INDIA: TURNAROUND IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL POSITION
India is now in a stronger international financial position than at any time in
the country's history. The once large financial gap* has been at least temporarily
eliminated thanks to an upsurge in private remittances, lower foodgrain imports, and
rapid growth in exports, especially manufactured goods. Favorable crop prospects
assure strong payments performance, at least through next year. This, combined
with large foreign exchange reserves, increases the policy options of the coalition
Janata government but does not necessarily provide a secure base for stepping up
economic growth rates. The vast farm sector is still dominated by the monsoon;
acceleration of nonagricultural growth would require more aggressive economic
policies than pursued by postindependence Indian governments.
The strong payments position India now enjoys is a marked break with the
past. During the 1960s the current account deficit fluctuated between $500 million
and $1.4 billion annually, depending on agricultural output and the volume of food
imports. Government policies under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, although favoring
export promotion, failed to insulate the payments balance from crop failures. Even
during periods of good crops, massive foreign aid was needed to maintain required
*This article is the 12th in a series on the foreign financial gap faced by individual LDCs. In these articles,
financial gap is defined as the current account deficit plus amortization of medium- and long-term debt. Previous
articles, have covered Mexico, the Philippines, South Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Taiwan, Peru, Jamaica, Zaire,
Chile, and Egypt.
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imports. Since 1967 donors have also regularly provided some debt relief to keep the
financial gap within bounds.
The current account deficit swelled following the 1973/74 oil price hike,
reaching an average of $1.4 billion in 1974-75. Although debt amortization
payments rose, the main element in the increase was a sharp deterioration in the
trade account, as rising oil and food import costs more than offset export gains.
With large-scale aid available, New Delhi was able to avoid further restrictions on
imports. Tight credit and wage curbs imposed in 1974 and the economic measures
associated with the Emergency regulations of June 1975 were aimed at tempering
inflation and controlling labor unrest rather than reducing the payments gap.
Marked Improvement in 1976
The swing from a $1.3 billion current account deficit in 1975 to a $1 billion
surplus in 1976 was the largest turnaround experienced by any non-OPEC LDC last
India: Foreign Financial Gap
1974
1975
1976
19771
Million US $
Exports, f.o.b.'
3,930
4,550
5,600
6,000
Imports, c.i.f.'
5,260
6,000
5,700
6,200
Private remittances
Interest on external
300
900
1,700
1,600
public debt
Other net services and
-240
-250
-280
-280
errors and omissions
-300
-490
-350
-500
Current account balance
-1,570
-1,290
970
620
Debt amortization
-490
-500
-560
-580
Financial gap
-2,060
-1,790
410
40
Gross foreign aid
Net short-term capital and
1,770
2,320
2,050
2,000
errors and omissions
-140
-690
-410
-545
Net IMF drawings
610
210
-350
-470
Change in reserves
180
50
1,700
1,025
Percent
Debt service ratio 18.6 16.5 15.0 14.3
1Projected.
2These trade estimates differ from those in the attached Economic Indicators. The latter are
based on incomplete statistics of the Indian Customs Department.
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year. Contributing to the improvement was a sharp decline in imports of foodgrains,
made possible by the bumper 1975/76 grain harvest and falling grain prices. At the
same time, increased sales to OPEC countries helped push export gains to 23
percent, all but eliminating the trade deficit. An added factor was the dramatic rise
in private remittances from Indians working overseas. These inflows, partly induced
by the mid-1975 delinking of the rupee from sterling and by new curbs on smuggling
and speculation, reached $1.7 billion last year, compared with only $300 million in
1974.
The sizable current account surplus more than offset India's debt amortization
costs in 1976, leaving a financial surplus of $410 million. At the same time, New
Delhi continued receiving large aid inflows-$2 billion-including a small amount of
debt relief. In these circumstances, foreign exchange reserves mounted sharply,
reaching $3.1 billion by yearend, equal to about six months' imports. Bolstered with
these reserves, New Delhi easily repaid nearly half of the $820 million in IMF
drawings made during the 1974-75 payments squeeze. These impressive gains also
allowed Gandhi to ease longstanding import restrictions in late 1976.
The 1977 Outlook
Another current account surplus-about $600 million to $650 million-is in the
making this year. Based on fragmentary data for first half 1977, we expect
export gains between 5 and 10 percent, in part reflecting increased sales of
machinery and intermediate goods to OPEC countries. High prices for a few
important items such as tea will also help assure export growth. We expect imports
to grow as purchases other than grain rise from their low 1974-76 levels. Foodgrain
imports will drop to negligible amounts, since delivery on practically all contracts
signed in 1974-75 was completed by yearend 1976.
Altogether the trade balance will show at most a $200 million deficit, an
amount readily offset by the large surplus on service and transfer payments. Large
inflows of private remittances have surprisingly continued during the first months of
the Janata regime, even though the government has relinquished the Emergency
regulations that gave Gandhi so much power to curb illegal transactions. These
inflows will more than cover the $280 million India pays in interest on the external
debt as well as the projected $500 million deficit on other net service costs.
In these circumstances New Delhi will record another, albeit small, financial
surplus this year. Foreign aid receipts will be only slightly lower than last
year's $2.05 billion. Even allowing for larger-than-normal capital outflows and
accelerated repurchases on India's outstanding net IMF obligations- $470
million-foreign exchange holdings will increase sharply. Our projections put official
reserves at $4.1 billion by yearend. In no circumstances, then, does India need the
$50 million worth of debt relief scheduled for this year.
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INDIA: Selected Economic Indexes
VARIOUS MONTHS=100
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1978 and Beyond
If the inflow of private remittances stabilizes near recent levels, New Delhi will
be in sound financial shape again next year. The other key element in the payments
outlook, foodgrain imports, is already working in the government's favor. Large
grain stocks-on the order of 20 million tons-provide a sizable cushion against any
crop shortfall so that grain imports will be minimal again next year. Moreover,
weather conditions have so far been favorable for the main crops due for harvesting
over the next two months. The fate of the less important spring crops is still
unknown.
The level of foreign exchange reserves, exceptionally high for India, could
permit a further easing of import controls over the next 12 months. The Janata
government has already moved to liberalize imports of industrial equipment, cotton,
and edible oils. However, some manufacturers will not take advantage of import
liberalization if tight credit, labor disruptions, and weak domestic demand persists.
New Delhi also appears determined to hold the line on imports that compete with
domestic industry. Like its predecessor, the new government has taken a negative
stance toward foreign investment except in high-technology industries.
Large foreign exchange reserves and high grain stocks will not by themselves
bring higher economic growth rates and improved living standards. The pace and
pattern of Indian real growth will remain dominated by agricultural developments
for the foreseeable future. For example, real GNP growth, after hitting 8.6 percent
for the year ending March 1976 on the strength of record farm output, slipped to
about 2 percent as crop production fell off. Even a 10-percent gain in industrial
production failed to offset the effects of the harvest.
The Janata government, as that of Indira Gandhi, recognizes this dependence
on the rural sector. But it is hamstrung in trying to deal with its myriad economic
and institutional problems. Free of foreign exchange constraints, the government has
the option of stimulating more rapid development outside the agricultural sector.
Achieving the political consensus necessary for such action among the disparate
elements of the Janata Party would be difficult. (Confidential)
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For political reasons, Athens and the European Community are resolved to
forge ahead with negotiations for full Greek membership in the Community. Greek
accession promises economic pluses and minuses for both parties.
EC MEMBERSHIP FOR GREECE:
MIXED ECONOMIC BLESSING
Background to the Greek Application
Greek ties to the European Community go back to 1962, when an association
agreement went into effect. This accord provided for phased liberalization of trade
leading to a full customs union covering most products. Greece and the Community
also were to cooperate more closely on migrant labor questions and move toward
harmonization of economic policies. The agreement was to be fully implemented by
1984, but Community hostility toward the Greek military junta slowed progress
drastically during 1967-74. During the period of dictatorship, only the automatic
provisions for tariff dismantling proceeded on schedule. In July 1968 most Greek
industrial products, except iron and steel, and many agricultural goods began
entering the EC duty free.
Through a series of staged reductions, Athens has eliminated all duties on EC
industrial goods that do not compete directly with Greek manufactures-two-thirds
of Greek imports from the Community. It also has slashed tariffs on other EC
industrial products by roughly half. In addition, Greece has moved far toward full
alignment of its duties against non-EC countries with the Community's common
external tariff.
Current Negotiations
In mid-1975, the democratic regime of Prime Minister Caramanlis applied for
full membership in the Community. Current Greek-EC negotiations are focused on
reconciling difficulties in specific sectors-especially agriculture-and agreeing on the
length of the transition period. Greek policymakers hope to complete negotiations
by late 1978. They want full membership to be bestowed formally in late 1979,
with integration of Greece into the Community to be accomplished over an ensuing
five-year transition period. The Community has not committed itself to a timetable.
The ever troublesome issue of agriculture presents the principal threat to timely
conclusion of accession negotiations. While Greek agricultural production does not
constitute a major threat to the EC, the Community will be careful not to set any
precedent with Athens that it could not live with in future dealings with Madrid and
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Greece: Direction of Trade 1976
Exports Imports
Communist
Communist Countries
Countries us
Developed
Countries 6%
120
ping
ies
Other
~s so 9 77 $2,643 Million $6,013 Million
Lisbon. Greece is willing to accept immediately the EC's Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP) on a wide range of products-including fruits, vegetables, cereals,
wines, and olive oil-where CAP would work to Greece's advantage. Athens has
asked that CAP rules be extended to cover cotton, oriental tobacco, and raisins, of
which Greece is a significant producer and the EC a negligible one. On the other
hand, Athens will have difficulty accepting the CAP treatment of meat and dairy
products.
