ESTIMATE OF FLOOD LOSS RESULTING FROM THE DESTRUCTION OF THE HIGH ASWAN DAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01009A002300090004-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 23, 1999
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: April 30, 1959
• Content Type: IR

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Copy No. 9
CON HDENTIAL
GEOGRAPHIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
ESTIMATE OF FLOOD LOSS RESULTING FROM THE
DESTRUCTION OF THE HIGH ASWAN DAM
CIA/RR GR 59-9
30 April 1959
DOCUMENT O.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
NFIDENT1AL
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? This material contithis informal-don affecting
the Eational. :ilefenae of the United States
?Ifittti2 the nieentoz of the espionage lam,
Title 18, Secs. 793 and 79k, tbe. trans-
mission or revelation of which in any Trientler
to all 7..ra92.3.thorizet person is prohibited. by Icy.
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ESTIMATE OF FLOOD LOSS RESULTING FROM THE
?.1 DESTRUCTION OF THE HIGH ASWAN DAM
CIA/RR GR 59-9
30 April 1959
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
T1AL
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CONTENTS
Summary . . . 0 b 0 It
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Purpose . . Otte a
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II.
Significance of Flood Figures
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III.
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Progress of the Flood ,
Extent of Anticipated Loss
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A. Populat ,.on . .0 0
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B. Property . . 0 0
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Sources . e
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A. Source References
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B. Coneulttions 0 0
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MAP
Following Page
Progress of Water After Breach of
High Aswan Dan .
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ESTIMATE OF FLOOD LOSS RESULTING FROM THE
DESTRUCTION OF THE HIGH ASVAN DAM
Breaching of the High Aswan Dam would release more water into
the narrow Nile Valley than in any 'flood known to Egypt. Flood waters
would pour across the City of Cairo on the 12th day after breaching
the dam; the crest of the flood at Cairo could be expected on the
18th day; and the flow of the river would not return to normal levels
for more than a month. Except on the Upper Nile near the dam, the
water would rise slowly enough so that loss of life could be held to
a minimum, but more than two-thirds of the population would be displaced
and suffer acutely from exposure and malnutrition. Roads,- railroads,
communications, and industry would sustain severe damage, but the
destruction of irrigation works would have the most far reaching and
lasting consequences. Rehabilitation of people, cities, industry, and
agriculture would assume staggering proportions and extend over decades.
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I. Purpose
This report gives an estimate of the flood damage that would be
a
caused if a single nuclear explosion Were to breach completely the
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High Aswan Dam When it was full of water. It is based on these assumptions:
A. The High Dam could not be completed and filled with water before
1970 and in any given year will be neatest to full capacity (130 billion
cubic meters) between November and April.
B. The population of Egypt is about 32 million.
C. No one in Egypt has been warned of the impending burst.
D. Although plans for the High Aswan Dam include provision for
large outlets to lower the water level in case of war, this provision
is of little significance for the present report because it would take
almost 2 months to reduce the water to safe levels.
II. Significance of Flood Figures
? The manipulation of Nile water for irrigation and flood control is
a highly integrated operation designed to even off the enormous seasonal
fluctuation in flow. A High Aswan Dam must necessarily fit into this
operation.
In early July, water in the reservoir would be at a relatively low
level because, during the preceding 5 months, it had been used for irri-
gation and natural flow had been minimal. The refilling of the resevoir
each year would start with the first floods, which begin in July, and
would continue through January. After January the demand for irrigation
water would probably exceed the natural inflow, and the water level would
again begin to drop. No flood the Nile could produce would completely
fill the reservoir in a single year unless some of the tremendous capacity of
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Uare Victoria were released through Owen Falls Dam. Under average
conditions, at least five years would be required to fill the reservoir
after its completion.
At present, during the flood season, Egypt receives the full natural
flow through wide open sluice gates. At the peak flood period -- normally
in September -- the flow at Aswan rarely exceeds 1 billion cubic meters
per day. In the most disastrous flood on record.-- in 1878 -- the daily
flow at Aswan reached slightly more than 1.1 billion cubic maters. The
figure of 0.9 billion is considered the danger point; beyond this, bank
repair crews are likely to be activated and evacuation warnings issued.
