SOVIET BLOC EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM TO THE WEST 1950-54

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• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: July 29, 1955
• Content Type: IR

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.
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FOREIGN NATIONALS
SOVIET BLOC EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM TO THE WEST
1950-54
CIA/RR PR-119
(ORR Project 25.653)
NOTICE
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This report presents a complete 5-year pattern of Soviet Bloc
petroleum exports to the West during the 5-year period from 1950
through 1954. The report covers the origin, quantity, and types of
exports; assesses the significance of these exports; gives an esti-
mate of the dollar value of exports; and evaluates the potential of
the Bloc to export petroleum in 1955. It therefore serves as a
supplement to CIA/RR PR-107, Soviet Bloc Trade in Petroleum and
Petroleum Products: Intra-Bloc and East-West 19 7-53, 6 April 1955,
S NOFORN.
In accordance with the primary responsibility of ORR for economic
intelligence on the Soviet Bloc, this report is concerned only with
the quantities of petroleum which left the Bloc during the period
covered. Such data are necessary in estimating the Bloc's petroleum
supply-demand balances.
The report has been coordinated within CIA but not with all of
the IAC agencies.
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
II. Exports and Export Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
A. Exports in 1954 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
B. Export Trends, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
III. Destination of Soviet Bloc Exports . . . . . . . . . . . 13
IV. Petroleum Export Potential in 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . 14
V. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
VI. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions . . . . . . 17
A. Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
B. Vulnerabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
C. Intentions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Appendixes
Appendix A. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Appendix B. Gaps in Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Appendix C. Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Tables
1. Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West, by Country
of Origin and by Type of Product, 1954 . . . . . . . . . 5
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Page
2. Value of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West,
by Country of Origin and by Type of Product, 1954 . . . 6
3. Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West, by Country
of Origin, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
4. Value of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West,
by Country of Origin, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
5. Quantity Indexes of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to
the West, by Country of Origin, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . 9
6. Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West, by Type of
Product, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
7. Percentage Composition of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petro-
leum to the West, by Type of Product, 1950-54 . . . . . 10
8. Petroleum Exports from the USSR to the West, by Type of
Product, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
9. Petroleum Exports from Rumania to the West, by Type of
Product, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
:LO. Petroleum Exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria to the
Austrian Economy, by Type of Product, 1950-54 . . . . . . 12
:Ll. Petroleum Exports from Other Soviet Bloc Countries to
the West, by Type of Product, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . 13
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Charts
Following Page
Figure 1. Quantity of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to
the West (by country of Origin), 1950-54 . . . 8
Figure 2. Quantity of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to
the West (by Type of Product), 1950-54 . 10
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SOVIET BLOC EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM TO THE WEST*
1950-5
Summary
Soviet Bloc** exports of petroleum to the West in the postwar
period have been steadily increasing. These exports became particu-
larly significant in 1954, when almost 6 million metric tons,***
valued at approximately US $130 million, were exported. The 1954
exports were more than double those of 1953 and were eight times
larger than those of 1950. Almost half of the 1954 total originated
in the USSR. For the first time since 1932, Soviet exports substan-
tially exceeded those of Rumania.****
The magnitude of the 1954 Soviet Bloc petroleum exports to the
West indicates that petroleum has become a major Bloc export item
and an important means of fulfilling the Bloc trade program. In 1954,
exports of petroleum represented about 10 percent of the total dol-
lar value of Bloc trade with the West. Petroleum will continue to
be an important segment of total Bloc exports in the foreseeable
future because of expected further decreases in exports of commodities
such as agricultural products, a traditional major export item, and
the growing potential of the Bloc to export petroleum.
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report repre-
sent the best judgment of ORR as of 1 June 1955.
** In this report the term Soviet Bloc includes the USSR, Albania,
Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and the
Soviet Zone of Austria. During the period covered by the report the
production and refining of petroleum in Austria was concentrated in
the Soviet Zone and was controlled by a Soviet organization, the
Soviet Mineral Oil Administration (Sowjetische Mineraloel Verwaltung --
SMV). Austrian production, therefore, is considered to be part of
the total Bloc supply. Requirements for petroleum and petroleum prod-
ucts in Austria were submitted to the SMV by the central government,
and the SMV made allocations to the Austrian economy. These alloca-
tions are considered as exports to the West.
*** Throughout this report, tonnages are given in metric tons.
**** All export figures in this report refer to the country of origin
of shipment. The fact that one Soviet Bloc country may export petro-
leum to the West on the account of another has not been taken into
consideration.
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On the basis of anticipated production of crude oil in 1955 and
probable increased allocations to the domestic demand sectors, the
1.955 export potential of the Soviet Bloc is estimated at 7.5 million
tons. If allocations to domestic demand sectors were restricted,
exports could reach almost 13 million tons.
During the 1950-54+ period the Soviet Bloc exported crude oil and
all major types of petroleum products. The principal product ex-
ported has been residual fuel oil, followed by gas oil,* gasoline
(only minor quantities of which have been aviation gasoline), Crude
oil, kerosine, and lubricants in that order. These shipments have
gone to 22 Western countries. Except for Austria, Finland has been
the largest market for Bloc petroleum.
