WEEKLY SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 1
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
WEEKLY SUMMARY
State Dept. review completed
3
Secret
43%
21 November 1969
No. 0397/69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
(Information as of noon EST, 20 November 1969)
VIETNAM
Communist military activity may soon increase sub-
stantially as the infiltration pipeline fills with
men and supplies. In Saigon, meanwhile, protests
against the government continue.
CHINA'S BACK-TO-THE-LAND MOVEMENT
Peking is re-emphasizing its campaign to disperse
urban population to the countryside.
LAOTIAN COMMUNISTS PUT ON THE PRESSURE
The Communists are beginning to step up the offen-
sive in both northern and southern Laos.
THAI INSURGENTS LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER
Communist guerrillas in several parts of the country
appear ready to take bolder action during the ap-
proaching dry season.
SINGAPORE ATTRACTS COMMUNIST COMMERCIAL INTEREST
The Communists are increasingly using Singapore as
an entrepot for trade with the free world.
Europe
THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE 11
CZECHOSLOVAKS FOCUS ON POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Prague leaders apparently are intent on pushing
ahead to the final phase of the "normalization" pro-
cess, hoping thereby to relieve Soviet domination of
their domestic affairs. The regime has continued
its purge of reformists and has also considered new
measures to stimulate the ailing economy.
SECRET
Page i WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
Middle East - Africa
MIDDLE EAST CRISIS SIMMERS ON
Hostilities along the cease-fire lines shifted this
week to the Israeli-Jordanian border and were high-
lighted by an attack on the port of Eilat by Egyp-
tian frogmen.
INDIRA GANDHI WINS A POLITICAL BATTLE IN INDIA
The prime minister has bested her Congress Party
rivals, but their defection leaves her dependent
on uncertain support from the opposition benches
and poses loyalty problems for state party function-
aries.
COUP PLOT IN CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE) HEIGHTENS CONFUSION
President Ngouabi's apparent overreaction to the
plot thwarted earlier this month by Brazzaville
security services threatens to weaken even further
his already hard-pressed, radical regime.
Western Hemisphere
THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE 17
GRECHKO'S VISIT TO CUBA REMAINS UNEXPLAINED
Grechko and his high-level military delegation pre-
sumably were mainly interested in inspecting Cuba's
armed forces and reviewing the performance of Soviet
technicians.
SECRET
Page i i WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
CHILEAN MILITARY DISSATISFACTION BRINGS STATE OF SIEGE
Growing mistrust and resentment between the Chilean
government and military officers may soon lead to
more trouble.
SURINAM INSTALLS NEW GOVERNMENT
Prospects are generally bright for a relatively calm,
four-year term for the new coalition government in-
stalled this week.
SECRET
Page iii WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
An upsurge in the infiltration of North Vietnamese troops into the
South suggests that the Communists may depart by early next year from the
relatively cautious tactics they have employed since last spring. In the
meantime, they are expected to maintain their recently stepped-up pace of
attacks against South Vietnamese forces for at least the next few weeks.
Political disaffection continues in Saigon; Buddhist monks of Cam-
bodian origin protested for special minority rights before the presidential
palace for a time this week, and the National Assembly has continued to
criticize the government's austerity program. General Duong Van "Big"
Minh restated his earlier proposal to hold a popular referendum on the
government. Minh also called for an end to the war through negotiations
among the contending Vietnamese. The Viet Cong quickly indicated some
support for Minh's referendum idea.
As many as 20 million Chinese may be affected by Peking's latest drive
to reduce urban populations. The authorities are facing an uphill struggle to
keep the relocated city dwellers in the countryside, and warnings to prepare
for imminent attack from the Soviet Union have given the current drive a
needed boost. At least one motive for the mass movement may be to shift
the burden of support of nonproductive urbanites from the state to the
peasantry.
The advent of the dry season in Southeast Asia has allowed the
Communists in Laos to begin increasing the pressure on government forces
near the infiltration corridor in the southern panhandle and against General
Vang Pao's guerrillas around the Plaine des Jarres in the north. Communist
guerrillas in several parts of Thailand appear ready to take bolder action as
the dry season begins in their areas of operation. Bangkok foresees no major
increase in the Communist threat, however.
Prime Minister Holyoake's governing National Party will probably re-
tain its modest majority after New Zealand's parliamentary elections on 29
November. The National Party has benefited from the country's recovery
from an economic slump.
Finally, the books were closed on West Irian's "act of self-determina-
tion" when the UN General Assembly officially acknowledged this week that
the West Irianese had chosen last summer to cast their lot with Indo-
nesia.