These figures are inconsequential compared with the nearly 6 billion
cubic meters of water that would be released on the first day after a
break Of the High Dam. Even on the twelfth day, with the inundation of
Cairo just beginning, the daily flow from the reservoir would amount to
3.5 billion cubic meters.
III. Progress of the Flood
Progress of the flood downstream from the dam has been estimated
in 2 stages: the beginning of the flood wave and the beginning of
inundation. The beginning of the flood wave would progress down the
channel at a fairly rapid rate, reaching Cairo in approximately 3 days.
The portion of the flood wave that would overflow the present banks of
the river would be much slower and would not reach Cairo for some 12 days.
Twenty-four hours after the break of the dam the Nile Valley would
be inundated for a distance of 120 ranee below the dam. Some 600,000
people would be killed or displaced during this period. By this time
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the initial rise of the river would have extended 270 miles downstream
from the dam.
At the end of the second day the water 430 miles downstream would
begin to rise, and the valley would be under water for a distance of
190 miles below the dam. By the end of the third day the water would
begin to rise at Cairo, 580 miles downstream from the dam; but only
270 miles of the upper valley would be under water.
At the end of the first week of the flood, 580 miles of the Upper
Nile Valley would be inundated, and approximately 4,000,000 people would
be displaced. Flood waters would overflow the present banks of the
river at Cairo on about the 12th day. From this time on the flood would
fan out over the Delta, and would rise at a much slower rate than was
the case in the upper valley.
At Cairo the crest of the flood would be experienced approximately
18 days after the breach of the dam. The flow of the river would be
more than twice that experienced during the usual flood crest at Cairo
and approximately 70 percent of the population of Egypt would be displaced.
The entire Upper Nile Valley, Cairo, and a large proportion of the Delta
would be inundated to a depth of 3 to 15 feet.
Flood conditions would be expected to continue for a period of
45 to 60 days after the breach of the dam. The present banks of the
Nile, situated well above the surrounding countryside, would be washed
out at many points; and, even after the river flow returned to normal,
Nile waters would run in courses outside their normal channels, thus
prolonging the state of disaster.
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IV. Extent of Anticipated Loss
A. Population
Loss of life would be greatest in the Upper Nile Valley near the
dam -- where the bomb buret and the precipitous surge of water would
take a high toll. Farther downstream, many of the villages are situated
at the edge of the valley or on the lower slopes of the valley wall,
thus making escape to high ground relatively easy. With the breaching
and over-riding of the river banks at Cairo, Which are normally 12 to
15 feet above the level of the surrounding land, the city would rapidly
be flooded. A limited number of the residents of Cairo could assemble
in the upper stories of modern buildings or on high ground near the city.
Most residents of the Delta, however, would have to travel many miles to
find refuge. Barring total collapse of communications or the development
of mass hysteria, residents of Cairo and the Delta could be evacuated in
ample time to escape the path of flood waters.
From the standpoint of health, the majority of the population would
suffer most from exposure and lack of food and fuel. Intestinal diseases.--
the typhoid-Paratyphoid group and the dysenteries -- would be a constant
threat; and within a relatively short time malaria could become a primary
concern. Persons coming in contact with the heavily contsminated waters
of the early flood stages might also receive lethal doses of radiation.
With dilution by flow, absorption by soil, and natural decay, the level
of contamination in the river water would be reduced to tolerable levels
after the initial passage of flood waters.
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B. En.__27L____xert
All road, rail, and telephone communication along the Upper Nile
would be destroyed. The destruction of these facilities, which are
generally situated on embankments slightly above the level of the normal
flood, would probably amount to total loss. Many of the buildings in
towns and villages along the Upper Nile would be completely destroyed;
those remaining would sustain severe damsge. As flood waters spread out
over Cairo and the Delta, the physical destruction from the force of the
water would be reduced, but damage to perishables arid equipment would
remain high. The older sections of Cairo and most Delta villages contain
many flimsy structures that would be destroyed by flood waters. Modern
buildings, however, would probably suffer relatively little structural dam-
age. Most of the Egyptian industrial installations would incur severe
damage as a result of submersion and silt deposition. The cost of rehabili-
tating the country's major road and rail network, the communication system,
and the commercial and industrial establishment would reach staggering
proportions.