Although Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum have considerable eco-
nomic influence in the few Western markets that have become almost
wholly dependent on Bloc supplies, they amounted to less than 3 per-
centof the total 195+ world trade in petroleum. Even if Bloc
petroleum exports reach their estimated maximum in 1955, they will
account for less than 5 percent of the estimated total world trade in
petroleum.
The petroleum export potential of the Soviet Bloc is limited by
production capacity and, to some extent, by consumer demand. The
volume actually exported is limited by the East-West trade policies
of the Bloc, by Western demand, and by the availability of tan':iers
to carry Bloc oil to Western destinations -- almost all of the Bloc
petroleum shipped through the Bosporus is moved in the tankers of
Western countries.
Although the primary motive behind the sharply increased Soviet
Bloc exports of petroleum to the West appears to be economic, the rel-
ative ease with which these exports could be channeled to meet in-
creased military demands is significant. The present magnitude of
petroleum exports suggests that such channeling would provide a
cushion against the deep cuts in allocations to the civil demand
sectors which would otherwise be necessitated in time of war.
* The term gas oil is used in the USSR to designate various grades
of diesel fuel oil.
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I. Introduction.
The USSR and Rumania began exporting crude oil and petroleum
products to the West more than 30 years ago. It was not until the
1930's, however, that these exports became particularly significant.
During the initial stages of the industrialization of the USSR,
petroleum exports to the West served as one means of acquiring
needed imports of machinery. Soviet petroleum exports reached their
highest point in 1932, when 6 million tons were exported. Shortly
thereafter, however, the petroleum industry of the USSR found it dif-
ficult to keep pace with growing domestic demands and to maintain
simultaneously the 1932 export level. Petroleum exports to the West
declined steadily thereafter, and during World War II the USSR became
a net importer of petroleum. J*
Rumanian exports of petroleum to the West began to exceed those of
the USSR in 1933, in 1936 reaching a peak of 6.7 million tons. Ru-
manian exports also declined in the late 1930's and were stopped en-
tirely by World War II- J
Early in the postwar period the Soviet Bloc resumed exporting
petroleum to the West. By 1951, Bloc petroleum exports had become
more than 1 million tons annually. Petroleum exports since 1951 have
risen sharply. This sharp increase and its significance are the major
concern of this report.
II. Exports and Export Trends.
A. Exports in 1954.
Exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the West reached
their highest postwar peak in 1954, when approximately 6 million tons
were exported. One of the most important aspects of the 1954 exports
is that for the first time since 1932, exports originating in the
USSR significantly exceeded those from Rumania. Soviet petroleum ex-
ports, more than 2.6 million tons, were one-third higher than those
of Rumania and constituted about 44 percent of the total Bloc exports.
* For serially numbered source references, see Appendix C.
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Rumanian exports were 33 percent of the total, and exports from the
Soviet Zone of Austria to the Austrian economy constituted about
19 percent. East German and Polish exports accounted for the
remainder.
Soviet Bloc petroleum is exported to the West by tanker,
barge, and rail. Approximately three-fourths of the total 1954 Bloc
petroleum exports were shipped from Black Sea ports by tanker t'arough
the Bosporus. The major portion of the 1954 increase was accounted
for by this type of tanker shipment from the USSR. Almost all of
the Bloc petroleum going through the Bosporus moves in Western
tankers. Only occasionally in 1954 did Soviet tankers carry Western
shipments, and these were on the particularly long hauls to Argentina
or Iceland.
Gas oil and fuel oil comprised about 70 percent of the petro-
leum exports, and gasoline, crude oil, kerosine, and lubricants fol-
lowed in that order. Although some of the gasoline was designated as
"aviation gasoline," this was only a small percentage of the total
gasoline exports. There were only 2 shipments of aviation gasoline
reported -- one of about 7,000 tons to Argentina and one of 11,000 tons
to France. The shipment to Argentina was evidently of higher quality,
grade 100/130, but the shipment to France was of much lower quality,
79 octane. Although the petroleum shipped by the Soviet Bloc to the
West in 1954 varied in quality, it was, on the whole, acceptable to
Western consumers. Bloc exports of petroleum to the West in 19,54,
by country of origin and by type of product, are shown in Table 1.*
The 1954 petroleum trade agreements between the Soviet 'Bloc
and the West were in the form of bilateral barter agreements. It is
difficult, therefore, to place an exact value on Bloc petroleum ex-
ports. Considered on a f.o.b. basis, the price of Bloc petroleum has
probably been more or less competitive with that of Western petroleum
in world trade. World prices, therefore, have been used to place a
dollar value on Bloc exports. The value of Bloc exports of petroleum
to the West in 1954, by country of origin and by type of product, is
shown in Table 2.'
Table 1 follows on p. 5.
Table 2 follows on p. 6.
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B. Export Trends, 1950-54.