One obstacle to agricultural negotiations was overcome recently when France
waived earlier objections to talking with Athens before completion of an internal
review of EC agricultural policy. While the Community turned down Athens's
request for direct representation in the EC review, it did agree to keep Greece
informed about the discussions. Athens in return has promised to accept the
Community's policy revisions when the time comes.
What Entry Means to Greece
Prime Minister Caramanlis's drive for full EC membership is based on his belief
that it would buttress representative government in Greece and reduce the likelihood
of Turkish aggression. Caramanlis has about 90 percent of the Parliament behind
him on the EC issue. Only fiery Andreas Papandreou and his party-the Panhellenic
Socialist Movement-plus a few Moscow-oriented Communists-the Communist
Party-Exterior-oppose EC membership. They argue that full membership would
leave Greece vulnerable to domination by foreign capital.
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The Economic Costs
Entry into the EC would entail substantial costs for Greece, with pressure for
structural change building through the transition period. The bulk of potential trade
gains vis-a-vis the EC have already been obtained since most Greek goods enter the
Community duty free. The competitive position of Greek exporters would be
weakened by accession if, as expected, the EC pressed Athens to abandon its present
system of export incentives-interest subsidies and tax rebates.
Even while phasing out import duties, Athens has been able to protect
domestic producers with an umbrella of nontariff barriers-technical and safety
standards, health regulations, and favoring of local producers in Greek Government
purchases. Full membership would entail removal of such barriers, forcing structural
changes in both industry and agriculture. Many firms are too small to compete
effectively with EC counterparts and would have to merge into larger units.
Industrial adjustment would be further complicated by the need to replace Greece's
present complex system of investment incentives with a simple grant system
acceptable to the Community.
Adjustments in the shipping industry could prove extremely difficult. The
Greek flag would add more than 40 million tons to the EC's existing 130-million-ton
fleet. Shipping employs more people than any other industry in Greece and is the
nation's top earner of foreign exchange-$914 million in 1976. EC membership
would allow Greek crews to work on ships of other nationalities, an option currently
not open. As Greek sailors seeking higher wages shifted to other flags, the cost of
operating EC and Greek ships would be brought closer into line, reducing the Greek
shipping industry's cost advantage.
The Economic Benefits
On the positive side, Greece would obtain a number of economic benefits from
full membership, although some would become evident only over time.
? As a Community member, Greece immediately would become a net
recipient of regional development aid and agricultural guarantees
estimated at about $360 million per year; Athens probably would. not
have to pay its full share of EC budget costs for up to five years.
? Greek agricultural products-notably fruits, vegetables, olive oil, and
wine-would enter Community markets free of the compensatory duties
occasionally levied on them heretofore.
? Greek exports of industrial products would gain duty-free access to
EFTA countries through existing EC-EFTA free trade agreements.
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M N O ~ h
CD M 0
i-Ir, (6 nF
O
nN
European Community and Greece:
Population and Gross National Product
0
CO
M
?1 M
oq ?e ?~` ~a~a cay `JF aiv- Ica Jib ~G
r e
~Qy~ o`ea Pe ~J+ /
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? Greek emigrant workers would benefit from the free movement of labor
within the Community and the guarantee of equal treatment with local
nationals.
? Foreign investment inflows should increase, fostering modernization
and growth of Greek industry.
What Entry Means to the EC
EC leaders see the main justification for Greek accession to be political. They
hold that full EC membership must be open to all democratic countries in Europe to
further the cause of representative government. On the economic side, Greek
accession would create investment opportunities for present EC members in a small
but strategically located country with low labor costs.
On the negative side, Greek membership would put a further strain on the
Community's financial resources. At present spending levels, Greece's cut of regional
aid alone would come to about $120 million annually. Present EC recipient
countries already have warned that they are unwilling to share existing funds with
new members. The burden of expanding payments to accommodate Greek accession
would fall upon the Community's wealthier members, primarily West Germany.
Free entry of Greek labor into the EC would worsen an already bad
unemployment situation. As with agriculture, the Community is highly conscious
that the terms agreed to will constitute a precedent for negotiations with Spain and
Portugal. Hence, labor-importing members of the Community are likely to hold out
for a long period of transition to completely free entry.
Accession of Greece, especially if followed by that of Spain and Portugal,
would tilt the Community's center of gravity away from the northern industrial
members. This shift would require modification of the CAP, since present policy
favors temperate-zone farm products such as cereals, meat, and dairy products.
Simply boosting the prices of southern agricultural produce is not a workable option
because that approach would lead to overproduction of perishable items. Emphasis
would have to be put on income supplements, retraining, loans, and other regional
programs. (Confidential)
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TURKEY: ECONOMIC PACKAGE FALLS SHORT
The economic stabilization measures announced by Ankara last week will do
little to alleviate Turkey's critical foreign exchange shortage. The seven-week-old
Demirel government will have to adopt additional measures to gain an IMF loan and
restore the confidence of international lenders. Without an infusion of foreign funds
to cover raw material imports, Turkey's industrial output will be curtailed and
unemployment worsened.
The program will exert its main effect through increases in prices of goods and
services produced by state-owned economic enterprises. Regular gasoline, previously
subsidized, went up 96 percent. Fuel oil rose 62 percent. Paper, cement, iron and
steel products, and electricity jumped 25 to 70 percent. Telephone and postal rates
more than doubled.
The long overdue, hikes will cut the losses, of state companies; these losses
would have totaled an estimated $2.5 billion for 1977. The price increases will not
balance the national budget as Ankara claims. The higher gasoline and fuel oil prices
will discourage oil imports and help the balance of payments; even so the current
account deficit will be nearly $2.5 billion this year, compared with approximately
$2.3 billion in 1976. The spate of price increases will worsen inflation, already
running about 25 percent. The anti-inflation measures in last week's announce-
ment-a rise in bank reserve requirements of 5 percent, a one-year limit on consumer
credit, and higher interest rates on savings deposits-will not stem the tide. The series
of outright balance-of-payments measures (minor concessions to exporters, disincen-
tives for automobile imports, a five-year exchange rate guarantee on worker
remittances, a renewed vow to sell off wheat stocks, and a surcharge on import
guarantees) should have a small positive effect.
Government Divided
The absence of steps considered important by international banking circles and
the IMF, such as a substantial currency devaluation and a credible commitment to
end recurrent budget deficits, stems from policy differences within the coalition
government. Prime Minister Demirel, although concerned about the contractionary
effects of these stronger measures, probably was willing to go along. He has
apparently bowed to the views of Deputy Prime Minister Erbakan in the interest of
preserving his coalition.
Erbakan, who sought and received control of key economic policy posts as his
price for joining the Demirel cabinet, stresses rapid industrialization and rejects any
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policies that threaten Turkey's 7- to 8-percent annual growth. He also argues that
the IMF measures would infringe on Turkish sovereignty.
The limited measures announced last week, although clearly unpopular,
probably will not generate serious political opposition. Most leading Turks are ready
to applaud virtually any effort to remedy the country's economic ills.
A Rock or a Hard Place?
The alternatives to a harsher stabilization program that would open the way to
new borrowing are unpleasant. Without an infusion of foreign exchange, production
will have to be curtailed. The bulk of imports consists of raw materials and
machinery, and shortages of raw materials for such industries as chemicals,
construction, and food processing have already appeared. Input shortages, like
reduction of demand through strong austerity measures, would worsen unemploy-
ment, currently 13 percent.
International bankers have made it clear that any new loans are contingent on
an agreement between Ankara and the IMF. Loans from the IMF itself will buy
Turkey only a little time, since under present arrangements they could not exceed
$600 million. Ankara currently owes an estimated $700 million to $800 million for
imports and $300 million in overdrafts on foreign banks. Furthermore, foreign
exchange deposits totaling $385 million will come due for redemption or renewal by
the end of the year; Ankara has been having trouble meeting demands for
redemption of such deposits for several months.
Turkish officials have referred repeatedly in recent weeks to a US "economic
embargo," asserting that US banks have refused to extend new loans and have
withdrawn some foreign exchange deposits from Turkey at the direction of the US
Government. In the face of strong official US rebuttals, Turkish proponents of this
theory have begun to back off.
Notwithstanding the charges of US unfriendliness, Demirel undoubtedly
expects help from Washington as well as from other Western governments. He will be
extremely reluctant to take stronger austerity moves as long as he thinks that money
is likely to become available from abroad. (Confidential)
16 SECRET
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SYRIA'S ECONOMY: ANOTHER FACTOR IN
POLITICAL INSTABILITY
Mounting economic difficulties have now become an important factor in the
erosion of President Asad's once strong political position. The Syrian economy,
although growing fairly rapidly, has been in and out of financial trouble during the
past two years. Delays in Arab aid disbursements and the intervention in Lebanon
have depleted foreign exchange reserves and forced the leadership into controlling
imports, postponing wage increases, and cutting back the development program.
Public discontent over the economy reportedly is widespread.
Asad will need a sharp boost in outside aid to shore up foreign exchange
reserves and to begin softening the unpopular austerity program. Exports, headed by
oil and cotton, are not expected to be of much help. Damascus recently announced
a 10-percent cutback on oil output to maintain reserves.
During 1974-76, the small Syrian economy grew more rapidly than almost any
other non-OPEC LDC:
? Real GNP increased at an average rate in excess of 10 percent annually.
