PATTERN OF COAL TRAFFIC IN THE USSR IN 1953

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• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
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• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: December 31, 1956
• Content Type: IR

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PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
PATTERN OF COAL TRAFFIC IN THE USSR
IN 1953
CIA/RR PR-152
31 December 1956
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
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This material contains information affecting
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PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
PATTERN OF COAL TRAFFIC IN THE USSR IN 1953
CIA/RR PR-152
(ORR Project 43.673)
NOTICE
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORB and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
Coal, measured both in tons-originated and in ton-kilometers,
is the largest single item handled by Soviet transport. Information
on the flow pattern for coal and its demands on transport is of
major use in calculating the consumption of coal by industry and by
region and in estimating which sources of supply are likely to
receive priority in development; in estimating the economic cost
of separation between coalfields and consumers; and in assessing
the weaknesses, both economic and military, that are revealed
thereby.
The USSR has not announced comprehensive data on the movement of
major commodities between specific locations on its transportation
system since 1934. Consequently, the only means presently available
for obtaining information on the traffic pattern of major commodities
is through study of data on the geographic locations of production
and the major locations of consumption, supplemented by analysis of
scattered references in Soviet literature to the transport of major
commodities between specific points.
The estimates contained in this report were derived by this
method and must be regarded as preliminary. It is not possible to
present definitive data on the destination and routing of all Soviet
coal movements. However, the accompanying tables and the flow chart,
Figure 1,* provide a reasonably accurate estimate of the magnitude
of coal traffic for 1953, both by volume of flow and by direction.
The traffic movements calculated from regional demand and supply
agree well with spot reports by Western Observers on coal traffic
levels on particular routes, and they yield figures for traffic
volume which agree well with the announced total for the USSR.
* Following p. 2.
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CONTENTS
Summary and Conclusions
I. Means of Transport Used in the Distribution of Coal . ? ? ?
II. Volume and Pattern of Coal Traffic
Emt
1
4
5
A. Over-All Flow of Traffic
5
B. Intraregional Traffic
11
C. Interregional Traffic
11
III. Significance of Coal Traffic
12
Appendixes
Appendix A. Methodology
17
Appendix B. Source References
43.
Tables
1. Estimated Regional Flow of Coal Traffic by Rail in the
USSR, 1953
2. Origin and Termination of Interregional Coal Traffic by
Rail in the USSR, 1953
3. Distances of Selected Coal Traffic by Rail in the USSR,
1953
4. Estimated Shipments of Coal by Rail to Selected Cities
in the USSR, 1953
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5. Estimated Consumption of Coal in the USSR, by Region
and by Type of Use, 1953
6. Estimated Production of Coal in the USSR, by Producing
Area and by Type, 1953
Illustrations
faLt
27
29
Following Page
Figure 1. USSR: Interregional Coal Traffic, 1953 2
Figure 2. USSR; Regional Volume of Coal Traffic, 1953 . . 2
Figure 3. USSR: Regional Distribution of Originated and
Terminated Coal Traffic, 1953 6
Figure 4. USSR: Distribution of Intraregional and Inter-
regional Coal Traffic, 1953 6
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(ORR Project ).13.673)
PATTERN OF COAL TRAFFIC IN THE USSR IN 1953*
Summary and Conclusions
Transportation services carried approximately 319 million metric
tons** of hard and brown coal in the USSR during 1953, excluding
duplication because of double-counting of traffic. Nearly all the
traffic from mine to point of consumption was moved either entirely
or for part of the distance by railroad. The amount of coal hauled
by water transport in that year was almost insignificant and amounted
to about 2 percent of the tonnage. Motor transport was used almost
exclusively for local distribution purposes.
More than 95 percent of the 320 million tons of coal produced
during 1953 originated as traffic on the Soviet transportation system.
Coal traffic in statistical total exceeded production by a consider-
able amount; however, it is estimated to have been more than 350
million tons for all transport media combined. The excess consisted
of imports from Poland and Communist China plus double-hauling and
double-counting of tonnage associated with distribution and redis-
tribution and with traffic interchanges between rail and water
transport. The total consumption of coal in the USSR in 1953 was
327 million tons.
About 27 percent of all coal consumed in 1953 was used by the
transportation system. The railroads accounted for almost all of
this amount -- more than 26 percent of the total consumed -- and were
the largest single consumer of coal in the USSR. Coal was the largest
single item of traffic handled by the railroads, representing about
30 percent of the tonnage of freight originated and 28 percent of
the ton-kilometers performed. About 7.5 percent of all coal mined
in the USSR was used in transporting the remaining coal to market.
For very long hauls, 1 ton of coal was burned in the locomotive
firebox to carry 2 tons to industrial users.
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of OFR as of 15 August 1956.
** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
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About 60 percent of the coal sent by rail in 1953 moved in through
trains from one origin to one destination, at close to passenger-train
speeds, and most of the coal trains were heavier in weight than the
average mixed freight train.
Major points of origin and destination and the traffic flows are
shown in Figures 1 and 2.* If traffic double-counting and rail-water
interchange traffic are excluded, about 93 million tons of coal were
moved by rail between regions** in 1953, and about 226 million tons
were moved in intraregional hauls, most of it for fairly short dis-
tances. Of the 93 million tons of interregional rail traffic, about
33 percent (31 million tons) was hauled for extremely long distances
(more than 1,800 kilometers LTV) -- that is, about 26 percent
(approximately 25 million tons between 1,800 and 2,600 km and almost
7 percent (6 million tons) more than 2,600 km.
With the exception of about 6 million tons from the Pechora
fields, almost all coal in long-haul traffic originated in the Kuzbas
and Karaganda areas and terminated in the Urals or areas to the west
of the Urals. Of the 62 million tons of interregional traffic moving
less than 1,800 km, about half was Donbas coal moving to Region VII
(Central) and to the Volga and the Caucasus, one-eighth was Karaganda
coal for the Urals, and one-eighth was Polish coal for the western
USSR.
These major long-haul traffic flows were caused principally by the
imbalance between production and consumption of coal in the various
regions of the USSR. Half of the production of coal in 1953 is esti-
mated to have been west of the Urals, with the Ukraine producing
about 35 percent, the Moscow basin more than 11 percent, and the
Pechora field about 4 percent. The consumption of coal west of the
Urals, however, was about 58 percent of the total, so that large ton-
nages had to be shipped in from Poland, Karaganda, and the Kuzbas, in
hauls of great length.
Within European USSR, about 32 million tons of coal moved in long
hauls from the Donbas (which produced a surplus above the needs of the
Ukraine) to the Moscow area, the Volga, and the Caucasus, but more than
* Following p. 2.
** The term region in this report refers to the economic regions de-
fined and numbered on CIA Map 13702 (4-55), USSR: Administrative
Divisions and Economic Regions, January 1955.
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From
Poland
Leningrad
MOSCOW BASIN
PECHORA
BASIN
DON ETS
BASIN
KARAGANDA
BASIN
From China
(Heilungkiong
Province)
Widths of arrows are proportional to in-
terregional coal troff iv. Figures are given
in millions of metric tons.
GRAPHIC COMPAR SON OF INTERREGIONAL
COAL TRAFFIC WITH TOTAL USSR COAL TRAFFIC
Interregional coal traffic
(93.03 million metric tons)
Major coal producing area Total USSR cool traffic is 319.44 million metric
(not to scale) tons. All grades of cool are included.
Statute Odes
0 200 900 600 BOO 10.20
Ittlometers
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REGION 9
REGION 12
REGION 11
.1 111111 '
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Intraregional coal Interregional coat traffic
traffic equah exports plus imports
Total USSR cool traffic is
319.44 mRlion metric tons.
Total ropiasal coal traffic
in iniNions of metric tons
20665 1056
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60 percent of the Donbas coal was consumed close to the mines, so that
the estimated average length of haul of Donbas coal in 1953 was only
450 km. The declining average length of haul of Donbas coal is the
result of a more rapid increase in the consumption of coal in the
Ukraine and in Region VII than in the coal production of the Donbas.
The Donbas has had to abandon the supplying of some peripheral areas
and has reduced its percentage of participation elsewhere, although
it is still the principal supplier of coking coal in the USSR and
furnishes about 30 percent of the coal used on the railroads.
Production in both the Moscow basin and the Pechora field is
increasing rapidly but in 1953 did not keep pace with demand. Moscow
basin coal (all low-quality lignite) generally is used locally for
power, transport, and heating, but the much higher quality Pechora
coal is consumed almost entirely at great distances from the mines,
with an average length of haul of about 1,600 km. About 50 percent
of the output goes to the Leningrad area, and Pechora is scheduled
to supply the steelworks being built nearby.
The Urals produced 13 percent of the coal output of the USSR in
1953 but consumed 19 percent of the supply. Local coal is mainly of
grades unsuitable for coking. Large quantities of coking coal were
therefore shipped in from the Kuzbas and Karaganda, which also
supplied important amounts of power coal for the rapidly expanding
Urals industries. Coal imports to the Urals are still increasing,
and the steel industry is entirely dependent upon external coal.
The Kuzbas produced 14 percent of the coal output of the USSR
in 1953, and Karaganda produced 6 percent. Nearly half the Kuzbas
coal was shipped to the Urals or beyond, and about two-thirds of
the Karaganda coal went to the same destinations. The average
length. of haul from both these fields was approximately 1,300 km.
Miscellaneous smaller coalfields, mainly in Siberia, produced
about 17 percent of the 1953 output, with consumption largely con-
fined to nearby areas. Rail transport, power, and manufacturing
industries were the main consumers of this output as well as of
the imports from Communist China.
In spite of the extremely long rail hauls associated with some
of the coal traffic, the bulk of the movement is intraregional and
has relatively short hauls compared with other traffic in the USSR.
As a result, the average length of haul for all coal traffic in
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1953, which is estimated at about 660 km, is considerably less than
the average length of haul of 752 km for freight traffic of all types
in that year. Soviet literature frequently mentions the economic
waste involved in long-haul traffic, and the average length of haul
is far higher than in the US. But even though the USSR desires to
reduce or eliminate the long-haul traffic which appears uneconomical
from the transport point of view, it nevertheless will have great
difficulty in doing so. The planning effort that is required through-
out industry in order to reduce the long hauls in coal traffic is
prodigious, and there are substantial economic costs that will have
to be incurred through increasing the production of coal in one area
as opposed to another. Even after such expenditures have been made,
there is considerable doubt that the proper mix in coal quality to
satisfy all consumers can be provided through substantially shorter
hauls in coal traffic.
It is estimated, therefore, that coal traffic in 1960 will remain
almost as great a burden to Soviet transport as it was in 1953.
