CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS BY SOVIET AGRICULTURE

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July 17, 1953
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Approved For Release 19c0111044WVIIIMP79-01093A000400020002-1 11411.111-1-111?til"-- SECURITY INFORMATION PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT ? CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS BY SOVIET AGRICULTURE CIA/RR PR-34 17 July 1953 NOTICE The data and conclusions contained in this report do not necessarily represent the final position of ORB and should be regarded as provisional only and subject to revision. Additional data or comments uhich may be available to the user are solicited. WARNING THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITKO STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAU,, TITLE 18, USG, SECS. 793 AND 794, ME TRANS- MISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MINER TO AN UNAUTHORTZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports .surbriamia DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS, 0 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: NEXT REVIEW DATE: AUTH: HR -2 DATE REVIEWER: S6 Approved For Release I9,11197102.1' e1r-P51579-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 --717MTIAV COMMITS Page Summary . .... . ? . . OOOOOOOOOOO . .?006 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 1 1. Introduction . . 4 a OOOO 0 0.1.? 000 0 ? 0000 ? 0 0 ? 1 2. Breakdown of Consumption iopacia00pao0?0?0000* 2 a. By Type of Agricultural Macavine ? 6 ?0 0 0 0 0.0 00a? a 2 b . By Petroleum Product . ? ? 0 af?VOGOO? a ? a . 5 c. By Economic Region' , ? 0 ? 4 OOO ****** Oa . 6 Mpendixes Appendix A. Methodology . . . 00000a? ?090?0? ?00 0 0.0. 8 1. Agricultural Tractors . . ?......?.......? on 0 8 a. 1940, 1947, and 1951 . . 4 ? 00.04006000060 a 8 b. 1950 and 1952-55 . . 0 0 0 0 0 ? a 0 a 0 0 ??? 0 a 0 4 0 1.2 2, CoMbines ......... . . . . *a a 0 ? 0 0 0. 0 16 O401 a. Prewar . ...?..?...? ? 414V19.0 4** 0 0 b. Postwar . ? 0 0 0 G0 a a a0 6 a0 IV? 0 IOa 0 0 3. Stationary Motors in Agriculture and Tractors in the ?17 .17 TiMber Industry .........? ?....... . 19 4. Preliminary Estimates of the Consumption of Petroleum Products by Nbtor Transport in Agriculture . . . 20 Appendix B. Gaps in Intelligence .?.* 06000060 ? 0 ? ? 23 1. Agricultural Tractors . 6 0 9 0 0 ? 0 0 ? 0 0 0 0 0 * 0 0 23 a. 19400 1947, and 1951 ? 06000/0004000 0 a V 9 0 23 b.. 1950 . . ? . 06?04 0000?400 a a a 23 c* 1952..55 0 .0 00100 000000000000?00-' 0 0 0 0 0 23 2. Combines ?0 9, 0 0 7 m.004,1000 acoaaaaa?? a 0 0 0 0 24 3. Stationary Mbtors. in Agriculture and Tractors in the TiMber Industry ? V V ? 0 " 24 Approved For Release 1999/09/01:-CDADP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/0910-2--:-CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 11111NEMONMEr..-. Pace 4, Motor Transport in Agriculture. . . . . . . . ? . . . . . . . 24 5, Possible Further Refinements . . . . . . . .. . . . 0. . ? . 24 Appendix C, Sources and Evaluation of Sources . . .. . . . . . 0, 1 . . 26 Chart FolialnaLEwe Ettimated Consumption of Petrolemu Products by Agriculture in the USSR O.041q0,10 ?00o00a0000OPOOap0001 Approved For For Release 1999/09/0,2 : cIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 AV- - Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 CIA/RR PR-1. (ORR Project 25.16.1) ? mama INFMIATION CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS BY SOVIET AGRICULTURE* Summary The importance of agricultural traztors, cotbines, and stationary motors as consumers of. petroleum products is illustrated by the fact that these units consumed over 30 percent of the distillate petroleum products -- gasoline, ligroine? kerosene, and diesel fuel -- manufactured In the USSR in 1951. 'Coneumption of petroleum products by these units in- creased from 5.5 million to 7.6 million metric tons per year between 1940 and 1951. Based on the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55), agricultural con- sumption** should increase to 13.5 million metric tons by 1955. Traetore account for a very large pert of the consumption of petroleUm products by Soviet agriculturee As a result, tractor kerosene is the most important Soviet agricultural fuel. Kerosene represented 58 percent of ell agricultural consumption in 1951. Diesel fuel, however, is becoming increasingly important as a tractor fuel, Diesel fuel accounted for only 3 percent of the total fuel consumption, by agriculture in 1940, whereas it -will account for almpst 29 percent of the total in 1955. Iigroine, important before the war as a tractor fuel, has become less significant in the postwar period. Consumption of lubricants by agriculture is on the increase, partly because of the heavier regnirements of diesel tractors for lubricants. It is believed that a considerable degree of confidence may-be placed In these estimates, since, it has been possible to derive data from Soviet sources for 1940, 1947, and 1951. Forecasts incladed in this report are based on an acceptance of the data in the Fifth Five Year Plan, 1. Introduction. Mae significamoe of agriculture an a consumer of petroleum products in the USSR is indicated by the fact that agricultural tractors, combines, * This report contains information as of 31 December 1952. ** The consumption of petroleum products by motor transport in agriculture Is not reported in the body of the text, but a preliminary estimate is given in Appendix A4 Section 4. (.11.06.0.1110?01.0.91.041.14.1?., Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED and stationary motors are estimated to have consumed more than 18 percent of all the petralsemIrroducts produced in the USSR in 1951. Nbre important, theee units consumed over 30 percent of all the distillate petroleum products (gasoline, heroine,. kerosene, and diesel) produced in the USSR in the same year. These are the petroleum products whien have particular strategic importance, eince they include the principal military fuels, 2. tatlEloatt511.22122mtlm. a. a_apas..f.kzlm1_-_tur iachine The estimated consumption of petroleum products by sericulture in the USSR during 1940-55 is summarized in Table 1* and on the accompanyine chart* These eetimates include the petroleum products consueed by tractor's, cobbines, and stationary motors in sericulture and the retroleum products consumed by tractors in the timber industry. The anounts of petroleum products used for the generation of electric power in agricultural iastallations in the USSR are not included in these estimates. The petroleum products consumed by