A SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED SOVIET CAPABILITIES IN GEODESY, GRAVIMENTRY, AND CARTOGRAPHY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01009A001600080002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 4, 1999
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 1, 1957
• Content Type: IR

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3GRWHIC INTELLIGENCE RETORT
- A SUMMARY OF EST 1. V SOVIET CAPABILTTIES CN
MODEST, GRAVIMETRY: AND CARTOGRAPHY
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April 1957
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports.
CONFIDENTIAL
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A summARr OF ESTIMATED SOVIET CAPABILTTIES IN
GEODESY, GRAVIMEM: AND CARTOGSAPHY
?FOREWORD
The purpose of this paper isto provide eome indications of currently
estimated Soviet capabilities in geodesy, gravimetry, and cartography as
they would affect accuracy at the target of Soviet-launched long-range
missiles.
THE PROBLEM
Probable error (CEP) at the target of an ICBM involves two distinct
and fundamental geodetic considerations. First is the static geodetic
positioning error in relating the launching and target points, which
generally are in different, widelz separated geodetic systems or datums.
Second are the gravity anomalies at the Earth's surface, which extend into
outer space and affect dynamically the course of the missile during flight.
Unless the magnitude of these anomalies along the projected flight path is
known, the resulting cunulative error over long ranges could be even larger
than the probable geodetic positioning error. The following analysis will
consider these two sources of geodetic probable error at the target in
relation to Soviet capabilities to direct ICBM's against Europe and North
America.
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THE EARTH AS A GEODETIC BODY
If the earth were homogeneous, without its familiar topographic
irregularities and variations in crustal density, the task of the geodesist
today would be boringly simple. The figure of the earth would then be a
mathematical ellipsoid of revolution, and the plumb line at any point
would represent the only true vertical that would have to be considered.
This is not the case. The geoid, or sea-level surface, departs from
such a mathematically ideal figure of revolution by elevations and
depressions amounting to as much as 100 meters. The problem is to
determine the relationship between the Earth's surface, and ellipsoid
of reference., and the geoidal surface.
If this were known the world over, the discrepancies between
different geodetic systems could be eliminated. A goal of long-standing,
then, is the determination of geoidal undulations referred to an agreed
upon ellipsoid of reference. Current efforts in gravity surveying and in
the establishment of connection of large horizontal survey nets of the
earth viii provide the basic data for determining the undulations of the
geoid and geoidal elevations.
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GEODETIC VS. OPERATIONAL ERROR
Before proceeding with this analysis, it is important for us to
distinguish between the total geodetic probable error due to positioning
and gravity considerations and the operational errors expected with
long-range missiles. Operational errors arise from the multiplicity of
responses of the internal components of the missile to the commands of
the computing and guidance systems, as well as in the aerodynamic
behavior of the missile during free flight. At the present state
of missile technology, the operational errors substantially exceed in
magnitude the geodetic errors -- by a factor of 10 or mere. If we assume
a weapons system whose destructive capabilities extend radially 4 or 5
miles from the bursting point, the geodetic problem admittedly becomes
less significant than in the ease of conventional weapons. On the other
bane, if we assume as plausible hypotheses that (1) type-of-war doctrine
will continue to encompass highly selective destruction, (2) operational
errors will in time be reduced to a point where geodetic errors become
significant, and (3) there are weapons systems for targets of lower
magnitude that are ipportant to destroy but too numerous to warrant
the expenditure of a large warhead, then geodetic errors take on
sufficient importance to merit our careful consideration. Parenthetically,
in this connection, it is important to note that geodetic and gravimetric
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surveys are by their nature so involved and long-drawn-out that years may
be required to obtain the necessary survey data for any extensive areas
for improving Iaunch-site and target determination.
1>i k
AND catA I- low c
POR MISSILES
At present the geodetic and cartographic data required for missile
guidance and targeting (as well as for ultra-high-speed aircraft requiring
coordinates to Initial Points and Aim Points) are: (1) coordinates of laundh
pointe and targets referred to a common system, and (2) the undulations of
the geoid, which are obtainable only from gravity anomalies for the entire.