SECRET
Page 1 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
VIETNAM
Chill Winds From the North
Hanoi may have decided to
pursue the war in South Vietnam
with renewed vigor in the months
ahead. This could mean a sharp
break with the relatively cau-
tious tactics the Communists have
employed since last spring, but
the evidence is not yet good
enough to define future enemy
plans with any precision. Stepped-
up fighting appears likely in the
next few weeks, and Communist
forces are laying the ground-
work for what could become an
even bigger military drive in
the first part of 1970.
Scattered Action Anticipated
Communist forces are
preparing to attack in several
parts of the country before long,
but there is little evidence that
immediate enemy plans call for a
coordinated, country-wide offen-
sive or that urban areas will be
high priority targets. Allied
military installations and gov-
ernment pacification programs
seem to be the enemy's primary
objectives at the moment. The
Communists are also trying to re-
build their local force and guer-
rilla strength to support larger
unit operations in the future.
Page 2
Although this year's Commu-
nist "winter-spring" campaign has
begun on a modest scale, it still
appears to have fairly ambitious
goals. The concentration of more
than 5,000 enemy troops in the
Bu Prang - Duc Lap area and their
offensive activities to date sug-
gest that they intend to conduct
operations roughly on the scale
of this summer's efforts against
the Ben Het Special Forces camp
farther north in the highlands.
Recent movements of several
major North Vietnamese combat
units also suggest that some forces
that have been out of action for
a long time are to be committed
to battle during the latter phases
of the enemy's winter-spring cam-
paign.
Turbulence in Saigon
Dissatisfaction with the gov-
ernment for various reasons contin-
ues in Saigon, creating an atmosphere
conducive to protest; so far all
of it has been nonviolent. Last
week Buddhist monks of ethnic Cam-
bodian (Khmer) origin, who gen-
erally are politically quiescent,
organized a five-day sit-in dem-
onstration in front of the presi-
dential palace. They were pro-
testing the government's deci-
sion not to give ethnic Cambod-
ians special minority rights.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
The government, fearing that the
Communists or other antigovern-
ment groups such as the militant
An Quang Buddhists might try to
exploit the Khmer grievances for
their own ends, finally broke up
the demonstration, busing the
monks back to their pagoda.
NORTH VIETNAM
_`?~i~EMILITARI2 ED 2O4E
LIUANG Y,R!~
LAOS
PHNOM
PENH
~UA THiFN/
Jf./~.i.I .9
r 4UANfn NAM / f (.0015
'~/ ^U\,AN6 TIN
~~-v ~ nnN ~ you
/ erv
?
~)ARLAC _.? /"r?
~." ~tl .MANN
,~Duc Lap?
Bu Pra- y
CANH
f
8 y RA
n nuoc ., \ ., .~~ ', HEN HL..
O 50 100
MILES
The National Assembly, mean-
while, continues to react sharply
against the government's imposi-
tion of increased "austerity"
taxes on imported goods. Follow-
ing a three-day interpellation
of Prime Minister Khiem and his
economic ministers, the Upper
House declared that it was "not
satisfied" with the answers pro-
vided by the cabinet officers,
and indicated that it was plan-
ning to vote for a resolution cri-
ticizing the government and the
tax increases. In response to
an Upper House request, the Su-
preme Court is preparing a de-
cision on the constitutionality
of the government's action.
Another critic of the gov-
ernment, General Duong Van "Big"
Minh, has restated his earlier
proposal that the government re-
assess the popular will by con-
vening a national congress or by
conducting a national referendum.
Minh again last week called for
a conclusion to the war through
negotiations among the contend-
ing Vietnamese., Although his
formulation is still hazy, Minh
appears to be attempting to dif-
ferentiate his proposal from Sena-
tor Tran Van Don's third-force
neutrality idea.
SECRET
Page 3
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
The uneasy political atmos-
phere in Saigon is apparently
viewed by the Communists as a
golden opportunity to apply in-
creased political pressure on
the Thieu government. Abandon-
ing their usual caution toward
ambitious South Vietnamese poli-
ticians, the Viet Cong quickly
indicated partial support for
"Big" Minh's idea of a referen-
dum. At a well-publicized news
conference in Paris, their chief
negotiator, Madame Binh, endorsed
the concept of a public consul-
tation, but with the careful pro-
viso that Viet Cong - controlled
"liberated" areas should be ex-
cluded. She-strongly implied,
moreover, that Minh might be an
SECRET
acceptable alternative to Thieu--
that he might be able to form the
kind of "peace cabinet" with which
the Communists could negotiate.
ent situation offers a wide
variety of exploitable issues.
