WEEKLY SUMMARY

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Secret
NAVY review
completed.
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
WEEKLY SUMMARY
Secret
50
8 September 1967
No. 0306/67
/.,/1. 2i t?t 21 i AGENCY At AI V ES,
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`'" SECRET %Wf
(Information as of noon EDT, 7 September 1967)
VIETNAM
Heavy ground fighting has resumed following last
weekend's elections. Viet Cong pre-election harass-
ment failed to deter an 83-percent turnout of the
country's registered voters, and the victorious
Thieu-Ky ticket has settled down to the problem of
selecting a cabinet. The Liberation Front last
week tried to counter some of the government's re-
cent political momentum by publishing a new program
for "total victory" and national unity.
CULTURAL REVOLUTION HURTING CHINESE FOREIGN TRADE
The effects of China's internal disorders, harass-
ment of foreign shipping, and bitter propaganda
against trade partners are beginning to show up in
declining foreign trade, especially with such major
partners as Hong Kong and Japan.
FIGHTING INTENSIFIES IN COMMUNIST CHINA
Fighting between rival Red Guard groups is becoming
fiercer in many areas, and for the first time in the
Cultural Revolution, regular military weapons are
being used on a wide scale. The role of the military
remains confused, with no evidence of engagements
between military units but growing indications of
factional splits in local commands.
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CHOU EN-LAI AND THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION
Chou En-lai's toughness, caution, and willingness to
use the knife when necessary have served him well in
the vicious infighting that has been part of the
Cultural Revolution from the outset. Throughout
this period of officially encouraged violence and
disorder, Chou has consistently been the spokesman
for moderation, and is probably the only high-rank-
ing official still able to talk with all groups en-
gaged in the current struggle for supremacy. Barring
a complete collapse of the regime, he has the best
prospect of surviving in authority. (Published sep-
arately as Special Report OCI No. 0306/67A)
VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN HONG KONG
Militant Communists are continuing their campaign of
violence and propaganda against British authorities
in Hong Kong despite setbacks from police raids on
Communist control centers. The border remained
relatively quiet last week.
Europe
SOVIET MILITARY RENEWS PRESSURES FOR ECONOMIC PRIORITIES
Articles in the Soviet military press during the sum-
mer have stressed traditional heavy industry themes,
thus renewing the argument for the priority of de-
fense claims on national resources.
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WEST GERMAN ECONOMY IMPROVES
The brightening economic outlook should help Chan-
cellor Kiesinger get parliamentary approval of his
plans for dealing with long-standing budget and
finance problems.
Middle East - Africa
ARAB SUMMIT CONFERENCE SOUNDS "MODERATE" NOTE
The Arab summit meeting ended without developing any
specific new proposals for ending the current Arab-
Israeli stalemate. Nasir, however, reportedly im-
pressed both Kings Husayn and Faysal with his real-
istic! attitude toward a political settlement with
Israel. Since 5 June, about 60,500 tons of military
equipment has either been delivered or is en route.
The Soviet Mediterranean squadron currently com-
prises 12 surface warships and at least seven sub-
marines, down slightly from its high during the
Middle East crisis.
BRITISH AGREE TO NEGOTIATE WITH SOUTH ARABIAN NATIONALISTS 16
UK High Commissioner Sir Humphrey Trevelyan last
weekend obtained the British cabinet's approval of
his plan to open negotiations with the National Lib-
eration Front for the formation of a new South Arab-
ian government.
AFRICAN STATES MEET IN KINSHASA
Delegations from most of the 38 members of the
Organization of African Unity are now meeting in
Kinshasa as a prelude to a "summit" next week. It
is unlikely that either conference will produce any-
thing new or startling.
Western Hemisphere
NICARAGUAN GUARD DEALS HEAVY BLOW TO GUERRILLAS
The Nicaraguan National Guard, in its month-long
counterinsurgency campaign, has severely crippled the
guerrilla arm of the pro-Castro Sandinist National
Liberation Front.
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CHILEAN GOVERNMENT MOVES AGAINST THE RIGHT
Leaders of the conservative National Party have
been arrested for criticizing the government's
handling of a minor border incident with Argentina.
POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION IN PARAGUAY
Opposition parties helped draft the constitution
promulgated on 25 August, and Paraguayan politi-
cians now hope for more freedom of action.
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FAR EAST
Widespread Viet Cong terrorism failed to prevent
any significant number of South Vietnamese from vot-
ing in the 3 September elections. Eighty-three per-
cent of the registered voters turned out to elect
the Thieu-Ky ticket by a margin that fell short of.
Thieu's public forecast. Runner-up.Truong Dinh Dzu
outdistanced his civilian rivals by exploiting the
peace issue and attacking the military regime.
Charges of election fraud by the defeated candi-
dates may cause some political turmoil in the immedi-
ate postelection period. It appears unlikely, how-
ever,. that they can present hard evidence of any sub-
stantial vote rigging. Thieu and Ky have turned
their attention to forming the new government and
reportedly have agreed to name Nguyen Van Loc, Ky's
former vice-presidential running-mate, to the prime
minister's post. The senior generals also reportedly
intend to reserve four key cabinet positions for mil-
itary officers.