Earth.
ELEMENTS OF A GEODETIC SYSTEM AND THE
PROBLEM OPACKOMI/INATION
To make thee two requirements understandable to a mixed audience,
it ie necessary to describe briefly the nature of the first requirement
and the activities necessary to achieve the second. This viii be followed
by a, summary of Soviet capabilities in general and with respect to the
stated problem be particular.
A geodetic system consists of a network of points derived by
triangulation and computed on a selected reference ellipsoid from
a selected point, of .origin. The coordinated and correlated relationship
between the triangulation points remains true only so long as they are
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computed from the same initial quantities, i.e. latitude, longitude, and
azimuth, plus the equatorial radius and flattening of a given ellipsoid.
A change in the value of any of these will change the datum and the
coordinates of points on that datum. Over the past 300 years, many
national geodetic systems have been developed, each with its own initial
point based upon some selected ellipsoid. Consequently, positions
referred to different datums are not directly comparable since we are
still uncertain regarding the relative orientations of these datums and
the distances between their initial points. /n some cases, discrepancies
between common points of adjoining countries have amounted to hundreds of
meters on the Earth's surface, even to several kilometers.
Since World War II, real progress has been achieved in reducing the
number of different datums by integrating small systems with a major
continental bystam. N:Haes of this are the European Datum, the North
American Datum, and the Soviet Datum. These datums, however, are
restricted to land areas of the Earth. With the development of long-range
intercontinental missiles as well as ultra-high-speed manned aircraft, the
intercontinental connection of datums into a World Geodetic System becomes
increasingly urgent. When such a system is established, the computed
geographic coordinates of points on any existing datum will be comparable
without significant discrepancies. Moreover, if the gravimetric approach
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is used, it will make possible reasonably accurate mapping at the scale
of 1:100,000 (and consequently geodetic coordinate determination) of
unmapped areas in which launch or target sites may be required. Including
the gravimetric method, there are three basic ways in which intercontinental
connections of datums can be made:
The
completion of a world gravity survey would also provide basic information
for the study of the effects of the gravity anomalies on a missile in
flight.
SOVIET GEODETIC AND GRAVIMETRIC PRODUCTION
AND RESEARCH RESOURCE
Before taking up Soviet capabilities in the specific fields and
problems just discussed, it is necessary to make some general remarks
on the Soviet surveying and mapping organization, its research facilities,
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and its collection of foreign materials and data. Following this, we can
examine quantitative estimates of Soviet capabilities.
The Soviets, building on a foundation of over a century of Czarist
geodetic and cartographic development, have established a modern organi-
zation and a corps of scientific and technical personnel sufficiently
competent in all aspects of geodesy and map production to provide highly
qualified support in the solution of the basic geodetic and cartographic
problems connected with missile guidance and target positioning.
Early recognition by Lenin of the basic importance of geodesy and
cartography to Soviet economic growth and industrialization led to a
geodetic and cartographic development unprecedented in any recent
history of surveying and mapping. Over the years huge capital in-
vestments have been made in surveying and mapping ulth the result
that the Soviet Union may now be Considered topographically mapped
at 1:100,000.
Basic surveying and mapping of the country as a whole is centralized
in the Chief Administration of Geodesy and Cartography (COW, which is
now attached to the Ministry of the Interior. GCGX: works in close concert
with the Military Topographic Administration (VTU) of the Army General
Staff. Little is known of the nature of this collaboration and its
relation to policy formation.
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Relations between WOK and the services of the Ministries of Defense
are known to be regulated by a special statute, the text of which has not
yet been obtained. It is also known that basic geodetic surveying of the
first three orders is conducted by =Kt the Army, and the Navy. Of the
military services, the Army appears dominant, since it IS the only service
that has been identified as having right to serve as co-author with WOK
in the issuance of basic geodetic and cartographic specifications and
regulations. It is believed that top-level coordination of policy
occurs at the ministerial level in a group consisting of both civilian
and military planners.
