WEEKLY SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00927A004900030001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 34
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 1
• Content Type: SUMMARY

~1 May 1965
OGI Noa Q29~f65
Copy No a
WEEKLY SUMMARY
CEI~I.TRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
State Dept. review completed
SECRET
GRDUP I Excluded from aukomatic'
downgrading and declassification
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''~ SECRET `~
(Information as of noon EDT, 20 May 1965
VIETNAM
Soviet surface-to-air missiles equi ment has apparently
arrived in Hanoi, as indicated by ~ photography of
the SAM site 15 miles south southeast of the city. Con-
struction continues at the other SAM site southwest of
Hanoi. Hanoi's fighter inventory also continues to grow,
and Moscow evidently has also provided new ground equip-
ment, There has been no authoritative Soviet commentary
on President Johnson's 13 May speech, but Peiping and
Hanoi have replied negatively, In South Vietnam, govern-
ment forces are attempting to retain the initiative in
the face of anticipated intensification of Viet Cong
operations during the rainy season, which now is begin-
ning.
THE COMMUNIST WORLD
USSR AGAIN TESTING WESTERN MARKETS
No major buying binge has occurred or is likely during
the next few months, but trade officials are indicating
that purchasing plans may be firmed up later this year,
perhaps in time for the fall chemical trade fair in
Moscow.
AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
Prospects for the winter grain crop range from relative-
ly poor in China to fair in the USSR and the Balkans and
excellent in northern East Europe. Grain imparts this
year are tentatively projected at 15 million tons.
SECRET
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~-'~ SECRET `"
THE CYPRUS DISPUTE
There has been a brief new outbreak of fighting on the
island, but negotiations are slowly developing between
Greece and Turkey despite the suspicion and criticism
of the Greek Cypriot leaders,
Page
9
INDIA AND PAKIS"Y'AN KEEPING POWDER DRY 11
The two governments are holding in place the troops
they have deployed on their borders, and British ef-
forts to arrange a cease-fire have again bogged down.
11^HE FOURTH AFRO-ASIAN SOLIDARITY CONFERENCE 12
meld in Ghana from 10 to 1G Niay, the Communist-dominated
meeting produced more vitriolic anti-US statements than
ever before, but was also the scene of bitter Sino-Soviet
wrangling,
THE ARAB - WEST GERMAN IMBROGLIO 13
Bonn finally established relations with Israel last
week, whereupon ten of the thirteen Arab League states
broke their formal relations with West Germany. How-
ever, the break may not be irrevocable, and none of the
Arab states seems likely to recognize East Germany soon.
ISRAEL AGAIN MOVES TO BLOCK ARAB WATER DIVERSION PROJECT 13
Last week Israel again shelled a Syrian construction
site, following its policy of taking actions short of
war to stanch Arab plans to divert the Jordan River's
headquarters.
SITUATION IN THE CONGO
Returns thus far from the still-incomplete national and
provincial election count indicate a clean sweep for
Premier Tshombe's party. This has increased the nervous-
ness of his political rival, President Kasavubu. The
rebellion in the northeast continues to falter,
15
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ASIA-AFRICA (continued
ETHIOPIA MOVING TOWARD FOREIGN POLICY SHIFT
The Emperor may soon try to divert pressures for inter-
nal reform by giving more content to Ethiopia's pro-
fessed nonalignment and possibly by recognizing Peiping.
EUROPE
FRANCE AT ODDS WITH OTHER EEC MEMBERS ON FINANCING
The current debate centers on the EEC Commission's ef-
fort to tie in future financing of the common agricul-
tural policy--in which France has a heavy stake--with
"supranational" reforms in the community structure.
ITALIAN RELATIONS WITH EASTERN EUROPE
The Italian Government, concerned that US preoccupation
with extra-European problems may reduce flexibility in
Western policy toward Eastern Europe, is about to initi-
ate a series of high-level official visits to the area
to improve relations. Business pressure for increased
trade is a major impetus to this policy.
SECRET
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EUROPE (continued) Page
NATO FOREIGN MINISTERS' CONFERENCE SKIRTS "REAL ISSUES" 20
Even the French adroit that this month's meeting of NATO
foreign ministers failed to discuss "real issues affect-
ing NATO" but they may further clarify their intentions
toward the alliance at the meeting of defense ministers
opening in Paris on 31 May.
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
SITUATION IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
The Imbert government has gained the military initiative
and substantially reduced tyre size of the rebel-controlled
area of Santo Domingo. Attempts to find a peaceful solu-
tion have been thwarted by rebel leader Caamano's refusal
to deal with Imbert and by the loyalists' reluctance to
consider a compromise in view of their military successes.
OAS efforts toward a truce have been somewhat undercut by
the arrival of a special UN mission.
BOLIVIAN JUNTA ENGAGES OPPONENTS
As one of its first firm steps to counter-its strongest
opponents and attack some of Bolivia's basic problems,
the junta deported pro-Communist labor leader Juan Lechin,
thereby setting off a general strike and violent protest
demonstrations.
ECUADOR'S JUNTA RIDES OUT ANOTHER CRISIS
A week-long strike by merchants in Guayaquil was accom-
panied by numerous plots by opportunist politicians and
ambitious military men seeking to take advantage of the
turmoil to unseat the military junta.
CASTRO REGIME MOVES AGAINST DISSIDENTS
The regime has arrested at least 100 persons in recent
weeks, including three US citizens, on charges of spy-
ing for the US.
