NEAR EAST/AFRICA DIVISION INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 1 FEBRUARY 1950

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000100060004-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 26, 1999
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: February 1, 1950
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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A; = b' A'?U M,ARY vot. V fo..4
k ,Q r Ne ek Ending
I ebttaty k950
'rAE LE OF CONTENTS
Af_t r 5 February, Wh t ? .............................. .
Nun Pasha may unseat Prisnu Minister Jawdat
K--,.r.t.-ils attitude hardens . ... .. .. , ............. , I
P iat t a va .hg L w&rc sho wdowa of tribal issue
Brief
Turkey', Syria, Saud! .Atahaa, ixaq ......................... :'
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NEAR/EA5'?f? AFR ICA 1 T; LLiGENCE SUMMARY
1W
'."f. F. :'r z5 k?ebr':! .ry, what Th .' press it .qi Governnent in y have '1
short life if former Prima Mir)ist?r .girt Id marshals his new C snsti'
tutionstl[ Union Party agai ist it. , .itho gh the Jawdat Governments has
it made a definitive stata%m en> of policy. It has already stirniAnted a
good deal of criticism. Many :~:ragis disapprove the apparent substi-
tution of a policy of ciciser c: r?atia n with Egypt (of which Deputy
Prime Minister Pacbacht''s czsr .?eit visit liir+ Cairo is indicative) for
th,t union-with- Syrta mover=pt -which Nair. spearheaded. While Prime
ML-Aister Jawdat satisfied a po ?uiar dee ina id by his abolition of u r?ti t
,raw., there is iittle enthusiasm for the rr w banking laws and the tighter
import controls which the roe er rnze; ~t has put Into effect or for the
trox refT.~r ri1S it is rumored to p. paring.
'r he sI bwdo y if ,Lid 't s t eiy Lo t sinew the rec~9nwen ,'p of
Parliament On 5 ret'bru ry. It time Jawdat is expected to annou c-
his prt raan for the country. Nurri has signed up in his party bath
the President and Vice Prreside'st; of P ?rl moat and reportedly ha-s,
50 put.Ies on his roils. Shouid he ,,ci.1 Ae the reins of ga>ver
rn * back imkc, his o yr hands, it: is trnpro6able that Jawdr~.f: could miter
suf1icieg support tc, stop him.
AFG1JAaif'TX'AN- PAKISTAN
Karachi's attitade hardens; L n upci * that it will counter
Afghanistan's per-Asteral , It tion ri rye t.?"ib%. 1 issue with such posi-
tive measures as the st: Cio~ f . of i*crij r troops at t wc, key lord y
posts and the i itiatioo of a pro : g a th Elamp tgit of its o-wi arno:
I e tribes, Pakistan Is -embarkf n a new course designed tz ftrc:s
a sl wdow! with the Atgha:rrs, The moves -whi h Karachi Is spew
make are thgtcali ones for demo astNr-atiivg that Pakistan WIA not
meekly submit to vilifti ation distap.,mb?rrnent; they may thui-,
serene bah to check the ardor ~;J the Afghans and to calm the tribes-
men, whohave tended L.3 regard the. Pakistani Governmentp+a~cs wveq:k
aid timorous. Moreover, t ba is-o p 7Ii y, diverting the k' {%na c'i
Pakistani emotions from the Ir dWuis L 7 Lthe A?ghs-1s, sbc old reduce the
possibility of unwanted i iden':s altirV. the Kashmir t*rdrr. The
Pkistagnis apparently feel that the present o?ffars them their- best
a;prprrt ity for dealing vti.h t? ,~ Aighva quest-ion; whir,' Pa.klst' 's
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2.
new firmness comes at a ttn when its ralutions with India are still
dangerously tense, the Kashmir negotiations are deadlocked and there
is virtually no likelihood that India would commence military opera-
ions in Kashmir or East Bengal without provocation. If Pakistan is
able to stand up under the strain of economic warfare with India, as
it believes it cain, it thus has a breathing spell of several months in
which to deal with other outstanding problems. Although Pakistan's
present course is likely to intensify the strain between it and Afghanis-
tan and conceivably might evran lead tcf a shooting war, the Paki Eels
olden?ly believe that it may eventually result in a settlement of the
tribal question.
NOTED IN BRIEF
Tiawkish mtsdvin t JIB at wi.thcmt a written security agreement
are still evident although th , Turkish Government has made no formal
approach to the US for scm?, months. On the occasion vf Amt sador
Wadswt rth's recent depart i for ashi on, ]Foreign Ministex Sadak
infr;rmafly requested th .t. coresiderrati in be giver. to holding Tu.r?kish-
US military staff talks to cane sides comino defense plaits and mutual
assistance In the evrentt of wsr. He also urgred that--if or ty to deter
aggression--announcement be wade Vr) the USSR of the intention of
the US to join Turkey 0 resisting tesstof. Although the Turks may
not expect their pleas try a.chi. ;yve any zone rete results in the: near
future, the matter of security guava aes is so Important t'to them that
they will continue weir efforts to obtain US commitments.
improvement in Turkeys balince 2f t1ra.d . And foreign exchange pori-
tion is foreshadowed by the nnouncemant, of a bumper cotton crop
aad by the news that product tcua in 1949 of refined sugar was fax,
greater than in any preceding year. In MO Turkey will thus be able
to export more raw cotton and may veil have to Import ao refined
User V all.
In future' perators of S 11d.1an cones w.:1 probably be able to deal
with the Parts firm o? Bertr& or, , cash : tad carrry basis only. Efforts
on the part of this firm to eo'iect 80,000 incomes in payment for a
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SECT
baton ordered by the to ' i.m appear L have been una r:.ai
i . At one point, the Syrian t , 61`i ermai 'nt indicated Its intention of
returning the baton to Bertr: ;d, despite offers oaf 'repos tedly as much
as 200,000 francs by ssuvernir col t rs. Since the Shishakli coup,
however, there has bcfcn no further, word concerning the whereabouts
Ai flee baton. It is quite prth :ble that the rear owner is Shnshakii
but very unlikely that the Paris firm has collected the 80,000 francs-
TI much discussed Saudi hate .van Lo Syria now awaits the King's
&z t8icon. Even should this d;: cisio a h f a ror abie, it is not clear where
the money w d ayoarc4 f rom. SAC 3tfiki; is are fully a nizant of
the inability of SAG to rid S rfa fi?a :i cialiy,and their anxtstieS, have
not bemn lessened by ARAMCO's q a t: st Ang of SAC~ls need for financial
assistan :e if they " pp ove tale i+6an. These offietals, rel xcta t fir, do
so themselves, have requested that Ambassador Childs talk to the
Ki=ig a +d attempt to dis :ourag. his mine-et Ustic approach t the subject.
Mesnwhile,the Syrian GoverAsuea t. l =vs announced that negotiations hav,4
?n successful. This a.,mouncemecet, with seems premature, may
he unfortunate reps rcussior&As upc . the prestige of the eurrect re 'irne
should t het none y ~ be f