THE SOVIET GRAIN BALANCE 1960-73

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00928A000200060002-6
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• Document Page Count: 39
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 10, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Research Aid
The Soviet Grain Balanct
1960-73
",twxjg% 'k 00, '1 V 01
Ut A (ER) 75-68
rSeptember 1975
Jd
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officials. The format, coverage, and contents of the publi-
cation are designed to meet the specific requirements of
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The Soviet Grain Balance, 1960 - 73
September 1975
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CONTENTS
Page
.........................................................
Summary 1
Discussion ........................................................... 3
Introduction ........................................................
The Balance Method ............................................... 4
................................................
The Supply of Grain
Production .......................................................
Imports ........ ................................................. 7
9
Demand for Grain ................................................
................................................
Food
.........................................
Industrial Raw Materials 11
..........................................................
Seed 12
13
Exports ..........................................................
.................................................
Livestock Feed 13
Losses and Additions to Stock .............................. . . ...... 15
Comparisons with Other Estimates and the Need for Further Research .... 20
APPENDIXES
Page
A. The Grain Balance - Sources and Methodology ...................... 23
B. Derivation of Grain Fed to Livestock ................................ 33
TABLES
Page
.........................................
1. USSR: Grain Production 7
2. USSR: Grain Imports in Selected Years ................... . . . . . 8
9
3. USSR: Grain Used for Food in Selected Years .................. . . .
4. USSR: Grain Used for Industrial Raw Material in Selected Years ...... 12
5. USSR: Grain Used for Seed in Selected Years 13
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6. USSR: Grain Exports in Selected Years .......... Page
..
14
7. USSR: Grain Used for Livestock Feed ............................
14
8. USSR: Derivation of Changes in Stocks and Losses ..................
16
9. USSR: Estimated Changes in End-of-Year Stocks, Based on Selected
Loss Rates .....................................
10. USSR: Estimated End-of-Year Stock Positions, Based on Selected Loss
Rates and a 100-Million-Metric-Ton Stock Level at the End of 1972 .. 18
11. USSR: Grain Allocations in Selected Years According to CIA and
USDA Estimates ................................................ 22
12. USSR: Losses Plus Changes in Stock According to CIA and USDA
Estimates ............................................
FIGURES
Figure 1. USSR: Grain Statistics Page
..................... .
6
Figure 2. USSR: Major Grain Allocations .............
Figure 3. Cartoon .................................................... 19
Figure 4. USSR: Estimated End-of-Year Stock Positions Based on Selected
Loss Rates and a 100-Million-Metric-Ton Stock Level at the
End of 1972 ............................................ 21
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THE SOVIET GRAIN BALANCE, 1960-73
SUMMARY
The more than 75% increase in Soviet grain production since l19 0 has been
overmatched by the rising demand for grain, particularly for The result has been an unprecedented level of grain imports in recent years.
Close examination of Soviet data permits a partial reconstruction of a grain
balance-which draws together data during on domestic production, net imports, and
major components of consumption
Sufficient data exist to make reliable estimates of Soviet use of grain for
seed, food, industrial products, and net imports. Data on which to base estimates
of grain fed to livestock-about two-fifths of all grain available in 1973-are
much less satisfactory; these estimates are far less accurate than estimates for
other uses.
The reconstruction of Soviet grain balances helps shed light on the size of
Soviet grain stocks-a carefully guarded state secret. Becausesuffernd certainties
about (1) estimates of livestock feed, (2) the annual losse through
difference between official claims and actual usable output, and (3) the
establishment of benchmark data, the estimates of stock levels can only be
illustrative. Nevertheless, the trend in grain stocks contained in the grain balance
in this -report appears reasonably consistent with Soviet import decisions in
1960-73.
NOTE: This report was prepared by the office of Economic Research, Central Intelligence
Agency. Questions on the rep rth hound, be addres ed to the Director of Economic Research,
Central Intelligence Agency,
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USSR: Summary of Supply and Consumption of Grain 1
Million Metric Tons
1960 .1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
Supply ............ 126.6 131.6 140.7 111.2 161.1 128.2 179.6 150.8 171.7 163.7 189.7 185.2 183.9 247.0
Domestic produc-
tion z . 125
6
......... Imports ......... 1.0
Consumption ...... 125,0
Seed ............ 24.2
Food............ 48.1
Industrial use.... 2.2
Exports ..... . . . . 6.9
Livestock feed... 43.7
Changes in stocks 3. 1.2
.
