USSR: EARLY AUGUST PROSPECTS FOR GRAIN PRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01056A000100200001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 26, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 10, 1977
• Content Type: BRIEF

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Secret
USSR: Early August Prospects
for Grain Production
Secret
GC AB 77-004
10 August 1977
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NOFOR N
Environment and Resource
Analysis Brief
USSR: Early August Prospects for Grain Production
FORWARD
This is the fourth in a series of 1977 Analysis Briefs reporting
current crop conditions and estimating grain production in the USSR.
Additional briefs are scheduled for September and October.
Briefs are produced by the Environment and Resource Analysis
Center (ERAC) of the Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research
and are coordinated with the Office of Economic Research. Weather
support is provided by the USAF Environmental Technical Applica-
tions Center. In addition, formal and informal consultation/exchange
sessions are held with the Foreign Agricultural Service and the
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
METHODOLOGY
ERAC derives it's production estimates from crop models which are
used to aggregate and compare both current and historical data. All
intelligence data sources, including satellite imagery systems and
meteorological data as well traditional sources-human intelligence
reporting, translations, and the open literature-are used in the analysis
and estimate of current crop conditions.
Data are analyzed by a multidisciplinary team that includes
imagery analysts, agronomists, geographers, meteorologists, economists,
and computer specialists.
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KEY JUDGMENTS
? We now estimate that total 1977 Soviet grain production will be
220 to 225 million tons, slightly below our early July forecast.
The reduction reflects marginal deterioration in prospects for
spring grains east of the Urals.
? Our projection depends on late-afternoon thunderstorms con-
tinuing to provide sufficient rainfall for grains in the southern
Urals and northern Kazakhstan. As of early August, only one-
fourth of the spring grain area east of the Urals had been cut.
? We expect wheat production will be at near record levels and will
account for nearly half of the harvested grain.
? Wet conditions in European USSR are complicating this year's
harvest but, so far, have not delayed its pace.
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TOTAL GRAIN PRODUCTION
Based on crop conditions as of early August and projected weather patterns
through harvesting, we continue to estimate a bumper Soviet grain harvest, about 220
to 225 million tons (see Table 1). The high end of our new forecast is the same as our
early July estimate of 225 million tons, but we now believe there is a good possibility
that the final harvest may be a few million tons less. The adjustment in our estimate
reflects marginally lower soil moisture levels in parts of the spring grain area east of
the Urals (see Map 1).
Although we project the size of the 1977 Soviet grain crop to approach last year's
output, its composition is significantly different. Total winter grain production should
reach 72 million tons, compared with 61 million tons in 1976. This year, an
exceptionally large winter wheat crop will probably offset lower production of spring
wheat and spring barley. We project total spring grain production, including pulses,
to range from 148 to 153 million tons, at least 10 million tons less than in 1976. The
primary swing factor in our spring grain estimate is projected outturn in Kazakhstan.
We expect grain production in Kazakhstan to reach 22 to 26 million tons. If soil
moisture levels in Kazakhstan remain adequate throughout August, then the larger
output should prevail.
We estimate total wheat production at 105 to 107 million tons-near the 1973
record of 110 million tons. The bottom of this range currently appears likely because
of sizable pockets of low soil moisture in the southern Urals and western Kazakhstan.
Feedgrain production should reach 102 to 105 million tons.
Across most of the Soviet grain belt, less than average winterkill in the fall-seeded
grain and better than normal spring seeding conditions have resulted in one of the
largest grain areas ever. The Central Statistical Administration (CSA) in Moscow has
reported that the area sown to grain in 1976-77 was expanded to 131.4 million
hectares. Assuming normal abandonment of 2 to 2112 million hectares, the harvested
area should reach 129 million hectares, the largest area since 1964.
Winter Grains
Much of the overall success of the 1977 total grain crop rests firmly on the
unusually large production of winter grains. In contrast to the previous year-when
winter losses were more than a quarter of the crop-this year's winter grains sustained
only moderate damage. As a result, the winter wheat harvest will encompass about 22
million hectares. In the Ukraine, the harvested acreage will probably exceed that
region's previous record by at least 15 percent.
Confirmation of this excellent winter grain crop is provided by imagery (see
Images A and B) and ground observations by US exchange teams. Soviet press reports
from the Ukraine, Moldavia, and parts of the North Caucasus tout record and near-
record yields. Three Ukrainian oblasts-adjacent to the Black Sea-already have
substantially boosted planned sales to the state.*
* This is consistent with our last publication which projected yields 10 percent greater than previous
maximums in these areas. USSR: Current Status of the 1977 Grain Crop, GC AB 77-003, 8 July 1977.
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Estimate
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
TOTAL .................................
181.2
168.2
222.5
195.6
140.1
223.8
220-225
Winter Grains ..................
63.0
40.6
63.5
62.5
48.6
60.9
72
Wheat ................................
47.8
29.4
49.4
44.7
36.6
44.6
57
Rye ....................................
12.8
9.6
10.8
15.2
9.0
14.0
13
Spring Grains .......................
118.2
127.6
159.0
133.1
91.2
162.9
148-153
Barley ................................
32.3
35.1
51.7
51.6
32.8
67.1
59-60
Wheat ................................