I. Means of Transport Used in the Distribution of Coal.
The total hard and brown coal traffic moved by rail, water, and
motor carriers in the USSR during 1953 is estimated at about 350
million tons.* This figure includes about 10 percent double-counting
because of the interchange of coal between one means of carriage and
another and the reshipment of coal sent to stockpiles. Using pro-
cedures intended to eliminate double-counting, it is possible to
account for the origin and destination of over 319 million tons of
coal traffic by Soviet region and by country of origin and desti-
nation in foreign trade. The amount of coal originated within each
* The overwhelming proportion of this figure is rail movement. The
rail total of 336 million tons is derived in Appendix A, Problem 1
(p. 17, below). The water total of 6 million tons is derived in
Appendix A, Problem 6 (p. 37, below). The remainder of 8 million tons
is a rough estimate of truck haulage from mines to consumers, based
on incomplete data. No attempt has been made to estimate local dis-
tribution by road transport within cities from central stockpiles to
local consumers.
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region is derived from the locations of coal mining basins and from
data available on production. 1/* The destination of coal is derived
from the major centers of consumption within each region, as well as
from the regions themselves, taking account of available data on coal
requirements by major industries and on actual movements.
It is estimated that local and mine consumption of coal that
required no rail or water transport amounted to only about 11.5 mil-
lion tons in 1953, and that over 95 percent of the total coal output
appeared in rail and water transport statistics, plus all the coal
imported. Water transport is estimated to have handled only about
6 million tons, and most of this was joint rail and water movement.
So large was the 1953 rail traffic in coal that between 20 and 25
percent of total daily carloadings in the USSR were coal, .g/ and --
because of the heavy loading of cars in transporting this commodity --
30 percent of total tons-originated by the rail lines was coal. 2/
This traffic produced 28 percent of the total rail ton-kilometers. LI-/
Trucks carried only a small proportion of the total ton-kilometers of
coal hauled in the USSR in 1953.
II. Volume and Pattern of Coal Traffic.
A. Over-All Flow of Traffic.
The estimated regional flow of coal traffic by rail in the
USSR in 1953 is shown in Table 1.** These estimates eliminate dupli-
cation because of double-hauling in shipments to and from stockpiles
and because of traffic interchange between rail, highway, and water
transport. Traffic originating as Soviet coal production or as
imports from abroad and terminating as Soviet consumption or as
exports abroad amounted to over 319 million tons. As shown in Figures
3 and 41*** approximately 52 percent of all coal traffic originated
in the area west of the Urals, and the remaining 48 percent in the
Urals and regions to the east. Nearly 58 percent of the total traf-
fic terminated west of the Urals. The imbalance between supply and
demand in European USSR necessitated coal shipments from Kazakhstan
and West Siberia at great economic cost. However, the larger part
of total traffic -- approximately 70 percent, or 226 million tons --
**
***
For serially numbered source references, see Appendix B.
Table 1 follows on p. 6.
Following p. 6.
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Table 1
Z3
Z3 Estimated Regional Flowof Coal Traffic by Rail in the USSR
1953 4C
4C CD
CD
711
711 Exports 2/ Imports .:..a/
Traffic Originated Traffic Terminated Intraregional C)
C)
-N -N
Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent PO
PO
C) Economic Region or Country Metric Tons of Total Metric Tons of Total Metric Tons of Total Metric Tons of Total Metric Tons of Total (1)
ET Ia (Northwest) 0.8 0.2 10.8 3.4 0 10.0 10.7 0.8 0.4 A)
(1)
0)
01 Ib (North) 11.2 3.5 3.9 1.2 7.3 7.8 o 3.9 1.7 Cl)
(1) ha (Baltic) 0 0 4.0 1.2 o 4.0 4.3 0 o C1)
-& IIb (Belorussia) 0 o 4.0 1.3 o 4.0 4.3 o o _&
QD
co III (South) } 117.2 36.7 88.3 27.6 31.8 34.4 3.o 3,2 85.4 37.7 QD
CID IV (Southeast) QD
CID V (Transcaucasus) 2.2 0.7 5.5 1.7 o 3.3 3.6 2.2 1.0 ......
CD VI (Volga) o 15.5 4.8 0 15.5 16.6 o o QD
SP VII (Central) 35.2 11.0 53.3 16.7 4.1 4.4 22.2 23.9 31.1 13.7 ......
C5 VIII (Urals) 40.6 12.7 60.2 18.9 2.6 2.8 22.1 23.8 38.0 16.8 K3
Is3 IX (West Siberia) 43.6 13.7 25.8 8.1 20.1 21.6 2.4 2.6 23.4 10.4 ..
.. Xa (Kazakhstan) 21.1 6.6 10.7 3.3 14.0 15.0 3.6 3.8 7.1 3.1
0 lb (Central Asia) 5.2 1.6 5.0 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 4.2 1.8 0
XI (East Siberia) 18.4 5.8 15.5 4.9 3.2 3.4 0.3 0.3 15.2 6.7
.1.11P '
XII (Far East) 15.5 4.8 15.9 5.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 15.1 6.7 .'
*1 PO
,...ici
0
0 Poland 7.9 2.5 o 7.9 8.5 Q
China 0.5 0.2 0 0.5 0.5 o --.1
LI
--.1 QD
co Japan 0.1 0.1 0.1
1 Central and Western Europe 0.9 0.3 0.9 1.0 CD
CD _&
_&
100.0 100.0 CD
CD Total 319.4 319.4 100.0 93.0 93.0 100.0 226.4 100.0 C.0
C.0 GO
GO >
)). a. Coal moving between regions and in foreign trade. CD
CD CD
CD _&
_& IV
IV CD
CD CD
CD CD
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CD CD
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0 --.1 S-E-C -R-E-T
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REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ORIGINATED AND TERMINATED COAL TRAFFIC, 1953
FIGURE 2
USSR
In Percent of Total)
2040 30 so . -0 ..8C
e,.....,..
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, I ._... ,,-.... \ .
' ... -
60
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I 7' 1-1 (
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1883
CENTRAL AND
WESTERN EUROPE
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Traffic
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Terminated
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CHINA ,---- \

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REGIONAL
FIGURE 3
USSR
DISTRIBUTION OF INTRAREGIONAL AND INTERREGIONAL COAL TRAFFIC, 1953
(In Percent of Total)
20 40 SC 120 160 180
?Z/.. ''' '' \
.. N. ? - , . . ft -C
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Interregional
Traffic
\ CHINA ,---'
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7 /
B oundaries ore not necessarily those `
0 250 500 1000
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1
recogmzed by the U S Government. / ?"??Y
i-e .- 1.-.
, statu'te Miles
40
i
60 80 120
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was intraregional traffic which originated and terminated within a
single region of the USSR. Thirty percent, or 93 million tons, moved
between the regions and in foreign trade.
Most of the 226 million tons of intraregional traffic during
1953 moved for relatively short distances from the mines to nearby
industrial establishments and population centers. As shown in
Figure 2,* intraregional traffic was heavier in the part of the
country west of the Urals. Nearly 55 percent of the total originated
and terminated here; the remaining 45 percent represented intra-
regional traffic in the Urals and the regions to the south and east.
The origin and termination of interregional coal traffic by
rail in the USSR are shown in Table 2.** These data when compared
with the computed distances for selected coal traffic by rail in the
USSR shown in Table 3*** and with source data on the movement of coal
traffic indicate the vast distances that some of the interregional
coal traffic must move. About one-third (31 million tons) of the 93
million tons of interregional coal traffic was hauled over 1,800 km --
that is, about 26 percent (approximately 25 million tons) was hauled
between 1,800 and 2,600 km, and almost 7 percent (6 million tons) was
hauled over 2,600 km.
These major long-haul traffic flows result principally from
the imbalance between production and consumption of coal in the
various regions and to a lesser extent from the need to provide coal
of appropriate quality to the various parts of the country. With the
exception of about 6 million tons originated in the Pechora fields of
Region Ib (North) and destined to Region Ia (Northwest) and Region
VII (Central), almost all coal in long-haul traffic originated in the
Kuzbas in Region IX (West Siberia) and the Karaganda area in Region
Xa (Kazakhstan) and terminated in Region VIII (Urals) or in the areas
to the west of the Urals. Of the 62 million tons of interregional
traffic which move for less than 1,800 km, about half was Donbas coal
from Region III (South) and Region IV (Southeast) moving to Region
VII or Region VI (Volga), one-eighth was Karaganda coal for the
Urals, one-eighth was Polish coal for the western USSR, and the
remainder consisted of widely scattered minor shipments.
**
***
Following p. 2, above.
Table 2 follows on p. 8.
Table 3 follows on p. 9.
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>
"0
7:3 Table 2
Z3 Origin and Termination of Interregional Coal Traffic by Rail in the USSR 2/
4C
CD 1953
a
Million Met'ric Tons
-In
Total
Receipts
9.95
4.00
4.02
2.95
M
3
2
22.14
2.40
3.57
0.80
0.33
0.82
0.14
0.90
23.03
0
Economic
Region or Country of Origin
VIII IX Xa
Xb
1.07
1.07
XI
0.40
2.40
0.40
3.2U
XII
Poland
Communist
China
PP Economic Region or Country
CD of Destination Ia
Ib
ha lib III and IV V
VI VII
CD
AD Ia (Northwest)
OD
CD Ib (North)
Ila (Baltic)
-&
Iii (Belorussia)
QD
to III (South) 1.
CID IV (Southeast)
--...3.30
V (Transcaucasus)
co VI (Volga)
a VII (Central)
ha VIII (Urals)
.. IX (West Siberia)
? Xa (Kazakhstan)
L. Xb (Central Asia)
> XI (East Siberia)
30 XII (Far East)
0 Japan
10 Central and Western Europe
-.4
QD
CD Total shipments
6.00
1.27
7.27
2.00
1.10
1.00
11.50
11.85
0.20
0.90
31.85
0.45
0.80
1.02
1.15
0.69
4.11
2.60
2.60
4.00
13.64
2.50
20.14
3.30
2.00
8.10
0.60
14.00
0.25
0.42
0.14
0.39
1.50
2.10
2.00
1.80
0.50
7.90
0.08
0.50
-a. a. See Appendix A, Methodology.
CD
CID
Ca4
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
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Table 3
Distances of Selected Coal Traffic by Rail in the USSR W
1953
CD
(7)
a)
C,)
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
. .