? Unemployment-more than 7 percent before 1973-was practically
eliminated.
? Foreign exchange resources, buoyed by increased oil prices and
generous Arab aid, accommodated an average increase of 56 percent a
year in imports.
This rapid postwar growth was supported by large-scale Arab aid for both
reconstruction and new industrial projects. The boom was accompanied by a
tripling of the inflation rate-from 5 to 15 percent, according to the official
cost-of-living index, which greatly understates the actual rate. The key inflation
factor was the emergence of severe bottlenecks in the supply of trained manpower
and construction materials. Compounding the labor shortage was the emigration of
workers-particularly Palestinian refugees-seeking better paying jobs in the Gulf
states.
The Payments Squeeze, 1976-77
The upsurge in postwar imports pushed the Syrian deficit on goods and services
to $560 million to 1975, an amount easily financed by capital inflows of close to
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$800 million. Last year, however, the deficit on goods and services doubled to $1.2
billion, while Arab aid flows declined sharply. Uncertain about Syrian intentions in
Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and other Arab donors slashed grant aid to $400 million,
about two-thirds of what Damascus had been expecting. To cover the gap, the Asad
government drew down foreign exchange reserves by $375 million during 1976. By
spring 1977, reserves approached zero as a result of further drawdowns of $360
million.
Perhaps one-third of the
1976 deterioration in the goods Syria: Balance of Payments
and services account stemmed
from Syria's involvement in
Lebanon and losses associated
with closing of the Iraqi pipe-
line. Although no reliable esti-
mates are available, the foreign
exchange cost of the Lebanese
intervention last year probably
amounted to at least $120 mil-
lion, all of which was shoul-
dered by Damascus. The bulk
of these outlays went for troop
salaries paid abroad, spare parts,
food, and clothing. Syria also
provided some emergency relief
assistance to Lebanon. Despite
Arab League pledges to com-
Million US $
1975
1976'
19772
Balance on
goods and services
-563
-1,176
-1,000
Trade balance
-610
-1,205
-1,050
Exports
930
1,065
1,150
Imports
1,540
2,270
2,100
Net services
47
29
50
Net capital inflows
785
775
1,000
Grant aid
705
400
600
Loans and investments3
80
375
400
Net errors and omissions
13
26
0
Change in reserves
235
-375
0
pensate Syria, no funds were 1Preliminary.
made available last year, al- 2Projected.
though some $60 million was 3Includes short-term borrowing.
provided during the first four
months of 1977.
Damascus also lost the private remittances from Syrian workers who fled
Lebanon during the fighting. Aside from the Lebanese affair, Syria's international
financial position was hurt by longstanding political differences with Iraq. The
dispute led to the closing of the Iraqi pipeline in early 1976 and cost Syria both in
transit fees and a preferential price for Iraqi crude. Loss of the pipeline revenues
alone cost Syria an estimated $135 million in foreign exchange earnings in 1976.
The Move to Austerity
Delayed aid transfers, low foreign exchange reserves, and the continuing
financial pressures of the Lebanese intervention have forced the government to
adopt increasingly tough austerity measures. The key measures now include (a) tight
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wage controls, (b) reduced consumer subsidies, and (c) higher duties and direct
controls on imports, including tight restrictions on automobile imports. Moreover,
no new development projects have been initiated, and review of foreign project
proposals was suspended in early 1977. As a result, government spending in 1977
will probably be slightly lower in real terms than in 1976. Because of the
momentum of previous spending programs, real GDP growth should approximate 5
to 6 percent this year, two-thirds the 1976 rate.
The austerity measures should help reduce the deficit on goods and services to
about $1 billion in 1977. Imports are projected to remain close to 1976 levels in
nominal terms and decline sharply in real terms. We project exports to rise less than
10 percent, gains in cotton and other traditional exports being offset by a drop in oil
export earnings. Damascus recently announced that crude oil production-200,000
b/d last year-will be down at least 10 percent in 1977 because of efforts to
maintain the desired reserves-to-production ratio. Oil sales, 60 percent of Syria's
export proceeds, have accounted for most of the growth in export earnings since
1973.
With a slightly reduced deficit on goods and services and increased aid receipts,
Syria should be able to avoid another foreign exchange crisis this year. After
minimal aid receipts in early 1977, Syria has finally received $600 million in Arab
grants and loans and expects another $150 million by yearend. The government may
have used part of this assistance to rebuild reserves. Damascus should be able to
obtain $250 million in other foreign capital. The timing of these flows is the critical
question; Damascus reportedly is delinquent on payments on $300 million to $400
million in short-term commercial credit.
Political Implications
The austerity measures-especially the government wage squeeze-have put
Asad's regime on shaky ground. Discontent reportedly is widespread in the civil
service, which has been losing ground to private sector wage rates in the last few
years. So far, there have been only threats of strikes by teachers and other
government workers. Asad did take pains to exclude military salaries and allowances
from his wage freeze; the military together with the civil service make up the bulk of
his political support.
Asad may be able to dispel rising discontent over the economy if he can
convince the populace that economic controls are temporary and that the lid on
wages in particular can be lifted by next year. The key to easing the austerity
program is a stepped-up, regular flow of Arab aid, given the limits to export growth.
So far, however, Saudi Arabia and other Arab donors have not been willing to
guarantee a steady flow of assistance. Aside from some $80 million pledged by the
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United States this year and a rumored debt moratorium provided by the USSR,
Syria has not been able to find major aid sources outside the Arab world. Another
round of lengthy delays in Arab aid payments could force Asad to impose jarring
economic measures of the kind that precipitated the Egyptian riots of last January.
(Secret Noforn)
In first quarter 1977,
OPEC members added a
healthy $11.3 billion to their
official holdings of foreign as-
sets, bringing total holdings to
$141.2 billion.
The rise was the biggest
quarterly jump since fourth
quarter 1975, reflecting un-
usually large oil receipts accru-
ing from (a) purchases made to
beat yearend price rises and (b)
a tightening of credit terms-
typically from 90 days down to
60 days. Countries with limited
ability to absorb surplus oil
revenues domestically ac-
counted for 75 percent of the
increase in assets and now hold
two-thirds of total OPEC as-
sets. At the end of 1974, the
low absorbers had accounted
for one-half of the total.
Type of Assets
OPEC: Foreign Official Assets'
Change in 1st
Qtr 1977
Total as of
31 Mar 1977
Total
11,315
141,200
Low absorbers
8,430
94,550
Kuwait
2,170
21,510
Qatar
140
3,660
Saudi Arabia
4,595
53,590
UAE
1,525
15,790
High absorbers
2,885
46,650
Algeria
290
2,810
Ecuador
140
695
Gabon
-10
110
Indonesia
300
1,845
Iran
1,945
16,170
Iraq
600
5,735
Libya
-45
3,950
Nigeria
-260
5,015
Venezuela
-75
10,320
The sharp increase in OPEC oil receipts in first quarter 1977 resulted in a
substantial $3.3 billion rise in short-term asset holdings. Funds apparently were
being shunted into short-term instruments until suitable long-term investment
opportunities could be found. The inability of OPEC members to locate quickly
acceptable longer term investments led to a rise in the popularity of short-term US
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government securities. Holdings of these securities, which had declined $1 billion in
1976, rose $1.4 billion in the first quarter.
Holdings of long-term securities increased $8.0 billion, led by government
securities and direct placements. Bilateral lending to non-OPEC LDCs of $675
million highlighted the rise in direct placement holdings. Kuwaiti and Saudi loans to
fellow OPEC members and subscriptions to joint Arab ventures-such as the Arab
Petroleum Investment Company-also gained momentum in January-March 1977.
OPEC: Foreign Official Assets, by Type,
as of 31 March 1977
Gold/SDR/
Bank
Gov't
Other
Total
IMF Position
Deposits
Securities
Assets
Total
100
5
70
25
Algeria
100
35
65
Negl
Ecuador
100
10
90
Negl
Gabon
100
10
90
Negl
Indonesia
100
Negl
95
5
Iran
100
5
40
20
35
Iraq
100
10
85
Negl
5
Kuwait
100
5
30
15
50
Libya
100
10
75
15
Nigeria
100
5
95
Negl
Saudi Arabia
100
Negl
40
30
30
Venezuela
100
20
60
20
Negl
Official OPEC funds in excess of $2.7 billion moved into the United States in
the first three months of 1977 compared with $1.2 billion in fourth quarter 1976.
Saudi and Kuwaiti investment in the United States accounted for $1.9 billion of first
*OPEC foreign official assets are assumed to remain in the country where they are initially placed until removed
by the original investor. When OPEC funds managed by US financial institutions are invested in non-US
securities, for example, the data would still show these funds as being placed in the United States; no attempt is
made to determine whether the non-US security was purchased from another US holder or from a non-US
resident.
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OPEC: Foreign Official Assets, by Location,
as of 31 March 1977
Total
Total
100
United
States
25
United
Kingdom
25
Continental
Europe,
Japan, and
Canada
20
IMF/
World
Bank
10
Other
20
Algeria
100
30
30
Negl
5
35
Ecuador
100
30
5
5
5
55,
Gabon
100
Negl
0
0
10
90
Indonesia
100
15
5
55
5
20.