SECRET
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SECRET
Soviet surface-to-a.ir mis-
sile (SAM) equipment has appar-
ently arrived in Hanoi. Analy-
sis of 0 photography of
the SAM site located 15 miles
south--southeast of Hanoi re-
veals that five of the six
launch revetments are covered
with protective material and
at least four of these appear
to contain missile-associated
equipment. The sixth revet-
ment is unoccupied. The cen-
tral guidance area and two of
the three missile-hold revet-
ments are also under protec-
tive covering. A possible mis-
sile transporter was sighted
at the third missile-hold re-
vetment, and six other groups
of unidentified equipment were
noted within the launch area.
Construction is continuing
at the second SAM site, 11 miles
southwest of Hanoi. At least
five of the revetments are in
various stages of construction
but no missile-associated equip-
ment has yet been noted there.
There are indications the
Soviets may be preparing to sup-
ply Hanoi with jet light bomb-
ers. Jet aircraft revetments
capable of housing bombers have
been constructed at several North
Vietnamese airfields. Reports
received last year stated that
North Vietnamese personnel had
received IL-28 training in the
USSR as early as 1962.
Hanoi's fighter inventory
continues to grow. Photography
revealed possibly as
many as MIG fighters--57 at
Phuc Yen and four at Haiphong/
Cat $i airfields, Construction
or improvement programs are un-
der way at seven fields in North
Vietnam, several of which would
probably be used as recovery or
dispersal bases in the event of
air attack.
The Soviets evidently have
d equipment.
recently saw
a ou armore cars parked
along the road to the Hanoi air-
port. His description suggests
they are Soviet BTR-40 armored
personnel carriers equipped with
twin antiaircraft machine guns.
Before this report North Vietnam
was believed already to have
about 100 pieces of armored
equipment, including same 40
T-34 medium tanks.
US Navy and Air Force air-
craft conducted strikes against
the DRV on only three days last
week, following the suspension
of air strikes from 13 to 17 May.
Results were generally good
against fixed targets, includ-
ing a naval base, POL storage
area, barracks area, and mili-
tary radio station. In addition,
a leaflet drop was carried out,
and a large number of day and
night armed reconnaissance mis-
sions were flown over roads and
rail lines south of the 20th
parallel.
SE CRE T
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SECRET
Military Action in
out etnam
South Vietnamese forces
have intensified their efforts
to retain the initiative in the
face of anticipated intensifica-
tion of Viet Cong operations
during the rainy season which
now is beginning. Army patrols
in Phuoc Long Province continue
to find evidence--297 bodies so
far--that heavy casualties were
inflicted on the multibattalion
Viet Cong force which attacked
the provincial capital of Song
Be on 11 May. Friendly losses
were also extensive, however.
An operation by .three gov-
ernment battalions against two
regular Viet Cong battalions in
the southern coastal province of
Bac Lieu resulted in a major
Communist defeat, reportedly
with 178 insurgents killed, 53
captured.. and 56 weapons seized.
Timely and effective air support
played a decisive role in both
the Phuoc Long and Bac Lieu
engagements. Successful govern-
ment operations were also con-
ducted in four other provinces.
The Viet Cong last week.
launched only two actions of
significance, an ambush and a
combined attack,/ambush.
Communist Political
Deve opments
There has been no authorita-
tive Soviet commentary on Presi-
dent Johnson's 13 May speech,
and ranking Soviet officials
still seem convinced that there
are no immediate prospects for
negotiations on Vietnam. For-
eign Minister Gromyko, in his
(talk with the French foreign
minister in Vienna, advanced
i no new thoughts on the situa-
tion. Premier Kosygin, in an
address on 15 May, again under-
lined the USSR's intention to
,strengthen North Vietnam's de-
fensive capabilities and asked
nonaligned countries to support
this policy.
Peiping, maintaining a
hard line, has branded the
President's renewed call for
negotiations a "discredited
hoax."
The Chinese have again at-
tacked the plan for easing the
Vietnam crisis put forward last
month by Indian President Radha-
krishnan, terming it a "pre-
posterous proposal" to fit the
"urgent needs" of the US.
Chinese propagandists con-
tinue to play up the possibility
of US air attacks on China it-
self. In denouncing the Presi-
dent's speech, People's Daily
argued that, since a I~omb-
ing of North Vietnam had failed
to bring about negotiations,
"Johnson now is attempting to
find a solution" by threatening
the Chinese people.
Such Chinese efforts to
whip up domestic support for re-
gime policies-have become no-
ticeably more intense. Besides
daily domestic radiobroadcasts--
begun on 4 May--and rallies in
Peiping, militia conferences
have been held in major cities
and most provinces. At these
meetings the need for stepped-
up training was tied directly
to the Vietnamese war. A cam-
paign has been launched to
SE ARE ~"
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~ SECRET err
encourage young people to take
up sports activities of poten-
tial military value, such as
rifle shooting, signal communi-
cations, and mountaineering.
Hanoi too responded nega-
tively to the President's
speech, and to the five day sus-
pension of air strikes. A For-
eign Ministry statement on 18
May called cessation of the air
raids a "trick'" designed to de-
ceive world public opinion about
the "so-called US good will for
peace" and to pave the way for
"new US acts of war." Only the
four-point proposal set forth
by Premier Pham Van Dong on 8
April, the statement concluded,
could serve as the basis for
settlement of the Vietnam ques-
tion. This proposal had re-
iterated IIanoi's standard de-
mands that US forces be with-
drawn from Vietnam, and the Viet
Cong's Liberation Front be al-
lowed to have a "decisive" role
in the settlement.
