POSTWAR TRENDS IN MANPOWER OF THE USSR AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES 1947-57

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A000300160003-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
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• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 16, 1999
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: May 27, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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SECURITY INFORMATION
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POSTWAR TRENDS IN MANPOWER OF THE USSR
AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES
1947-57
CIA/RR PR-32
27 May 1953
1'OTICE
The data. and conclusions contained in this report do
not necessarily represent the final position of ORR
and should be regarded as provisional only and sub-
ject to revision.. Additional data or comments which
may be available to the user, are solicited,.
WARNING
THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING
THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITH-
IN-THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAW, TITLE 18,
USC, SECS. 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELA-
TION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED
PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
viiice of nesearcn aria rteportis bOCU~s
N!04 f I, ARCHIVES REM F?IFS:- o.
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary .... .....
I: USSR and European Satellites .. ....
A. Total Population ......................... 2
B. Civilian Employment ...................... 2
1. Agricultural Labor .... , ..... 2
2. Nonagricultural Labor 4
3. Industry, Mining, and Construction ............ 4
C. Increases in Trained Manpower ............... 5
II. USSR ....... ..... , ............. ... ... .
.5
A. Total Population . .................... ... 5
B. Civilian Employment ...................... 6
C. Composition of the Labor Force ............... 8
D. Increases in Trained Manpower ............... 8
III. European Satellites ........................... 9
A. Total Population .... ................ 9
B. Civilian Employment ...... ................ .10
C. Increases in Trained Manpower .............. 11
. Tables and Appendixes
Table 1. Estimated Total Population, and Employment
of the USSR and the European Satellites,
19479 1952, 1957 ..................
Table 2. Estimated Population and Employment in the USSR,
19479 19529 1957 ...................... 7
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Page
Table 3. Estimated Population and Employment
in the European Satellites, 1947, 1952,
1957........... ..........
Appendix A. Estimated Population of the USSR
and the European Satellites, 1947,
1952, 1957 (Table 4) .............
Appendix B. Distribution of Workers and Employees
in the USSR, 1947, 1952, 1957 (Table 5)
13
15
Appendix C. Estimated Employment in the USSR
and the European Satellites, 1947, 1952,
1957 (Table 6) ....................... 17
Appendix D. Methodology .......................... 21
Charts
Following Page
Figure 1. European Bloc and US: Manpower Indexes,
1952 2
Figure 2. USSR and European Satellites: Rates of
Increase in Employment, 1947-57 ........ 6
Figure 3. USSR: Distribution of Workers
and Employees, 1947-57 .............. 6
Figure 4. USSR and Selected European Satellites: Non-
agricultural Employment and Employment
in Industry, Mining, and Construction, 1947
and 1957 ..... ............ ... 10
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CIA/RR PR-32 CONFIDENTIAL
SECURITY INFORMATION
POSTWAR TRENDS IN MANPOWER OF THE USSR
AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES
1947-57
Summary
The present trends of population in the USSR and the European Satel-
lites are expected to produce an increase of about 40 million during the
period 1947-57. This increase, together with internal shifts in the uti-
lization of labor during the period, will. permit an expansion of the non-
agricultural labor force by 22 million, or 47 percent, to a high of almost
70 million workers and employees. Employment in industry, mining,
and construction is expected to rise 66 percent. In addition, the labor
force will be better staffed as a result of the compulsory education pro-
gram and the training of skilled engineering, professional, and technical
workers, who are increasing at a more rapid rate than the total labor
force,
In the USSR the estimated increase in the number of workers and
employees from 1947 to 1957 amounts to 14 million, a rise of 43.5 per-
cent during the 10:-year period. The Soviet labor force in 1957 will be
composed primarily of individuals in the 15- to 60-year age group with
a proportion of skilled and technical personnel that should compare
favorably with that of the Western European labor force.
The development of the labor force of the European Satellites will
follow the same pattern as that of the USSR, reaching a total of 23.7
million in the nonagricultural sector of the economy by 1957.
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1. USSR and European Satellites.
A. Total Population.
Before World War II the rates of population increase in the
USSR and the European Satellites were more rapid than in Western
Europe. Although the rate of population growth in the USSR is not
rising so rapidly at present, it is still high (15 per 1,000 per year).
The rates of postwar population increases in the European Satel-
lites are about equal to or above prewar levels, except in East
Germany and Hungary. It is estimated that the population will con-
tinue to increase at these rates in the USSR and the European
Satellites, producing an aggregate population increase of about 40
million, or 14.3 percent, from 1947 to 1957. (See Table 1* and
Figure 1.**) The estimated population of the USSR and the European
Satellites for 1957 will be double the present population of the US.