The first significant postwar rise in the volume of Soviet Bloc
exports occurred in 1951, when they were almost double those of the
previous year. By 1954, exports were eight times greater than those
in 1950. From 1950 through 1952 the interzonal transfers of petroleum
from the Soviet-controlled organization (SMV) in the Soviet Zone of
Austria to the Austrian economy accounted for over 50 percent of the
total petroleum exports of the Bloc. In 1953, Austrian transfers
became less significant in terms of the total -- Rumanian exports
took the lead only to be exceeded by those of the USSR in the follow-
ing year. Exports of petroleum from other Bloc countries have re-
mained a small percentage of the total.
From 1950 to 1953, petroleum exports were a relatively small
percentage of Soviet Bloc production of crude petroleum. They rose
from 1.5 percent of production in 1950 to 4 percent in 1953. In
1954, however, exports increased to approximately 8 percent of Bloc
production of crude oil.
Compared with the dollar value of total Soviet Bloc trade
with the West during this period, petroleum exports, until recently,
have been relatively unimportant. In 1953, petroleum exports reached
5 percent of the value of total trade, and in 1954 they doubled to
total approximately 10 percent. .2 As a single commodity category,
petroleum has become a major Bloc export item.
Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the West from 1950-54, by
country of origin, are shown in Table 3.* The value of Bloc exports
of petroleum to the West from 1950 to 1954, by country of origin, is
shown in Table 4.* Quantity indexes of Bloc exports of petroleum to
the West from 1950 to 1954, by country of origin, are shown in Table 5.**
* Tables 3 and 4 follow on p. 8.
Table 5 follows on p. 9.
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Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West
by Country of Origin J
1950-54
Thousand Metric Tons
Country of Origin
1950
1951 J
1952 W
1953 -/
195+ J
USSR
69
128
269
518
2,647
Rumania
81
386
611+
1,229
1,951
Soviet Zone of Austria
509
823
927
1,032
1,109
Others
87
8
38
119
271+
Total J
71+6
1,311.5
1, 848
21898
5,980
a. For a graphical presentation of the data in the table, see Figure
1, following p. 8.
b. J
c. Data taken from Table 1, p. 5, above.
d. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of rounded components shown.
Table 4
Value of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West
by Country of Origin a/
1950-54
Million US
Country of Origin
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
USSR
2.5
2.3
5.2
12.0
55.8
Rumania
2.6
7.5
13.1
22.1+
1+1.8
Soviet Zone of Austria
11.4
18.5
19.5
22.1
22.9
Others
2.3
0.3
1.3
3.7
8.5
Total J 18.7 28.5 39.1 60.2 129.0
Average per ton (US $) b 25.09 21.21 21.14 20.77 21.56
a. For methodology, see Appendix A.
b. Totals and averages are derived fron unrounded figures and do
not always agree with the sum of rounded components shown.
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Figure 1
QUANTITY OF SOVIET BLOC
(By country of origin)
1950-54
Totals ore derived From unrounded
figures and do not always agree
with rounded data shown.
L345 a
12 . ,.,
EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM
TO THE WEST
Others
USSR
Rumania
927
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Table 5
Quantity Indexes of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West
by Country of Origin J
1950-54
1950 =
100
Country of Origin
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
USSR
100
186
390
751
3,836
Rumania
100
477
758
1,517
2,409
Soviet Zone of Austria
100
162
182
203
218
Others
100
9
44
137
315
Total Soviet Bloc
100
180
248
388
802
a. Data computed from Table 3.
During the 5-year period covered in this report the Soviet Bloc
has exported all the major types of petroleum products to the West.
Except for 1950, crude oil has also been exported, most of it origi-
nating in the USSR. Bloc exports of petroleum to the West from 1950 to
1954, by type of product, are shown in Table 6.* The percentage compo-
sition of the Bloc exports of petroleum to the West from 1950 to 1954,
by type of product, is shown in Table 7.*
The USSR played a relatively minor part in Soviet Bloc post-
war petroleum exports until 1954, when its exports rose to over 2.6
million tons compared with 69,000 tons in 1950. When analyzed by
type of product, these exports show no consistency over the period.
In 1950, gasoline was more than three-fourths of the total exports,
but in 1951 fuel oil took the lead, comprising more than half of the
exports. In 1952, crude oil replaced fuel oil as the leading product,
accounting for over 68 percent of the total, and in 1953 gas oil be-
came the single most important item, accounting for 41 percent of the
exports. In 1954, fuel oil regained its place as the leading petro-
leum export item, making up 41 percent of the total. Petroleum ex-
ports from the USSR to the West from 1950 to 1954, by type of product,
are shown in Table 8.**
* Tables 6 and 7 follow on p. 10.
** Table 8 follows on p. 11.
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Table 6
Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West
by Type of Product
1950-54
Type of Product
1950 11/
1951 J
1952 =/
1953 2
1951 2
Crude oil
0
29
184
152
418
Gasoline
225
279
406
449
863
Kerosine
41
54
49
100
376
Gas oil
217
195
245
639
1,336
Residual fuel oil
206
738
913
1,501
2,907
Lubricants
57
50
51
57
80
Total
746
1,345
1,848
2,898
5,980
a. For a graphical presentation of the data in this table, see
Figure 2, following p. 10.
b. J
c. Data taken from Table 1, p. 5, above.