In an obvious attempt to counter the expected
victory of Thieu and Ky, Hanoi published a refurbished
National Liberation Front political program that
pledged to continue the war until "total victory" and
demanded that the Saigon regime be replaced by a broad
"national union" government. The program contained
no changes in the Communist position on a negotiated
settlement of the war.
The drift toward greater violence in China con-
tinues with frequent reports of pitched battles in-
volving the use of heavy weapons. Rival Red Guard
factions are ignoring new appeals by Chou En-lai and
others to return to schools or work and to end the
violence. In Peking, there were further signs of
sharp tension between Maoist leaders and the top
echelon in the army's Cultural Revolution group and
its General Political Department. There was also
more evidence of splits in local military commands,
with rival factions supporting opposing Red Guard
groups. There have thus far been no reports, how-
ever, of direct clashes between rival military units.
The Hong Kong border remained generally quiet.
and security personnel.
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VIETNAM
Heavy ground fighting has re-
sumed in South 'Vietnam's northern
I Corps following the weekend elec-
tions. A widespread but largely in-
effective Communist terrorist cam-
paign failed to deter an election
turnout of 83 percent of the coun-
try's almost five million registered
voters.
Communist antielection activity
was characterized by attacks on pro-
vincial towns and hamlets through-
out the country as well as road
blocks and grenade attacks on poll-
ing places. During the four days
before the election, 210 Communist
incidents occurred with nearly 220
persons killed, more than 1,100
wounded, and another 500 abducted.
This enemy activity tapered off
late on election day, although
some further harassment and casual-
ties occurred.
Despite a level of violence
three to four times above normal
and well above last fall's pre-
election rate, the Communists
succeeded in disrupting voting at
only a few widely scattered polling
stations, and apparently did not
deter any significant number of
voters from going to the polls.
Vigorous precautionary measures
by allied military and civilian of-
ficials checked a number of planned
enemy initiatives, and the over-all
effectiveness of government security
represents a setback to Communist
prestige.
Renewed ground fighting, re-
ported in various scattered areas,
was heaviest in Quang Tin Province.
Early this week 180 enemy soldiers
were killed by US Marines in a 20-
hour battle--the largest in recent
weeks--northwest of the provincial
capital, Tam Ky. The enemy force
was probably subordinate to the
North Vietnamese Army (NVA) 2nd
Division, believed to have re-
cently reinforced local guerrilla
units in coastal regions of north-
eastern Quang Tin. American cas-
ualties were high, with 54 killed
and 104 wounded.
In mid-week, a second large-
scale engagement took place in the
same general area when elements of
two US Marine battalions encoun-
tered an estimated enemy regiment.
As a result of nearly nine hours
of fierce fighting, another 142
NVA soldiers were killed. Initial
reports indicated at least 36 Amer-
icans killed and another 152
wounded.
In another action, an enemy
force, believed to be of multibat-
talion size, launched a bold at-
tack--the second in less than a
week--on Tam Ky on 6 September.
The predawn attack included co-
ordinated assaults on four key in-
stallations. The enemy, driven
off with help from US flareships
and gunships, left 217 dead be-
hind. Communist losses also in-
cluded nine persons detained and
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72 weapons captured (eight crew
served).
Postelection Politiking
A period of some turmoil is
likely to follow the Thieu-Ky
presidential victory. Defeated
candidates Truong Dinh Dzu, Phan
Khac Suu, Tran Van Huong, and
Ha Thuc Ky apparently intend to
protest the results, and there
is some possibility the election
could be invalidated. Although
generally progovernment, the Pro-
visional National Assembly, which
must rule on the legality of the
election results, has shown its
independence on a number of oc-
casions and some deputies may,
in this instance, see fit to at-
tempt an annulment.
Some defeated civilian can-
didates could attempt to gener-
ate demonstrations, especially
if their attempts to invalidate
the election are unsuccessful.
In addition, the militant Bud-
dhists and members of the Saigon
Students' Union are reportedly
planning disturbances in the Sai-
gon area.
Although the new government
has not yet begun to take shape,
some decisions are being made on
key positions.
SOUTH VIETNAM
Dong Hoi
NORTH
VIETNAM
I ?Quang Tn
UANG TRI
1:f4 Hue
LTHUA THIEN
has been announced as future de-
fense minister. General Linh Quang
Vien will apparently retain the
Ministry of National Security, and
General Vinh Loc has been offered
the Ministry of Information, although
he has thus far been reluctant to
give up his command of II Corps. No
replacement has yet been named for
Minister of Revolutionary Develop-
ment Thang, who Thieu recently an-
nounced will become chief of staff
of the Joint General Staff.
Nguyen Van Loc,
Ky's former vice-presidential run-
ning-mate, has now been approved
by all hands for the prime minis-
ter's post, which has limited
constitutional authority.
Four key ministries will prob-
ably continue to be headed by mili-
tary men. General Nguyen Van Vy
Thieu and Ky will probably
offer positions to some losing
presidential candidates. The candi-
dates themselves, in view of their
vitriolic attacks on the government,
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QUANG TtN AOu Lai
?Q~ang Ngai
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may not accept, but their running
mates or close supporters could
prove more cooperative. Some mem-
bers of the Revolutionary Dai Viet
Party reportedly are willing to
join the new government.