motor transport in Soviet aericulture are also excluded from the present estimates, eince it ie more convenient, 'when detainer with the consumption of petroleum products in the USSR, to treat all motor transport as a unit. -It is, hcerever, recognized that there is occasional need for estinates of the consumption of petroleum products by notor transport in Soviet aericulture, atd prelindnary order-of-mamlitude estimntes for this item are presented in Appendix Al Section 4, Frmn 1-11P data presented in Table 1 and the accompaeying chart, it maybe noted that consumption of petroleum products by the agricultural machines indicated is estimated to have increased from a total of 5,5 million metric tons in 1940 to approximately 706 million metric tons in 19511 an increase of about 36 percent. Projected consumption in 1955, based on data from the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55), reaches a level of almost 13,5 million metric tons. This level would represent an increase of 145 percent over the prewar level and of about 105 percent over the 1950 level, Consieerable confidence may be placed in the estimates of past ana present consumption of petroleum products by aericelltural tractors, az presented in Table 1. This is especially true for the estimates for 1940, 1947, and 1951, where the range of error should not exceed plus or minus 5 percent, since these estimates are based on Soviet figures conzernine consumption of petroleum products (see Appendix A). In the case of estimates * Table 1 folloes on *I* The chart, Estimated Consumption of Petroleueertoducts by Agriculture In the USSR, 1940, 1947-55, follows p, 2 e RESTRICMD Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 13 13 0 CD 0- RESTRICm4D Table 1 Estimated Consumption /* of Petroleum Products by Agricultu_e in the USSR *b.' by Types of Msehinei 1940, 1947, and 1950-55 91 Million Metric Tons X aT 1940 1947 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 m m 0 m Agricultural Tractors _.% CAD CAD Gasoline CAD Licroine 8 Kerosene CAD 8 Diesel K3 Lubricants .. 0 5; Subtotal 5.09 4,38 6.16 7,07 8.34 2t,12 11.14 12,71 33 0 Combines -a .4 , Gasoline 0.35 0.26 0.30 0.41 0.51 0.57 0.62 0.66 CAD O lubricants 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0,01 _.% CAD Sabtotal 0.36 0.27 0.31 0,42 0.52 0.58 0.63 0.67 c) GI I> c) Stationary Motors and the Timber c) Industry c) 4b. c) c) Gasoline0,05 0.05 0.05 D c) iesel D.A. 0,05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0?05 K3 ISI,A- 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0.05 0,05 c) c) c) Subtotal 0,05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 0,10 0,10 0.10 l') -a 0.06 0.07 0.13 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.27 0.88 0.53 0.38 0.39 0.44 0.47 0.52 0.56 3.51 3.32 4.01 4.40 4.84 5.43 6.02 6.65 0.17 0.05 1.00 1.40 1.98 2.52 3.13 3.81 0.47 0.41 0.64 0.74 0.90 1.06 1.23 1.41 * Footnotes to Table I follow on p, - 3 - BESTRICMD 1.-Z000Z000000VE601.0-6/dCIN-V10 : Z0/60/6661. eseeieN .10d peA0iddV 1.-Z000Z000000VE601.0-6/dCW-V10 : Z0/60/6661. eseeieN .10d peA0.1ddV RESMICTED Table 1 < Estimated Consumption W of Petroleum Products by Agriculture in the USSR 12/ by Types of Machines' 1940,, 1947, and 1950-55 (Contimed) Million Metric Tons CD a. 11 0 CD ET' C,) CD 194o 1947 195o 1951 1952 1954 1955 -a .1953 CAD CAD Total CAD 25 Gasoline o.46 0.38 0.48 0.60 0.74 0.83 0,91 0.98 CAD Ligroine o.88 0.53 0.38 0.39 0.44 0.47 0.52 0.56 Kerosene 3.51 3.32 4.01 4.40 4.04 5.43 6.02 6.65 Diesel 0.17 0.05 1_05 1.45 2.03 2.57 3,18 3,86 Libricants 0.48 0.42 0.65 0.75 0,91 1.07 1.24 1.43 Tots/ All Products 5.50 4.70 6.57 7.59 8.96 10.37 11.87 13.46 a, z:sed on consumption of petroleum products and solvents used for maintenance and overhaul used by motor transport in agriculture. b. See Appendix A for the derivation of these during operation. of machines, nor does 1 ? - figures. MSTRICTED s not incluije fuels, lu ricants, it incluLe petroleum products Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Millions of Metric Tons 14 12 10 RESTRICTED ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS BY AGRICULTURE IN THE USSR 1940,. 1947-55* 8 6 4 2 Gasoline Ligroine Kerosene Diesel FT Lubricants ? Data Point / / P / / / / / / / fi / / 14 12 10 1940 1947 1948 1949 I I- 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Based on Fifth Five-Year Plan Excludes consumption of Motor Transport in Agriculture RESTRICTED SECURITY INFORMATION ApIVIMecifm Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 1ESTRIC1ED, concerning present and pant consumption. by combines, the range of error should not exceed plus or minus 10 percent, Care ehould be exercised ia 'using the estimates covering stationary motors and tractors in the tinher industry. It seenn probable, however, that the over-all estimates of con- sumption by agriculture should not be in error by more than plus or mines 10 percent for east and present periodo. Since estimates for the period 1952-55 are based largely on. Fifth Five Year Plan data, it is not poasible to estimate the degree of error which may-be present, The accompanying chart presents eraphicaliy the total consumption of petroleum products by the agriculturalnmchines Chown ia Table 1. From the chart it eay be noted that the consumption of all types of petroleum products by them agricultural machines decreased between 1940 and 1947, This decrease vas largely a result of the depletion of the Soviet tractor park ,during World War /I. Since 1947, consumption of all typee of petroleum products has been increasing anent-illy, although the rates of groeth in the denend for varioun products home differed. Between 1950 and 1955 the upward trend in the consumption of almost all petroleum products is expected to continue, b. litzle_t?Es.y_ma_92:12110x, An mill be seen from the chart, kerosene was the prineipal agricultural fuel in the prewar period and is expected to continue to be the most important feel, epantitatively. The relative importance of kerosene, however, is expected to decline. In 1940, kerosene accounted for 63 percent of all petroleum products coneumed by agriculture: By 1951 this percentage had fallen to about 58 percent, and by 1955 it is expected to decline to Just under 50 percent, Diesel fuel, on the other band, has become more important as an agricultural fuel in the postwar period because the proportion of the tractor park which is diesel-powered has been steadily increaninge in 1940, diesel feel accounted for only 3 percent of all petroleum products consumed by agriculture, by 1951 it accounted for 19 percent, and by 1955 it is expected to