Percentage Composition of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum
to the West, by Type of Product a/
1950-54
Type of Product
L!150
1951
1952
1953
Crude oil
0
2
10
5
7
Gasoline
30
21
22
16
15
Kerosine
5
4
3
3
6
Gas oil
29
14
13
22
22
Residual fuel oil
28
55
49
52
~+9
Lubricants
8
4
3
2
1
a. Data taken from Table 6.
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QUANTITY OF SOVIET BLOC
EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM
TO THE WEST
(By type of product)
1950-54
Figure 2
Crude Oil
Lubricants
Kerosine
Gasoline
Gas Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
1950
13777 7-55
29
-50
54
fig
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Table 8
Petroleum Exports from the USSR to the West
by Type of Product
1950-54
Type of Product
1950
_/
1951 J
1952
_/
1953 -a/
1954
Crude oil
0
29
184
142
418
Gasoline
53
13
8
65
197
Kerosine
7
7
9
3
169
Gas oil
4
0
35
212
744
Residual fuel oil
0
74
31
92
1,094
Lubricants
5
5
2
3
25
Total
69
128
269
218
2,647
b. Data taken from Table 1, p. 5, above.
In Rumania, however, the types of petroleum products exported
have followed a pattern. Fuel oil became the most important petroleum
export in 1951 and did not relinquish its primary position through
1954. Except for small shipments in 1951 and 1953, Rumania has ex-
ported neither lubricants nor crude oil. Petroleum exports from
Rumania to the West from 1950 to 1954, by type of product, are shown
in Table 9.*
Of all the major Soviet Bloc exporters, Austria, in its inter-
zonal transfers, has maintained the most constant export pattern,
with fuel tail the most important product, followed by gas oil, gasoline,
lubricants, and kerosine in that order. From 1950 to 1954 there have
been no exports of crude oil from the SMV organization in the Soviet Zone
of Austria to the Austrian economy. Petroleum exports from the Soviet
Zone of Austria to the Austrian economy from 1950 to 1954, by type of
product, are shown in Table 10.*
* Tables 9 and 10 follow on p. 12.
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Table 9
Petroleum Exports from Rumania to the West
by Type of Product
1950-54
Thousand Metric Tons
Type of Product
1950 a/
1951 J
1952 J
1953 J
1954 -_
Crude oil
0
0
0
10
0
Gasoline
42
95
207
151
395
Kerosine
7
8
4
73
180
Gas oil
32
6
23
143
241
Residual fuel oil
Negligible
274
380
851
1,133
Lubricants
Negligible
2
0
0
0
Total
81
386
614
1,229
1,951
a-
b. Data taken from Table 1, p. 5, above.
Petroleum Exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria
to the Austrian Economy, by Type of Product
1950-54
Thousand Metric Tons
Type of Product 19 O J 1951 J 1952 W 1953 / 1-954
Crude oil
0
0
0
0
0
Gasoline
16
168
188
158
Kerosine
27
7
40
37
24
26
Gas oil
147
187
172
209
190
Residual fuel oil
200
390
502
558
68o
Lubricants
44
43
48
54
55
509
823
927
1,032
1,109
a. 10
b. Data taken from Table 1r p. 5, above.
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For the last 4 years, other Soviet Bloc countries have ex-
ported only gasoline and gas oil to the West. Petroleum exports
from other Bloc countries to the West from 1950 to 1954, by type of
product, are shown in Table 11.
Petroleum Exports from Other Soviet Bloc Countries
to the West, by Type of Product
1950-54
Type of Product
1950 J 1 59 1 ) 1952 a~ 1953) 1954 J
Crude oil
0
0
0
0
0
Gasoline
39
6
23
45
113
Kerosine
0
0
0
0
0
Gas oil
34
2
15
74
161
Residual fuel oil
6
o
0
0
0
Lubricants
8
0
0
0
0
87
8
38
119
274
a. 11
b. Data taken from Table 1, p. 5, above.
III. Destination of Soviet Bloc Exports.
From 1950 to 1952 the Soviet Bloc exported petroleum to the follow-
ing Western countries: Finland, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Norway,
Egypt, the Netherlands, Afghanistan, Austria, West Germany, and the
UK. In 1953, France, Greece, Turkey, Denmark, Iceland, and Switzerland
were added to the list; and in 1954, Algeria, Argentina, India, Israel,
and Yugoslavia were importers of Bloc petroleum.
The major Western markets for petroleum from East Germany and the
Soviet Zone of Austria are, of course, West Germany and the Aus-
trian economy. Almost all of the petroleum shipped to other Western
countries originates in the USSR and Rumania. In 1950, nearly
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APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
Most of the figures for Soviet and Rumanian exports are contained
in reports and cables from Ankara which list tanker shipments through
the Bosporus. Except for 64,090 tons of the Soviet total and 35,000
tons of the Rumanian total, which are estimated from fragmentary data,
the figures are summations of individual shipment figures contained
in these reports. The methodology for the estimates is as follows:
1. Soviet Exports.
a. To Afghanistan.