A military cleanup and reor-
ganization is already in the works.
A number of officers, including
five or six generals, are report-
edly under investigation for cor-
ruption and will be either court-
martialed or retired quietly, ac-
cording to the seriousness of their
offenses. In addition, Thieu prom-
ised in one of his last campaign
speeches to revamp the administra-
tive system--especially at local
levels--to eliminate corruption,
to replace inefficient civil
servants, and to minimize red tape
and bottlenecks.
Although still unconfirmed,
Senate election returns indicate
the Catholics won a significant
victory. Two lists backed by
Catholic organizations placed high
among the six ten-man slates elected.
Retired General Tran Van Don's
list, which included a number of
prominent individuals, was clearly
the favorite, receiving some
300,000 more votes than the second
place list. The other winning
tickets round out the Senate as
a broadly based body that should
be generally cooperative with the
government.
The Front's Answer to the Elections
The National Liberation Front
attempted to add to postelection
confusion by publishing an updated
political platform on the eve of
the elections. The new program does
not significantly change important
Front attitudes toward a negotiated
settlement, demands for a role in
any postwar government, or plans
for reunification with the North.
The document is a refurbishing of
the Front's ten-point program of
1960, and an attempt to formulate
a more appealing, comprehensive,
and sophisticated political plat-
form.
Although the new document does
provide new details on Front policy
toward an elected government, land
reform, and guarantees of personal
freedoms, most of these additions
are in direct response to similar
moves by the South Vietnamese Gov-
ernment. One of the most striking
"innovations" is a reverse Chieu Hoi
program--a strong appeal to all
groups in South Vietnam for coopera-
tion with the Front. The appeal ex-
tends to current members of the
government and army and promises
them rewarding jobs.
The tone of the new platform
suggests the Front sees an imme-
diate need to compete with recent
South Vietnamese efforts to promote
political and constitutional re-
form, to check the momentum Sai-
gon has derived from these steps,
and hopefully to attract coopera-
tion from some of the losin
candidates.
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CULTURAL REVOLUTION HURTING CHINESE FOREIGN TRADE
China's internal disorders,
harassment of foreign shipping,
and bitter propaganda against
trade partners are beginning to
have a detrimental effect on
foreign trade. From the incom-
plete data so far available, some
decline seems probable during the
last half of this year.
Trade with Hong Kong, a
major source of China's hard-
currency earnings, began to fall
off during the second quarter of
this year. The low of $21 mil-
lion for the month of July is a
drop of about 45 percent com-
pared with July 1966.
Trade with Japan, China's
largest trade partner in 1966,
came to only $278 million by the
end of June, about 20 percent
below the same six-month period
last year. Although other fac-
tors played a role, the decrease
is caused at least in part by
the Cultural Revolution. There
are delays in shipments to
Japanese importers, and Peking
canceled an August shipment of
pig iron from the An-shan steel
plant, which has been subjected
to Red Guard harassment.
Western European trade did
not grow during the first half
of the year as it had in the
past few years, and press reports
indicate that the 1967 Sino-Soviet
trade agreement calls for a lower
level of trade than the $310 mil-
lion reached last year. Even
China's imports of grain may be
affected. Peking has postponed
talks with Canadian wheat of-
ficials because of the "illness"
of Chinese negotiators.
Red Guard harassment of for-
eign ships in Chinese ports may
also have an impact. Some West-
ern crews coming out of China
already have quit their jobs
rather than return. Since the
Svirsk incident at Dairen in early
August, in which a Soviet merchant
ship was damaged and some crew mem-
bers roughed up, several Soviet
ships scheduled to enter Chinese
ports have been diverted elsewhere
and three ships that were in Dairen
left without loading.
In August, European tech-
nical personnel supervising the
construction of petrochemical
plants in Lan-chou were forced
to suspend work because of Red
Guard harassment. When the Euro-
peans returned to the construc-
tion sites, there were practically
no Chinese workers to continue
construction and technicians ex-
pect further delays that will
probably affect imports of equip-
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FIGHTING INTENSIFIES IN COMMUNIST CHINA
Fighting between rival Red
Guard groups is becoming fiercer
in many areas, and for the first
time in the Cultural Revolution
regular military weapons are being
used on a wide scale. Previously,
only fists, stones, and sharpened
bamboo poles were used in most
clashes. Now, however, reports
often refer to the use of rifles,
and machine guns, and even of
tanks and artillery.
At least 2,000 Red Guards in
Canton had died by 30 August, ac-
cording to a poster report
casualties resulting from subse-
quent battles. The city's hospi-
tals are said to be filled with
wounded Guards.
The role of the military in
all this remains confused, but
there is no evidence of engagements
between military units. There are
numerous indications that local
military commands have split into
factions, however, each secretly
making arms available to favored
Red Guard groups. This is a charge
often made in Red Guard newspapers
with which Red Guard groups acquire
weapons lends credence to the
charge.