25.5
-2.0 46.8
Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. Data are for the year beginning 1 January
The official measure of grain output is determined in terms of "bunker weight"-i.e. as it comes from the combine. To the
extent that the grain contains trash, dirt, weed seeds, and moisture in excess of standard norms, and subsequent losses occur
in transportation and storage, the official series exaggerates the quantity of usable grain. Indirect evidence su
ges that
exaggeration is substantial and varies over time. Part of this exaggeration is reflected in the line for "livestock geedts and this
3 The officially reported series for domestic production plus imports minus consumption. part
- 0.1 2.4 1.4 3.0 4.1
133.7 138.2 127.3 119.8 1374
26.9 25.3 24
6 49.1 49.6 48.0 48.5 50.2 v
7.9 8.3 6.7 4.0 5.1 2.4 2.5 2 8 o 9
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DISCUSSION
Introduction
1. Although the USSR reports grain production, it does not release informa-
tion on the main uses of grain, the size of stocks, or the amounts lost in transporta-
tion and storage. This report is intended to fill some of the gaps in Western
knowledge of the production and allocation of Soviet grain for 1960-73.1 It (1)
sets out those elements of a Soviet grain balance that can be estimated with
varying degrees of certainty; (2) describes the pitfalls in using official figures
for production and the difficulties of estimating grain fed to livestock; and (3)
assesses the implications of the partial balances for estimates of grain stocks. For
the first time, systematic (although incomplete) balances are presented for total
grain and for each type of grain for each year since 1960.
2. To understand Soviet policy regarding grain production, distribution,
and trade, it is desirable to see conditions "through Soviet eyes"-that is, to
use the statistics Soviet policymakers use. Adjusting Soviet grain statistics to
make them comparable with US concepts distorts the supply and demand
relationships to a degree and introduces elements that do not necessarily im-
prove grain accounting accuracy. In the past, for example, "gross" grain pro-
duction has frequently been discounted by 10%-25% in order to derive "net"
production and to account for excess moisture, weeds, trash, and other nongrain
matter gathered during the harvest and included in Soviet production data. But
these discounts rested on slender evidence as far as year-to-year changes are
concerned. Furthermore, this report uses Soviet data solely to calculate balances.
It does not attempt to make international comparisons or to address questions such
as feeding efficiency that would require the reconciliation of Soviet production
data with the data of other countries.
3. It is hoped that the estimates contained in this report will be reviewed
critically by other students of Soviet agriculture. An improved knowledge of
the grain balances is essential for the interpretation of Soviet domestic economic
and foreign trade policies.
1 In the pioneering balance work, Naum Jasny presented estimates for the period up to
the end of World War II (The Socialized Agriculture of the USSR, Stanford University Press,
1949). Nancy Nimitz then presented some grain balances in a study appearing in 1964
(RM 4127-PR, RAND Corporation, Soviet Government Grain Procaurement.s, Dispositions, and
Stocks, 1940, 1945-63, November 1964). She dealt only with the allocation of grain purchased
by the state, however-about 30% to 45% of total production. Subsequently, the US Depart-
ment of Agriculture estimated the uses of "food grains" in 1958-64 and the uses of total grain,
feed grain, and wheat in 1960-74, but the derivation of these estimates was not presented in
detail. (Selected food grain-wheat and rye-estimates are presented in USDA, Economic Re-
search Service, ERS Foreign 135, Soviet Grain Imports, Washington, D.C., 1965. For total grain
balances, 1960-72, see USDA, Economic Research Service, ERS Foreign 355, Livestock Feed
Balances for the USSR, Washington, D.C., no date. Wheat and feed grain balances are
regularly presented in USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Foreign Agriculture Circular-
Grains.)
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The Balance Method
4. In the traditional procedure for analyzing grain balances, total available
grain in a given year is first determined by summing estimates of (1) domestic
production, (2) imports, and (3) stocks at the beginning of the year. From
this total, estimates of grain used for seed, food, industrial raw materials, exports,
and livestock feed or lost for various reasons are subtracted. The residual repre-
sents the stocks at the end of the year.
Stocks at the beginning
of the year + domestic
production + imports
TRADITIONAL GRAIN BALANCE
Seed + food + industrial raw
materials + exports + livestock
feed + losses
Stocks at
end of year
5. Modified grain balances are derived in this report for nine specific grains
and a small residual "other grains" category.2 The modifications are a concession
to Soviet secrecy.
