21.6540 A 72-38

• Document Type: CREST
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• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
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• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 32
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 9, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
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 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
To Recipients of A 72-38, People's Republic of China: International Trade
Handbook, December 1972.
Please substitute the chart below, figure 2, China: Balance of Trade
on page 3 of the above publication.
China: Balance of Trade
Million US S
2500r
7950 55 00 05
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R
CH AID
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA:
INTERNATIONAL TRADE HANDBOOK
A 72-38
December 1972
A,FCNI A f c, >I;m
PLEASE RRF'TURN TO
AQENCY ARCHIVES,
STAT
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' k/ J
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This publication is prepared for the use of U. S. Govern-
ment officials. The format, coverage, and contents of the
publication are designed to meet the specific requirements
of governmental users. All inquiries concerning this docu-
ment from non-U. S. Government users are to be addressed
to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
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 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
ESEARCH AID
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA:
INTERNATIONAL TRADE HANDBOOK
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FOREWORD
This handbook on the international trade of the People's Republic of
China (PRC) was prepared as a research aid. It contains the following
information: a short text setting the trade of the PRC in perspective, assessing
PRC trade during 1971, and giving a preliminary estimate of the likely level
of China's international trade during 1972; Appendix A, comprising Tables 2
through 12, which cover trade trends, trading partners, and commodity com-
position; Appendix B, listing Chinese foreign trade corporations; Appendix C,
which is a methodological supplement; and Appendix D, a list of selected books
and periodicals for further reading on the international trade relations of the
PRC.
The statistical data for this handbook are based on the official statistics,
where available, of the trading partners of the PRC. Statistics for PRC trade with
the non-Communist developed countries and with Latin America are essentially
complete, but statistics for its trade with Africa, the Middle East, and Asia are
fragmentary. Statistics on PRC trade with the USSR and most East European
countries are available. Statistics are not available for other Communist
countries, and estimates for these countries are based on trade agreements and
other trade indicators. Non-Communist trade statistics have been adjusted to
place Chinese trade on an export f.o.b. and import c.i.f. basis.* In addition,
adjustments have been made for double counting, such as Chinese re-exports
through Hong Kong, and undercounting, such as Chinese grain purchases
delivered to other countries.
The grouping of non-Communist countries is as follows: (1) developed
countries, which combines Japan, Australia, and New Zealand in East Asia
and the Pacific; all countries except Spain and Portugal in Western Europe;
Canada and the United States in North America; and South Africa; (2) less
developed countries, which combines all other East Asian and Pacific countries;
all Middle Eastern and South Asian countries; all countries in Latin America
except Cuba; and all countries in Africa except South Africa; and (3) Hong
Kong and Macao.
*The value of imports, which are shown on a c.i.f. basis, is the value of goods delivered to
Chinese docks, including insurance and freight charges. The value of exports, which are shown on an
f.o.b. basis, is the value of goods loaded on board ship in Chinese ports.
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CONTENTS
Page
Trade in Perspective ................................................ 1
3
Historical Trends ......................... .
Patterns of Trade, 1971 ......................... .
Outlook for 1972 ..................................... ..............
Appendixes
Appendix A. Statistical Tables ...................... .
Appendix B. China: Foreign Trade Corporations and . 27
Their Areas of Responsibility ...... .
Appendix C. Methodological Supplement: Merchandise
Trade of China ....................................... 29
Appendix D. Selected Readings ......................................
Tables
1. China: Net Effect of the Currency Realignment on the
6
..
Dollar Estimates of 1970 Trade .......................... ? ..
.............
