POPULATION AND MANPOWER STUDIES: PRESENT FACILITIES AND REQUIREMENTS OF THE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01143A000400010010-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 18, 2002
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: January 22, 1948
• Content Type: STUDY

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POPULATION AND MANPOWER STUDIES: PRESENT FACILITIES
AND REQUIt OITS OF THE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES
(Proposed Annex to Memorandum Addressed to the Director of CIA
from the Inter-Agency Committee on Population and Manpower
Studies).
In a memorandum addressed to the chiefs of the intelligence agencies
dated 9 October 1947, Admiral Hillenkoetter called attention to a letter
received from General Todd (G-2, WDGS) relative to population and manpower
studies. General Todd referred to duplication of effort currently involved
in the production of such studies in several government agencies, and proposed
a meeting of the interested agencies to discuss an integrated program of
work.
Meetings were held pursuant to this request on 2 December and 22 De-
cember 1947.* At these meetings the discussions indicated large gaps in
the present intelligence facilities and the need for the strengthening of
the intelligence services in this basic field. A survey of present re-
sources and needs revealed the following situation:
A. PRESENT FACILITIES
1. Within the Intelligence Agencies.
Army (G-2):: One senior analyst, dealing with general problems
of manpower (as distinct from foreign intelligence on military
order of battle).
State (OIR) One senior analyst, (international), and two
junior analysts (country specialists for Germany and the USSR).
Other intelligence agencies: No personnel specifically
assigned to the field of population and manpower.
be Coverage
Army (G-2). Specialized coverage is maintained on manpower
availabilities in countries of strategic importance, and the
unit prepares the manpower sections of the Strategic Intelli-
gence Digest.-
4E In the initial meeting only representatives of the intelligence agen-
cies were present. At the second meeting representatives were also present
from the Bureau of the Census and the National Office of Vital Statistics.
At this meeting a sub-committee was appointed to draft recommendations for
an integrated program. The sub-committee met on 5 January 1948, composed
of Dedrick (Census), Kirk (State), and Moore (NOVS).
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State (OIR). Consultation and the preparation of analytical
reports on population and manpower conditions affecting U. S.
foreign policy. Extensive files are maintained in the Division
of International and Functional Intelligence. These cover cur-
rent information on population distribution and change, occu-
pational structure, ethnic and racial composition, education and
literacy, migration, vital statistics, and the incidence of di-
sease. In the several regional divisions of OIR, population
and manpower materials are assembled and analyzed in accordance
with the specific requirements of the country analysts.
Other intelligence agencies have commonly relied on the
above-mentioned analysts in Army and State for information in
this field. State (with the assistance of Army) is responsible
for production of the sections relating to population and labor
force in the National Intelligence Surveys.
2, Other U. S. Government Agencies
The chief agency concerned is the Bureau of the Census, which
maintains three functions in this field:
a. Census Library Project.
In cooperation with the Library of Congress, the Census Bu-
reau supports a small office responsible for the preparation
of annotated bibliographies of foreign census materials. This
service now consists of one professional person supplied by
the Library and a secretary supplied by the Bureau of the Cen-
sus. In addition, a collection of foreign census publications
is maintained at the Bureau of the Census in Suitland, Maryland.
b. Foreign Census Research Section.
Now carried on by the half-time service of one analyst.
c. Promotion of international census plans and foreign train-
nng program.
Under the sponsorship of the Department of State the Census
Bureau maintains a training program for foreign statisticians
in census methods. This is carried on under the direction of
Mr. Calvert Dedrick, who holds the title of Coordinator of In-
ternational Statistics. Mr. Dedrick has also been very active
in promoting the :1950 census of the Americas and has traveled
widely in Latin Aineriaa, conferring with the heads of statisti-
cal offices in these countries with regard to these plans.
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The following other agencies have interests in the field,, though
they are not now directly engaged in it:
Department of Labor (Foreign Labor Conditions. Staff)
Department of Agriculture (Bureau of Agricultural Economics
and Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations)
Bureau of the Budget (Division of Statistical Standards)
Federal Security Agency (National Office of Vital Statistics)
3.
International Agencies.
The statistical service of the United Nations is now assembling
official statistics on population and vital statistics for all coun-
tries for which these materials are available. These collections
and publications will not, however, cover the detail incorporated
in census volumes and will be restricted to figures officially ap-
proved by the countries concerned. Thus, for example, figures re-
lating to the Soviet Union will be published only to the extent
that specific approval has been given by the Soviet Government.