51.1
56.6
60.5
39.2
29.5
52.3
48-50
Other .................................
34.7
35.6
46.7
41.9
28.7
43.1
41-43
Localized showers produced an irregular pattern of crop development in the
major spring grain region east of the Urals. In June, lack of adequate rainfall reduced
soil moisture levels in an area that extended from the southern Urals to northern
Kazakhstan (see Map 2 and Images C and D). Beginning in July, broad frontal
systems have swept moderate rain storms across the Urals and into the Siberian sprin
wheat areas.
As a result of the increase in precipitation, the area of moisture deficiency has
been noticeably reduced. In addition, imagery confirms that many small, scattered
areas of improved crop vigor now dot the zone of moisture deficiency (see Image E).
We expect this weather pattern to continue through late August; however, these new
storm systems may produce somewhat less rainfall than the amounts which fell in
July.
In European USSR prospects continue for above average spring grain yields since
moderate tempertures and above normal precipitation have prevailed since early
spring. Barley-the major spring grain crop in European Russia-will talley less this
year because of the increase in winter wheat seeding. Barley is normally sown to
replace fall-seeded grains that do not survive the winter.
Harvest Progress
Despite unusually wet conditions in Moldavia, the eastern Ukraine, and parts of
the North Causasus, the progress of the 1977 grain harvest is ahead of the 5-year
average and substantially faster than in 1976. According to the Soviet Central
Statistical Administration by August 1 grain and pulse crops, excluding corn, were cut
on 44.5 million hectares-slightly more than one-third of this year's crop area. In
addition, the Soviets reported that about four-fifths of the cut grain had been
threshed (see Table 2), a considerable improvement compared with earlier progress
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Map 1. USSR: Crop Vigor Comparison 1976, 1977
Better crop vigor in 1977 M Better crop vigor in 1976
Economic region boundary
Boundary of major grain growing area
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TABLE 2
USSR: Harvest Progress 1 2
Million hectares
Actual Harvested Area
126.7
127.2
127.9
127.7
129
Area Cut as of 1 Au-
gust ...........................
26
18
46
18
36
Percent Cut .................
21
14
36
14
28
`Cut and threshed, excluding corn.
'Components and percentages are rounded
'Accounts for normal abondonment of 2-2' million hectares
reports. In mid-July, threshing delays had reached 50 percent of the harvest and
caused officials to express concern about grain quality in southern European USSR.*
Initially, Soviet officials had expected significant harvest delays in European
USSR to result from storm-flattened crops-more than 20 million hectares by some
press accounts. farmers are adapting
well to this year s complicated conditions and are experiencing only minor
problems. * *
OUTLOOK
If growing and harvesting conditions do not significantly deteriorate during the
remainder of this crop season, the 1977 Soviet grain harvest is likely to remain in the
bumper range. Attaining this level of production will require that harvest losses be
only average and that current favorable weather conditions-especially east of the
Urals-prevail.
Since early August, however, heavy rains have delayed the harvest in northern
Belorussia and the Baltics. So long as the excessive rainfall is limited to this area, the
impact on total grain output will be minor. The affected regions' share of total grain
production averages roughly 5 percent.
Due to unusually wet harvest conditions in southern European USSR, the quality
of at least a portion of the early harvested winter wheat crop may be jeopardized. The
rapid harvest of winter wheat and the high moisture content of the grain will
probably overtax drying capacity. Chances are that some of this wheat will not be
suitable for milling or breadmaking. Excess moisture-greater than 14 to 15 percent-
results in spoilage of stored grain and a deterioration of the gluten content.
With about three-fourths of the spring grain east of the Urals remaining to be
cut, final output is far from certain. In West Siberia, late harvesting is frequently
affected by snow and frost conditons which occur in late September and early
October.
* In most areas a two-stages method of harvesting-whereby the grain is cut and raked into swaths
and then threshed at a later date-is being used to reduce the losses associated with flattened crops. Two 25X1 D
Note: This paper was produced by the Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research and 5X1A
coordinated with the Office of Economic Research. Comments and questions may be directed to
Code 143, Extension 3748. Date of information 8 August 1977.
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Image A.
#a LANDSAT II Imagery, Summer 1976, Southern Ukraine
Excellent IR return from the 1977 imagery indicates improved crop vigor
levels in this year's winter wheat.
Image B.
11age=- LANDSAT II Imagery, Summer 1977, Southern Ukraine
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Image C.
.,..~* LANDSAT II Imagery, July 1976, Northern Kazakhstan
Imagery depicts the same spring wheat region at milky-ripe stage of development - when the kernels form in
the grain head. Good IR return on 1976 imagery denotes substantially better crop conditions last year.
Image D.
Image. LANDSAT II Imagery, July 1977, Northern Kazakhstan
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Image E. LANDSAT II Imagery, July 1977, West Siberia
Imagery depicts localized rainfall pattern in spring wheat region. Red IR return indicates good crop vigor from recent
shower activity.
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Map 2. USSR: Meteorological Composite Depicting Soil Moisture as of 20 July 1977
F-
Zone of excess moisture Zone of moisture deficit
(>20?? deviation from (>20?) deviation from
cumulative norm) cumulative norm)
Mean July storm track
Economic region boundary
Boundary of. major grain
growing area
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