Because of its proximity to
Hong Kong, more information on the
conflict between the military and
the Maoists is available from
Kwangtung than from most other
provinces. This information indi-
cates that one group of Red Guards
has been supported and armed by
the Kwangtung Military Control Com-
mittee headed by Huang Yung-sheng,
the powerful commander of the
Canton Military Region (MR).
A rival group of Guards--a
highly militant force aligned with
prominent Maoist organizations in
Peking--is reported to be backed by
elements of the 47th Army, whose
headquarters is in Chang-sha, 400
miles north of Canton.
At least one, and possibly two,
infantry regiments of the 47th have
been stationed in Canton since
March, and their parent division is
based in northern Kwangtung.
The 47th Army, normally subor-
dinate to the Canton MR, assumed
control of Hunan Province from the
Hunan Military District in early
August, and is the only tactical unit
in China known to have been given a
major political role.
Maoist Red Guard newspapers in
Canton, which have been attacking
Canton MR commander Huang for months,
charge he is a confederate of the
dismissed Hunan leaders. They
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heavy
WEEKLY SUMMARY 8 Sep 67
25X1
25X1
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were Huang.'s subordinates. and all
were under heavy Red Guard criti-
cism for their "conservative"
stand.
In spite of the criticism by
Maoist elements in Canton, Huang
was present at a military ceremony
in Peking on 2 September, attended
by Chou-En-lai and by Madame Mao
and other Maoist leaders.. Huang's
JAMMU
AND
KASHMIR
(afeWa in dispN.I
Ch.ng-chhuun,
INNER "NGDCIkN
i~
LIAQNING
7~ T.Ingteo
NPI -"`/ SHANTU 'G
CANt, 1!
a ACAO KONG
rn-.i (U.K.)
NORTH
VIETNAM
SECRET
Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY
appearance in Peking,. apparently
in good. standing,. could indicate
the Maoists are retreating. in his
case. There is-no evidence,.how
ever, of any attempt to curb Maoist
forces' attacking him-in.Kwangtung.
There are other signs that
Maoist leaders are attempting to
ease tensions between themselves
and disgruntled military leaders.
8 Sep 67
Cant ~'
HONG
EAST'
CHINA
SEA
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The army's Cultural Revolution
(purge) Group apparently was re-
shuffled in mid--August; several key
members with backgrounds in politi-
cal work reportedly were replaced
with professional officers from
the air force, the Rear Services
Department, and the navy.
The dismissed members had
seemed to be trusted by the Maoists,
whereas at least one of the new mem-
bers, the director of the Rear Serv-
ices Department, was viciously
criticized last winter by Red Guards
and was suspended for a while.
People's Daily recently published
a highly indignant article denoun-
cing his inquisitors and claiming
that "almost all" their charges
against Rear Services officers had
proved groundless.
The top echelon of the army's
General Political Department (GPD),
a key political control organiza-
tion generally disliked by profes-
sional officers, has come under a
cloud and some members, including
its director, may have been removed
in the aftermath of the Wuhan in-
cident, in which two high-ranking
emissaries from Peking were detained.
Posters have explicitly linked the
GPDwith the open defiance of Pe-
king by the commander of the Wuhan
MR. The political department was
not represented at major turnouts
of military leaders in mid-August
and 2 September. In the past, it
has always been near the top of
VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN HONG KONG
Militant Communists are con-
tinuing their campaign of violence
and propaganda against British au-
thorities in Hong Kong despite set-
backs from police raids on Commu-
nist control centers. The border
remained generally quiet last week
and Peking's relatively restrained
propaganda commentary continues to
underscore its cautious policy to-
ward the colony.
The Communists apparently are
focusing their terrorist attacks on
security forces. On two occasions
last week, police inspectors were
set upon while off duty and their
service revolvers were seized. Nu-
erous patrolmen were targets of
bomb attacks, although some civil-
ians were also casualties. In addi-
tion, the Communists have switched
their more vitriolic anti-British
propaganda from the regular daily
newspaper editions and are flood-
ing the colony with bootlegged
"mosquito" newssheets in the hope
of exhausting police control ef-
forts.
The Communists' organization
in Hong Kong has started gearing up
for the Chinese National Day cele-
bration on 1 October. The leaders
probably hope to demonstrate the
solidarity of their organization
and stimulate their followers to
continue the struggle against the
government.
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EUROPE
A number of high-ranking travelers drew Europe's
attention this week.
The Poles, who rarely see Western chiefs of
state, had the red carpet out for President de Gaulle.
His state visit, a part of his effort to promote de-
tente, began on 6 September and will end on the 12th.
Party general secretary Brezhnev and Premier
Kosygin have been in Budapest to sign a new friend-
ship and mutual assistance pact with Hungary. This
completed the renewals of these 20-year treaties be-
tween the USSR and each of its Warsaw Pact allies,
except Rumania.
East German party boss Ulbricht is in Sofia to
sign a similar treaty with Bulgaria, which will com-
plete a series linking East Germany to each of its
allies, except Rumania.
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SOVIET MILITARY RENEWS PRESSURES FOR ECONOMIC PRIORITIES
Articles in the Soviet mili-
tary press during the summer have
stressed traditional heavy industry
themes, thereby renewing the argu-
ment for the priority of defense
claims on national resources.