2. China: Balance of Trade, 1950-1971 ............. .
3. China: Trade, by Area and Country, 1966-1971 .................... 11
.... 13
4. China: Trade, by Area, 1966-1971 ................ ? ? ?
5. China: Major Trading Partners, by Rank, 1966-1971 ............... 14
6. China: Commodity Composition of Trade, 1966-1971 ............... 15
7. China: Commodity Composition of Exports, 1966-1971 .............. 17
8. China: Commodity Composition of Imports, 1966-1971 .............. 19
9. China: Commodity Composition of Trade with
Non-Communist Countries, 1971 ................................ 21
10. China: Commodity Composition of Trade with
Non-Communist Countries, 1970 ................................ 23
11. China: Imports of Machinery, Equipment, and
Scientific Instruments from the USSR and
Non-Communist Countries, 1966-1971 ........................... 25
12. China: Imports of Grain and Chemical Fertilizer, 1966-1971 ......... 26
.................... 2
1. China: Trade Trends, 1950-71 .............. .
.... 3
2. China: Balance of Trade, 1950-71 ............................ .
3. China: Commodity Composition of Trade, 1971 .................... 4
V
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People's Republic of China: International Trade Handbook, 1972
Trade in Perspective
1. International trade conducted by the People's Republic of China
(PRC) during 1971 amounted to US$4,660 million-$2,405 million in exports
and $2,255 million in imports. These are all record levels and, in total, represent
a 10% growth over 1970, which in turn was nearly 10% higher than the 1969
level. Total trade may be up another 10% during 1972 even after allowing for
the effects of the 1971 currency revaluations. Viewed in the context of total
international trade, Chinese exports during 1971 amounted to only 0.7% of
world exports. In the same context, total world exports in 1971 were 27%
higher than in 1969 while Chinese exports to the world over the same period
were up 18%. Chinese imports during this period were up 23%.
2. Additional economic comparisons with other countries also help to
place Chinese trade in proper international perspective. The following tabula-
tion shows two key international trade percentage comparisons of the PRC
with other selected countries for 1971.
Total Trade as a
Percent of Gross
National Product
Monetary Reserves
as a Percent of
Imports
PRC ...................................
4
30-35
USSR ..................................
5
20-25
India ..................................
8
48
United States ...........................
9
27
Japan ..................................
18
78
France .................................
25
39
Total trade of the PRC is a relatively low percentage of gross national product
(GNP); the percentage is nearly the same as that of the USSR and about one-
half that of the United States and India. This is not surprising, however, in
view of its large holdings of natural resources, the large share of GNP accounted
for by agricultural output, and the huge population which creates a vast market
for China's own products but is hampered from purchasing imports by its low
average income and the restrictive government controls.
3. China's international reserves are thought to be about $700 million
to $800 million, small in comparison with many other countries but adequate
for the size of its international trade, especially since China is void of any
long-term debt. The PRC's reserves equal 30%-35% of imports, a higher
percentage than that of the USSR and the United States but less than that of
the other countries being compared.
4. China's foreign trade is an integral part of its centralized economy;
consequently, its trends have followed the periods of economic and political
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fluctuations. Economic restoration aided by the USSR and Eastern Europe
and the attempt at rapid industrialization during the Great Leap Forward
dominated the 1950s. Trade climbed rapidly to $4.3 billion by 1959. The
economic collapse following the Great Leap and the withdrawal of Soviet aid
in 1960 caused trade to plummet to $2.7 billion by 1962. By 1966, trade had
recovered to nearly the 1959 peak level. But foreign trade was again disrupted
in 1967-68, this time by the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. By 1969,
trade had once again started to climb. Finally by 1971 it surpassed the 1959
peak, reaching nearly $4.7 billion (see Figure 1).
China: Trade Trends
Billion US S
4
1950
5. During this same historical time frame the bulk of China's trading
shifted from being with the Communist countries to being with the non-
Communist countries. Because of Mao's policy of "lean to one side" and the
Korean war trade restrictions imposed by the Western nations, China's trade
with other Communist countries during the 1950s averaged about two-
thirds of its total. But the Sino-Soviet rift encouraged China to diversify its trade,
shifting to the non-Communist countries. By 1966, trade with the Communists
had fallen to about one-fourth of China's total and it has remained below this
level since.
6. With the exception of 1951-55 and a few subsequent years, China has
maintained a favorable balance of trade worldwide (see Figure 2). These balances
are not, however, necessarily reflective of China's international financial posi-
tion. Trade with the Communist countries is bilateral, and imbalances are
generally settled with goods the following year or are matched by credits. A
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China: Balance of Trade
Million US
2500 r- ---
0L. I _ l --- 1-- L. l 1 1 1 I__ I L_.I. 1 H
1950 55 60 65
Figure 2
trade imbalance with those countries represents a flow of resources and an
opportunity cost but has little or no effect on Chinese reserves of gold and foreign
exchange. Trade deficits with the non-Communist world are generally offset
by the large remittances of foreign currency by overseas Chinese. In general,
China's policy has been to maintain balanced trade and to incur no long-term
debt.
Patterns of Trade, 1971
7. The international trade of the PRC offered few real surprises during 1971.
As expected, efforts were directed toward obtaining a favorable balance of trade
to offset the imbalance of 1970. Consequently imports increased by less than 4%
while exports were pushed up by nearly 18% over 1970. Imports from the hard
currency countries actually dropped slightly while exports expanded by $255
million, resulting in an almost equal balance of trade with these countries
during 1971.1
8. Exports were higher during 1971 with most of China's trading partners.
Imports, however, were mixed. They were up slightly from Japan; down from all
major partners in Western Europe except France and Sweden; off from Australia,
largely because of the reductions in wheat imports; but much higher with Canada,
to which wheat purchases were shifted. The general reduction in imports of $125
million from the developed non-Communist countries was offset by increased
imports of $120 million from Latin American and African nations. Part of this
shift is due to the Chinese agreements to purchase nonferrous metals from the
producing countries of Zambia, Peru, and Chile. Trade increased with the USSR
by $110 million and by $55 million with Eastern Europe, but, in general, it
remained balanced with these countries. Aid to Albania and North Vietnam
generated most of the imbalance of trade with the Communist countries.