flation, the new austerity pro-
gram, or any other available pre-
text and suggests that the pres-
Although Communist direc-
tives have for some months been
placing increased emphasis on "po-
litical struggle" activity, a
document captured recently in III
Corps south of Saigon underscores
the immediacy of the enemy's in-
terest in furthering political
dissent. It urges cadres to get
the people onto the streets to
demonstrate against the govern-
ment on such issues as peace, in-
Page 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
CHINAS BACK-TO-THE-LAND MOVEMENT
Peking is in the midst of
its most intensive effort to date
to reduce urban populations. Cit-
ies throughout the country are
ordering students, dependents,
the aged and infirm, and the un-
employed to move to outlying vil-
lages, ostensibly in preparation
for war. In addition, visitors
to the cities--some of whom had
become semipermanent residents--
are being directed to return home.
It is impossible to deter-
mine precisely how many people
have been moved thus far, but
the number affected may approach
20 million or more.
Canton and Shang-
hai will evacuate 500,000 persons
each, Foochow and Amoy 50,000 each,
and Nan-ch'ang about 200,000.
Peking's past efforts to
send large numbers of city resi-
dents to the countryside have been
thwarted by efforts at evasion
and by the rapid return to the
cities of those who were "sent
down." There is no reason to be-
lieve that current efforts, which
are on a larger scale, will not
generate commensurate problems.
Students in various cities have
often gone so far as to refuse
to accept their rural assignments,
and many have gone into hiding.
Moreover, many students who were
assigned have managed to "escape"
back into the cities. Because
such displaced persons have no ra-
tion cards or residence papers,
Page 5
they often turn to illegal means
for survival and thus contribute
to the rising urban crime rate.
In addition, many of the assignees
are former Red Guards who have
learned the tactics of mob action
and who almost certainly are dis-
gruntled over being hustled out
of the cities. Their presence
in the countryside is thus a po-
tential source of trouble.
A further influx of large
numbers of nonproductive urban-
ites into the countryside clearly
will add to the burdens of the
peasantry, who must assume primary
responsibility for feeding and 25X1
otherwise accommodating them.
Peasants have already complained
that assignees are a drain on
food stocks, and that they are
useless at performing agricul-
tural tasks. Peking, moreover,
has shown no intention of provid-
ing state aid for the resettled
people. In fact, shifting the
burden of support from the state
to the peasantry seems to be at
least one motive for the mass
movement.
The regime's warnings to
prepare for an imminent attack
from the Soviet Union have given
the latest drive to reduce the
urban population a needed shot
in the arm, because many urban-
ites seem more willing to leave
the cities as part of "war prep-
arations" measures than they
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
Laos: Current Situation
Communist-controlled territory
71 Contested territory
Limit of area claimed under
Communist and Neutralist
control, June 1962
NORTH
VIETNAM
Increased enemy
activity
~Ban
Taleo
Government"
outpost
overrun
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
would otherwise. The effective-
ness of this tactic is bound to
decrease, however, if as a result
of the Sino-Soviet talks in Pe-
king the threat of war with the
Soviets becomes more remote. In
fact, local authorities already
may be running into difficulty
in persuading people in the cit-
ies to move out. Many, particu-
LAOTIAN COMMUNISTS
In southern Laos the Commu-
nists are moving forcefully to
clear troops from the western
edge of the infiltration corri-
dor. Communist military activity
in the Plaine des Jarres area in
northern Laos is also on the in-
crease.
On 19 November a North Viet-
namese and Pathet Lao multib attal-
ion force launched an abortive at-
tack against the government sup-
port base at Muong Phalane in
southern Laos. Farther west, the
enemy had more success as local
defenders retreated in the face
of an attack on a small government
outpost at Ban Taleo.
This recent flurry of Com-
munist military activity probably
represents an effort to secure
the infiltration corridor area at
a time when the flow of supplies
and men to South Vietnam is begin-
ning to pick up. The enemy thrusts
in the south were probably prompted
by the government's occupation of
Muong Phine in early September,
the deepest penetration into Com-
munist supply lines in the pan-
handle in several years. The
SECRET
larly the aged, probably plead
that they cannot afford the ex-
pense of relocating. Should the
campaign falter, the regime may
be unwilling or unable to assume
the costs necessary to see it
through and may be forced to aban-
don the program well short of its
goals.
PUT ON THE PRESSURE
Communists also want to ensure
that the key town of Tchepone re-
mains unassailable.
In the north, Communist forces
appear to be moving gradually to-
ward wider offensive activity.
Recently Communist forces have
mounted several sharp attacks
against government outposts in
the Xieng Khouangville area. The
heaviest fighting has been con-
centrated near the town's air-
strip, which has changed hands
several times in recent weeks.
