WEEKLY SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00927A011500180001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2008
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 6, 1977
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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Secret
'Weekly Summary
State Dept. review completed.
Secret
CG WS 77-018
May 6, 1977
Copy Ng 69
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 Approved For Release 2008/06/03: CIA-RDP79-00927A011500180001-7
CONTENTS
e'ligence, the Office of Weapons Intelligence,
(e of Geographic and Cartographic Research.
1 Asia
Pakistan; India; North-South
Korea; South Korea; Japan;
Cnina
4 Africa
Zaire; Zambia; Mauritania
Portugal
8 Kuwait: Arms Procurement Policy
9 Italy: Communists Seek New Concessions
11 Rhodesia: Problems of Black Rule
13 Jamaica: Manley Turns to the Moderates
14 Philippines: Marcos and the Muslim Problem
Comments and queries on the contents of this
publication are welcome. They may be
includes material coordinated with or prepared by the
&;opments of the week through noon on Thursday. It fre-
Reporting Group, reports and analyzes significant
VEEKLY,;UMMARY, issued every Friday morning by the
of Regional and Political Analysis, the Office of Eco-
Research, the Office of Strategic Research, the Office of
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Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
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SECRET
Prime Minister Bhutto and leaders of
the opposition Pakistan National Alliance
continued this week to discuss proposals
designed to end the country's two-
month-old political crisis. As the
negotiations drag on, Bhutto appears to
be becoming increasingly confident that
his position has improved and less in-
clined to accept any compromise that
could threaten his career.
Bhutto believes public support for him
is increasing because of the charges he
began making last week that the US is
conspiring with the opposition; the
government-controlled press has been
echoing his allegations in a massive
anti-American campaign. The Prime
Minister has also been encouraged by the
failure of an opposition demonstration
last weekend to match in size some earlier
ones, by the military's continuing support
for the government, and by a disagree-
ment among the opposition leaders over
Bhutto's future role.
The disagreement surfaced early this
week when former air force commander
Asghar Khan, who emerged as the leading
opposition spokesman during the cam-
paign for the disputed parliamentary elec-
tion held in March, released a statement
calling for Bhutto's resignation as a
precondition for negotiations. Other op-
position leaders were reportedly con-
sidering a compromise, offered by Bhutto,
that provided for the new National
Assembly election the opposition has
demanded but would allow Bhutto to head
a coalition government until the election.
These leaders and Bhutto seemed close to
agreement on such a settlement.
On May 4, the opposition announced a
proposal essentially along the lines of
Bhutto's proposal. In a possible effort to
paper over the disagreement within the
alliance, the opposition proposal calls for
Bhutto's immediate resignation, but
would then allow him to be appointed
head of an interim coalition government.
It is unclear whether Asghar approved
the latest proposal. If he did not and the
others conclude a separate compromise
settlement with Bhutto, they risk
splitting the opposition and greatly
diminishing its chances for victory in
a new election.
Bhutto, however, may now try to avoid
such a settlement in the belief that his im-
proved position will enable him to
ride out the crisis. The opposition was
claiming in midweek that the Prime
Minister was deliberately delaying an
agreement.
Bhutto's position could again
deteriorate quickly if the opposition can
show that it is still able to stage
demonstrations as violent as those that
took place last month. It plans
processions on May 6 throughout
Pakistan, including the three largest cities
where such actions will be in defiance of
martial law.
INDIA ('
The Janata Party, which came to power
in New Delhi after defeating the Congress
Party in the parliamentary election in
March, has moved to strengthen its
political position by scheduling state elec-
tions in half of India's 22 states and the
territory of Goa in early June. The elec-
tions will test the cohesion of the new rul-
ing party as well as its ability to best the
Congress Party at the state level where the
issue of Indira Gandhi's national
leadership may be a less decisive factor.
In March, the Janata Party and its
allies swept nine of the states, all in
northern India, in which balloting will be
held next month. The Congress Party con-
tinued to control the state governments,
however, until last weekend when the cen-
tral government dissolved the legislatures
of the nine states and imposed rule from
New Delhi in order to pave the way for
elections. Prime Minister Desai and other
Janata leaders clearly believe that their
party stands a good chance of winning in
the nine states.
Control of state governments is impor-
tant in India's federal system. Con-
siderable powers are reserved to the
states; state legislatures play a direct role
in electing members of the upper house of
parliament and cast half the votes in elec-
tions for India's president. The upper
house of parliament, currently dominated
by the Congress Party, can delay legisla-
tion; a third of its membership will be
elected next year.
Although the president is essentially a
figurehead, he also can delay the im-
plementation of government policy. The
efforts of the current acting president-a
Congress Party member-to block the
state elections briefly threatened a con-
stitutional crisis. A new president is to be
elected by August.
Janata enters the new campaign with an
outward appearance of unity. The four
parties that initially joined together last
winter in order to fight Gandhi more
effectively in the parliamentary campaign
formally merged on May 1. Additionally,
the Congress for Democracy, a smaller
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SECRET
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party led by Defense Minister Ram that
had been allied to but not a part of Janata
during the winter campaign, also merged
into the larger organization.
Despite these moves, India's ruling par-
ly remains essentially a collection of dis-
parate groups-bound together by little
more than a desire to remain in power.
The allocation of seats for the coming
elections cou d severely strain that bond.
The Congrss Party, on the other hand,
has dominated north India in previous
elections and lost there last March largely
because of Gandhi's policies. Since then,
the party has tried to shed itself of respon-
sibility for Gandhi. In any case, local
issues rather than her record will deter-
results in many races.
The tranquility that has prevailed on
the border 1'etween North and South
Korea since the serious flareup at Pan-
munjom last August was broken by a new
shooting incident this week in which a
South Korean soldier was killed and
another wounded while patrolling along
the Demilitarized Zone.
The incident occurred on the morning
of May 3, when a small North Kcrean in-
filtration team apparently trying to return
to the North encountered the South
Korean patrol. Such North Korean
teams, which conduct reconnaissa ice mis-
sions, have clashed with South Korean
units on several occasions in recent years.
The clash this week took place near
Chorwon in the central section of
the Demilitarized Zone north of
Seoul and involved an infiltration
team from the North Korean 5th
Army Corps.
North Korea began to increase armed
reconnaissance in the South about two
years ago after reducing such efforts sub-
stantially in the early 1970s. At least two
North Korean armed reconnaissance
teams were detected in the South .n 1975.
Last June, South Korean forces killed all
SOUTH KOREA
President Pak, faced with the prospect
of US troop withdrawals, has called for
new measures to build up South Korea's
defense capabilities. He reportedly is con-
sidering revising the five-year plan that
begins this year so as to allocate ad-
ditional funds for defense.
As drawn up, the plan calls for defense
spending to increase from $1.5 billion in
1976 to $4 billion by 1981. Part of the
money to pay for the increase is to come
from a special surtax introduced two
years ago. Last year, the tax ge;ierated
about $500 million in revenue; by 1981,
revenues are expected to reach $1.3
billion.
Some government planners reportedly
are optimistic that the recent upturn in the
economy will generate additional
revenues that can be spent on defense.
They also hope to apply more Foreign
capital to the defense budget. Parl of the
capital secured by Deputy Prime Minister
Nam during his recent West European
tour reportedly will be channeled to de-
y