GRAIN BALANCE USED IN THIS REPORT
SUPPLY DEMAND
Domestic production
+ imports
Seed + food + industrial raw
materials + exports + livestock
feed
Change in stocks during
year + "losses"
? Soviet grain stocks are a state secret.3 Indeed, the major reason for
undertaking the balance work is to shed some light on these stocks.
? A portion of the excess moisture and waste and all of the grain lost in
transit, in use, and in storage cannot be estimated directly. (As a short-
hand method of expression, these elements are referred to as "losses" in
this report .4) Therefore, we compare supply, excluding initial stocks,
with demand, excluding losses in each year, to obtain an estimate of
annual changes in stocks for all grain and annual losses from production
and stocks.
? Because the grain fed to livestock cannot be allocated by type,5 the
residuals listed in the balances for individual grains include grain fed,
as well as grain lost and stock changes.
The Supply of Grain
Production
6. Grain production in the USSR increased more than 75% between 1960
and 1973 as a result of the introduction of better seed varieties, the improve-
2 The balances are presented and explained in Appendix A.
3 Ugolovniye kodeks RSFSR, Moscow, 1957, p. 143-145.
4 These losses exclude the apparently substantial quantity of excess moisture and waste
contained in livestock feed, see footnote 23.
5 For estimates of total grain fed to livestock, see Appendix B.
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ment in planting and harvesting practices, the use of' mo
machinery, and a 10% increase in sown area (see Figure 1). The overall trend
in output has been obscured by large year-to-year changes.s For example, the
crop in 1973, a year of favorable weather, was one-third larger than the drought-
stricken 1972 crop. Since 1960 the USSR has experienced 5 years of nearly
normal weather, 4 years of above-normal weather, and 5 years of subnormal
weather.? During those 14 years there were 5 bumper crops and 6 crops
that could not cover domestic requirements.
7. Since 1960, as production has climbed, its composition has changed,
as follows:
Percentage Distribution of Grain Production 1
1980
1965
1970
1973
Total .............................. 100
100
9
22
100
30
7
100
27.0
Spring wheat ....................
36.5
.
.
8
2
1
22
...............
ter wheat
Wi
14.8
26.3
.
2
.
...
n
4
13
0
7
4.8
Rye
Buckwheat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....
13.1
0.5
.
0.8
5
0
.
0.6
0
7
0.6
0.8
0.2
.
.
Rice
7.8
6.8
5.0
5.9
Corn
7
8
7.9
Oats
. . .. .
.... .
9.6
5.1
.
4
20
7
24
Barley
...
.
12.7
16.8
1
8
.
1
1
.
2.0
Millet
.
...................... .
2.5
.
5
5
.
1
4
3.8
Pulses
2.2
.
.
0
1
1
0
Other ..........................
0.2
0.2
.
.
1 Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
8. In particular, feed grains have received far greater attention.8
? Barley, whose share of total production rose from 13% in 1960 to 25%
in 1973, has been stressed because it generally has higher yields than
other spring grains.
? Oats are making a comeback and now provide 8% of total grain pro-
duction. The cultivation of oats fell into disfavor on Soviet farms in the
early 1960s, primarily in response to unfavorable prices .9 Since 1963 the
acreage sown to oats has doubled; production in 1973 was nearly half
again larger than in 1960.
s Soviet grain production is handicapped by a short growing season and by insufficient
moisture in many areas. Grain requires a 100-day growing season, which generally is not
present north of about 550N. The 10-inch annual rainfall minimum required for grain limits
the southern extension of grain cultivation. The Soviet grain belt lies mainly between 45?N
and 55?N. West of the Urals the average annual precipitation ranges from 20 to 25 inches,
ample for grain growing needs. But rainfall varies greatly from year to year, and seasonal
distribution is unfavorable. Peak monthly rainfall is in July or August-too late to benefit
the maturing grain. Precipitation decreases southward and eastward and is lowest in the
torthe rential tof precipita-
desert
Kazakhan andc into Central Asia. Even in years of adequate south
tion may greatly damage the crop.
7 "Above-normal" weather refers to conditions where crop loss caused by summer drought
and cold winter temperatures is less than the long-run average. "Subnormal" weather produces
greater-than-average losses.
R Small quantities of each feed grain are also used for food.
