USSR: EARLY AUGUST PROSPECTS FOR GRAIN PRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 1, 1976
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
Secret
NOFORN
USSR: Early August Prospects for
Grain Production
Secret
GC AB 76-006
1 August 1976
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
SECRET
Environment Analysis Brief
USSR: Early August Prospects for
Grain Production
Summary
As of 9 August, Soviet grain prospects remain good. Production is estimated
at 195 million metric tons, unchanged from our earlier estimate in July. Produc-
tion of this amount would exceed last year's disastrous harvest by some 55 mil-
lion tons and would be approximately equal to the 1974 harvest, the second
largest in Soviet history.
By early August, the winter grain harvest, reportedly delayed ten to four-
teen days in many areas due to wet weather, had moved northward into Belo-
russia, the Central Non-Black-Earth Zone and the Volga-Vyatka region. Although
conditions are conducive for grain lodging, only
localized problems to date. Consequently, we have not change our earlier winter
grain estimate of 45 million metric tons.
Excess moisture and delayed crop maturity in European Russia have not
as yet reduced our spring grain estimate which remains at 150 million tons. Over-
all prospects for spring grain production remain favorable. However, if "wet
harvest" conditions should continue, adverse effects on grain quality can be
expected. By 1 August, 85 percent of the crop remained to be cut and threshed
compared to a long-term average of 74 percent. The onset of winter earlier than
usual could lead to major losses in late September and early October if the pace
of the harvest does not pick up.
Note: This paper was produced by the Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research
and coordinated with the Office of Economic Research. Comments and questions may
be directed to Code 143, Extension 3748. Date of information
9 August 1976.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
SECRET
Status of Winter Grains
Our estimate of winter grain production remains unchanged at 45 million
tons. This would be the smallest crop since 1.972-a direct result of the unusually
large amount of winterkill. The Soviet press has reported "good yields" in much
of the Ukraine. In Poltava Oblast, winter wheat yields are reported to be 32-35
centners per hectare, a near record level.' Although wet weather conditions are
conducive to grain lodging, evidence indicates minimal problems to date.
Status of Spring Grains
Spring grain production normally accounts for approximately two-thirds of
the total Soviet grain production. They are grown primarily in areas of low soil
moisture which greatly restricts their yield potential. As a result, spring grain
yields, particularly in the New Lands of Kazakhstan and West Siberia-tradi-
tionally high-risk zones of agriculture-are greatly dependent upon rainfall in
June and July.
Spring grain production is presently estimated at 150 million metric tons,
59 million tons more than last year's disastrous spring grain harvest, and second
only to record 1973 spring grain harvest of 159 million tons. Nevertheless, two
potentially yield-reducing events have occurred that may require a reduction in
the estimate when further evidence becomes available.
1. The continued rains in European Russia during the critical flowering and
filling stage of grain development have been excessive to the point of
possibly reducing yields. Crop maturity has been delayed some 10-14 days.
2. The dry conditions which have prevailed in the North Caucasus and
southernmost areas of the Ukrainian corn belt may reduce potential yields.
1976 vs. 1975
Moisture conditions and plant vigor levels which existed in July of this
year are in sharp contrast to those which prevailed over much of the Soviet Union
in July of 1975 (see Figures 1 and 2).
In 1975, critically low levels of soil moisture prevailed in all of Kazakhstan,
the Urals, the Volga regions, the Caucasus, and most of the southern and eastern
portions of the Ukraine. By the end of July, much of the grain crops in these
areas had suffered irreversible damage, the result of severe stress during the
crucial stages of plant development. Grain yields dropped dramatically. Spring
grain production fell to 91 million metric tons, about 35 million tons less than the
I Characteristically, the Soviet press reports the best situations. Thus, the excellent condi-
tions in Poltava cannot be taken as those prevailing over a larger area.
2
SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
SECRET
1971-75 average. As a result, total Soviet grain production amounted to only 140
million tons, the lowest since 1965.
This year, in contrast to the situation of 1975, cool temperatures and above
average precipitation-favorable for the growth and development of small
grains-have existed over most of European Russia since early spring. Prospects
for above-average yields appear likely. The only areas in European Russia which
have suffered from serious moisture deficiencies have been in regions of the
southern Ukraine contiguous with the Black Sea (Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson
Oblasts) and the Northern Caucasus (northern Stravropol Kray and eastern
Rostov Oblast).
East of the Urals, in the main spring grain region, numerous and localized
showers have produced an irregular pattern of crop development. Areas exhibit-
ing potential for above-average yields are interspersed with areas which have suf-
fered irreparable damage due to low soil moisture. Critically dry conditions this
year have been primarily confined to the adjoining areas of northeastern Kazakh-
stan (Tselinograd and Pavlodar Oblasts) and southern West Siberia (Novosibirsk,
Kemerov Oblasts) and Krasnoyarsk Kray.
Harvest Outlook
Cool, wet weather conditions in several regions within European USSR
have delayed ripening and harvesting of this year's grain crop. By 1 August, 13
percent of the spring wheat crop, 85 percent of the winter wheat crop, and 40
percent of the spring barley crop had reached the combine ripe stage of maturity
(see Figure 3). The winter grain harvest, reportedly delayed 10-14 days due to
high moisture levels, had moved northward into Belorussia, the central Non-
Black-Earth Zone and the Volga-Vyatka region.