Some members of the regime may
be seeking to restrain military
spending in an effort to cope with
the rising costs of offensive and
defensive strategic weapons pro-
grams--costs that are now exerting
heavy pressures on the economy. The
military, on the other hand, may be
pressing for programs that the gov-
ernment is unwilling to accept. The
articles have appeared at a time
when preliminary decisions regard-
ing next year's economic plan pre-
sumably are being made.
This is the third year in a
row that public indications of re-
source allocation difficulties have
appeared at this time of the year.
In 1965 and 1966, defensive state-
ments by various Soviet leaders in-
dicated that certain economic goals
had to be moderated because of heavy
military claims. Those statements
implied that military interests
were being satisfied, but this
year's articles suggest that the
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military is less confident it will
get what it wants.
The articles imply that the re-
gime's emphasis on improving the
performance of the economy as a
whole may lead to neglect of mili-
tary production and of the military-
related aspects of the economy.
One writer asserted that the con-
temporary military-technical revolu-
tion was confronting the economy--
"and first of all, heavy industry"--
with a series of new requirements.
Another reiterated the old Stalin-
ist dogma that the Soviet economy
must be based on "preferential"
development of heavy industry,"
without adding the now-standard
qualification that light industry
also must be expanded.
Although these articles do not
identify specific issues, they do
suggest some of the subjects
troubling the military. Research
and development on new weapons sys-
tems is given continuing high
priority, yet the military also
wants general purpose forces capa-
ble of dealing with all forms of
military emergencies. Shortly af-
ter being appointed Warsaw Pact
commander, Marshal Yakubovskiy
stressed the undiminished impor-
tance of "classical" arms in the
nuclear age.
It is uncertain whether this
pressure will have any major im-
pact on the regime's economic pol-
icy. Leadership intentions are
probably not yet firm at this
stage in the annual planning cy-
cle, and decisions made now are
subject to adjustment later. The
Soviet military has again demon-
strated its ability to assert and
defend its economic interests,
however, and the regime may face
harder bargaining on this subject
in the future.
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WEST GERMAN ECONOMY IMPROVES
There are signs that the worst
may be over in West Germany's year-
old recession. Favorable economic
news is coming in just as the Bun-
destag has begun formal considera-
tion of Kiesinger's plans for deal-
ing with long-standing budget and
finance problems, and should help
him win parliamentary approval of
his proposals.
The most encouraging indication
that the recession may be coming
to an end is a recent rise in indus-
trial orders. Other favorable signs
include a drop in unemployment from
the seasonal high of nearly 700,000
in February to around 400,000 in
July, and a sharp rise in stock
prices in August. Business psy-
chology is believed to have improved
significantly, partly in response
to the government's moves to combat
the recession and spur new economic
activity. These indicators are
viewed as further evidence that the
German economy is fundamentally
sound and has favorable long-term
growth prospects.
A new factor working for eco-
nomic stability is a gradually in-
creasing acceptance of a more ac-
tive government role in regulat-
ing the business cycle. This new
view is reflected in the passage
last May of a law broadening
Bonn's powers to act promptly to
combat either inflation or defla-
tion and to promote economic
growth. Bonn lost no time in us-
ing its new pump-priming powers.
In mid-July the government an-
nounced a special $1.3-billion pub-
lic works program to stimulate the
economy.
Kiesinger's financial retrench-
ment program calls for increased
taxes and reduced expenditures be-
ginning next year. The government
hopes that the economy will have
recovered by then, but it is too
early to tell whether this optimism
is justified. Prompt passage of
the chancellor's program, however,
combined with an early and substan-
tial increase in business activity,
would be a major success for
Kiesinger, who has made economic
stability the touchstone of his
government's performance.
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA
High-level get-togethers again provided the focus
of political activity in the Middle East and Africa.
Arab diplomats returning from last week's "summit"
in Khartoum indicated they felt that the radicals who
pushed for a new military confrontation with Israel
had been isolated. Some Arab quarters were nonethe-
less concerned that the radicals might recover ground
unless a "political" line brings some early signs that
Israel will eventually withdraw from the occupied
territories. Both Arabs and Israelis are clearly brac-
ing for the forthcoming UN session, although the Is-
raelis insist that only direct negotiations can bring
a settlement.
In one Middle East area, "withdrawal" is already
the main theme. Both Saudi Arabians and Egyptians
now seem to think that the Nasir-Faysal agreement to
pull out of Yemen may work, although the sticky "de-
tails" as usual seem to have been left in abeyance.
Next door in South Arabia, a British withdrawal ap-
pears even more imminent, as the nationalist factions
struggle among themselves and what power there is
gravitates toward the local army.
The African meeting, in Kinshasa, has distracted
Congolese President Mobutu from his domestic diffi-
culties. One of his main concerns is to keep the Or-
ganization for African Unity (OAU) from meddling in
the still-unresolved mercenary problem. The Lagos
Nigerians similarly do not want their civil war
broached at the conference, although the "Biafrans"
reportedly hope to be noticed. Since the OAU will
not deal with the most pressing problems, it gives
the impression it is meeting for the sake of appear-
ances, and that the call of individual state inter-,
ests is, at least for the time, overcoming the at-
tractions of "African unity."
