USSR: AGRICULTURE: WINTER CROP CONDITIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01056A000100230001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 7, 1978
• Content Type: BRIEF

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. S Agricultur+
Winter, Crop ondi.tio s
An Intelligence Assessment
Secret
GC AB 78-001
7 February 1978
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Warning Notice
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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REL. . .- This Information has been Authorized for
Release to ...
Gassifi.d by 366338
Ex.mpt from G.ns d D.dassificatian Sch.dd6
of E.O. 11652, .x.mption cat gory:
S.c. 58(1), (2), and (3)
Aatomaticaly ddassifid on:
dom io osm" to d.Mrnrn.
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V'o Foreil-n Di.sseni
USSR Agriculture
SUMMARY
The winter grain crop, which normally accounts for roughly
one-third of total USSR grain production, has sustained only an
average amount of damage thus far. Current evidence suggests
that 15 to 20 percent of the area sown this year has been killed.
As of early February, about one-third of the winter grain area
has at best minimal snow cover and remains vulnerable to sudden
cold snaps.
Assessment of the full extent of this year's damage cannot
be made until late spring. Winterkilled areas will be reseeded
with lower-yielding spring grains, but even more than normal
losses this winter would not necessarily preclude a successful
1978 grain harvest.
Unless the 1978 grain crop reaches the plan target of 220
million tons -- a level reached only twice in the past -- we
expect Soviet grain purchases for delivery in marketing year 1979
to be very large. For example, a crop of 205 million tons -- the
mid-point of a 195 million to 215 million ton range suggested by
recent yield trends -- would suggest gross imports of 20 million
to 25 million tons in the marketing year from 1 October 1978 to
30 September 1979.
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No Foreign Dissem
USSR: Winter Crop Conditions
Winter grain sowing operations last fall were largely
successful. Favorable weather in the European USSR, where most
of the winter grain is grown, fostered seeding on about 38.5
million hectares, equal to the area sown for the 1977 harvest
and roughly 3 million hectares above the average for the last
five years (table 1).* An even larger area would have been
sown had waterlogged fields and some localized flooding in the
north-central Ukraine not hampered the 1977 harvest in this area
and partially precluded winter sowing.
Crop development during the fall was favorable in most areas.
Late August and early September weather was generally warm and
dry. Sowing in much of the Ukraine, Moldavia, and the North
Caucasus was completed at optimal dates, and occasional light
showers provided moisture to the newly sown grains. Temperatures
were 5? to 6?C below normal from mid-September to early October
but gradual cooling hardened the plants, making them less susceptible
to freezing temperatures. By mid-October, winter grains in the
Central, Volga, Central Black Earth, and Ural regions had entered
winter dormancy, and growth in the southern winter grain areas --
the lower Volga, central and southern Ukraine, and the north
Caucasus -- had slowed. 5X1D
Despite these overall good conditions, some key areas
suffered local problems. In the Central Black Earth Region,
which normally accounts for roughly 4 percent of the USSR's
winter grain production, 25X1D
poor emergence of the winter grains and ow crop vigor levels
Fields in the adjacent areas of the northern Volga-
yat a an olga Regions had uneven growth patterns. Much of this
area was hit by early frosts. Temperatures dropped to -8?C for
more than 48 hours in mid-October, causing spotty winterkill
of insufficiently hardened plants.
* Soviet announcements put the area sown to fall grains in
state and collective farms at 36.9 million hectares. In addition,
we estimate that roughly 1.5 million hectares were sown by other
state enterprises and private farmers.
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No Foreign Dissent
USSR: GRAIN AREA
(million hectares
All grain:
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Harvested area
126.7
127.2
127.9
127.8
129 3
Winter grain:
Sown areal
28.4
37.0
35.5
37.5
38.5
Harvested area
26.9
29.8
29.2
27.4
39.0
Winterkill 2
1.5
7.2
6.3
10.1
9.5
1978
--
38.5
--
6-8 3
1. Sown in preceding fall for harvest in the given year. Includes
state and collective farms as well as private holdings and
other state enterprises.
2. Includes fall sown grains used as green forage crops in the
spring.