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9. In total, non-Communist trade slipped from 80% of China's total in
1970 to 78% in 1971. Trade with developed countries as a percent of trade with
all non-Communist countries fell from 66% in 1970 to 61% during 1971. But
despite the general shifting of Chinese trade among its trading partners, Japan,
Hong Kong, and West Germany maintained their rank as the first, second, or
third largest traders with China for the fifth straight year.
10. China mainly exports foodstuffs (meats, rice, fruits, and vegetables),
crude materials, textiles, clothing, and light manufactures (see Figure 3). In
China: Commodity Composition of Trade, 1971
r Other \
Manufactured \
Goods
Textiles and /
Clothing
Manufactures
20% /Crude Materials
20"6,
Other Goods
r/
Figure 3
exchange it imports wheat, rubber, textile fibers, fertilizer, metal products,
machinery, and transport equipment. The commodity composition of China's
trade changes slowly and, as expected, during 1971 shifted only slightly from the
1970 distribution. Exports of food continued to move slowly upward while im-
ports of food moved slowly downward as a percentage of the totals. Imports of
wheat and nonferrous metals fell by a total of $135 million during 1971 while
imports of iron and steel and machinery and equipment increased by $170 million.
Purchases of iron and steel were up from Japan, Western Europe, and the
Communist countries. Machinery and equipment from the non-Communist
countries rose by about $30 million, with higher deliveries from Western Europe
more than offsetting a drop from Japan; imports of these goods also increased
by some $70 million from other Communist countries--$38 million worth from
the USSR alone.
11. A survey was taken of the total trade with China during the first six
months of 1972 for ten of China's major non-Communist trading partners, which
together account for about one-half of China's total trade. The following tabula-
tion compares the January-June 1972 trade with the same period in 1971 for
these countries (converted to million US$).
Other Goods
1%
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January-June
Million US$
1971
1972
Percentage Change
1972 over 1971
Japan ..................................
417
529
26.9
Hong Kong .............................
200
237
18.5
West Germany ..........................
109
128
17.4
Italy ...................................
58
88
51.7
France .................................
97
75
-.22.7
United Kingdom ........................
58
73
25.9
Singapore ..............................
68
70
2.9
Sweden .................................
22
33
50.0
Netherlands ............................
24
27
12.5
Switzerland .............................
16
17
6.2
Total .................................
1,069
1,277
19.5
12. The results of this survey cannot be projected uniformly to China's
total 1972 trade. But other indicators suggest a general increase over 1971 of
15%--20%, to about $5.5 billion. These indicators include:
? The Japanese-Chinese normalization efforts, the record level of Sino-
Japanese deals concluded at the 1972 spring Canton fair, the recent
signing of metals and fertilizer contracts, the new yen-yuan currency
settlement agreements, and the steady stream of Japanese businessmen
and bankers to Peking all suggest that Sino-Japanese trade will remain
at a high level throughout 1972.
? The nature of the Chinese exports to Hong Kong, mainly food and
consumer goods for the colony, along with the July devaluation of the
Hong Kong dollar against the Chinese yuan suggests that the value of
this market will remain stable and high throughout the year.
? During the first half of 1972, Chinese exports to France were up by 63%-
from $27 million to $44 million-but imports were down from $70 million
to $31 million. This imbalance and drop in trade should be overcome in
the second half of 1972 with the expected delivery to China of some 40
French locomotives worth about $35 million.
? In the second half of 1972, trade expansion with the rest of Western
Europe on balance should not differ significantly from that in the
first half.
? Trade with many of the other countries accounting for about 50% of
China's trade is expected to be up significantly for the year, especially
countries in Latin America and Africa, Canada, and the USSR. In total,
because of the lesser effects of the currency adjustments on trade with
most of these countries, the real increase will likely be higher, although
the dollar value increase may be less than with the ten countries surveyed.
13. The real increase in China's trade in 1972 may be only about one-half
the 15%-20% increase indicated by the dollar values. The increase in trade in
terms of dollars includes the effects of the currency revaluations on the dollar
estimates of China's trade as well as the real increase in the volume of goods
exchanged. Although a precise measurement of the effect of the revaluation is not
possible, a comparison of worldwide 1970 Chinese trade 2 in old and new dollars
z Data for 1970 were used because 1970 is the latest complete year for which exchange rates
remained stable.