(See also Table 4, Appendix A.***)
B. Civilian Employment.
1. Agricultural Labor.
A study of rural economies in Eastern Europe made for
the League of Nations**** indicated that in about 1930 the nations
which are now European Satellites had an excess population*****
dependent upon agriculture of about 15 million people, or about 4..5
million male agricultural workers. Agricultural workers are still
in excess throughout the Soviet Bloc. The policies of the Commu-
nists are directed at reducing this overpopulation in agriculture by
able 1 follows on p. 3.
* * Following p. 2.
*** P. 13, below.
**** Wilbert E. Moore, Economic Demography of Eastern and
Southern Europe, League of Nations, eneva, 45.
** ** Excess population was measured by calculating the number
needed for current production if the European average per capita
output could be attained. The difference between this requirement
and the actual population dependent on agriculture was counted as
excess..
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mechanization and collectivization of farms and transfers of indi-
viduals to industry. Between 1947 and 1957, an estimated reduc-
tion of 7 million agricultural workers, as shown in Table 1, is
likely to be achieved: 5 million in the USSR and 2 million in the
European Satellites. The creation of a balance between agriculture
and industry in the European Satellites, however, will have barely
begun by 1957. It is assumed that a considerable surplus of labor
will remain for transfer to industry as agricultural productivity
increases.
2. Nonagricultural Labor.
The planned* increase in the nonagricultural labor
force during the years 1947-57 is estimated at 22 million, or
47 percent. The increase will result from transfers of appre-
ciable numbers now employed in agriculture, utilization of the
natural increase in the working age population, and employment
of more women,in industrial labor in the European Satellites.
3. Industry, Mining, and Construction.
The Increases planned for employment in industry,
mining, and construction between 1947 and 1957 (66 percent)
are nearly 12 times as rapid as the increases in total nonagri-
cultural employment (47 percent). Nonagricultural employ-
ment in the USSR and the European Satellites in 1952 is esti-
mated to have been slightly greater than nonagricultural employ-
ment in the US, but employment in industry, mining, and con-
struction in these countries** is estimated at nearly 31 million
as against 19 million in the US.*** This difference demonstrates
"Planned" is used in this report as follows: figures
from 1947 to 1952 represent estimates based on past plans
and performance announced; from 1952 to 1957, figures from
announced plans are used unless evidence indicates notable
failure to achieve goals; if plans do not extend to 1957, mathe-
matical projections are used.
** Albania is not included in this total.
*'* The US figure includes only contract construction and is
therefore slightly too low to be strictly comparable.
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the lesser emphasis on trade and consumer services that is charac-
teristic of Communist economies,
C. Increases in Trained Manpower.
The well-integrated system of vocational training in prewar
USSR has been revived and expanded since the war. The European
Satellites are rapidly reorganizing their educational systems to con-
form to this Soviet pattern. The increase in the number of graduates
of vocational and technical schools is indicated in Table 1 and
Figure 2.* The estimated rate of increase in skilled workers was
almost twice as rapid as that of the total nonagricultural labor force
(89 percent as compared with 47 percent). The rate of increase in
engineering, professional, and technical personnel was three times
as rapid (142 percent).**
The development of all elements of the labor force was
more rapid in the first 5 years of the 1947-57 period than that
planned for the second 5-year period, since the rapid rate of re-
covery during the immediate postwar years could not be main-
tained once the prewar level had been attained. The slowdown
occurred during 1948 in most phases of the economy of the USSR
but occurred later in some of the Satellites.. The change is con-
sistent with the announced changes in the Soviet index of industrial
production.
II. USSR.
A. Total Population.
An announcement by L.P. Beriya on 7 November 1951 stated that
in 1950 the annual increase in the population of the USSR was "over
Following p. 6.
** For the purpose of this report, the output of on-the-job training,
apprentice training, and labor reserve schools has been considered
the increment to the skilled labor force. The graduates from full
3- and 4-year vocational high schools have been classed as tech-
nical workers, and the graduates of higher institutions as profes-
sional and engineering personnel.
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3 million." This estimate and other estimates indicate a total in-
crease of over 33 million for the period 1947-57, bringing the total
at the end of the period to almost 225 million (see Table 2).*
B. Civilian Employment.
If present trends continue at a slightly slackened rate, the
number of workers and employees in the USSR will have increased
by 14 million, or 43.5 percent, from 1947 to 1957. The total by
1957 will be 46.2 million, of whom about 43 million will be in the
nonagricultural sectors and over 3 million in State agriculture.