Iran
100
15
25
30
10
20
Iraq
100
5
Neg1
45
Negl
50
Kuwait
100
25
25
15
5
30
Libya
100
20
0
55
5
20
Nigeria
100
5
20
5
15
55
Saudi Arabia
100
30
25
20
10
15
Venezuela
100
20
25
15
15
25
OPEC: Foreign Official Assets, by Currency,
as of 31 March 1977
Percent
Gold/SDR/
Total IMF Position
Dollars
Sterling Other
Total 100
5
70
5
20
Algeria 100
35
30
0
35
Ecuador 100
10
85
Negl
5
Gabon 100
10
Negl
0
90
Indonesia 100
Negl
55
0
45,
j
Iran 100
5
85
Negi
10
Iraq 100
10
35
0
55
Kuwait 100
5
70
5
20
Libya 100
10
50
0
40
Nigeria 100
5
20
15
60
Saudi Arabia 100
Negl
85
NegI
15
Venezuela 100
20
65
Negl
15
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quarter flows. Both countries continue to favor a high percentage of government
securities in their United States portfolios. Investment in Europe slackened in the
first quarter primarily as a result of a slower rate of placements in Eurodollar
deposits.
Outlook
Preliminary figures reveal that OPEC official holdings of foreign assets topped
$150 billion at midyear as oil receipts remained high through June. Normal seasonal
increases in imports by OPEC member countries, coupled with declining oil exports,
should reduce second half OPEC investment abroad by roughly 50 percent. By
yearend 1977, we expect foreign asset holdings to have reached at least $160 billion.
(Secret Noforn)
WORLD SUGAR: OUTPUT AND STOCKS TO REMAIN HIGH
World sugar prices have been depressed for more than a year-hovering at or
below production costs-and prospects are dim for any recovery in the coming year.
Current forecasts point to another record harvest and further additions to already
large exporter stocks. This bleak outlook for exporting countries, coupled with the
threat of US import restrictions, should spur a new international sugar agreement
(ISA) at the UNCTAD sugar conference under way in Geneva. We believe that an
agreement without some form of production curtailment would not solve the
present problems of excess supplies.
Record Production, Consumption, and Stocks
World production for the 1976/77 sugar year ending on 31 August is estimated
at a record 86.7 million tons-up 6 percent from the previous year. Continuation of
the current favorable weather should result in another record harvest in 1977/78.
Sugar cane acreage remains high despite low prices, which have forced reductions in
sugar beet acreage. However, favorable yields in the USSR and the EC should push
beet sugar production to or above last year's level. Global sugar production for
1977/78 is forecast at 87 million to 90 million tons by USDA and trade brokers.
Sugar consumption was up 4 percent in 1976/77, to a record 83.4 million tons.
We forecast consumption at 86 million tons in 1977/78, a slightly lower growth rate
than last year. Growth in LDC sugar consumption will continue strong; high prices
for coffee, tea, and cocoa will slow consumption growth in the developed countries.
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1 BAs of 31 August
196,8 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77'
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consumption at 86 million tons in 1977/78, a slightly lower growth rate than last
year. Growth in LDC sugar consumption will continue strong; high prices for coffee,
tea, and cocoa will slow consumption growth in the developed countries.
Sugar usage will be further dampened in the United States by aggressive
competition from high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), a lower priced substitute for
sugar in its industrial uses. Problems of excess capacity in HFCS production will
cause this new industry to press for a larger market share. The US industry faces
excess capacity of more than half a million tons with the addition of two new plants
this summer and another 250,000-ton plant scheduled to start this winter. Despite
capacity problems and low sugar prices, the industry has remained in reasonably
good shape because of low corn prices and the development of second-generation
HFCS, a more versatile form of the product.
World sugar stocks on 31 August 1977 stood at 23.7 million tons or 28 percent
of annual consumption. Most analysts believe a stock level representing 25 percent
of annual consumption is desirable for market stability; higher levels depress prices.
With production expected to exceed consumption again in 1977/78, stocks could
increase to a level equivalent to 30 percent of annual consumption.
Depressed Prices
Sugar prices, currently about 8 cents per pound f.o.b. Caribbean, have been at
or below production costs since August 1976. Except for a brief rally in April when
they reached 11 cents per pound, prices have fluctuated in a range of 7 to 9 cents.
We expect world prices to remain in this range over the next year unless there is (a) a
major crop failure and/or (b) a new sugar agreement with minimum price provisions
above this level.
Sugar Negotiations: Problems and Prospects
Despite months of preparatory conferences and meetings, producers and
consumers were unsuccessful in an April attempt to negotiate a new ISA. Failure
stemmed largely from lack of agreement over inventory issues; the conference was
dissolved with little discussion of other important questions. A July meeting in
London of 20 leading importers and exporters resulted in sufficient progress on the
sticky issue of reserves to warrant reconvening the conference this month in Geneva.
In addition- to determining size and method of financing of stocks a host of
other complex issues must be resolved before an ISA can be negotiated, including:
(a) the level of minimum and maximum prices, (b) the allocation and size of export
quotas, (c) the role of special trade arrangements, (d) the guarantee of access to
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Bilateral Sugar Trade Arrangements, 1977/781
Producing
Thousand
Country
Purchaser
Tons
Total
10,800
African-Caribbean-
Pacific Countries EC
1,300
Australia
Japan
600
Malaysia
300
South Korea
200
Singapore
60
Brazil
Algeria
350
Iraq
300
Japan
250
Portugal
100
United Kingdom
100
Finland
40
Cuba
USSR
2,600
East Europe
600
China and
Far East
350
Japan
300
Canada
150
Spain
100
Finland
90
Dominican
United States
350
Republic
Venezuela
100
Philippines
United States
1,350
Algeria
100
China
50
South Africa
Japan
350
Taiwan
Japan
150
South Korea
8p
United States
80
Thailand
Japan
300
China
100
'Government-to-government agreements, except for the
United States and Japan; the US and Japanese entries in
the table involve contracts between domestic refiners and
producing countries.
important markets, (e) the control
of nonmember imports and ex-
ports, and (f) the export role of the
European Community.
There appears to be a general
consensus among importers and ex-
porters on a 10-cent range between
minimum and maximum prices. Ex-
porters favor a price range of 13 to
23 cents; importers will probably
opt for a minimum of 10 or 11
cents. Export quota trigger points
within the negotiated price range
will also have to be set.
We expect negotiations over
export quotas and special trade ar-
rangements to be even more diffi-
cult than negotiations over prices.
Sugar exporters, particularly those
with expansion plans, will be anx-
ious to negotiate a large quota
under the agreement to ensure a
sufficient market for their likely
output. The quota issue will be a
source of considerable conflict, par-
ticularly in the case of Brazil, Cuba,
Australia, and the Dominican Re-
public.
The special trade arrangement
issue is causing concern among the
negotiators due to Cuba's reluc-
tance to divulge the terms and
amounts of various protocols with
Communist countries for the ex-
port of sugar. These latter countries
are generally free to reexport this
sugar on the international market.
Reexports could severely depress
world prices if not properly fac-
tored into an international agree-
ment. Special bilateral trade ar-
rangements account for about 40
percent of total world sugar trade.
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Exporters will probably press for guaranteed access to import markets and seek
to have controls established on the importation of sugar from nonmember countries.
Another area of concern among exporters is the role of the European Community in
an agreement. The EC, with 12 percent of world production and a policy of
subsidizing exports, has favored an agreement with buffer stocks and no export
quotas. If the EC does not modify its position and remains outside the agreement,
the Community's exportable surplus of 2 million to 3 million tons (roughly
one-sixth of free market volume) would prove a serious threat to stability of any
sugar agreement.
Chances appear to be better than ever that an agreement will be negotiated.
Exporters particularly need a pact to bolster sagging earnings at a time when
fundamental market forces point to continued low prices. In addition, the United
States hopes to negotiate an ISA to assist its troubled domestic producers; failure to
come up with an agreement could lead to US import restrictions.
After an Agreement
The obvious benefactors of a new ISA with, say, a minimum price of 10 to 11
cents would be sugar exporters. Consumers would be the immediate losers. Over the
longer term, consumers might benefit in the unlikely event that an ISA were
successful in dampening upward price movements.
A less apparent beneficiary of a new ISA would be the US high fructose corn
syrup industry. An ISA minimum price of more than 10 cents would provide an
umbrella for this new industry and increase sales of the corn sweetener.
We have estimated the effects on US sugar consumption of an increase in raw
sugar prices to a level of 13.5 cents per pound-the amount proposed in US
price-support legislation-under different price levels for HFCS. If we assume that
high fructose syrup prices rise in the same proportion as sugar prices, US sugar
consumption will fall by 240,000 tons annually, or 2.4 percent. If sugar prices rise
and HFCS prices remain at current levels, US sugar consumption would fall by
760,000 tons. HFCS quantities could rapidly expand because of considerable excess
capacity and low input costs.
A new ISA that boosts the price of sugar will increase the sugar surplus as
consumption is reduced. Trade estimates indicate that a reduction of 250,000 tons
in world sugar consumption will occur for every 1-cent increase in the price of sugar
above 9 cents; these estimates make no explicit assumption about the HFCS price.
We believe that sugar acreage will remain unchanged or even increase slightly with a
new ISA, resulting in expanded production and further downward price pressure.
15 September 1977 SECRET
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
Consequently, if prices are maintained near a 10- to 11-cent floor, large surpluses
are inevitable in the absence of some form of production curtailment. (Confidential)
Publications of Interest*
USSR: Production of Electronic Instruments
(ER 77-10483, August 1977, Secret)
This report analyzes the electronic instrument industry of the USSR. It
discusses the level and quality of output, its adequacy for domestic needs, the
organization of the industry, and foreign trade in the industry's products.