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 25X1 D
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No Foreign Dissent
In November, unseasonably warm weather renewed plant
growth in many areas, leaving the winter grains vulnerable to
sudden freezes. Temperatures for the month were 50 to 7?C above
normal in much of the European USSR and 8? to 9?C warmer than
usual in the northern Urals. Plants continued to develop in
much of the Baltic Region, Belorussia, Ukraine, and North
Caucasus, and previously dormant winter grains renewed growth
in much of the southern part of the Central Black Earth and
lower Volga Regions. Apart from the southernmost oblasts of
the Ukraine and North Caucasus, vegetative growth normally
ceases in late October or early November. This season, growth
continued into late November and early December when colder
temperatures put plants in most areas into dormancy.
Most of the damage done thus far to the winter grains
occurred between mid-December and mid-January. A succession
of high pressure systems moved slowly across the northern
European USSR, sweeping cold, arctic air into Moldavia, the
central and southern Ukraine, the Crimea, and, at times,
Krasnodar Kray. Freezes to -22?C were common, with temperatures
as low as -20?C reported as far south as Krasnodar. Because
of the unseasonably warm weather in November, plants in some
areas were not sufficiently hardened to withstand the sudden
severe cold nor was snow cover adequate to insulate the crops
(maps A and B).
Current Status of the Winter Grains
For the USSR as a whole, the area lost to winterkill thus
far appears to be no greater than average, that is roughly 15
percent to 20 percent of the sown area. Conditions have varied,
however, and in some localized areas losses are believed to be
substantial (map C):
-- Poor emergence and exposure to killing frosts
have lowered yield prospects for much of the
Central Black Earth Region.*
-- In some parts of the important winter-grain producing
areas of Moldavia, the Ukraine, and the north
Caucasus, frequent exposure to killing temperatures
without adequate snow cover has led to above average
winterkill.
* Winterkill is traditionally high in the Central Black Earth
Region. Each year over the past 16 years one-third of the winter
grain area in this region has had to be resown. In 1977, winterkill
exceeded 50 percent of the sown area in many of the region's oblasts.
-4-
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Map A
USSR: Mid-December 1977 Snow Cover
? Station reporting potentially killing temperatures
(below -16 ?C) during 12-18 December 1977
Map B
USSR: Early January 1978 Snow Cover
? Station reporting potentially killing temperatures
(below -16 ?C)during 6-12 January 1978
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USSR: Early February 1978 Winter Grain Conditions
SECRET
NOFORN
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\'o Foreign Dis.senl
Although the area with at least minimal snow cover has
expanded since mid-January, much of the winter grain area remains
snow free and vulnerable to extreme temperatures. A full
assessment of winter grain damage will not be possible until
late spring. Alternate periods of thawing and freezing, which
can cause widespread damage, are common during the next two
months.
The 1978 Grain Outlook
Winter grain losses do not preclude a successful 1978
grain harvest. Areas lost during the winter will be resown or
overseeded to spring grains. Although widespread resowing
operations interfere with efforts to seed spring grains and
other spring crops, the Soviets are in relatively good shape
this year. Fall plowing eases the spring work load and enhances
spring grain yields. Last fall 112 million hectares were plowed,
14 million hectares more than in the fall of 1976.
Soviet plans call for a grain harvest of 220 million tons.
This target is in keeping with the 1976-80 Five-Year Plan goals
but is almost 25 million tons above 1977 production (table 2).
Projection of past yield trends, employing varying assumptions
regarding 1978 weather prospects, indicates that expectations
for a crop within the 195 million to 215 million ton range
would be more reasonable.* A crop within this range, which is
by no means certain, would leave Moscow short of the grain
required to continue the current strong recovery of the livestock
program and would necessitate imports. For example, a crop
of 205 million tons, the midpoint of the range, suggests Soviet
imports in marketing year 1979 (October 1978-September 1979)
of 20 million to 25 million tons.**
* Calculations are based on an expected harvested area of 128
million hectares, only slightly above the average area harvested
during 1973-76.
** Soviet purchases for delivery in marketing year 1978 now total
between 20 million and 25 million tons; actual deliveries are
expected to spill over into MY 1979.
- 7 -
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No Foreign Dis.sem
USSR: GRAIN PRODUCTION
(million tons)
Average Annual,
1971-75
1976
19771
1978 Plan
Total Grain
181.6
223.8
195.5
220
wheat
89.0
96.9
93
NA
corn
10.2
10.1
11
NA
rice
1.8
2.0
2.2
NA
1. As of early February 1978, the only 1977 grain production
data available from the Soviets are for all grain, wheat,
corn, and rice.
This paper was prepared by the Agriculture
Team of the Environment and Resource Analysis
Center, Office of Geographic and Cartographic
Research. Comments and queries are welcome
and should be directed to on
351-3748.
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