Although the Communists have
thus far avoided large-unit op-
erations, probably because of
supply difficulties and their
vulnerability to air strikes, the
attacks are taking an increas-
ingly heavier toll of the govern-
ment's already dangerously thin
ranks. The loss of some govern-
ment positions near Xieng Khouang-
ville does not immediately en-
danger the government's hold over
the Plaine des Jarres, but it does
appear to signal the opening round
of the enemy's attempt to regain
SECRET
Page 7
WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
THAI INSURGENTS LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER
Communist guerrillas in sev-
eral parts of the country appear
ready to take bolder action during
the approaching dry season. Bang-
kok has made some moves in antic-
ipation of additional pressures,
but foresees no major jump in the
Communist threat.
In the north and north-cen-
tral provinces, the Communists
have improved their tribal guer-
rilla organization in the moun-
tains, presumably in preparation JL
government security forces.
As many as 1,600 guerril-
ow may be operating near
the Laotian border, an increase
of 500 during the past year.
They have been virtually unop-
posed by government security
forces, which have been ordered
to minimize suppressive opera-
tions.
The Communists may also be
setting the stage for their first
serious effort to move into ad-
jacent lowlands. Sightings of
ethnic Thai guerrillas and scat-
tered incidents in these pre-
viouslyquiet areas indicate the
Communists are beginning to ex-
tend their influence among this
part of the population in the
north. The effort could run into
considerable difficulty, however,
because of Communist support for
tribal peoples who are looked
down on by the ethnic Thais and
because of more determined gov-
ernment efforts to ensure secu-
rity in the lowland areas.
In the northeast, the in-
surgents have begun to spread
out from their traditional oper-
ating areas, apparently as part
of their year-long effort to
broaden village support struc-
tures. These incursions
may also be designed to keep se-
curity forces off balance, a
tactic used in previous years
with only limited success. There
is no indication, however, that
the Communists in this area soon
intend to take on government mil-
itary forces.
In the southern peninsular
provinces, Thai insurgents appear
to be challenging the government's
presence for the first time. They
have doubled their strength in
the last year to about 400 and
recently have made violent at-
tacks on local defense forces and
government development projects
that have dramatized their pres-
ence beyond their actual strength.
The government has made desultory
efforts to strengthen its secu-
rity forces and has ordered the
national Communist Suppression Op-
erations Directorate to take
charge of security efforts in
the south. Bangkok will have to
do much more, however, to gener-
ate the comprehensive counterin-
programs necessary to
surgency 25X1
blunt a sustained Communist ini-
tiative in the south.
SECRET
Page 8 WEEKLY SUMMARY
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
SECRET
insurgents Improve
Tribal Guerrilla Capabilities FNI[AN
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
SINGAPORE ATTRACTS COMMUNIST COMMERCIAL INTEREST
Singapore's modern commercial
facilities and its position at the
crossroads of Asian trade is at-
tracting increasing Communist in-
terest. Particularly for Commu-
nist China, it is a significant
source of foreign-exchange earn-
ings and provides an important
outlet for trade with the free
world. Singapore is seeking to
retain its role as a middleman
and would like to develop new mar-
kets in Communist countries for
its small and slow-growing exports
of manufactures. Trade with these
countries, however, continues to
account for only about nine per-
cent of Singapore's total trade.
Trade relations with Commu-
nist China, Singapore's most im-
portant Communist trading partner,
have returned to normal following
a dispute this summer with the
local branch of the Bank of China.
Chinese commercial activities have
increased significantly since 1967
when Peking transferred a large
share of its re-export trade to
Singapore following the riots in
Hong Kong. Last year Singapore,
with earnings of some $124 million,
was Peking's largest source of
foreign exchange, after Hong Kong.
Trade in 1968 totaled $176 million.
North Korea also has found
Singapore a main source of its
small foreign-exchange earnings.
Trade that was minimal before the
establishment of a North Korean
trade mission in 1967 amounted to
$8 million in 1968. North Viet-
nam's recent efforts to encourage
trade with Singapore, however, have
not yet met with much success.
Next month Singapore will open
a trade office in Moscow, its first
in a Communist country. It will be
under the auspices of INTRACO, the
state trading company that was es-
tablished last year to provide more
control and an improved bargaining
position in trade with Communist
countries.
Moscow has`had a trade office
in Singapore since 1966, when the
two countries signed their first
trade agreement. Trade totaled
about $45 million last year, and
has consisted very largely of So-
viet purchases of Malaysian rubber
sold through Singapore. Moscow is
increasing its efforts to expand
exports to Singapore, however
Last
year the Soviets formed a joint
shipping agency with Singapore,
and Moscow has recently initiated
regular weekly civil air service
to the city-state.