In a 15 May broadcast,
Hanoi also flatly rejected
Radhakrishnan's proposal for
negotiations, claiming that it
was aimed only at finding "a
way out" for the US in South
Vietnam. In a milder statement
on 7 May, Hanoi had merely com-
mented that the offer ran counter
to India's proper role as chair-
man of the International Control
Commission in Vietnam. Civil
defense activity in Hanoi con-
tinues to suggest a belief that
the air strikes will be extended
to targets farther north. Same
government agencies have already
been moved outside Hanoi, and
the evacuation of dependents of
foreign personnel appears to
have been largely completed.
A program is also under way to
establish more permanent air
raid shelter facilities.
Political Develol:ments
n out ietnam
Premier Quat has now
succeeded in carrying out mili-
tary command changes which,
together with the recent dis-
solution of the Armed Farces
Council, are designed to in-
crease civilian control over
the armed forces. The poten-
tially powerful High Command
headed by General "Little"
I4iinh has been abolished, and
Minh has been made chief of a
reconstituted Joint General
Staff subordinate to the De -
fense Ministry, which remains
under General Thieu. The mili-
tary, however, seem likely to
conta.nue to exert significant
political influence.
Quat reportedly still
plans a cabinet reshuffle, al-
though the changes may occur
on a piecemeal basis. He may
be having difficulties in en-
listing Catholic cooperation.
The majority of Catholics do
not seem willing to oppose the
government openly, although
they consider it Buddhist-in-
fluenced. On the Buddhist side,
the growing preoccupation of
monl'. Tri Quang with alleged
Catholic obstructionism and
plotting may foreshadow a new
period of Buddhist restive-
ness. ~
SE CRE T
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For the first time since French have ,just made the
the USSR began its extraordinary ~ first sale--a $10-million
grain purchases from the West in plant to produce composition
the fall of 1963, its trade rep- wall coverings--under last
resentatlves appear to be show- October's trade and credit
ing serious interest in Indus- arrangement with the USSR.
trial equipment and factories.
No major buying binge has oc-
curred or is likely during the
next few months, but trade of-
ficials are indicating that pur-
chasing plans may be firmed up
later this year, perhaps in
time for the fall chemical trade
fair in Moscow.
Some recent contracts re-
late to additional equipment
for installations purchased
earlier. An American firm, for
example, has sold $3 million
worth of equipment for mining
projects initiated several years
ago. On the other hand, the
Moscow remains reluctant,
however, to take on further
debt obligations. Relatively
large sums of credit offered
by the UK and France remain un-
used, as does the entire $65
million approved by Rome af-
ter considerable haggling last
year. Since long-term cred-
its became available a year
ago--largely at Soviet insist-
ence--credits worth only $140
million have been accepted.
In some cases, the USSR has
pleaded a lack of foreign ex-
change and said that deals for
importation of complete plants
cannot be concluded unless the
seller takes part of the plant's
production or other Soviet ex-
port goods as payment rather
than requiring cash.
Some foreign exchange will
be needed for grain purchases
this year, but the total will
probably be only about $150 mil-
lion--a quarter of last year's
outlay.
SECRET
Fage 5 WEEKLY SUMNtARY 21 May 65
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AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
As of mid-April, prospects
for the winter grain crop ranged
from relatively paor in Communist
China to fair in the USSR and the
Balkans and excellent in the
northern part of Eastern Europe.
The Communist countries will con-
tinue in 1965 to be net importers
of grain from the free world,
with total grain imports tenta-
tively projected at 15 million
tons.
In the Soviet Union crop
prospects as of mid-April ap-
peared relatively favorable al-
though not quite as promising as
they were at the same time in
1964. Soil -noisture conditions
were fair to excellent in almost
all of the most important agri-
cultural areas. Livestock prod-
ucts should be more plentiful
than in recent years because of
a much improved feed-livestock
ratio. Overfulfillment of pro-
curement plans for meat, milk,
and eggs in the first quarter of
1965 is a reflection of abundant
feed supplies produced in 1964.
south, but prospects in the
north appear excellent.
Poor prospects for winter
wheat in Communist China result
from a drop of about ten percent
in sown area and from continuous
wet weather. in North China which
delayed much of the planting.
It is still too early to deter-
mine the prospects for the early
rice crop. Soil moisture levels
appear to be favorable in most
parts of Central, East, and
Southwest China. In South China,
the country's major early rice
area, soil moisture conditions
appear normal for this time of
the year.
The Soviet Union this year
has already contracted for 3.2
million tons of wheat from the
free world, and the Communist
countries of Eastern Europe are
expected to impart 6 to 7 mil-
lion tons. China has already
contracted for about 4.5 million
tons
Soil moisture conditions in
Eastern Europe were generally
adequate and better than a year
ago. Winter wheat was adversely
affected by late seeding in the
SE CRE ~'
/ In 1964
China bought about 6.6 million
tons of grain from the West for
domestic use.
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Asia.-Africa
THE CYPRUS DISPUTE
Cypr~.is generally has been
quiet, but firing erupted briefly
between Greek and Turkish Cyp-
riots in the port city of Limas-
sol this week. The incident
followed an lncrea.se in communal
tension apparently caused by Tur-
kish Cypriot ~.nsistence+-against
the advice of Uri commanders on
Cyprus.--on continuing prepara-
tions for a parade in Lima.ssol
by armed fighters during Turkish
holiday festivities on 19 May.
Relations between Greece
a.nd Turkey were somewhat improved
as a result of direct contacts
between their foreign ministers
at the NATO Ministerial Confer-
ence in London last week. Neither
the Turkish idea of bilateral
negotiations under NATO auspices
nor the Greek suggestion for
talks under UN supervision was
adopted, but the two governments
agreed to continue conversations
through normal diplomatic chan-
nels.
