WEEKLY CONTRIBUTIONS LATIN AMERICA BRANCH, ORE, CIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000200020012-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 8, 2002
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: June 21, 1949
• Content Type: PERRPT

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Meekly Contributions
21 June 1949
CURRENT DEVELOR7ENIS
NORTHERN DIVISION: The conversion of the Costa Rican Army into a police
force Yet)) not reduce the negligible military capabilities of that coun-
try (p. 2).
CENTRAL DIVISION: Ecuador's Plaza administration is threatened by the
trend toward unification of leftist elements (p. 2).
SOUTHERN DIVISION: Paraguay's President Eolas Lolpez is shifting toward
personal rule and Argentine orientation (p. 2).
SPECIAL SUBJECTS
Significance of Recent Caribbean Legion Activities 4
The Current Situation in Venezuela 5
DOCUMENT NO
N CHANGE IN CLASS. Li
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT nEVIEW DATE?
A UTH ?10..1-11.1?74.0-37
DATEfV bl" ITEVIEV?,'ER:
State Dept. review completed
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Weekly Contributions,
(CIA Working Paper)
21 June 1949
1. COSTA RICA: The conversioru11112_222.122.122/213_11q2_112lice
force -- the Guardia Civil -- will have little effect
on future CenERI-American power-balance rivalries. The sane num-
ber of men will remain under arms: 445 men and 35 officers who
were in the original army and 1,325 men formerly members of the
customs guard and the traffic police. The proposed training pro-
gram that provides for the sending of 20 policemen every six
weeks to the US Army Military Police School in the Panama Canal Zone
and the conversion of the US Army-supervised Military School at
Guadeloupe into a police training school ? still under US Army
supervision ? will not, it is believed, reduce the negligible
military capabilities of the country.
2. ECUADOR: Leftist 0 sition to Plaza AdninistraVm1222rently
cnievin treater n
e recen 1 ra arty assembly the radical ele-
ments overwhelmingly gained control of the party and elected Col.
Carlos hancheno and Dr. Julio Moreno Espinosa to positions of
leadership. Mancheno, whose role in the opposition up to the
time of the Liberal meeting was uncertain, is evidently taking
his followers into the leftists, camp. The leftist orientation
of Moreno is well known and his participation in the Lige del
Honor (leftist subversive movement in the arm) provides a con-
necting link between the military and political anti-Plaza elements.
Arty successful exploitation of the possibilities inher-
ent in this development would constitute a major threat to the
stability of the Plaza administration. Plaza's hold on the popu-
lar imagination does, however, for the time being, constitute a
"hedge n against trouble.
PARPLODAY: President Sh1ft1na_traclammIL1 E1110212t
MFT-Clar'Z'
NEWEor uarren reports the Embassy's convictions that
(l) the Moles L6pez government is beginning to orient its course
toward Argentina and (2) President Moles, who is gradually growing
stronger at the expense of the Democratic Colorados with 'whom he
shares government responsibilities, now desires to be President in
fact as well as in name. The Ambassador comments that if the above
proves true, it means that Paraguay is again headed for turmoil and
that US interests in democracy will not be well served1
concurs with Embassy Asunci6n to the extent of
agreeing j;;;;Illas will make every effort to consolidate the gov-
ernment under his control and at the same time strive toward closer
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25(1 Weekly Contributions,
(CIA Working Paper)
21 Jude 1949
relatiOns with Argentina. The fact that Argentina practically con-
trols Paraguayan export trade places the latter country to some
extent :Within the natural sphere of influence of the former, and
the mole on Moles' part to mend the rather bad Argentine-Paraguayan
relatitins of the last two years maybe considered only a recogni-
tion of the economic 'facts of life% There is in Paraguay, how-
ever a strong feeling within certain groups that their country
must: in order to maintain any reality of national independence,
to some extent balance Argentine against Braeilian Influence.
These groups can be expected to oppose any rush into the Argentine
camp. In addition, the Democratic Colorados may be expected to
resist any attempt by the President to reduce the party to a sub-
ordinate position. Purthermore, both the Democratic Colorados and
other groups will resist an effort on the President's part to as-
sume a diotatorial rale. Therefore, the degree of turmoil in Para
-
gum. will depend on the extent of Eolas' moves, rather than their
direction; the outcome of such turmoil would depend, as always in
Paraguoy? on the position taken by the armed forces.
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2)(1 Weekly Contributions,
(CIA Working Paper)
Article 11-49
21 June 1949
agal_fis_Elce of Recent Caribbean ;Won Activitie,s.
Recent revolutionary activity in the Caribbean area) involving the
shift of the Caribbean Legion ,s base of operations from Costa 'lice to
Guatemala, increases the possibility of violence somewhere in the Carib?
bean in the near future. Indications have been growing recently that
the Legion is formulating operational plans and has the erne with which
to mount a formidable attack.
These facts, in addition to a gradual shift in the balance of power
favorable to sech countries as costa Rica, Cuba, and Guatemala (the
countries actively supporting the Caribbean Legion)) augment uncertainty
in the region and encourage the revolutionaries to take action. Although
no clue to the direction of such an attack can be round in the present
grouping of forces in Guatemala, the most likely targets of the Caribbean
Legion are: (1) the Panamanian Government, against which the Legion
might act in collaboration with Arias partisans who seek to overthrow
the Diaz government; (2) the Somoza regime in Nicaragua; and (3) the
Trujillo government in the Dominican Republic. The Caribbean Legion is
likely, as cover for its reel attack, to engage in preliminary feints
and maneuvers intended to confuse observers. However) an outbreak of
fighting in the Caribbean area -- regardless of its immediate point of
focus -- would aggravate the complex governmental interrelationships and
could result in considerable bloodshed and a widespread breakdown of
hemispheric solidarity. (Published in CIA Weekly, 17 Jun 49; based on
CIA Intelligence Memorandum 1860 16 Jun 49.)
SEC
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Approved For Release 2002/09/04: CIA-RDP79-01090A000200020012-5
CENTRAL AMERICA? CARIBBEAN AREA
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