Singapore's trade with Eastern
Europe reached about $30 million
last year. Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
Poland, and Bulgaria have estab-
lished local trade offices, and
the latter two countries also have
concluded trade agreements. A
high-level Bulgarian trade dele-
gation visited Singapore last month
to open two Bulgarian-owned fac-
tories, bringing the total number
of such businesses to seven. The
Bulgarians also have investigated 25X1
direct air service between Sofia
and Singapore
SECRET
Page 10 WEEKLY SUMMARY
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
The USSR views the preliminary phase of the strategic arms limitations
talks, which began in Helsinki on 17 November, as a vehicle for developing
an "agenda" and determining the "problem areas" to be discussed in sub-
sequent talks. Soviet press treatment of SALT has been positive, with
Izvestia acknowledging that the talks must be guided by the principle of
"sufficiency."
The Soviet Union has begun implementing one provision of the Warsaw
Pact's recent declaration on convening a European security conference by
conducting preparatory talks with West Germany and the US. The discus-
sions in Bonn and Washington resulted in nothing new except an affirmation
by Moscow that it had no objection to participation by the United States
and Canada.
The US has given Canada a revised verification article for the draft
seabeds treaty that met Ottawa's objection that the text was deficient in the
area of inspection arrangements. The Canadians have adopted the draft
article as their own and are offering it to others as an attempt to achieve a
universally acceptable solution to verification problems. Such a development
increases prospects for endorsement of the treaty by the UN, as Canada
enjoys great influence among the nonaligned nations on this issue.
No surprises have occurred thus far in the disarmament debate in the
UN General Assembly's political and security committee. The Mexican
representative announced that his delegation will begin consultations soon
on a proposed UN resolution that would call for a moratorium on the testing
of nuclear strategic weapons systems, not now operational, for two years
pending the results of SALT. It seems unlikely, however, that any substantial
number of UN members, despite their pronounced desire for curbs on the
arms race, would seek to influence the Helsinki negotiations at such an early
stage by an official statement.
SECRET
Page 11 WEEKLY SUMMARY
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
CZECHOSLOVAKS Focus ON POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Prague leaders are continu-
ing their nationwide purge of re-
formists. They apparently are
intent on pushing ahead to the
final phase of the "normalization"
process, hoping thereby to relieve
Soviet domination of their domes-
tic affairs. The regime also is
considering new measures to stim-
ulate the anemic economy, and a
new plan will be put in effect
early next year.
Some party organizations in
the Czech lands of Bohemia and
Moravia are being reshuffled for
the second time. This probably
means that the more extreme con-
servatives have persuaded party
head Lubomir Strougal to conduct
a more extensive purge than Czech-
oslovak party first secretary Gus-
tav Husak and his colleagues origi-
nally intended. These second-
time-around purges suggest that
some of the conservatives and
moderates who have replaced lib-
erals since last November are not
moving fast enough to implement
the regime's policies. They may
also be intended as warnings to
new appointees not to drag their
feet.
Prague is also taking steps
to make sure that the mass media,
which have largely been silent,
remain that way. Press, radio,
and television officials prominent
during the Dubcek era in 1968 have
been fired and expelled from the
party. This action effectively
isolates this group of recalci-
trant intellectuals and makes
them more vulnerable to prosecu-
tion as "antisocialist" dissidents.
Meanwhile, the government
is presently working on a draft
economic program for 1970 and a
new five-year-plan to extend
through 1975. The Czechoslovaks
have abandoned the "fundamental
framework" of the liberal economic
reform program shaped under the
ultraprogressive Ota Sik, and
are now soliciting less liberal
reform ideas from other states
in the Soviet bloc. For example,
Slovak party secretary Pavlenda
recently spent a week in Sofia
studying Bulgarian economic pro-
grams. Draft bills on the na-
tional economy and on enterprise
taxes, as well as new state bud-
get regulations, will be debated
at the party central committee's
"economic" plenum in December.
SECRET
Page 12 WEEKLY SUMMARY
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
India's Prime Minister Gandhi has, for the moment, bested her old-
guard rivals in the Congress Party. Only 65 party members shifted to
opposition benches when Parliament reconvened on 17 November, and Mrs.
Gandhi was able to muster a handsome 306 to 140 majority to defeat a
no-confidence motion. Her supporters plan to elect a new party president
this weekend, further solidifying the formal division of the party. Mrs.