Greek Cypriot newspapers,
which frequently reflect the
views of kresident Makarios,
have opposed the bilateral talks
and complained that efforts to
reach a solution have beon side-
tracked by NATO and should be
returned to the UN forum. In
public statements on his return
from a. recent visit to Athens,
President Makarios conceded that
the London discussions had eased
tension but said he opposed all
pressures for a. "spurious" solu-
tion, such a.s giving either
Greek or Cypriot territory to
Turkey in return for Turkey's
accepting Cyprus' union with
Greece.
SECRET
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25X1
India and Pakistan are hold-
ing in place the heavy concentra-
tions
of forces deployed along
their
borders.
Any incidents
could
quickly
revive the danger-
ously
charged
atmosphere of two
weeks
ago.
There is new concern on both
sides about possible air clashes.
Each government has accused the
other of sending reconnaissance
aircraft over its territory.
The possibility of uncon-
trolled incidents between ground
forces, on the other hand, seems
to have been slightly reduced.
Troops on both sides are begin-
ning to believe that there will
be no war and therefore are prob-
ably somewhat less trigger-happy.
Only limited progress has
been made by the British in
their efforts to formulate a
cease-fire agreement. With its
efforts bogged down amid quib-
bling by both sides, London has
been considering bluntly asking
Rawalpindi and New Delhi whether
they still want British ?ood
offices.
SE CRE T
25X1
25X1
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SECRET
THE FOURTH AFRO-ASIAN SOLIDARITY CONFERENCE
The fourth general confer- tervention." The conference af-
ence of the Communist-dominated , firmed the "legitimacy" of "revolu-
Afro-Asian People's Solidarity
Organization (AAPSO) , held in
Ghana from 10 to 16 May, was marked
by bitter Sino-Soviet infighting
and the most violent propaganda
attacks against the US ever to
come from this quarter. Initial
indications are that both Moscow
and Peiping scored certain suc-
cesses, but neither gained a clear
victory. Hopes of radical third-
world elements to inject new life
into the AAPSO apparatus appear to
have been largely frustrated.
Some 400 delegates from 70
countries and numerous observers
from various Communist fronts and
Cuba attended the conference,
which met at Winneba near Accra.
A considerable number of member
organizations, particularly the
more moderate ones, failed to par-
ticipate, thereby shrinking fur-
ther the base of this nongovern-
mental movement which the Commu-
nists inspired nine years ago.
The host Ghanaian regime became
more deeply involved in AAPSO than
it has ever been before, and
emerged with a place on the Cairo-
based permanent secretariat. Al-
geria's leadership was less strong
than previously; its delegation
was downgraded at the last minute,
possibly to avoid angering moder-
ate African governments due to
attend Bandung II in Algiers in
June.
The over-all thrust of the
meeting, revealed particularly in
a "Winneba Ieclaration" and in the
conference's general political res-
olution, was more intemperate and
more specifically anti-US than
ever. The US was repeatedly be-
labored as the chief source of
"imperialist aggression" and "in-
tionary violence" to counter "im-
perialist violence" and endorsed
individually a lengthy list of
"armed peoples struggles" in Af-
rica, Asia, and Latin America.
Although no serious outbreak
of Sino-Soviet polemics occurred in
public, the Chinese and Soviet camps
battled endlessly over a wide range
of issues in the closed committee
sessions. "Third World" leadership
on this occasion proved too feeble
to forestall a tendency for dele-
gations to divide on pro-Chinese or
pro-Soviet lines. The intensity
of the disputes, especially on pend-
ing memberships and other oganiza-
tional questions, prevented deci-
sions on many of the questions be-
fore the conference, and these now
have been bucked to the secretar-
iat or to the executive committee,
which is to meet in Guinea next
November. The aggressive tactics
pursued by the Chinese in these
wrangles appear to have irritated
at least some third-world dele-
gates and probably did little to
advance Peiping's efforts to ex-
clude Moscow from Afro-Asian gather-
ings.
The issue of Latin American
participation in AAPSO was again
finessed. Although the long-pro-
jected "three continents confer-
ence" was announced for Havana
next January, it apparently is to
be a separate operation. After a
confused hassle, Peiping was fi-
nally declared to have been chosen
as the site of the next AAPSO
plenary, two years hence. Moscow,
backed up by Egypt and India, can
be expected to continue to maneuver
for a change of venue.
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The establishment of West Ger- may be an Egyptian warning to King
man - Israeli diplomatic relations. Idris to get in line. Egyptian
on 13 May prompted ten of the thir- pressure has been exerted against
teen Arab League states to break Tunisia for some time, but Presi-
formal ties with Bonn, but Arab ~ dent Bourguiba has continued to
recognition of East Germany is not, ~ call for moderation and rational-
for the moment, in prospect, West I ity, and asked what good the break
German officials see in Arab will- would do the Palestinian refugees. 25x1
ingness to continue economic, cul-
tural, and consular relations a
hopeful sign that Germany's tradi-
tionally strong position in the
Middle East will not be impaired
for long, and that formal rela-
tions will be resumed in a few
months.
At the 1~ March meeting of
their foreign ministers, most of
the Arab states had committed them-
selves to severing relations with
Bonn if it recognized Israel. Iraq,
anxious to be in t}ie forefront,
broke on 12 May, and within a few
days Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia,
the UAR, Lebanon, Yemen, Algeria,
and the Sudan followed suit, Kuwait
canceled its agreement to exchange
ambassadors with Bonn.
Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya
refused to go along. The oil-
field sabotage in Libya last week
Neither Bonn nor Tel Aviv
has yet appointed an ambassador,
and it may be several weeks before
either does so.
licly that Bonn granted Israel a
security guarantee.