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gives some idea of the net effect of the currency realignment on the dollar
estimates of China's trade (see Table 1). The dollar figure of 1970 trade at
December 1971 exchange rates is 10% higher than under the old rates. This
same methodology was applied to the January-June 1972 trade data for the ten
countries reviewed above, with the current dollar value being about 13% higher
than the dollar value at 1970 exchange rates. It does not tell the whole story,
however, because the new terms of trade have generated some non-quantifiable
adjustments in commodities and countries in China's trade. In addition, this
sample only represents one-half of China's total trade and the effect of the
revaluation on the estimates of the other countries will be less, especially for
those in Africa and Latin America.
14. One significant hallmark on the Chinese trading scene during 1972 has
been the initiation of direct trade between the PRC and the United States for
the first time in over 20 years. Some 35 Americans were in their first attendance
at China's semi-annual trade fair at Canton during April-May 1972. They
purchased about $5 million worth of Chinese products for delivery this year.
About twice this many Americans were invited for the fall fair during October-
November, but results of these contacts are not yet known. A few significant US
Table 1
China: Net Effect of the Currency Realignment on the Dollar Estimates of 1970 Trade
Percent Revaluation
of Local Currency
Against the Dollar
Africa ............................ 5.0 a
Australia ......................... 8 . li
Canada .......................... 8.0
Egypt ............................
8.6
France ................
]long Kong ....................... 8.6
Italy ............................. 7.5
16.'1
Japan ..........................
"
Latin America............ .
Malaysia and Singapore............ 8.5
Netherlands ... 11 .6
..............
Pakistan.... .......
Sri Lanka (Ceylon) ................ 3.0
Sweden .......................... 7.5
Switzerland ....................... 13.9
United Kingdom .................. 8.6
West Germany .................... 13.6
Other non-Communist countries..... 8.0c
USSR ............................ 9.5
Other Communist countries......... 9 0 d
Total e .........................
a Only approximate. The currencies of some
same rate as the British pound.
Calculated at 1970 Exchange
Rates
Calculated at December 1971
Exchange Rate
--- -
Total
Trade
Exports
Imports
Total
Trade
Exports
Imports
195
125
70
205
131
74
175
40
135
190
43
147
176
22
154
190
24
166
34
13
21
34
13
21
154
57
97
167
62
105
359
354
5
390
384
5
132
56
76
142
60
82
855
255
600
999
298
701
15
10
5
15
10
5
190
140
50
206
152
54
58
25
33
65
28
37
61
30
31
61
30
31
86
46
40
89
47
41
33
16
17
35
17
18
41
18
23
47
21
26
212
69
143
230
75
155
270
70
200
307
80
227
349
224
125
377
242
135
45
20
25
49
22
27
780
455
325
850
496
354
4,220
2,045
2,175
4,650
2,235
2,410
US dollar, and most of the others changed at the
b Most countries kept their rates at par with the US dollar.
Most countries changed at a rate identical with the British pound. Some remained at par with the dollar. A few changed their
rates by greater amounts than the pound.
d Some countries kept their rate at par with the ruble, while others kept their rates in line with the British pound.
e Rounded to the nearest $5 million. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
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sales have been concluded with the PRC during 1972, which are contributing to
the expansion of Sino-US trade relations. Among these are the recent sales, via
a third country intermediary, of about 400,000 metric tons of wheat and 300,000
tons of corn, valued at roughly $45 million. Another is the Boeing Company sale
of ten 707 jets for $125 million; these, however, are not scheduled for delivery
until 1973-74. If all of the grain is shipped during 1972, total two-way trade
between China and the United States this year could reach $70 million
to $80 million.
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CO 0 00 0 " 0D 2 0 0, CO
eM O m N cD m 10 00
cl I I I I
0 0~ 0 0 0 00 0 xo 00
00 O o n N
000
0
0
00
00
000
O 0
C-
CO
L- N.
CO m
00
N
QO
L-
.-+
N CO
- N
m 0J
- -
O
0~
O O
O
0~
00
O
O O
00 0~
M
O
O
eM
O
N
L~
d~
00
M
O
0J
O
N M
00 00
0- 0J
CO
O
0
00 O
O
0J
O
00
09 O
0> 00
W
00
y
ti
O
N
CO
O O
O
0
0
M 0
0
0
0
00
0]
0y 0
O 0
CO
CO
CCD n
Ili
0
0
N
00
n Op
N O
m
m
N N m
m" m m m dl "
O
.-i
N m V~
00
cD
L-
00 O
O
c0
cD
cD O O
cD
CD
O
ti
O O
0
0
0 CO 0
0
0
0
0 0 O O
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Turn-
over
Ex-
ports
Im-
ports
Bal-
ance
Turn-
over
Ex-
ports
Im-
ports
Bal-
ante
Turn-
over
Ex-
ports
Im-
ports
Bal-
ance
Turn-
over
Ex-
ports
Im-
ports
Bal-
ante
Turn-
over
Ex-
ports
Im-
ports
Bal-
ance
Turn-
over
Ex-
ports
Im-
ports
Bal-
ante
Total all countries ......................