0In the early 1960s, oats were priced at two-thirds or less of the price of wheat, so
those ld substitute,
rove and farms s prthat ice reamore oats did. By 1967, however, the price
Ekonomika zernogo relationships
pet al.,
A. E. Kam.,
edrs., Moscow, 1970, p. 188, 196).
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Million Hectares
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 197310
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
USSR: Grain Statistics
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973uu
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t e ,
? Although corn does not thrive in the hays china e of
schev launched a campaign in the mid-1950s to increase corn production.
His removal led to a drastic curtailment in acreage. Since the mid-1960s,
nonetheless, production has gradually made a comeback as the need for
high-energy feed has increased.
? Pulses-peas and beans-are included in Soviet grain statistics10 and
account for about 4% of total grain production. These crops provide
food and feed rich in protein.
9. Traditional breadgrains still account for nearly three-fifths of production:
? Wheat comprises one-half of total grain production, divided into lower
yielding spring wheat and higher yielding winter wheat (see Table 1).
Although wheat is used primarily for food, as much as one-third of the
total wheat crop has been used as livestock feed in recent years.
? Rye remains important because of the Russian fondness for rye breads.
? Rice output, although less than 1% of total grain production, has been
increasing at 19% per year since 1960 and now almost meets domestic
requirements.
? Millet and buckwheat, while accounting for 2% and 1% of total produc-
tion, are extensively used as porridge.
Million Metric Tons
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
Total ............. 125.6 130.9 140.1 107.4 152.0 121.1 171.0 147.7 169.3 162.3 186.8 181.2 168.2 222.5
Spring wheat .... 46.1 37.3 40.4 28.5 48.2 27.8 60.2 42.3 58.7 52.7 57.5 51.1 56.6 60.0
Winter wheat.... 18.2 29.2 30.4 21.2 26.2 31.9 40.3 35.1 34.6 27.2 42.2 47.8 29.4 49.2
Rye ............ 16.4 16.7 17.0 11.9 13.6 16.2 13.1 13.0 14.1 10.9 13.0 12.8 9.6 10.8
Buckwheat ...... 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.3
Rice ............ 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8
Corn............ 9.8 17.1 15.5 11.1 13.8 8.0 8.4 9.2 8.8 12.0 9.4 8.6 9.8 13.2
Oats ............ 12.0 8.9 5.7 4.0 5.5 6.2 9.2 11.6 11.6 13.1
314 4.2 34.6 36.8 55.0
Barley .......... 16.0 13.3 19.5 19.8 28.6 20.3 27.9 24.7 28.9
Millet........... 3.2 2.9 2.8 1.8 3.5 2.2 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 4.4
Pulses........... 2.7 4.0 7.6 8.0 11.1 6.7 7.0 6.6 7.2 7.8 07.6 6.9 7.1 8.4
0.2 0.2 0.3
Other ........... 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
See Appendix Tables A-2 through A-1 1; with the exception of spring and winter wheat, which are from USSR, Central Statistical stvo Administration (hereafter TsSU), Sel'skoye khozyaystvo, Moscow, 1970, p. 167; TTsSU, sSU, aro v tse ho va1973 god S, Moscow,
godu, Moscow, 1973, p. 316, 326-27 (hereafter Narkhoz and the appropriate year);
1974, p. 108-109. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
Imports
10. Since 1960, Soviet imports of grain and grain products have ranged
from 600,000 metric tons in 1962 to more than 24 million tons in 1973. In 8
10 There is one more officially reported category-"other grains." Although the precise
composition of this category (accounting for 0% to 0.2% of total grain each year) is unknown,
it includes spelt (a primitive type of wheat producing only two kernels), sores' kolosovykh
(mixed grain, whose composition is unknown), and sorghum. The area sown to these three
"types" of grain in 1973 was 234,000 hectares, 0.18% of total grain area. Of this area, spelt
occupied 4%, mixed grain 50%, and sorghum 46% (TsSU, Po.sevnyye ploshchadi vo vsekh
kategoriyakh khozyaystu Po soyuznym respublikam v 1973 godu, Moscow, 1973, p. 7, 29, 43.)
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years, imports exceeded 3 million tons (see Table 2). During 1 mi i n
tons of grain were imported, nearly the combined total for the previous 12 years.
Demand for Grain
11. The demand for grain has grown rapidly in the USSR as a result of a
moderate increase in its use for food and a sharp expansion in its use as live-
stock feed (see Figure 2). Indeed, growth in demand has outpaced production
in recent years: average annual grain production in 1970-72 was 12% greater
than in 1967-69, while domestic consumption increased by 18%.