account for almost 29 percent. ? The demand for both fuels increases absolutely during the periods considered, but the denand for kerosene is expected to increase by only 89 percent between 1940 and 1955, whereas the demand for diesel fuel In agriculture is expected to increase by almost 2,200 percent during the same period, This increase reflects the increasing number of diesel tractors used in agriculture, Ligroine is becoming progressively less important as an agricultural fuel. In 1940, ligroine accounted for about 16 percent of the total - 5 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED agricultural reqairements. By 1951, 'Igraine accounted for only 5 percent of the total agricultural consumption. The decreased importance of ligroin tractors accounts for this decreased consumption. The consumption of gasoline end lubricants accounts for the remainder of the consumption of petroleum products by agricultural tractors, combines, ann stationary motors. Gasoline consumption, never quantitatively an important part of the total consumption of these units, nevertheless shows a significant inerease between 1940 and 1955. This is a result of increased revirements for gasoline as a starter fuel for tractors consuming heavier petroleum products and of the inereased consumption of gasoline by combines. The consumption of lubricants also shows a significant increase, particularly because diesel tractors, which account for an increasingly large part of the tractor park, consume a higher percentage of lubricants in relation to basic fuels. e, REIRE2E1LEszlon Table 2** presents a breakdown of total consumption of fuel by agricultural tractors, combines, and stationary motors in the USSR by economic regions for 19400 1950, and 1955. Because the breakdown wad made on the basis of 1951 Plan data and is not considered .-tb be accurate, only the total con- sumption of all petroleum products by these agricultural machines has been prorated to the various economic regions. These estimates must be regarded as having a ?range of possible error of plus or minus 10 percent for 1940 and a progressively larger range thereafter. on this breakdown it may be noted that Ecommic Regions Ins 1Vs VI, and VII account for the greatest coneamption of fuel by these agricultural machines. Thee four regions, taken together, account for over 61 percent of the total consumption of petroleum products by Soviet agriculture. * The term region in this report refers to the economic regions defined and nudoered SETIKNiall 12408, 9-51, USSR: Economic Regions. ** Table 2 follows on p.7. - 6 - RESMICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRIMED Table 2 Estimated Regional Consumption of Petroleum. Products by Agriculture in the USSR 1940, 1950, and 1955 Amount . 111111a112I1.19....201/ Economic Region 1950 1955 Percent of Total Consumption Northwest (Ia) ,100.0 10.03 o.c4 o.o8 o.6 Northern European USSR (Ib) 0.03 0.04 o.o6 0.6 Baltic MO 0.18 0.21 0.43 3,2 Belorussia (Ilb) 0,08 0,09 0.19 1,4 Ukraine (III) 1.16 1.38 2.83 21.0 Lower Don-North Caucasus (IV) 0,61 0.74 1.51 11.2 Transcaucasus (V) 0.07 0.09 0.18 1.3 Volga (VI) Central European USSR (Vn) Urals (VIII) 0.91 0.69 0.53 1.08 0.83 0.63 2.22 1.70 1.29 16.5 12,6 9.6 West Siberia (10 0.44 0.53 1.08 8.0 Kazakh SSR (Xa) 0.28 o.33 0.69 5.1 Central Asia (Xb) 0,27 0.32 0.66 4.9 East Siberia (XI) 0.16 0.19 0.39 2,9 Far East (XII) 0.06 0.07 0,15 1.1 Total 5.50 6.57 13.48 IP+ -g Footnote references in arabic numerals aro to sources listed in Appendix C. - 7 - RESTRICTRD Approved For Release 1999/09/02: CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999109/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED APPENDIX A METHODOLOGY 1, Agricultural Tractors, a, 121122.1211aLeS1-1951? Consumption of petroleum products by agricultural tractors is calculated by multiplyieg the average consumption of petroleum products per hectare* of tractor work by the numbers of hectares of tractor work per- formed, Ia order to do this, it is necessary to know the total number of hectares of tractor work performed in a year, broken down into hectares worked by kerosene, diesel, and ligroine tractors, together with the average feel expenditure per hectare by each of these types of tractor in the same year, Fortunately, Soviet sources have supplied all the factors necessary for making these calculations for tree-Ws in machine tractor stations (ITS's) during 1940, 1947, and 1951. The teak has been simplified by the fact that Soviet reports of tractor performance for all types of tractor work are Con- verted by Soviet statisticians into a standard accounting unit -- the hectare of soft plowing -- so that there is no neceseity to take into account the effect of different types of tractor work on fuel consumption. Table 3** details the celculation of the consumption of faels and lubricants:by agricultural tractors located in the MTS's in 1940, 1947, and 1951. Consumption of lubricants and consumption of gamoline used for starting tractors using heavy fuels are calculated from Soviet norm for expenditure of these products as a percentage of total fuel expenditure. All data supplied by Soviet sources deal only with the tractors located in the MTS's, and no similar data were found for tractors on State farms. In order to eetimate the fuel consumption of all agricultural tractors in the USSR, it waz necessary to WC estimates of the percentage of ;total agricultural horsepower owned by the NT S's. This task was made easier by the fact that Soviet sources usually discuse tractors in terms of an accounting unit -- the 15-horsepower tractor -- and because Soviet sources provide data on the productivity of this accounting unit. %le validity of this metbed also depends on the unverified assumption that on the land worked by the State farms there in the same percentage breakdown between hectates worked by - kerosene, ligroine, and diesel tractors. * One hiCtarj equals 2.471 acres. 401 Table 3 follows on p. 9. RESTRICTER Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :.CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 -a 3 CD RESZRICTED Table 3 culation of the Consumption of Petroleum Products by Agricultural Tractors in Machine Tractor Stations 1940, 1947, and 1951 alti JoA panoiddy 73 m Types of m? Tractor 1.40 0, MOSene CD 0, arOrZ 2:/* MY Model MZEATI c/ Model al for Kerosene oTractors -0 Ligtoine CD Diesel CD up %Anal for 1940 100 E5 CD Experienced Total Fuel Laricant lubricant Gasoline Gasoline m VollapP of Work 2 Volume of Work 3./ Ebel Consumption II/ Consumption Norms 2/ Consumption . Norma ?