4,245
2,210
2,035
175
3,895
1,945
1,950
-5
3,765
1,945
1,820
125
3,860
2,030
1,830
200
4,220
2,045
2,175
-130
4,660
2,405
2,255
150
Non-Communist countries .............
3,155
1,625
1,530
95
3,065
1,460
1,605
-145
2,925
1,445
1,480
-35
3,075
1,540
1,535
5
3,395
1,570
1,825
-255
3,645
1,825
1,820
5
Developed countries ................
1,855
715
1,140
-425
1,980
635
1,345
- 710
1,870
620
1,250
-630
1,930
685
1,245
-560
2,230
675
1,555
-880
2,240
810
1,430
-620
East Asia and the Pacific..........
765
330
435
-105
820
300
520
-220
725
260
465
-205
830
280
550
-270
1,040
300
740
-440
1,005
365
640
-275
Of which:
Australia ....................
121
25
96
-71
232
29
203
-174
147
32
115
-83
165
37
128
-91
175
40
135
-95
71
42
29
13
Japan .......................
631
300
311
-3i
569
266
303
- 37
567
222
345
-123
654
239
415
-176
855
255
600
-345
929
322
607
-285
Western Europe ..................
875
365
510
-145
1,030
310
720
-410
960
335
625
-290
945
380
565
-185
1,015
355
660
-305
985
410
575
-165
Of which:
France ......................
159
48
111
-63
142
40
102
-62
170
51
119
-68
110
65
45
20
154
57
97
-40
192
67
125
-58
Italy ........................
113
52
61
- 9
138
49
89
-40
126
43
83
-40
128
57
71
-14
132
56
76
-20
127
56
71
-15
Netherlands .................
44
28
16
12
39
23
16
7
57
24
33
-9
64
24
40
-16
58
25
33
-8
60
35
25
10
Sweden .....................
36
14
22
-8
63
14
49
- 35
50
16
34
-18
34
16
18
-2
33
16
17
-1
56
16
40
-24
Switzerland ..................
40
16
24
-8
40
15
25
-10
38
15
23
-8
36
19
17
2
41
18
23
-5
42
23
19
4
United Kingdom .............
178
82
96
-14
203
68
135
-67
141
71
70
1
211
79
132
- 53
212
69
143
-74
161
69
92
-23
West Germany ...............
217
82
135
-53
296
65
231
-166
272
76
196
-120
280
78
202
-124
270
70
200
-130
249
89
160
-71
North America ...................
215
20
195
-175
130
25
105
- 80
185
25
160
-135
155
25
130
-105
175
20
155
-135
245
35
215
-180
Canada .......................
215
20
195
-175
130
25
105
- 80
185
25
160
-135
156
27
129
-102
176
22
154
-132
241
28
213
-185
United States ..................
Negl
Negi
Negl
0
Negl
Negi
Negl
0
Negl
Negi
Negl
0
Negi
Negi
Negd
0
Negi
Negi
Negl
0
5
5
Negd
5
Less developed countries ............
895
510
385
125
775
515
260
255
730
500
230
270
805
515
290
225
790
525
265
260
955
570
385
185
Southeast Asia ...................
290
210
80
130
315
240
75
165
300
230
70
160
335
225
110
115
270
210
60
150
275
230
45
185
Of which:
Indonesia be .................
60
50
10
40
60
50
10
40
40
35
5
30
45
40
5
35
35
30
5
25
25
20
5
15
Malaysia and Singapore b d....
145
100
45
55
185
135
50
85
220
165
55
110
260
155
105
50
190
140
50
90
185
150
35
115
Middle East and South Asia .......
350
200
150
50
285
165
120
45
270
170
100
70
295
185
110
75
310
180
130
50
300
155
145
10
Of which:
Egypt .......................
76
39
37
2
47
23
24
- 1
37
17
20
-3
29
11
18
-7
34
13
21
-8
46
15
31
-16
Pakistan ....................
65
27
38
-11
67
31
36
- 5
53
28
25
3
53
26
27
-1
61
30
31
-1
68
31
37
-6
Sri Lanka (Ceylon)...........
80
45
35
10
72
35
37
- 2
72
38
34
4
86
45
41
4
86
46
40
6
58
26
32
-6
Latin America ...................
