WEEKLY SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00927A009200040001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 32
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 29, 2008
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 12, 1971
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
WEEKLY SUMMARY
State Dept. review completed.
Secret
12 November 1971
No. 0396/71
Copy No 0
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CONTENTS
(Information as of 1200 EST, 11 November 1971)
India-Pakistan: Danger of War Persists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Chile: Mbre Changes Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ?. . 5
Indochina: Cambodia; Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
FAR EAST
Thailand Ponders China ` . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
A Surprise in the Philippines . . . . . . . . . . 12
Malaysia-Singapore: Changing the Guard . . . . ' . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Inter-German Talks: A Waiting Game . . . . . 13
USSR: Little Fanfare for the Revolution ed, :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Hungary Eyes Next Phase of Reform Strpegy . . . 16
Albania: Business at the Same j d Stand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Western Europe: Summit Next ea' . . . . . . . `?, . . . . . . . . . . . 18
European Monetary Developmen '. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
USSR-Egypt: Econpmic Activities Increase 21
Morocco: Problems for the King . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 22
Zaire Republic:,-Mobutu's Dilemma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Caribbean Unity-A Failure in the Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
/TES: Iceland; Romania; International Oil; Belgium; Africa - Middle East; Tunisia;
Ecuador; Peru
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India-Pakistan: Danger of War Persists
Neither Prime Minister Gandhi's efforts in
Western -`-countries nor a Pakistani delegation's
representationsjin Peking brought forth every-
thing these missions,were seeking. Reactions in
both India and Pakistan during the next few days
may indicate the effect tPrq missions will have on
.
the likelihood of full-scale\Nar. Meanwhile, t
danger of war arising from et lation of a cal
skirmish in the east or from a Pa tani reta tort'
strike at guerrilla or army bases in dia emains
high. Cross-border clashes contin regular
Indian Army forces have made` at le ane. ,pray
Page 2
into East listen, the Mukti Bahini guerrillas are
makin~ eeper ihroads, and the morale of the
Palo?ani Army and,?,IZolice is showing signs of
Mrs. Gandhi, who is due back in India on 13
November, apparently was something less then
successful in her campaign to convince Western
statesmen to force President Yahya Khan to nego-
tiate with imprisoned Bengali leader Mujibur
\Rahman. Whether she still thinks a satisfactory
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settle
become
I come. Parli
Barer in the days following her return
ent is scheduled to reconvene on 15
November, a
direct military
Such pressure is,n
pressure is expected to build for
ion to liberate East Pakistan.
who enjoys a corg
likely to cause Mrs, Gandhi-
nding parliamentary ma-
jority and widespread
war against her better ju
blic support-'to choose
rnent, but her govern-
ment's response may shed
whether she and her ministe
avoided.
onsiderable light
A qui
visit to Peking by a Pakistani delega-
West Pakistan's leading politician
and for.rner fore
prodV, ed mixed re
received a renewed pu
on
be
peat against India, they.,:
for the visitors, Actina Fore
Mrs. Gandhi said in Paris on 8 Novem)er
that she was willing to meet with Yahya to 7dis-
cuss all problems between India and Paki an."
But she repeated her contention that Ea Paki-
sian is a Pakistani problem which sh uld be
''- Peng-fei reaffirrO his government
endorsement
of Pakistan's., 'unity and conclemne
carrying o subversive activities and
India for
threats ainst Pakistan. He clearly sugg
men
ilitary
s&ed,
that Islamabad seek a political setfF
East Pakistan and work toward a nego-,
tiaYed settlement with India.
solved through ne otiation between lamabad
' Yahya
Desp the presence of high-ranking military
officers rqthe Pakistani delegation, there was no
mention of in' ed Chinese military aid, and
Chinese pledges of port were vague and con-
tingent upon external ression.
~he, mission to China apparently laid to rest
any linger .,Pakistani hopes that China would
send troops to ' tap's aid in the event of war.