Gandhi has forfeited her one-party parliamentary majority, however, and
may have trouble accommodating the special and often conflicting interests
of her new allies.
The focus of hostilities in the Middle East shifted to the Jordanian
front with a number of artillery exchanges and Israeli-fedayeen clashes along
the northern cease-fire lines. To the south, Egyptian frogmen pulled off a
dramatic raid in the port of Eilat. The Israelis, during an otherwise successful
attack on the Egyptian-manned radar site in southern Jordan, lost the first of
their recently acquired F-4 Phantom jets.
UN debate on the refugee welfare agency (UNRWA) was highlighted by
a series of acerbic exchanges. A fedayeen representative charged the Israelis
with "war crimes and genocide." The Israeli delegate, noting the involvement
of some refugee camps in terrorist activities, called for UNRWA to cease
services to such camps, maintaining that the UN "cannot give assistance to
persons engaged in warfare against a member state." In Israel, meanwhile,
Defense Minister Dayan warned that continued fedayeen terrorist activities
would result in stricter internal security measures.
Nigerian federal troops rioted in the suburbs of Lagos on 19 November
as a result of a local hassle involving the death of a soldier. Other army units
were sent in, and calm had been restored by nightfall. The riots apparently
had no political motivation, but they did reveal a serious potential for
disorder among a large number of soldiers. In the civil war, heavy fighting
continues, but neither side has made any major gains.
Ethiopian security officials this week quashed a plot to assassinate the
Emperor. The ringleader, a former high official of the Supreme Court long
known as an inveterate plotter, is said to have committed suicide when
There is no indication so far
that many conspirators were involved, but o ice have nevertheless launched
an intensive investigation.
SECRET
Page 13 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
MIDDLE EAST CRISIS SIMMERS ON
The focus of hostilities
along the cease-fire lines
shifted from the Egyptian to
the Jordanian front with a num-
ber of artillery exchanges in
the north and a series of Is-
raeli-fedayeen clashes. The
most dramatic--and, for the Is-
raelis, the most embarrassing--
incident of the week, however,
was an attack by Egyptian frog-
men on the sensitive and impor-
tant port of Eilat, at the head
of the Gulf of Aqaba.
The attack damaged two Is-
raeli craft, one a merchant ship,
the other a ferry used in runs
from Eilat to Sharm ash-Shaykh.
The route or means the Egyptians
used to get into the area is not
yet known, but an attack so deep
inside Israeli-held territory
demonstrates new Egyptian capa-
bilities and is certain to raise
Israel's ire. Tel Aviv holds
Jordan culpable for allegedly
permitting the attack to be
staged from its territory, but
the fact that the frogmen were
Egyptian will also put that
country in line for Israeli re-
taliation.
In the Lebanese refugee
camps, security conditions have
deteriorated sharply as rival
fedayeen groups clash with each
other. The Arab guerrillas have
also begun carrying out personal
vendettas under the guise of
searching for those who allegedly
collaborated with Lebanese se-
curity forces during the recent
crisis. Attempts by leaders of
the various fedayeen groups to
resolve their problems and bring
a measure of stability to the 25X1
cam s have been of no avail.
SECRET
Page 14 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
INDIRA GANDHI WINS A POLITICAL BATTLE IN INDIA
The Congress Party, which
had governed India virtually
alone since independence, sepa-
rated formally into opposing fac-
tions this week and lost its one-
party parliamentary majority. The
power struggle between Prime Min-
ister Gandhi and old guard party
leaders came to a head on 16 No-
vember when the old guard met un-
der the chairmanship of party
president Nijalingappa to choose
Morarji Desai as its legislative
leader. When Parliament recon-
vened the next day, Desai, a
former deputy prime minister and
one of Mrs. Gandhi's archenemies,
moved with 65 dissenting Congress
Party members to the opposition
benches of the lower house.
Prime Minister Gandhi's sup-
porters in the lower house, about
210 strong, were then joined by
a mixed bag of independents and
other opposition parties, includ-
ing the Communists, to defeat a
no-confidence motion that was
brought against Mrs. Gandhi's
government by a right-wing opposi-
Old-guard leader Morajai Desai putting in his daily
stint at the spinning wheel, a symbolic act
initiated by the revered Mahatma Gandhi.
tion party. The prime minister
would have survived the challenge
to her parliamentary leadership
even without the 35 Communist
votes she received, as her major-
ity was an overwhelming 306 to
140.
At the moment, even though
she heads a minority government,
Mrs. Gandhi is riding the crest
of a wave of personal political
success. It remains to be seen,
however, whether she can trans-
late this momentum into solid
governmental gains. Although it
was relatively easy for her to
survive the no-confidence motion,
she will have difficulty retain-
ing the support of all her diverse
new backers when important policy
questions are involved.