0
CD
6
CD
(A)
63
From
To
Distance
(Kilometers)
Economic Region
Coal Basin
City
Economic Region
City
Ib (North)
Ib (North)
Ib (North)
Ib (North)
Ib (North)
III (South)
III (South)
IV (Southeast)
IV (Southeast)
III (South)
III (South)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VII (Central)
VII (Central)
Pechora
Pechora
Pechora
Pechora
Pechora
Donbas
Donbas
Donbas
Donbas
Donbas
Donbas
Urals
Urals
Urals
Urals
Moscow
Moscow
Vorkuta
Vorkuta
Vorkuta
Vorkuta
Vorkuta
Artemovsk
Artemovsk
Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy
Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy
Artemovsk
Artemovsk
Kizel
Kizel
Kizel
Karpinsk
Tula
Tula
Ia (Northwest)
'VII (Central)
VII (Central)
Ia (Northwest)
Ia (Northwest)
III (South)
Ia (Northwest)
VII (Central)
VI (Volga)
VII (Central)
III (South)
VIII (Urals)
VII (Central)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VII (Central)
VII (Central)
Kotlas
Kirov
Gor'kiy
Leningrad
Vologda
Dnepropetrovsk
Leningrad
Gortkiy
Kazan'
Moscow
Kiev
Molotov
Moscow
Magnitogorsk
Sverdlovsk
Moscow
GorTkiy
1,100
1,479
1,936
2,288
1,738
315
1,633
1,385
1,629
1,034
695
244
1,672
1,153
436
236
661
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Table 3
of Selected Coal Traffic by Rail in the USSR
1953
(Continued)
From
Economic Region
PPn/5/PP
(West Siberia)
(West Siberia)
(West Siberia)
(West Siberia)
(West Siberia)
(West Siberia)
(West Siberia)
(West Siberia)
X (Kazakhstan and Central Asia)
X (Kazakhstan and Central Asia)
X (Kazakhstan and Central Asia)
X (Kazakhstan and Central Asia)
X (Kazakhstan and Central Asia)
X (Kazakhstan and Central Asia)
X (Kazakhstan and Central Asia)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
Coal Basin
Kuzbas
Kuzbas
Kuzbas
Kuzbas
Kuzbas
Kuzbas
Kuzbas
Kuzbas
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Siberia
Siberia
City
Prokop'yevsk
Prokop'yevsk
Stalinsk
Stalinsk
Stalinsk
Stalinsk
Stalinsk
Stalinsk
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Karaganda
Cheremkhovo
Cheremkhovo
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To
Economic Region
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VI (Volga)
VII (Central)
VI (Volga)
VII (Central)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VIII (Urals)
VI (Volga)
VI (Volga)
VII (Central)
VII (Central)
XI (East Siberia)
XII (Far East)
City
Sverdlovsk
Magnitogorsk
Sverdlovsk
Magnitogorsk
Kuybyshev
Moscow
Kazan'
Gor'kiy
Magnitogorsk
Chelyabinsk
Sverdlovsk
Kuybyshev
Kazan'
Gorlkiy
Moscow
Chita
Skovorodino
Distance
(Kilometers)
1,956
2,248
1,973
2,289
2,878
3,792
2,838
3,281
1,200
1,311
1,360
2,315
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2,732
3,211
1,182
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B. Intraregional Traffic.*
Of the 226 million tons of coal in intraregional hauls during
1953, Regions III (South) (the Ukraine and Moldavia) and IV (South-
east) -- which for convenience in presentation are regarded as one
unit -- had more than 85 million tons, or about 38 percent of the
total. Regions VIII (Urals), with 38 million tons, and VII (Central),
with 31 million tons, had about 17 and 14 percent, respectively, of
the total. Region IX (West Siberia), with over 23 million tons
(10 percent), and Regions XI (East Siberia) and XII (Far East), with
about 15 million tons each (7 percent), also have large intraregional
coal shipments. Three of the remaining 5 of the 15 regions --
Regions ha (Baltic), lib (Belorussia), and VI (Volga) -- have no
appreciable intraregional traffic in coal and are dependent on ship-
ments from other regions. Regions Ia (Northwest) and V (Trans-
caucasus) have some coal production and accordingly some intraregional
traffic but are primarily dependent on coal shipments arriving from
other regions.
C. Interregional Traffic.*
All of the regions of the USSR** both exported and imported
coal to and from other regions or in foreign trade, with the exception
of Regions Ia (Northwest), Ib (North), ha (Baltic), ITh (Belorussia),
V (Transcaucasus), and VI (Volga). Region VII (Central) and Region
VIII (Urals) are large importers of coal, with about 22 million tons
each. Region VI and Region Ia are also important importers of coal,
with about 15.5 and 10 million tons, respectively. The other regions
import small amounts ranging from 4 million to a few hundred thousand
tons.
Regions III (South) and IV (Southeast) are the principal
regional exporters of coal, with a combined total of about 32 million
tons, followed by Region IX (West Siberia) with approximately 20
million and Region Xa (Kazakhstan) with 14 million tons. Region Ib
exports abput 7 million tons, and the 5 other exporting regions ship
small amounts ranging from 4 million to a few hundred thousand tons.
* See Table 1, p. 6, above. See also Figure 4, following p. 6, above.
** Data on coal traffic, by region, are presented in Tables 1 and 2,
pp. 6 and 8, respectively, above. See also Figure 2, following p. 2,
above.
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Foreign trade in coal during 1953 amounted to slightly- less
than 10 million tons, which for the purpose of traffic analysis is
included in the 93 million tons of interregional hauls. Imports
from Poland and Communist China were 8.4 million tons, and exports to
Japan and to Central and Western Europe were 1.04 million tons.
III. Significance of Coal Traffic.
The USSR depends on coal foram estimated 65 percent of its
energy g and is expanding coal production at such a rate as to make
it certain that coal will be the main supplier of energy for some
time to come. // The country has very large coal resources, but
except in the Donbas the better quality deposits and the largest
supplies are generally distant from the main centers of population
and industry. This situation, plus the need to blend different
types of coal for most efficient consumption, has made it necessary
to move large tonnages of coal for long average distances. Because
of the poor geographic location of waterways in relation to needed
coal movements and because of shipment delays caused by ice or low
water, about 95 percent of the coal movement (as measured in ton-
kilometers) is by rail. Waterways and trucks divide the remainder,
but the latter, in practice, still are confined to short hauls from
mines. Local cartage (distribution from railheads to local consumers)
is not considered in this report.
Soviet coal traffic is dominated by the fact that most industry
and most coal consumption are concentrated in the sector stretching
from Leningrad southeast to Moscow and then east through the Volga
basin to the central and southern Urals, but most coal production is
well outside this major industrial zone. g Furthermore, the coal
produced in the Moscow basin and the Urals is of low quality, not
suitable for metallurgical coke and generally of low calorific
value.
This situation causes certain major long-distance movements, as
follows: (1) from the Donbas north and northeast to Region VII
(Central) and Region VI (Volga); (2) from the Kuzbas west to the
Urals, with large and increasing tonnages going even farther west
to Moscow and vicinity; (3) from Karaganda northwest to the Urals,
the Volga, and Region VII; and (4) from Pechora southwest to
Leningrad and the northern industrial centers. 12/ Donbas produc-
tion has been inadequate in recent years to meet the needs of the
Ukraine and simultaneously to furnish all the coal required in
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neighboring regions. 11/* Long-haul shipments therefore have had to
be increased from the Kuzbas, Karaganda, and Pechora. These shipments,
although still relatively snail in total tonnage compared with that of
all the coal shipped, are quite important in ton-kilometers and impose
an appreciable burden on the rail system. They cause the average
length of rail haul for coal (686 km in 1955) 14/ to be greater in the
USSR than in any other country and about 40 percent above the apparent
US average. This has been a matter for much concern in Soviet adminis-
trative circles and has caused drastic steps to be taken in the effort
to increase coal output in the Ukraine.
The importance of reducing the average length of haul for coal,
or of finding substitutes for it, is shown by the fact that in 1953
coal made up 30 percent of the tons-originated on Soviet rail lines
and 28 percent of the total ton-kilometers of haul performed. Coal
was much the largest item handled. The relative share of coal in
total rail traffic was about the same in 1954 and 1955 as in 1953. D./
In spite of efforts which are being made to reduce the transport
burden by increasing production in the coalfields of European USSR,
by shifting railroads from coal-burning locomotives to diesel and
electric traction, by using more oil and gas, and by developing
hydroelectric power, it seems likely that in 1960, coal still will
be about as great a proportional burden to the rail lines as it was
in 1953. Judging from recent performance and Soviet announcements
of plans for 1960,1)1/ it is believed that the actual volume of coal
traffic by rail will increase about 80 percent in tons and 70 to 75
percent in ton-kilometers by 1960 above that in 1953. The rail
movement of coal should at least keep pace with the scheduled increase
for all rail traffic combined.
The USSR has planned a reduction in the average length of haul for
coal to 635 km in 1960, 12/ but the figure may be slightly optimistic
and may have been issued to spur Soviet planners and managers to
greater efforts. Because of the failure of similar long-range traf-
fic plans in the past, it is believed that a figure of about 650 km
for 1960 is more likely. Some of the considerations behind this
assessment follow.
* See pp. 34 and 36, below.
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First, the expansion of coal production in fields near consumers
is counterbalanced by other factors which tend to keep hauls long.
It appears certain that total coal production in European USSR will
expand in 1953-60, but Donbas production probably will not expand at
as fast a rate. The Donbas has, in general, smaller seams, more
difficult mining conditions, and higher costs than are found in the
Kuzbas and Kazakhstan fields, and expansion per unit of output should
be less costly in these other coalfields than in Donbas. Moscow basin
lignite output may increase at a rate slightly greater than the national
average, but any shortening of the average length of haul brought about
by its use would be counterbalanced by the increased length of haul
caused by a larger differential demand for the much better quality
Pechora output, which will be needed in quantity by the new Cherepavets
Steel Works. Similarly, increases in local coal output in the Urals
can be expected to be counterbalanced by increased local demand, so that
Urals industry must still import coal from the Kuzbas and Kazakhstan.
A slight reduction in average length of haul is to be expected, however,
from rail construction now taking place. This will reduce distances
from the Kuzbas to the Urals by 5 to 10 percent.
Second, although the plan to shift rail traction from the 1955
figure of about 14 percent. of traffic handled by diesel and electric
locomotives lY to a 1960 goal of about 45 percent la/ is likely to
be carried out and would be very important in freeing more power
coal for industry, it should have little effect on the average length
of haul. The railroads used in 1953 an estimated 26 percent of all
coal produced, 1..g./* and by 1960 this should be reduced to about 19
percent. But coal not used by the railroads is merely diverted to
other purposes -- it is still !shipped -- and the only distance saving
likely is the difference between the average length of haul for coal
now used on particular locomotive runs and the average length of haul
for such released coal sent to industrial consumers. Kuzbas coal
now being diverted from use on the Omsk Railroad probably will go a
much greater distance to industrial consumers in the Urals, and
Donbas coal to be released may also have a greater length of haul.