As a result, Islamaba military rulers will prob-
ably be reluctant to ini ' e major hostilities,
unless their position in East akistan becomes
intolerable and they decide tha only a war will
-''Teri 3sion -r ain high on the India - East
Pakistan frontier. Bo 'tarn ies continue to fire
artillery across the border and to a Asa each
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nt can be achieved without war should
minister, leftist Z. A. Bhutto,
Its. Although the Pakistanis
is plec'ge of Chinese sup-
ost certainly got less
aking at a banquet
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r
tricts, and have beer- engaging Pakistani troops in
heavy fighting i,ii' Sylhet District. The Mukti
Bahini, which,r-ss affiliated with the politically
moderate Aw6mi League, also is reported to be
battling with radical leftist guerrilla bands in sev-
eral area:' Bombings are occurring more fre-
quently in Dacca and Chittagong, and several
bank 76bberies have been attributed to the Mukti
Ba jrii since the beginning of the month. Attacks
or2 collaborators are also increasing.
On 5 November a guerrilla bomb damaged a
coastal vessel near the port of Chandpur that was
carrying foodgrain and was clearly marked as en-
gaged in UN relief operations. The attack could
indicate that some guerrilla groups have decided
to interfere with UN relief operations. Many of
the guerrillas are convinced that international re-
lief efforts are not helping the majority of the
Bengali people.
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Page 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY 12 Nov 71
The Pakistani position in the east is eroding.
The Mukti Bahini has stepped up its activities.
The guerrillas have apparently taken control of
the Kishorgaraj area in,Mymensingh District and
the rural portions of Barisal and Patuakhali dis-
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Chile: More Changes Ahead
While attention in Chile focused on Fidel
Castro's visit, the Allende government began
taking new measures to sustain its momentum.
Among the more important are moves to restruc-
ture the Congress and electoral procedures and to
renegotiate Chile's large foreign debt.
During his first anniversary speech on 4 No-
vember, Allende said that he was submitting leg-
islation to create a unicameral congress, although
he avoided using his Socialist Party's favorite
term, "popular assembly." He said he would also
ask for reapportionment, the scheduling of legisla-
tive elections coincident with presidential ones,
elimination of by-elections, and power for the
president to dissolve congress once during his
tarm. Most of these appear logical ways to reform
Chile's cumbersome parliamentary and electoral
systems; some have been favored by exasperated
chief executives in the past.Uasp.ite gorse--rrrTS-
giv++ gs +t?-c p ion ranks, Allende thinks lie can
get- ost of-th'G`changes through congress.
If the congress were to reject the legislation,
the matter would be put to a plebiscite. Some
reports have suggested that Allende and the Com-
munist Party have been reluctant to do this until
they were sure of success. Recent regular, student
a.-id union elections have not been reassuring, but
Allende may have decided that there is little to
gain by waiting. The Socialists, always radical,
have pressed for prompt creation of a "popular
assembly" as a basic revolutionary need that the
Chilean people would be sure to approve.
Congressional action on the bill might drag
o;at for many months before Allende could claim
total rejection and call a plebiscite, although he
has constitutional means to force the issue. Op-
position Christian Democrats have claimed that
they could stall the process for "at least a year."
The next regular legislative elections are set 16
months hence, in March 1973.
Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic and
National parties are trying to overcome their
mutual distaste and field single candidates in by-
elections to be held on 16 January for a senate
and a chamber seat. The two have been able to
agree to do this only once since Allende came to
power, and the candidate won.
In his long speech on 4 November, Allende
again switched from tolerance to criticism of the
Movement of the Revolutionary Left's continued
extrem ism and incitement of violence. He
emphasized his government's non-Marxist plural-
ity by welcoming the Christian Left, the new
affiliation of Agriculture Minister Chonchol. He
did not refer to his failure to force the Radical
Party to accept his wish and appoint some of its
dissident moderates to official posts. The dis-
sidents, led by half the Radical congressional con-
tingent, have formed a new party that seems
likely to be more influenced by its leaders' politi-
cal ambitions than by its vague promise of "inde-
pendent cooperation" with the Allende coalition.