Food
12. The USSR produces ample grain to feed its population. Even in years
of harvest failure, food requirements consume less than one-half of total pro-
duction. In a bumper harvest year such as 1973, only one-fourth of the grain
(60 million tons) was used as food (see Table 3). The 25% increase in the
amount of grain processed into flour and groats for human consumption in 1961-73
more than offset the 17% growth in population in part because of a decline in
the average milling rate 1s for flour from 83% in 1960 to 80% in 1973 and also
because of increased use of flour for other purposes.
13. Flour in the USSR is largely milled from wheat-83% in 1973. The
remainder is mainly rye flour; only small quantities of flour are milled from
buckwheat and other grains. Three-fifths of the flour is used by state bakeries
to make bread. Most of the remaining flour is used for other bakery goods,
noodles, and macaroni products-sold at retail or exported.
USSR: Grain Used for Food in Selected Years'
1960 1965 1970 1973
Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent
Metric of Total Metric of Total Metric of Total Metric of Total
Tons Supply Tons Supply Tons Supply Tons Supply
Total .................. 48.1 38.0 50.3 39.2 57.5 30.3 60.0 24.3
Wheat ............... 37.4 58.1 39.8 59.9 44.9 44.1 47.0 37.4
Rye ................. 8.3 50.5 7.4 45.7 8.2 63.4 8.6 71.7
Buckwheat ........... 0.2 23.9 0.3 27.3 0.7 62.9 0.7 53.1
Rice ................. 0.9 97.9 0.7 70.1 1.1 62.4 1.2 57.6
Corn ................. 0.2 2.3 0.4 5.6 0.5 5.3 0.5 2.7
Oats ................. 0.3 2.6 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.3 0.2 1.1
Barley ............... 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.2 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.9
Millet ................ 0.4 13.9 1.1 50.1 1.1 53.6 1.2 26.0
Pulses ................ 0.1 2.7 0.1 1.3 0.2 3.0 0.2 2.7
1 For sources, see Appendix A. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
11 The "milling rate" refers to the weight of flour milled from the standard weight of grain.
To offset grain shortages in 1963, the milling rate was raised to 86%, saving an estimated
2 million tons of grain.
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Figure 2
USSR: Major Grain Allocations"
Industry
Million Metric Tons
200
Exports
Feed
Food
Seed
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 0
a. Based on data in appendix A
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14. Curiously, the data indicate that considerably more flour is produced
than is consumed by the population or exported. For example, flour production
in 1972 was 44 million tons while reported consumption by the population was
about 34 million tons and exports were 0.4 million tons.12 Flour is also used for
industrial purposes-munitions, textiles, pastes and glues, and so on-and pos-
sibly for livestock feed 13 In addition, substantial losses occur in transport and
storage, particularly in handling bagged flour. But the major reason for the
discrepancy between production and reported use probably is the inadequacy
of the consumption data. Reported consumption is based on the USSR's family
budget survey, which is not representative of the entire population.14 According
to Soviet authorities, some low income groups are not surveyed. As these groups
probably eat more bread than middle and upper income groups, per capita
flour consumption is understated by the family budget survey. In this report,
flour production data rather than consumption statistics are used to estimate
grain used for food.
15. Groats-coarsely milled products such as oatmeal and rice-are made
from every grain except rye.15 Although less than 10% of grain used as food
is in the form of groats, rice and millet are consumed only as groats and account
for nearly one-half of total groats production.
16. One to two percent of the grain crop is used by industry to make
alcohol, beer, starch, and syrup (see Table 4)P1 Wheat supplied 840,000 tons
of the 1.3 million tons of grain used for alcohol in 1973. With the encourage-
ment of beer production, the quantity of barley used to make beer has increased
from 625,000 tons in 1960 to 1.2 million tons in 1973. Corn used for starch and
syrup tripled during the 1960s, reaching 600,000 tons in 197317
12Production: Narodnoye khozyaystvo v SSSR v 1973 godu (hereafter Narkhoz and the
appropriate year), Moscow, 1974, p. 323.
Consumption: Narkhoz 1972, p. 557. Per capita consumption of flour, groats, bread, and
grain products was 145 kilograms, of which about 10 kilograms are assumed to he pulses and
groats. This assumption is based on Sovetskaya torgovlya, no. 7, 1968, p. 8-9 (which separates
consumption of flour, groats, pulses, and macaroni products), and is consistent with estimated
production, Appendix Table A-1.