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ARAB SUMMIT CONFERENCE SOUNDS "MODERATE" NOTE
The Arab summit meeting ended'
on 1 September without developing
any specific new proposals for
ending the current Arab-Israeli
stalemate.
Nasir reportedly impressed
both Kings Husayn and Faysal with
his "realistic" attitude that a
"political struggle" with Israel
should be the Arabs foremost im-
mediate objective. Preliminary
moves in such a "struggle" appar-
ently involve rebuilding ties with
the West, and ultimately working
out a solution under the auspices
of the United Nations to avoid
negotiating directly with Israel.
coverage on the outcome of the
summit. The two major Western-
owned oil pipelines run through
Syria, and future problems prob-
ably are in store.
Israel has also expressed its
dissatisfaction with the results
of the Arab summit. Prime Minis-
ter Eshkol, in a statement on
3 September, scored the Arab heads
of state for their decision to
continue to refrain from direct
dealings with Israel, and said
that this strengthens his coun-
try's determination to resist
pressure to return to prewar con-
ditions.
The summit resolution to re-
sume the pumping of oil was ob-
tained by the major producing
countries in return for their
agreement to give financial aid
to the principal victims of the
Arab-Israeli war. The major pro-
ducers have since resumed ship-
ments to all takers. Under the
agreement, Jordan is slated to
receive $112 million annually from
Saudi Arabia, and Egypt was prom-
ised $266 million a year jointly
from Kuwait, Libya, and Saudi
Arabia.
A bow to radical sentiment
was contained in the summit reso-
lutions to "strengthen military
preparations to face all eventual-
ities," and to "expedite the elim-
ination-of foreign bases." Syrian
and Algerian discontent, however,
has been evident in their press
Tension along the cease-fire
lines, meanwhile, remains fairly
high. Early this week, a number
of fire fights broke out along
the Suez Canal and the Jordanian-
Israeli truce line, but in each
case the outbreaks seem to have
been the product of local condi-
tions rather than of any new mil-
itary initiatives from either
side.
Soviet Bloc - Arab Developments
A meeting of the deputy pre-
miers of Soviet bloc countries
was held in Belgrade from 4 to 6
September to discuss economic as-
sistance to the Arab states,
thereby giving the impression of
unanimity regarding aid to the
Arabs. According to Western press
sources, however, the Rumanians
delayed issuance of the joint
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communique for nearly one day by
their refusal to agree to a state-
ment branding Israel an aggressor.
When finally issued, the com-
munique merely indicated that the
representatives "exchanged opin-
ions" regarding measures to in-
tensify their aid.
Thus, it appears there are still
serious differences within the
Soviet bloc. concerning the scope
of their aid to the Arabs.
Page 15
Soviet Naval Activity
The current strength of the
Soviet Mediterranean squadron is
12 surface warships and at least
seven submarines, a total down
slightly from the high level
reached during the Middle East
crisis. Most of the units con-
tinue to operate in the eastern
Mediterranean to demonstrate sup-
port for Syria and Egypt.
A guided-missile cruiser,
a guided-missile frigate, and
three landing ships were replaced
in Egyptian ports during the past
week by a submarine tender, three
escort ships, and possibly two
submarines. Four naval auxil-
iaries remained in or near Port
Said. The guided-missile frigate
and the three landing craft are
expected to assume the patrol
station off the Syrian coast,
and the guided-missile cruiser
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WEEKLY SUMMARY 8 Sep 67
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BRITISH AGREE TO NEGOTIATE WITH SOUTH ARABIAN NATIONALISTS
UK High Commissioner Sir
Humphrey Trevelyan last weekend
obtained the British cabinet's
approval of his plan to open
negotiations with nationalist
groups for the formation of a
new South Arabian government.
This move represents an
abrupt change in British policy,
which previously held that ne-
gotiations should take place only
with all of the parties involved--
the National Liberation Front
(NLF), the Front for the Libera-
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2. HAUSHABI
3. ALAWI
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5. SHA'IB
6. UPPER YAFA'I
7. 'AUDHALI
B. DATHINAH
SECRET
Federation member
Approximate limit of local influence
Boundary recognized by the U.K.
Page 16 WEEKLY SUMMARY
tion of Occupied South Yemen
(FLOSY), the South Arabian Army,
and the traditional rulers of the
up-country sheikdoms.
When the British-backed fed-
eral government collapsed on
5 September, however, Trevelyan
concluded that the UK's main con-
cern was simply to get out of Aden
as quickly as possible in an or-
derly fashion and with a minimum
of losses. To accomplish this,
a government was needed to keep
order as the British troops were
withdrawn.
THE FEDERATION OF SOUTH ARABIA
SHIHR AND
MUKALLA
(QU'AITI)
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The high commissioner pre-
fers to negotiate with both the
NLF and FLOSY, but neither group
appears willing to cooperate with
the other in forming a new govern-
ment. He is convinced that the
NLF was supported by the majority
of the army and had the upper
hand in Aden and most of the up-
country sheikdoms. Thus, Treve-
lyan, following NLF chief Qahtan
al-Shaabi's announcement that
his group was prepared to dis-
cuss a transfer of power with
the British, dispatched an emis-
sary to the NLF leaders and went
to London to get his move ap-
proved.