Communist Aid to Less Developed Countries of the Free World, 1976
(ER 77-10296U, August 1977, Unclassified)
This report, which analyzes trends in Soviet military and economic policy in the
Third World and details 1976 Communist activity in major developing natiors, is
the unclassified version of a similar classified report published in June 1977.
*Copies of these publications may be ordered by calling elephone 351-5203.
15 September 1977
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
Secret
Secret
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Prepared by
ER El 77-037
15 September 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document
directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar
CIA publications on a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
Project subscription service may purchase reproductions of specific
publications on an individual basis from:
Photoduplication Service
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
1. The Economic Indicators provides up-to-date information on changes in the
domestic and external economic activities of the major non-Communist developed
countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators is updated from press ticker
and Embassy reporting, so that the results are made available to the reader weeks-or
sometimes months-before receipt of official statistical publications. US data are provided
by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators are revised every few months. The most
recent date of publication of source notes is 20 April 1977. Comments and queries
regarding the Economic Indicators are welcomed.
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 A roved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
INDUS Y I(IAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
Japan
120 -
1973 AVERAGE 120
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
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United Kingdom
Italy
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
Percent
AVERAGE.ANNUAL
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
United States
JUL 77
0.5
3.7
6.4
10.4
United Kingdom
JUN 77
-5.1
0.1
-0.2
-5.6
Japan
JUL 77
-0.9
3.8
1.2
0.7
Italy
JUN 77
-7.2
2.7
3.3
-16.9
West Germany
JUN 77
1.8
2.2
3.6
- 6.6
Canada
JUN 77
0.3
4.1
4.5
1.4
France
JUN 77
3.2
3.6
4.1
-8.0
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 France
5
5.2
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United Kingdom
6
Italy (quarterly)
Canada
3.8
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
United States
AUG 77
6,926
7,517
6,750
United Kingdom
AUG 77
1,414
1,309
1.316
Japan
JUN 77
1.190
1.120
1,050
Italy
76 IV
177
699
776
West Germany
JUL 77
1,049
1,050
1,019
Canada
JUL 77
859
/51
810
France
JUL 77
1,180
950
1,039
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan, Italy and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-77, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates.
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DOMESTIC PRICES1 INDEX: 1970=100
Japan
West Germany
150
125
France
225
200
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United Kingdom
Italy
Percent
Change
f
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Percent
Change
from
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
rom
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
United States
AUG 77
0.6
8.5
7.2
5.7
United Kingdom
JUL 77
1.3
14.9
20.9
17.1
JUL 77
0.4
6.6
6.7
6.9
JUL 77
0.1
14.0
17.6
8.0
Japan
JUL 77
-0.5
7.7
1.1
-2.6
Italy
JUN 77
0.3
15.8
15.9
6.7
JUL 77
-0.3
10.5
7.7
0.7
JUL 77
0.8
13.2
20.3
14.3
West Germany
JUL 77
0
5.3
2.2
0.3
Canada
JUN 77
-0.2
10.0
9.6
2.2
JUL 77
-- 0.1
5.6
4.3
3.1
JUL 77
0.9
7.5
8.4
10.3
France
MAR 77
JUL 77
0.9
0.9
8.4
9.1
8.2
10.1
7.6
10.9
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PJ@MQz 00200030001-8
GNP'
Constant Prices
Constant Market Prices
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Annual Growth Rate
Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Latest
from Previous 1 Year
Previous
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier'
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier
Quarter
United States
Jun 77
- 0.2
3.2
4.1
3.3
United States 77 II
1.6 3.2 4.7
6.4
Japan
May 77
- 3.8
9.9
2.3
9.5
Japan 77 II
1.9 5.6 5.6
7.6
West Germany
Jun 77
0.9
2.4
4.4
-9.8
West Germany 76 IV
1.8 2.5 4.5
7.3
France
Jun 77
7.7
- 0.3
1.0
- 8.1
France 76 IV
0 3.9 4.9
0
United Kingdom
Jul 77
3.1
1.1
-1.7
3.9
United Kingdom 77 I
- 1.9 1.6 -1.3
-7.5
Italy
Mar 77
0.2
2.9
-0.3
16.3
Italy 76 IV
4.8 3.4 9.4
20.6
Canada
Jun 77
-0.7
4.1
-3.7
-8.7
Canada 76 IV
-0.6 4.8 3.4
-2.5
'Seasonally adjusted.
'Seasonally adjusted.
2 Average for latest 3
months compared with average for previous 3 mon
ths.
FIXED INVESTMENT'
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING'
Average
Non-residential; constant prices
Annual Growth Rat
e Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual Growth Rate
Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Change
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Latest
from Previous I Year
Previous
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier
Quarter
United States
Jul 77
0.6
7.5
7.6
8.1
United States 77 11
2.2 2.1 9.6
9.0
Japan
Jun 77
1.7
17.3
12.5
8.7
Japan 77 II
0.5 1.1 4.5
2.0
West Germany
77 II
1.7
9.5
7.5
7.2
West Germany 76 IV
3.3 1.1 5.0
13.8
France
77 I
2.3
14.1
13.9
9.5
France 75 IV
8.8 4.2 2.9
40.1
United Kingdom
Jun 77
0.3
15.7
3.4
3.6
United Kingdom 77 I
-0.6 0 3.4
--2.5
Italy
May 77
5.3
21.1
29.4
33.2
Italy 76 IV
10.6 3.1 15.7
49.6
Canada
Jun 77
1.3
11.5
10.7
11.7
Canada 76 IV
8.5 6.8 5.1
38.7
1 Hourly earnings (seasonally adjusted)
for the United Stat
es, Japan, and Canada;
hourly wage
rates for others. West German and
French data refer
to the beg
inning of the quarter.
Seasonally adjusted.
' Average for latest 3
months compared with that for previous
3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATES
Percent R
ate of Interest
1 Year
3 Months
1 Month
Representative ra
tes
Latest Date
Earlier
Earlier
Earlier
United States
Commerical paper
Sep 7 5.88
5.38
5.44
5.60
Japan
Call money
Sep 9 4.88
7.00
5.50
5.75
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
Sep 7 4.03
4.60
4.20
4.03
France
Call money
Sep 9 8.25
9.50
8.88
8.50
United Kingdom Sterling interbank loans (3 months)
Sep 7 6.56
11.23
7.83
7.20
Canada
Finance paper
Sep 7 7.50
9.50
7.22
7.38
Eurodollars
Three-month deposits
Sep 7 6.26
5.54
5.68
6.18
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 EXIRcj C or Release 2001/04/27: CIA-RDP
9 PTTl6 X00030001-8
US
National Cur
rency
Average
Average
Annua
l Growth Rote Since
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
P
ercent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Latest
from Previous
1 Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Month
Month
1970
Earlier Earlier
United States
Jun 77
-0.4
9.8
5.6
2.5
United States
Jun 77
-0.4
9.8
5.6 2.5
Japan
Jun 77
2.0
10.8
14.9
10.1
Japan
Jun 77
0.4
6.5
4.7 -1.0
West Germany
Jun 77
-0.5
11.3
11.6
5.4
West Germany
Jun 77
-0.5
4.5
2.0 -0.9
France
May 77
0.9
11.3
7.1
3.6
France
May 77
0.6
9.5
12.8 1.3
United Kingdom
Jul 77
0.6
10.6
12.9
11.1
United Kingdom
Jul 77
0.4
16.0
17.0 9.7
Italy
Mar 77
0.5 ?
11.3
16.9
16.7
Italy
Mar 77
- 1.1
16.8
22.9 17.1
Canada
Jun 77
0.51
9.8
8.6
12.3
Canada
Jun 77
-0.3
8.2
5.4 9.6
IMPORT PRICE
S
National Currency
OFFICIAL RESERVES
Average
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Billion US $
Percent Change
Latest
Month
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
1 Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
End of
Billion US $
Jun 1970
Earlier Earlier
United States
Jun 77
-1.4
13.5
7.9
2.1
United States
Jun 77
19.2
14.5
18.5 19.1
Japan
Jun 77
-0.8
10.9
0.3
- 14.8
Japan
Aug 77
17.8
4.1
16.3 17.3'
West Germany
Jun 77
-0.1
4.4
1.7
3.0
West Germany
Jun 77
35.1
8.8
33.3 34.7
France
May 77
-0.5
10.5
17.4
2.5
France
Jun 77
10.2
4.4
9.6 9.8
United Kingdom
Jul 77
0.7
19.7
15.7
6.6
United Kingdom
Jun 77
11.6
2.8
5.3 9.7
Italy
Apr 77
1 e0
21.1
13.7
15.1
Italy
Jun 77
9.7
4.7
5.2 6.4
Canada
Jun 77
0.5
9.2
9.0
7.4
Canada
Jun 77
5.1
4.3
6.0 5.1
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
'
BASIC BALA
NCE'
Current and
Long-Term-Capital Tr
ansactions
Cumulat
ive (Million
US $)
Latest
Cumulat
ive (Million US $)
Period Million US $
1977
1976
Change
latest
Period
Million US $
1977
1976 Change
United States 2
77 I
-4,317 -
4,317
540
-4,857
United States
No longer publis
hed Y
Japan
Jul 77
1,554
4,661
1,242
3,419
Japan
Jul 77
1,368
3,521
1,629 1,892
West Germany
Jul 77
-546
1,731
1,188
543
West Germany
Jul 77
-875 -2,039
1,196 -3,234
France
77 II
-438 -
2,101 -
2,052
-50
France
77 I
-1,354 -
1,354
-2,015 660
United Kingdom
77 I
-773
-773
-502
-271
United Kingdom
76 IV
-277
N.A.