The 1954 trade agreement between the USSR and Afghanistan
includes petroleum products, but no specific data have been found on
actual 1954 exports. It is probable that exports were in the same
order of magnitude in 1954 as in 1953. The 1953 estimates of 8,000
tons of gasoline and 2,000 tons of kerosine contained in source 1.4/
are therefore used for 1954.
Most of the shipments of petroleum to Finland in 1954
were made by tanker through the Bosporus. Some lubricants and kero-
sine, however, went by rail. This type of shipment is established
in source 15/. Exports to Finland by all Soviet means of transpor-
tation (tanker and rail) from 1 January 1954 to 31 October 1954 are
listed in source L6/. This source reports that 445,890 barrels of
kerosine and 78,730 barrels of lubricants were received during the
first 10 months of 1954. Converted to tons, these exports amount to
57,534 tons of kerosine and 11,247 tons of lubricants. When the amount
of kerosine passing through the Bosporus from December 1953 through
September 1954 (to match receipts in Finland from January through
October 1954) is subtracted from the total of 57,534 tons, a remainder
of approximately 12,000 tons is obtained. This represents a 10 month
figure which, projected to 12 months, amounts to approximately 14,000
tons of kerosine shipped by rail. There were no reported exports of
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lubricants by tanker through the Bosporus to Finland, and the figure
of approximately 11,000 tons obtained from source L7/ is therefore
projected from 10 to 12 months. A total of 13,000 tons of lubricants
results from this calculation and represents Soviet rail shipments
of lubricants to Finland in 1954.
c. To Turkey.
Trade between the USSR and Turkey is covered in a series
of reports from Ankara containing information for 8 months of 1954
and reporting shipments of 7,800 tons of gasoline in February,
7,738
tons of gasoline in April, and 2,669 tons of kerosine in July.
18
These figures were projected to obtain a 12-month estimate as
follows:
Gasoline Exports
Metric Tons
Total reported
15,538
Monthly average
(15,538
+ 8)
1,942
12-month total
(1,942 x 12)
23,304 (rounded to 23,000)
Kerosine Exports Metric Tons
Total reported 2,669
Monthly average (2 669 + 8) 334
12-month total (33f x 12) 4,008 (rounded to 4,000)
d. Recapitulation of Estimated 1954 Soviet Exports.
Metric Tons
Destination
Gasoline
Kerosine
Lubricants
Total
Afghanistan
8,000
2,000
0
10,000
Finland
0
14,000
13,000
27,000,
Turkey
23,000
4,000
0
27,OOC,
Total
31,000
20,000
13,000
64,00c,.
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2. Rumanian Exports.
a. To Austria.
Source L9/ reports the receipt by the Allied Zones of
Austria of 6,000 tons of fuel oil in November 1954 and the scheduling
of an additional 14,000 tons before the end of. the year.
b. To Turkey.
Trade between Rumania and Turkey is covered in a series
of reports from Ankara containing information for 8 months of 1954
and reporting shipments of 6,500 tons of kerosine in February, 1,000
tons of kerosine in May, and 2,384 tons of kerosine in June. 20 These
figures were projected to obtain a 12-month estimate as follows:
Kerosine Exports Metric Tons
Total reported 9,884
Monthly average (9,884 + 8) 1,236
12-month total (1,236 x 12) 14,832 (rounded to 15)000)
c. Recapitulation of Estimated 1954 Rumanian Exports.
Destination Fuel Oil Kerosine Total
Austria 20,000 0 20,000
Turkey 0 15,000 15,000
Total 20,000 15,000 35,000
3. Other Soviet Bloc Countries.
a. East German Exports.
(1) To Sweden.
Exports of diesel fuel from East Germany to Sweden
for 6 months of 1954 are reported in source Li j, in terms of Swedish
crowns, C.i.f. Sweden. This figure was converted to tons on the
basis of the relationship to given 1953 tonnage and c.i.f. crown
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value of diesel fuel imports from East Germany. The estimate w9,s cal-
culated as follows:
Diesel Fuel Exports -- Value Swedish Crowns, C.I.:F_
January through June 1954 700,000
January through December 1953 1,858,000
Diesel Fuel Exports -- Quantity Metric Tons
January through June 1954 4,414 (calculated below)
January through December 1953 11,715
1,858,000 Swedish crowns + 11,715 = 158.6 Swedish crowns, c.i.f. per
ton in 1953
700,000 Swedish crowns + 158.6 = 4,414 tons, January through
June 1954
4,414 tons x 2 (expansion to 12 months) = 8,828 tons, or 9,000
tons estimated for 1954.
(2) To Switzerland.
Exports to Switzerland for 5 months of 1954 are reported
in source L 2j. A monthly average was determined and multiplied by 12
to obtain a yearly estimate of 50,000 tons of gasoline and 38,000 tons
of diesel fuel.
(3) To the Netherlands.
Exports to the Netherlands for 5 months of 1954 are
reported in source 23/. A monthly average was determined and aulti-
p:lied by 12 to obtain a yearly estimate of 13,000 tons of gasoline and
15,000 tons of diesel fuel.
(4) To West Germany.
Exports are estimated to equal the amounts included in
the interzonal trade agreement -- 90,000 tons of diesel fuel and 50,000
tons of gasoline, as given In source 24 .