/ Consumption -A (Percent of (Million Hectares (Kilograms (Million Metric (Percent of (Million Wtric (Percent of Metrickt Tata Tractor Work) of Soft Plowing) per Hectare ) Tons' Fuel) Tons) Fuel) Tons) Z13 CD h, 54 12 20 6 * footnotes for Table 3 follow on p.11. CD CD N3 CD CD CD 121.5 27.0 18.0 16.5 17.8 15.3 15.9 15.9 10.4 2.16 0.41 0.29 2.86 0.72 0.14 3.72 10.0 10.0 11.5 10.0 17.0 0.22 0.04 0.03 2422 0.07 0.02 0.38 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.5 3,0 0.03 0,01 Negligible 0.04 0 ) 2) 1) -4 CO 4) CD CD G3 CD CD CD 4=6 45.0 13.5 225.0 0.01 Negligible 0.05 - 9 - RESTRICMD HESTItICTED Table 3 C lculation of the Consumption of Petroleum Products by Agricultaral Tractors in Machine Tractor Stations 1940, 1947, and 1951 (Continued) 0 CD 0 CD U3 tID Types of Tractor Volume of Work Ei (Percent of Total Tractor Work) Volume of Work (Million Hectares of Soft Plowing a ? 19217 54 17 97.5 14.5 30.7 ha Kerosene C) )8DTZ Mbdel *Model 3TZNATI Model .4 TTotal for Kerosene c3 Tractors c) likroine 79 13 142.7 23..5 12. Zesei a 2 3.6 Total for 1947 a 51 rosene 160.6 SK1TTZ Model 26.7 102.1 U Model 5.8 22.2 STNATI Model 30.3 115.9 Total for Kerosene Tractors 62.8 240.2 1/ CD 0. Experienced Total Fuel Lubricant Laricant Gasoline Gasoline Fuel Consumption ig Consumption Norms 2/ Consumption Norms/ Consumption pp (Kilograms (Million Metric (Percent of (Million Mstric (Percent of (Million Metric 2. per Hectari,.. Tons) Fuel) Tons) Fuel Tons) 19.5 17.3 17.9 18.2 12.3 16.4 14.0 15.2 1.90 0.25 0.55 2.70 10.0 10.0 11.5 10.0 17.0 10.0 10.0 U.S 0.19 0.03 0.06 0.28 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.5 3.0 1.5 1.5 3.0 0.03 Negligible 0.02 0,05 0.01 Negligible 0.06 CoCD UD 4, c) UD 25 Ks ? . 0 -0 (1) (4) C.) fJ 0.43 0.04 3.17 0.04 0.01 0.33 1.67 0.31 1.76 3.74 0.17 0.03 0.20 0.40 .03 Negligible 0.5 .08 Id peAwddv RESTRICTED Table 3 Ca)cUlatiOfl of the Consumption of Petr olein Products by Agricultural Tractors in Machine Tractor Stations .1940, 1947, and 1951 (Continued) X m ET m 0 Types of m Tractor Volume of Work 2/ (Percent of Total Tractor Work) Volume of Work .3./ (Million Hectares 2illatultaLml_ Experienced Fuel Consumption Lt/ (Kilograms per HectareL Total Fuel Consumption (Million Metric Tons) Lubricant Norms 2/ (Percent of Fuel) Lubricant Consumption (Million Metric Tons) Gasoline Norms y (Percent of Fuel) CD Gasoline CD Consumption w (Million MetriT. ......A. CAD 1 1 5,7 99.6 21.8 119.0 352,5 15.2 9.98 0.33 1.19 5.26 10.0 17.0 0.03 0.20 0.63 1.5 3.0 ? CD CD K.1 Negligible 0 0.04 .12 mintinuel) LiaMine D120e1 I> ilotal for 1951 OFTEZIreiaTTEEREav.Traktor bP Universal, 0.40 Stalingrad Traktor Zavod, Nauchno dowThere is a discrepancy in the total e.g There is a discrepancy in the total CD CD 4=k a a a K.1 a a a Zavod, Autotraktornyy Institut (Scientific Automobile and. Tractor Institute), because of a discrepancy in the source material. because it was taken from a separate source. - - RESTRICTED , Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED 3oviet sources 'indicate that in 1940, 81,4 percent of the horsepower of the Soviet agricultural tractor park was located in the MTS's. I/ It has been assumal that this percentage lit8 the same in 1947. It has been estimated that by 19512 85 percent of the total acricultural tractor park:was located in the MS's. Table 4 presents estimates of the consumption of petroleum products by all agricultural tractors in the USSR derived by applying these percentage estimates to the data incluaed In Table 3. Table 4 Estimated Consumption of Petroleum Products by all Agricultural Tractors in the USSR 1940, 1947, and 1951 Million Metric Tons Petroleum Products 1940 4947 1951 Kerosene 3.51 3.32 4.4o Ligroine 0.86 0.53 0.39 Diesel 0.17 0.05 1.4o LUbricants 0.47 0.41 0.74 'Gasoline 0.06 0.07 0.14 Total 2.za. -4.38 7.07 Since the data in Table 3 were supplied completely from Soviet sourcen, the estimates of fuel consumption by tractors in the MTS 's are as reliable as the Soviet data themselves. In preparing Table 4 it is possible that the estirnte of the percentage of total agricultural tractor horsepower located in the MT S's is not accurate, but the error introduced by the use of this percentage should not exceed plus or rinse 5 percent. The estimates of consumption of,lUbricants and gasoline maybe sometihat law, since they are derived from Soviet norms, uhich may be optimistic. The effect of this error on the total consumption of petroleum products ahould be negligible, since lubricanta and gasoline constitute only a small part of total petroleum consumption. 13, 27221.m112.2117,2., The,hectere.PPW0Pah Used above ia aloo used in estimatiag the consumption of petroleum products by agricultural tractors during the base year used, 1950, and the period 1952-55. Data supplied by the Fifth Five Year Plan permit this approach. The hectares workel by the different -12 - RESIUICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICIED types of tractor were, however, computed by a. different method. The size and breakdown of the park of agricultural tractors has been attempted and used in conjunction with the average output per tractor. In 1950 the USSR had an estimated tractor park of 800,000 15-horse- power unite (see Table 5),* and the average yearly ,output per tractor was 469 hectares Of soft plowing. According to the Fifth Five Year Plan the agricultural tractor park is to grow 50 percent, and the yearly output per 15-horsepower tractor unit is to increase 50 percent between 1950 and 1955. The increase in the tractor park seems to be quite feasible, since an in- crease in the park of 50 percent over 5 years represents a slower rate of net growth than was the case during the last years of the Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-50), The planned increase in the productivity of the 15-horse- power tractor unit also seems within the realm of possibility, since overage prewar tractors can be expected to drop out of the park through depreciation, and new, more efficient ti-actors will take their place In any event, no alternative estimates of the productivity of the Soviet tractor perk during the period 1950-55 are presently available, and, therefore, Fifth Five Year Plan data were used. in this report. On this baeis, there is presented in Table 5 the estimated size of the agricultural tractor park in 15-hor3epower units, as well as the pro- ductivity per 15-horsepower tractor unit, for the period 1950-55. In addition to the 1950 and 1955 data, derived as indicated above, 1951 data are also derived from Soviet sources. During 1952-540 for which no direct evidence is available, the increases in nutters of 15-horsepower tractor units and productivity per unit necessary to reach the 1955 planned levels have been equally prorated to each of these years. The breakdown of the tractor park into different types of tractors makes use of the statement from a Soviet source that, in 1950, 25 percent of the agricultural tractor park horsepower was diesel (1/4 x 800,000 . 