110
5
105
-100
15
5
10
-5
10
10
0
10
10
10
Negi
10
15
10
5
5
65
10
55
-45
Africa ...........................
145
95
50
45
160
105
55
50
150
90
60
30
165
95
70
25
195
125
70
55
315
175
140
35
Hong Kong and Macao ...........
405
400
5
395
310
310
Negi
310
325
325
Negl
325
340
340
Negl
340
375
370
5
365
450
445
5
440
Of which:
Hong Kong .................
380
377
3
374
292
291
1
290
311
310
1
309
1327
326
1
325
359
354
5
349
431
428
3
425
Communist countries .................
1,090
585
505
80
830
485
345
140
840
500
340
160
785
490
295
195
825
475
350
125
1,015
580
435
145
USSR b ...........................
320
145
175
-30
105
55
50
5
95
35
60
-25
55
30
25
5
45
20
25
-5
155
75
80
-5
Far East f .........................
230
150
80
70
240
180
60
120
240
180
60
120
200
145
55
90
190
125
65
60
225
150
75
75
Eastern Europe ....................
270
130
140
-10
245
110
135
-25
275
140
135
5
265
145
120
25
320
160
160
0
375
190
185
5
Of which:
Czechoslovakia .................
46
24
22
2
33
14
19
-5
46
25
21
4
59
33
26
7
56
25
31
-6
53
24
29
-5
East Germany .................
68
32
36
-4
69
35
34
1
65
28
37
-9
63
33
30
3
78
36
42
-6
88
44
44
0
Poland ........................
53
23
30
-7
48
19
29
-10
56
31
25
6
41
23
18
5
50
24
26
-2
58
21
37
-16
Romania ......................
66
32
34
-2
72
33
39
-6
84
43
41
2
81
42
39
3
108
58
50
8
145
85
60
25
Others ............................
270
160
110
50
240
140
100
40
230
145
85
60
265
170
95
75
270
170
100
70
260
165
95
70
e Data for individual countries, except where noted, have been rounded to the nearest $1 million. All other data have been
rounded to the nearest $5 million. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
b Rounded to the nearest $5 million.
c Official statistics from Indonesia are believed to include re-exports of Chinese goods from Hong Kong and Singapore, as there
have been no known direct imports of Chinese goods since 1966.
d Almost all of China's exports to Malaysia probably are re-exported through Singapore and thus are double counted in the
official statistics. To eliminate this double counting, estimates of China's exports to Malaysia and Singapore include only those
imports reported by Singapore. The few exports that go directly to Malaysia are probably roughly compensated for in total trade
to the area by re-exports through Singapore to Indonesia which have been reported as imports from China by both countries.
e Net of entrepot trade with third countries.
f Including North Korea, North Vietnam, and Mongolia.
s Including Yugoslavia, Cuba, and Albania.
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 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
Table 4
China: Trade, by Area
Total' ................................. 100 100 100 100 100 100
Non-Communist countries ................ 74 79 78 80 80 78
Developed countries ................... 44 51 50 50 53 48
East Asia and the Pacific ............. 18 21 19 22 25 22
Western Europe ..................... 21 26 25 24 24 21
North America ...................... 5 3 5 4 4 5
Less developed countries ............... 21 20 19 21 19 20
Southeast Asia ...................... 7 8 8 9 6 6
Middle East and South Asia .......... 8 7 7 8 7 6
Latin America ...................... 3 Negl Negi Negl Negl 1
Africa. . ............................ 3 4 4 4 5 7
Hong Kong and Macao ................ 10 8 9 9 9 10
Communist countries .................... 26 21 22 20 20 22
USSR ................................ 8 3 3 1 1 3
Far East ............................. 5 6 6 5 5 5
Eastern Europe ....................... 6 6 7 7 8 8
Other ................................ 6 6 6 7 6 6
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 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
C
O ?
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c0 C) C) M 00 O O n .0
uJ N N -+ N ~
O gg ^ O l~ O y 00 OMi
cMD m n n ~ ~ ~' m ~
IC
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14 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
Exportsa ...............................
100
100
100
100
100
100
Foodstuffs ............................
28
26
28
30
32
34
Crude materials, fuels, and edible oils....
22
23
21
22
21
20
Chemicals ............................
4
4
4
4
5
5
Manufactures .........................
42
44
44
40
42
40
Other ................................
5
3
3
3
Negl
1
Imports'` ...............................
100
100
100
100
100
100
Foodstuffs ............................
25
19
23
19
16
13
Crude materials, fuels, and edible oils....
17
16
16
17
17
16
Chemicals ............................
12
15
17
17
15
13
Manufactures .........................
45
48
43
46
51
57
Other ................................