Exports: USSR Ministry of Foreign Trade, Vneshnyaya torgovlya SSSR za 1973 god,
Moscow, 1974, p. 33.
13Because we cannot estimate flour fed to livestock, no adjustment for this purpose is
included in the estimated quantity of grain fed to livestock (see Appendix B).
14 N. I. Buzlyakov, Metody planirovaniya povysheniya urovnya zhizni, Moscow, 1969,
p. 168.
15 Rice is usually hulled and polished as is some barley; the other grains are usually
milled, coarsely flaked, or rolled for use as dry and cooked cereals.
16 No estimate of the quantity of grain that may go into samogon (home brewed alcohol)
is included. A recent Western study estimates the quantity of samogon produced from 1956 to
1971. Assuming that private producers are one-third as efficient as industrial producers and
that all samogon is produced from grain, the quantity of grain required over the period ranges
from a low of 650,000 tons in 1959 to a high of 1.6 million tons in 1969. Because private
producers prefer to distill from sugar, sugar beets, and potatoes, it is unlikely that such
quantities of grain are used. V. Treml, Alcohol in the USSR: A Fiscal Dilemma, paper
presented at the International Slavic Conference, September 1974, Banff, Canada.
17 Starch is also produced from potatoes.
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Table 4
1960 1965 1970 1973
Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent
Metric of Total Metric of Total Metric of Total Metric of Total
Tons Supply Tons Supply Tons Supply Tons Supply
Total .................. 2.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.8 1.5 3.1 1.3
Wheat ............... 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7
Rye ................. 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.1
Buckwheat ........... Negl. 1.7 Negl. 2.2 Negl. 1.8 Negl. 1.8
Corn ................. 0.2 2.1 0.7 8.7 0.6 6.4 0.6 3.4
Oats ................. 0.1 0.4 Negl. 0.1 Neg]. 0.1 Negl. 0.1
Barley ............... 0.7 4.3 1.2 5.9 1.2 3.2 1.4 2.4
Millet ................ Negl. 0.9 Negl. 1.0 Negl. 1.7 Negl. 0.9
Pulses ................ Negl. 0.4 Negl. 0.3 Negl. 0.2 Negl. 0.3
1 For sources, see Appendix A. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
17. Each year, 24-28 million tons of grain are used for seed (see Table 5).
Improved yields have lowered the share of the crop set aside for seed from about
one-fifth in the first half of 1960s to one-seventh in the 1970s. The quantity
of grain required for seed is estimated from the area planted and the officially
recommended seeding rates. These "norms" vary according to the type of grain,
ranging from 0.23 centner per hectare for corn for grain to 2.40 centners for
rice; the seeding rate for spring wheat, the most important grain, is 2.0 centners
per hectare.18 The range in the amount of grain used for seed results partly
from minor shifts in cropping patterns and partly from the varying amounts of
reseeding necessary because of winterkill19
"'These norms seem high compared with Western practice-in Canada the rate for
spring wheat is 1.0 centner per hectare while in the United States the average is 0.9 centner.
(For Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics Catalogue, No. 22-002, 17 June 1970, p. 4. For
the United States, W. H. Leonard and J. N. Martin, Cereal Crops, Macmillan Co., 1963, p. 787.)
There is evidence, however, that Soviet farms follow or exceed the norms. According to
Komsomolskaya pravda, the president of VASKhNIL, P. P. Lobanov, said "It is certainly
tempting to think of cutting the seeding rate ... [it] would save millions of tons of seed ...
[but] if the sowing operation is conducted at a late date, on poor soil, and following a poor
predecessor crop, a reduction in the seeding rate could produce very undesirable results... .
Certainly, the seeding rates will decrease as improvements are carried out in farming tech-
niques ... [but] is it possible for us to . . . make the recommendation. Reduce the seeding
ratef No, it is not possible since it would be a premature and hasty conclusion." (Komsomolskaya
pravda, 18 May 1971, p. 2.) Pravda Ukrainy sheds further light on the exceeding of norms:
"How much seed is wasted by farmers who try to compensate for low germinating power by
exceeding the sowing norms? It is estimated that no less than 100,000 tons of ballast grain
are sown yearly over the approximately 6 million hectares of our republic which are devoted
to spring grain and legume crops." (Pravda Ukrainy, 24 January 1971, p. 2.)