2000000) 21/ and that, in 1951, approximately one-third of the horsepower was diesel (1/3 x 930,000 = 310,000). 22/ This would mean, apparently, that the diesel tractor park increased from 200,000 to 3100.000,or by 110,000, 15-horsepower units. From Table 5 it will be seen that the entire tractor park Showed a net Increase of 130,000 15-horsepower units in 1951. This means that about 85 percent of the net additions of 15-hor8epover tractor units to the park in 1951 were diesel. This percentage has been used in determining the net number of diesel units which were added to the park between 1951 and 1955. The re- mining tractor units added In each year are considered to be kerosene-feeled. In the case of ligroine tractors it is estimated that there were approximately 53,000 15-horsepower units in the park in 1951, since Table 3 indicates that ligroine tractors performed a total of 21.8 million hectares of work, and the average 15-horsepower unit perforned 484 hectares of work in the same period., These 53,000 ligroine 154iorsepower units are arbitrarily held constant through the period. Table 5 follows on p,14. - 13 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RE3'311ICTED Table 5 Estimated Size of the Agricultural Tractor Park of the USSR am Estimated Average Productivity 3Per 15-Horsepower Tractor Unit 1950-55 Year Estimated Tractor Park 115-Horsepower Unita) 4.1...1?01,....?????????VOIN.4.16?19.. . Estimated Productivity per 15-Horsepower Trocter Unit 1E14.2Fes of Softneagil 1950 Wookoo 2/ 469 12/ 1951 9300000 2/ 484 12/ 1952 997l000 539 1953 1,065,000 594 1954 1,132,000 649 1955 1,200,003 7o4 , State Department estimate. Soviet source, 124/ Table 6 presents the estimated composition of the Soviet tractor park derived from these assumptions. In order to Obtain the nuMbers of Table 6 Estimated Composition of the Agricultural Tactor Park of the USSR 1950-55 Thousand 12.316112122t211.212EIEEUnits Dne.L.3 2f_lractor 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Diesel 200 310 368 426 484 542 Kerosene 547 567 576 586 595 605 Ligroine 53 53 53 53 53 53 Total Boo 222, 221 2,22..26 1,132 -.-- 1 200 -A- - 14 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 REBTRICMD hectares worked well year by each tyre of tractor, the nuMber of 15-1iorse- power tractors of each type is multiplied by the average output per tractor. The reeults are presented in Table .7. The year 1951 haa been omitted from Table 7, since data for thie year have already been preeented in Table 3, Table 7 Estimated Hectares Worked by the Agricultural Tractor Park of the USSR, by Tye a of Tractee. 1950 and 1952-55 Million Hectares of Soft Plowing IkEfeST.laqa 1.222 1952 1_2,5.1 19 1955 Diesel 94 398 253 314 382 Kerosene Ligroire 257 25 310 29. 348 31 386 34 426 37. Total ..4.71 537 632 734 ?11.2 Tinally, to arrive .at fuel consumption for t1e. years between 1950 and 1955) the nutber of hectares worked by each type of tractor is multiplied by the average fuel expenditure per hectare of that particlOar type of tractor, Fuel consumption factors for 1951 are used for all years between 1950 and 1955. Though fuel consumption per hectare decreased between 1947 and 1951, there is no indication that further decreases will necessarily occur; since the 1951 fuel Coneumetion per hectare is already below the 1950 level. Table .80 Summarizes the consumption of petroleum products by agricultural tractors in the USSR calculated from the foregoing discussion, Consumption of lubricants and starting gasoline was again calculated on the basis of Soviet norms, with the small dixterence thRt no attempt has been made to break down the censumption of these products as between the different types of kerosene tractors, aed an average for all types of kerosene tractors was used instead, The range of error present in these estimates would appear to be somewhat greater than that present in the estimates for 1940, 1947, and 1951, The estimates for 1950 should not be in error by more than plus or minus 10 percent. The estimates for 1952-55 are subject to progressively greater possible error, since they are based on the Fifth Five Year Plan. All the estimates of consumption of lubricants and starting gasoline may be somewhat law. 4-31-e7rTailows on p. 16, -15- RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02-rCIA:RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED Table 8 Estimated Consumption of Fetroleuxa Products by all Agricultural Tractors in the USSR 1950 and 1952-55 111en Metric Tons Product 1250 122. 1225. MIL 1222_ Kerosene 4.ol 4.84 5.43 6,o2 6.65 Ligroine O.38 O.44 0.47 0.52 O.56 Diesel 1,00 1,98 2.52 3,13 3.81 inbricents o.64 0,90 1.06 1.23 1,42 Gasoline 0,13 0.18 0.21 O.24 0.27 Total 6.16 99 11.14 Ral 2, Codbines, Consumption of petroleum.products by Agricultural combines is estimated by a method similar to that used for agricultural. tractors, Briefly, cone. gumption by conbines is calculnted by multiplying the number of hectares harvested by coMbines by the unit fuel consumption per hectare.. -The prdblem is simplified by the fact that all coMbines are believed to operate on gasoline. It 18 eomplicated, however, by the fact that there are tiro basic types of combine in operation in the USSR: tractor-drawn and self-propelled coMbines, Both types are motor-driven, but the self-propelled cotbines eon- eume more fUel-per hectare. It is therefore necessary to break dean the nuMber of hectares harvested by combines into the amounts harvested by each of the two types of combine: n Since thic breakdown is not directly available from Soviet eources? it has been made on the basis of the estimated nuers and productivities of the different types of coMbine: in the Soviet park, The nuMber.of tote' hectares of grain crops harvested by coMbines during 1950 and 1951 has been estimated on the basis of Soviet information, Since the.FiftbeFive Year P1 nn indicates no increase in the nueber of hectares of grain crops during 1950-55, it has been assumed that for the. period 1952,55 it will remain constant at the 1951 level, Soviet sources aupply the per- centage of total hectares of grain harvested by coMbinec in 1950 and 1951, and the planned percentage increase for 1952 and 1955, This increase has been prorated ovally to each of the years from 1953 through 1955. Table 9* shows the estimatee which have been made of hectares harvested by codbines during 1950-55. Table 9 roffous on p, 17, RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED Table 9 Estimated Hectares of Grain Crop?. Harvested by Combines in the USSR 1950-55 1????????1201MAIIIt.MINITIIN. 