Meanwhile, the NLF has
consolidated its position in the
central area of the Federation
and has assumed local administra-
tion. In the eastern and west-
ern areas, there have been
clashes between the NLF and
FLOSY, and neither seems to be
entirely in control.
In Aden, the NLF has the
upper hand, partly as a result
of the large number of weapons
they have captured in the federal
states.
on 7 September a FLOSY-
called strike appeared at least
initially successful. FLOSY
evidently intends to make an all-
out effort to show strength in
order to retain a voice after the
British leave.
The army has called upon
both the NLF and FLOSY to stop
fighting each other and accept
the British invitation to nego-
tiate. In fact, however, the
bulk of the army is reported to
back the NLF, and even to have
agreed to form a common front
against FLOSY and Egyptian inter-
ference. Even if FLOSY and the
NLF reach some accommodation,
blood feuds set off by the bit-
ter fighting over the last six
months militate against a smooth
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AFRICAN STATES MEET IN KINSHASA
Delegations from most of the
38 members of the Organization
of African Unity (OAU) are now
convened in Kinshasa as a prel-
ude to a "summit" next week.
Neither meeting is likely to pro-
duce anything new or startling.
There has been little en-
thusiasm for this ninth Council
of Ministers meeting from 4 to
9 September, or for the fourth
"summit" of African heads of
state from 11 to 14 September,
and several of the states actu-
ally wanted a postponement. The
fact that less than a dozen heads
of state--mostly lesser known
African leaders--plan to attend
the "summit," reflects the grow-
ing disinterest and discourage-
ment of many African states with
the OAU. The meetings might in
fact have been postponed had it
not been for President Mobutu.
Mobutu, anxious for a diplo-
matic boost and a show of Afri-
can support for his regime, has
long pushed for an OAU meeting
in the Congo. Having spent an
estimated $20 million for con-
vention facilities, he has been
trying to calm members' fears
for their safety, beating the
bushes hard to swell the ranks
at the "summit," and loudly ad-
vertising the hoped for attend-
ance of UN Secretary General
Thant. He has also probably
been privately praying that the
mercenaries in Bukavu will not
disrupt the conference.
There is a problem of what
to talk about. Most of the Afri-
can members want to avoid any
formal consideration of the recent
Arab-Israeli war, believing it
too divisive an issue, but the
more militant Arab members could
push for some discussion. The
conferees, bent on a show of
unity, will probably issue the
old reliable resolutions condemn-
ing Rhodesia, Portugal, and South
Africa. They may seize on the
recent flurry of southern African
nationalist action in Rhodesia
as a new sign of hope, however,
and vote more funds to the "free-
dom" fighters.
African disputes could take
up most of the time. Ivory Coast
and Guinea are still at logger-
heads over Ivory Coast's con-
tinuing detention of the Guinean
foreign minister. Somalia, in a
new tack, wants to use the meet-
ing to try to make some progress
on its border troubles with Kenya
and Ethiopia. As for the two
current hot crises in Africa, the
Congo (including the Tshombe af-
fair) and Nigeria, both Mobutu
and Gowon regard them as internal
matters. Mobutu, however, may
try to press for some commitment
by the OAU against the mercenaries
Gowan, on the other hand, is
likely to find himself hard put
to prevent some discussion of
Nigeria in the face of growing
African pressure to find some
way to end that crisis.
On the administrative side,
the term of the partisan, free-
wheeling Guinean secretary gen-
eral, Diallo Telli, is up. Having
irritated many members by his
tactics, Telli is under fire from
both the French- and English-
speaking west African states, and
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WESTERN HEMISPHERE
Security forces in three countries claimed vary-
ing degrees of success in their counterinsurgency op-
erations during the week. Probably the most striking
victory was scored by the Nicaraguan National Guard,
which appears to have severely crippled the rural guer-
rilla wing of a small pro-Castro terrorist group.
Mop-up operations are continuing. In Venezuela sev-
eral more urban terrorists were picked up in Caracas
following the government's highly successful roundup
during the previous week.
The Bolivian military reported it had lost only
one man while wiping out an insurgent "rear guard"
force of about eight persons. The victory, if con-
firmed, might slow Argentine military efforts to
arouse interest among Bolivia's other neighbors re-
garding contingency planning for possible future in-
tervention.
Other hemisphere governments were grappling with
less felicitous developments as the week ended. In
Peru, the immediate problem of the five-week-old
deadlock over the leadership of the Senate has now
been solved, but the political aftereffects and a
budding financial crisis threaten to pose even more
critical problems for the Belaunde government. In
Guyana, the coalition government of Prime Minister
Burnham and Minister of Finance D'Aguiar has entered
into another of its sporadic periods of shakiness--
a quarrel between the two men over a minor subminis-
terial appointment is again leading D'Aguiar to con-
sider resigning.