The estimated increase of 14 million workers and em-
ployees is computed on the basis of the following projected changes:
(1) a net increase of 5 million in total employment, (2) a gain of
5 million at the expense of collective farms, and (3) a redistribu-
tion of 4 million slave laborers from their present status to non-
agricultural employment. This estimate is based on projections
of present trends and information indicating that because of the
increasing productivity, collective farms will require fewer agri-
cultural laborers.
Employment in industry, mining, and construction is planned
to increase during the 10-year period by 6.6 million, or 45 percent,
slightly greater than the percentage increase in total workers and
employees. The total of 19.1 million workers in this sector by 1957
is about equal to present US employment. Soviet employment was
already heavily concentrated in these critical sectors by 1947. In
1952, 43 percent of nonagricultural workers in the USSR were in
industry, mining, and construction as compared with 38 percent in
the US (see Table 2).**
Table 2 0 lows on p. 7.
** The distribution of Soviet workers and employees is broken
down in detail in Table 5, Appendix B (p. 15, below), and in Figure '3
(following p. 6).
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SECURITY INFORMATION
USSR AND EUROPEAN SATELLITES
RATES OF INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT
80
INDUSTRY, MINING,
AND CONSTRUCTION
NOTE
Logarithmic scale used
to show rates of change.
21 1
1947 1948
ENGINEERING, PROFESSIONAL,
AND TECHNICAL
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C. Composition of.the Labor Force.
The estimated increase in the 15- to 60-year age group
for 1947-57 is 23.4 million, 12.4 million of whom will be males.
As a result, both the employed group and the nonworking group
(primarily students and housewives) will increase. The per-
centage of the labor force under 15 and over 59 is expected to
drop. The estimated net increase of 5 million employed indi-
viduals results from an increase of 11.5 million persons in the
15- to 60-year age group and a 6.5-million decrease in the
employment of other age groups.
Since the 11.7 million underage and overage workers in
1947 had a productivity considerably below average, the decrease
in the employment of these individuals and the increase in em-
ployment of the 15- to 60-year age group,i.s expected to improve
the quality of the Soviet labor force. Although some of the older
workers will remain employed, most of the under-15 age group
will, as a result of the compulsory education program, be in
school.
D. Increases in Trained Manpower.
The Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) provides for the intro-
duction of compulsory 10-year education in the cities. Since, be-
fore 1950, the drive for compulsory education through the seventh
grade had already enrolled 90 percent of the 11- to 14-year age
group, the percentage of those over 15 who can stay in school is
expected to rise. The system of compulsory education is expected
to raise the quality of the labor force. It has already sharply
reduced the number trained in the less efficient labor reserve
schools and increased the enrollments in the regular and technical
high schools. This shift, in turn, increases the enrollment in
higher educational institutions. It is estimated that enrollment of
youth over 15 in .the regular high schools, technical high schools,
and higher institutions will increase from 2.5 million in 1947 to
7.5 million in 1957. The annual rate of graduation at the end of the
period is estimated at about 500,000 from technical high schools
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and over 200,000 from higher institutions. This increment will in-
crease the corps of engineers and technicians by 156 percent during
the period 1947-57, bringing the number to 7.7 million.
The facilities for training skilled workers, including the
training for higher skills of those already employed, are also turn-
ing out a sufficient number to increase this group at a faster rate
than the increase in total workers and employees. At the end of the
period the proportion of technical and skilled employees to the total
employees in industry should compare favorably with that in Western
Europe.
III. European Satellites.
A. Total Population.
The total population increase in the European Satellites from
1947 to 1957, as indicated in Table 3, is estimated at 6.4 million,
bringing the total to 94.2 million by 1957. The rate of increase of only
Table 3
Estimated Population and Employment in the European Satellites
1947, 1952,
1957
Millions
Increase
194
1952
1957
1947-57
Total Population
87.8
90,8
94.2
6..4
Civilian Employment
38.4
41.9
44,8
6.4
Agricultural Employment
23.'0
22.0
21.1
-1.9
Nonagricultural Employment
15.4
19..9
23.7
8.3
Industry, Mining., and Construc.
t ion
8e6
13.2
16.1
7.5
Skilled
2.9
3.9
5.8
2.9
Engineering, Professional,
and Technical
1.4
1.9
3.0
1.6
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7.3 percent for the 10 years is less than half the rate of increase
in the USSR. The rates for the different Satellites are variable,
ranging from 0 in the Soviet Zone of Germany to 22 per thousand
in Albania..
