WESTERN EUROPE DIVISION OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES DIVISION WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000400040014-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 24, 1998
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: July 5, 1950
• Content Type: PAPER

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STL",RN EUROPE DIVISION
OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DIVISION WEEKLY
VOL. VII -P NO. I
For week ending 3 .y 1950
5 July 1950
NOTICE-: WOR P~
This document is a working-paper, not an official
issuance, since it has not necessarily been coor-
dinated with and reviewed by other components of
ORE. It represents the formulative thinking of one
group of analysts in ORE and is designed to provide
the medium for transmitting their informal views to
other intelligence analysts of the US Government who
are working on similar or overlapping problems- It
Is intended for the use of the addressee alone, and
not for further dissemination.
J
COPY FOR;
'C'-'ASS. CHANGED
DOCUMENT NO
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WES` RIi I E O1' DI ':I IC:U
WEE LY S11 IMA-E
VOL. VII i s 1 For week < iidiri'
3 J\aly 1950
PTM" rL ISI3 NORM ,U ID !SST AFRICA
Curren e,, + r ts Indicate Chat the French Genera
sae air base at flhlma. (Niger), to be sustained in the rest by
rather than in Africa, >g.ria a it ; V M-le c
cief3rzse aouth O 'L ? the Sahara a o tb. ; 14tth pa-a-allci a This
~? fronts on 1.4 xce KMahar;;, and sidi is the N~ i" `eo fu11 y' hib ir~# J' e
land south of tjl ?ii- esertw The p ~ese_-~t proposed patters of
defense installs. Lions includes the establishment of an e:xtenn
u~x? o a resistance in :rent est. Africa
Staff Is consid. k..'3 ~`TShe L3tG."#. ra 'T In a '.o ier geneval.
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the existing military installations at Bamako (Sudan), and
in the east by Fort Lamy (Chad), with intervening
strategically located points of support at Zinder (Niger),
and. Gao (Sudan).
The Inter-Arms Command of all armed forces in
French 17 est and Central Africa (headed by Lt. General Astier
de Villatte at Dakar) is concerned with the possibility that
in the event of war the USSR might attempt to cut off the
western bulge of Africa in order to deny this strategically
important area to the US, jeopardize the export of uranium
from the Belgian Congro, and acquire Atlantic bases.
The chief obstacle confronting the French in the
implementation of their defense plans is the inadequacy of
funds and personnel because of prior commitments elsewberev
It is reported that French military specialists experienced
in African desert warfare estimate that if the USSR made a
landing on the coast of politically unstable Libya, it could
strike overland virtually unopposed to the Gulf of Guinea.
These experts consider that it is a dangerous error to
suppose that the desert areas of Libya and the Niger cannot
be crossed by a large and properly organized expeditionary
force
According to French authorities,, there has recently
been an intensification of Communist activities along the
14th parallel. '.Phis report is based upon the visits of mem-
bers of the French Communist Party to the area and upon the
presence in this hinterland of officers of the African
Democratic Rally (RDA) prior to serious disorders earlier this
year a The backwardness of the native culture and the sparsity
of population, however, make it extremely unlikely that an
effective Communist resistance to the plan of the French
General Staff could be set up in this area. On the other hand,
there can be no doubt that the Kremlin would have a substantial
interest in the 14th parallel if the present plans of the
French General Staff are roalized a These plans would amount
to an admission by the French of their inability to hold North
Africa
The Socialists are unlikely to call a general
strike in a even o ng Leo o d s return. because of
the strong possibility of a compromise utlon providing
for the King's eventual abdication in favor of his eldest
son,, Prince Baudouin, and also because of the depletion of
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S E C R E T
Socialist -strike fumds. It is fairly certain that the law
of 1945, which declares the King in3ligible to reigns wil1
be repealed within a couple of weeks. The Socialists
Drobabluy will, however, conduct a "passive resi.=.tance" ci;.r paign
designed, to enp?-asIzo the fact that Leopold is a one--pc:.rty
King n. In addition to pursuing a policy of obstructionism
and non-cooperation with the Government, the Socialists
probably will refuse to participate in gatherings honoring
the Kin; and may "go into mourning" when the King passes
in parade. Ti s campaign probably would be partially
effective in Brussels and Wallonia where a majority of the
Belgians voted against the King's return. It may even
develop into sporadic ones-day strikes in some 'w '1alloon
industrial areas where anti.-Leopoldism is most pronounced,
and where the discipline of the Socialist labor federation
is weak.
If the King returns, the Communists are likely to
encourage strikes not only of the Commminist labor unions,
but also of the non-Communist workers. In this appeal, they
are likely to have some success in the Antcrorp port area and
the Charleroi and Liege mining and metallurgical areas., In
addition, the Cownxni st s may attempt sabotage, if the blame
can be placed on the Socialists, although the Communist
Party is unlikely to disband itself in order to go underground
to conduct its campaign,
THE VATICAN
The Vatican will~poInt to the ession of Soviet--
directed NTor#fi 1ora as proof or the } peer sly ott So eT
9peace can ,a gn, in contrast to the VaticanVs sincere efforts
for world peace c. In joining with the Western nations in
condemnation of the invasion of South Korea, the Vatican
newspaper, Osservatore Romano,, has accused Moscow of encourag-
ing and the me enc 'ing tie attack, The Holy See can be expected
to use this situation to urge again that Catholics everywhere
resist the spread of Communism and vigorously support the action
taken by the US and the UN
Official recognition of the anti-Franco T3as ue
National ly ~s~ e sst ar. llemoc:~at es of . , at I-w e nterna ona Ghrfstiari Y7emoc a ~ c Congrs: ie~.d in Sorrento
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S E C III' E T
C 'R E
this spr n ., may preov1s~de the real eZT"A cation for F' 7.ryac u:
recent t::yip to Bilbac. Francois loi :~t sx c.v e it
discredi. the Cathciic Basque rexilera r; 3 i. of tt
without 3upr?ort inside Spain may well have been
by he aItion of the Congr-ssy whisk. nave int :rra x
President of the Bti fc`ue gov