19 According to one Soviet source, during 1951-70 an average of 4.7 million hectares of
grain were winterkilled each year. (V. N. Semenov, Rol' finansov i kredita v razvitii sel'skogo
khozyaystva, Moscow, 1973, p. 179.) The year-to-year fluctuation ranges from nearly zero
to as much as 11 million hectares.
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Table 5
USSR: Grain Used for Seed in Selected Years 1
Million Percent
Metric of Total
Tons Supply
1965 1970 1973
Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent
Metric of Total Metric of Total Metric of Total
Tons Supply Tons Supply Tons Supply
Total .................. 24.2 19.1 26.4
Wheat ............... 13.3 20.6 15.3
Rye ................. 3.7 22.4 3.3
Buckwheat ........... 0.2 29.6 0.2
Rice ................. Negl. 2.6 0.1
Corn ................. 0.8 8.2 0.8
Oats ................. 2.3 19.2 1.4
Barley ............... 2.7 16.9 3.9
Millet ................ 0.1 3.5 0.1
Pulses ................ 1.0 36.9 1.4
Other ................ Negl. 12.2 Ncgl.
20.6 24.6 13.0 27.9 11.3
23.0 13.9 13.6 14.8 11.8
20.1 2.2 16.8 1.9 15.9
19.4 0.2 16.4 0.2 12.9
6.3 0.1 5.3 0.1 5.9
9.6 0.7 7.2 0.7 3.9
23.2 1.9 13.5 2.5 14.0
19.4 4.4 11.4 6.2 10.9
4.4 0.1 3.4 0.1 2.0
20.4 1.2 15.6 1.4 17.0
14.6 Negl. 10.2 Negl. 8.2
1 Quantity of seed required to sow the next year's crop. For sources, see Appendix A. Because
of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
Exports
18. According to official Soviet foreign trade statistics, a small and declining
share of Soviet grain is exported (see Table 6). Since 1960, grain exports have
ranged from 4.0 million tons in 1964 to 9.7 million tons in 1971. 'Wheat accounts
for the bulk of exported grain, and most of it goes to client states in Eastern
Europe and to Cuba.
Livestock Feed
19. Estimates of total grain fed (see Table 7) are calculated from official
Soviet data on the quantity of concentrates fed. These data, however, are not
presented by type. From total concentrates fed, we deduct the estimated quanti-
ties of milling by-products, oilseed meals, and alfalfa meal fed, leaving a
residual of grain fed.20 In contrast to other uses of grain, a breakdown of total
grain fed by type of grain cannot be determined 21 Moreover, unlike the es-
timates for the other uses of grain, grain fed to livestock is almost certainly
overstated because the estimates are based on production data rather than
on standardized, or "procurement," weight 22 The difference between reported
grain fed and grain of standardized weight could be substantial. Indeed, our
calculations suggest that the weight of gross grain fed exceeded standardized
20 For the sources and derivation of our estimates, see Appendix B. No estimate of the small
amount-well under 1 million tons-of dried residuals of the starch, beet sugar, and distilling
industries fed as concentrates is included. The Soviet definition of concentrates excludes animal
and synthetic proteins.
21 Only the summary grain balance-Appendix A, Table A-1-includes feed use; with the
exception of rice, the individual grain balances usually end with large residuals, which in
part represent feed.
22 The difference between production and standardized weight is: (1) excess moisture,
trash, and dirt, which have no nutritional value, and (2) weed seeds and grain admixtures,
which may have substantial feed value, particularly in cases where one grain has grown mixed
with another.
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Table 6
1960 1965 1970 1973
Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent Million Percent
Metric of Total Metric of Total Metric of Total Metric of Total
Tons Supply Tons Supply Tons Supply Tons Supply
Total. . ................ 6.9
Wheat ............... 5.7
Rye ................. 0.7
Rice ................. Negl.
Corn ................. 0.1
Oats ................. Negl.
Barley ............... 0.3
Pulses ................
5.5 5.3 4.1 6.8 3.6 6.2 2.5
8.8 2.0 3.1 5.8 5.7 5.0 4.0
4.2 Negl. 0.2 0.2 1.4
2.6 Negl. 0.5 Negl. 0.7
1.2 0.6 6.9 0.3 2.9 0.4 2.0
0.4 Negl. 0.2 .... .... Neg]. 0.1
1.9 2.1 10.2 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.9
.... 0.5 8.0 0.1 0.9 Negl. 0.6
1 For sources, see Appendix A. Exports include flour, groats, and pulses converted to grain basis.
Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
USSR: Grain Used for Livestock Feed
Million Metric
TonsI
Percent of
Total Supply2
1960..........