Karaganda coal so diverted may move a shorter average distance. The
net result in average distance moved and in rail ton-kilometers prob-
ably is a standoff. The shift away from steam locomotives is
exceedingly important from the point of view of industrial development,
however, because the saving of coal is almost equal to the average
annual increase in coal output. That is, shifting the Soviet rail-
roads to 45-percent diesel and electric traction could step up the
* See p. 34, below.
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tempo of Soviet industrial development by nearly I year. This is
probably an important reason for the dieselization and electrifi-
cation program.
Third, the development of oil and gas production and the
increase in power output from hydroelectric stations do not appre.ci-
ably affect the average length of haul for coal, although they
are of great significance for industrial development. The demand
for coal now exceeds the supply and should continue to do so for
some years; so a shift locally to oil or another energy source
merely means the diversion of coal to another customer. An even-
tual reduction in average haul is to be expected, however, from the
development of power-line grids, which utilize coal burned at the
mines as a source of power.
Fourth, 20 percent of the cost of coal to the Soviet consumer at
present is made up of freight charges. 22/ Because coal is often
carried at charges below the cost of hauling, 22/ transport is an
even more important factor than coal in Soviet economic planning.
This may help explain the effort to build up industry near the
coalfields of Siberia and Kazakhstan. gli It is only in this way
that the average length of haul for coal can be brought down even-
tually to near the level of the US, in which the average annual
length of coal haul is 490 km compared with 686 km (1955) in the
USSR.* ?
Regardless of efforts to cut down the average length of haul of
coal, the USSR still faces the almost insurmountable problem of
supplying the right grade of coal where needed. It is at this point
that the Soviet transport system is likely to be continually vul-
nerable for the foreseeable future. For instance, the metallurgical
works in the Urals require millions of tons of coke. Almost all is
made from coal brought in from the Kuzbas or Karaganda, because
local coal is not of suitable quality. Movement depends entirely
on continued operation of two railroads. Similarly, the new
Cherepovets Steel Works near Leningrad will be dependent on long-
distance movement of Pechora coal for its coke. Because the
* The US is more an oil-using than a coal-using nation and moves
oil mainly by pipeline or tanker rather than by rail. The ton-
kilometer cost for pipeline or tanker movement is much lower than
for rail carriage.
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local coal supply of Moscow is inadequate in quantity and poor in
quality, it must be supplemented by millions of tons brought in
from the Kuzbas to the east, from the Donbas to the south, from
Poland to the west, and from Pechora to the northeast. The move-
ments involve tremendous distances of coal haul and cause great
economic loss. The major receipt, from the Donbas, moves 1,100 km;
and the second largest, from the Kuzbas, moves about 3,800 km. This
is as though Washington, D.C.,.got much of its coal from Central
Florida and from beyond the Rocky Mountains, with some coming from
mines on Hudson Bay.
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APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
Problem 1: Estimating Total Coal Traffic by Rail.
Total coal traffic by rail in the USSR during 1953 is estimated at
about 336 million tons, including some double-counting of tonnage
handled twice by the rail lines between the mines and the consumer.
There was an average length of haul of slightly more than 662 km and
an estimated coal traffic of 222.6 billion ton-kilometers.
No absolute figures for coal traffic by rail during 1953 have been
announced by the USSR. Coal traffic statistics for this year, there-
fore, must be estimated on the basis of Soviet statements and their
relationship to known data.
In April and May 1954, Kaganovich, the member of the Politburo
in general charge of transport, made two major speeches dealing with
1953 rail traffic and with plans for future transport development. 2,2/
These speeches give data that are helpful in studying the movement of
coal and are consistent with other sources (see Problem 2*). Kaganovich
stated that in 1953, coal made up 30 percent of all rail loadings and
28 percent of all rail traffic. Both figures appear in the same state-
ment, indicating that rail loadings and rail traffic apparently are not
the same. The average length of haul for coal in the USSR is known to
be about 8 to 10 percent less than the average for all commodities. 2,31
The larger percentage, therefore, should be tons-originated, and the
28 percent should be the proportion that ton-kilometers of coal traffic
bear to total ton-kilometers for all rail traffic for 1953. Neither
can be carloadings, because coal is stated elsewhere to comprise
"more than one-fifth" of all railroad carloadings.
Applying 28 percent to the total Soviet rail traffic figure of
about 795 billion tariff ton-kilometers for 1953 E2/ gives a coal traf-
fic estimate of 222.6 billion tariff ton-kilometers. If this figure
is divided by 662 km, the average length of haul for coal in 1952 ??../
(which is estimated an the basis of Soviet statements to have remained
about the same in 1953), ,a total is obtained of 336 million tons of coal
originated on the railroads in 1953.
* P. 18, below.
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This figure if taken at face value definitely indicates some double-
counting of coal traffic because it is about 6 percent in excess of
calculated mine shipments plus imports (see Tables 1 and 2*). Some
double-counting certainly takes place, for it is known that at times
coal is hauled from a mine to a storage area and later picked up again
for dispatch to a consumer. Railroad statistics would count this as
two separate originations. Rail-water-rail movements would also result
in the same coal being counted twice in rail totals. Such traffic is
found on the Black Sea as well as on the Amur and Volga Rivers. 22/
The 336-million-ton figure and the 662-km average length of haul
for 1953 are both uncertain; however, the former probably is slightly
too high and the latter slightly too low. To satisfy the requirement
that coal be 28 percent of total 1953 ton-kilometers and 30 percent of
tons-originated, with the 662-km length of haul, it must be assumed
that both percentages given by Kaganovich are rounded and that the 28
percent is actually a little high and the 30 percent a little low --
or, alternatively, that the average length of haul in 1953 increased
somewhat over 1952. At this time it cannot be determined where the
possible error lies, or its magnitude, and the figures will therefore
be used as derived.
Problem 2: Estimating Interregional and Intraregional Coal Traffic.
Interregional coal traffic is estimated at 93 million tons and
intraregional coal traffic at 226 million tons, after eliminating
double..counting resulting from distribution and redistribution and from
traffic interchanges between rail, highway, and water transport. The
basis for the estimates of the total interregional flow, the flow
between regions and foreign countries, and the intraregional flow
included in Tables 1 and 2 is given below.
a. Long-Haul Traffic.
The statistically derived figures of 336 million tons-originated
and 222.6 billion ton-kilometers may be used to determine the absolute
volume of certain major coal movements (see Table 2). Kaganovich
stated that 7.1 percent of the rail movement of coal was more than
2,600 km and that 30 percent was more than 1,800 km. LEY These per-
centages cannot have been given in terms of total tons moved, because
*
1-1". 6 and 8, respectively, above.
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this would imply that about 25 million tons were hauled more than
2,600 km, and 101 million tons were hauled more than 1,800 km. As
will be shown below, the only coal moving in major quantity for more
than 2,600 km is a part of the Kuzbas and Karaganda coal, and these
fields also supply the great bulk of the coal moving from 1,800 to
2,600 km. To deal with the latter first, the 101 million tons are
nearly twice the total 1953 output for the Kuzbas and Karaganda,
and a 25-million-ton movement of more than 2,600 km does not agree
with Kaganovich's complaint that unnecessary and long-distance hauls
of coal amounted to 13 million tons. 22/ The percentages must there-
fore apply to ton-kilometers of coal traffic rather than to tons.
Multiplication of the 222.6 billion ton-kilometers derived
(the total Soviet rail traffic in coal) by 7.1 percent then yields
15.8 billion ton-kilometers of coal movement in excess of 2,600 km
for 1953, and multiplication by 30 percent and subtraction from the
product of the total moved over 2,600 km yields 51_billion ton-
kilometers as the coal traffic moving between 1,800 and 2,600 km.
Firm estimates of tonnage movements may be calculated from these
figures.
Table 3* showing distances for movements from various coal
sources to typical known destinations outside the local fields,
indicates that for normal movements only Kuzbas and Karaganda, coal
goes to destinations more than 2,600 km distant. Kuzbas coal to any
destination west of the Urals falls into the "more than 2,600-km"
category, but Karaganda coal falls into this category only for
destinations beyond Region VI (Volga). Some Karaganda coal for the
nearer parts of Region VII (Central) may move slightly less than
2,600 km.
Using an arbitrary figure of 2,700 km as the average distance
for coal moving in long-haul traffic and dividing 15.8 billion ton-
kilometers by this figure gives a total of about 5.9 million tons of
coal in such traffic. Similarly, using 2,200 km, the midpoint of the
1,800-to-2,600-km range, as divisor and 51 billion ton-kilometers as
dividend, a total of about 23.2 million tons moving in medium-long
hauls is derived. A slightly lower average distance of 2,100 km
would give a total of 24.3 million tons for such traffic. These
figures seem reasonable maximum and minimum limits.
* P. 9, above.
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As stated, the 5.9 million tons are probably nearly all Kuzbas
and Karaganda coal, but the medium long-haul traffic can also embrace
Pechora coal and a small amount from Cheremkhovo and a few minor fields.
From statements concerning the distribution of Pechora coal 191* as
applied to 1953 production data, about 6 million tons of Pechora coal
can be safely allocated to medium long-haul traffic (largely to the
Leningrad area). Cheremkhovo and other minor coals moving in medium-
long hauls east on the Trans-Siberian Railroad are rather definitely
known to amount to no more than 700,000 tons. Xi* It follows that
at least 16.5 million tons of Kuzbas and neighboring coals or of
Karaganda coal moved in medium long-haul traffic in 1953, with the
possibility that the tonnage may have been as high as 17.6 million
tons if the average length of haul was 2,100 rather than 2,200 km.
This was allocated between the Kuzbas, neighboring minor
fields, and Karaganda on the basis of 1952 traffic data 2/** and
particularly of a statement that about one-third of the Karaganda coal
was used in the Karaganda area in 1952.*** (For 1951-52 traffic, see
Problem 5.****) Considering the appreciable increase in Karaganda
coal output in 1953, without a proportionate increase in local demand,
it might be proper to estimate local use as 31 percent of the 1953
Karaganda production total. This would give about 14 million tons
transported out of the producing region, with nearly all of it moving to
the Urals ant beyond. But more than half of this amount probably would
stop in the Urals and be hauled less than 1,800 km, since half of
Karaganda production in 1952 was consumed in the Urals. This would
imply that about 9 million tons were shipped to Urals consumers that
year. In view of the larger supplies of Kuzbas coal available for 1953
and the greater demand for coal in Regions VI (Volga) and VII (Central),
the coal export of Karaganda to the Urals was probably cut to 8.1 million
tons.
