AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00927A005900030002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 7, 1967
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2005/01/27 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO05 00030002-5
secret
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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
WEEKLY SUMMARY
Special Report
Agricultural Prospects in Communist Countries
Secret
N2 4 5
7 July 1967
No. 0297/67A
Approved For Release 2005/01/27 : CIA-RDP79-90927AO05900030002-5
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AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
Crop prospects in the Communist countries
as of mid-June were relatively good, with the
exception of North Vietnam. If the weather con-
tinues favorable during the summer, most of these
countries should have at least an average pro-
duction year.
In the USSR and Eastern Europe, grain pro-
duction probably will be above average but below
the record level of 1966. Although the current
outlook for the early grain harvest in Communist
China is favorable, prospects for late-harvested
crops are still uncertain. China will probably
import at least 5-6 million metric tons (MMT) of
grain from the free world, as it has in the past.
In North Vietnam, prospects are unfavorable for
the spring rice crop. A below-average area was
planted, and the harvest has been adversely af-
fected by numerous difficulties. Cuba has vir-
tually completed harvesting 6.1 MMT of sugar,
roughly 1.6 MMT more than the poor harvest in
1966.
The Soviet Union appears to
be heading into a good, but not
outstanding, agricultural year.
In general, total grain produc-
tion this year should be at least
average but well below the record
crop, estimated at 135-140 MMT,
produced last year. Livestock
products are expected to exceed
last year's record output.
A good winter wheat crop
will be harvested for the third
year in a row, but the outlook
for spring wheat is less promis-
ing. The area sown to this crop
is ten percent less than a year
ago. Good rainfall in late May
and early June has helped the
spring wheat crop appreciably,
but soil moisture reserves re-
main low in many important areas.
The USSR probably will not
need to import wheat during the
1967-68 trade year, other than the
3 MMT specified in the 1966-68
contract with Canada, because the
size of its reserve has increased.
Unrationed flour is available in
the stores, and if the harvests
go well, the USSR probably will
continue to be a net exporter of
grain again in 1967-68. So far,
there is no indication of how much
of Egypt's large import requirements
over the next 12 months will be met
by the USSR.
The development of most row
crops in the USSR is proceeding
normally. Part of the acreage
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sown to cotton has to be replanted,
however, because of unseasonably
cold weather during the first part
of June, which also damaged cer-
tain vegetable crops.
In the livestock sector,
prospects are excellent. Good
feed supplies and increased in-
centives for the farmers are prob-
ably promoting even greater ef-
forts in this area than before.
The state's procurement of live-
stock products is continuing at
a rate well above that of last
year, and increased supplies are
already available in the retail
outlets.
Eastern Europe
Crop prospects are at pres-
ent above average for the coun-
tries of Eastern Europe, includ-
ing Yugoslavia. In most coun-
tries, the outlook is equal to
or better than it was a year ago
at this time. The production of
breadgrains, particularly winter
wheat, is likely to match the
peak levels of 1966, and the out-
put of barley and oats will not
be far behind. It is still too
early, however, to forecast the
output of the important corn crop
in the Balkans.
Good soil moisture reserves
and frequent rainfall during the
spring are the main reasons for
the currently good outlook. In-
creased allocations of fertiliz-
ers, seed, and machinery, as
well as higher procurement prices
this year, are also having a bene-
ficial effect. There have been
no significant changes in the area
seeded to grain and row crops ex-
cept for a reduction in sugar
beet acreage.
East European imports of
grain during 1967-68 probably will
not exceed the reduced level of
7.2 MMT imported in the past 12
months, which were down from the
8.7 MMT imported in 1965-66.
Communist China
The outlook for winter grains
in Communist China is relatively
favorable, and the winter wheat
crop is expected to exceed the
poor harvest of a year ago. The
early rice crop has been affected
by the variable weather this
spring, and the amount of precip-
itation, during June will be cru-
cial to the final outcome. Sowing
plans for autumn-harvested crops
have already been set back some-
what by below-normal rainfall in
May.
The extent to which the un-
rest associated with the Cultural
Revolution has affected agricul-
tural production is not clear. The
available evidence suggests that
there has been no major disruption
of farm work in the countryside.
There are indications, however,
that work has suffered at some
of the state-managed produce farms
adjacent to major urban areas. Lo-
cal reductions in grain rations
accompanied by rising retail
prices, which have been noted
since the first of the year, are
probably attributable to the poor
autumn harvest last year rather
than to the Cultural Revolution.
Regardless of the size of
this year's total grain harvest,
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China will probably need to import
at least 5-6 MMT of grain from the
free world as it has in the past.
Good harvest prospects in all the
major wheat-exporting countries
indicate that China will have no
trouble lining up suppliers.
North Vietnam
In North Vietnam, prospects
are unfavorable for the spring
rice crop, which accounts for
about one third of the total rice
harvest. The area planted to
spring rice is below average and
the situation has been further
weakened by transplanting delays,
cold weather, air attacks, and
labor shortages. Some rice fields
have been planted with other crops
such as sweet potatoes, which are
a more reliable crop than rice
although less valued by Vietnamese
consumers.
The Cuban sugar cane harvest,
now virtually completed, will pro-
duce about 6.1 MMT of raw sugar,
about the same as in 1965 but 1.6
MMT more than last year. Good
weather was mainly responsible
for this success, although tech-
nical innovations also helped.
Substantial increases in the
production of coffee and rice are
expected this year over the 1966
levels of output. The 1967 to-
bacco, tuber, and corn crops are
estimated to be at about the same
levels as a year ago, as are the
major categories of livestock prod-
ucts.
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