1
1
1
1
Negl
1
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 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
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Approved For Release 2002/06/05 CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
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 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
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Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
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Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0 27
 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
APPENDIX C
Methodological Supplement: Merchandise Trade of China
The raw data used to estimate China's trade consist of official trade
statistics published by China's trading partners. Most of these data are com-
piled by the US Department of Commerce in the Value Series and the Country-
by-Commodity Series. Directions of Trade, a statistical publication of the
International Monetary Fund, contains information on the trade of some of
the less developed countries whose volume of trade with China is too small to
be included in the Commerce Department statistics or whose data are published
with an extensive timelag. For countries whose trade data are not available,
fragmentary press reports and items in such publications as China Trade Report
concerning trade agreements are used to estimate the volume of trade.
Trade data for the USSR and the East European Communist countries
are available in their official statistics. Press reports concerning trade and aid
agreements and published statements of government officials provide fragmen-
tary information on which to base estimates of trade with Cuba, Albania,
North Korea, and North Vietnam.
Adjustments
Freight Charges and Leads and Lags
Since the trade data published by non-Communist trading partners normally
show imports c.i.f. and exports f.o.b., freight (including insurance) charges
must be subtracted from the import figures to obtain the value of China's ex-
ports on an f.o.b. basis, and at the same time freight charges must be added
to the partner's export figures to obtain the c.i.f. cost of imports to China.
In addition, the partner's import figures are recorded at the date of receipt of
the goods, which lags behind the date of China's actual export of the goods.
Similarly, the partner's exports are reported before receipt of goods by China,
and an adjustment must be made for this lead. Consequently, the partner's
export figures must be "lagged" and the import figures must be "led" forward
in time to adjust these data to represent the proper timing of China's imports
and exports. For example, Western Europe's December import data lag roughly
two months behind the date the goods actually were exported from China-
that is, Western Europe's December imports are actually China's October
exports. At the same time, Western Europe's August exports are actually
China's October imports.
Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0 29
 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
The adjustments to the current export data of China's trading partners
used to obtain the value of China's calendar year (N) imports follow.
Period of the Partner's
Data Equivalent to
Freight
Length of Lead
China's Calendar
Adjustment
(Months)
Year (N)
(Percent)
Western Europe ................
2
Nov N--1 to Oct N
+ 15 a
Western Hemisphere............
1
Dec N-1 to Nov N
+ Job
Africa .........................
2
Nov N-1 to Oct N
+ 10
East Asia and the Pacific....... .
1
Dec N-1 to Nov N
+ 5 b
except:
Macao.
Middle East and South Asia .....
except:
Mediterranean countries.... .
2 e
Dec N-1 to Nov N
+15
Communist countries d..........
None
Jan N to Dec N
None
The freight adjustment was 10% before 1967 and 13.5% in 1967 and 1968.
Separate adjustments have been made for grain imports from Australia, Canada, and
Argentina that are based on actual freight charges in a given year.
1' Before the closing of the Suez Canal there was roughly a one-month lead between the time
goods were reported as exports to China and the time at which China actually received the goods
as imports. The closing of the Suez Canal in June 1967 caused an immediate two-week break in
deliveries and a long-run change to roughly a two-month lead. Goods shipped in June and
normally adjusted to be shown as China's imports in July were not received until August.
't'hus, China's imports in July were recorded as zero for the following countries: Jordan, Malta,
Syria, Turkey, Egypt, and other Middle East countries on the Mediterranean side of the Suez
Canal. As a result, China's calendar year imports in 1967 were equivalent to 11 months of
exports from these countries.
d Data for most of the Communist countries are not presented in their published statistics
on a monthly basis. The official yearbooks provide only annual data. Consequently, no attempt
has been made to adjust for leads or lags. In addition, most Communist countries show
imports and exports f.o.b. border. Thus, the import figures shown by China's trading partners
do not need to be adjusted to obtain the f.o.b. value of China's exports. Because of lack of
relevant data, the Communist partner's export figures also are not adjusted even though the
cost to China might include freight charges for the imports. In the past, the USSR accounted
for the bulk of this trade and much of the volume was overland trade. Thus, China's imports,
which were valued f.o.b. border, would involve additional freight charges as domestic costs in
its own currency. Eastern Europe, however, now accounts for much of China's trade with the
Communist countries, and a large portion of this trade travels by sea. Thus, China's imports
probably should include some adjustment for freight charges.
30 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
 Approved For Release 2002/06/05 : CIA-RDP79-00928A000100030002-0
Adjustments to import data of China's trading partners to show the value
of China's calendar year (N) exports follow.
Length of Lag
(Months)
Period of the Partner's
Data Equivalent to
China's Calendar
Year (N)
Freight
Adjustment
(Percent)
Western Europe ................