In the Dominican Republic, President Balaguer
reshuffled top military and police posts in the be-
lief that rightists, including the military follow-
ers of the exiled and controversial General Wessin,
were conspiring against him. Balaguer's houseclean-
ing may include some of his civilian advisers as
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NICARAGUAN GUARD DEALS HEAVY BLOW TO GUERRILLAS
The Nicaraguan National Guard,
in its month-long counterinsurgency
campaign, has severely crippled the
guerrilla arm of the pro-Castro San-
dinist National Liberation Front
(FSLN). At least 15 guerrillas have
already been killed, and the count
may be considerably higher because
the government is withholding infor-
mation on the continuing operation.
The guard has reported no casualties.
The campaign began on 12 August
in the region between Matagalpa and
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Caribbean
MEXICO Sea
NICARAGUA
Pacific OceanCOST
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Tegucigalpa
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Page 20 WEEKLY SUMMARY
Matiguas, north of the capital in
the Department of Matagalpa. The
guard's most effective tactical
unit--at times under the personal
command of President Somoza and his
half-brother Jose--destroyed the
FSLN guerrilla base almost immedi-
ately. On 26 August, a chance en-
counter resulted in the death of
12 guerrillas, and three more were
killed subsequently. Among the
casualties was Silvio Mayorga Del-
gado, an original FSLN leader and
the motivating force behind the
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urban terrorism tactics of the
group.
The guard has refused to de-
liver the bodies to relatives to
prevent government opponents from
extracting propaganda value from
funeral arrangements, and possibly
to forestall any charges of govern-
ment brutality occasioned by bullet-
ridden corpses. Public doubt gen-
erated by the absence of any wounded
guerrillas, plus a vague government
promise to locate mountain graves
at an unspecified date, may increase
sympathy for relatives of the dead
guerrillas. The eventual disposi-
tion of the bodies, therefore, may
be a difficult problem.
Carlos Fonseca Amador, the
FSLN's leader, is still at large
and reportedly is in command of an-
other guerrilla band of approxi-
mately 30 members, including two
or three Cubans and several women.
The government believes that track-
ing down Fonseca is vital to the
success of its counterinsurgency op-
eration. The guard has widened its
search to include the border area
between Zelaya and Chontales de-
partments.
The plight of the remaining
guerrillas is sorry. Farmers, ob-
viously influenced by the perform-
ance of the guard, are offering no
assistance to the guerrillas. They
are short of supplies and their
flight is hampered by heavy rains
that have muddied trails and swollen
waterways.
CHILEAN GOVERNMENT MOVES AGAINST THE RIGHT
A minor border incident between
Chile and Argentina last week has
afforded President Frei an opportu-
nity to crack down on the political
right.
The border incident, in which
Argentina asserted its rights in
waters claimed by Chile, is the lat-
est in a long-standing dispute re-
garding jurisdiction over navigation
and fishing rights in the Beagle
Channel of Tierra del Fuego. On
30 August the conservative National
Party (PN) issued a statement that
alleged government mishandling of
the Beagle incident and denounced
the state of preparedness of the
Chilean armed forces. The govern-
ment immediately arrested leaders
of the PN for violating the inter-
nal security law. Frei reportedly
was especially disturbed by what
he considered to be implicit en-
couragement for a military coup.
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Reaction to the government's
move indicates clearly that the po-
litical right in Chile has little
support. The Communist and Social-
ist parties have applauded the gov-
ernment's move, and there has been
relatively little critical comment
from the general public.
Frei has been under attack re-
cently for not providing more force-
ful leadership, either for his own
party or for the country as a whole.
He probably seized on the PN state-
ment as an opportunity to show that
he will not permit what he considers
irresponsible criticism. Last month
the government filed suits against
several extreme leftists who were
accused of making seditious state-
ments, but Frei does not seem pre-
pared to act against left-wing crit-
ics with the same dispatch used
against the right. Failure to do
so will make him vulnerable to the
charge that he is afraid of chal-
lenging the Communist and Socialist
parties, which command much greater
support than the PN.
POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION IN PARAGUAY
The role permitted opposition
parties in drafting the constitution
promulgated on 25 August has encour-
aged Paraguayan politicians to ex-
pect a continuation of the recent
trend toward political liberaliza-
tion.
The trend has been especially
noticeable since last February when
the outlawed Radical Liberal Party
was officially recognized and per-
mitted to contest the election for
delegates to the constitutional con-
vention. The election itself was
one of the cleanest in years, and
subsequent debates in the convention
were extensive, openly critical,
and yet far more responsible than
any in recent memory. The tradi-
tionally hostile Radical Liberals
took an active part in the proceed-
ings.
The new constitution is slightly
more liberal than the one it re-
places. Otherwise, its outstanding
feature is that it will permit
President Stroessner, who is serv-
ing his third consecutive term, to
run for re-election next year and
again in 1973. The new document
continues to place the majority
of power in the hands of the execu-
tive and gives him the right to
impose a state of siege--the sus-
pension of constitutional guaran-
tees--without legislative approval.
Paraguay has been under a state of
siege for most of the time since
1954, when Stroessner took office.
With the 1968 elections for
president and Congress now draw-
ing the attention of the country's
four political parties, it remains
to be seen how well this new pe-
riod of coexistence will last.
The Colorado Party's old guard
leadership is much less enthusi-
astic than the younger members
about permitting the opposition
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