NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 29 JUNE 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000100040009-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2001
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: June 29, 1949
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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NEAR EAST /AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF REPORTS AND ESTIMATES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WORKING PAPER
N,= E : This document is a working paper, NOT
an official CIA issuance, and has not necessarily
been coordinated with other ORE producing compo-
nents. it represents current thinking by one
group of specialists in C iA , and is designed for
use by others engaged on similar or overlapping
studies. The opinions expressed herein may be
revised before final and official publication. It
is intended solely for the information of the
addressee and not for further dissemination.
a cam;. o /
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0 DEC
TO: TS S V
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RA&ARIWO
NEAR EAST AF CA BRANCH CONFIDENTIAL
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY Vol. IV No. 25
or Week Ending
2f) June 1949
LCREBCE
Diomedes Succeeds to Premiersrni ' The scheduled swearing-in of the
74-year-old Alexander Diomedes as the new Prime Minister of Greece, along
with the old cabinet, on O June will bring a halt to the six-day government
crisis resulting from Sophoulls'ss death, Tsaldarls, leader of the plurality
(37%) Populist Party, had been frustrated in his initial attempts to form
a cabinet by the refusal of the second-ranking Liberal Party to serve
under him. Important in breaking the political deadlock that might soon
have called for strong measures was the combined urging of King Paul
and the British and iJ e.mbassac.ors.
Diomedes is a respected financier and a Liberal without strong party
coloring who will be able temporarily to preserve the old coalition cabinet,
but his task will soon become much more difficult because of his relative
inexperience in politics and his lack of a stabilizing influence comparable
to that of Sophoulis. Without constant outside urging, there appears to be
no one in the cabinet or in Parliament possessing the required ability
to command approval and restrain political factionalism. For the time
being, however, a slight improvement in the functioning of the cabinet may
actually occur, since certain delays in important business had been occasioned
in recent weeks by the growing infirmity of Sophoulis and his frequent
refusal to delegate power.
Otherwise the Greek Government will continue its course much as
before. The military command t firmly in the hands of General Pap< os,
and has now been freed to a remarkable degree from demoralizing political
influence. The day-today run of urgent economic and political matters
coming up before the government is handled almost exclusively by the
streamlined Cabinet Coordination Council, in close cooperation with
British and American advisors. For the time being, Parliament has
actually lost much of its normal significance, except as a sounding board
for public opinion, and largely for this reason has recently given the
appearance of lethargy. If under these circumstances the now intensified
1DENTIAL
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CONF1DENI1HL
2.
party and personal rivalries were to result in a new and more prolong-
ed cabinet crisis, the King might be tempted to take matters into his
own hands for the sake of the war effort,
TURKEY
sition anger rises: Although general elections are not due to be
held until ne,d year, the question of how the balloting will be conducted
is already the subject of heated discussion among Turkey's political
leaders. The government's failure, to present an electoral reform bill
to the National Assembly, which has just adjourned until November,
has become a sore point with the opposition leaders; the recent meeting
of the opposition Democratic Party was reportedly so bitter on the
subject as to evoke a denunciation of their attitude by Prime Minister
Ginaltay. Political tempers are likely to remain high daring the months
to come.
The principal opposition demand is that the judiciary supervise the
electoral process (particularly with respect to the secret casting and
the open counting of votes) to prevent repetition of the governmental
rigging of the vote which almost certainly took place last time, in 1948.
The Democrats feel, rightly or wrongly, that a fair election would put them
in power in place of the perennially ruling People's Republican Party,
and some of the more inflammable (and cynical) members of the
opposition have begun to hint dangerously at revolt. Thus far, the
government has evaded the issue; although Giinaltay recently made a
half-promise to "persuade his colleagues" to accept electoral reform,
there is no doubt that many members of his party strenuously oppose
any such concession, which they know full well might not only end their
own political careers but also the easy livelihoods with which their
friends and relatives have been provided. Perhaps the recent flareup
of recriminations may persuade the diehards that the opposition is
really in earnest this time and that some further relaxation of the
25 A Br ent party' tight control over elections might be judicious.
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00DUA 1ItN--
3.
Crisis Rrejn While the Shah has been devoting his energies to
building up his military establishment, dissatisfaction and unrest have
been increasing among the people of Iran. Riots, provoked by local
bread shortages, have begun to crop out in the north, and Iranian merchants
and religious leaders are preparing to submit a petition directly to the
Shah demanding an end to "political and, economic anarchy" and threatening
a general ptrAe unless the government can remedy the situation at once.