Almost 98 percent of the agricultural land of Egypt would be directly
in the path of a flood caused by a break of the High Aswan Dam. Such a
flood would destroy the complex irrigation system upon which Egyptian
agriculture depends and which has permitted the Egyptians to produce
two or three crops each year on their intensively cultivated land. In
the Upper Nile, where the valley is narrow, the tremendous initial force
of the water would demolish the barrages, diversion channels, and other
irrigation facilities that have been built up gradually over generations.
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Although the force and abrasive power of the water in the Delta would
be less, they would probably still be strong enough to wreck many of
the irrigation facilities. In addition to the scouring, streambank
erosion, gullying, and trenching caused by the initial onslaught,
deposition of silt and other debris during later stages of the flood
would clog such irrigation channels as remained.
Direct agricultural losses would also result from damage to both
unharvested and stored crops, livestock, pastures, and equipment. Since
about 80 percent of the population depends on agriculture for its liveli-
hood, the effect of these losses on the country's economy would be deva-
stating. To repair the damage to irrigation and flood control facilities,
drain the land, remove excess sediment, rebuild railroads and roads,
collect and distribute seed for planting new crops, replace lost livestock,
and reestablish marketing facilities -- to mention just a few of the
post-flood problems -- would require years of effort and vast amounts of
foreign assistance. Furthermore, rehabilitation would have to face the
added problem of inadequately controlled seasonal flooding.
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SOURCES
A. Source References
1. Hurst, H.R., in collaboration with P. Phillips, R. P. Black, and
Y. N. Morrison. The Nile Basin, Vols. I - VIII and supplementary
volumes, Cairo, Government Press and affiliates, 1931-1950 (A
monumental work; the standard reference series on the Nile Basin.
Volumes I, V, VII, and VIII are textual; Vollrines II, III, IV, and
VI and their supplements are statistical.)
Vol. I, General Description of the Nile and its Tributaries,
Government Press, 1931
Vol. II, Measured Discharges of the Nile and its Tributaries,
Government Press, l9 1O
Supplement, Measured?Dischar es of the Nile and its Tributaries
in the Period 1928-1932, Government Press, Bulaa, 1940
Second Supplement, Measured Dischar es of the Nile and its
Tributariqa_lats_LmlaiLL922:1221, Schindler 's Press, 1940
Vol. III, Ten-Da Mean Mont Ca e Readin s of the Nile and
its Tributaries Government Press, 1933
Supplement, Ten-Day__Mean ar._A_L49yn E_ELMea f
the Nile and its Tributaries to 1732, Government Press,
Bulata, 1935
Second Supplement, Ten-Da Mc.,.n and Monally Mean.janze Readinel
of the Nile and its Tributaries for Years 1
Norniala for the Period l2-i9, .Scalibileres Press, 1939
Third Supplement, Mean Mean and Monthly
of the Nile and its Tributaries for the Year,2_1211:12111_aaq
Normals for the PerioEl.., Whitehead Morris Press01946
Vol. IV, Tpltpay Mean and MonI1211.ApaR2laglaEma_aLthe Nile
and its Tributaries, Government Press, 1933
Supplement, Ten-Da Mean and Month Mean Dischar,es of the
' Nile for the YeaEa_122_72D2 and Normals for the Period
lagzalb Government Press, 1933
Second Supplement,IzpojTer Mean and Monthly
of the Nile and its Tributaries for the Years 11
Normals for the Period 101121,12/, Schindler's Press, 1939
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Third Supplement, TaTaz_liean and Monthly Mean Discharges of
the Nile and its Tributaries for the Years l9381912and
Normals for the221:124_121i=12!-a, Whitehead Morris Press,
17545
Vol. V, The gydrology of the Lake Plateau and Bahr El Jebel,
Schindler's Press, 193
Vol. VI, Itgraly...aadlEnual Rainfall Totals and Number of Rainy.