OUGK is an integrated organization that, in addition to the
conventional technical and administrative units, includes two policy
bodies -- a Collegium for broad program planning and research and
another body for the coordination of interagency mapping projects
and activities. The second group includes central archives for the
custody of all data, a central publishing organization for geodetic
and cartographic literature, a central research institute, a factory
for the production of geodetic and mapping instruments, 12 photogrammetric
and geodetic establishments, and 12 cartographic plants. The Military
Topographic Administration includes a Military Topographic Service; a
faculty for advanced geodesy at the Military-Engineering AcadeMY
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Knybydheva (VIA); a scientific research institute; and, according to a
prewar source, 12 topographic units, 7 geodetic units, 3 aerial photographic
units, 12 geodetic and cartographic units, and a field training and testing
camp.
Training in aurveying and mapping, whiCh dates back to 1779, has been
particularly emphasized under the Soviet regime. Estimated conservatively,
the Soviet Union currently has some 6,000 engineers and 10,000 technicians
trained in geodesy and cartography. The ranks of GU= (including its
predecessor agencies) have increased from 469 in /924 to 5,058 in 1940
and to an estimated 9,000 in 1953.
Training of engineers in geodesy is on a very hub level, in both
theoretical and practical aspects; and Soviet instruction and facilities
compare very favorably with the best in Western Europe. Advanced scientific
education and technical training is provided by the largeot system of
special educational institutions in the world. Civil and military
personnel have independent training facilities. At the university
level, advanced civilian training in Which one-third of a 5-year course
Is devoted to higber geodesy is given in two institutes, which together
are conferring engineering degrees at the rate of about 400 per year.
Graduate training is given not only at theue two institutes but 4100
at several scientific reaearch institutions. Between 1937 and 1955,
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forty-tvo Doctorates of Technical Sciences in geodesy were granted. In
19,5 alone, no fever than 40 Candidate's (i.e., Master's) dissertations
and one Doctorate were presented by higher institutions of learning.
With geodetic training of this depth, it can readily be seen that the
Soviets already have a formidable reservoir of geodesists available to
staff operational missile units.
SOVIET CONCEPT OF RESEARCH ON THE EARTH
AS A WHOLE
An estimate of Soviet research in geodesy and gravity would be
purposeless if it did not underscore the comprehensive nature of Soviet
research on the Earth as a unit body -- its motion, interior, crust,
oceans, and atmosphere. Soviet sources emphasize the integrated nature
of this broad effort and, indeed, stress that one of the objectives of
geodetic research is its work on a General Terrestrial Ellipsoid, to
which seismic and astronomic research is joined. Thus, one finds an
amazing interweaving of geodetic research in the curricula of astronomic
and geophysical institutes and some inclusion of geophysical and astronomic
studies in the programs of geodetic institutes. Technical geodetic research
is centered in the GUM organizations, which include the Central Scientific
Research Institute of Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography; and the
Aero-Geodetic Enterprises. Geodetic research is also conducted at the
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Mbscow and Novosibirsk Institutes of Engineers of Geodesy, Photogrammetry
and Cartography. Extensive basic research on problems of geodetic astronomy
is in progress at Pulkovo and other observatories, at the dozen tlee-service
stations now in the Central Research Institute of Radio Measurements, and
at four observatories comprisiag the Soviet Latitude Service, which is
designed to supplement the work of the International Latitude Service.
Some of the Objectives of this extensive effort are related to the study
of the variation of latitude, the variable rate of rotation of the earth,
and the compilation of star catalogues.
Extensive research on gravity problems is conducted at more than a
dozen apply staffed research institutes and observatories. Although many
of the problems are related primarily to geophysical prospecting, to
determiniag the characteristics of the Earth's crust, and to refinement of
instruments and methods, it must be recognized that all these are of great
benefit to the solution of basic geodetic problems. The number of people
engaged in research is not known, but some indication is provided by an
estimate that the personnel of the former Geophysical Institute of the
Academy of Science, USSR -- now reorganized into three institutes -- owe
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numbered over 1,060.