-4,171 N.A.
Italy
77 I
-929
-929 -
1,413
484
Italy
76 III
779
N.A.
1,096 N.A.
Canada
77 I
- 1,624 -
1,624
1,911
287
Canada
77 I
-583
-583
882 - 1,465
' Converted to US
dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
Converted to US doll
ars at the current market rates of exch
ange.
' As recommended by the Advisory Committee on the
Presentation
of Balance of Payments
2 Seasonally adjusted.
Statistics, the Department of Commerce
no longer publishes a ba
sic balance.
EXCHANGE RATES
TRADE-WEIG
HTED EXCHANGE RATES'
Spot Rate
As of 9 Sep 77
Percent Change from
As of 9 Sep 77
Percen
t Change from
US $
1 Year
3 Months
1 Year
3 Months
Per Unit
19 Mar 73
Earlier
Earlier
2 Sep 77
2 Sep 73
Earlier
Earlier
2 Sep 77
Japan (yen)
0.0037
-1.47
7.46
2.10
0.38
United States
6.35
1.95
0.34
-4.38
West Germany
0.4302
21.49
8.07
1.27
-0.28
Japan
4.56
9.99
2.34
-1-17
(Deutsche mark)
West Germany
26.22
6.85
1.38
-4.42
France (franc)
0.2031
-7.84
0.04
0.39
-0.32
France
-7.68
-2.56
0.37
-7.21
United Kingdom
1.7425
-29.20
-0.54
1.34
0.05
United Kingdom
-29.01
-0.85
2.12
-4.69
(pound sterling)
Italy
-38.44
-7.26
-0.07
-4.19
Italy (lira)
0.0011
-36.05
-4.79
0.18
-0.18
Canada
-4.48
-9.29
-1.58
-0.77
Canada (dollar)
0.9315
-6.64
-9.00
- 1.49
0.03
Weighting is based
on each listed coun
try's trade with 16 other industrialized countries to
reflect the competitive
impact of exchange rate variations among
the motor currencies.
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World
Big '
Seven
Other
OECD OPEC ]
Com-
munist
Other
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD OPEC Z
Com-
munist
Other
UNITED STATES'
?
1974 .............
98,507
45,866
15,630
6,723
3,406
26,882
100,218
49,490
9,415
15,636
1,282
24,395
1975 .............
107,592
46,926
16,191
10,765
3,699
30,011
96,140
46,715
8,170
17,083
1,156
23,016
1976 .............
114,997
51,298
17,612
12,567
3,936
29,584
120,677
56,626
9,058
25,017
1,445
28,531
1st Qtr ........
27,360
12,184
4,088
2,751
1,144
7,193
27,319
12,884
2,226
5,570
327
6,312
2d Qtr ........
29,695
13,383
4,496
3,113
1,088
7,615
28,367
14,332
2,242
5,582
372
5,839
3d Qtr ........
27,437
11,944
4,073
3,106
850
7,464
32,452
14,285
2,228
6,952
389
8,598
4th Qtr ........
30,505
13,787
4,955
3,597
854
7,312
32,539
15,125
2,362
6,913
357
7,782
1977
1st Qtr ........
29,454
13,752
4,716
3,136
951
6,899
34,990
15,124
2,566
8,324
366
8,610
2d Qtr ........
31,673
14,282
4,707
3,389
816
8,479
37,907
17,059
2,578
8,673
411
9,186
JAPAN
1974 .............
55,610
18,591
6,862
5,450
4,367
20,340
62,074
18,755
6,219
19,970
3,684
13,446
1975 .............
556812
16,468
6,091
8,423
5,283
19,547
57,853
16,917
6,083
19,404
3,382
12,067
1976 .............
67,364
22,406
8,588
9,278
5,049
22,043
64,895
17,534
7,777
21,877
2,926
14,781
1st Qtr .s.......
14,429
4,848
1,827
1,872
1,289
4,593
14,832
4,083
1,696
5,213
671
3,169
2d Qtr ........
16,431
5,402
2,092
2,271
1,348
5,318
15,903
4,347
1,948
5,400
667
3,541
3d Qtr ........
17,542
5,897
2,272
2,476
1,135
5,762
16,818 '
4,497
2,137
5,406
747
4,031
4th Qtr ........
18,962
6,259
2,397
2,659
1,277
6,370
17,342
4,607
1,996
5,858
841
4,040
1977
1st Qtr ........
17,911
5,848
2,449
2,459
1,409
5,746
17,452
4,717
1,845
6,246
801
3,843
Apr & May .....
13,017
4,404
1,611
1,823
875
4,304
11,988
3,195
1,380
3,925
575
2,913
WEST GERMANY
1974
.............
89,365
30,820
36,431
4,066
9,473
8,575
69,659
23,878
25,504
9,211
5,153
5,913
1975
.............
90,181
28,331
36,406
6,776
10,629
8,039
74,986
27,085
27,761
8,239
5,526
6,375
1976
.............
101,980
33,443
41,811
8,245
10,310
8,171
88,211
31,281
32,632
9,720
6,718
7,860
1st
Qtr ........
23,467
7,918
9,519
1',710
2,430
1,890
20,147
7,130
7,577
2,189
1,502
1,749
2d
Qtr ........
24,570
8,215
10,110
1,838
2,421
1,986
21,571
7,704
8,133
2,223
1,625
1,886
3d
Qtr ........
25,147
8,003
10,272
2,235
2,510
2,127
21,791
7,565
7,894
2,575
1,699
2,058
4th
Qtr ........
28,796
9,307
11,910 ?
2,462
2,949
2,168
24,701
8,883
9,028
2,732
1,891
2,167
1977
1st
Qtr ........
27,804
9,281
11,609
2,307
2,156
2,451
24,084
8,465
8,828
2,578
1,270
2,943
Apr
...........
9,230
3,058
3,849
799
694
830
7,991
2,892
2,949
756
428
966
FRANCE
1974
.............
45,914
19,361
14,854
3,017
2,265
6,417
52,874
22,062
13,620
10,117
1,714
5,361
1975
.............
52,189
19,960
15,454
4,909
3,477
8,389
54,238
23,039
14,350
9,665
2,065
5,119
1976
.............
55,680
22,438
16,081
5,067
3,558
8,536
64,256
27,750
16,894
11,336
2,384
5,892
1st
Qtr ........
13,639
5,524
3,921
1,240
917
2,037
15,529
6,567
4,157
2,818
595
1,392
2d
Qtr ........
14,769
5,911
4,395
1,221
1,059
2,183
16,187
7,149
4,324
2,610
593
1,511
3d
Qtr ........
12,409
4,922
3,446
1,280
729
2,032
14,841
6,431
3,733
2,723
577
1,377
4th
Qtr ........
14,863
6,081
4,319
1,326
853
2,284
17,699
7,603
4,680
3,185
619
1,612
1977
1st
Qtr ........
15,323
6,250
4,540
1,392
847
2,294
17,885
7,494
4,840
3,056
600
1,895
Apr
...........
5,232
2,193
1,569
460
288
722
5,788
2,499
1,543
879
194
673
UNITED
KINGDOM
1974
.............
38,615
11,704
15,544
2,554
1,458
7,355
54,107
18,158
17,968
8,695
1,870
7,416
1975
.............
43,751
12,399
16,310
4,535
1,768
8,739
53,260
18,387
18,370
6,912
1,726
7,865
1976
.............
46,312
14,016
17,492
5,133
1,619
8,052
56,029
19,653
18,732
7,292
2,143
8,209
1st
Qtr ........
11,637
3,415
4,362
1,238
433
2,189
13,641
4,704
4,597
1,824
510
2,006
2d
Qtr ........
11,553
3,532
4,307
1,259
420
2,035
14,052
5,041
4,547
1,738
579
2,147
3d
Qtr ........
11,058
3,430
4,100
1,262
386
1,880
13,787
4,744
4,547
1,893
528
2,075
4th
Qtr ........
12,064
3,639
4,723
1,374
380
1,948
14,549
5,164
5,041
1,837
526
1,981,
1977
1st
Qtr ........
13,150
4,008
5,145
1,521
413
2,063
15,575
5,786
5,068
1,783
514
2,424
2d
Qtr ........
14,375
4,195
5,700
1,687
530
2,263
16,623
6,009
5,718
1,702
602
2,592
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
Developed Countries: Direction of Trade'
(Continued)
Big
Other
Com-
Big
Other
Com-
World
Seven
OECD
OPEC 2
munist
Other
World
Seven
OECD OPEC'
munist
Other
ITALY
1974 ............. 30,252
13,894
7,135
2,238
2,701
4,284
40,682
17,949
6,394
9,384
2,5143
4,442
1975 ............. 34,825
15,626
7,519
3,718
3,228
4,734
37,928
17,284
6,189
7,854
2,431
4,170
1976 ............. 35,364
16,698
8,276
4,027
2,592
3,771
41,789
18,585
7,755
7,831
3,000
4,618
1st Qtr ........ 7,398
3,513
1,713
756
597
819
9,092
4,063
1,708
1,689
608
1,024
2d Qtr ........ 8,705
4,157
2,040
951
623
934
10,716
4,786
1,918
2,092
744
1,176
3d Qtr ........ 9,398
4,505
2,191
1,057
657
988
10,335
4,497
1,860
2,035
792
1,151
4th Qtr ........ 9,863
4,523
2,332
1,263
715
1,030
11,646
5,239
2,269
2,015
856
1,267
1977
1st Qtr ........ 9,668
4,520
2,264
1,236
655
993
11,299
4,964
2,130
2,166
720
1,319
Apr & May ..... 7,480
3,435
1,719
981
540
805
8,523
3,829
1,561
1,605
523
1,005
CANADA4
1974
.............