On 13 May Israeli artillery
shelled a Syrian construction site
in the second such attempt to in-
timidate Syria from proceeding with
the Arab project to divert the Jor-
dan River's headwaters. As on the
previous occasion in mid-March, the
Israelis first provoked a border
incident which gave them a pretext
for firing on the diversion work.
The place attacked in March
was close to the border and visi-
ble from Israel, and Syria sub-
sequently shifted its construction
activity away from the border and
out of sight. The physical damage
to the project in each case was
slight because work is still in
a very early stage. A Syrian was
killed on 17 March, however, and
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PROPOSED ARAB DIVERSION
PROJECT
Israeli shelling of Syrian work sites
Canal or conduit
i
i
i
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i
i
i
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ISRAEL
IJEAZ)
SFA
M~~EY
DESERT
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another was wounded in the latest
attack.
Israel evidently has chosen
not to wait to see how much water
the Arabs divert before taking ac-
tion. At the same time, the Is-
raelis apparently do not believe
they will have to go to war, at
least within the near future, to
protect their water interests. In
commenting on the most recent in-
cident, the chief of operations
of the Israeli Army indicated that
Israel's choice was not "between
resignation and war" but rather lay
within a wide range of military
and political actions which were
"not in the nature of war."
25X1
25X1
The dispute between Premier
Tshomb~ and President Kasavubu
seems to have been papered over
for the time being, but their basic
rivalry remains. Tshombd, whose
political strength grows as the
returns trickle in from the six-
week-long national and provincial
assembly elections, is apparently
waiting for Kasavubu to make the
next move. Kasavubu, meanwhile,
is becoming more nervous. Each
man's aavisers, as well as some
unemployed politicians, continue
to feed their feud, and are appar-
ently trying to force a showdown
between them.
Election returns indicate a
sweep for Conaco, Tshombe's na-
tional political coalition. With its
political allies, Conaco now claims
65 of the 120 assembly seats re-
ported thus far. A total of 166
seats are at stake. Although Kasa-
vubu's Abako party is the only one
to win a majority of a delegation
from any one province, it is seri-
ously split. Conaco's grouping
has won control of 8 of the 13
provincial assemblies for which
results are available. Eight prov-
inces are still to be heard from.
The rebellion meanwhile con-
tinues to falter, and government
clean-up operations in the north-
east are going fairly wel~
sE crET
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Pressures for reform in
Ethiopia have become more in-
tense recently, and the Emperor
may soon attempt to alleviate
them by diverting attention to
foreign policy. One result
may be recognition of Communist
China. At the least, the Ethi-
opian Government will probably
try to create a more nonaligned
image before the Afro-Asian Con-
ference scheduled to open in
Algiers on 29 June.
Fro-Western officials, in-
cluding the prime minister, have
recently told the US Embassy
that pressure is growing far a
major shift in Ethiopian policy.
The government's more radical
elements argue that other Afri-
can countries such as Guinea,
Egypt, and Somalia have bene-
fited materially from closer
relations with Communist coun-
tries, without losing Western
aid. These elements are said
to believe that the US could
not and would not react to a
shift toward nonalignment. Ac-
cording to the embassy, the Em-
peror may feel that such a move
might appease members of the
young elite in government and
university circles, who have
keen urging more rapid modern-
ization of the country. The
Emperor might also attempt to
divert the irritations of the
elite from himself by asserting
that it is US aid which has
failed rather than his regime.
the Council of Ministers now has
agreed to recognize Communist
China. The Chinese have offered
aid ii' recognition comes prior
to the Afro-Asian Conference.
The Emperor agreed aver a year
ago to "normalize" relations
with Communist China and has
several times given
the impression that recognition
would be accorded when it would
best serve Ethiopia's interests.
Meanwhile, according to
the Ethiopians, the Soviets are
pushing for acceptance of a
Soviet military assistance pro -
gram. Any military offer would
have special appeal at present
in view of
a current squeeze
on the Ethiopian Armed Forces
budget. Soviet deliveries to
Ethiopia's neighbor, Somalia,
is also a major factor. The
Emperor and other Ethiopian
officials insist that in a few
months the Somalis have received
more armor than Ethiopia has
received in a decade. Fears of
Somalia's intentions and mili-
tary prowess, although often
based on inadequate or incorrect
information, nonetheless color
Ethiopian thinking.
The Emperor is intensely
proud of the prestige his elder-
statesman-type leadership among
African states has brought to
Ethiopia, and he may believe
that a more nonaligned posture
for Ethiopia would increase
this influence. He has already
indicated that the US Army's
Kagnew communications center--
considered a "US military base"
by most Africans--is an increas-
ing political liability to him.
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Debate in the EEC Council
of Ministers oz. the c~mriission's
financing proposals has sharpened
the lines of conflict between
France and the other five on
the future development of the
community.
France termed "unnecessary
and premature" the proposals for
an independent community source
of revenue from customs receipts
a.nd rejected any gain in budget-
ary powers for the European Par-
liament. It strongly objected
as well to an EEC right of veto
over community subsidies far any
agricultural exports not in keep-
ing with community policy. The
commission's proposals were gen-
erally supported by the other
five--even though important dif-
ferences, some of them tactical,
remain among them--a.nd Italy
a.nd the Netherlands wish to go
even further in strengthening
the parliament.
The discussions thus appear
to have been an initial but by
no means conclusive success for
the commission's effort to tie
in the future financing of the
common agricultural policy (CAP)
--which must be agreed upon by
July, according to a council-
imposed deadline--with "supra-
national" reforms in the commu-
nity structure.