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b. Polish Exports to Sweden.
Exports of diesel fuel from Poland to Sweden for 6
months of 1954 are reported in source 25 These exports are re-
ported in terms of Swedish crowns, c.i.f. Sweden. The methodology
used to arrive at the tonnages is as follows:
Diesel Fuel Exports -- Value Swedish Crowns, C.I.F.
January through June 1954 400,000
January through December 1953 1,373,000
Diesel Fuel Exports -- Quantity Metric Tons
January through June 1954 4,306 (calculated below)
January through December 1953 14,776 (reported in source 26 )
1,373,000 Swedish crowns + 14,776 = 92.9 Swedish crowns c.i.f. per
ton in 1953-
400,000 Swedish crowns + 92.9 = 4,306 tons, January through June
1954.
4,306 x 2 (expansion to 12 months) = 8,612 tons, or 9,000 tons
estimated for 1954-
c. Recapitulation of Estimated 1954 Exports from Other Soviet
Bloc Countries.
East Germany
Poland
Destination
Diesel Fuel
Gasoline
Diesel Fuel
Total
Sweden
9,000
0
9,000
18,000
Switzerland
38,000
50,000
0
88,ooo
The Netherlands
15,000
13,000
0
28,000
West Germany
90,000
50,000
0
140,000
152,000
113,000
9,000
274,000
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II. Tables 2 and 4.
The value of Soviet Bloc exports to the West is expressed in
terms of world prices. Although some individual shipments re-
portedly have been offered at below the world price, it is probable
that Bloc petroleum on the whole has been sold on the market at
prices generally competitive with Western petroleum. Source 27 was
utilized for value data from 1950 through 1953. The price used for
all products except lubricants was Gulf Coast cargoes, f.o.b., min-
imum shipment 20,000 barrels.* The price used for lubricants was
South Texas, f.o.b. refineries, domestic and/or export shipment.*
The prices for the following products were selected:
Product Description
Motor gasoline 79 octane
Kerosine 41-43 gravity, water white
Gas oil Average of 43-47, 48-52, and 53-57 diesel index
Fuel oil Bunker "C " fuel
Lubricating oil 100 viscosity at 1000 F, No. 1-1/2 to 2-1/2 color
The price used for crude oil was the eastern Mediterranean price for
36--36.9 gravity crude. All prices given in this source are in cents
per gallon or dollars per barrel; these were converted to dollars per
metric ton on the basis of the following conversion factors:
Gallons per Metric Ton
Barrels per Metric Ton
Motor Gasoline
357
8.5
Kerosine
326
7.75
Gas oil
313
7.46
Fuel oil
280
6.66
Lubricants
294
7.0
Crude oil
315
7.5
Source 281, used as the basis for the 1954 values, also gives 1953
prices. The percentage increase or decrease, 1954 over 1953, was
calculated for the various products listed. This percentage increase
or decrease was then applied to the 1953 price data in source 29 to
obtain the 1954 value figures.
* These US prices quoted in the source are equivalent to the prices
of petroleum products in world trade.
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all exports were destined for Finland; in 1951, 1952, and 1953, slight-
ly more than one-third of the exports was destined for Finland; and in
1954 only about one-fifth of the exports was destined for Finland,
Sweden receiving about the same percentage. Perhaps the most signifi-
cant countries appearing for the first time in 1954 as Western im-
porters of Soviet petroleum were Argentina and Yugoslavia -- Argentina
because it ranked a high third among the importers and Yugoslavia be-
cause of its re-emergence as a trading partner of the Soviet Bloc.
Although total Soviet Bloc petroleum exports in 1954 amounted to
less than 3 percent* of the petroleum in world trade,, this amount had
considerable local economic influence. Such influence was particu-
larly significant in countries like Finland, Iceland, and Afghanistan,
which were largely dependent on the Bloc for their petroleum supplies.
IV. Petroleum Export Potential. in 1955.
To estimate the petroleum export potential of the Soviet Bloc in
1955, it is necessary to establish the probable magnitude of Bloc
production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and synthetic oils. On
the basis of preliminary information and extrapolation of general
trends, production of these components for 1955 is forecasted at
about 82 million tons, about 7 million tons greater than the 1954 level
of output. It will be noted that in 1954 the Bloc exported about 6
million tons of petroleum to the West (see Table 1**), which left about
69 million tons for Bloc domestic demands and stock changes. By ap-
plying the estimated annual rate of growth of domestic demands in the
USSR of 8 percent in 1954 and 1955 12 to the 1954 Bloc domestic
demands and stock change estimate of 69 million tons, a 1955 estimate
of Bloc domestic petroleum demands of about 74.5 million tons is cal-
culated. On the basis of this calculation, it is estimated that the
Bloc may have available for export to the West about 7.5 million
tons of petroleum in 1955 (82 million tons production less 74.,i
million tons domestic demand).
This estimate is consistent with the trend in petroleum exports
during the past few years. Since 1951, petroleum exports have been
increasing each year. In 1954 there was a particularly sharp increase
* Estimated.