43.7
34.5
1961..........
48.8
37.1
1962..........
50.3
35.7
1963..........
42.6
38.3
1964..........
37.7
23.4
1965..........
53.8
42.0
1966..........
57.9
32.2
1967..........
61.6
40.8
1968..........
66.1
38.5
1969..........
74.9
45.8
1970..........
87.9
46.3
1971..........
93.4
50.4
1972..........
92.8
50.5
1973..........
99.2
40.2
I See Appendix A, Table A-1, "Livestock feed."
2 Derived from Appendix A, Table A-1, "Livestock feed,"
divided by "Supply." (Supply equals production plus imports.)
weight during 1961-70 by 12% to 21%.23 These differences, however, cannot
be compared with those that may exist in other countries; we do not know
how much nongrain material is included in grain fed or how much damaged
or spoiled grain may be fed in any country.
`3 These calculations are based on the conflict between published information on (1) tons
of concentrates fed and (2) the quantity of feed units consumed by livestock as concentrates.
When the published tonnage figures are converted to feed units by standard norms, they
show a total for feed units of concentrates fed to livestock that is substantially higher than
the published figures. We believe that the published series for feed units has been adjusted
to exclude excess moisture, dirt, and extraneous matter. The adjustment, however, cannot
be precise, because it seems to depend on estimates of the number of feed units that would
have been required to produce the annual volume of livestock output-a procedure that
also involves the use of norms of dubious accuracy and does not account for other factors
that influence livestock productivity.
 Apprff'm eo rbbm slle 2 in 00 tue7
e procedue s for a9 oun ng Of0r t h t e disposition
of grain held by the farms. Each Soviet farm regularly reports toaa1tthe Cen-
tral Statistical Administration the feed that it has on hand as well as the
quantity it used during the preceding period. The tonnage figures are based
on the farm's own production of grain (probably on a gross basis) plus any
quantities purchased (probably on a standard basis). In making its report, the
farm is also instructed to "determine losses incurred in storage and feeding."24
Soviet estimates of feed used by the private sector, which produces roughly
one-third of all livestock products, are based on family budget survey data.
21. Because of the way we believe official figures on feed use are calculated,
much of the exaggeration of Soviet grain production resulting from excessive
moisture, dirt, and the like appears in the data on the amount of grain available for
feed. In other words, some of the grain reported as being fed would not qualify
as standardized, or "procurement," weight grain. The trash in the grain set
aside for feed would, as a matter of course, eventually be "feel"-whether the
accounting is done on a running inventory basis or whether rations are weighed
as used. On the other hand, the excess moisture in the grain when it was
received in storage may evaporate during storage. In a running inventory, the
moisture would probably be counted as being fed; but if rations are weighed,
the weight loss should be accounted for in some other way, such as residual
losses equaling the difference between the weight of the grain when stored
and when fed.
22. Setting aside the question of bias in the official figures on grain fed,
we estimate that about one-third of the total grain crop was fed to livestock
in the early 1960s. Livestock herds, however, were a residual claimant. In poor
harvest years, grain rations were cut and livestock slaughtered to conserve
supplies. The 1963 harvest failure, for example, led to a one-fifth reduction in
grain used for feed. In recent years the livestock program has received higher
priority. Livestock herds have increased, and grain fed per animal has risen
rapidly. Rather than cut rations or herds in bad crop years, the regime has
chosen to import grain. Indeed, nearly 100 million tons of grain were fed to
livestock in 1973--the year after the partial crop failure in 1972. This was more
than twice the amount fed in 1960.
23. The estimates of grain used for seed, food, industrial use, and export
are believed to be reasonably accurate. The estimates of grain fed are less
reliable. Estimates of changes in grain stocks are necessarily still more uncertain
because they are derived as residuals after subtracting (1) grain used from
available supplies and (2) "losses" (excluding excess moisture and waste in grain
retained on the farm).
24 S. S. Sergeyev, Sel'skokhozyaystvennaya statistika c osnovami ekonomicheskoy statistiki,
Moscow, 1968, p. 212. How this is done is not explained. While most farms undoubtedly
weigh feed rations, particularly grain rations, the literature is replete with examples of farms
that do not. Moreover, farm accounts do not indicate that losses are reported systematically.
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 Approved For Release 2002/07/12 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000200060002-6
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