These important groups are probably suffering from the current decline
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4.
oi commercial activity in Iran, but they are also apparently using the
present situation as a protest against the concentration of power in the
hands of the Shah and the array. The Saed Government, despite its
failure to avert bread shortages, has made a relatively commendable
record during its seven months in office, and ;aed himself, although
he admits that MRs government is i icir heavy attack, feels that he
can weather the storm by re -,h fi.iang i s cabinet. The multiplicity
of economic problems facing the country, however, and the develop-
ment of opposition among influ yntl groups as a result of the Shah's
preoccupation with military matters suggest that pions proposals and
cabinet shifts may not be enough. Unless some concrete action is
undertaken to improve the situationu, the [present government may fall.
Iiasmuch as the candidates for the premiership who would have the
Shah's approval have proved themseives less capable than Saed, the
Shah may find himself faced with -V.1 cruct internal situation.
!, ..`,18 Ar,'ar~^c q
PA
:india stand t The UN Commission for India and - akistan appears
to have exhausted all possibility Of obtaining a Kashmir truce agreement,
through its own efforts. In response to the Commission's latest over-
tures, India has once again insisted on the right to occupy northern
Kashmir and on its own formula fr* withdrawing the bulk of the
Indian forces from Kashmir; whilee a committee from UNCIP is now
in Karachi making a final attempt V.) find some basis for agreement,
there is no indication that Pakistan would accept India's terms,
which contravene the spirit if not the letter of the underlying
agreement proposed by UNCIP on 1=3 August 1048 and later accepted by
both governments: Although India apparently hoped that its latest
statement might be interpreted as an acceptance of 3CIP s truce terms,
thus placing the onus for the breea~,xl'ovif of negotiations on Pakistan, it
is probable that the Commission will now declare that both sides have
rejected its terms and will urge the two governments to accept a truce
arbitrator. If such an appeal fail? s, the, Commission can do nothing but
refer the whole matter back to the 3eourity CoPmncil.
I',O T D Ili BRIEF
?rice is anot the qal2jfactor affectipg the. _ .~.t market for Turkish
&r Smoking is ?:n habit in which the taste preferences arse y
the consumer have an important bearing on sales, and exports of the
T AL
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aromatic Turkish blends have been limited up to now by the preference
of many Europeans for the milder Virginia types. What is happening
in the case of the British market, however, suggests that the scarcity
of dollars in Europe may slowly result in a re-education of the taste
of European palates: during World War I, the British lost their taste
for Turkish tobacco because there warn"t any for them to smoke; after
World War 11, unable to get all the dollar exchange they wanted, the
British began to reappear as buyers of the Turkish product. If this
trend continues, it will be a fortunate one for Turkey: about one out
of every twelve members of the `f u.--kisb population is dependent upon
the noxious weed for an existence.
* ax
The Turks are represented the e t ?talks which have been taking
p ace in Tehran a.on Near and Middle Eastern leaders; as the most
powerful military nation in the area (with even more powerful friends),.
Turkey could hardly be excluded. The Turks, however, while not averse
to strengt4ening relations with their neighbors, are not in the least in-
terested in entering into any military pacts. Their price for the
assumption of any such obligation would continue to be the unequivocal
promise of Western support, which is not at present forthcoming.
Relations etwp#D Afghanistan an Eaki Stan have main become critical
because of an incident of a fortnight ago, in which a Royal Pakistan
Air Force plane machine- gunned and bombed an assemblage of Afghan
tribesmen some 800 yards within Afghans territory. While Pakistan's
failure to provide a satisfactory explanation of the affair has undoubtedly
nettled the Afghan Government, the real importance of the incident is that
it has almost certainly aroused real resentment among many of the
border tribesmen, who have hitherto appeared only moderately responsive
to the anti-Pakistan agitation going on in Afghanistan. If the tribesmen s
current resentment should be aggravated by further propaganda from
Kabul or by other unfortunate incidents, their natural restiveness
and bellicosity might flare up in disturbances serious enough to involve
Afghanistan and Pakistan in armed conflict.
CON F1DENTIM
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6.
A series of mysterious explosions which took place in the Mezze citadel
near Damascus on he ig t o 5 dune may have serious consequences
for Syria. The brother of President Zaim has indicated that over three
million dollars worth of newly acquired French ammunition was destroyed,
while another source states flatly that the loss involved virtually all of
Syria's munitions reserves.
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