192o 1251 1952 1953 1954 _______ Total Hectares of Grain Crops (Millions) w 101.9 106.0 106.0 106.0 106?0 106.0 Percent Harvested by Combines 50.0 6o.o 1- 72x 16 78.o 84A) 9ox 2/ Hectares Harvested by Codbinee (Millions) .121/ 51.5 63.6 76.3 82.6 89.0 95.4 a, Fifth Five Year Plan. Table 10* shows the estimates of the composition of the coMbine park used in calculating fuel consumption by coMbines. Table 10 is prepared on the basis of the following facts and assumptions. a. Prewar. (1) Prewar production of combines is assumed to have been equally divided-between the Kommunar and S-1** models. 17/ (2) 49,000 prewar combines were destroyed by the Germans. 1g/ (3) Codbinee are assumed to have a service life of 12 years. b, Postwar. (1) The nuMber of postwar combines delivered to agriculture, with a breakdown between self-propelled and tractor-drawn models, is based on CIA eetimates of production. (2) Tractor-drawn coMbines produced prior to 1947 are assumed to be Kommunar modelc. 12/ * Table 10 follows on p..3.60 ** S refers to Stalinets. - 17 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED Table 10 Estimated Composition of the Combine Park of the USSR 1950-55 Thousand Combines 122L. 1955 pes1950 12.21_ 1952 1953 Prewar Combines Tractor-Drawn Models S-1 18.7 10.3 7.0 2.3 Kommunar 18.7 10.4 7.1 2.4 Subtotal 37.4 20,7 14,1 /24/ Postwar CoMbines Tractor-Drawn Mbdels Kommunar 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 s-6 42.3 65.9 89.9 107.9 Self-Propelled licdels S-4 27.5 53.5 82.5 103.5 Subtotal 70.1 119.7 172.7 211.1 Tbtal lma 140.4 186.8 216.4 0 0 Q.3 0,3 119.9 131.9 117.5 131.0 ma 263.2 237.7 263.2 (3) A utilization factor of 50 percent has been applied to coMbines delivered to agriculture during the year of delivery. (4) Yearly deliveries of combines to tgriculture during 1953-55 are assumed to be made at a rate 50 percent lower that that calculated for 1950-52, This /assumption has been yeen, since Table 9 inaicates that the weber of hectares harvested by coMbines will increase only 6 percent per year during 1953-550 whereas it increases at aa average of U. percent per year between 1950 and 1952* Ia determining the number of hectares harvested, by the various types of combine, use has been made of Soviet data concerning the productivity of different models of combines .- Table 10 dhows the estimated composition of the combine park, and Table 11* shows tbn estimated hectares harvested by various models, The rated productivity of the 6-4 and the &manner models is 1.8 hectares per hour, 22/ and that of the S-6 model is 2.2 hectares per hour, Table 11 follows on p. 19. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED Table 11 Estimated Hectares of Gain Crops Harvested by Models of Combines in the USSR 1950-55 Million Hectare e ??????21???.....*???????*????? Models of CoMbince 12.52 195' 1952 1953 1954 19 s-4 11.7 21.7 30.3 35.5 3.6 42,8 Nonuunar 8.1 4,3 2.7 0.9 0 0 s-6 ana s-1 31.7 37.6 43.3 46.2 49.4? 52,6 Total 511 76.3 82.6 8212 .62.6 or 1.22 times that of the other combines. ?li The productivity of the S-1 model is unknown, but it is assumed to be the an as that of the S-.6? since both coMbines are powered by the same motor. In preparing Table 11, uee is made of these productivity weightings. In addition, the assumption hap been made that each tyee of codbine is in operation for an eqeal period of time during the year, In calculating the fuel and lubricant coneumption of combines, Soviet fuel consumption rates of 4,5 kilogram per hectare for tractor-drawn com- bines 23/ and 10 kilogram per hectare for self-propelled coMbines .21/ have been used. The consumption of lubricants has been calculated on the basis of the Soviet norm for the consumption of lubricants per hectare. Table 12* details these calculations. 1940 and 1947 estimates are included on a re- latively arbitrary basis. Three major possible sources of error enter into this .calculation. First, If the nuMber of prewar codbines in the park is smaller than that estiented? a greater proportion of the harvestirgalneda will be done by the self-propelled codbineslethich have a higher fuel consumption rate. The reverse i eve3ly true. Second, it is possible that some tractor4irawn coMbine modeis do not have motors, since it is known that experimento have been rade with this type of egaiptent. 2L/ If large nutbers of these Models are in use, the estimated petroleum consumption. will be on the high side. Finally, the pro- ductivity and consumption factors which have been used may be somewhat in error, since they are based on Soviet norms and rated capacities, which may be optimistic. For these reasons, it is felt that the range of error present in these estimates may be as much as pIus or elms 20 percent. 3. 1912Limsy Motors in /culture and Teactors in the Timber Iadsta, information on these consumine units is extremely scanty in the Soviet sources which were examined, It was felt that further research on this subject would not yield information which would substentially reviae * Table 12 f011ouo on p.ea, . Approved For Release 1999/09P79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED Table 12 Estimated Consumption of Petroleum Products by CoMbines in the USSR 1940-55 Million Metric Tons 1940 1947 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Gasoline Consumed S-4 Nbdels 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.36 0.40 0,43 Kommunar Models 0.,04 0.02 0.01 Negli- gible 0 0 S-6 and S-1 Models 3.14 0.17 0.20 0,21 0.22 0.2 Subtotal 0.35 0.26 0.30 0.41 0.51 0.57- 0.62 0.66 Lubricants Consumed 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Total 0.36 0.27 0.31 0.42 0.52 0.58 0.62 0.67 011.1.3?1011?9I/N? 01101?11....1.0 estimates of consumption which have been used previously. Earlier estimates of annual consumption by these units have totaled 0,1 million metric tons. This has been arbitrarily divided into 0.05 million metric tons of diesel and 0,05 million metric tons of gasoline. Lubricant consumption by these units is considered negligible. 4 Preliminar Estimates of the Consumption of Petroleum Produts_12.xl_otor ransiOrtin iculture. The present state of knowledge about the composition and utilization of the agricultural motor transport park in the USSR is such that no accurate estimate can be made of the consumption of petroleum products by motor trans- port, It is possible, however, to hazard a guess on the order of magnitude of this consumption. (See Table 13.)