32,390
26,827
1,970
626
851
2,116
32,408
25,965
1,508
2,613
343
1,979
1975
.............
31,778
25,885
1,753
827
1,255
2,058
34,050
27,181
1,579
3,126
311
1,853
1976
.............
37,746
31,415
2,048
930
1,270
2,083
37,922
30,383
1,661
3,171
363
2,344
1st
Qtr ........ 8,539
7,197
424
167
334
417
9,159
7,331
367
843
85
533
2d
Qtr ........ 10,015
8,441
496
183
345
550
10,290
8,175
421
954
95
645
3d
Qtr ........ 9,216
7,486
568
271
354
537
8,834
6,965
433
716
91
629
4th
Qtr ........ 9,976
8,291
560
309
237
579
9,639
7,912
440
658
92
537
1977
1st
Qtr ........ 9,672
8,201
524
248
231
468
9,640
7,850
391
742
87
570
2d
Qtr ........ 10,740
9,055
540
278
292
575
10,841
9,007
430
677
96
631
I Data are unadjusted. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
2 Including Gabon.
3lmport data are f.a.s.
4Import data are f.o.b.
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
FOREIGN TRADE BILLION US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
United States
14.0
12.0
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
United Kingdom
6.0
5.0
4.0
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
United States
JUL 77
1.0,150
70,105
65,646
6.8'
United Kingdom
JUL 77
4.675
31,142
25,155
23.8?"
12,476
85,019
67,199
26.5%
5,116
34,461
28,885
19.3%
Balance
-2,326
-14,914
-1,553
-13,361
6
651
45
468
37
169
22
3"
3
924
624
21
17
087
2611??
Japan
JUL 77
,
4,950
.
35,179
,
30,759
.
"
14.4%
Italy
JUN 77
,
3,505
.
22,216
,
19,096
16.3%
Balance
Balance
419
-591
-2,008
1,417
West Germany
JUL 77
9,657
66,317
56,282
17.8`,,
Canada
JUN 77
3,719
22,475
18,774
19,7??
?
8,384
54,989
46,344
18.7%
3,703
21,728
18,940
14.7
'0
Balance
1,273
11,328
9,938
1,390
5
322
461
36
32
821
11
111
France
JUL 77
,
5,480
,
38,287
,
33,873
.
"
13.0%
Balance
-158
-1,826
-1,052
-775
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
FOREIGN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
Japan
West Germany
INDEX: JAN 1975 =100
105
104
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974
1Export and import plots are based on five month weighted moving averages.
A-14
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
France
100
United Kingdom
104
102
105
103
Canada
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974 1975 1976 1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
MONEY SUPPLY'
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION'
Average
Average
Annual
Growth Rat
e Since
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier'
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Earlier2
Brazil
Jan 77
-3.1
35.5
28.2
49.6
Brazil
76 II
0.1
11.0
10.7
0.4
Egypt
Apr 77
1.2
18.6
23.0
45.3
India
Feb 77
3.5
5.5
6.9
18.7
India
Mar 77
1.8
12.3
20.5
16.6
South Korea
Jun 77
8.3
22.7
14.3
21.6
Iran
Mar 77
14.5
30.4
52.2
41.1
Mexico
Apr 77
0.6
5.6
0.4
17.5
South Korea
May 77
3.4
31.3
35.0
59.6
Nigeria
76 IV
0.2
11.3
9.0
0.7
Mexico
Jun 76
-0.3
17.0
16.6
19.6
Taiwan
Apr 77
1.9
14.9
12.7
-8.4
Nigeria
Feb 77
5.9
35.9
54.8
65.1
Seasonally adj
usted.
Taiwan
Mar 77
-0.2
24.4
21.2
24.0
'Average for latest 3 months compared with average for -
previous 3 months.
Thailand
Feb 77
4.0
13.6
17.1
12.9
' Seasonally adjusted
.
' Average for latest
3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
CONSUME
R PRICES
WHOLESALE
PRICES
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Percent Chan
ge
Ann
ual Growth
Rate Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Percent Cha
nge
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Brazil
Apr 77
3.3
26.6
44.4
India
Mar 77
0.6
8.2
9.1
Brazil
Apr 77
4.3
27.3
45.9
Iran
May 77
2.6
12.4
29.3
India
Mar 77
0.2
9.3
11.9
South Korea
Jun 77
1.0
14.6
10.1
Iran
May 77
1.8
11.0
22.2
Mexico
Jun 77
1.2
14.7
32.5
South Korea
Jun 77
0.8
16.6
9.1
Nigera
Jan 77
4.5
15.0
13.5
Mexico
Jun 77
1.0
16.5
50.9
Taiwan
May 77
0.4
10.4
3.0
Taiwan
May 77
0
9.2
4.4
Thailand
Mar 77
0.6
8.4
3.0
Thailand
Mar 77
0.9
10.0
2.7
EXPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
us $
Million US $
Average
Latest Month
-
Annual Growth R
ate Since
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Change
End of
Million US $ Jun 1970
Earlier
Earlier
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Brazil
Feb 77
5,873
1,013
3,667
5,139
Egypt
Apr 77
405
155
375
389
Brazil
Oct 76
-0.4
14.5
26.5
17.0
India
May 77
4,431
1,006
2,258
3,481
India
Sep 76
-3.8
9.2
6.4
-6.6
Iran
Jun 77
11,025
208
8,621
10,355
Iran
May 77
0
36.5
18.6
0
South Korea
May 77
3,519
602
1,911
2,872
South Korea
77 I
1.7
8.8
11.9
6.9
Mexico
Mar 76
1,501
695
1,479
1,533
Nigeria
May 76
-0.1
33.2
8.2
6.6
Nigeria
May 77
4,740
148
6,087
4,937
Taiwan
May 77
0.4
12.3
9.4
14.7
Taiwan
Apr 77
1,289
531
1,146
1,581
Thailand
Dec 76
2.0
13.3
13.1
77.7
Thailand
Jun 77
2,017
978
1,896
1,981
Approved or Release 172,171 i
- -
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
FOREIGN TRADE, f.o.b.
Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
Apr 77
Exports
- 1.2
38.6
13,904
11,244
23.7%
Apr 7'
Imports
-11.5
- 1.1
16,077
16,064
0.1%
Apr 77
Balance
-2,173
-4,821
2,648
76 IV
Exports
-97.9
-47.8
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
76 IV
Imports
-93.5
-54.7
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
76 IV
Balance
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Mar
77
Exports
77.7
11.2
6,496
5,612
15.7%
Mar
77
Imports
-18.2
3.2
5,650
6,595
14.3%
Mar
77
Balance
845
-982
1,828
Iran
May 77
Exports
32.1
14.4
34,022
28,883
17.8%
Mar 77
Imports
135.4
0.1
15,148
12,200
24.2%
Mar 77
Balance
14,710
12,956
1,754
South Korea
May 77
Exports
60.8
29.6
11,347
7,632
48.7%
May 77
Imports
106.6
27.4
11,661
9,562
21.9%
May 77
Balance
-313
1,931
1,617
Mexico
May 77
Exports
25.9
28.9
5,071
4,240
19.6%
May 77
Imports
-33.8
-23.1
7,665
8,728
12.2%
May 77
Balance
-2,594
-4,488
1,894
Nigeria
Apr 77
Exports
-25.0
5.2
13,706
11,320
21.1%
Dec 76
Dec 76
Imports
Balance
83.0
6.6
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Taiwan
May 77
Exports
2.6
17.5
11,519
8,305
38.7%
May 77
Imports
51.7
21.7
10,091
8,199
23.1%
May 77
Balance
1,427
105
1,322
Thailand
Jan 77
Exports
66.6
45.2
3,282
2,420
35.6%
Mar 77
Imports
26.3
21.9
4,198
3,748
12.0%
Jan 77
Balance
-283
-825
541
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 A Droved For Release 2001/04/27: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
AGRICULTURAL PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
$ PER BUSHEL
7.5
Kansas City No. 2 Hard Winter
200
:150
SOYBEANS
15 $ PER BUSHEL
7 SEP 1.82
30 AUG 1.76
AUG 77 1.81
SEP 77 2.79
1-7 SEP
1975 1976 1977
75 C PER POUND
World Raw New York No. 11
1.0 $ PER POUND
COFFEE
Milds Washed
300
1,500
0.5014 1,000
200
7 SEP 0.4930
30 AUG 0.5230
AUG 77 0.5335
SEP 76 0.7376
1973 1974 1975 1976
1-7 SEPII
1973 1974' 197-5 1976 1977
COFFEE/TEA
S PER METRIC TON 400 C PER POUND
TEA
1.7SEP
I
! 1 -- 1,0 50
1977
AUG 77 99.2 AUG 77 201.30
SEP 76 77.0 SEP 76 165.40
7 SEP 7.65
30 AUG 7.36
AUG 77 7.62
SEP 76 8,18
1.80
-50
Approved For Release 2001/04/27: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
37.5 $ PER HUNDRED WEIGHT
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens,
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Tex.