Other inter~#~ational agencies have done and are contemplating
very little work in ,the field and expect to rely primarily on the
collections made by the United Nations,
B. REQTJI U CENTS.
1. Maintenance of a current inventory of human resources.
The widespread commitments of the United States throughout the
world have greatly increased the need for adequate international in-
telligence in the field of population and manpower. An adequate in-
ventory of the human resources of foreign countries is essential to
both strategic and political operations.
At the present time the agencies concerned receive and process
current intelligence (i.e., foreign service reports) relating to
their fields of interest. Summaries of available data are included
in the JANIS reports, the Strategic Intelligence Digest, and the
National Intelligence Survey. However, owing to the pressure of
other work, there has been no opportunity for the present staffs
to establish an integrated program for:
a. The systematic assembly and organization of basic sources in-
cluding o i o cia p ica ions and more fugitive sources.
Such basic collections are required to provide the very great
detail required for national defense and other purposes. Thus,
the Air Force, for example, requires minute details of population
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and occupational statistics in small areas. Such details are not
usually provided in foreign service reports and are often available
only in publications that would not normally be received in this
country.
b. Full country by-country evaluation of the validity and compara-
i ity of available pop ation and manpower data.
Adequate population data are unavailable for large sections of
the world. For at least half of the population of the world the
figures are seriously incomplete and defective. Thus, estimates
for the population of China vary by as much as 100 millions, and
the data for other large sections of Asia, Latin America, Africa,
and war-torn Europe are subject to a large margin of error.
Even where the data are reasonably accurate and complete, dif-
ferences in definitions and methods of collecting statistics make
accurate international comparison a highly technical task. The
proper evaluation of population and manpower data requires a de-
tailed and technical knowledge not available to the casual con-
sumer of such informzation.
2. Analysis of Population and Manpower Factors affecting United States
National Defense an Foreign Po icy.
The preparation of a good current inventory of foreign human re-
sources is justified only by its use in the direction and evaluation
of policy. Effective use of such materials requires the presence in
the intelligence agencies of personnel both technically trained and
familiar with the particular problems and interests of these agencies.
In Army (Military Intelligence) expert assistance on manpower
problems is required within the agency to participate in an inte-
grated appraisal of the war potential of strategic countries. The
foreign aid programs and growing world-wide concerns of American
foreign policy have :intensified the need within the Department of
State for personnel which combines technical competence with a
close knowledge of the problems of the Department.
C. PROPOSED PROGRAM
As noted above, a major gap in the present facilities is the absence
of a coordinated program (a) for the organized assembly of basic census
and other published materials and (b) for the systematic evaluation of
the validity and completeness of such materials.
This gap can best be filled through the establishment of a central
working unit, preferably in the Bureau of the Census. This agency
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already has the nucleus of organization and skilled personnel for the task.,
and it now maintains professional contacts with foreign statistical offices
through its training programs.
The basic collections and evaluations suggested do not require extensive
use of covert sources and therefore may appropriately be located outside
the intelligence agencies. The studies thus produced could be made avail-
able to meet the extensive need for such information in other U. S. govern-
ment agencies.
The establishment of such a working unit in the Bureau of the Census
would not eliminate the need for highly qualified personnel within the in-
telligence agencies. The studies of sucn a unit would be the raw material
but not the finished product required by these agencies. The effective use
of such basic information in meeting the specialized problems of national
defense and foreign policy requires intimate acquaintance with these prob-
lems best obtained within the agency concerned. At the same time, the
necessity for the use of covert sources, and for participation in oper-
ations of a confidential nature? in making adequate utilization of basic
information calls for the presence of technically qualified personnel with-
in the intelligence agencies.
In view of the above considerations the committee of representatives of
the intelligence agencies proposes the following measures:
1. That a central working unit be established in the Bureau of the Census
to maintain basic collection and evaluation of population and manpower
data for the use of the intelligence agencies and other interested
agencies of the United States government.
2. That this working unit should concern itself with
(a) the assembly and organization in a central location of all
available census and other published materials from foreign
countries.
(b) that the working unit should-make special country by-country
studies of the validity and comparability of the national
statistics in the field of population and manpower.
3. That a technical committee of representatives of the intelligence
agencies be set up to advise and consult with the Census unit as to
the needs of these agencies.
L4. That the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency urge the main-
tenance and strengthening of existing units in the intelligence
agencies to meet the specialized requirements of national defense
and foreign policy.
5, That the Director of Central Intelligence meet with the Director of
the Census and with the Chief of the Division of Statistical Stand-
ards? Bureau of the Budget, to discuss the implementation of such a
program.
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