The amount of coal sent to Regions VI and VII from Karaganda
probably was increased substantially in 1953, for reasons of economy in
transport. The actual 1953 movement cannot be derived by analogy from
available data for previous years, but nevertheless can be approximated
* See p. 36, below.
** See pp. 34-35, below.
*XX Possibly 1951, but believed to be 1952 because of the ratio
mentioned of 1940 to "present" output.
**** See p. 34, below.
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by indirect methods. Table 4* shows the estimated shipments of coal
by rail to selected cities in the USSR in 1953. The distances in this
table indicate that Karaganda coal has a decisive advantage in length
of haul for almost all parts of Region VI and a lesser one for Region
VII and for the northern part of Region VIII (Urals). The distance
advantage reaches a maximum for the southern part of Region VIII. It
seems likely, therefore, that with a demand for coal greater than the
supply, and with a known shortage of coal cars, the routing of coal
would have been arranged to give minimum average lengths of haul, to
the degree that requirements for special-quality coal would allow.
Under such conditions, nearly all coal from the eastern
regions needed for Region VI would be expected to come from Karaganda,
as well as fuel coal for the southern Urals. Fuel coal from the
Kuzbas would go to the northern Urals and Region VII, with only such
Karaganda coal to these two areas as could be spared. In support of
this contention there is the condition that not more than 5.9 million
tons of Kuzbas and Karaganda coal can have moved more than 2,600 km
and that only 16.5 million to 17 million tons probably can have moved
from 1,800 to 2,600 km. The allocation of 4 million tons of Kuzbas
coal and 2 million tons of Karaganda coal to Region VII satisfies the
requirement for 5.9 million tons moving over 2,600 km because a small
part of the Karaganda total to Region VII will move less than this
distance. Allocations of 14.04 million tons of Kuzbas coal and other
Siberian coal to Region VIII, plus 3.3 million tons of Karaganda coal
to Region VI, with the estimated 100,000 tons of Karaganda coal to
Region VII that was moved less than 2,600 km gives a total of 17.44
million tons that would move between 1,800 and 2,600 km. Small amounts
hauled excessive distances on the Turk-Sib line would bring the total
for the USSR to about 17.5 million tons. The tonnages satisfy cal-
culated Kuzbas and Karaganda shipment surpluses, if allowances are made
for Karaganda shipments to the South Urals; a small amount to Region
Xb (Central Asia); and minor Kuzbas deliveries to Region Xa (Kazakhstan),
which are known to have taken place. Such an allocation satisfies both
computed shipments from the coalfields and the conditions posed by the
Kaganovich statements regarding percentages sent from the various fields
for distances of 1,800 to 2,600 km and for more than 2,600 km.
Furthermore, shipments of 6 million tons of Kuzbas and Karaganda
coal to Region VII and 3.3 million tons to Region VI total 9.3 million
tons, which can be compared with the Kaganovich statement about these
* Table 4 follows on p. 22.
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Table 4
Estimated Shipments of Coal by Rail to Selected Cities in the USSR 2/
1953
Economic Region
Ia (Northwest)
III (South)
VI (Volga)
VII (Central)
City
Receipts
(Million Metric Tons)
Leningrad 6.5
Zaporozh'ye 3.5
Dneprodzerzhinsk 3.8
Zhdanov 3.6
Krivoy Rog 3.0
Khar'kov 3.0
Rostov 3.0
Girlovka 2.5
Sta1ino 3.0
Makeyvka 3.0
Voroshilavsk 2.8
Kadiyevka 2.5
Yenakiyevo 2.5
Dnepropetrovsk 2.0
Kiev 1.8
Odessa 1.5
Zuyevka 1.3
Voroshilovgrad 1.0
Uspenka 1.0
Roya 1.0
Stalingrad
Kuybyshev
Saratov
Kazan'
Moscow
Gortkiy
Stalinogorsk
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
20.0
3.5
3.0
a. See Problem 8, p. 39, below.
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Table 4
Estimated Shipments of Coal by Rail to Selected Cities in the USSR
1953
(Continued)
Receipts
Economic Region City (Million Metric Tons)
VII (Central) Aleksin 1.5
(Continued) Kashira 1.8
Ivanovo 1.0
VIII (Urals) Magnitogorsk 8.0
Chelyabinsk (and
vicinity) 7.0
Nizhniy Tagil (and
? vicinity) 5.5
Sverdlovsk 3.0
? Krasnogorskiy 2.5
Nizhnyaya Tura 2.5
Molotov 1.5
Gubakha 1.5
Orsk 1.0
IX (West Siberia). Stalinsk
Kemerovo
Prokop'yevsk
Osinniki
Novosibirsk
Omsk
Barnaul
Tomsk
XI (East Siberia)
XII (Far East)
6.2
4.8
1.1
1.0
3.5
2.0
1.5
1.25
Krasnoyarsk 3.0
Irkutsk 2.6
Chita 1.5
Petrovsk-Zabaykal'skiy 1.3
Komsomol'sk
Khabarovsk
Vladivostok
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two coals being transported "in quantities up to 10 million tons, as
far as Moscow, where it was never transported in the past." 4
Kaganovich does not mean that the total went to Moscow but that some
got that far. He does not use the words "to Moscow," but "as far as
Moscow." The burden of his complaint is that Kuzbas and Karaganda
coals are being moved into regions that are nearer the Donbas and
Moscow coalfields, because nearer fields are not producing enough
coal to meet the demand. If his argument is taken literally and
lines of equidistance from Karaganda and Donbas are drawn, it is
apparent that part of the western Urals also falls in the Donbas
sphere. Kaganovich, therefore, may have been counting in his "up to
10 million" total the Karaganda coal delivered to the Ufa region,
which is administratively in the Urals though physically west of them.
This would make his statement and this computation agree almost
exactly.
Additional cross-check is also possible. One-fourth of the
Kizel coal from the Urals moves west to Region VII, and Kaganovich
complained that this traffic should not exist. Adding, therefore,
2.6 million tons of Kizel coal to the minimum 9.3 million tons of
Kuzbas and Karaganda coal movement complained of as going beyond the
Urals, and estimating from consumption data and a Kaganovich statement
about the cost in rubles of crosshauling coal on the Turk-Sib Rail-
road 12/ that the crosshauling of Central Asian, Kuzbas, and Karaganda
coal may amount to 500,000 to 1 million tons, a total of "unnecessary
and long-distance conveyance of coal" is derived of 12.4 million to
more than 12.9 million tons. This compares well with Knganovich's
statement that, for the whole USSR, such movements amount to "over 13
million tons."
A satisfactory verification of the above calculations has been
obtained from a recent speech of Bulganin, 1L/ who states that "the
lagging behind of coal extraction in the European part of the USSR as
compared with coal consumption in this part of the country leads to the
necessity of carrying coal over enormous distances." Bulganin continues,
"thus in 1954 over 11 million tons of Kuznetsk and Karaganda coal were
transported to areas west of the Urals." In view of the increased coal
consumption in 1954, this compares well with a computed movement of
Kuzbas and Karaganda coal to the same area of a little less than 10
million tons for 1953.
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b. Short-Haul Traffic.
The broad outline of Kuzbas, Karaganda, and Pechora long-haul
coal movements having been determined, there remains the allocation
of the residual short-haul and medium-haul coal movements to local
industry. This amounts to approximately 282 million tons. The
general pattern of this movement may be found in Tables 1 and 2.*
For Kuzbas coal a somewhat more detailed regional allocation
based on commodity analysis gives an estimated 7 million tons of coal
used in the coalfield. itself for coke; 9 million tons used there for
electric power, coal production, railroads, and the like; and 11
million tons used outside the actual coalfield but still within
Region IX (West Siberia) for railroad consumption or for power and
industry in various cities. The largest centers of coal use in the
field are Stalinsk, which is estimated to consume about 6.2 million
tons; Kemerovo, about 4:8 million tons; ,Pi?okop'yevsk, 1.1 million tons;
and Osinniki, 1 million tons. Novosibirsk is the largest consumer in
Region IX outside the coalfield and is estimated to receive about
3.5 million tons. The estimated consumption for other cities is as
follows: Omsk, 2 million tons; Barnaul, 1.5 million tons; and Tomsk,
1.25 million tons. The above figures include movement and consump-
tion of both local coal and that Imported from Region XI Oast Siberia)
and are approximations made after considering the size and nature of
local industries, size of power plants, population, and the like, plus
the statements from Soviet technical articles given in Problem 5.**
The calculations used in making these and the following estimates are
shown in Problem 8.***
Karaganda coal has no major centers of local consumption.
There is relatively-minor use in the Karaganda field for coal. Mining
and industry there are estimated to use 1.5 million tons; some is used
at the important Balkhash copper center and some at the small steel
center of Temir-Tau.**** Most Karaganda coal consumed locally goes to
the railroads for moving other coal long distances to market, although
important tonnages began to move to consumers in south Kazakstan over
the new Mointy-Chu Railroad late in 1953.
Pp. 6 and 8, respectively, above.
P. 34, below.
P. 39, below.
This plant is slated for major expansion in the next few years.
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For the remaining sources of coal, only a general pattern of
movement can be given, based on data in this appendix and in Table 5,*
which shows the estimated consumption of coal in the USSR, by region
and by type of use, in 1953. The movement of coal to Urals consumers
is estimated to be approximately 61.5 million tons. Of this,
Magnitogorsk may receive up to 8 million tons; Chelyabinsk, about
4.5 million tons; another 2.5 million tons in plants of the surrounding
area; Nizhniy Tagil and its vicinity, about 5.5 million tons; Sverdlovsk,
3 million tons; Krasnogorsk, 2.5 million tons; Nizhnyaya Tura, 2.5 mil-
lion tons; Molotov, 1.5 million tons; Gubakha, 1.5 million tons; and
Orsk, 1 million tons. A number of lesser consuming centers exist.
In Region VII (Central), Moscow may receive 20 million tons
(mainly lignite); Gor'kiy, 3.5 million tons; Stalinogorsk, 3 million
tons; Aleksin, 1.5 million tons; Kashira, 1.8 million tons; and
Ivanovo, 1 million tons. Leningrad is the only major center of coal
consumption in Region Ia (Northwest) and is tentatively estimated to
require 6.5 million tons.
In the central and lower Volga area, Stalingrad is estimated to
receive about 2 million tons; Kuybyshev, 1 million tons; Saratov,
1 million tons; and Kazan', 1,5 million tons. About 45 percent of the
'coal brought in seems to go to rail use, rather than to local cities
for industry.