* The 1941 Plan dhows that the People's Commissariat of Agriculture was allocated 3.34 percent of the total ton-kilemeters of motor transport for the whole of the USSR; the People's Commissariat of State Farms, 5,61 percent; the People's Commissariat of the TiMber Industry, 3.74 percent; and the People's Commissariat for Agricultural Procurement, 11.95 percent. Thus the p3enned ton-kilometers of motor transport involved in Soviet agriculture in 1941 was the equivalent of 25.04 percent of the total planned ton-kilometers of notor transport In the USSR. * Table 13 follows on p. 21, RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED Table 13 Calculated Consumption of Petroleum Products by Motor Transport in Agriculture in the USSR 194_0, 1947, and 1950-55 Ton-Kilometers Performed by All Motor Ton-Kilometers Performed by Motor Transport Calculated Consumption' of Petroleum Products by Motor Tzansport in Agriculture Transport in Agriculture (Billion (Billion Gasoline Lubricants Year Ton-Kilometers) . Ton-Kilometers) (Thousand Metric Tons) (Thousand Metric Tons) 1940 8.9 2.2 0.6 Negligible 1947 10.8 2.7 0.7 Negligible 1950 20,1 ?5A) 1.4 0.1 1951 23.7 5-9 1.6 0.1 1952 28.0 7.0 1.9 G.1 1953 31.1 7.8 2.2 0.1 1954 34.2 8.6 2,4 0.1 1955 37.2 9-3 ?6 0.1 -21 - RESTRICTED 1.-Z00000017000VE601.0-6LdCIN-V10 : Z0/60/6661. eseeleN JO j panaiddy Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED The total ton-kilometers run by the entire motor transport park of the USSR have been estimated in an earlier report for 1940, 1947, and 1950-52. ?.5./ In addition, the increase in motor transport planned for 1955 in the Fifth Five Year P/aa is known to be 80 to 85 percent of the 1955 level., It ia therefore possible to interpolate a complete ton-kilo- meter series for all years between 1950 and 1955. In addition a factor for expenditure for gasoline per ton-kilometer also has been dLrived -- 0.00027742 metric tons per ton-kilometer. .2.?./ If it is assumed that for all the years under consideration, agricultural motor transport accounted for 25.04 percent (the 1941 Plan figure) of tbe total ton-kilometers of motor transport -- it is possible to derive the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport in agriculture Shown in Table 13. In addition, it 'is possible to estimate that the consumption lubricants by motor trans- port in agriculture will be 4. percent of the gasoline consumed. gyi NO approximation of the eonsumption of diesel fuel by motor transport in agriculture is presented, since no information is available on which to base such an approxleetion. The approximations of the consumption of petroleum products Shown in Table 13 are subject to an extrenely wide range of error, RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED APPENDIX B GAPS IN INTEMTGENCE The purpose of this appendix is to indicate wherein the material upon which this report is baised is inadequate and wherein coverage of the subject is incomplete. This is done both to enable better evaluation of the estimates presented and to point out where further research may prove of value, 1. Affasalltyral Tractors. a. 1940 1947eleel,19..2.1.. Though data on the consumption of petroleum products by the tractor park of the MTS's for these years have been supplied completely by Soviet sources and no further research in this area is justified, the lack of information on consumption by agricultural tractors other than those of the MTS's creates an important source of error in estimates of total con- sumption by tractors in agriculture. These data have not been found for postwar years. They would be of great value if given at some future date in Soviet pablieations, or if estimated on the basis of intense research. b. 1950. The estimates for the year 1950 could be made more accurate either if an exact breakdown of 1950 nondaesel horsepower between ligroine and kerosene horsepower could be made, or if Soviet publication subseepently provide a breakdown of hectares worked by the different fuel-type tractors that obviates the necessity of estimating the composition of the tractor park. It should be stressed that all efforts should be made to make this eatimate ex precise as possible since 1950 will undoubtedly be used as a base year in Soviet statistics. c, 1952-55. Estimates for 1952-55 are based on data from the Firth Five Year Plan. The Plan figures on increases in tractor horsepower and in output per tractor unit shculd be revised as further material becomes available. Important factors not supplied by the Plan are the comparative nuMbers of diesel tractors end kerosene tractors to be added to the park during the 5-year period, and information as to whether or not the present rates of fuel consumption per hectare are to decrease. The latter is particularly important, as is shown by the fact that using 1947 fuel consumption factors for 1951 results in an error of approximately 2 million metric tons, - 23 RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED 2. CoMbines. The estimates of consumption of petroleum products by combines are not as reliable as estimates of consumption by tractors. It ie firmly believed; however, that the amount of tine already devoted to research on this subject is the maximum that can be spent profitably, It is doubtful that further research would uncover more accurate information. The present estimates are the result of considerable research and of a complex meth- odology, The results obtained are believed to represent the extreme limits to which estimates of consumption by a single category of petroleum-consuming equipment can be carried. Stat imam Motors in Aviculture and Tractors in the TiMber Indutia. NO over-all statistics have been found on consumption of petroleum . products by shationary motors in agriculture and tractors in the tiMber in- dustry. To estimate the inventory of equipment and find consumption factors in both these fields would require elaborate research which would not eecessarily produce reliable results. In view of this fact, and since the amount of petroleum Involved is thought to be extremely small, it was cone sidered more practical to make aa arbitrary estimate. 