Days at Stations in and near the Nile Basin for the Period
Ending 19370 Schindler's Press, 1943
Vol. VII, The Future Conservation Of The Nile S.O.P. Press,
1946
Vol. VIII, The.HYdrolo of the Sobat and White Wile and the
Tc_a2ezeak.A...theBlue Nile and the Atbara, Government Press,
1950-
2.* Hurst, H.:E;.'The-Nile London: Whitefriars Press, Ltd., 1952
3. Hurst, H. E. and R. P..Black. Report onHydrO1g.ca Invest.ons
on How the Maximum Volum of the Nile Water Nh Be Made Available
Development in Cairo, Misr Press, 1959
4. United Nations Economic and Social Council.'
Water
Development in Africa, June 1956, Chapter 3, 'The Sudan and Nile
System
5. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Egypt--Sadd
el-Aali Hi Dam Pro eet Annex A; "Technical Description of Sadd
el-Aali Project, 16 December 1955
u. Department of State, Despatches From Cairo and Khartoum, 1954-58
B. Consultations
CIA, Office of Research and Reports, Services Division, Construction
Branch
CIA, Office of Scientific Intelligence, Medicine Division, Basic Science
Branch
CIA; Office of Scientific Intelligence, Medicine Division, Estimates
and Survey Branch
US Army, Corps of Engineers, Army Map Service, Engineer Strategic
Intelligence Division, Military Hydrography Branch
; Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Division of Engineering
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EGYPT
LANDFORMS
PLATEAU
Nearly flat to rolling surface less than 3,600 feet above sea level. West of
Nile Valley 500 to 3,600 feet above sea level in most places; escarpments
up to 1,200 feet above adjacent surfaces; extensive sand.dune areas;
many depressions, some below sea level. East of Nibs Valley and in Sinai
Peninsula 650 to 3,000 feet above sea level in most places; surface dis.
sected by numerous stream valleys, many steep.sided; in places, escarp.
ments less than 700 feet above valley floors and isolated mountains less
than 3,000 feet above the plateau surface.
MOUNTAINS
Complex mountains with numerous peaks and ridges 1,500 to 8,700 feet
above sea level; some mountains flat-topped and massive; in general, sea-
ward slopes precipitous; numerous steep-sided, narrow valleys, in places
3,000 to 4,000 feet below adjacent crests. Red Sea Hills less compact and
rugged than mountains in Sinai Peninsula. Crests of Red Sea Hills 2,300
to 7,200 feet above sea level. Crests of mountains on Sinai Peninsula
1,650 to 8,700 feet above sea level.
NILE VALLEY AND DELTA
Nearly flat surface; in general, elevation decreases from about 600 feet
in south to sea level in north. El Faiyum 145 feet below sea level and areas
in delta 6 feet below sea level; low hills 15 to 30 feet above delta floor in
places. Valley walls south of 28.20'N. mainly escarpments 20010 1,000
feet above the valley floor. Delta interrupted by numerous watercourses;
areas subject to inundation, lakes, and marshes along coast.
COASTAL PLAIN
Nearly flat to rolling surface; less than 650 feet above sea level. East and
west of the Nile Delta coastal plains continuous; segmented by mountains
in places along Gulf of Suez, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aqaba. Extensive areas
of sand dunes between Suez Canal and Egypt.lsrael boundary; scattered
dunes elsewhere. Numerous stream courses in plains along Gulf of Suez,
Red Sea, and Gulf of Aqaba; poorly drained areas in places.
alcavrepLiTanctellutoria1;2.00. feet Intermittent stream
- Canal
?iw Spot elevation in feet
Zn Pass, with elevation in feet
Principal road
Secondary road
........... Trail or desert track
Railroad
- Standard-gage
Narrow.gage
41110. Marsh
Fm55521 Area
rxect subject
Cill=g1=a)
Sabkhet ?
Lake
Perennial stream
*Italicized terms are defined in Glossary, Subsection A, 2
National capital
? - Urban area
Boundarfea:
--- International, demarcated
?x?x? International, undemarcate
- ? Armistice line
GILT KEBIR PLATEAU
The transportation shown oli this man is generalized
for orientation tw000ses only.
The international boondaries shown on this mop do not,
neressoriiy correspond M all cases to the boundotiu
recognized by Me U. S. Government
18957 AMS
GEOGRAPHIC TERMS
again, 'nen Pan. ascent
'ale SPPnC
babr sea. river
bir dug nail, cistern
burg taws, whirl resembling same
debar. debr beigelend, high ground
hill, usually low ?
godsl mounMln, mountain range
she'd dunes
- escarpment
mann POW. anchorage
masrab camel track
negb pass
OP.
wadi. watercourse
OT
w ? ? ?
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