Important centers of coal consumption abound in the Donets
area, but there are none that are conspicuously larger than others.
There are probably 13 cities that receive more than 2 million tons of
coal, and not one of these is estimated to use as much as 4 million
tons. Coal traffic to major centers, based mainly on use in coke
plants and steelworks, is estimated to have been as follows: Zaporozh'ye,
3.5 million tons; Dneprodzerzhinsk, 3.8 million tons; Rostov, 3 million
tons; Gorlovka, 2.5 million tons; Stalino, 3 million tons; Makeyevka,
3 million tons; Voroshilovsk, 2.8 million tons; Kadiyevka, 2.5 million
tons; Yenakiyevo, 2.5 million tons; and Dnepropetrovsk, 2 million tons.
Other Region III (South, or Ukraine) centers of coal consump-
tion of major Importance are as follows: Kiev, 1.8 million tons;
Odessa, 1.5 million tons; Zuyevka, 1.3 million tons; Voroshilovgrad,
1 million tons; Uspenka, 1 million tons; and Roya, 1 million tons.
Table 5 follows on p.-27.
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0
4.1.
CD
a
m
0
mS
73
CD Estimated Consumption of Coal in the USSR, by Region and by Type of Use
CT '953
CD
OD
CD Coal
(Million Metric Tons)
CD 1951 Used in Metallurgy Used in Public Used in Transport
CD 1951 Labor Force Used at Mines Used for Cement, Buildings,
CD Population in Industry in For Beat Brick, Used for Electric Factories, and Other For Household Total
a Economic Region (Millions) (Millions) Coal Production For Coke and Power and Tile Power W General Tndustry 122 Railroads Shipping Use Consumption
.......
Table 5
CD
......Ia (Northwest) 8.1 1.10 0.30 0.50 0.80 1.25
3.80
2.50
0.50
1.10
10.75
(Dib (North 3.1 0.10 0.30 0.10 0.13 0.20
0.40
2.50
0.30
0.30
4.23
MM. (Baltic) 6,8 0.32 0.10 0.40 0.30
1.30
1.00
0.20
0.70
4.00
. . lib (Belorussia) 7.7 0.29 0.57 0.35
1.30
1.10
0.70
4.02
III (south) 45.9 2.90 2.00 29.30 7.50 3.21 7.50
11.75
16.50
0.20
4.00
81.96
%. ;Iv (Southeast) 9.6 0.47 0.40 0.50 0.89 1.20
OW
1.75
2.80
0.10
1.10
8.74
V (Transcaucasus) 8.1 0.31 0.19 0.20 0.50 0.80 1.16
1.75
0.40
0.70
5.70
l'-vI (Volga) 11.1 0.56 0.80 0.99 3.60
1.90
7.00
0.10
1.10
15.49
VII(Central) 46.7 4.30 1.40 0.40 1.30 3.77 11.00
18.20
13.00
0.10
5.49
54.66
=VIII (Urals) 13.8 1.60 1.40 14.80 7.30 1.29 16.95
9.20
8.70
1.90
61.54
C...PIX (West Siberia) 11.0 0.80 1.30 7.00 1.60 0.73 2.60
2.70
9.80
0.10
1.30
27.13
7)Ra (Kazakhstan) 6.8 0.30 0.80 1.10 0.37 2.50
.....Pb (Central Asia) 10.4 0.35 0.15 0.15 0.80 1.73
1.00
0.50
4.90
1.20
0.80
0.60
11.47
5.13
(C)XI (East Siberia) 5.9 0.35 0.50 0.20 0.58 1.60
01 xii (Far East) 4.5 0.19 0.50 0.20 0.80 0.89 3.00
4.05
2.99
8.00
6.00
0.10
0.50
1.00
1.55
16.03
16.43
Total 203.8 13.422 8.94 52.20 22.45 16.22 54.94
62.59
85.40
2.20
22.34
127.28
(:)
(Da. This is the estimated amount of coal used by powerplants of the Ministry of Electric Power Stations, making allowance for possible use of peat, wood, and petroleum in particular
Pareas. Much electricity is made in plants belonging to other ministries, and coal for such plants appears under the other headings.
Ximb. The figures here are a residual after subtracting calculated consumption under the other headings. Soviet sources state that 6 percent of the coal used goes to heavy industry and
4:46 percent to light industry. El Factories therefore might require about 40 million tons, leaving about 22 million tons for heating public buildings and stores, for agriculture, for
andlitary And naval use, for atomic energy, for increase of stockpiles, for storage and transit losses, and so on.
mm%
4:)
--%
(:)
(:)
-.4
6)
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In central Siberia and Region XII (Far East) the major con-
suming centers are as follows: Krasnoyarsk, 3 million tons; Irkutsk,
2.6 million tons; Chita, 1.5 million tons; Petrovsk-Zabaykal'skiy,
1.3 million tons; Komsomol'sk, 2.5 million tons; Khabarovsk, 2 million
tons; and Vladivostok, 2.8 million tons.
The above figures in most cases represent rough estimates of
coal shipments for local consumption, and the accuracy of the figures
for cities is considerably lower than that for regions. Movements to
local centers, however, are believed to be of about the right order
of magnitude.
Problem 3: Estimating the Production of Coal.
The production of coal in the USSR for 1953 is estimated to be
320 million tons. lg./ Table 6* shows the estimated production of coal
in the USSR by region, by producing area, and by type. These figures
were computed on the basis of data in Soviet annduncements and in
technical articles, the reported output of fields, and reported pro-
duction and shipments. For most fields, data are believed accurate
within a few percent, and the national total so derived agrees with
a Soviet statement of 1953 output. 39/
In 1953 about 35 percent of the total production of coal in the
USSR was from the Donbas in the Ukraine area, 14 percent from the
Kuzbas in West Siberia, 13 percent from the Urals fields, 11 percent
from the Moscow basin south of Moscow, 6 percent from Karaganda in
Kazakhstan, and almost 4 percent from the Pechora area near the
Arctic Coast. Most of the remainder was frOm numerous smaller fields
in Siberia. There is little production in the west and northwest
area of the USSR or in the Volga basin. By type of coal, about 30
percent of total output was lignite (brown coal) and the rest was
bituminous or anthracite coal. Lignite comprised all the Moscow
basin output and two-thirds of the Urals output.
Problem 4: Estimating the Consumption of Coal.
The estimated consumption of coal in the USSR in 1953 was about
327 million tons (see Table 5**). The excess of consumption over
domestic supp1y was made good by imports from Poland and Communist***
**
***
Table 6 follows on p. 29.
P. 27, above.
Continued on p. 32.
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Table 6
Estimated Production of Coal in the USSR, by Producing Area and by Type 21*
1953
A
Thousand Metric Tons
Economic Region
Ia (Northwest)
Ib (North)
III (South)
IV (Southeast)
V (Transcaucasus)
VI (Volga)
VII (Central)
VIII (Urals)
IX (West Siberia
Producing Area
Spit zbergen
Leningrad
Vorkuta
Inta
Donets
Western Ukraine
Northern Caucasus
Transcaucasus
Volga basin
Moscow basin
Kizel and Yegorshino
Karpinsk and Chelyabinsk
Kuzbas
Novosibirsk
Footnotes for Table 6 follow on p. 31.
Total Total
Hard Coal Lignite by Field by Region
250 * 250
550 550 800
10100 10,100
1,400 1,400 11,500
113,500 12/ 113,500
5,750 5,750
350 350 119,600
2,300 125 2,425 2,425
25 25 25
36,600 36,600 36,600
1)-i-,l00 14,100
27)900 27,900 42,000
44,600 44,600
290 290 44,890
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Table 6
Estimated Production of Coal in the USSR, by Producing Area and by Type
1953
(Continued)
Thousand Metric Tons
Economic Region
Producing Area
Hard Coal
Lignite
Total
by Field
Total
by Region
Xa (Kazakhstan)
Karaganda
15,400
4,800
20,200
Lenger and other fields
125
1,575
1,700
21,900
Xb (Central Asia)
Kirgiz SSR
855
1,325
2,180
Uzbek SSR
2,400
2,400
Tadzhik SSR
725
725
Turkmen SSR
55
55
5,360
XI (East Siberia)
Minusinsk
2,900
2,900
Kansk
1,300
1,300
Cheremkhovo
9,250
9,250
Bukachacha
1,200
1,200
Chernavskiye Kopi
1,900
1,900
Other fields
1,090
1,260
2,350
18,900
XII (Far East)
Raychikhinsk
5,500
5,500
Suchan
1,300
1,300
Ar-tern
2,565
2,565
40
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Table 6
Estimated Production of Coal in the USSR, by Producing Area and by Typ
1953
(Continued)
Thousand Metric Tons
Economic Region
Producing Area
Hard Coal
Lignite
Total
by Field
Total
by Region
XII (Far East)
El' gen
1,450
1,450
(Continued)
Sakhalin
3,050
3,050
Other fields
885
1,250
2,135
- 16,000
Total USSR
222,65,5
97,345
320000,
a. _21/
b. The Donets coalfield cuts across the boundary between Regions III and IV. About 20 million
tons of coal are produced in Region IV, the remainder in Region III.
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China, as in other postwar years. The Ukraine was the largest consumer,
using nearly 82 million tons, closely followed by the Urals, using more
than 61.5 million tons and by Region VII (Central), using more than
54.5 million tons. Region IX (West Siberia) used more than 27 million
tons; Region XI (East Siberia), 16 million tons; and Region XII (Far
East), about 16.5 million tons. Slightly below these came Region VI
(Volga), using 15.5 million tons, and the remaining consumption was
widely scattered.
Consumption by type of use was approximately as follows: coke, 52
million tons; metallurgical plants, 22.5 million tons; cement, brick,
and tile, 16.2 million tons; electric power, 55 million tons; public
buildings, factories, and general industry, 62.6 million tons; trans-
port, 87.6 million tons; and household use, 22.3 million tons.
The figures in Table 5* showing the consumption of coal in 1953 come
from varying sources and are of varying degrees of completeness and
accuracy. The amount of coal used in transport was computed from
traffic estimates and from Soviet official data on rail fuel use, and
the figures are believed to be fairly accurate. The amount of coal
used for cement, brick, and tile is believed to be reasonably accurate
as to total but subject to possible minor revision as to allocation by
region because data on the location and size of brick plants are
incomplete. The amount of coal used for metallurgy is essentially that
estimated to have been used by the steel industry. The figures are
believed to be excellent as to coke and good as to fuel use. Rough
estimates for the relatively small amounts of coal used by nonferrous
metallurgy have been added to these totals, giving consideration to a
report that 23 percent of the consumption of Soviet coal goes to
metallurgy./11/ The total allocation of coal for use at mines is an
estimate made mainly on the basis of probable power requirements for
coal production and is believed to be reasonable.