The commission was also over-
whelmingly supported last week
in a. European Parliament debate
on the financial regulations
by all the delegates except rep-
resentatives of the French Union
for the New Republic. The 1JS
Embassy in Paris has noted that
even in France considerable sup-
port exists for the commission's
proposals, although it questions
whether De Gaulle will be swayed
by such opinion.
Paris evidently intends to
try to avoid a.n outright test
of its community attitudes and
attempt instead to get an interim
financial arrangement safeguard-
ing its basic economic interest
in the CAP, The others might
agree to such a provisional ar-
rangement, but the Netherlands
is still insisting on "political"
concessions for accepting heavy
financial costs and Germany may
also prove to be tough on this
,issue. Should a.ny of the mem-
bers continue to back the com-
mission and the French refuse
to make concessions, community
;financing would in effect be
blocked.
Commissioner Mansholt has
taken the position that the fi-
nancing of agricultural support
would then revert to the national
governments--a particularly
heavy burden for France. He
ha.s hinted as well that the com-
munity's position on a. world-wide
grains agreement--which again
the French favor--would be un-
tenable without EEC decisions on
internal agricultural and
financing policies.
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ITALIAN RELATIONS WITH EASTERN EUROPE
Improving relations with
Eastern Europe is becoming a
main Italian foreign policy ob-
jective. Rome feels that recent
international events have danger-
ously slowed the process of East-
West detente. It is particularly
concerned that US preoccupation
with extra-European problems may
reduce flexibility in Western
policy toward the East European
states. A series of high-level
contacts is in prospect, with
President Saragat and Foreign
Minister Fanfani scheduled to
visit Poland, and Fanfani, prob-
ably accompanied by Premier Moro,
to go to Yugoslavia.
Recently, in his first major
foreign policy speech, Fanfani
cited as signs of improving re-
lations last month's signing of
technical cooperation agreements
with Czechoslovakia and Rumania
along with a cultural-agreement
with Poland, and he pointed to
Italian-Yugoslav cooperation as
a model of peaceful coexistence.
He argued that an increase in
trade, including orders for com-
plete industrial plants, might
be stimulated if Italy could of-
fer East Europeans easier credit.
The major impetus for greater
trade with Eastern Europe comes
of course from businessmen, and
the number of exchange visits be-
tween Italian and East European
commercial delegations has
markedly increased. Trade with
Eastern Europe, however, is only
a little over three percent of
Italy's total world trade. Ex-
ports to most East European
countries were up slightly in
1964, but imports generally de-
clined as the Italians sought to
bring trade with the area more
nearly into balance. Rorne has
held the line on long-term cred-
its except for an $8-million
guaranteed ten-year credit made
available to Czechoslovakia in
1964.
Italy has long-term trade
agreements with all the Eastern
European countries, including
Albania. Among these countries,
Rumania, Poland, Hungary, and
Czechoslovakia in that order, are
its most important trading part-
ners. Yugoslavia's importance
is likely to increase. Italy
also signed a cultural agree-
ment with Albania in March under
which Tirana is seeking some
Italian technical assistance.
A significant recent devel-
opment is the increasing interest
of Yugoslavia, Poland, and Ru-
mania in establishing production
and marketing arrangements with
Italy which would facilitate
sales of their products in third
countries, including those be-
longing to the Common Market.
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SECRET
The NATO foreign ministers
who have returned from their con-
ference in London are generally
relieved that an acrimonious
French-US exchange was avoided,
but more concerned than ever at
the deep divergencies the meet-
ing did nothing to resolve. Ac-
cording to a senior official of
the French Foreign Ministry, the
French delegation was "well
pleased in the circumstances"
with its relations with the US
delegation in London, but Paris
is fully aware that "none of the
real issues affecting NATO" had
even been discussed there,
Several such issues--par-
ticularly the differences over
nuclear strategy which have
prevented any real progress in
the NATO Force Planning Exer-
cise (NFPE) for two years--are
scheduled for further airing
at a meeting of NATO's defense
ministers in Paris from 31 May
to 2 June. It is questionable,
however, that the ministers
will be able to agree even to
continue the NFPE effort in or-
der to come up with acceptable
force goals for 1965-1970.
France still insists that exist-
ing strategic guidance--which
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provides for immediate massive
nuclear retaliation against any
enemy attack--must not be changed.
Moreover, the French defense min-
ister may simply say that the
problem of force goals is not
relevant since De Gaulle consid-
ers NATO "no longer responsive
to its defense mission."
alliance.
The Paris meeting may there-
fore serve to clarify France's
ultimate intentions toward the
the French are studying various
aspects of their NATO relations
and the effects on France if
it pulls out of NATO
Western Hemisphere
The Imbert government in the
Dominican Republic has gained
the military initiative and sub-
stantially reduced the size of
the rebel-controlled area of
Santo Domingo, US military
forces, augmented by the recent
arrival of some 400 Latin Ameri-
can troops, continue to guard the
neutralized areas of the city and
are targets of sporadic sniper
fire. Attempts to find a politi-
cal solution to the 27-day-old
crisis have thus far been thwarted
by rebel leader Caamano's refusal
to deal directly with Imbert and
most recently by the loyalists'
reluctance to consider a compro-
mise formula in view of their
recent military successes. Ef-
forts by the Organization of
American States to achieve a
peaceful solution have also been
somewhat undercut by the arrival
of a special UN mission.