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SOVIET ACTIMS1 GOODESYCARLVQRAPUY
_AND
Against this brief background of organization and research resources
available to the USSR, we mew now examine Soviet achievement in geodesy
end its relationahip to Soviet positioning capabilities -- in other words,
to determine the estimated error in displacement between a launch site in
the Soviet Union and a target outside the USSR.
The first requisite in the achievement of a minimum geodetic target
error is a.vell-distributed, bleN;y accurate horizontal network to which
launch sites can be referenced and which can be tied to other geodetic
systems. The Soviet triangulation network was explicitly devieed not
only to serve as a primary framework of points for topographic surveying
and mapping but also to serve the needs of higher geodesy for the study
of the size and shape of the Earth.
The Soviets inherited from the Czarist regime an obsolete horizontal
network covering about 10 percent of the country. Nov triangulation was
started in the European USSR about 1923, and a new comprehensive program
was developed in 1928. By 1936 the triangulation system, based on two
datums, extended from the western to the eastern borders of the USSR.
This triangulation network, however, was dooputed on the Deese' Ellipsoid,
which was found unsuitable for the vast extent of the USSR. The computation
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of a new ellipsoid vas completed by Krasovskly in 1940, and it van adopted
as the reference ellipsoid in 1946. This ellipsoid is claimed by the Soviets
to be not only the most suitable for the USSR but also the best for the whole
world. (The US Army Nap Service, however, bas stated that its own newly
computed ellipsoid is superior to the Xrasovskiy.) A new readjustment of
the first-order horizontal control occurred during the period /942-45.
Following this readjustment the Soviets found displacements in positions
amounting to 2,500 feet in latitude and 100 feet in longitude in western
USSR, and to 3,000 feet in latitude and -1,200 feet in longitude in Siberia.
In order to raise the standards and quality of the continually expanding
triangulation network, more rigorous field specifications were devised in
1948, and were adopted in 1954.
In this connection, it is necessary to emphasize an enigmatic Soviet
drive, verging on the obsessive, to attain refinements in geodesy that far
exceed the practical requirements of topographic and engineering problems.
We cannot claim as yet that these refinements are motivated by problems of
missile guidance; but we must recognize that continued refinements in
geodesy, coMbined with geodetic aravimetry and seismology, will eventually
lead to continued improvements in determining the dimensions and shape of
the Earth and departures of the geoid from the ellipsoid of reference.
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Aside from these added refinements, hewever, the new program will be
expanded into areas not covered at all or inadequately covered -- that is,
primarily into the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions north of the 65th parallel.
Even without these extensions the Soviets have a first-order triangulation
network that covers two-thirds of the country from Mama to Vladivostok,
excluding only the area east of the Urals and north of the 65th parallel.
According to standards bf accuracy outlined in their specifications,
the Soviet geodetic standards are comparable to those of Western Europe
and America. Postwar catalogues are not available to us for analysis and
Checking. It is reasonable to assume, however, that the Soviets can attain
an order of positioning accuracy of 1:100,000 for long arcs. If a Soviet
tie has been effected with North America, then launching sites established
several hundred miles inland from the Bering Strait could cover every part
of the US with missiles having a 5,000-mile range. The launching site,
tied over a short distance to the Soviet triangulation, could be referenced
to the North American Datum. By this method the Soviets might expect to
achieve a CEP of 300-500 feet against US targets.
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Because of the aborter range, Soviet geodetic targeting errors will
be smaller for Central and Western Europe. Since 1952 the USSR has been
forcing the extension of its own geodetic datum and topographicmapping
system upon the European Soviet Satellites. This will unify the independent
datums and eliminate discrepancies between common points, which in some
instances have amounted to over 650 feet. The major part of the field
work and mathematical readjustment is scheduled for completion by 1957.