** P. 5, above.
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which coincided with diminished Soviet Bloc exports of agricultural
products resulting from inadequate production. In short, petroleum
exports increased while agricultural exports declined.
In view of the likelihood that exports of such items as agri-
cultural commodities may continue to decline, the Soviet Bloc may
intensify its efforts to export petroleum in 1955. Exports over and
above the 7.5-million-ton estimate could be made only by restricting
the growth of domestic demand -- it is considered improbable that
Bloc production will exceea the 82-million-ton estimate for 1955.
It may be possible to hold allocation? of petroleum to domestic de-
mand sectors at their 195+ levels. If this could be done, the Bloc
demands would be about 69 million tons, leaving some 13 million tons
for export to the West.
A minimum of 7.5 million tons and a maximum of 13 million tons
are the most probable limits within which the Soviet Bloc exports of
petroleum to the West in 1955 are likely to fall. Of course, basic
changes in Bloc trade policies toward the West could affect greatly
the quantity of petroleum exported. It is of interest to note, how-
ever, that agreements with Western buyers, as of January 1955, indi-
cated a total Bloc export of about 7.5 million tons of petroleum for
the year, 13 which corresponds with what has been estimated as the
probable export potential of the Bloc. Although the Bloc has not
always fulfilled trade agreements in the past, additional agreements
later in the year may well compensate for any failures in fulfilling
those signed earlier.
In forecasting actual 1955 Soviet Bloc exports to the West, the
Bloc petroleum export potential is not the sole determining factor.
Western demand for Bloc petroleum must also be considered. The major
factors which affect this demand are (1) the quality of Bloc crude
oil and the quality and types of petroleum products offered for sale;
(2) the relationship between Bloc prices and those of traditional
suppliers; and (3) the availability of Western markets of exchange
suitable for the purchase of Western petroleum, as opposed to the
availability of commodities suitable for bartering to the Bloc for
petroleum. The analysis of these factors does not fall within the
scope of this report.
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V. Conclusions.
The movement of Soviet Bloc petroleum into world markets in in-
creasing quantities has great significance to the Bloc, but it has
only local significance to the West. Petroleum exports have become a
valuable means of implementing the Bloc trade program, which is hampered
by the decline in the availability for export of items such as agri-
cultural products. Petroleum, one of the few commodities that the Bloc
can export in relatively large quantities and can market in the West,
has become one of the leading items of export. In terms of world
prices, petroleum exports to the West in 1954 earned for the Bloc the
equivalent of nearly US $130 million. In 1955 the potential petro-
leum exports of the Bloc are estimated to have a value ranging from
US $162 million to US $280 million. Most of the petroleum has been
exported on a barter basis to the West, and these estimates are in-
tended only as indicators of the money value of the 1955 export
potential.
Even though 1955 Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the West should
reach the estimated maximum of nearly 13 million tons, they would prob-
ably account for less than 5 percent of total world petroleum trade.
Because petroleum demands in the Eastern Hemisphere, which contains most
of the petroleum export markets of the Bloc, are increasing by about
17 million tons annually, future Bloc exports can be expected to have
only minor significance in world petroleum trade.
Conceivably,. Soviet Bloc petroleum exports to the West could have
a more subtle and far-reaching significance. By restricting the growth
of domestic demand while increasing production, the Bloc has succeeded
since 1950 in increasing rapidly the quantity of petroleum exports.
On. short notice the Bloc could stop exporting petroleum to the West,
and in the event of hostilities this petroleum could be channeled
directly to meet military demands. This, in turn, would reduce the
relative magnitude of reductions in allocations to civil demand
sectors. Without such a cushion the outbreak of war could result
in such deep reductions in allocations to civil demand sectors that
the economy would be seriously affected. At present, however, Bloc
petroleum export policy appears to be based primarily on econom.c
motives and has resulted in no apparent economic disadvantage to the
Bloc.
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VI. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions.
A. Capabilities.
The 1955 petroleum export potential of the Soviet Bloc is
judged to be 7.5 million tons and could reach a maximum of 13 million
tons. This export potential is limited by the production capabilities
of the Bloc and by the extent to which domestic consumption can be
curtailed.
B. Vulnerabilities.
The volume of Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the West
is vulnerable to the extent that it is limited by Western demand and
by the availability of tankers to carry Bloc petroleum to Western
destinations.
Although present Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum appear to be
based primarily on economic motives, these exports could be easily
channeled to meet increased military demands in case of war.
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APPENDIX B
GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE
Soviet Bloc petroleum exports shipped to the West by tanker
through the Bosporus from the USSR and Rumania are reported in con-
siderable detail on a current basis. Allocations to the Austrian
economy from the Soviet Zone of Austria and to West Germany from
East Germany are readily available. The gaps in information are on
relatively minor exports from the USSR and Rumania which do not go
through the Bosporus, and current detail on exports from other Bloc
countries to destinations in the West. There is not sufficient
information on specific f.o.b. prices of total Bloc petroleum ex-
ports. It is believed., however, that they are sufficiently compet-
itive with Western petroleum prices to warrant valuation on that
basis.