4, ----?EM?taeTEEE_W.E 1.11_4Ekre. Essential prereqeisite to accurate estimates of the petroleum products consumed by motor transport in Soviet agriculture are accurate data on the inventory of the truck park in agriculture and on its utilization. Alternatively, the ton-kilometers performed by trucks in agriculture would be necessary, These data are not aeallable; nor ie it anticipated that it will be possible to obtain acceptable estimates of these items except by the most painstaking and 'lengthy research, This, in Short, is a gap in present intelligence which will not keadily'befilled It is fortunate, therefore, that the need for an estimate of the con- sumption of petroleum products by motor transport in Soviet agriculture is one which is quite specialized and not generally required for intelligence purposes, Aa has been implied in this report, estimates of the consumption of petroleum products by 2131 motor transport in the USSR are presently available, Presently available intelligence, however, does not permit accurate itemizing of these estimates for the sectors of motor transport attached to egriculture or to other economic or political sUbgeoups of the Soviet economy, 5, Possible.nxther RefinementE. The breakdown of agricultural consumption by regions presented in Table 2 is beaed on distribution of the MTS's by regicais according to the 1941 Plan. Obviously, more recent information should be used, but it is not - 24 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED readily obtainable, and the concentrated research necessary to improve these estimates would require more time than is available, No attempt was made to provide a quarterly breakdown of annual petroleum consumption, by agriculture. This breakdown would be of value in indicating when agricultural demands for petroleum products would compete with possible wartime military requirements, 'In order to obtain this break- down, it would be necessary to find indexes of the distribution of tractor work and combine work during the year. - 25 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED APPENDIX C SOURCES AND EVALUATION OF SOURCES 1. Evaluation of Sources. This report was prepared largely from published Soviet source materials. Fifth Five Year Plan figures were used in estimating the growth in size -and productivity of the agricultural tractor and combine parks, since no other figures are as yet available. Information on the composition, utilization, and fuel consumption of the Soviet agricultural tractor park was based largely on data from Soviet technical and agricultural journals. Information from these publications is considered to be reliable, since it was prepared for Internal use by Soviet manngement and planners. Where published Soviet source materials failed to provide the necessary data, recourse was had to intelligence estimatea based on analysis of Soviet source material. Among the best of these were reports from the Department of State, particularly Intellkence Report 5805. The range of error believed to be present in each component estimate in this report is discussed in some detail in the sections of the report in which the estimates are developed. 2, Sources, entry and designated "Eva1,0" Information Evaluations, following the classification have the following significance: Source of Information A - Cempletely reliable 1 - Confirmed by other sources B Utually reliable 2 - Probably true C Fairly reliable 3 Possibly true D Not usnelly reliable 4 - Doubtful E Not reliable 5 Probably false F - Cannot be judged 6 - Cannot be judged Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited docilmitsnt; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation of the cited document, - 26 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 RESTRICTED 1, CIA, N/5 783.3,R92? The 1941 State Plan for the Development of the National Economy of the USSR. U, 2, Data for 1940 and 1947 taken from Mashinno-Traktssma_aptsio, No, 9, Sep 1948, U, Eval. BR 2, Data for 1951 taken from Sotsialisticheskoye Selfskoye Khozyaystvo (Socialist Agriculture), Aug 1952, p, 10, U, Eval, RR 2, 3, Tetals taken from Department of State, OIRffl AEI21.111ertoma___sL__?02., Ma or Develoc?-nts in Soviet iculture in 19 1 20 May 1952, p. 20, R. Data for l' 0 and 1 7 taken from Mashinno-Traktoraaya Stant2105 No. 9, Sep 1948, 11%,Itil_ RP 2 Data for 1951 taken from Sotsialisticheskoye Scl'skoye Khozyaystvo? cit, Eyal. RR 2 5, B.S, Svirshchevskiy, Eksploatatsim,mashinno-traktornogo parka (Utilization of the Machine-Tractor Park)", 1950, p. 229. U. Eval. RR 2, 6, Ibid, 7. hinno-Ti'ktornaju Stantsi a, No. 11, Nov 1947, p, 2, U. Eval. RR 2, Piovozjtvc Planned Economy), Mar 1947, p, 49. U. Eval, RR 2, 8, Department of State, OIR,Intellizence Report 8O5, cit, 9. Ibid. 10, linsq? 11 Mar 1952. U. 11, A. Kuropatkin, Iroprosy ekonomiki sel'skokhoz stvenno a trudav SSSR (Problems of Economics of Agricultural Labor in the USSR 1 1952, p. 165, U. Eva, RR 2. 12, Department of State, Intelligence Report Draft Power in LovAtt_AgisL tul_ure, 17 Apr 1952, p, 3, R, 13, Department of State, OIR,Intelligence Report 5805.1 22, cit., p. 11, 14, AL, Khropatkin, sit. cit., p. 199. 15. Plaxiovoye Jan 1952, p. 8. U, Eva]. . RR 2. 16, Sotsialistichesko e Sel'sko Khoz stvo Jun 1952, p. 5. U, EvalL, RR 2, 17, Sel khozmaahina Agricultural Machinery Jul 1950, p, 2, U, Eval, RR 2 18, P. Kolomiitsev, Takhnicheskoye osnashcheni sersko o khoz stva (The Technical tquipment of Agriculture , 19k7, p, 9. U, Eval, BR 2, 19, 8el'khozmaelpE5 Jul 1950, p. 2. U. Eval. RR 2. 20, M,N. Portnoy, Sammbin (The Self-Propelled Combine), 1950, p. 4, U. Eval, BR 2, 21, Serkhozmashina, Jul 1950, p. 2. U. Eval. RR 2. 22. Serkhozmashinal Jul 1951, pp. 10 and 11. U, Eva]. . RR 2. 23, Portnoy, a. cit. 24, serkhourollina., Jul 1951, pp. 10 and 11. U. Eval. RR 2, 25, CIA/RR PR-170 Civil Cons= tion of Petroleum Products in the USSR, 19 Jun 1952. TS. Classi.fication of this excerpt, R, Eval, RR 1, 26, Ibid, 27. Blr, Losikovand I.P. Iukashevich? Neftanoye Tovardomsgo_aostoptekhigdat, 1950, Moscow - Leningrad. - 27 - RESTRICTED Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000400020002-1 Approved For Release 1999/09RHIFE1Ailkb#79-01093A000400020002-1 asselfrrer--- In addition to the above specific citations, a general screening was made of all the issues available in the Library of Congress of the following Soviet periodicals for the years l96-2 Mashinno:Triqqamolm (Machine Tractor Station) Sotsialistichesko e StILIti4.4?-Khoz stvo (Socialist Agriculture) Selckhozmashina Agricultural Machinery AutomobI1j TraktorlapoLDmalgsaluE. (Automobile and Trac or Industry Planovo e Khoz stvo (Planned Economy) _21E211912Elisi Problems in Economics) A CO4dLaaeiiailii-niniab7ar of Soviet books and relevant reference material were also consulted. -"'"Ittietr7trl.._ Approved For Release 1999/09/021MARDN9-01093A000400020002-1