Forces loyal to Imbert's
Government of National Recon-
struction took the military ini-
tiative on 13 May in Santo Do-
mingo's northern industrial sec-
tor, which is separated from the
main rebel-controlled area by
the US-held corridor. Loyalist
army and air force troops, sup-
ported by tanks and artillery
forces from General Wessin's
axmored units, drove eastward
until they gained control of
the city's factory area and the
main broadcasting facilities of
Radio Santo Domingo, which had
been an important weapon in the
rebels' hands until loyalist
forces blasted it off the air
earlier in the week.
The loyalists' military
successes have made pro-Imbert
leaders increasingly outspoken
in their opposition to a compro-
mise political solution and in-
creasingly truculent concerning
US political pressures. A 19
May broadcast on the Dominican
Armed Forces Radio San Isidro
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`.Polo
Fields
650516
4'!552
~l ~,~.... ~~!17ET
Hotel ~ _ ~
EI Einbajador
{ar~t.,,II
idly
SANTO DOMINGO
~~/(?ANAMA
n 13L0.ND5
u g~
Principal Rebel-Held Area
Rebel-Infiltrated Area
-??- International boundary
' "' Provincia boundary
? Netlonal capital
o Provlncia capital
t~ Rallroatl
Roatl
0 20 40 Miles
0 2fi q~0 Kilometer,
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`"~ SECRET ~
openly ckias~tised those outside
"advisers who feel they have
the authority to guide our in-
ternal affairs."
There has been a correspond-
ing deterioration in the morale
of the rebel forces. While some
elements remain in the city's
northern sector, the rebels now
for the most part are confined
to the same downtown Santa Do-
mingo area from which they began
their operations late last month,
While there are indications some
of tkietn would like to abandon the
fight and seek a compromise po-
litical solution, a hard-core
group--which probably includes
most of the rebel leaders--is
defiantly holding out for a set-
tlement clearly favoring the
rebel cause.
Rebel gloom may well have
deepened with the killing on 19
May of a key leader, Lt. Col,
Rafael Fernandez Dominguez, who
was leading a probing attack on
the loyalist-held presidential
palace. He was the Caamano "re-
gime's" minister of the interior.
One or more leaders of the pro-
Castro 14th of June Political
Group--one of the three Dominican
Communist parties--was also
killed during the attack. Caamano
lost no time in charging publicly
that Fernandez Daminguez and the
others had been "assassinated
from behind" by US troops. The
rebels probably hope such charges
will inflame public opinion
against the US and stiffen
rebel resistance.
Reports from various points
in the Dominican interior con-
tinue ~to describe local condi-
tions as calm but uneasy. For
the most part, the populace re-
mains confused and disoriented
about the rival "governments" in
the capital and is awaiting a
clear sign of which will emerge
as the victor before offering
allegiance. Food supplies re-
main critically short in some
areas desY?ite US emergency re-
lief measures, and unemployment
is a worsening problen- in a few
localities. Police and army
garrisons throughout the country-
side are in complete control of
their areas of jurisdiction, al-
though roadblocks and checkpoints
to prevent arms smuggling are in
evidence.
From his safe haven in
Puerto Rico, ex-president Juan
Bosch--whom rebel leaders con-
tinue to regard as the "spiritual
father" of the revolt--still pur-
ports to be their chief spokes-
man. Throughout the crisis his
role has been somewhat ambiva-
lent, and his statements have
ranged from the relatively mild
to the caustic. True to form,
Bosch has displayed a high de-
gree of naivetd about the nature
and direction of the rebel move-
ment; this appears at least par-
tially due to his reliance for
information on the rebel leaders
in Santo Domingo, with whom he
is in frequent telephone contact.
Despite the rebels' persist-
ent claims that "six or more"
countries are about to extend
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SECRET
diplomatic recognition, no
foreign government has yet
done so. The rebels continue
to appeal for such action, how-
ever.
UN action to stop the
fighting in the Dominican Re-
public has involved both ef-
forts at Security Council ses-
sions in New York and Secretary
General Thant's dispatch of a
special mission, headed by Jose
Mayobre, chief of the UN Eco-
nomic Commission for Latin Amer-
ica. Mayobre, a personal friend
of Bosch, has impressed US Em-
bassy officials as predisposed
to favor the rebels, and his
early reports to Thant appear
to bear this out.
Meanwhile, members of the
Organization of American States
are increasingly dismayed by
the orga nization's inability to
stop the fighting between the
contending L>ominican forces.
The five-nation special OAS
peace commission, :aturned from
Santo Domingo to Washington on
17 May after viewing with deep
resentment the UN intervention
in the situation. In a 19 May meet-
ing, the cammission recommended
that a special OAS representative
be empowered to go to Santo Do-
mingo and attempt to mediate be-
tween the rival governments. Al-
though no one has yet been desig-
nated,former president Jose
Figueres of Costa Rica is ru-
mored to be a likely selection.
Progress in farming the In-
ter-American Armed Force in ac-
cordance with an earlier deci-
sion of the OAS is continuing,
with some 400 troops from Costa
Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua
already on hand in Santo Domingo.
Units from Brazil and possibly
other countries are expected
shortly. Details on how the
force is to be used have not
yet been fully decided, how-
ever.
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Bolivia's junta president
Barrientos has taken his first
firm steps to counter his strong-
est opponents and to attack some
of the country's basic problems.
In doing so, however, he has in-
curred the most serious crisis
of his six-month rule.
Faced with an imminent
series of politically inspired
strikes, the junta seized the
initiative by arresting and
deporting pro-Communist labor
leader Juan Lechin on 15 May.
At the same time, government
security forces were put on
alert in anticipation of labor
disturbances. Lechin 's labor
organizations, the Bolivian
Workers Central and the Mine
Workers Federation, responded
promptly to the government ac-
tion by calling for a general
strike and protest demonstra-
tions.