Mrs. Gandhi's faction of the
Congress Party still intends to
hold its own meeting of the party's
top governing body, the All-India
Congress Committee, on 22 November.
This group plans to elect a new
party president, a move that will
further solidify the formal divi-
sion of the party. The division
at the center will have important
repercussions in state party organ-
izations. At present, a few local
Congress parties are too preoccu-
pied with state problems to be
disturbed by national issues, but
others have already begun to expe-
rience the disruptive effects of
the leadership struggle, and some
may split. It is too early to tell
whether Mrs. Gandhi can eventually
create a stronger, more viable 25X1
Congress Party, but the short-
term outlook is for increased
instability.
SECRET
Page 15 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
COUP PLOT IN CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE) HEIGHTENS CONFUSION
The political situation in
radical Congo (Brazzaville) re-
mains in a high state of turmoil
and confusion following the sei-
zure of a large cache of arms
and the arrest of a number of an-
tigovernment plotters earlier
this month.
President Ngouabi's extreme
reaction to the discovery of the
plot, an amateurish affair with
little apparent chance of success,
is likely to increase the strains
on his beleaguered regime. The
plotters were publicly paraded
amid noisy demands for severe
punishment and increased vigilance
in the face of "imperialist" at-
tempts to destroy "scientific so-
cialism" in Brazzaville. Ngouabi
angrily accused neighboring Congo
(Kinshasa), the US, and unnamed
European countries of providing
the plotters with guerrilla train-
ing, money, and arms. Four al-
leged leaders of the group were
condemned to death by a hastily
organized special court, and 22
other members were given jail
terms; ten more were sentenced to
death in absentia.
The plot has also been used
as justification for a number of
high-level civilian and military
personnel changes, including a
shake-up in the key defense and
interior ministries. In addition,
Ngouabi has announced the crea-
tion of a committee to overhaul
the existing government structure,
and has ordered the establishment
of armed vigilance brigades to
root out "subversive elements."
He has also abolished all laws
governing the judiciary, the
military, and the civil service.
25X1
The immediate effects of
Ngouabi's frenzied attempts to
cope with the current situation
will be heightened confusion
within the military and civil
service, as well as fear among
the populace over the creation
of armed vigilante groups. The
long-term effect will probably
be a further weakening of the
already unstable and chaotic ad-
ministration, and a further al- 25X1
ienation of the tribal opposi-
tion.
SECRET
Pagc 16 WEEKLY SUMMNIABY
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
SECRET
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
Military unrest persists in Chile, and troops were put on alert on 19
November in an attempt to forestall renewed defiance by military
malcontents.
In Bolivia, armed forces commander General Torres outlined his views
on a new role for the Latin American military in a recent speech before a
visiting delegation of the Inter-American Defense Board. He called on all
Latin American armed forces to focus their energies on the problems of
"impoverishment" caused by the differences between the industrialized and
underdeveloped countries. He said that if solutions to the social ills on which
Communism breeds are not found, "the people will have no other option but
the route of violence and uncontrollable revolution."
A new passenger air route between Cuba and Latin America may soon
be available. Mexicana Airlines, which operates a semimonthly mail flight
between Mexico City and Havana via Merida, Mexico, has requested Mexican
authorities to allow it to carry passengers on the Havana-Merida leg of the
flight. The flight would be timed to connect with Mexicana flights between
Merida and Kingston, Jamaica, which is a convenient transit point. Passen-
gers from Havana would all be booked through to Kingston.
The government of El Salvador wants OAS assistance to set up an airlift
operation to circumvent Honduran obstruction of Salvadoran trade with
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and OAS officials have led the Salvadorans to
believe that their response will be favorable. Although El Salvador does not
regard the airlift as a permanent solution to the problem, it is convinced that
it will have a beneficial psychological and economic effect on the country
and on the government's political image.
In Venezuela, the nationwide teachers' strike in effect since 30 October
was settled late last week after the government agreed to raise teachers'
salaries 45 percent. Student violence has flared up again however . Troops
were ordered to occupy the university in Merida on 19 November after a day
of violence in which 29 olive were inured.
SECRET
Page 17 WEEKLY SUMMARY
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927A007400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
GRECHKO'S VISIT TO CUBA REMAINS UNEXPLAINED
Soviet Defense Minister Grech-
ko's sudden and unexplained week-
long visit to Cuba--reportedly at
the invitation of Cuban Armed Forces
Minister Raul Castro--ended on 19
November with no communique. The
purpose of the visit remains unex-
plained, both sides describing it
only as a friendly one. The Cubans
accorded Grechko the full red-carpet
treatment, in line with the warming
trend that has marked Cuban-Soviet
relations for the last year or so.