22 AUG 15.00
30.0 15 AUG 14.75
AUG 77 14.94
SEP 76 14.10
SOYBEAN MEAL
$ PER METRIC TON $ PER TON
FOOD INDEX
500
41 Percent Bulk, f.o.b. Decatur
7 SEP 143.50
30 AUG 145.00
AUG 77 140.58
SEP 77 178.86
11 0 80
$ PER METRIC TON $ PER POUND
7,000 0.5
NOTE: The food index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
151.75
1-7 SEP
II
1977
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 A roved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
COPPER WIRE BAR
140 0 PER POUND
LEAD
$ PER METRIC TON 45 0 PER POUND
3,000
7 SEP
54.6
60.6
7 SEP
30 AUG
51.8
60.6
30 AUG
AUG 77
52.7
63.9
AUG 77
SEP 76
66.2
74.6
2,500
35
SEP 76
1-7 SEPII 1,000
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
7 SEP 24.1 34.0
30 AUG 23.6 34.0
AUG 77 23.6 34.0
SEP 76 32.2 40.0
$ PER METRIC TON 650 0 PER POUND
2,000
7 SEP
495.0
540.8
30 AUG
501
9
550.5
550
.
AUG 77
511.8
550.4
SEP 76
360.1
35U.4
1,500
1-7 SEPII
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 0 150
125
100
1-2 SEPII
26.1 31.0
24.7 31.0
24.9 31.0
21.7 25.0
1-7 SEPII
1976 1977
$ PER METRIC TON
14,000
1-7 SEPII
1977
1-7 SEPII
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
125
225
100
200
75
175
50
150
25
125
()
inn
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79BOO457AO00200030001-8
ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
it per pound
53.00
49.17
48.00
41.00
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
359.36
339.27
327.00
290.33
IRON ORE
Non-Bessemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
21.43
20.51
18.75
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ per metric ton
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
58.50
58.50
42.00
44.50
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
t per pound
41.00
43.00
44.00
53.50
NICKEL
Composite US Producer
$ per pound
2.11
2.41
2.24
2.20
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
72.00
72.00
72.00
67.20
TUNGSTEN ORE
65 Percent W03
$ per short ton
9,375.92
10,534.69
7,502.70
5,241.58
MERCURY
NY
$ per 76 pound flask
115.00
173.20
116.90
138.10
SILVER
LME Cash
t per troy ounce
445.66
486.01
428.96
449.50
GOLD
145.99
148.23
114.14
144.09
LUMBER INDEX6
1-7 SEPII
1977
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS INDEX
300
1970=100
1Approximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the US.
3As of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite."
4Quoted on New York market.
5S-type styrene, US export price.
6This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as "bell wethers" of US lumber construction costs.
100 1973 1974
1-30 AUGII
1975 1976 1977
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79BOO457AO00200030001-8
 or Re A LQ C -
UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL SECRET
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
I In/ E -
rj
Vl l !Z
2
,"L 7 t
S
SA IQ?
6
r7f~ / d- 74"D
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks:
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70
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87 The Honorable Robert Carswell
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Hgs.USAF
(AF/INA)
Room 4A882, Pentagon
Mr. William Silvey
Office of Space Systems
Office of the Administrative Assistant
to the Secretary of the Air Force
Department of the Air Force
Room 4C1000, Pentagon
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FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
(2 cys)
(2 cys)
( 2 cys)
( 2 cys)'
a fS Mr. Henry C. Wallich
Member
Board of Governors
1 Federal Reserve System
cgs, ag 7 Mr. Edwin M. Truman
Director
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
Mr. John Reynolds
Counselor to the Director
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
Mr. Samuel Pizer,Adviser
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
`dc/3 Mrs. Cynthia Sutton
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
Mr. Sam Y. Cross
U.S. Executice Director
International Monetary Fund
5Dr. Raymond J. Albright
Vice President for Europe
Export-Import Bank of the U.S.
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C 15' Mr. James C. Cruse
Vice President for Policy Analysis
Room 1203
Export-Import Bank of the U.S.
811 Vermont Ave.,N.W.
2 7Mr. Stephen DuBril
Chairman
Export-Import Bak of the United States
811 Vermont Ave.,N.W,
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(2 cys) General Services Administration
Federal Preparedness Agency
Mr. John Lavery
Security Officer
Rocan 4302
18th & F Streets, N.W.
for: Helen Ramey,EGC
3 U O Mr. Raymond W. Bronez
Office of the Assistant Secretary for
Policy & International Affairs
Department of Transportation
-~~ The Honorable Dale Hathaway
Assistant Secretary
International Affairs and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Elmer Klumpp
Assistant to the Assistant Secretary
for International Affairs & Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
03 Mr. Howard W. Hjort
Director
Agricultural Economics
Department of Agriculture
0 Mr. Joseph W. Willett
Director
Foreign Demand and Competition Division
Economic Research Service
Department of Agriculture
3 Mr. David L. Hume
Administrator
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
309 Mr. Dawson Ahalt
Acting Chairman
World Food & Agriculture Outlook& Situation Board
Department of the Agriculture
Mr. George S. Shanklin
Acting General Sales Manager
Foreign Agriculture Service
Department of Agriculture
~0$ Mr. Brice Meeker
Assistant Administrator
Foreign Commodity Analysis
Foreign Agriculture Service
Department of Agriculture
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Washington, D.C.
1- Assistant Secretary for Energy & Minerals
Department of the Interior
1- Mr. Alexander Holser
Acting Administrator
Ocean Mining Administration
Department of the Interior
Room 3526
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(2 cys) National Defense University
Ft. Leslie J. McNair
lC 7 /~ Washington, D.C. 20319
Attn: Classified Library
Roam. 30
For Comandant of National War College
1- Dr. Robert W. Beckstead
Senior Economist
Industrial College of the Armed Forces
Department of Economic Studies
3 Mr. Marshall Westover
Federal Energy Administration
Room 2124
2000 M Street, N.W.
attn: Melvin Conant
-~ r y Department of Labor
Mrs. Ann Causey
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Bureau of International Labor Affairs
Room S-5214
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3I SJ Mrs. Hilda Scudder
OPIC
Roan 613
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for : Mr. John Gun
Roan 744
Department of Justice
Office of Management & Finance
Security Programs Section
Room 6531
Main Justice Bldg.
for: Mr. Richard Levine
Anti-Trust Division
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SENDER WILL CHECK CLASSIFICATION TOP AND BOTTOM
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OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
I
SA/ER
2
Rom 4F-19
3
Has.
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5
6
ACTION
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FROM: NAME. ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
PPG/R&D Rm. 7G-07 Hqs. x5203
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UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL
SECRET
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^ UNCLASSIFIED USE ONLY
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19 Sept 77
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
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a es 17 and 20
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Secret
NOFORN
25X1A
Pg. 17 -- Syria's Economy: Another Factor in Political Instability
Pg. 20 -- OPEC Assets Up Sharply in First Quarter
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
ER EIW 77-037
15 September 1977
Copy N?_ 468
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 SECRET
P7191566
SOURCE SURVEY
USE OF INFORMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by D.DI/Components. This is a machine
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/RRE Room
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Internal Politics
USSR
International Relations
Eastern Europe
Economics
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Military
China
Science.& Technology
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Geography
Near Eost.'N. Africa
Biography
South Asia
Africa
'Latin America
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supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion, Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
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International Relations Eastern Europe
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Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
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GENERAL
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Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Camp/R&E Room
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TOPICAL CATEGORY GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics USSR
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International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western Europe
Military Chino
Science & Technology Other Far East
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES:
TO BE COMPLETED BY R & E
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(21-22) (23-241 (25.23)
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 25X1 B
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Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Re ~IW1"bTb/9N5 CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
SECTION
NAME AND TELEPHONE NUMBER OF ANALYST
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CARD
TYPE
(1-2)
SURVEY NO.
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DATE PUBLISHED
PUBLICATION NUMBER
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FOR CRG ONLY
CIB PUBLICATION DATE
3-181
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TOPICAL CATEGORY
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western Europe
Military China
Science & Technology Other For East
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin Americo
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES:
TO BE COMPLETED BY R & E
CONTROL NO.
(21-22)
TOPIC
(29-24)
AREA
(25-28)
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 25X1 B
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
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 PUBLICATIONS SOURCE SURVEY
USE OF INFORMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
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supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (block) x 1724 (red).
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China
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Near East/N. Africa
South Asia
Africa
Latin America
 25X1 B
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Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 PUBLICATIONS SOURCE SURVEY
USE T P.
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each anulyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black) x I724 (red).
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69 NSA
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11 12 1 14 04 IM 11 IH IS TM 53 EIW
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CLASSIFICATION CONTROLS:
TOPICAL CATEGORY
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western Europe
Military China
Science & Technology Other Far East
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
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LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES: W66 W
TO BE COMPLETED BY R & E
CONTROL NO.
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(23.24)
(25-28)
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 25X1 B
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Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIQJ3QPoB00457A000200030001-8
PUBLICATIONS SOURCE SURVEY
USE OF INFORMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
SECTION I
NAME AND TEL Wx6202 25X1A
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TYPE
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(3-8) (9-121
PUBLICATION NUMBER
(13-23)
FOR CRG ONLY
CIB PUBLICATION DATE
(13-18)
MO YR MO DAY YR
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KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONISI-KIQ
DOCUMENT TYPE (15-16)
11
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TOPICAL CATEGORY
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Internal Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
X Economics Western Europe
Military China
Science 8 Technology Other For East
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography X South Asia
Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES: India
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Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000200030001-8