B. Civilian Employment.
The European Satellites plan to increase civilian employ-
ment by 6.4 million, or over 16 percent, a rate of increase more
rapid than that in the USSR. The more rapid rate of increase in
employment than in population is an index of the increasing employ-
ment of women. The net increase of 6.4 million results from a
decrease of 1.9 million in agriculture and an increase of 8.3 mil-
lion in nonagricultural employment. A large excess of farm labor,
however, would still be available if average European agricultural
productivity could be reached in the Satellites.
Over 80 percent of the total increase in nonagricultural
employment is planned for allocation to industry, mining, and
construction -- those sectors of the economy considered most
vital by the Communists. The addition of 7.5 million employees
in these sectors of the economy will result in a total of 16.1 mil-
lion by 1957.
East Germany and Czechoslovakia, highly industrialized
nations before World War II, plan only modest increases in indus-
try, mining, and construction during the 10-year period. Substan-
tial increases amounting to 85 percent in. Poland and 135 percent
in Bulgaria are estimated. Very rapid increases of 280 and 310
percent, respectively, are projected for Hungary and Rumania,
not only because these countries had a relatively small prewar
industrial base but also because they were just beginning postwar
recovery in 1947. (See Table 6, Appendix C,* and Figure 4.**)
P. 17, below.
** Following p. 10.
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C. Increases in Trained Manpower.
The European Satellites are rapidly adopting the system of
vocational training which has been evolved in the USSR. Under
pressure for more highly trained personnel, they also are accel-
erating personnel training by shortening the time before graduation.
This shortening of the period of education will obviously result in
a considerable sacrifice of quality for numbers. Quality also suffers
from the purges of faculties and from enrollments that are designed
to fill the educational system with loyal Communists. The vocational
training system is expected to increase the supply of skilled labor by
100 percent, and engineering, professional, and technical personnel
by 123 percent.
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APPENDIX A
ESTIMATED POPULATION OF THE USSR AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES
1947, 19522 1957
Table 4
Thousands
Countries
1L47
1952
Increase
1947-57
USSR
191,100
207,300
224,500
33,400
Albania
1,160
1,265
1,415
255
Bulgaria
7,020
7,247
7,707
687
Czechoslovakia
12,164
12,802
13,387
1,223
East Germany
18,800
18,500
18,500
-300
Hungary
9,076
9,367
9,616
540
Poland
23,700
25,328
26,847
3,147
Rumania
15,848
16,287
16,710
862
Total
278,868
298,096
318,682
39,814
a. As . of 1 January.
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APPENDIX B
DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES IN THE USSR
19 , 1952, 1957
Table 5
Thousands
127 a/ .1 52
1 5 ~/
Industry
Electric Power
273
330
355
Petroleum
300
307
342
Coal
280
950
950
Ferrous Metallurgy
300
908
998
Nonferrous Metallurgy
235
385
435
Metalworking, Machine Construction
3,700
4,635
5,210
Timber
42Q
469
516
Chemical
132
398
436
Textile
500
1,.014
1,084
Fish
111.1
193
211
Food
725
1,224
1,344
Meat. and Dairy
210
259
284
Paper
85
110
110
Other Industry
2,599
3,218
3,500
Total Industry
9,900
iI,4oo
15,775
Construction
2,600
3,150
3,300
Rail Transport
1,750
2,050
2,225
Water Transport
215
235
243
Other Transport
2,1+25
2, 525
2,800
Education
2,550
3,40p
4,14QO
Public Health
1,300
1,550
1,870
Trade
2,970
3,160
3,580
Public Feeding
970
1,01.10
1,500
Credit
335
355
415
Dwelling, Communal Economy
1,140
1,220
1,445
As of I January.
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Table 5
(Continued)
Thousands
L a/
1952
195 2
State and Public Institutions
2,170
2,210
2,325
Art
235
255
315
Communications
570
61o
760
State Agriculture, Forestry
1,600
3,250
3,1+10
Other
1,470
1,420
1;812
2 2()O
4o, Soo
46,175
a. As of 1 Januaryy -
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APPENDIX C
ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN THE USSR AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES
1941, 1952, 1957
Table 6
Thousands
11917 /
1. 52
1 59 7 ~
USSR
Agricultural
52, 000
48.0000
4T,000
Nonagricultural
32, 200
11-0, 800
11.6,175
Industry, Mining, and. Construction
12,500
17,750
19,075
Unskilled
23,64O
27,550
28,365
Skilled
5.500
8
, 320
1.0; 1.10
Engineering, Professional, and Technical
3,060
,
4,930
'7,700
Albania
Agricultural
480
458
1+43
Nonagricultural
k6
1.11
171
Unskilled.