Coal for household use was estimated after examination of US con-
sumption of coal for this use at about 7 percent of total consumption.
The figure and its allocation by region (mainly according to population,
but with consideration for local availability of fuelwood and peat,
centralized city heating, local tightness of coal supply, and so on)
can hardly be considered satisfactory, because it is not based on
extensive research, but it is unlikely to be more than 50 percent too
low or 10 percent too high. It is known that per capita use of coal
for heating is low because families in the USSR have much smaller per
* P. 27, above.
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capita house space than those in the US. Because of the relatively
small size of the item, even an error of 50 percent would have little
effect on the regional pattern of coal flow.
Information on the location and size of the hundreds of small
electric powerplants using coal in the USSR is very incomplete, as
well as information on powerplants belonging to various industries
in the USSR and not under the Ministry of Electric Power Stations.
The consumption of coal by these and by plants fitted to burn several
alternative fuels is also unknown. The totals given, both by region
and in aggregate, are therefore only approximations of the amount
consumed by the Ministry, and it seems certain that the actual con-
sumption of coal in the generation of electric power is appreciably
larger than shown.
Part of the coal shown as used for "public buildings, factories,
and general industry" undoubtedly goes for generating electric power,
and it may be desirable to consolidate this total with that for
"electric power." This miscellaneous residual item is based mainly
on the regional distribution of the labor force in industry, which
is considered to correspond roughly to industrial output and to fuel
demand. Modification was made for approximate regional proportions
of heavy and light industry and also for use of peat, gas, and petro-
leum and for electric power from plants of the Ministry of Electric
Power Stations.
This residual item, which includes a reported "6 percent of coal
used in machine building and 6 percent used by light industry,"/
or a total of almost 4o million tons, must also include allowance for
any underestimates of coal for electric power. The residual also
includes coal for heating public buildings and stores, for agriculture,
for military and naval use, for atomic energy plants, and for increases
in fuel stockpiles and losses in storage and transit.
Adjustment of the residual so that the total for Soviet consumption
of coal equals the total for Soviet supply was made after subtotals by
regions were roughly computed for the coal used in public buildings,
factories, and general industry. The adjustment amounted to a reduc-
tion of only about 2 million tons and to a rearrangement of about the
same magnitude to reflect smaller total consumption in the European
USSR and larger consumption in Region XI (East Siberia) and Region XII
(Far East) than had been estimated tentatively. This rearrangement
rests on what seem to be firm data on total regional production and on
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imports and exports of coal. The actual allocation of coal by region,
therefore, seems to be more accurate than the uncertainty of various
single items indicates. The estimates in Table 5*, however, are
preliminary and should be used only until more satisfactory data are
assembled.
Problem 5: Comments on Source Material Dealing with Coal Traffic.
In any consideration of coal movements in the USSR during 1953,
attention must be given to statements in three articles appearing in
2E21', the Soviet coal journal, in September 1954,121/ about changes in
the production and distribution of coal between 1940 and 1952, the
proportions of coal going to various industries, and the coal supply
for the Soviet railroads. Statements from these articles having a
bearing on traffic flow are as follows:
CPYRGHT a.
CPYRGHT
"Coal now grom context. probably 19527 makes up 71 percent of
the total fuel balance, and will be 72 percent in 1955.?
The context
makes it clear that here the percentage is in standard fuel and not in
actual tons. Standard fuel is an accounting concept used for equating
various fuels according to their energy outputs. One ton of a good
oil might, for example, be equal in energy output to one ton of
standard fuel, but for a lignite, perhaps 3 tons weight might be no
more than 1 ton when reckoned in terms of standard fuel. A table in
Voprosv ekonomiki which deals with fuels in the UBSR211?/ makes it
clear that the Ugol' percentages exclude wood and hydroelectric power.
CPYRGHTb "Of the present coal consumption, transportation takes 25-26
percent, metallurgy 23 percent, electric power 17 perceht, machine
building 6 percent, and light and food industry 6 percent.l The
distribution of the remaining 22 to 23 percent is not given, but a
study of the transport and electric power items makes it fairly clear
that the percentages given here are in terms of standard fuel and. not
actual tons used. The large production of lignite and other low-
grade coal makes standard and actual fuel percentages quite different
where an industry uses coal of a quality different from the national
average .CPYRGHT
-_,PYRGHT
c. "The northern oblasts of RSFSR, the Ukrainian SSR, North
Caucasus, Kazakhstan, West and East Siberia, which are responsible
for 77 to 78 percent in standard fuel of coal output, consume only
51.5 percent of the total coal yield. The remaining regions produce
* P. 27, above.
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CPYRGHT
only 22-23 percent and consume about 48.5 percent."
The enumerated
regions include all the major coalfields except Moscow and the UralscpyRGHT
and the statement gives excellent clues as to consumption.
d. iinbas(PRIDal ishautIMIRMIOnotshipsedto-re,ions,and
the total to the northwest (particularly Leningrad is now one-thira
of prewar. There has been some curtailment to the Central industrial
Region on account of the development of-Moscow Basin coal. The Volga
now takes 15.5 percent of Donbas coal, and the north Caucasus also
tpikpq mnre than prewar. Less than 1 ercent of Donbas coal goes to
the Transcaucasus and Central Asia."I The last statement, which is
in direct conflict with actual statistics given by Kaganovich for
1952 shipments and with implications in the Kaganovich statements
that 1953 movement to the Transcaucasus was also appreciable, makes
it probable that 1951 statistics are being quoted. The discussion
here and subsequently seems to be in terms of tons of actual coal.
e.
CPYRGHT
"Compared with prewar, delivery of Kuzbas coal to the Central
Regions is now reduced to a snail amount and tnat to tne volga to one-
fourth the former level. Deliveries via the Turk-Sib Railroad to
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have increased. Almost half Kuzbas coal is
now, as in 1940, consumed in the basin. Delivery to the Urals has
increased to 2.5 times the former level, bringing the proportion of
14.1? H--1- -onsumption of Kuzbas coal from 28.7 percent prewar
TI to percent." Again, the traffic pattern is not that of 1953 but
CPYRGHT
CPYRGH
CPYRGHT
of an earlier year, probably 1952 but possibly 1951. A statement
that "consumption of Kuzbas coal has almost doubled although its
proportion of total USSR output is only a little over prewar" makes
it likely that 1952 is the year in question. An earlier year would
not have output and consumption "almost double" 1940. CPYRGHT
f.
prewar eve le rVeries o e en r
Those to the Volga are 7most 5 times their former level and those
to the Urals are 3 times that level. About one-third of Karaganda
in Vara4Ands. itself, one-half goes to the Urals and
Ione-eighth to the Volga." Consumption in Karaganda should be under-
stood as consumption in Region Xa (Kazakhstan), largely for rail fuel.
"Consumstion of Karaganda coal is more than three times its
g. "The consumption of Moscow Basin coal is 3.5 times the pre-
war level. The area of consumption is limited but expanding. Con-
sumption of this coal in Moscow is more than 30 times the former
level -- mainly in electric power and machine-building enterprises."
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CPYRGHT
h. "All Ural coal is used in the Urals, except one-fifth or Kizel
coal, which goes to the Central oblasts."
i. "Khakasskaya coal 5inusinsk7 is of minor importance. c".Three-
fourths is now shipped west even...7 as far as Sverdlovsk. There is a
considerable increase (4 to times) in transport to Kemerovskaya and
Novosibirskaya Oblasts and to Altayskiy Kray."
j. "Cheremkhovo coal to the west amounts to 30 percent, with a
considerable part shipped west of Krasnoyarsk. Absolute and relative
consumption in Irkutsk Oblast has increased and transport to the east
has diminished."
k. "Chernovsky and Bukachacha deposits deliver about three-fourths
of all Transbaykal coal. Consumption is local except for some
Bukachacha coal sent as far as Primorskiy Kray. Railroads are the prin-
cipal users. One-half the Raychikhinskiy coal is used in Amurskaya
Oblast and one-half in Khabarovskiy Kray. Three-fourths of Sakhalin
coal is used on the island. Twenty to 30 percent of Suchan and Artem
coal is shipped to Khabarovskiy Kray, mainly for railroads. Some
70 to 75 percent of Central Asian coal is used in Uzbek SSR and 10 to
12 percent in Tadzhik SSR."
1. "Pechora coal goes one-third to the northern oblasts, about
55 percent to the northwest (with half this to Leningrad) and 10 per-
cent to the Kirov and Gor'kiy regions. Local use is small."
m. "Railroads are the largest consumers of coal and use 27 per-
cent of the balance. In 1940 the Donbas, Kuzbas, Moscow, Karaganda,
and Cheremkhovo fields supplied 82.2 percent of railroad coal. Now
they supply 73.8 percent. The Donbas in 1940 supplied more than half
the railroad coal and now supplies less than one-third, although the
actual amount delivered is the same. The Kuzbas is in second place
as a supplier of railroad fuel, and Moscow has taken third place.
Railroad fuel is 25.2 percent of Donbas production, 26.4 percent for
Kuzbas, 26.3 percent for Moscow, 32.4 percent for Pechora, 40.1 per-
cent for Karaganda, ... ."
n. "The railroads consumed in 1951 3.5 times as much lignite
as in 1940. At the same time, consumption of all coals on the rail-
roads rose only 55 percent, since bituminous coal consumption rose
only 30 percent. The average distance of haul for railroad coal
is 785 kilometers as against 662 kilometers for all coal hauled.
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CPYRGHT
CPYRGHT
Karaganda is supplying the railroads with a considerable amount of
lignitQ, up t 30 porcnt in 1952.Thirtyercent of the Karaganda
coal used by the railroads is coking coal."I The above two items are
extracted from a discussion of railroad fuel supply. Note that 1951
and 1952 statistics are mentioned in the same paragraph, which raises
doubt as to which year the unlabeled statistics represent. It is
believed, however, that the average length of haul for coal was
similar in 1951 to 1952, so that on this point the ambiguity does not
matter.
Problem 6: Estimating the Volume of Waterborne Coal Traffic.
There are numerous waterborne coal movements in the USSR, amounting
to almost 6 million tons, but the aggregate is only about 2 percent of
total coal traffic by tonnage and is little more by ton-kilometers.
The shipment of coal in the USSR, therefore, is handled almost exclu-
sively by rail. The following isolated data on waterborne coal
traffic would seem to bear out this conclusion.
