ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS BRIEF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01056A000100080001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1975
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2002/05/07 : CIA-RDP79-01056A000100080001-0
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Environment Analysis Brief
GCR/EAB 75-1
April 1975
This is the first of a series of periodic
report= on the condition of the Soviet grain
crop based on all-source analysis
meteorological data, and collateral informa-
tion. It was prepared by the Environmental
Analysis Staff of the Office of Geographic
and Cartographic Research. The report was
produced without the aid of computer model-
ing and does not represent finished intelli-
gence.
Status of 1974-75 Soviet Winter Grain Crop
The planned area for the 1974-75 Soviet winter grain crop
was 36.7 million hectares.* Reportedly, 35.5 million hectares or
97 percent of the Plan were sown to winter grains, representing a
decrease of four percent from 1974 when 37 million hectares were
sown.
Rains delayed the fall sowing of winter grains in the Ukraine
and European USSR but the delays were offset by the unusually mild
and prolonged fall. In most areas, the winter grains progressed
well into the tillering stage** of development before winter set in.
The winter crops in portions of the ten westernmost oblasts of the
Ukraine and the southern portion of Belorussia, however, were con-
siderably damaged by severe floods in late November. The floods
affected an area where approximately 10 percent of the country's
winter grain is produced.
approximately 40 to 50 percent of
the crops were either severely damaged or killed.
* Includes 1.8 million hectares estimated for the private sector.
** The stage of growth when shoots form from the underground stem
nodes. It usually occurs 20-30 days after sowing.
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"r teorol oqi cal reports indicate that the snow line anc'
terperatures fluctuated considerably throughout the winter.
"lthouch the crops were extremely vulnerable during this period,
there does not appear to be any widespread winterkill. It
appears that less than the normal 15 to 20 pErcent of the winter
grain has been affected by winterkill. Since most of the winter
grains had progressed well into the tillering stage, the main
tillers should have been quite tall and a significant number of
them killed off. The remaining tillers should assume dominance
,I-hen growth resumes in the spring. Thus production should not
be seriously affected.
One of the rl,ost precarious situations yet facing the Soviets
is that the mild winter has left the winter grains in a relatively
"unhardened" state and therefore one in which they are extremely
vulnerable to possible cold temperatures ahead. Additionally,
excessive moisture, particularly in the Ukraine and southern
Eelorussia, has left these areas very susceptible to diseases
this spring.
Based on observational factors, the present status of Soviet
I,-linter grain implies a 1975 production of 62 to 64 million tons --
approximating last Year's record production of 63.5 million tons.
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