38
93
130
Skilled
14.
10
23
Engineering, Professional., and Technical
19
8
18
Bulga,r.?ia
Agricultural
2,700
2,550
2,500
Nonagricultural
719
917
1,030
Industry, Mining, and Construction
233
434
550
Unskilled
472
573
581
Skilled
160
21.0
260
Engineering, Professional, and Technical
87
131
189
Czechoslovakia
Agricultural
2,200
2,000
1.,900
Nonagricultural
3,200
3,434
44,100
Industry, Mining, and Construction
2, 096
P"638
3:248
a. As of. 1 January.
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Table 6
(Continued)
1947
1952
1957
Czechoslovakia
Continued)
Unskilled
1-,972
2,279
2,583
Skilled
boo
808
1,011
Engineering, Professional, and Technical
228
347
506
East Germaxiy and East Berlin
Agricultural
2., 200
2,124
1, 900
Nonagricultural
5,782
5,731
6,6oo
Industry, Mining, and Construction
3,000
4,025
4,415
Unskilled
4,492
4,133
4,422
Skilled
885
1,094
1,563
Engineering, Professional, and Technical
405
504
615
Hungary
Agricultural
2,100
1,850
1,700
Nonagricultural
1,400
2,250
2,750
Industry, Mining, and Construction
470
1,420
1,800
Unskilled
881
1,669
2,006
Skilled
349
372
474
Engineering, Professional, and Tecnnical.
170
209
270
Poland
Agricultural
7,400
7,.300
7,100
Nonagricultural
3,180
5,200
5,900
Industry, Mining, and Construction
2,075
3,050
3,840
Unskilled
2,180
3,669
3,220
Skilled
700
1,064
1,850
Engineering, Professional, and Technical
- -
300
467
930
As of 1
, T .
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Table 6
(Continued)
19L 7 ~
1952
1957
Agricultural
6,000
5,850
5,600
Nonagricultural
1,100
2,353
3,200
Industry, Mining, and Construction
534
1,600
2,200
Unskilled
680
1,691
2,145
Skilled
260
384
617
Engineering, Professional, and Technical
160
278
438
a. As of 1 January.
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APPENDIX D
METHODOLOGY
1. . Population.
The total population of the USSR and the European Satellites was
.obtained as the sum of projected sex groups and age groups.
a. USSR,
By using 1946 as the base year and using estimated age and
sex groups, the population of the USSR was projected in the following
manner, For the years 1949-50 a death rate near the middle of the
range of possibilities consonant with Beriya's announcement was
selected. This rate corresponded closely with the Hungarian rate of
1941; hence Hungarian survival rates were applied to the USSR in
those years. Slightly lower survival rates were applied for the years
1947-48. The birth rate for 1949-50 was also selected so that the
rate of natural increase corresponded to Beriya's figure. A slightly
higher rate was applied in 1947-48 and a slightly lower rate in sub-
sequent years.
b. European Satellites.
Population projections for Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
Poland, and Rumania were prepared by the US Bureau of the Census,
using the latest available enumeration as a base and applying esti-
mates of births and deaths from published statistical bulletins and
announcements. The population of East Germany was considered con-
stant, as births and deaths are about in balance and migration is un-
predictable. The population of Albania was projected from data in the
UN Demographic Yearbook, 1951, by applying announced changes in the
birth and death rates.
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2. Employment.
In general, employment estimates for the years 1947-57 were pre-
pared by estimating base-year employment for different countries
from various sources. These estimates were projected to 1952 by the
use of announcements of fulfillment of Plans and other official publi-
cations. Projections of changes up to 1957 were made from Plan an-
nouncements, as far as those extended, and by mathematical means.
3. Sources of Error.
Thus-the three sources of error in the figures are (a) possible
errors in the base-year figures varying in magnitude from item to
item; (b) possible exaggerations in announced Plan fulfillment; and
(c) possible over- or under -fulfillment of announced Plans. The
ranges of error for the items listed in Appendix B are detailed in
material prepared for use in ORR Project 1.10-51. It is believed
that the range of error in the population projection does not exceed
3 percent. Errors in the detailed industrial breakdown given for
the USSR vary from industry to industry but are not believed to ex-
ceed 10 percent.
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