2
MarNtoFebN+1
15a
Western Hemisphere............
1
Feb N to Jan N+1
-10 b
Africa .........................
2
Mar N to Feb N + 1
-10
East Asia and the Pacific....... .
1
Feb N to Jan N+1
except:
Japan, Hong Kong, and
None
Macao.
Middle East and South Asia ..... 1
except:
Mediterranean countries ....
Communist bountries ...........
2 C Mar N to Feb N+1 -15 a
None Jan N to Dec N None
a Before 1967, freight adjustments were based on estimates of costs for individual com-
modities. In 1967-68 a flat rate of 13.5% was used which was based on average rates of about
10% before the Suez Canal was closed and on additional costs due to the Canal closure.
b Canada, Australia, and the United States report imports f.o.b. country of export. Since
freight charges are not included in the import data of these countries, no freight charge
adjustment is necessary to determine the f.o.b. value of China's exports.
c Before the closing of the Suez Canal, imports recorded by these countries lagged roughly
one month behind the date of export from China. Thus, China's June exports would normally
appear in the July import statistics of the trading partner. The closing of the Canal, however,
caused a two-week break in deliveries and increased the timelag. Consequently, China's June
exports actually were included in the July and August imports of the partners. (The July figures
were sharply reduced below normal levels.) Subsequently, China's July exports are assumed to
appear as September imports of its trading partners, and this two-month lag is expected to
continue until the Canal reopens. China's 1967 calendar year exports were thus equivalent to
the import statistics of its trading partners for 13 months. After that, the statistics for
12-month periods with a two-month lag corresponded to China's calendar year exports.
Other Adjustments
Two other major problems in deriving estimates of China's imports and
exports are double counting and unrecorded trade. Hong Kong's re-exports of
China-origin goods are subtracted from Hong Kong's imports from China and
counted as imports from China by the final recipients. Hong Kong has pub-
lished statistics on re-exports, by country, since 1967, and estimates for 1965-66
were based on the later data. For example, although Taiwan and Panama
report no trade with the PRC, re-exports through Hong Kong amounted to
$2.4 million with each in 1971. These figures have been included as China's
exports to the two countries in this handbook. Re-exports to Indonesia, however,
are apparently included in the semi-official data reported by that country,
so they were not added to the reported data. There also appears to be a
significant amount of re-exports of Chinese goods through Singapore. Although
the volume and destination of Singapore's re-exports of Chinese goods cannot
be calculated with any degree of accuracy, it is believed that most of the
re-exports go to Malaysia. Therefore, all of Singapore's imports from China
are recorded as Chinese exports to Singapore and Malaysia, and official data for
Malaysian imports from China are not counted.
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APPENDIX D
Selected Readings
US Joint Economic Committee. People's Republic of China: An Economic Assessment,
Washington: US Government Printing Office, 18 May 1972.
Alexander Eckstein. China Trade Prospects and United States Policy, New York: Praeger, 1971.
Alexander Eckstein. Communist China's Economic Growth and Foreign Trade, New York:
McGraw-Hill, 1966.
Feng-hwa Mah. The Foreign Trade of Mainland China, Chicago and New York: Aldine-
Atherton, 1971.
Chun-hsi Wu. Dollars, Dependents and Dogma (Overseas Chinese Remittances to Communist
China), Stanford: Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 1967.
Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO). How to Approach the China Market, Tokyo:
Press International, Ltd., 1972.
Audrey Donnithorne. "China as a Trading Nation," Current Scene, vol. X,. no. 2, 7 February
1972.
Dwight H. Perkins. "Is There a China Market?" Foreign Policy, no. 5, winter 1971-72.
Dwight H. Perkins. "The Chinese Economy and Its International Impact," SAIS Review
(special issue), winter 1968.
J.D. Laughton. "Chinese Market Merits a Fresh Look," British Board of Trade Journal, vol.
199, 14 October 1970.
Harold C. Champeau. "US-China Farm Trade: Past and Prologue," Foreign Agriculture,
vol. X, no. 31, 31 July 1972, and vol. X, no. 32, 7 August 1972.
Marion R. Larsen. "Home Needs Influence Mainland China's Pattern of Foreign Agricultural
Trade," Foreign Agriculture, vol. IX, no. 41, 11 October 1971.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "The New China Trade," Monthly Review, vol. 80,
January 1972.
US Department of Commerce. "Mainland China Trade Pattern in 60s Points to Sales
Possibilities," Commerce Today, vol. I, no. 15, 3 May 1971.
US Department of Commerce. "Procedures In Trade with Mainland Chinese Detailed,"
Commerce Today, vol. I, no. 18, 14 June 1971.
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