In a speech in March 1954 to the sea and inland waterway workers,
Kaganovich implied that coal movements in 1953 on the Volga were small
compared with parallel rail hauls -- a situation similar to that existing
in 1950 -- and mentioned that traffic on the Black Sea from the Donbas
to the Caucasus area in 1952 amounted to only 787,000 tons compared
with a rail movement of 2.65 million tons. 4
It has been reported that about one-fourth of the coal produced in
Sakhalin is consumed outside the island. LY* This statement probably
applies to 1952 traffic, but the percentage should be roughly similar
for 1953. On this assumption, Sakhalin exports were about 750,000
tons. Subtracting small movements known to have been made to Japan
gives a coastwise shipment of about 600,000 tons, with most of the
total going to the Vladivostok area. Some coal probably was shipped
to Kamchatka and some to the lower Amur, and minor amounts may have
moved to Magadan.
An estimated 250,000 tons of coal mined in the Soviet concession
in Spitzbergen is shipped to Murmansk.
* See p. 36, above.
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Coal is produced on the Lena River for local use and is moved to
its destination by water, but the quantity is unlikely to exceed 200,000
tons. Minor coal movements take place on the Yenisey and Obt Rivers,
but the quantities involved are believed to be insignificant.
Some coal from Communist China is shipped down the Sungari River
to destinations in the USSR. About 2.5 million tons of Polish coal
is probably received through Baltic ports.
About 900,000 tons of Raychikhinsk coal is estimated to be shipped
down the Amur by barge.
Steps are being taken to encourage the shipment of Donets coal to
Volga destinations by barge through the Volga-Don Canal, but in 1953 and
1954 comparatively little waterborne traffic of this type was taking
place.
Problem 7: Estimating the Proportion of the Production of Coal Moving
by Rail and by Water.
A transport mission that visited the USSR in 1954 on behalf of
India was told that between 90 and 95 percent of the Soviet production
of coal moved on the railroads. LE/ The figure reported seems to omit
foreign coal handled, and it covers rail movement as a percentage of
production and not a percentage of the total shipped by rail, water,
and truck combined. Some coal produced is used at the mines. Soviet
transport studies give rail tons-originated as percentages of total
coal production for several years. The information is somewhat dated,
but for 1945 the figure was 91 percent. LY Foreign coal is not
mentioned and is believed to be omitted from the figure.
B.P. Beshchev, the Minister of Transportation, USSR, stated in a
speech before the XXth Party Congress that "in 1955 the average ash
content of coal fh-aule.1.7 increased by 2.4 percent over 1940, and /hag
this increase in the ash content of coal made it necessary for the
railroads to haul in 1955 an additional 10 million tons of rock." L1-2/
Interpreted on the basis of Soviet writings on economics which give
somewhat similar comparisons, this statement means the following:
In 1940, ash content was X percent of total coal weight, and in 1955
it was X plus 2.4 percent of total coal weight. Then, if 2.4 percent
of total coal movement by rail is 10 million tons, the total movement
is 417 million tons. Possible maximum and minimum figures resulting
from rounding are 441 million tons and 393 million tons, respectively.
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Production, however, was 391 million tons. It is then clear that
Beshchev is quoting originations of coal on the railroads, which
include some double-counting, and that the railroads handled an over-
whelming proportion of the total traffic, probably about 95 percent.
This leaves very little to be divided between water and truck move-
ments.
The computation tends to support an estimate that 9 to 10 percent
of rail coal originations represent double-counting due to rail-water-
rail hauls and movement of coal to and out of stockpiles. This is
very nearly the same although slightly higher than the percentage .
calculated for 1953, and, if accepted, implies that rail transport
handles about 95 percent of the coal moved. To assume that rail
transport handles less of the total means that it must have a corre-
spondingly larger percentage of double-hauling. This is unlikely,
since double-hauling is discouraged.
Accepting 95 percent of coal movement (in ton-kilometers) as
handled by rail, then water movement may be estimated by compiling
fragmentary data on individual hauls. The average length of haul
by ship seems to approximate the average length of haul by rail and
indicates that water movement, in ton-kilometers, is normally 2 to 3
percent of the total. Trucks 21/ can then be credited with hauling
the remainder.
Problem 8: Estimating Shipments of Coal to Selected Cities.
Table 4* gives estimated shipments of coal to selected cities in
the USSR in 1953. The following discussion of the types of sources
and methodology used in arriving at the estimate of coal shipments
to Stalinsk is representative of sources and methodology used in
making all the estimates in Table 4.
Stalinsk is in the Kuzbas in Region IX (West Siberia). It had
an estimated population of 550,000 in 1950. The city is a major
metallurgical center and is also important as a producer of cement,
chemicals, machinery, and general manufactures. 22/ Coal is produced,
but for quality reasons part of that mined is shipped elsewhere, and
larger quantities of better grade coal are brought in from other
districts for the local coke plant.
* P. 22, above.
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From data on coking capacity, coking coal output in the Kuzbas
and the percentage coked locally, and calculations by metallurgical
specialists as to coke requirements, a figure was derived of 3.21
million tons of coal consumed for making coke in 1953 in Stalinsk.
The figure is believed to be firm. Data also indicate that the
electric powerplant of the steel plant would require a further 305,000
tons of coal for electric power production, and about 400,000 tons
additional would be needed for miscellaneous uses in the steel plant.
Based on the known capacity and operation of the Stalinsk electric
powe.rplant, which is under the Ministry of Electric Power Stations,
655,000 tons of coal have been computed to be needed for this. The
figure is believed to be firm.
Estimates for the coal used in making cement, brick, and refractory
products amount to 300,000 tons, based on firm data for cement and
rough approximations for smaller items.
Local mines are estimated to use 150,000 tons of coal, based on
the general level of output.
Based on a roughly estimated 1953 population of 550,000 and on the
status of the city as an important center of manufacturing, it is esti-
mated that 730,000 tons of coal were used for factories, public buildings,
stores, household use, and so on. The figure is only a general approxi-
mation but is unlikely to be more than 200,000 tons too high or too low.
Stalinsk is an important rail point, and it is estimated that rail-
roads would have required about 450,000 tons of coal in the Stalinsk
area in 1953. The figure is believed to be accurate within a range of
plus or minus 30 percent.
The total of the above requirements is 6.2 million tons, which is
the figure listed in this report.
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APPENDIX B
SOURCE REFERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance:
Source of Information
Doc. - Documentary
A - Completely reliable
B - Usually reliable
C - Fairly reliable
D - Not usually reliable
E - Not reliable
F - Cannot be judged
Information
1 - Confirmed by other
2 - Probably true
3 - Possibly true
4 - Doubtful
5 - Probably false
6 - Cannot be judged
sources
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff
officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the
cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report.
No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation
on the cited document.
1. CIA. CIA/RR 28, Solid Fuels in the USSR, 29 Jan 54. S/UB ONLY.
2. Gudok, 8 Jul 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
3. CIA. FDD Summary no 487, 14 Jun 55, Improving and Reorganizing.
Rail Traffic in the USSR, p. 5. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2. (speech
of May 1954 by Kaganovich)
4. Ibid.
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5. CIA. OCR/IR, USSR Locations, 3d ed, 1 Feb 56. OFF USE.
Eval. RR 2.
6. Joint'Committee on Slavic
Soviet Press 2 May 6 . 22. U. E
FOIAb3b1
7. Gudok 5 Feb 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
,
8. CIA. CIA/RR 28 (1, above).
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ugol', no 9, Sep 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
12. CIA. FDD Summary no 566, 29 Jun 56, The National Econonz
of the USSR, p. 186. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
13. Ibid., p. 83, 84. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CIA. FDD Summary no 487 (3, above).
14. Gudok, 5 Feb 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
Ibid., 20 Mar 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
15. ZheleznodorozhAyy transport, Apr 56, p. 36. U. Eval. PR 2.
16. Pravda 25 Feb 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
17. Ibid.
18. pfcca., no 9, Sep 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
19. CIA. FDD Summary no' 936, 23 May 56, Transportation and
Communications, Electric Power and Construction in the USSR
(No. 22), p. 12. OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
20. Ibid.
CIA. FDD U-205/49. U. Eval. RR 2.
FOIAb3b1
Studies. Current Digest of the
21.
22. CIA. FDD Summary no 487 (3, above), p. 1-25. U. Eval. RR 2.
23. CIA. FDD Summary no 372, 4 Feb 55, Data on USSR Extractive
Industries (No. 3), p. 53. C. Eval. RR 2.
24. Gudok, 8 Jul 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
25. CIA. CIA/RR 1M-404, Significance of Recent Announcements
Concerning the Soviet Railroad Transportation System,
12 Nov 54. S.
26. CIA. FDD Summary no 372 (23, above).
27. CIA. FDD Summary no 487 (3, above).
CIA. FDD Summary no 467, 27 Apr 55, Transportation and
Communications in the USSR No. ? OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
28. CIA. FDD Summ
FOIAb3b1
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FOIAb3b1 29.
30. Ugol:, no 9, Sep 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid.
33. Ibid.
34. CIA. FDD Summary no 487 (3, above), p. 1-25. U. .Eval. RR 2.
35. Ibid.
36. CIA. FDD Summary no 732, 1 Dec 55, Transportation and
Communicationst_Electric Power and Construction in the USSR
(No. 16), p. 5-7. Oil? USE. Eval. RR 2.
Ekonomika transport, Moscow, 1955, p. 186. U. Eval. RR 2.
37. Ugol', no 9, Sep 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
38. CIA. CIA/RR 28 (1, above).
FOIAb3b1 39.
40. Ugoli, no 9, Sep 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
41. Ibid.
42. Ibid.
43. Ibid.
44. Voprosy ekonomiki, Jan 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
A 45. CIA. FDD Summary no 390, 23 Feb 55, Transportation and
Communications in the USSR (No. 7), p. 16. C. Eval. RR 2.
Rechnoy transpprt, 1947, p. 15. U. Eval. RR 2.
Izveptiya, no 213, 8 Sep 55, p. 2. U. Eval. RR 2.
46. Ugpl', no 9, Sep 54. U. Eval. RR 2.
25X1A 47. Gudok, 12 Aug 52. U. Eval. RR 2.
48. Kochetov, V.I. Zheleznodorozhnaya statistika Railroad
Statistics), Moscow, 1948. U. Eval. RR 2.
49. Pravda, 25 Feb 56, p. 8-9. U. Eval. RR 2. (B.P..Beshchev)
50. UN, ECE. Quarterly Bulletin of Coal Statistics for Europe,
25X1A Apr 56, p. 5. U. Eval. RR 2.
51.
atlas SSSR Geografiches1.phica.1AtlasoftheUR),
Moscow, 1954. U. Eval. RR 2.
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