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APPENDIX C
SOURCE REFERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance:
Source of Information
Doc. - Documentary
A - Completely reliable
B - Usually reliable
C - Fairly reliable
D - Not usually reliable
E - Not reliable
F - Cannot be judged
1 - Confirmed by other sources
2 - Probably true
3 - Possibly true
4 - Doubtful
5 - Probably false
6 - Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff
officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the
cited document; those designated RR are by the author of this report.
No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation
on the cited document.
1. State, OIR. Rpt no 2971, 1 Apr 47, Russian Oil Export
Marketing Policies in the Prewar Period, p. viii-x, 99, R.
2. Esso Standard Oil Company, Coordination and Economic
Department. Soviet Controlled Oil in World Markets, 16
Dec 53, U. Eval. RR 3.
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:3.
25X1A
As corrected by:
State, Jerusalem. Teletype from Israeli Home Service in
Hebrew, 19 Jul 51+, U. Eval. RR 2.
25X1A
As corrected by:
State, Cairo. Dsp 21+68, 15 Apr 51+, Further Developments
Relating to Egyptian Importation of Rumanian and Russian
Oil, info Apr 54, CIA D19530, U OFT' USE. Eval. RR 2.
State, Cairo. Dsp 2573, 29 Apr 54, Arrival of Second
Shipment of Rumanian Petroleum, info Apr 5 4,, CIA D22032,
U /OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
25X1A
25X1A
ate, Jerusalem. Teletype, op, cit.
As corrected by:
25X1A
25X1A2g
25X1A
e, Istanbul. Dsp 136, 4 Oct 51+, In Transit Ship Move-
ments through the Bosporus, info 26-30 Sep 54, CIA 79578k,
2 USE. Eval. RR 3.
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25X1A
Navy, Ankara. (The following series of cables was used for
fourth-quarter export figures.)
October
25X1A
As corrected by:
25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
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25X1A
December
25X1A
Cargo of one tanKer n u port changed
from 20,000 tons to 2,000 tons on basis of known
GRT of tanker.)
25X1A
25X1A 1+.
Domestic Fuel Oil to the Evidenz Buro Pool for Use in
Western Austria, info 1954, CIA. D14O159, C. Eval.: RR 2.
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5. Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. Official
Statistics of Western Countries, U. Eval. RR 3-
6. CIA. CIA RR PR-107, Soviet Bloc Trade in Petroleum and
Petroleum Products: Intra-Bloc and East-West, 1 7-53,
6 Apr 55, S NOFORN.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. CIA. CIA/RR Research Aid, Civil Consumption of Petroleum
Products in the USSR 1 4 -5 , 27 Sep 5 ORR Project
25.1 86), SUS ONLY.
13. "Rising Russian Exports," Petroleum Press Service, vol 22,
no 2, Feb 55, p. 37-40, U. Eval. RR 2.
14. CIA. CIA/RR PR-107, op. cit. (6, above).
25X1A2g 16.
17. Ibid.
18. State, Ankara. Dsp 123, 10 Sep 54, Turkish Foreign Trade with
Soviet Bloc, info Apr 54, CIA D14305, U. Eval. RR 2.
State, Ankara. Dsp 168, 14 Oct 54, Turkish Foreign Trade with
25X1A
Soviet Bloc, info Jul 54, CIA D1435 7, U. Eval. RR 2.
19. State, Vienna. Dsp 674, 16 Dec 54, Curtailed Deliveries of
Domestic Fuel Oil to the Evidenz Buro /Pool/ for Use in
Western Austria, info 195, IA D14015% C. Eval. RR 2.
20. State, Ankara. Dsp 131, 16 Sep 54, Turkish Foreign Trade with
Soviet Bloc, info May 54, CIA D93o49, U. Eval. RR 2.
State, Ankara. Dsp 132, 16 Sep 54, Turkish Foreign Trade with
Soviet Bloc, info Jun 54, CIA D93727, U. Eval. RR 2.
25X1A
Statistics for 1953 and First Hai-f-1?54,, info 1953-54, -
CIA D77 99, U/OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
22.
25X1A2g
25X1A
S -E-C -R-E-T
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000900130007-9
25X1 A2g23 .
25X1A
24. State, Hamburg. Dsp 215, 26 Mar 51+, Communist Petroleum: How
Much Will Germany Take? p. 4, info 1954, CIA D11457, C.
Eval. RR 3.
State, HICOG, Bonn. Dsp 3308, 23 Jun 51+, West German Govern-
mental Pressure on Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey to Im ort
Petroleum Products from East Zone info 1954; CIA 1E390, C.
Eval. RR 3.
25. State, Stockholm. Dsp 235, 13 Sep 51+, Petroleum Products -
Statistics for 1953 and First Half 1954, info 1953-54+
CIA D778991 U/OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
26. Ibid.
27. Platt's Oil Price Handbook and Oilmanac for 1953, 30th ann ed,
New York, 1954, U. Eval. RR 1.
28. National Petroleum News, Jan 55, P. 133, U. Eval. RR I.
29. Platt's Oil Price Handbook and Oilmanac for 1953, 30th ann ed,
New York, 1954, U. Eval. RR 1.
CZr-'E-'E-T
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 SECRET
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000900130007-9