Violent demonstrations
took place. in La Paz on 17 May
but were broken up by police
and armed forces units. This
was the first time that army
troops have been used against
civilians since the junta took
power last November. As of the
morning of 20 May, no other
serious demonstrations had oc-
curred, mainly because of gov-
ernment concessions to labor
and student leaders and preven-
tive armed patrols by police and
military.
Although the junta has dealt
firmly with the agitators thus
far, there is growing evidence
of dissension and lack of coordi-
nation in the government. Bar-
rientos has indicated that var-
ious concessions on his part have
been necessary to keep the sup-
port of armed forces commander
General Ovando, army commander
La Fuente and Minister of Defense
Suarez.
Most political and student
leaders, who up to now have re-
mained passive in the crisis, are
likely to move into active oppo-
sition should any sign of govern-
ment weakness become apparent.
A general strike of minersb
printers, and factory, bank, and
construction workers remains in
effect.- Leftist-extremist-led
labor resistance to the govern-
ment probably has been intensified
by the junta crackdown. Recent
government decrees have ordered a
nationwide state of siege and mo-
bilization of army troops and ci-
vilians,and have declared all la-
bor union posts vacant. The far
left must react strongly to these
measures if it is not to lose
prestige and following.
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ECUADOR'S JUNTA RIDES
The military junta in
Ecuador appears to have weath-
ered another challenge to its
authority,this time a merchants'
strike in Guayaquil which lasted
throughout the week of 10 May in
protest against a new tariff
schedule on imports.
During a week rife with ru-
mors of plots by opportunist pol-
iticians and even by ambitious
military men to exploit this sit-
uation, the junta demonstrated
determination to remain in power.
Martial law was imposed in Guaya-
quil and freedom of expression
was suspended. A plot involving
a few air force officers was bro-
ken, the arms cache of the ter-
rorist Detachments of Secret Or-
ganization was seized, and dis-
sident political elements, in-
cluding former president Arose-
mena, were neutralized. The
armed forces appear to have drawn
together behind the junta, put-
ting aside at least for the mo-
ment discussions of bringing
about a change in the government.
To cope with the Guayaquil crisis,
tYie government even withdrew
troops from the sensitive Peru-
vian border area.
The strike settlement pro-
vided for creation of a special
commission chaired by the minis-
ter of finance which will hear
the views of the merchants and
consider revision of the new
OUT ANOTHER CRISIS
tariff law. Meanwhile, goods
in the customs houses may be
removed at the old rates, al-
though the new rates finally
agreed upon will apply retro-
actively. After putting on an
impressive show of force, the
government made its concessions
from strength rather than from
weakness, and the Guayaquil in-
terests were denied the type of
victory they gained last October
when they protested earlier tax
reforms.
Ecuador's economic situation,
especially in the coastal area,
has deteriorated badly this year,
largely because of a decline
in exports of bananas--ins chief
crop. The new tariff schedules
reflect an IMF recommendation,
and are aimed at discouraging
luxury imports, thereby helping
close a serious foreign exchange
gap resulting from the fall in
banana exports while imports
remained at a high level.
Although the junta has sur-
vived possibly the greatest dan-
ger to its position in two years,
the factors which have threatened
stability are still-present. Most
political factions have joined a
new "front" to work against the
government and on behalf of an
early transition to civilian rule.
Their success,as always in Ecuador,
will depend upon the junta's
ability to preserve relative unity
within the armed forces.
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SECRET
CASTRO REGIME MOVES AGAINST DISSIDENTS
The Castro regime has made
scores of arrests in the past
few weeks, charging the victims
with syping for the US. These
arrests and the resulting trials,
which ma.y bring sentences of up
to 30 years, serve a.s a. stiff
warning to others in Cuba. who are
not in harmony with the regime.
They also supply convenient sub-
ject matter for continuing strong
propaganda attacks against the
US.
The Cuban Department of
State Security arrested 53 Bap-
tist ministers and lay officials
in western Cuba on 8 April. A
63-yeas -old US missionary and
his son-in-law, also a US citi-
zen, were arrested as Leaders
of the alleged spy ring. The
Southern Baptist denomination is
one of the largest and probably
the most cohesive of Protestant
groups in Cuba.. Its 10,000-mem-
ber congregation apparently is
solidy opposed to the Castro
government and staunchly resists
the regime's encroachments a.nd
conformist pressures. Other
Protestant, denominations, which
usually are more zealously op-
posed to the regime than the
Catholic Church, may also soon
become targets of Castro's se-
curity forces. The government
in the past ha.s on occasion
sharply curbed the activities
of certain evangelical sects.
In late April, the regime
arrested eight people in Cama -
guey Province. This group al-
legedly was supplying the US
with information on troop move-
ments a.s well as economic infor-
mation. Seven others were ar-
rested in Havana. on 2 May far
spying, according to a regime
announcement. Havana radio an-
nounced on 12 Ma.y that 31 addi-
tional counterrevolutionaries
in Camaguey Province had been
arrested on charges of belong-
ing to yet another espionage net.
This group is said to have sent
secret military and economic
information to the US via the
US Naval Base a.t Guantana.mo Bay.
In addition to the two US
Baptist missionaries, another
US citizen who has run a farm
in Cuba. for several years was
arrested on charges of espionage
in early May. All three prob-
ably will receive lengthy prison
sentences. The death penalty has
also been exacted in one re-
cent case, that of a Cuban cus-
toms official executed for "col-
la.borating with the enemy.:'
SE CRE T
Page 27 WEEKLY SUMMARY 21 May 65
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