In a list of rosy but one-sided economic
statistics, Allende referred to Chile's foreign debt.
He said it had been "contracted by preceding
governments" and was the largest per capita debt
in the world after Israel. Five days later he an-
nounced that Chile would attempt to renegotiate
and consolidate the debt. As he has done before,
he implied that Chile would pay the third-party
debts of the copper companies. As usual, he left
himself several outs.
Allende has chosen to temper his public
remark that he planned "with all due respect" to
ask Castro if the Cuban leader did not agree that
Chile had accomplished more in one year of revo-
lution than Cuba, and without "social cost."
Later he emphasized the similarity of the two
countries' revolutionary struggle and their soli-
darity, but said that tactics were different because
Cuba "always had dictatorships" while Chile has
been a constitutional democracy.
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Castro's Odyssey Begins
Castro arrived in the Chilean capital on 10
November and was scheduled to travel to the
northern copper mining areas two days later.
Despite a few minor incidents, his reception was
warm and friendly and large crowds turned out to
greet him. He reportedly will go from Antofagasta
to Concepcion and Punta Arenas before returning
to Santiago. If he is permitted to make the per-
sonal contacts he wants with student, labor, and
political leaders, the boost to his ego-deflated
somewhat by declining popularity at home-could
be considerable.
The makeup of the delegation accompanying
Castro is remarkably unspectacular and suggests
the trip is not a business one. Armando Hart, for
example, is primarily concerned with domestic
political tasks and rarely becomes involved in
international affairs. Education Minister Castilla
and Minister of Mines, Metallurgy, and Fuels
Miret are concerned mainly with the conduct and
development of their respective ministries; they
presumably will pursue the contacts between the
two countries in their respective fields. The inclu-
sion of the Havana army commander suggests
Havana realizes the importance of developing a
"correct" professional relationship with Chilean
military leaders. All four members of the delega-
tion are totally committed to Castro and none has
either the inclination or the political stature to
upstage Fidel during the trip.
After four years of concentration on do-
mestic problems, Fidel Castro is now turning to
international relations. On departing for Chile,
Castro announced that he will also visit Algeria,
Hungary, Bulgaria, and the USSR sometime next
year. If his sojourns abroad reduce his meddling
in domestic economic schemes, the effect on the
national economy may be salutary. They will also
help to dispel the sense of isolation the Cubans
have experienced ever since the suspension of
Cuba from the Organization of American States
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Cambodia: The Going Gets Sticky
The Communists brought their dry season
offensive to Phnom Penh's doorstep on 10 No-
vember when they launched a mortar and rocket
barrage against Pochentong Airfield, and followed
it with a ground attack against a nearby com-
munications site. Damage to aircraft and airfield
facilities was light-three planes destroyed and 13
damaged. In last January's shelling and sapper
assault against Pochentong approximately three
quarters of the Cambodian Air Force was de-
stroyed.
The Communists have also stepped up ac-
tivity northwest of the capital. Two army bat-
talions were attacked near Bat Doeng, the present
terminus of rail service out of Phnom Penh.
Farther to the northwest, the Communists over-
ran the village of Bamnak, where the cross-
country rail line was originally severed last year.
Government losses were 36 killed and 100
wounded in these actions.
The heaviest fighting is still along Route 6
where Chenla II forces remain engaged at Rum-
long. The fighting has entered the third week and
has begun to take its toll among government
troops in the field and among Cambodian Army
leaders in Phnom Penh. ,1,sei.ior Kbmer_ rom
officer claims never'to'have"seen such heavy .fight=
irig.in his 15 years of service The--'Communists
appear to be maneuvering srnll units armed with
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r~~^ s2 i, ~,vea s throughout the area-ant re
abla.to - ck barrage o?n go\`erri
ment troops-.--
The Communists are maintaining the pres-
sure despite what appear to be very heavy losses
from air strikes. They evidently have been forced
to rotate their forces. ^l=en N t'ca##ed