Large-scale-map production, at 1:25,000, is scheduled for completion by
1959.60 and has already been completed for East Germany. Recent reports
Indicate that the Soviets themselves are determining the geodetic
coordinates of some basic control points in the overall program -- probably
to ensure satisfaction with the end results and possibly because of
reluctance to entrust the fundamental geodetic data and methods of the
Soviet system to Satellite geodesiste.
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Intercontinental geodetic connections by celestial triangelation
employing solar eclipses, star occultations, and moonirsition camera
methods are currently being tested by the US. There is some suggestion
that the Soviets also may be observing solar eclipses to Obtain
intercontinental ties. The 1947 eclipse in Brazil -vas observed by a
Soviet party, which maintained off-limits restrictions for its inner
observation area. The Soviets are also plAnnleg to Observe the 1958
eclipse in the South Pacific from the Tokelau Islands. The path of
totality continues to the western coast of South America. If a Soviet
observation program is also undertaken in South America, it would provide
strong evidence that an intercontinental tie is contemplated. If this
were the case and if the complete results of the programs of the Western
World were to be freely provided, it would be quite probable that by
1965 the Soviets could at least narrow their intercontinental positioning
error to the order of 500 feet for any launching point in the USSR.
This summary of Soviet technical capabilities for effecting
intercontinental connections of US and European datums would be
incomplete if no mention were made of the significant contribution to
Soviet capabilities resulting from the open availability of geodetic
catalogues and large-scale topographic mops of nearly all countries
outside the Soviet Bloc.'Furthermore, a corresponding advantage in
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positioning is denied to the Western World by the Soviet policy of effectively
vithholding-comparable postwar catalogues and maps of the USSR and the post-1952
reoulte of the East European readjustment and remapping programs.
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WORLD GEODETIC STUZEN
The estimates of Soviet positioning by means of the intercontinental
connections of datums just described are limited to the positioning of
targets within the areas covered by a given triangulation network. Such
methods would be of no avail, however, for the great bulk of continental
areas not covered by triangulation or for isolated areas with email
unconnected triangulation systems. The gravimetric method offers a means
of converting diverse geodetic datums into a World Geodetic System, and
at the same time offers a means for the rapid establishment of geodetic
control in unsurveyed areas without the necessity of a time-consuming
geodetic survey. Such a control, although it would not be of first-order
accuracy, would be adeqpate for mapping at scales of 1:100,000. For its
most effective application, the method requires a gravity survey of the
entire Earth. Once such data are processed into a world map of gravity
anomalies -- showing lines of equal departure Of observed gravity from
normal gravity values for each latitude -- the results would also be
extremely valuable to the second or dynamic problem: the determination
of the effect of gravity anomalies upon long-range missiles, particularly
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aver the extended areas of free flight. World gravity surveys are being
undertaken by both the US and the Soviet Union. One could view this as
Q kind of race, with the odds favoring the Soviets someWhat.
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Achievement of this Ideal, however, is far from realization. Gravity
data are notably lacking (for both the US and USSR) over the oceans, and
to a lesser degree over the land areas of the Southern Hemisphere. Almost
no horizontal cOntrol has been established for the Antarctic Continent,
except for scattered Observations around the coast. In the land areas
of the Northern Hemisphere the US is at a decided disadvantage vis-a-vis
the USSR because the latter, on the one hand, has undertaken a most
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comprehensive gravity survey program and, on the other hand, has withheld
these data from the Western World.
In 1932 the USSR began a systematic gravity survey to provide
coverage with a minimum density of 1 point per 1,000 sgekms. of area
for the entire country. This survey was probably initiated not only
for geodetic purposes but also for its more immediate contribution to
the geophysical prospecting program for minerals and fuels. By 1938?
over 10,000 determinations had been completed, and by 1947 the number
had increased to 15,000. It is estimated that this minimum program of
Observations has already been coppleted. The total number of observations
is much greater than the prescribed minimum because geophysical prospectors
are required to make their observations adaptable to the national gravity
net; this is not the ease in Western countries. The number of gravity
observations contributed by Soviet geophysical prospectors is now reckoned
by one authority to amount to "hundreds of thousands."