Additional harvest delays are being caused by frequent rains in the Central
Chernozem region, the lower and middle Volga, as well as in parts of the eastern
Ukraine and Non-Chernozem Zone. The Volga Steppe has been the most seriously
affected by downpours and strong winds which reportedly flattened some grain
crops. However, since most of this year's lodging occurred after the grain had
matured, the impact on net yields will be minimal .2
As of 2 August, the USSR Central Statistical Administration reported that
grain and pulse crops (excluding corn) had been cut on an area of 27.4 million
hectares, about one-fifth of the total sown acreage (see Table 1). Threshing has
thus far been completed on about 67 percent of this area, although in the Ukraine
some Oblasts have developed big gaps between the two activities. Poltava and
2 Lodging describes a condition resulting when, because of rain and wind, grain stalks
bend or break and form a flattened or tangled mass that is difficult to harvest. It generally
occurs during the later stages of crop development-when the grains are tallest and weighted
down with mature heads-and when plant growth has been especially lush. The extent of the
losses associated with lodging depends partly on the stage of the plants' development when
lodging occurs, the type of harvesting method employed, and weather conditions during
harvesting. Production losses due to post-maturity lodging are minimized in the USSR by the
use of hand harvesting.
3
SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-gptj0j1056A000100140001-3
Crop Vigor Levels, Mid-July 1975
High 0 Medium = Low
Crop Vigor Levels, Mid-July 1976
High
4
SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27: CIA-Fp,7056A000100140001-3
Average Stage of Grain Maturity as of August 1st
Swathing stage of ripeness for winter wheat
Combine ripe stage for winter wheat and swathing stage of ripeness for spring wheat
USSR: Harvest Progress 1
(Million hectares) 2
1 August ....... ... 26 40 26 18 46 18
(23%) (34%) (21%) (15%) (37%) (15%)
1 September .......... 71 70 75 76 80
(62%) (60%) (61%) (62%) (64%)
Total ............ 114.6 116.1 122.7 123.2 125.3 125 (Est.)
1 Cut and threshed, excluding corn.
2 Components and percentages are rounded.
Zhitomir have reportedly only threshed 18 and 3 percent respectively of their
cut grains. Such reports are not unusual in light of this year's "wet harvest."
In the Central Statistical Administration report on 6-month Plan Fulfillment,
the total sown grain acreage was officially announced as 131 million hectares
(see Table 2). If such acreage is actually harvested it will be about 5 million
hectares more than normal. Warm, dry weather during the next two months is
of paramount importance to allow Soviet farmers to overcome current lag in
harvesting. The onset of winter earlier than usual could lead to major losses in
late September and early October if the pace of harvest does not progress more
rapidly.
5
SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
SECRET
Average Estimated
1973-75 1976
Total .................... 127 129
Winter Grains 28.5 261
Spring Grains ...... 98.5 103 2
1 Reflects an estimated 9.5 million hectares of winterkill plus
an allowance of approximately 2 million hectares for use as green
chop and spring pasture out of a total sown acreage of 37.5 million
hectares,
2 We estimate sown acreage at 105 million hectares. Past his-
torical relationships between spring sown and final harvested acre-
age would suggest an abandonment of roughly 2 million hectares.
Total Grain Production
Soviet grain production of 195 million metric tons,* would be 55 million tons
more than last year's disastrous harvest and some 14 million tons more than the
average for 1971-75 (see Table 3). Production of this amount would be below
the Soviet goal of approximately 205 million tons for 1976 and substantially less
than the average annual production of 215-220 million tons called for in 1976-80
plan.
Annual Annual
Average Average Estimated
1966-70 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1971-75 1976
Total 167.6 181.2 168.2 222.5 195.6 139.9 181.5 195.0
Winter grains 2...... 50.8 63.0 40.6 63.5 62.5 48.6 55.6 45.0
Wheat 35.9 47.8 29.4 49.4 44.7 36.6 41.6 34.0
Rye ............. 12.8 12.8 9.6 10.8 15.2 9.0 11.5 11.0
Spring grains ....... 116.7 118.2 127.6 159.0 133.1 91.2 125.8 150.0
Wheat ........... 54.3 51.1 56.6 60.5 39.2 29.5 47.4 49.0
Barley 3 .......... 28.3 32.3 35.1 51.7 51.6 32.8 40.7 56.0
Other 4 34.1 34.8 35.9 46.8 42.3 28.9 37.7 45.0
1 Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
2 In addition to winter wheat and rye, winter grains include winter barley.
3Includes mixed grains.
4 Including corn for grains, oats, miscellaneous grains and pulses.
*The EAS crop monitoring system is based on a reduction of potential production as
yield limiting events occur. Crop production potential is projected from short-range weather
forecasts and under the assumption of subsequent optimum weather conditions. Since our last
estimate of mid-June, the potential production capabilities for grain crops in the USSR has
been reduced from 210 to 198 million tons. The current potential yield estimate may be
lowered as the season progresses depending upon deviations from optimum weather conditions
from now until harvest time.
6
SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100140001-3