Presumably, Grechko and his high-
level military delegation were
mainly interested in inspecting
Cuba's armed forces and reviewing
the performance of Soviet techni-
cians. The composition of the del-
egation does not suggest that de-
tailed negotiations on military as-
sistance were undertaken.
The favorable play given the
visit by the Cubans contrasts
sharply with the antipathy toward
the USSR expressed by Fidel Castro
in late 1967 and early 1968. Soviet
press accounts were less attentive
to the event, restricting themselves
largely to factual reporting.
Grechko's arrival marked the
first time that a key Soviet offi-
cial has traveled to Cuba since the
Kosygin visit of July 1967. In ad-
dition to the usual ceremonial func-
tions, including a symbolic cutting
of sugar cane, Grechko and his en-
tourage were taken on a tour of
various military installations in
the Havana area. During their stay,
they also visited several agricul-
tural and livestock development 25X1
projects, with Fidel Castro acting
as guide.
CHILEAN MILITARY DISSATISFACTION BRINGS STATE OF SIEGE
Concessions gained after the
army revolt led by General Roberto
Viaux last month have spurred fur-
ther defiance of the government by
young military officers. They are
dissatisfied over the amount of
their pay raise, but mistrust of
the Frei government and a belief
that the military is no longer re-
spected by other sectors of Chilean
society are more basic factors for
the growing turbulence that caused
President Frei to declare a state
of emergency in Santiago Province
on 19 November. Rumors of plotting
are numerous, and some Chileans re-
portedly believe President Frei may
actually hope for a coup attempt
in the belief that he might profit
by it.
SECRET
Page 18 WEEKLY SUMMARY
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
President Frei and his Chris-
tian Democratic Party apparently
are unsure of how to deal further
with the growing restlessness in
the armed forces. They believe
that the grievances should have
been allayed by the promised mili-
tary pay raise, the announcement
that new military equipment will
be purchased, the retirement of
unpopular senior commanders, and
the consequent improvement of
promotion opportunities. The
government's preoccupation with
the coming election is also af-
fecting the Christian Democrats'
reaction to the unsettled situa-
SECRET
Page 19 WEEKLY SUM MAEY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
SECRET
SURINAM INSTALLS NEW GOVERNMENT
Three weeks of maneuvering
following the elections on 24 Oc-
tober have produced yet another
coalition government for Surinam,
but the composition of the new
administration installed this
week holds the prospect of con-
tinued stability.
The coalition is led by
Jagernath Lachmon's East Indian
United Hindu Party (VHP) and the
Creole (Negro) dominated People's
National Party. Together they
control 27 of the 39 seats in the
unicameral legislature--an im-
pressive majority. The VHP nar-
rowly missed winning a majority
in the elections last month by
taking 19 seats. The voters en-
dorsed both parties' generally
conservative policies. In con-
trast, former Minister-President
Pengel's more radical and corrup-
tion-ridden National Party made
a poor showing, slipping from 17
to 11 seats. They now are the
major opposition.
-".... Coa l_ ,,n - New Minister-President
De Facto Colition Leader
Party leader Lachmon, who
formed the new government, de-
clined to seek either the minis-
ter-presidency or a cabinet posi-
tion. The appointment of a Creole,
Jules Sedney, as minister-presi-
dent is probably intended to as-
suage fears that after a decade
of Negro leadership the sizable
Creole minority might react vio-
lently to a non-Creole leader.
Sedney is described by the US
consul as "progressive and mildly
anti-US, but a weak leader." The
ministers-designate are relatively
undistinguished as well. This sug-
gests that Lachmon, who retains
his legislative seat, will con-
tinue to wield significant if not
decisive influence.
The government probably will
not undertake any policy initia-
tives regarding independence from
the Netherlands, but the Dutch are
likely to grant the country fur-
ther responsibility for foreign af-
fairs. The government will also
proceed cautiously in its border
dispute with neighboring Guyana.
Internally, the need for tax and
administrative reform as well as
a reduction in the budget deficit
demands immediate attention and may
require some unpopular measures.
Despite generally bright
prospects for a relatively calm
four-year term, labor disputes,
especially if coupled with racial
strife, could lead eventually to
serious disturbances. Union leader
and extreme leftist Edward Bruma,
whose party won a legislative
seat for the first time, is a PO- 25X1
tentially disruptive influence.
SECRET
Page 20 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 Nov 69
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2008/07/28: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07400070001-5