Included in this vast total are gravity values collected in the
Arctic sin since the 1930s, which have not been disseminated. The
US has no postwar Soviet gravity catalogues. The most recent Soviet
catalogue in US possession is an unofficial 1935 compilation containing
6p000 Observation points, most of which were taken from a variety of
uncoordinated surveys. For all practical purposes the US holds only a
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small fraction of the Soviet data for the largest contiguous land mass in
the world, especially if we include China, which is also withholding its
data. In contrast to this denial, the USSR has been systematically
collecting the freely available (noncommercial) gravity data for the
rest of the world. In 1951 the Soviet foreign catalogue contained over
25,000 determinations, as well as gravimetric maps. It was not without
reason that one source proudly claimed that the Soviets hold a larger
coverage of gravity data than the rest of the world combined. And it
is not without some significance that, when the Soviets announced their
intention to participate in the IG!, they called for an expansion in
gravimetric and seismic Observations. However, the Soviets are neither
expanding their program (except in the Antarctic) nor willing to share
their past survey data.
The Soviet IGY program is limited to two Earth-tide stations to
collect data showing minute gravity variations in time, which have no
military value whatsoever. When the Soviets were specifically confronted
with their exclusion of gravity data from a recent declassification of
other Arctic geophysical data, they pointed out that gravity data are
still considered strategic and are known to be of interest to the US
Air Force. Underscoring the attempt to push the collection of gravity
data beyond the borders of the USSR, the Soviets are planning an
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expane ion of their worldwide connections under the IGY. As evidence of
this, the Soviets (1) are undertaking an extension of their highly
developed gravity network from the North Pole via Novaya Zemlya, Saletharl,
Novosibirsk, Germ, and Kabul to New Delhi; (2) are undertaking a survey
from New Delhi via Saigon, Shanghai, Khaborovshe and Mai to the North
Poles and (3) have indicated a keen interest in two drift stations to be
launched by the US and have offered to exchange data on condition that
US gravity instruments be made available. This exchange would provide
the Soviets with coverage of the Western Hemisphere Sector of the Arctic
Basin and, coupled with the freely disseminated Canadian gravity data,
would go a long way toward tying North American gravity Observations to
Euraeian.
At a 1956 IN meeting, the Soviets showed a keen interest in submarine
gravity data obtained by the US and used the fact that the US data were
not published as evidence that the US considers these data strategic.
They argue, therefore, that the US cannot accuse the USSR of being the
only country that withholds such data. More recently, Soviet gravimetriets
manifested exceptional interest in arranging for a release of gravity data
obtained by American oil companies but generally unpublished because they
constitute valuable commercial secrets. From all evidence, it is readily
apparent that the Soviets are making good progress in their efforts to
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establish their own World Gravity Symbem and at the same time to make it
an exclusively Soviet system by denying data to the rest of the world.
That such a World Gravity System would be of value not only to the
geodetic problem of missile guidance but also to the dynamic problem has
been indicated. Currently, the greatest need is for values of the absolute
deflection of the vertical at launch points. The next most urgent need is
for gravity anomalies over likely areas of free flight. If the theoretical
findings are borne out by future test-flight operations, we can assume
that the long-standing Soviet interest in gravity will have yielded an
unexpected bonus through its value to missile guidance. That there is
some connection between the keen current Soviet interest in a world
gravity program and missile guidance is further suggested by known Soviet
studies on the variation of gravity with altitude. One of these studies
concludes that it is quite possible to determine mean values of vertical
gradients for small areas by using planes and that "the construction of
apparatus at the present level of Soviet science and industry does not
present especial difficulty." If any such apparatus were developed, it
would represent a major break-through that could have far-reaching effects
in reducing the error due to the dynamic factor. So far as we know, no
comparable studies directed toward the development of such an instrument
have been made elsewhere.
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